Developments in the French market

8th FrenchConnect - Lille 23 March 2011

Ralph Anker Editor anna.aero [email protected] Overview of presentation 2010

• What’s happened in Europe since last year? • Size of European LCCs • European ‘big5’ country markets • What’s happening in ? – Airport growth in 2010 (and 2011 so far) – Regional airport characteristics – Country market trends 2011 v 2010 – Domestic market analysis (fares and traffic stimulation) – New French routes • Jan-Dec 2010 • Started / announced in 2011 • Conclusions

2 Developments in Europe 2009

• Lufthansa completes acquisition of Austrian, bmi, • and merge to create ‘new’ Vueling • Aegean and Olympic merging to create ‘new’ Olympic • BA/ merger to be approved shortly? • ‘New’ now growing (/KLM have share) • , MyAir.com and SkyEurope collapsed • Heathrow’s third runway plans axed: BA disappointed • LCCs, airBaltic and Turkish Airlines growing networks

3 Developments in Europe 2010

• Lots of airlines made money despite rising fuel costs! • Icelandic ash cloud caused problems in April • Various countries affected by industrial action – strikes – ATC strikes – General strikes • BA and Iberia merged to create IAG  • Aegean and Olympic did not merge  • No major airline failures – Just a few niche carriers such as Athens Airways, Andalus Lineas Aereas, Blue Wings, Hamburg International, Star1

4

LCCs still growing in 2010

pax up 11% to 72.7 million pax up 8% to 49.7 million pax up 21% to 13.0 million pax up 35% to 11.0 million pax up 23% to 9.6 million pax up 8% to 8.0 million

Top 5 European airlines in 2010 (by passengers): 1 – (72.7m) 2 – Lufthansa (56.6m) 3 – easyJet (49.7m) 4 – Air France (47.0m) 5 – airberlin (33.6m) 5

Comparison across Europe Versus Germany, , and UK (2010)

Country Airport pax % vly >1m* UK 213.7m -3.4% 21 Spain 192.7m +2.7% 23 Germany 190.7m +4.7% 19 France** 143.4m +1.2% 15 Italy 139.6m +7.0% 23

*Number of airports with more than 1 million annual passengers **Includes Basle-Mulhouse (BSL) airport. Excluding BSL, Italy would now be ahead of France (139.3m)

Source: UK CAA, ADV, Aena, www.aeroport.fr, Assaeroporti

6 7 8 Largest French Airports: LCC impact

Airport Pax:10 % vly LCC:10 LCC% LCC “growth” 1 Nice 9.60m -2.3% 2.94m 31% -6.2% 2 Lyon 7.98m +3.4% 1.47m 18% +10.2% 3 Marseille 7.52m +3.2% 1.74m 23% -4.3% 4 Toulouse 6.41m +2.0% 1.21m 19% +13.5% 5 Basel-Mulhouse 4.13m +7.1% 1.96m 47% +8.8% 6 Bordeaux 3.66m +10.3% 0.76m 21% +56.9% 7 Nantes 3.03m +14.4% 0.65m 21% +69.1% 8 Beauvais 2.93m +13.1% 2.93m 100% +13.1% 9 Montpellier 1.18m -3.7% 0.28m 24% +1.8% 10 Lille 1.17m +2.0% 0.23m 20% +5.3% Source: www.aeroport.fr

Paris CDG 58.17m +0.4% 4.80m 8% +3.8% Paris ORY 25.20m +0.4% 5.84m 23% +7.4%

9 Source: OAG Max Online for w/c 1 August 2011

10 `

Source: OAG Max Online for w/c 1 August 2011

11 12 `

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Source: OAG Max Online for w/c 1 August 2011

13 Fares analysis

• anna.aero fare analysis conducted in October 2010 • Examined leading domestic city-pairs in 7 countries where ‘legacy’ carriers competed with regional and/or LCCs – France: Paris - Toulouse – Germany: Berlin - Munich – Italy: - – Norway: Oslo - Bergen – Spain: Barcelona - – Sweden: Stockholm - Gothenburg – UK: London – Glasgow • Day return fare data collected – Travel that week, and travel in February 2011 14 15 16 17 18 New French airport services Started operating between 1 January and 31 December 2010

Airport Routes Airlines included 1 Paris CDG 21 Air France, , Alitalia, easyJet, Vueling 2 Paris Beauvais 20 Ryanair, 3 Marseille 17 Armavia, Air Transat, City Line Swiss, Ryanair, Spanair, .com 4 Paris Orly 15 Air Europa, Air France, easyJet, Iberia, OpenSkies, Transavia.com, Vueling 5 Lyon 11 easyJet, , Transavia.com 6 Bordeaux 10 Cimber Sterling, easyJet, Eastern Airways, Flybe, jet4you, Ryanair 7 Nice 9 , Cimber Sterling, easyJet, Estonian Air, germanwings, niki, , Tarom 8 Toulouse 8 Air France, easyJet, Eastern Airways 9 Nantes 7 Air France, easyJet, Flybe, RAM, Transavia.com 10= Lille 5 , Chalair, Ryanair 10= Limoges 5 Flybe, Ryanair

19 New French airport routes Started operating between 1 January and 31 December 2010

• Total of 171 new routes involving 36 French airports and 42 airlines • Leading airlines: – Ryanair 50 new routes; average 2.9 weekly flights (145) – easyJet 38 new routes; average 4.9 weekly flights (186) – Flybe 12 new routes; average 3.3 weekly flights (40) • Leading country markets (38 countries got new routes) – UK 31 new routes – France 30 new routes – Spain 21 new routes – Italy 18 new routes – 12 new routes

20 New French routes 2011 Short-haul services of particular note

• Air France new routes from Paris CDG – Cologne/Bonn started in January, Billund starts end of March • CityJet launching routes to Pau (Ryanair pulls out) – Three destinations: London City, , • easyJet starting Toulouse – Nantes • Flybe adding more routes from Southampton – Beziers, Clermont-Ferrand and Pau all new in summer • Ryanair adding several routes from Paris Beauvais – Including Beziers, Brindisi, Lamezia Terme, Parma and Turin • Vueling’s new base in Toulouse from April 2011 – Eight destinations including Nice

21 Conclusions

• Rising fuel prices will reduce airline profitability in 2011

• Many new routes from biggest LCCs are being launched at very low frequency (less than daily) often seasonally

• easyJet and Ryanair account for just over 50% of all new routes started in France in 2010 (88/171)

• Paris airports (BVA, CDG, ORY) account for only 30% of new routes (56/171), same as last year

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