Savills World Research
World Residential Markets Performance and Prospects | 2015 – 2016 2015
Foreword World Residential Markets
Where next for global property investment? Executive summary We assess the performance and prospects of residential markets across the world
esidential real estate determine the directions of markets Global residential property markets markets are, by but, overlaying these macro-level are driven by population growth, definition, local, issues are a series of cultural, policy economic growth and wealth rooted to the earth in and even psychological factors like a particular time and the reputation of some jurisdictions See pages 04/05 Rplace. Most are not traded globally as ‘Safe havens’ which can make like gold, commodities, equities and an enormous difference to how they bonds although there are global perform, especially in the short term. forces at work on them and shaping their future. Location by location Success in buying homes or Our location by location commentary Prime city and ‘retreat’ markets residential property investments on pages 20-49 covers the local abroad therefore depends on news and considerations relevant to are shaped by globally understanding which forces are local residential investment markets in 27 mobile individuals and which more universal. different places around the globe. They See pages 06/07 This new publication contains reveal some very different approaches information on a wide range of in different jurisdictions to residential popularly invested residential real property issues, ranging from golden estate markets around the world. They visas to cooling measures, for range from small, top-end resorts example. through well-known regions to major This approach of national trends world cities. While they are unusual in overlain by local and policy issues Successful future investment will attracting significant amounts of cross- has enabled us to form a robust view be in secondary property, border money, they are all subject to on where the different markets may second-tier cities and resorts underlying demand and supply factors be headed in future. As most of the which govern the way that markets markets we cover are prime city or See pages 08/09 move worldwide. prime and ‘second home’ resort, The challenge for this publication we have also taken a view on how was to identify these basic factors they may differ from the nation’s which all markets have in common. mainstream housing market. These This publication The exercise meant that we have been prognoses, a mixture of empirical This document was published in September 2015. The data used in the charts and tables is able to put to one side the issues with analysis and qualitative evaluation, Prime markets in world cities are priced the latest available at the time of going to press. Sources are included for all the charts. We have which local commentators may be are outlined on pages 10-11. n at a high plateau. Other locations may used a standard set of notes and abbreviations throughout the document. currently fixated and instead focus on the basic, longer-term market drivers offer better value for money Savills plc which are relevant to all markets. Yolande Barnes See pages 14/15 Savills is a leading global real estate service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. The three metrics that we identified World Research The company established in 1855, has a rich heritage with unrivalled growth. as having the greatest fundamental 020 7409 8899 It is a company that leads rather than follows, and now has over 600 offices and associates influence on housing markets generally [email protected] throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East. are detailed on pages 4-5. They @Yolande_Barnes This report is for general informative purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or quoted Favourable market conditions and in part or in whole, nor may it be used as a basis for any contract, prospectus, agreement or other “Success in residential property investment growth potential can be found in document without prior consent. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills the USA and parts of Europe accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. The content abroad depends on understanding which is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without forces are local and which more universal” See pages 16/17 written permission from Savills Research.
savills.co.uk/research 03 World Residential Markets 2015
Contents
MARKET OVERVIEW Prime Market Dynamics Investment Strategy Value Comparisons Forecasts
06 10 12 16 18
Which markets have seen the end to Who’s buying where around the world. International investors will do well to How do the prime price points Savills World Residential Investability the boom and bust cycle and which look outside of the prime markets in compare in residential markets Ranking. ones never busted? major cities that have been top of their across the globe? shopping lists for the past six years. We suggest some alternatives.
EUROPE NORTH AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST asia pacific OUTLOOK
20 32 40 44 50
United Kingdom, France, Spain, USA, Caribbean. South Africa, United Arab Emirates. Hong Kong, Singapore, China, Investors are seeking opportunities in Portugal, Italy, Switzerland. Australia. more peripheral locations and higher yielding secondary property as an alternative to first-tier cities.
04 savills.com/research 05 World Residential Markets 2015
Market Overview why housing markets Housing market experiences differ across the globe around the world
There are four ways that global real estate markets have behaved since 1985. We have divided national housing markets into four main groups: Which markets have seen the end cross the world and point out that the way these variables through the ages, the play out on the ground and at Boom-busters to the boom and bust cycle and single fundamental different times is extremely complex Stabilisers which ones never busted? driver of residential and results in a wide variety of Deflators property demand market behaviours. High-risers hasA always been the number of The combined effect of economic households in a population wanting performance and recessionary Different demographic, a roof over their head. The price of cycles, inflation and fiscal regimes, economic, and supply side Words: Yolande Barnes those roofs is then a function of the demographic changes, the availability factors have played out in Twitter: @Yolande_Barnes number of properties and the amount and cost of finance as well as land different countries – with of money available with which supply politics, policies and planning, extremely varied results. households can compete for them. not to mention cultural, legal and Scandinavia: home of the high risers Translated into global investment tenure norms means that housing FIGURE 2 property, this means the following markets behave in very different ways The Boom-busters real house prices three factors will make for house price across the globe. 1. THE Boom-busters growth in excess of general inflation: Understanding and navigating n Denmark n France n Ireland n Italy n Netherlands n Spain n Growing population this complexity is a formidable 200 n Growing affluence task for any investor in their home These markets are the ones that n Limited land and/or housing supply environment, let alone on the global often get most attention. All of The absence of one of these variables stage. This document is designed to them have seen property values can stall a housing market and the provide the key information needed fall since 2007, some of them very 150 absence of two or more can send to understand a wide variety of world substantially. For two countries property values downward. residential markets and then to home (the Netherlands and Ireland) real Having boiled the global housing in on a few of the most internationally- property values fell back to the level market down to just these three invested markets in cities and resorts they last saw at the Millennium. 100 variables: demographic, economic for a deeper look and prognosis on They have started to recover but and supply-side, it is important to how they might behave in future. real, inflation-adjusted, values are still well below their former peak. Index (Q4 1999 = 100) France, having recovered in real 50 FIGURE 1 terms almost to peak levels after Real (inflation adjusted) house price experiences around the world 1985 – 2015 2008, has since double-dipped and n Pre 2000 n Post 2000 is still below peak, though not as 0 New Zealand substantially as Spain, Italy and Global Housing Market the Netherlands. Australia 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Performance Canada Three of the Boom-busters (Italy, Source: OECD Figure 1 shows just how Sweden France and Spain) saw similar real differently housing markets price rises and falls in the previous Norway have behaved over the last 30 market cycle of the late 1980s FIGURE 3 France years. It shows average house Characteristics of the Boom-busters Great Britain and early 1990s. It is interesting price movements in different to note, however, that Denmark, Belgium countries, adjusted for just one the Netherlands and Ireland were Switzerland Geography: Eurozone of many external variables that previously much less volatile than Finland impact them, namely, inflation. they were in the last economic cycle. Monetary/lending/fiscal policy pre recession: Loose Denmark It shows that there were an Spain GDP growth: Below average Decelerating enormous range of experiences Italy in different housing markets Median household income (average): Lower side of average £30,198 USA before the Global Financial Netherlands crisis of 2008, and there has Monetary/lending/fiscal policy post recession: Tight Ireland been an equally enormous 93% Germany Population growth rates: Mixed but tending to accelerate variety of experiences since. Japan Real house price growth Housing delivery before peak: High -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% in Spain, 2000-2007
Source: Savills Research, OECD Source: Savills World Research
06 savills.com/research 07 World Residential Markets 2015
FIGURE 4 FIGURE 6 2. THE Stabilisers The Stabilisers, real house prices 3. THE Deflators The Deflators, real house prices n Germany n Japan n Switzerland n Belgium n Finland n Great Britain n USA 250 The Stabilisers are a mixed group that 250 Deflators are countries that have seen cover a range of circumstances and continued and consistent house price illustrate how different circumstances falls in real terms, and sometimes 200 200 and different policies, ranging from in nominal terms too. The defining loose credit but strong economic characteristic of the most pronounced recovery to consistently more stable deflators, Germany and Japan are 150 150 and consistent lending environment significantly below-average or even have enabled countries to get back, falling rates of population growth 100 or remain on a more even keel. 100 which are continuing to decelerate. Index (Q4 1999 = 100) Two countries seem to have been Index (Q4 1999 = 100) Switzerland’s population growth is permanently stable, though not high decelerating – and forecast to start 50 rising, since 2000 while some are 50 falling in future years. seeing a repeat of boom-bust and Against this, (perhaps surprisingly) recovery seen in the 1980s and 1990s. rates of GDP growth have been 0 The UK and the USA looked like 0 below-average compared to the other Boom-busters a few years ago but countries under study here and median 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 have been saved by population growth Source: OECD household incomes are only average Source: OECD and economic recovery, particularly in when cost of living adjusted. major growth-cities. Switzerland clearly looks different Finland suffered only a small dip FIGURE 5 to Germany and Japan as housing FIGURE 7 but recovered and has flat-lined in real Characteristics of the Stabilisers has grown in value from its very Characteristics of the Deflators terms since 2010. Belgium did not dip depressed millennial levels – but has but, since 2008, has also plateaued. Geography: Anglophone & Scandinavian still not regained its 1980s peak. Falling Geography: Germany, Switzerland, Japan In the USA price falls were long lived. population will continue to depress Only a pronounced economic recovery Monetary/lending/fiscal policy pre recession: Loose in UK & USA Firm in Finland & Denmark mainstream property values but, in Monetary/lending/fiscal policy pre recession: Firm to very tight and significant inflation-adjusted uplift Alpine areas, overseas buyer demand GDP growth: Below Average Decelerating in residential property values since GDP growth: Average to above-average Stable and constrained supply is likely to
2012 stops it remaining in the Boom- Median household income (average): Average £34,130 boost value growth. Median household income (average): Average £34,078 buster basket. Specific markets within the deflator The UK’s pre 2007 boom was more Monetary/lending/fiscal policy post recession: Firm to very tight countries are very capable of bucking Monetary/lending/fiscal policy post recession: Loosening pronounced but subsequent falls were the downward trend. Tech industry Population growth rates: Mixed but tending to decelerate Population growth rates: Well below average Decelerating shorter-lived. The market as a whole growth and inward migration to Berlin has stabilised rather than recovered Housing delivery before peak Low or mixed means values are more likely to rise Housing delivery before peak: High Decelerating but the average performances of both there while the rise of tourist and the UK and USA disguise significant leisure resorts in Asia could boost recovery in key cities. Source: Savills World Research Japan’s ski resorts, for example. Source: Savills World Research
FIGURE 8 FIGURE 9 The High-risers, real house prices 4. THE High-risers high by international standards n Australia n Canada n New Zealand n Norway n Sweden and economic growth has been high Characteristics of the High-risers 250 and stable or accelerating. Supply conditions vary from country to Geography: Commonwealth and Scandinavia For homeowners in many parts of country and location to location 200 Europe and the USA, it is difficult to but key cities are frequently Monetary/lending/fiscal policy pre recession: Firm imagine there are some countries that experiencing demand at a rate GDP growth: Above average Stable or accelerating either didn’t see or soon recovered unmatched by supply. 150 from the effects of the debt crisis in The polar differences between Median household income (average): High £45,080 2008 and whose housing markets these high risers and the deflators have continued to grow and now show how critical the combination Monetary/lending/fiscal policy post recession: Firm 100 stand higher than they did in 2007, of demand and supply drivers and Population growth rates: Above average
Index (Q4 1999 = 100) sometimes substantially higher. They policy responses can be. The high- are all either in the Commonwealth risers show the key success factors Housing delivery before peak Average to high 50 (Canada, Australia, New Zealand) that investors need to look out for in or Scandinavia (Norway, Sweden). high-performing markets: growing Source: Savills World Research In all these countries, the three population, growing affluence and 0 main drivers of house price growth the constraints on urban growth that have continued driving. Population many developed countries, and a “Specific markets within the deflator countries 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 growth rates are high and stable or large number of emerging ones, are are very capable of bucking the downward trend” Source: OECD accelerating, household incomes are now prey to. n
08 savills.com/research 09 World Residential Markets 2015
Prime Market Dynamics hile mainstream or buying additional homes for residential business or leisure purposes. Buyer flows shape global markets are London, New York, Hong Kong driven by and Singapore are the most globally “London, New York, domestic buyers, invested, while the Chinese are emerging residential markets prime W city and ‘retreat’ residential as the most important source market for Hong Kong and Singapore markets are shaped by globally global real estate, with capital channelled are the most globally invested” mobile individuals relocating via Hong Kong and Singapore. n Who’s buying where around the world
Figure 10 The major international buyer flows shaping prime residential markets
Key World City - highly globally invested russia Key World City - regionally invested, some global investment canada Moscow
Key buyer flow UK Russian investment Vancouver weakening
USA Beijing Chicago New York Istanbul San Francisco Seoul china Los Angeles Middle east Tokyo (INDIA) Shanghai Cairo via (CHINA/HONG KONG) Miami INDIA via Mexico City Abu Dhabi/Dubai Hong Kong Mumbai caribbean
Lagos scandinavia Singapore & GERMANY Nairobi Ireland UK Berlin Jakarta London brazil belgium, nl
Paris
alps Rio de Janeiro Australia Milan South africa
Tuscany Riviera & Cape Town Sydney Monaco Barcelona Madrid Lisbon Balearics
Algarve Marbella
Source: Savills World Research
10 savills.com/research 11 World Residential Markets 2015 Investment Strategy
opened up between prime and secondary real estate and how it is major trends for particularly pronounced in markets where there is the biggest differences in purchasing power between cash- international investors rich prime investors and borrowing- reliant or renter-occupied secondary markets. The effect of this is most marked in the most globalised residential markets but seems to result in more expensive property for the wealthy, not for all occupiers. International investors will do hat strategies The focus on first-tier cities and on Hong Kong is a very good example do international the prime, central locations of these of this, where typical prime prices well to look outside of the prime investors need cities has partly been a result of global are ten times the level of secondary markets in major cities that have to adopt to take urbanisation and the focus by people or Paris where wealthier owners are advantage of the of the world on city living. In Asia, the paying eight times the price that been top of their shopping Wway the world is going? We pick top cities are very often the only places administrative employees would pay lists for the past six years. We three major trends that we think will where grade A investable new stock for their accommodation in the city. be important for the next decade can be found. In European, American By contrast, New York, other US suggest some alternatives. or so. and other ‘old world’ developed cities and Sydney, where all purchasers n The rise of secondary cities though, the choice of stock are generally more domestic in origin, n Growth of second-tier cities is less limited but still investment is the multiple of prime property to n Rise of resorts concentrated in the more prominent mainstream is much lower – meaning Words: Yolande Barnes and best-known sectors. These have that property is equally expensive for Twitter: @Yolande_Barnes Prime or secondary? very often been considered as ‘safe both CEOs and administrative workers. In the world of global real estate havens’ for capital. investing, the prime residential Looking at the handful of most- Mainstream to prime ratio markets in first-tier cities around the invested international cities, it is also Figure 12 shows which world cities globe have taken the brunt of buyer noticeable that cross-border wealth show the greatest differences in interest for the last decade or so. and other investment has been price between their prime markets The growing importance of private concentrated in the prime core, rather (occupied by CEOs and directors) wealth in the sector, particularly after than the equally investable secondary and secondary markets (occupied
2008, has meant that capital has stock of more outlying districts and by admin and other staff). It shows Cross border wealth and other investment has been concentrated in the prime core of first-tier cities been concentrated beyond the realm lower grade buildings. Sometimes that those where the difference is of institutional, commercial property it is a result of investor psychology, greatest are not necessarily the most owners. This means it has increasingly sticking to the famous or familiar, expensive markets in US $ terms FIGURE 12 been focused on residential but it particularly in new and unfamiliar (although Hong Kong is). It also shows Prime and secondary values has still landed in many of the same marketplaces. In other cases though, it that some cities have secondary locations previously favoured by the directly reflects the lending policies of markets that are very expensive Prime values as Secondary values Mainstream to corporate investor. many financial institutions which help by international comparison (e.g. Global city a multiple of the as a multiple of the prime ratio fund, finance or gear the purchases of Singapore and New York) even cheapest city cheapest city private individuals. This re-imposes the though their prime markets are not. Hong Kong 10 7.5 5.0 FIGURE 11 corporate view on the private investor. Broadly, in the more domestically Prime residential property growth in four world cities The impact of this seems to have invested markets of the USA, Paris 8 2.8 2.4 n London n New York n Hong Kong n Singapore been to push prime prices significantly Japan and Australia, prime property Dubai 7 2.2 2.0 250 higher than mainstream property looks relatively cheap compared prices in certain cities. Residential to secondary, while in the more Shanghai 7 2.6 2.4 property price growth in major global internationally invested markets of 200 cities illustrates very well what has Hong Kong, Paris, Dubai, London and London 7 4.4 4.2 happened to prime real estate in the Singapore, secondary property looks most sought-after urban centres. relatively cheap compared to prime. Singapore 5 3.0 4.2 150 Between 2005 and 2014, price growth So, have the prime real estate Tokyo 4 2.2 3.4 for prime residential properties was markets in global cities lost their lustre? high, averaging a total of 67% across Are we at a peak and facing New York 4 2.3 4.2 100 all our studied world cities. This growth further price falls in some markets Index (2005 = 100) compares with 50% for ‘mainstream’ or are values at a high plateau Sydney 3 1.5 3.1 properties in the same cities. whence they will stabilise or grow San Francisco 3 1.5 3.3 50 In the most heavily invested cities like slowly for a while? In either case, Hong Kong, London and Singapore, are there alternatives which will Los Angeles 3 1.1 3.0 the effect has been even more extreme. outperform in coming years? 0 In these key cities, growth has reached While a resumption of substantial Chicago 2 1.0 2.9 up to 140% in prime markets within the prime real estate price rises in global Miami 2 1.0 3.0 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 05 10 year period. cities cannot be ruled out (a continued Source: Savills World Research This illustrates how a gap has flight of ultra wealth capital to these Source: Savills World Research
12 savills.com/research 13 World Residential Markets 2015
Sanya city, Hainan Province, China ‘safe haven’ assets could cause such Even if property is owner-occupied will become more heavily invested We have noticed, for example, The leisure industry in Asia is an outcome), the probability of this and not let, we consider that and may very well outperform prime in other research projects that nascent at present but its future can happening is diminishing in the face of yields are a good indication of the markets as capital values respond some small cities have performed perhaps be glimpsed in experimental several factors. underlying value of these assets. If accordingly and yields move in. particularly well in the creative and PRC projects like Hainan Island, the First, many of the global ultra- they cannot be let to occupiers at digital economies as they offer growing regional interest in Balinese wealthy are fully invested in these an economic rent (one that yields a Second-tier city uplift alternative living and working styles and Phuket properties and the rising “The leisure industry in trophy assets; second, prime suitable premium over bonds), and For those scanning global property to this highly productive and newly number of Asian skiers enjoying Asia is nascent and fast world city assets looked fully there is no immediate prospect of markets for alternative asset classes, wealthy sector. Japanese resorts like Niseko. priced against historic levels; third, significant rental growth, then it is we have identified opportunities in We anticipate that residential growing. It will yield new prime yields in many cities are at more likely that capital values are second-tier cities and resort locations The rise of resorts investment in the best of these an all-time low in many places being driven by speculative investors – for different reasons. Leisure resorts and retreats, both as emerging locations, as well as ones, investment opportunities – and near the level of ‘risk-free’ seeking uplift rather than occupiers One argument for investment in an investment class and as locations not yet conceived, will show strong in regional resorts” government bonds. seeking value. The use of speculative second-tier cities is similar to that for residential investment, also look capital and income returns. n Finally, there are potentially capital by purchasers tends to make for secondary locations in first-tier interesting. This is partly because higher-yielding, lower-price markets more volatile so this puts cities, namely higher income returns. post-2008 price corrections make purchases with higher potential those markets at greater risk of Adding to this lure is the prospect some established resorts look cheap Figure 14 capital growth upside to be made. inflationary bubbles. for some small cities to economically but also because there are new Ageing global population: growth of over 65s These could be in other types of We see that where higher income outperform as they rise in the global opportunities on the horizon. n Africa n Asia n Europe n Latin America & the Caribbean n North America n Oceania property, other locations and returns are available in secondary hierarchy, experience regeneration, There are two timescales of 1,600,000 other cities. markets that these non-core markets reconstruction or renaissance. opportunity here. For established resorts with recovering prospects, 1,400,000 Forecast there are buying opportunities now FIGURE 13 and in this publication we have 1,200,000 covered some key examples, like the Cross-sector comparisons: Gross yields as at December 2014 1,000,000 Algarve, Marbella, and Caribbean. Residential Offices Longer term opportunities arise in 10 yr govt. 800,000 Global city bonds Asia and other fast-developing areas, Prime Mainstream Finance Creative including South America. The growth 600,000 of wealth in emerging economies, London 3.2% 4.2% 3.3% 4.8% 1.9% Population, thousands particularly Asia, and the ageing of 400,000 New York 5.4% 5.9% 4.4% 4.3% 2.3% these populations means that there 200,000 are increasing numbers of people Hong Kong 1.8% 3.4% 2.5% 3.1% 1.7% who will be experiencing leisure 0 Singapore 3.0% 4.4% 3.4% 3.5% 2.6% time, holidays and the prospect of a relatively prosperous retirement in 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: Savills World Research, Eurostat the near future. Source: World Bank
14 savills.com/research 15 World Residential Markets 2015 Value Comparisons
space-constrained city. Geneva also Figure 15 starts to rival the top-tier cities on a City market typical prices: prime two bed apartment The World Residential floor space basis, for similar reasons. Some of the world’s top resorts n USD price n USD psft
rival the world cities on a cost $5,000,000 $4,500 Price League per square foot basis. Prime, four bedroom villas in the Swiss Alps and $4,500,000 $4,000 in the French Riviera are currently $4,000,000 $3,500 more expensive than apartments in $3,500,000 Paris, Singapore and New York on a $3,000 dollars per square foot basis. $3,000,000 $2,500 The Swiss Alps is the most $2,500,000 How do the prime price points he price of prime unit ($2.5m). Other top-tier world cities expensive location in which to buy $2,000 residential property Singapore ($2.3m), New York ($2.1m) a ‘retreat’ or leisure property. A four $2,000,000 compare in residential markets $1,500 varies across world and Shanghai ($2.0m) round off the bed chalet here has a typical price $1,500,000
markets. In global cities, top six most expensive cities globally, of $4.5m. The Riviera follows at $1,000 foot price per square Typical across the globe? $1,000,000
the typical price of a costing more than $2m per unit. $3.75m for a well located (but not price - prime 2 bed apartment Typical primeT resale (rather than super Dubai heads the second tranche of super-prime) villa property. Property $500,000 $500 prime) apartment ranges from cities costing $1m to $2m per property. here is currently costly on a US dollar $- $- $450,000 in Cape Town to ten times In this city, prime two bed apartments per square foot basis ($1,650psft) Paris Milan Dubai Miami
as much in Hong Kong at $4.5m. stand at $1.9m, but on a square foot and reflects the prevalence of more Venice Lisbon Madrid Sydney London Geneva Shanghai New York
The size of that apartment varies basis just $800psft. This reflects compact properties in this highly Singapore Cape Town Hong Kong Los Angeles
significantly so there is a difference the large, newly built properties that desirable location. The prime San Francisco of 15 times in the cost per square characterise this market. Good value Algarve comes in third, at just over foot between small-space Hong can also be found in Milan, Sydney, $3m but is much cheaper by area Source: Savills World Research Kong and expansive Cape Town. Venice and Los Angeles where large as typical villas are much larger Hong Kong stands apart as the most space standards push the cost per than in the Alps or Riviera. Other expensive city location, on both per square foot below $650. By contrast, prime second home markets are square foot and cost per unit. It is 61% San Francisco’s typical prime two bed relatively close in pricing points, more expensive per square foot than price point may only be $1.35m, but ranging from $2.1m in Barbados, its nearest rival, London. Hong Kong smaller space standards mean it is to Tuscany & Umbria ($1.5m) and $4.5m $4.5m is 45% more expensive per London much more expensive on a per square St Kitts & Nevis ($1.3m) at the Average value of a prime Average value of a prime Prime residential property unit ($3.1m) and 55% more per Paris foot basis, topping $1,000psft in this lower end. n in Hong Kong is ten times the 2 bed apartment 4 bed villa/apartment price of mainstream property in Hong Kong in the Swiss Alps
Figure 16 Resort market typical prices: prime four bed villa/chalet
n USD price n USD psft
$5,000,000 $2,000
$4,500,000 $1,800
$4,000,000 $1,600
$3,500,000 $1,400
$3,000,000 $1,200
$2,500,000 $1,000
$2,000,000 $800
$1,500,000 $600 Typical price per square foot price per square Typical $1,000,000 $400 Typical price - prime 4 bed villa/chalet Typical $500,000 $200
$0 $0 Ibiza Riviera Mallorca Barbados Swiss Alps Prime Algarve St Kitts & Nevis Cayman Islands Tuscany & Umbria Tuscany Marbella (inc. Sotogrande) Source: Savills World Research
16 savills.com/research 17 World Residential Markets 2015 Forecasts ■ Very favourable to housing prices Modest falls High growth ■ Favourable to housing prices Falls Growth Savills World Residential ■ Neutral Substantial falls Some growth Investability Ranking ■ Unfavourable to housing prices ■ Very unfavourable to housing prices Little or no growth
FIGURE 17 FIGURE 18
igure 17 shows the countries in INVESTABILITY VARIABLE 5-year which our selected world markets Recent 5-year Country Markets prognosis for operate and how we see various 5-year price growth Investability Countries Population growth Wealth Economic Growth Housing prognosis market* prime-city and second-home for country* Rank GDP Supply Prices relative markets performing within them. Recent Forecast Recent Forecast Los Angeles per head levels to cycle FWe have looked at key demand variables (population growth, wealth and economic Miami growth) alongside supply and price levels in order 1 USA to see which countries are set to perform best. New York We have then considered the second-home and San Francisco prime-city markets, covered in this publication. 2 United Arab Emirates We looked at each place and how they will Dubai perform relative to their country and in view of the cultural sentiment and policy considerations Singapore at work in those markets at present. 3 Singapore This enabled us to come up with an overall London ranking and prognosis for five year growth, ranging from ‘Substantial’ to ‘Little or no’ growth. 4 United Kingdom Balearics This prognosis is based on a model of household Marbella wealth, economic growth, demand and supply balance set against a whole range of tax, policy, 5 Spain Madrid market-cycle and other factors. In some cases, the prospects for the specific Barbados investment markets under scrutiny in this publication, look better than for the country as 6 Caribbean Cayman Islands a whole due to the international nature of the market and more diverse range of buyers who St Kitts & Nevis bring greater purchasing power to bear than Australia 7 Sydney domestic buyers in more local markets. Portugal and Switzerland are good examples of these Algarve markets where low and slowing population 8 Portugal growth limits domestic demand but where low Lisbon supply levels and strong international demand for Alpine homes (Switzerland) or overseas Milan demand and discounted prices (Portugal) makes 9 Italy purchase prices look attractive and improves Tuscany & Umbria prospects for growth. The likely top performers are those which 10 France Venice have seen strong population growth of an French Alps affluent population which is likely to continue. Future performance of other markets will be 11 China French Riviera limited by relatively high prices (compared internationally and/or in relation to historic trends) Paris and limited or declining population growth. n 12 Hong Kong Shanghai
Hong Kong
13 South Africa Cape Town Likely top performers are those Geneva 14 Switzerland which have seen strong population Swiss Alps growth of an affluent population Source: Savills World Research *For capital values in second homes & prime markets Source: Savills World Research *for capital values in second homes & prime markets
18 savills.com/research 19 World Residential Markets 2015
Prime London property is regarded as a safe haven
EUROPE UNITED KINGDOM
The UK is in a phase of sustained economic recovery. With the UK general election now passed, greater political certainty Unemployment continues to fall (it is among the lowest in the EU) has gone some way to restore the fundamentals of demand in the and in 2014 GDP grew by its fastest rate since 2007. Low interest prime markets – underpinned by a low interest rate environment rates, coupled with a national shortage of new homes have fuelled and growing domestic and international wealth generation. Buyers n Although originating in the USA, the (UK and Switzerland) but increasing price rises, particularly in London and the south east of the country. and sellers who had adopted a 'wait and see approach' are active North Atlantic debt crisis has been numbers of buyers are being attracted again, secure in the knowledge that a ‘mansion tax’ is off the table, amplified in Europe by the subsequent by cheap prices and stabilising The prime residential UK market was one of two halves in but the market has not seen a marked bounce-back. Prime London severe impacts on housing markets. economies into some markets. 2014. The improving economy and positive sentiment from the property has emerged from a prolonged bull run and now looks mainstream market helped drive demand in the first half of the fully priced and fully taxed. As a consequence the medium term n This presents a dilemma for n Performance will be highly year. An average price increase of 4.9% was recorded in the prime outlook remains muted. investors, with euro-denominated dependent on economic performance markets of London and 3.1% outside the capital. But momentum assets appearing cheap by in future, not just entry price. was lost over the summer and prices remained flat in the final six The mainstream markets meanwhile have been impacted by international standards but currency Careful attention therefore needs months of 2014, with small falls in prime London. Much of this was regulation on mortgage lending, but low interest rates coupled with and economic risk weighs against to be paid to economic forecasts down to changes to the stamp duty regime and uncertainty ahead a fundamental lack of supply across much of the country means this lure. and the prospects of population of the UK general election. that prices have maintained an upward trajectory. growth and other demand factors in n It is telling that some of the more specific jurisdictions and cities, even buoyant international markets in neighbourhoods, if the gems are to be recent years have been non-euro sifted from the rocks. n expansion of tech and in turn demand the medium term. This will impact London from occupiers seeking homes within affordability. Investors may take walking distance of their workplace. heed in London’s mainstream rental The safe haven credentials of Turning to the mainstream markets, markets, which will continue to benefit London real estate are well price growth of 14.9% was recorded from a strong occupier demand. n rehearsed. Politically stable, in 2014. Some 10.6% of this growth offering security of tenure and an came in the first six months of 2014 advantageous time zone, London alone, according to Land Registry is a cosmopolitan city with global data. The latter part of the year saw a appeal. Investors have long been cooling of the market, a trend which attracted to the best residential has continued into 2015. London’s 14.9% and commercial assets, with an mainstream markets will have to bear 2014 mainstream eye to capital growth and/or the the burden of ongoing mortgage storage of wealth. But London is market regulation, coupled with London price growth first and foremost a centre of global the prospect of interest rate rises in business, and over 85% of prime buyers live and work in London, even if many of them originate figure 19 from overseas. UK market performance 2006-2015 London’s prime markets n n n outperformed those of the rest of England & Wales - transactions England & Wales - prices London - prices the country in the years following 180 the global financial crisis. But by 1,400,000 Regional economic statistics and trend the second half of 2014 and into 170 2015, prime markets were slowed 1,200,000 160 GDP GROWTH UNEMPLOYMENT INTEREST Country by changes to stamp duty and pre RATE 2014 RATE BASE RATE election uncertainty which resulted in 150 1,000,000 a lack of urgency among buyers. UK 140 2.6% 5.6% 0.5% Prime central London housing 800,000 markets, including areas such as 130 FRANCE 0.4% 10.3% 0.05% 600,000 Mayfair, Knightsbridge and Kensington, 120 were particularly impacted by the 110 SPAIN 1.4% 22.4% 0.05% increased stamp duty charges and 400,000 Price index (Jan 06 = 100)
the threat of mansion tax, and sellers 100 (12 month total) Transactions PORTUGAL 0.9% 13.2% 0.05% had to factor in price adjustments 200,000 90 accordingly. Values here were down ITALY -0.4% 12.4% 0.05% 4.3% in the year to June 2015. 80 0 Opportunity lies in emerging prime SWITZERLAND 2.0% 3.3% -0.75% markets, particularly those influenced Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015
by London’s tech sector. Clerkenwell Jan- 2008 Source: OECD, ONS, Bank of England, INSEE, European Central Bank, Eurostat, Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Istat, SECO and Spitalfields in east London, for example, are benefiting from the Source: Land Registry
20 savills.com/research 21 World Residential Markets 2015
The Riviera is a home location for the global super-rich FRENCH Riviera FRANCE The French Riviera, or Côte d’Azur, The French residential market proved resilient in the years Record-low mortgage rates have improved market liquidity, and it remains among the world’s most immediately following the global financial crisis. Relatively modest is low interest rates that will keep any further falls modest in 2015. exclusive and desirable destination price falls of 9.7% were seen between 2008 and 2009. A period Challenges lie ahead in consolidating public finances, improving for second home ownership. of recovery quickly followed, and by 2011 prices and transaction competitiveness and reducing unemployment. Weak economic Including the towns of St Tropez, levels had exceeded their 2007 highs. growth is forecast, which will bear down on the city’s real estate Cannes, Antibes and Nice, the markets although a change of rhetoric in President Hollande’s stretch of coast was one of the first This recovery proved short lived, and the last three years has seen policies toward the wealthy has helped the prime markets. modern resorts, tracing its origins as suppressed transaction volumes and sliding prices, set against a a winter retreat for the British upper faltering Eurozone economy and rising national unemployment. As Well located, well appointed property is selling best in the capital class at the end of the 18th century. of March 2015, prices in France were 8.4% down on their Q3 2011 and elsewhere and the market is likely to remain quality-sensitive Today, the Riviera is a popular high, while transactions stood 15.7% down over the same period. while broader economic issues persist. additional home location for the global super-rich. The region offers many of the most desirable characteristics of an established resort, such as marinas favoured by such buyers, at cheaper will keep the supply of new build and coastal property, but also has Paris prices than London. property constrained. many city-living benefits with high- The price of Paris flats, as recorded Buyers now recognise value in the end retail, restaurants and a full social Paris is a top-tier world city that by INSEE, have fallen by 6.3% since prime markets and 2015 has seen calendar. This means it is especially enjoys a steady flow of foreign their peak of Q3 2012. Small, easy renewed market activity, aided by low appealing to the new wave of young, investment into its property markets. to let apartments in good locations interest rates and for international globally-mobile high-net-worths. The city has many characteristics have held their value, while larger buyers, a weak euro. Like the rest of France, prices have that make it favourable for buyers apartments suited to families have One area that Paris outcompetes fallen in the region and the market is from around the globe: a major seen price corrections of up to 15%. almost every other location is tourism: a buyers’ one. The most desirable centre of business and finance, Paris would be competing much it is one of the world’s most popular spots, such as Saint-Jean-Cap-Ferrat, quality cultural institutions, luxury more strongly with London for inward tourist destinations, attracting 32 million a peninsula of land east of Nice, are retail and celebrated architecture investment in prime real estate were visitors per year, half from overseas. Big characterised by extremely limited and urban environment. it not for ongoing economic wand spending Chinese visitors are second supply. There are around 500 properties The prime Paris market is driven Eurozone jitters. Given a weak euro, only to Americans and money spent on the Cap, and only a handful come by French buyers, while international the suppressed market represents a during their stay is directly on shopping. onto the market in any single year. purchasers are present at the very top window of opportunity for non-euro This has fuelled huge investment in the Supply is kept low and prices high by end. Paris continues to see a flow of denominated buyers. Supply is up luxury retail sector, which will remain wealthy buyers who are not generally buyers from the Middle East seeking a and prime property remains cheap important in coming years. If even a forced to sell. safe haven in light of continued unrest compared to London with room for small part of this can be translated into Russian buyers have been active in their home region. The city boasts price growth. Limited development real estate purchase, Paris may find in the region, especially in Cap Ferrat, the kind of large, lateral apartments opportunities in historic central Paris itself with a large demand base. n where they have accounted for 65% of buyers in the last four years, followed by the British, at 14%. Russian activity figure 20 has slowed as economic sanctions France market performance 2006-2015 restrict these buyers’ international - - - Metropolitan France - prices n France - transactions ambition. St Tropez, by contrast, is a n Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur – prices n Paris - prices (flats) more domestic market. Even at the to the better known Megève. This 170 900,000 super-prime end of the market here French Alps resort benefits from a strong summer 45% of purchasers are French. season, attracting visitors to its 160 800,000 New development opportunities on The French Alps are home to some thermal spa along with mountain
150 700,000 the coast are extremely limited. Some of the world’s most exclusive biking and hiking activities. developers have taken advantage residential markets. Courchevel Prospective purchasers in the region 140 600,000 of weaker market conditions to buy 1850 attracts UHNWI purchasers may turn their attention to typical ski properties on large plots and subdivide from around the globe, benefiting conditions. French resorts compare 130 500,000 into smaller, multiple units. from quality skiing across 150km favourably to their Swiss and Austrian
120 400,000 The expansion of tourism, driven of pistes and six Michelin star counterparts, with average season by improved connections across restaurants. Ultra prime prices here lengths but higher levels of snowfall, 110 300,000 Europe via low-cost airlines, has had exceed €34,000psm. Val d’Isère is resulting in reliable skiing. High
Price index (Jan 06 = 100) the effect of expanding the second- another a long established ultra- snowfall resorts such as Val-d’Isère Transactions (12 month total) Transactions 100 200,000 home market into lower price points. prime French resort attracting ‘old enjoy a peak season that runs well into
90 100,000 Smaller, higher yielding units in Nice world’ money. These resorts proved April. Resorts with strong summer and Cannes, for example, have relatively resilient during the global seasons are less reliant on skiers to 80 0 gained favour with investors given economic crisis. Transaction levels occupy accommodation and pose depressed sales prices but stable slowed somewhat as finance-reliant greater rental potential. Chamonix rents. In the mainstream markets purchases fled, but prices held firm. attracts a large number of summer Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015 Jan- 2008 websites such as Air BnB broadcast A rising star in the French Alps is climbers, Mont Blanc tourists, hikers Prime market in Paris is driven by French buyers Source: INSEE, CGEDD short-term rental opportunities. n St Gervais, an affordable alternative and glacier skiers. n
22 savills.com/research 23 World Residential Markets 2015
thanks to a diverse demand base and performers through the global Balearics limited new supply. During the depths economic downturn. SPAIN of the recession in 2012, one in every Ibiza has also proved resilient, Prices across the Balearics have four Spanish properties that were sold having refined its image in recent Underlying economic conditions remain challenging in Spain. This has been supported by the rapid expansion of air routes to been broadly flat in the last year, to foreigners was in Mallorca. years. The island offers high-end Unemployment stands at 22.4%, slightly down from a high of and from the Middle East with summer capacity up 36.6% over after rises of 8.1% in the year to Germans have dominated the entertainment, retail and restaurants, almost 27% in 2013. In spite of this, at the national level the 2014, according to airport operator Aena. Q2 2014. They now stand just market in recent years, accounting attracting a diverse range of Spanish residential market appears to have stabilised. Prices 11.8% below their 2008 highs, for up to half of all buyers, although European buyers. Buyers of second stand 28.6% below their 2008 peak and by the first quarter Non-EU nationals have a route into the market via the country’s having seen relatively modest the British have recently regained homes here are among the youngest of 2015 the rate of falls had slowed to 0.3% on an annual. A golden visa scheme, which attracted 530 foreign nationals price falls by Spanish standards their position as the largest foreign globally, 22% of buyers are aged rapid rebound is unlikely given the high volume of new housing, between September 2013 and December 2014. A €500,000 during the downturn. buyer group. Seven of the top ten under 40. Unlike Mallorca, British delivered prior to the crisis, still being worked through (see panel). investment in real estate means the visa holder is automatically The residential markets in the busiest international air routes buyers dominate the Ibiza market, granted residence and working rights in the country. Investors Balearics have been much more at Palma airport are to Germany. but Spanish buyers are present in While the domestic market is still suppressed, there are may also invest in public debt or share purchases but, so far, the resilient than those of the mainland Mallorca was one of the better the additional home market too. n opportunities for homebuyers and investors from abroad. A weak vast majority (92%) have taken the real estate route. The recent euro makes Spanish property especially affordable to GBP and stability of nominal house prices and transaction levels may be USD buyers, giving greater purchasing power. Meanwhile, the due at least in part to the golden visa market boost. Investors Middle East is a rapidly growing source market for residential will do well to consider how vulnerable the market will be to the investment in the country – particularly at lower price points. cessation of this policy.
figure 21 Housebuilding Peak and current house-building rates n Recent peak n Now
in Spain 900,000 800,000 Spain experienced extremely 700,000 high levels of new development 600,000 in the run up to the market 500,000 Residential peak, much of it aimed at markets in the second home buyers in coastal 400,000 Balearics have been more Annual delivery 300,000 resorts. Housing starts peaked Marbella & Sotogrande Madrid resilient than at 865,500 in 2006 – almost 200,000 mainland Spain four times that of recent peak 100,000 Marbella enjoys a position as a British, Scandinavian, German and Madrid, the capital of Spain and delivery the UK, in spite having 0 prime tourist destination, attracting other nationalities. This ‘small town’ important urban centre in its a quarter less population. The Spain France Germany UK visitors from Europe and beyond, nature of the population can support own right, is primarily a domestic withdrawal of buyers during the Source: Ministry of Development, Observation et Statistiques, Federal Statistical Office, DCLG year round. Economic revival in key urbanism and a wide variety of market. Well under 1% of all financial crisis put a halt to these markets, most notably the UK, has facilities, including golf courses, polo properties transacted in the city high levels of development, but renewed demand so transactions facilities and a marina. in 2014 were sold to foreigners figure 22 the stock overhang remains. numbers grew by 28% in 2014 alone. The development received a not already resident in Spain. This In 2014 just 34,900 units were Spain market performance 2006-2015 Prices in the Malaga region, in boost at the end of 2014 when it was figure is largely unchanged in the started in the country. which Marbella is located, are 24.4% sold to US investment fund Cerberus last decade. n Spain - transactions n Spain - prices n Madrid - prices n Balearics - prices n Malaga province – prices below their 2007 high, but the market Capital Management. This means its residential market The national picture disguises 140 300000 has realigned and vendors in prime It is anticipated this will result in is much more closely driven by the some resilient sub markets. The locations are no longer accepting more investment into Sotogrande in national economy and domestic Balearics saw much lower net 130 deep discounts on asking prices. the short-term, and underlines wider factors. Prices here fell further 250000 additions to housing stock, and The British, followed by French confidence in the scheme. Quality, than the Spanish average – some a dearth of new development 120 and Russian buyers, are the largest modern properties in general are in 33.7% between 2007 and the lowest in recent years means quality 200000 foreigner purchasing groups. There short supply after a dearth of new level at the end of 2013. However, new units are now in short 110 has also been growing activity among development in recent years. n in common with the rest of Spain, supply. Just 1,186 dwellings Middle Eastern purchasers, though stability has returned and 2014 saw 100 150000 were completed in the at lower price points than they have prices appreciate 8.1% off their very
Balearics in 2014, for a region 90 historically brought. low base. with in excess of one million 100000 Carefully managed, well established Prime Madrid offers the best of inhabitants. It is no coincidence resorts such as Sotogrande, close city living, with good access to shops, 80 (12 month total) Transactions that this region has emerged to Malaga have enjoyed renewed bars and restaurants and cultural 50000 as one of the best performing 70 demand. With a permanent onsite attractions. In spite of being the third
in the country, with prices now average I ndex (Q1 2006 = 100), four quarter rolling resident community of approximately largest city in Western Europe, prime just 11.8% below their 2008 60 0 7,000 people (which doubles in property is a fraction of the cost of high, compared to 28.6% number during the summer) and its counterparts in London or Paris – below at the national level. an international school for 620 although it is does not attract close Q1 2006 Q3 2006 Q1 2007 Q3 2007 Q1 2008 Q3 2008 Q1 2009 Q3 2009 Q1 2010 Q3 2010 Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 students, half of its residents are to the same levels of international Source: Ministeiro de Fomento Spanish. The balance is made of Marbella remains a prime tourist destination investment – yet. n
24 savills.com/research 25 World Residential Markets 2015
Real, a prime district within reach Chinese, the major recipients of Lisbon of key shopping districts. It is the country’s golden visa PORTUGAL redeveloping buildings here into programme, have mainly bought in Lisbon is enjoying a new wave high-end apartments. In other real Lisbon, reflecting their preference Portugal is seeing a tentative economic recovery. GDP growth golden visa scheme (see panel below) has proved successful of investment into its residential estate sectors, investment fund for city property. Other active stood at just 0.92% in 2014, but it still represents a steady in stimulating prime residential markets, particularly among the markets. While new development Blackstone has been particularly international buyers include South improvement over previous years’ performance. Unemployment Chinese. For others, the government's Non-Habitual Residents is limited, existing building active in Portugal, obtaining retail Africans, Brazilians and, to a lesser is falling, and at 13.2% it is significantly lower than that of (NHR) regime offers people moving to Portugal for the first renovations are increasingly and logistics assets. extent, Russians. neighbouring Spain, at 22.4%. Without the same levels of over- time reduced tax rates or tax exemption for 10 years on certain common. Dilapidated townhouses Buying activity generated from Lisbon’s prime real estate looks development, its residential markets fared better too. incomes. It has proved particularly attractive to EU residents, are being redeveloped into high end the golden visa scheme has seen good value by European standards notably those from France. retail, offices and apartments. demand concentrated in central – roughly half the price of that in Portugal’s residential market saw price falls of 10.3% between US developer Eastbanc has parts of Lisbon, such as Principe Madrid, and less than a tenth of 2010 and 2014, according to data from Instituto Nacional de In addition, Portugal has overhauled its leasing laws. Rents in been active in Lisbon’s Principe Real, Portugal’s historic heart. The London prime prices. n Estatistica (adding to falls already seen since 2008). Since then, urban areas had previously been heavily controlled by law and transactions have been on a modest upward trajectory and 2014 had become detached from market reality. While they remain was characterised by stability in prices, posting a modest 2.2% pro-tenant, they have made residential investment for long- year on year increase. term income a more appealing proposition. A slowly improving economy means stronger occupier demand too. All these factors, The Algarve Portugal is friendly to foreign investment. There are no restrictions taken together, have contributed to the recent stabilisation of on property ownership, while transaction costs are low. The Portugal’s housing market. The Algarve is the southernmost region of mainland Portugal. A popular tourist destination, it is a well established second home location for northern Europeans, notably the British and Irish. The Golden Visa Buyers French are a growing force in the region, attracted by the tax breaks on offer under the government’s Portugal launched one of the world’s most successful golden jurisdictions. Cyprus, Greece, Malta and Spain all offer programmes. Non-Habitual Resident regime. visa schemes in 2012. A minimum investment in real estate of Montenegro and Hungary are to follow. The Caribbean market is In common with other Eurozone €500,000 grants the non-EU buyer a visa and longer term, a route particularly competitive. Grenada and Dominica offer citizenship by markets, dollar and sterling buyers to an EU passport. Foreigners need only be resident in Portugal for investment programmes in real estate for as little as $200,000. have the upper hand, and this has seven days in the first year of residency. helped to revive demand from the UK There are around 20,000 applicants for golden visas annually across market in particular. By June 2015, the scheme has brought Portugal €1.46 billion the globe, a market that is growing rapidly. While there are no One of the most established investment. More than 1,500 visas were issued in 2014 alone. shortage of applicants, the challenge is attracting inward investment enclaves for prime property in the The Chinese accounted for an overwhelming majority, more than into a country’s real estate market without distorting it. Purchasers region is Quinta do Lago, a high- 80%, and have favoured apartments in Lisbon, at the minimum of real estate via such schemes are required to spend relatively little end golf and residential community, investment mark. Such was its popularity with the Chinese it has time in the host country, and many use it as a cheaper route into The Algarve is a well established second home location comprising of more than 1,200 spawned an industry specialising in the sale and investment of major European cities such as London. villas. The resort saw the beginning Portuguese property to Chinese clients. The scheme was paused in of a sustained recovery in 2014, figure 24 July 2015 amid allegations of corruption, but reinitiated soon after. Questions have also been raised over setting ‘false floors’ in the with sales increasing by 34%. A market at the entry price point, whereby properties worth less Portugal market performance 2006-2015 testament to the strength of the The Portuguese scheme faces competition, particularly as the are artificially priced to the investment minimum. This could have market is that offers being made n Portugal - transactions n Portugal - prices minimum investment threshold is pushed downwards in other ramifications upon resale, distorting the domestic market. on properties there are now at, or 105 140,000 close to, asking price. ‘Turnkey’ properties remain popular, but investors are also active. Older villas Lisbon is witnessing investment from China 120,000 100 are typically redeveloped for today’s figure 23 market, complete with the latest 100,000 Golden visa buyers: nationalities Oct 2012 – Jan 2015 technological innovations. 95 Quinta do Lago represents the kind 80,000 of prime, well managed developments with strong amenity offer that are 60,000 90 leading the recovery in depressed n China: 81% national markets. In addition to new n 40,000 Brazil: 3% Price index (Q4 2009 = 100)
Transactions (12 month total) Transactions French buyers, British, Irish, Belgian n Russia: 3% 85 and other Europeans are returning to n South Africa: 2% 20,000 the region in greater numbers. n Lebanon: 2% n Other: 9% Outside the prime resorts, the 80 0 Algarve market remains challenging, but a rapidly improving tourist market bodes well longer term. Tourist arrivals
Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 were markedly higher in 2014 than the Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs Source: Instituto Nacional de Estatistica prior season. n
26 savills.com/research 27 World Residential Markets 2015
ITALY
The Italian market is weak, but could be on the cusp of Germans are the dominant international buyer group, accounting improvement. Unemployment stands at 12.4%, while youth for 45% of non-Italian buyers across the whole country, according unemployment is much higher at over 40%. While 2015 is likely to Scenari Immobiliari. American buyers are returning having to see further price falls, a modest improvement in economic largely withdrawn from the market in recent years. Interest has also performance may put a floor in price falls next year, starting with picked up from British buyers, along with those from Scandinavia, prime markets and major cities and encouraged by a cheap euro. Switzerland and Benelux countries. Russians, previously active in A mortgage guarantee scheme launched in January aims to coastal resorts such as Forte del Marmi have largely disappeared stimulate the lower end of the market. Transaction levels are already given issues in their home market. recovering in the major cities. Italy’s prime, second-home markets are some of the world’s most The Italian market is underpinned by an exceptionally high rate of desirable, characterised by their built heritage and natural beauty. owner occupation, with 75% of the population living in mortgaged In Lake Como’s rarefied residential market traditional properties with or outright owned properties, compared to 67% in the UK and 64% lake views are in limited supply and have continued to trade well in France. By contrast, the rental market is small and low-yielding. when they become available, sustaining prices.
In spite of weak domestic market conditions, a weak euro is History, heritage and the natural environment will sustain Italy’s appeal attracting US and UK buyers to the second-home hotspots of as an international destination for retreat property over the longer term Tuscany, Umbria and the Italian Lakes. even if some domestic real estate markets continue to languish.
Venice is a much sought figure 25 after prime city and invest in a property to occupy is estimated to exceed 60,000. location Italy market performance 2010-2015 Milan Venice for part of the year themselves whilst Rentals are underpinned by solid n Italy - prices renting it out at other times, often tourist demand, and yields of 5% 115 Milan, alongside Rome and Venice remains a sought after during the peak summer tourist are achievable. Venice is one of Italy’s most destination for its exceptional and season, when the city is at its busiest Venice is also a popular second 110 expensive cities. Prime property unique characteristics. and rents are highest. home destination for Italians, who 105 in Milan is concentrated in the Its real estate is highly prized and The resident population is now make up approximately a quarter of city centre neighbourhoods of integral to the city’s character. Buyers outnumbered by the number of the market. Other major buyer groups 100 Quadrilatero, Palestro, Castello, in Venice are often familiar with the visitors the city receives daily, which include the French and the British. n
95 and Manzoni, and characterised by elegant historic buildings. 90 Much of Milan was destroyed Price index (2006 = 100) in WWII, so property here, in what 85 is left of Milan’s historic centre, 80 is in especially high demand and Tuscany & Umbria especially rare. As Italy’s fashion capital, Milan offers extensive luxury Properties in Tuscany have seen Tuscany is governed by strict Q1 2006 Q3 2006 Q1 2007 Q3 2007 Q1 2008 Q3 2008 Q1 2009 Q3 2009 Q1 2010 Q3 2010 Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 retail, but it is also a major financial price falls of between 15% and planning laws which have helped Source: Eurostat, OECD centre and home to Italy’s stock 30% from their former highs, but maintain its character, but also mean exchange. most would-be vendors have that modern properties are rare. According to Nomisma, property ‘held tight’, so few properties have Early foreign investors in the region prices in Milan fell by -1.6% in 2015. traded. The Chianti represents did well with farmhouse conversions, This is slightly better performance the classic Tuscan landscape of but such opportunities are now few than Rome and Venice (-3.4% and rolling hills and cypress trees and and far between. -2.7% respectively) over the same residential properties come at a Umbria lies directly to the south period. However, the rental market is premium here. of Tuscany, and was a little later strong by Italian standards, although This visually stunning region is to receive wide scale foreign yields are relatively low, between 3% the most internationally invested, investment than its neighbour. and 4%. n with some high profile sales of Characterised by hill towns, there are vineyards to Russian buyers in many opportunities for restoration recent years, although the Russian of historic buildings, and prices are market is less active at present. lower here. n Tuscany offers strong potential for holiday rentals with both As Italy's fashion capital, rural and city properties in high “Umbria lies directly to the south Milan offers extensive demand from tourists. Birthplace of the Renaissance, Florence is the of Tuscany, and was a little later luxury retail region’s major city and is one of to receive foreign investment” Milan is one of Italy's most expensive cities Tuscany offers potential for holiday rentals Italy’s most visited.
28 savills.com/research 29 World Residential Markets 2015
The Swiss Alps attract second-home buyers from across the globe Swiss Alps SWITZERLAND The Alps are the world’s largest ski Switzerland experienced sustained levels of residential price appreciate and make Swiss exports more expensive, slowing market, and attract second-home growth between 2008 and 2013 (the price of houses grew the economy in general. Foreign buyers with Swiss Franc buyers from across the globe. The by 28%), running counter to many other European markets. denominated mortgages have been especially hit. Swiss Alpine resorts of Gstaad, St Economic expansion, low interest rates, growth in real wages Moritz, Zermatt and Verbier are and immigration of wealthy individuals all supported housing Switzerland has one of the world’s strictest citizenship systems. among the world’s most exclusive, demand. The strengthening Swiss franc also raised their price in Qualification requires 12 years of permanent, legal and notated and expensive, with ultra-prime comparison to other currencies. residency, fluency in one of the official languages and integration prices ranging from €20,000 to into Swiss culture and community. Switzerland introduced new €30,000 per sqm ($1,650 to $2,500 Price growth is now slowing, amid government efforts to cool quotas for EU citizens in 2013. Foreign buyers are also heavily per sqft). the market by introducing stricter lending requirements. The restricted on residential property purchase – just 1,500 permits are These resorts have diversified decoupling of the Swiss Franc with the Euro has seen its value released a year – although the rules vary significantly by Canton. beyond skiing to cater to many of the other demands of the super-rich. Designer shopping, Michelin starred restaurants and polo are all part of the offer. These ultra-prime resorts proved Geneva relatively resilient during the global economic crisis. Transaction levels Geneva is very much a rental city slowed, but values were supported by (some 80% of the population is restricted supply and the absence of estimated to rent) and the rental forced sales. market is strongly pro-tenant. In the prime markets, holiday Geneva is an expensive city in which home buying peaked in the 2007-08 to live and there is especially strong season, and fell away significantly demand for city-centre apartments – during the recessionary years. which are in short supply. Discretionary second-home Demand is fuelled in part by buyers, reliant on mortgage finance employees of the finance and withdrew from the market after the business services sector on generous credit crunch. Following a period of relocation packages. stabilisation, prices are now on the Property prices in Geneva have rise again although buyers continue grown 55% since 2006, compared to expect a discount, particularly for to 27% across Switzerland. These second hand properties. rates of growth are echoed in the Analysis of sales data suggests rental market. High prices have put more sales are now taking place at property purchase and even rent out lower price points. The resilience of of reach of many locals in Geneva, the ultra-prime markets has started which counts itself alongside to ripple down the market ladder. Zurich and Zug as one of the most The average purchase price of prime expensive locations in the country. Geneva is an expensive city in which to live property transacted across core Alpine Each day 90,000 workers commute resorts was €1.5m in 2011, when from neighbouring France to the city, figure 26 only the very best properties were a number that has doubled over the Switzerland market performance 2006-2015 transacting. By 2014, this had fallen last decade. to just under €1m, with British buyers, n n For those who can afford it (and, Switzerland - prices Lake Geneva - prices in particular, purchasing again at non-nationals who can obtain a permit 160 lower levels. to purchase), Geneva offers attractive The markets are also seeing an property in a safe, secure environment. 150 expansion in the breadth of buyers The most desirable property enjoys they attract. Prior to the global lake or mountain views. n 140 recession, British buyers dominated the market, accounting for the vast homeland. Chinese skiers numbered 130 majority of foreign buyers in many just 10,000 in 1996, and now exceed Swiss resorts. Today, a much wider five million. Switzerland is now 120 variety of buyers are present. These second only to Japan as a recipient
Price index (2006 = 100) include a wide range of European of these high-spending ski tourists. 55% 110 buyers, particularly those from northern The Chinese have yet to make Alpine House price Europe and the Nordics, as well as home purchases in any volume, but growth in Geneva 100 those from further afield. other Asian buyers are increasingly The premier Swiss ski resorts active in Switzerland, notably those 2006 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 since 2006 have been among the first to attract from Malaysia, Singapore and Source: INSEE, CGEDD Chinese skiers outside of their Hong Kong. n
30 savills.com/research 31 World Residential Markets 2015
Prime property prices are back to 2007 levels in New York
NORTH AMERICA USA
The US economy is in its fifth year of recovery and the housing foreign purchasers in dollar terms, at 24%, up from 19% in AND THE CARIBBEAN market has now seen three years of growth from its lows of 2009. 2013. Canadians are top by sales number with those from At a national level, as of April 2015 prices were up 31.2% from Mexico, India and the UK rounding off the top five. their 2009 trough, and stand within 12.9% of their 2006 high. The prime markets of cities such as San Francisco and New York US cities have been undergoing a renaissance in the last few have already exceeded their former peaks. decades, a trend accelerated by the rise of new technologies n The USA’s housing market or, economic growth which, according and creative classes attracted to vibrant urban environments. more specifically, its sub-prime to most forecasters, is set to The US residential market is among the world’s largest. Some Cities actively provide the human experiences and interactions mortgage market, was the source continue; this time driven by cash 5.49m properties changed hands in the year to June 2015, (a that allow for the inception, nurturing, funding and development of the North Atlantic debt crisis. purchasers rather than high gearing. figure down by 24% on 2005 numbers). The market is largely of new ideas and products. New York and San Francisco, both It is therefore unsurprising that domestic but foreign buyers are present in key locations. with large and growing tech sectors, have seen their markets America’s housing markets were n The US market is primarily a According to the National Association of Realtors, international moved by this trend. Existing run-down neighbourhoods and perhaps the hardest-hit among domestic one. The largest US buyers make up 7% of the market in dollar terms (an increase of districts have been colonised by artists and tech entrepreneurs developed nations and remained cities enjoy foreign investment into 35% over 2013 levels). These are evenly split between resident and reinvigorated. Established neighbourhoods have also suppressed for longest. their residential markets, but at and non-resident foreigners. The Chinese are the largest group of benefited and values have been pushed to new highs. lower levels than those seen in n US housing market recovery has other top-tier cities such as London been underway for the last three or Singapore. years or so but is polarised between the high growth, high-powered first n The Caribbean is the northern At the very top end of the market, categories: associated costs and cities like San Francisco and New hemisphere’s playground and, as New York New York is one of a handful of global housing tenure. In common York and other high-supply, slower such, suffered alongside those cities (including London and Hong with the rest of the US, the entry, recovery and lower demand centres, housing markets. In common with New York rode out the global Kong) in which the global super-rich holding and exit costs associated for example, the Mid-West. the USA, discounted values in financial crisis better than much most commonly hold residential with property are relatively high. the Caribbean now make it look of the rest of the US. Prime property. This reflects the city’s status New York’s prevalence of n The US housing market story is attractive for both second-home residential prices are back at 2007 as one of the most important world co-operative apartments which currently of high growth reflecting and income investors. n levels, while rents have exceeded cities. Super-prime price records have foreigners find more difficult to former highs, underpinned by been set at $13,000psft. A raft of new buy pushes investors toward the solid occupier demand (68% of condominium development catered to relatively restricted 30% of stock households in New York rent). this group has been delivered in recent that is condominium tenure. n New York is a major global tech years, delivered in iconic residential city and a shift in occupier demand is towers that include One57 and 432 shaping its corporate office market, Park Avenue. and bringing more young renters to There are, however, some possible Buying a property as a the city. As a result, gross mainstream impediments to investment in rental yields are relatively high, at 5.9%. New York. These fall into two main non-resident in the US
There are no restrictions on buying and owning real figure 27 estate in the US, and property may be occupied as a USA market performance 2006-2015 second home if the purchaser’s passport permits. For n USA - transactions n USA - prices (20 city composite) n New York - prices n San Francisco - prices longer stays, residency may be achieved via a work visa, while immigrant investor visas can be obtained 110 8,000,000 with a minimum investment of $500,000 – $1,000,000.
7,000,000 100 In markets like New York, where there is a high
6,000,000 proportion of cooperative buildings, prospective 90 purchasers require the approval of the building’s board 5,000,000 (in common with domestic buyers). This involves 80 sharing financial statements and tax returns and 4,000,000 a face-to-face interview. Restrictions may also be 70 placed on owners ability to let their property. This often 3,000,000 places a practical barrier in the path of an overseas 60 investment purchaser. Condominium purchase can be Price index (Jan 2006 = 100) Regional economic statistics and trend 2,000,000 (12 month total) Transactions almost as rigorous. 50 GDP GROWTH UNEMPLOYMENT INTEREST 1,000,000 Country RATE 2014 RATE BASE RATE Property taxes are punitive by global standards, 40 0 comprised of a variety of local and country levies that USA 2.4% 5.3% 0.25% can cost around 8% of the assessed value over a five year hold. Sales costs are high with agent fees at Jul‐2006 Jul ‐2007 Jul ‐2008 Jul ‐2009 Jul‐2010 Jul ‐2011 Jul ‐2012 Jul ‐2013 Jul ‐2014 Source: OECD, Federal Reserve, US Department of Labor Jan‐2006 Jan ‐2007 Jan ‐2008 Jan ‐2009 Jan ‐2010 Jan ‐2011 Jan ‐2012 Jan ‐2013 Jan ‐2014 Jan ‐2015 around 6%. Source: S&P Case Shiller, National Association of Realtors
32 savills.com/researchsavills.com/research XX33 World Residential Markets 2015
at 16,220 units in 2007 and fell to a development has emerged, fuelled by Miami low of just 1,140 in 2011. When the equity-driven Latin American buyers. Los Angeles market crashed, prices fell by more As of June 2015, prime prices in Miami Miami is a cosmopolitan city than half, one of the most severe price stand just 2.9% below their former The Los Angeles prime markets and gateway to and from Latin corrections in the US. Since this low, high, according to Savills figures. are characterised sprawling America. A major centre of the market has rebounded strongly. Rental vacancy rates are some suburbs of large detached homes. finance and international trade, it Of a pipeline of 17,000 of units, 70% of the lowest in the US. Over half Bel Air, Beverly Hills and Holmby attracts a range of business and have been pre-sold. of Miami’s population is from Latin Hills are the best known and most leisure buyers. Prime property The fact that Miami is dominated America, a group which represents expensive, in the north of LA, with is concentrated in Miami Beach by condominiums makes it appealing 70% of all overseas purchasers. many high-profile residents. These (technically a separate city) an area to international buyers, and it is this Buyers from South America view are quiet, spacious, manicured famous for its art deco buildings. group that drove recovery in the city. Miami as a home from home and a neighbourhoods, with relatively Miami was a hotspot of the US In contrast to the pre-2006 boom, stepping stone into the rest of the few amenities. Other prime housing market boom, the recipient Miami’s recent real estate recovery has United States. neighbourhoods, such as Palos of a huge amount of condominium been built on equity rather than credit, Top countries of origin are Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos development. Completions peaked and a new wave of condominium Venezuela (16%), Argentina (13%), Verde and Manhattan Beach are Brazil (8%), Colombia (8%) and coastal communities with views Peru (8%). Buyers from Europe, of the Pacific, coastal cliffs and “The fact Miami is dominated by condominiums notably the United Kingdom, are access to beaches. also present in the upper tiers of the Urban living is undergoing a revival makes it appealing to international buyers, and market. Immigration is helping to fuel in Los Angeles, with Downtown it is this group that drove recovery in the city” population growth which is forecast LA experiencing gentrification in to increase 15.2% by 2030. n recent years, fuelling a surge of new condominium development. Luxury condominium buildings are concentrated in Downtown Los Angeles, Century City, the Wilshire Corridor, and at Marina del Rey. Outside these areas, residential development is typically restricted by height, depending on the city and ordinances, to a maximum of 3-6 stories. LA saw a strong demand for condominiums in the first part of 2015, with sales up 13.5% on a year- on-year basis, compared to just 1.1% increase for single family homes. As a west coast city, Los Angeles is strategically positioned to attract Asian buyers. Major overseas buyer groups in the LA prime markets include the Chinese, Koreans, Japanese, Singaporeans, and Malaysians. Europeans, including the British, are present alongside Australians, a relative minority. Los Angeles is especially attractive on the world stage, given its high global profile due to the entertainment industry. Prime prices in the city grew by 5.2% in the year to June 2015 and now stand just 2.2% below their former high. The city is second only to New York for the amount of cross- border investment it receives into its commercial real estate (11%). n 5.2% Prime house price growth in Los Angeles year to June 2015 A new wave of condominium development has emerged in Miami Los Angeles is especially attractive on a world stage
34 savills.com/research 35 World Residential Markets 2015
San Francisco
San Francisco is thriving and fast-growing attracting large numbers of young professionals, tech entrepreneurs and other creative people. It has seen an increasing number of successful people migrating out of Silicon Valley in search of an urban, rather % than suburban, lifestyle. A small city, just 46 square miles 27.9 in size, its compactness and walkability is central to its appeal, but also means Prime residential property that new housing delivery is restricted in San Francisco exceeds by a very limited supply of land. Strong demand fuelled by a 2007 levels buoyant local economy, coupled with this restricted supply has put upward pressure on prices. Prime prices grew by 25.7% in the two years to June 2015, bringing values to 27.9% above 2007 levels, outperforming New York, Los Angeles, Miami and Chicago over the same period. San Francisco districts on the rise include Hayes Valley, the Mission District and Mid-Market – the latter having seen an influx of tech firms setting up business in the neighbourhood. Established prime neighbourhoods include Nob Hill, Pacific Heights (townhouses and apartments) and Sea Cliff (single family homes). All markets are characterised by very low levels of supply, with inventory at its lowest level since 2009. San Francisco’s rental market is especially strong, with occupier demand driven by well-paid young professionals. Rents for mainstream property in the city have recently overtaken New York and are now among the most expensive in the United States. With rental growth outpacing capital value growth,mainstream gross yields in excess of 7% are achievable, although investors face high transaction and holding costs. n
“San Francisco's rental market is especially strong, with occupier demand driven by well-paid young professionals”
Demand for property in San Francisco is buoyed by a buoyant local economy
36 savills.com/research 37 World Residential Markets 2015
figure 28 THE CARIBBEAN Tourist arrivals and growth n Tourist arrivals 2014 (LH axis) n Percentage change (RH axis)
The Caribbean is a diverse region and home to 30 territories This has been largely due to the turnaround in the US economy and 6,000,000 50% that include sovereign states, overseas departments and a more positive outlook from American buyers as a result, coupled 5,000,000 dependencies. The region’s real estate markets are just as with the return of some UK and European buyers. Prices in the 40% varied, but the prime markets are dominated by second home Caribbean seem now to have bottomed out and transactions are 4,000,000 30% buyers from overseas. beginning to pick up. 3,000,000 20% Some of the world’s most exclusive residential markets can be While tourism is important, some island markets benefit from more 2,000,000 found in the Caribbean. Saint Barthélemy, or St Barts has long been diversified economies. In both the Cayman Islands and British Virgin 10% 1,000,000 a playground of the rich and famous, while the Barbados Platinum Islands more than half of GDP is generated by the financial services Annual % change
Tourist arrivals 2014 Tourist 0% Coast has a global reputation among the ultra wealthy. For the sector and they are both ranked in the top 40 financial centres 0
ultimate trophy asset, the Caribbean also offers private islands. globally. This brings with it high paid jobs and residents relocating -10% Richard Branson’s Necker Island is one of the most famous. for business and employment thus supporting a prime residential market for long-term residents. -20% Tourism is all-important to the Caribbean economy and the Haiti Cuba Belize region is a popular overwintering destination for the northern Some Caribbean islands are more reliant on mass tourism than Aruba G uyana Anguilla Jamaica Curacao G renada Bermuda Dominica Bahamas Suriname Barbados Venezuela Martinique
hemisphere. As a consequence, the prime residential markets others. Figure 28 shows that none of the islands we look at in Saint Lucia St. Maarten Puerto Rico of the Caribbean are closely tied to the success of North more detail here fall into the mass tourism category, even though St. Kitts & Nevis Cayman Islands US Virgin Islands US Virgin Trinidad & Tobago Trinidad
American and European economies. Residential values fell by overseas buyers are important in their prime property markets. Antigua & Barbuda British Virgin Islands British Virgin Dominican Republic
up to 30% across the Caribbean during the North Atlantic debt Tourism comprises 36.2% of the economy in Barbados, 26.2% in & Caicos Islands Turks
crisis, but recent years have seen a return of buyer interest in the the Cayman Islands, and 24.5% in St Kitts and Nevis, according to St. Vincent & the G enadines Caribbean’s second home markets. the World Travel and Tourism Council. Source: Caribbean Tourist Organisation
in Barbados (more than 1,500) Tourism is the island’s other major by the St Kitts & Nevis citizenship by Barbados are located in specially developed Cayman Islands economic contributor, which grew St Kitts & Nevis investment programme. Initiated in residential communities. These offer by 10.8% in 2014, among the fastest 1984, the scheme was designed to Barbados is an independent a range of amenities including polo Cayman offers its residents a rate in the region. The industry is St Kitts and Nevis is a twin island accelerate the transformation of the state and member of the grounds, golf courses, water sports, secure, low-crime environment, supported by flight links to 12 North federation with a combined country from a sugar-based economy Commonwealth, home to 285,000 marinas, spa centres, restaurants and coupled with good infrastructure American cities, and London, as well population of some 55,000 to a service-based one and stimulate residents. Tourism is the mainstay boutique shopping. and international schools making as regional destinations. It is also one inhabitants. The islands’ economy economic growth more broadly. of the Barbados economy, with Buyer preferences are generally it appealing for families. With a of the most popular stopovers for traditionally depended on the For the real-estate route, foreigners the UK being the largest source for turnkey properties. Interest in population of just 57,000, 96% cruise passengers in the region. growing and processing of sugar must purchase a property of at least market and accounting for a properties that are more difficult to live in Grand Cayman, the largest The Cayman Island residential cane. This has been replaced by $400,000 in an approved real estate third of all arrivals (there are manage and maintain, especially the of the three islands, the remainder markets are a mixture of tourism and financial and business development (along with various other direct flights to ten UK cities renovation or rebuild markets, is now on Cayman Brac and Little condominiums and single family services in recent years. A large government fees). In return recipients and Concorde previously served substantially smaller than prior 2008. Cayman, 89 miles to the northeast. homes. Seven Mile Beach is new Marriott resort and casino are granted visa-free travel to 130 the island). It also benefits from Property prices fell by up to 20% It is one of the richest countries in characterised by condominiums opened in St Kitts 2003, the first countries including the UK, a position outside the principle during the global economic downturn, the Caribbean. popular with second home owners facility of its scale on the islands. Schengen area countries, Atlantic hurricane belt. but the best properties held their Cayman is a British Overseas seeking lock-up-and-leave property. The main airport, Robert L Bradshaw Hong Kong and Singapore. Both the tourist market and in turn value and the island remains one Territory but enjoys strong links to the Cayman’s strong financial services International, was upgraded to Overseas buyers have traditionally the market for additional homes is of the most expensive markets in US, the major tourist source market sector means there is a buoyant accommodate wide-bodied aircraft hailed from the UK, US, Canada Barbados has one of the most mature and well established. More the Caribbean. The prime Barbados (accounting for more than three relocation market. Those moving in 2006 and now attracts scheduled and Europe, but the visa investment expensive golf than half the holiday homes available market is well established and quarters of tourist arrivals) and one to the island may rent initially, flights to London. programme has seen the Chinese, courses ever built occupiers tend to hold their of the largest foreign resident groups. but for those staying longer term The global financial crisis came Russians and those from the Middle properties long term. Most foreign The government plans to leverage single family homes are favoured, late to the islands and the residential East rise in prominence. While many buyers are British, followed by this link by establishing ‘Health City’, particularly in the north of the markets remained largely unaffected will invest the minimum $400,000, the Americans, but other European a medical tourism facility aimed at island. While the island’s real estate until 2010. After this, transactions super-prime market is growing, catered buyers are growing in presence, the North American market. The markets suffered during the global slowed and price falls of 20% were for with the recent addition of a private along with Canadians. government has also established economic downturn, reaching their reported in the prime sector. The jet terminal at the main airport. n The island’s Platinum Coast has ‘Cayman Enterprise City’, a special lowest point in 2010, they saw some two islands have different market international cache and is the haunt economic zone planned to attract new improvement in 2013 and 2014. characteristics, St Kitts the busier of UHNWIs from around the globe. technology, finance and education Development plot sales are enjoying of the two islands with easy airport Exclusive, world famous resorts such investment. This is hoped to diversify a resurgence, as are condominium access, Nevis being quieter and more as Sandy Lane are located here, as is the islands’ economy, which is developments on Seven Mile Beach. expensive. Villa schemes attached to the Green Monkey, reported to be one dominated by the financial services Watercolours, a 60 unit development hotels are popular among additional of the most expensive golf courses sector, which currently accounts for with direct beach frontage and hotel home buyers, as are secluded stand- Tourism plays an important ever built. Royal Westmoreland is 55% of the island’s GDP. Cayman style-amenity, is representative of the alone properties. role in the economy of another popular high-end development is ranked 39 in the Global Financial continued shift up-market in island The islands’ residential markets on the island. n Centres index. real estate. n have for many years been supported St Kitts & Nevis
38 savills.com/research 39 World Residential Markets 2015
AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST SOUTH AFRICA
South Africa enjoys a diversified economy. A constituent of the and 56% to sterling as of July 2015 making the South African ‘BRICS’ association (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), residential market particularly appealing to these purchasers. it is characterised by comparatively wealthy cities and poor n Africa and the Middle East is as diverse as Dubai and Cape Town hinterlands. Cape Town accounts for 6.9% of South Africa’s Foreign investment has been seen across all sectors, notably in still considered a distinctly make themselves accessible and population, but generates 10.6% of the country’s GDP. farmland where it has led to the introduction of the Land Holdings high-risk region by most global friendly to the international market. Bill, which limits the length of long-term leaseholds available to investors so only a few locations At the national level, GDP grew by 1.5% in 2014 and foreigners. Recent government rhetoric around more extensive stand out as investible. n We expect the bulk of unemployment is high, at 25%. In spite of challenging economic reforms has led to uncertainty in the market. Around 7% overseas investment into Africa conditions, the property market is robust and house prices of land in South Africa is currently owned by foreign nationals, up n The potential of this region to remain in large infrastructure remain buoyant. The domestic residential market quickly from less than 5% a decade ago. for real estate investment is vast projects and agricultural land but recovered from the downturn caused by the global financial crisis given the size of population and these will gradually open up more and steadily gained momentum from 2011. Low interest rates, a modest improvement in household rate of urbanisation and economic of the region to other types of disposable income and a marginal strengthening of the overall development. real estate. Resorts serving the A weak Rand puts dollar and sterling buyers in an especially strong economy suggest average house price inflation will be in high wealthy of the region are the next position. Since a 2011 peak it has dropped some 52% to the dollar, single digits this year. n The main barrier will continue to most likely to rise in popularity be fear of geo-political issues and and prominence for real estate conflict but key cities and resorts investors. n
November and January, but high Cape Town and the Western Cape capital values mean that yields, typically under 5%, are significantly Cape Town is South Africa’s The Western Cape’s residential real lower than those in Johannesburg. seat of National Parliament, and estate markets have outperformed Gated developments are also the legislative capital of the the rest of the country in the last three commonplace in South Africa, albeit country. The city, dominated by years, but very recent performance less so in the Western Cape as the Table Mountain, is a global tourist suggests the rate of price growth area is perceived to be safer. Atlantic hotspot with a distinctly European is slowing. Annual residential price seaboard properties are particularly feel. Cape Town is located within growth in the Western Cape of 7.3% desirable given beach access and the wealthy Western Cape. An was posted in the year to June 2015. ocean views. Prime coastal areas important centre of finance and This compares to national increases of are hemmed in between the ocean business services, it is a region 5.3% according to the Pam Golding and the mountains, so land supply characterised by low unemployment Price index. is limited and stock levels in these (by national standards), fertile land, The Cape benefits from a strong locations are restricted, sustaining and wine of worldwide renown. holiday rental market between inflating house prices. n
figure 29 South Africa market performance 2006-2015
n South Africa - transactions n South Africa - prices
200 400,000
350,000 180
300,000
160 250,000
140 200,000 Regional economic statistics and trend 150,000 120
GDP GROWTH UNEMPLOYMENT INTEREST Price index (Jan 06 = 100) Country (12 month total) Transactions RATE 2014 RATE BASE RATE 100,000 100 SOUTH AFRICA 1.5% 25% 6% 50,000 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 4.5% 4.2% 1.0% 80 0 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Source: OECD, IMF, Statistics South Africa, South African Reserve Bank, Central Bank of United Arab Emirates Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Land supply is limited in Cape Town Source: URA
40 savills.com/research 41 World Residential Markets 2015
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
A federation of seven emirates, the UAE is home to the world’s Consequently, the UAE stands out as a ‘safe haven’ for third largest oil reserves, but is undergoing transition into a both local and international investors in the Middle East, diversified economy. Tourism, transportation and financial and attracting businesses and capital from across the region business services, alongside pharmaceuticals and technology, are and into the region. important and growing sectors. Dubai, with comparatively smaller oil reserves, has been boldest in this transition and has reduced Overall, the UAE’s economy has shown volatile growth over the portion of its GDP based on oil and gas output to 25%. the last three decades, but the highs and lows have become less extreme in recent years. Following a sharp contraction of The UAE has also capitalised on its location as the economic growth in 2009, when the economy shrank by 5.2%, mid-point between Europe and Asia, developing hub airports economic growth is currently strong, having resumed in the in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Dubai International Airport is now the region of 5% per annum since 2011. world’s busiest by international passenger traffic. The Dubai International Financial Centre, one of many free trade zones % in the UAE, provides a platform for business and financial 5 institutions to operate in the region. Annual rate of economic growth in figure 30 Dubai Dubai market performance 2006-2015 the UAE since 2011 n Dubai - prices Dubai was opened up to foreign property ownership in 2006, although not all sectors of the city 200 are available for foreign purchase. Fuelled by cheap credit and speculation, prices in the Emirate 160 more than doubled by 2008, but were hit hard by the global financial crisis when debt dried 120 up. Residential values fell by 60% between 2008 and 2011. Almost half of the construction projects 80 in the UAE at the time were put on Price index (2006 = 100) hold or cancelled. After a few years of stagnation, 40 2013 saw recovery, bringing prices within 39% of their former highs. Lessons do appear to have been 0 learned from the previous boom and bust. The government introduced Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 cooling measures in the second half of 2013 in a bid to reduce speculation in property, including Source: Savills World Research mortgage caps and a clampdown on ‘flipping’. The first half of 2015 brought a range of European and Middle with it price falls of 7.7% and lower Eastern markets. transaction volumes, amid a wave of In spite of the slowdown, what new supply and a fall in speculative makes Dubai’s long term prospects investment. Rental growth is slowing stronger than many other centres too, but occupier demand remains in the region is its reputation as as the economy continues to a global centre of business. This strengthen. has been underpinned by the city’s Dubai is the most internationally hosting of the World Expo in 2020. invested city for residential real Strides are being made in estate in the Middle East and improving the city’s infrastructure in much of Dubai’s success is down this car-reliant city. The Dubai tram to its multi-layered appeal as a opened in 2014, complete with air business and leisure destination for conditioned tram stations. n Dubai is an established global centre of business
42 savills.com/research 43 World Residential Markets 2015
Singapore's market cooling measures have been effective on a global level
While the prime sector has slowed, Hong Kong the value of mainstream property ASIA PACIFIC increased by 13.5% in 2014. This Hong Kong enjoys a position was the result of low interest rates alongside London and New York and sustained domestic demand set as a top-tier world city. With a time against restricted supply in this land- zone between the US and Europe, constrained city. Cooling measures, n In a bid to limit house price driven by China’s economy, territories’ further north to form home to the sixth largest stock directed at speculative foreign growth, Asia Pacific stands out which is currently slowing but commuter zones for already dense market in the world it is a major purchasers, affect prime markets among global real estate markets likely to receive further stimulus or fully-developed areas of the city. financial centre, third to New York rather than mainstream ones as being particularly regulated. and whose population will be a and London in the Global Financial If cooling measures are not significant and growing market n Asia Pacific presents huge Centres Index. repealed in the near-term and with n Price cooling measures in the force for decades to come. opportunities as a result of ageing Purchase of Hong Kong property a possible rise in interest rates on form of stamp duty hikes and population and growing consumer by mainland Chinese nationals has the horizon, it is unlikely that prime taxation has had the effect of n World cities in the region are affluence for growth in leisure been a major driver of the city’s prices will resume their former reducing transaction levels in the supply constrained so supply- resorts. We predict that real estate stratospheric price rises as has upward trend. Savills estimates prime markets, most notably in demand imbalances are likely value growth in the newly emerging strong economic growth. luxury apartment prices in 2015 will Hong Kong and Singapore. to increase. Sydney faces the resorts will match that seen in the Hong Kong is now the most remain largely stable. challenges of densification and region’s global cities of late and expensive major world centre in In the longer term, structural n Prospects for future growth in mass transit, Hong Kong and could be where the ‘smart money’ which to buy a residential property. reforms in China will open up the region will be significantly Singapore face the need for ‘new heads next. n Prime values are almost double the country further to outflows of those in London and New York, investment, and directly into other although the gap is narrowing. world city real estate calling into Prime residential values have question Hong Kong’s position as been hit hardest as cooling measures the pre-eminent destination for continue to have an effect, primarily Chinese capital. n on transaction levels in the prime market, while rents are also depressed due to weaker demand from the corporate sector. In common with Singapore, Hong Kong levies an additional 15% stamp duty on foreign 7.2% residential property purchasers. Increase of mainstream Mortgage insurance is required property in Hong Kong on mortgages of more than 70% LTV, while lending is limited to 40% during the first half of 2015 for purchasers with more than one Prime residential values in Hong Kong are almost double those of London property. In a bid to dissuade market speculation ‘Special Stamp Duty’, levied at between 20% and 10%, figure 31 applies for properties re-sold within Hong Kong market performance 2006-2015 six and 36 months.
Turnover was the main casualty n Hong Kong - transactions n Hong Kong - prices n Hong Kong - prime prices of these measures, declining 66.7%
from a high in December 2010 to 350 160,000 a low in March 2014. Transaction
numbers since have seen some 300 140,000 recovery, growing 53.7% to May 2015, but still remain 48.8% 120,000 250 Regional economic statistics and trend below their former high. Prime and mainstream prices, meanwhile, have 100,000 GDP GROWTH UNEMPLOYMENT INTEREST 200 Country also gained traction, growing by RATE 2014 RATE BASE RATE 4.9% and 7.2% respectively in the 80,000 HONG KONG first half of 2015. 150 2.5% 3.3% 0.5% 60,000
100 Price index (Jan 2006 = 100) SINGAPORE 2.8% 2.0% 1.01% (12 month total) Transactions “Hong Kong is now 40,000 CHINA 50 7.4% 4.1% 4.85% the most expensive 20,000 AUSTRALIA 2.7% 6.0% 2.0% major world centre - 0
Source: OECD, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Statistics Singapore, Monetary Authority of Singapore, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, The People’s Bank of China, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Reserve in which to buy a Jul‐2006 Jul ‐2007 Jul ‐2008 Jul ‐2009 Jul‐2010 Jul‐2011 Jul ‐2012 Jul ‐2013 Jul‐2014 Bank of Australia residential property” Jan ‐2006 Jan ‐2007 Jan ‐2008 Jan ‐2009 Jan‐2010 Jan ‐2011 Jan ‐2012 Jan ‐2013 Jan ‐2014 Jan‐2015 Source: Rating and Valuation Department, Savills World Research
44 savills.com/research 45 World Residential Markets 2015
prevent market speculation and the At the end of Q2 2015, prices are SINGAPORE ‘flipping’ of properties, a Seller’s down 6.7% among all private property Stamp Duty applies, at up to 16% from a high of Q3 2013, while total CHINA Singapore’s market cooling of the consideration value if sold annual transaction levels are down measures have been among the within one year, falling to 4% if sold 53.8% over the same period. Residential property investment in China is dominated by Chinese high levels of both local and inward investment from other regions. most effective on a global level. in year three. By contrast the mainstream market nationals and has been extremely active, because real estate has The city has attracted some of the strictest of the new controls, An Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty These measures, coupled with has continued to grow, driven by always been viewed as a reliable store of wealth. Savings rates in which include higher deposit requirements and limitations on (ABSD) of 15% must be paid by a general slowing in Singapore’s domestic owner-occupier demand. China are exceptionally high by global standards. Gross savings as second property purchases. foreign buyers, while Singapore's economy has resulted in a significant Singapore is unusual in that 80% a percentage of GDP stand at 51%, according to World Bank Data permanent residents are levied reduction in transaction levels and of the resident population live in (the figure is 17% in US and 13% in UK). Recent slowing economic growth meant price growth fell to very an additional 5% for their first falling prices in the prime residential publically governed and developed low rates by Chinese standards across the country, just 1.4% in property and 10% for their second market. In common with high-end housing, managed by the Housing This, and the rapid growth of Chinese wealth, fuelled a massive 2014. However, consecutive interest rate reductions and a pick up and subsequent properties. markets across the globe, Singapore’s and Development Board (HBD). Unlike wave of investment into residential real estate over the last two in sentiment have stoked transactional activity in leading cities and Singapore citizens face additional prime market has been the one most most social housing in the developed decades. Between 2003 and 2010 the Chinese economy enjoyed resulted in strong price growth. 27 out of 70 cities tracked by the duties of 7% for their second and favoured by international buyers while world, which is rented, 95% of HBD close to double digit annual growth, and the average price per National Bureau of Statistics recorded a month-on-month increase 10% for their third properties and average mainstream property remains properties are owner-occupied and square metre of new dwellings in China more than doubled. in new build residential prices in June 2015 (compared to only one subsequent properties. In a bid to predominantly domestic. sold on 99 year leases. They may be city Shenzhen seeing price growth at the beginning of 2015). The re-sold freely on the open market (to In efforts to curb this rapid growth and keep affordability levels outlook remains positive as the pick up in sales volumes and a citizens) once minimum occupation in check, the government introduced a series of policies to curb stabilisation of pricing are expected to lower the inventory level. This figure 32 requirements have been met. investment purchases. First tier cities, such as Shanghai, have seen should result in a healthier market in the mid to long run. Singapore market performance 2006-2015 With no changes to the current government curbs or cooling measures n n Singapore - transactions Singapore - prices on the horizon, the private residential market is expected to remain soft. Against this, new supply is likely districts as it strives to meet the 200 50,000 Further falls may be seen in the prime Shanghai to continue to be delivered but at a demands of a rapidly expanding 45,000 180 markets. This could present buying slower rate than previously, meaning population and economy. opportunities as underlying demand Shanghai is China’s largest city prices are likely to hold up much One of the most successful 40,000 160 for real estate is strong, as evidenced and a global financial centre. more than in regions where building infrastructure investments has been 35,000 by commercial property markets. It is host to the world’s busiest has been unfettered. Developers’ the Shanghai metro. Despite being 140 The prime office market in Singapore container port and plays a key role confidence in the Shanghai residential one of the newest systems – the line 30,000 remains bouyant (the result of a dearth in China’s industry. The city attracts market, and the general wariness of only opened in 1993 – it is one of the 120 25,000 in new supply since 2005) and prime migrants from across the country investing in lower-tier cities, means most heavily used, with 2.5 billion office rents are forecast to increase by looking to take advantage of its demand for new land plots will likely journeys taken each year. 20,000 100 3% in 2015 as a result. n job opportunities. These factors remain fierce. This means Shanghai is Such pressure on transport has
15,000 have driven its success in recent unlikely to see the oversupply that is led to a trend toward decentralisation Price index (Jan 2006 = 100) 80 (12 month total) Transactions decades and continue to underpin said to dog some Chinese cities. in Shanghai. Investors are looking 10,000 its prospects for the future as Shanghai has seen strong growth to locations such as Hongqiao 60 the Chinese workforce becomes in the value of small apartments as Transportation Hub, at the centre of 5,000 increasingly mobile at the national large numbers of young professional which the largest railway station in 40 15% 0 and international level. migrants seek city-centre living. Asia by floor space, linking together Rate of Additional Buyer's While Shanghai is an international A shortage of this type of unit has local, high-speed intercity rail and
Q1 06 Q3 06 Q1 07 Q3 07 Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 09 Q3 09 Q1 10 Q3 10 Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1 12 Q3 12 Q1 13 Q3 13 Q1 14 Q3 14 Q1 15 Stamp Duty in Singapore city, it is still dominated by domestic pushed up prices and forced this metro. New mixed-use developments businesses, investors and occupiers. group into secondary locations. To also anchor these decentralised Source: URA This means its residential markets are combat this, Shanghai is using large communities, providing employment driven mainly by domestic factors. scale infrastructure investment to centres and ancillary community and The average price of apartments in unlock these decentralised business shopping facilities. n the city rose from RMB9,313 per sq m ($138psft) in January 2006 to a high figure 33 of RMB30,016 per sq m ($446psft) in China market performance 2006-2014 December 2014, an increase of 222% n Floor space sold (sqm, thousands) n Average price (per sqm) in just eight years. As at June 2015, 6,000 1,200,000 average prices stood 14% above this
level, the result of easing policies and 5,000 1,000,000 improving sentiments. Rental growth has failed to keep pace with capital 4,000 800,000 value growth, and gross yields have been pushed down to 2.3%. 3,000 600,000 The government is taking steps – directly or indirectly – to support 2,000 400,000
the market by easing policies such price (per sqm) Average 1,000 200,000 as giving priorities to mortgages Floor space sold (sqm, thousands) Floor space sold (sqm, thousands) for first-home buyers and relaxing 0 0 the definition of ordinary housing. Sentiment has improved due to lower 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Singapore's prime property is favoured by international buyers borrowing costs and taxes. Source: National Bureau of Statistics
46 savills.com/research 47 World Residential Markets 2015
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
AUSTRALIA
Australia avoided a house price crash like those of Western The unemployment rate is comparatively high, at 6.0%, in part economies because of its high and growing economic wealth due to a slowing of the country’s mining industry, which had at a time when developed economies were contracting. At supported the economy for two decades. Australia’s slowing the same time it avoided a credit boom by retaining strict economy is in part due to its strong ties with cooling Asian lending requirements. Australia’s geographic position also markets and global demand for raw materials has declined. helped, supplying a booming Asia with raw materials, goods and services. In spite of this, residential prices have continued to grow. Interest rates are at a record low of 2%, having been cut 25 The government response was timely too, it introduced a basis points in May 2015. The market is further supported by generous scheme to support first time buyers in 2008. This, and foreign nationals, notably the Chinese, who need approval continued immigration fuelled demand against a shortage of from the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) to purchase new supply which helped to keep prices growing. property (in common with all overseas buyers), and are restricted to new property or vacant land. Australian GDP grew by 2.7% in 2014, which was higher than 2013’s 2.1%, but down on the 3.7% growth achieved in 2012.
figure 34 Sydney Australia market performance 2006-2015
Prices in Sydney grew by 12.2% in n Australia - transactions n Eight capital cities - prices n Sydney - prices 2014, according to ABS, compared to an average of 6.8% across the 170 600,000 eight capital cities as a whole. 160 Rents are among the highest in % 500,000 Australia – but rising at a slower 150 7.2 rate than capital values so yields are diminishing. (Currently Sydney's 140 400,000 Australia's residential gross yields stand at 4.1% which is lower than other 130 annual export 300,000 Australian cities and asset classes). 120 growth 2014 Sydney, in common with most mature world cities, is restricted by 110 200,000 Price index (Q1 2006 = 100)
land availability through geographical (12 month total) Transactions limitations, zoning restrictions 100 and limited land release. As a 100,000 90 consequence, the city suffers from
the same supply/demand imbalances 80 0 of many of its global contemporaries though it has far fewer international
buyers competing in its local markets. Q1 2006 Q3 2006 Q1 2007 Q3 2007 Q1 2008 Q3 2008 Q1 2009 Q3 2009 Q1 2010 Q3 2010 Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Recently, the strong residential Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics market has created an expectation of capital gains which has encouraged domestic investors and increased oversupply and putting capital values rental supply, particularly in the new more on a par with rents. Sydney build sector. This has suppressed seems set for a period of slower capital rents and yields, suggesting that the growth while owner occupier and market may have become overly rental occupier markets readjust in line speculative. with each other. While, in the longer term, we expect In the medium to long term, strong occupier demand on the back prospects for the city still look good. of a strong economy and immigration Demand for city centre locations is from Pacific Asia, it seems likely that still strong, particularly from younger there will be some adjustment in the generations. This means that ‘City’ near term. Slower capital growth Sydney is set to perform best over will likely start to redirect investors the next five years and development to other Australian cities or asset opportunities will continue be focused classes, thereby correcting any letting on an intensification of the centre. n Demand for property remains high in Sydney
48 savills.com/research 49 World Residential Markets
Outlook a sense of adventure Research Publications n The World and London n 12 Cities | US Special Investors are seeking opportunities in more peripheral locations and n Tech Cities higher-yielding secondary property as an alternative to first-tier cities
verall, we sense at the discounted values of the post the global market 2008 market. cycle is now moving Those looking at the longer term on a stage. Both will find an increasing number of new occupiers and opportunities in resort property, both Oinvestors have been clinging to established locations in which Asians first-tier cities and prime property start buying and in new locations and like limpets to a rock in times leisure property types within Asia. For more publications, visit savills.com/research of global turmoil and economic We foresee an increasingly Follow us on Twitter @Savills uncertainty but, as this abates, they diversified global residential property are becoming more adventurous. market offering considerable Investors are now beginning to opportunity and we have covered peel away from the expensive centre some of its more important markets and seeking alternatives in more and market trends in this report. n peripheral locations and higher-yielding secondary property. They are also looking at cheaper and higher yielding second-tier cities, especially in Europe and the USA, where there may be prospects of economic outperformance and high population growth. Non-city property Resorts are regaining such as resorts that were popular in attraction to investors the nineties and noughties are also regaining their attraction, particularly
Savills team World Research International Residential
Yolande Barnes Paul Tostevin Hugo Thistlethwayte World Research World Research Head of International Residential (London Desk) +44 (0) 207 409 8899 +44 (0) 207 016 3883 +44 (0) 207 409 8876 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Savills plc Savills is a leading global real estate service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. The company established in 1855, has a rich heritage with unrivalled growth. It is a company that leads rather than follows, and now has over 600 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East.
This report is for general informative purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or quoted in part or in whole, nor may it be used as a basis for any contract, prospectus, agreement or other document without prior consent. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research.
50 33 Margaret Street London W1G 0JD 020 7499 8644 savills.com