Malaysia Telekom Malaysia
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PP16832/01/2013 (031128) PP16832/01/2012 (029059) Malaysia Results Review 3 December 2012 17 October 2011 Sell (from Buy) Telekom Malaysia Prefer Axiata Share price: MYR5.47 Voice slowing, Unifi hiccuping. Although 3Q12 results were within Target price: MYR5.10 (from MYR6.60) expectations, uncertainties around continued Unifi expansion in the face of Maxis’ challenge, along with expensive valuations, slowing Gregory Yap growth and non-supportive dividend yield, prompts us to downgrade TM [email protected] to a SELL. Our DCF TP is cut to MYR5.10 as we adopt a higher equity (65) 6432 1450 risk premium and beta following recent volatility. Switch to Axiata (BUY, TP: MYR6.70), which is cheaper, has faster forecasted growth, has a Wong Chew Hann [email protected] higher dividend yield and potential for capital management initiatives. (03) 2297 8686 Marginally within expectations. On the surface, 3Q12 was inline. Core net profit rose 35.5% YoY to MYR186m after stripping out a MYR283.5m gain from Axiata share sales in 3Q11. 9M12 net profit of MYR592m comprised 72% of our MYR823m full year forecast, but the bottomline was padded by a number of things, including last mile tax Stock Information incentives and foreign exchange differences that makes it a bit difficult Description: National fixed-line info-telecommunications to tell. The best we can say is it was marginally within expectations. monopoly with only nation-wide triple-play offerings. Voice fell, Unifi the culprit? Voice performance was lower by more Ticker: T MK Shares Issued (m): 3577.4 than 4% both YoY and QoQ. This could be partially explained by the Market Cap (USD m): 6438.2 festive season as it affected the consumer, SME and enterprise 3-mth Avg Daily Turnover (USD m): 19.1 businesses. However, while voice has been falling for some time now, KLCI: 1610.8 Free float (%): 46.4 this quarter’s decline appears to be more intense. TM could be a victim of its own success in fixed broadband; some cannibalisation of voice Major Shareholders: % revenue could have taken place as data speeds increased. KHAZANAH NASIONAL 28.7 EPF 14.3 Unifi starting to hiccup on Maxis challenge. While Unifi net-add of SKIM AMANAH SAHAM 10.6 43,000 was below the last few quarters’ runrate, this was largely due to Key Indicators termination of delinquent accounts. However, we would be wary at this ROE – annualised (%) 11.4 stage as Maxis is mounting a strong challenge with its cheaper home Net debt/EBITDA (x): 1.0 fibre service. This will be offset to some extent by higher wholesale NTA/shr (MYR): 1.73 revenue but we would not surprised if the slowdown continues as TM Historical Chart reaches the end of its government subsidised rollout. Downgrade to SELL, switch to Axiata. We downgrade TM to SELL. It is expensive at 24x and 23x PER for 4-5% growth, with minimal support from dividends of <4%. Chances for capital management are also minimal without non-core asset sales. Axiata trades at 18.5x and 17x earnings with FY12 growth to pick up to 10% from <6% this year, and dividend yield is superior at almost 5% before special payouts. Telekom – Summary Earnings Table Source: Maybank KE FYE Dec (MYR m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F Revenue 8,791.0 9,151.0 9,972.2 10,529.1 10,864.3 EBITDA 2,924.3 3,086.7 3,217.8 3,439.3 3,497.9 Recurring Net Profit 563.7 634.8 823.3 862.6 905.2 Recurring Basic EPS (sen) 15.9 17.8 23.0 24.1 25.3 EPS growth (%) 42.6 12.1 29.5 4.8 4.9 DPS (cents) 19.6 49.6 20.7 21.7 22.8 PER 34.5 30.8 23.8 22.7 21.6 Performance: EV/EBITDA (x) 7.6 7.2 7.4 6.8 6.5 52-week High/Low MYR6.40/MYR4.04 Div Yield (%) 3.6 9.1 3.8 4.0 4.2 P/BV(x) 2.8 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 1-mth 3-mth 6-mth 1-yr YTD Net Gearing (%) 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.9 ROE (%) 16.4% 16.2% 15.7% 14.6% 14.9% Absolute (%) -9.0 -8.7 7.4 35.4 16.0 ROA (%) 5.9% 5.7% 5.0% 4.4% 4.5% Relative (%) -5.5 -6.7 5.4 23.8 10.3 Consensus Net Profit (MYR m) na na 809.6 886.9 983.6 SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Page 1 of 2 Telekom Malaysia 17 October 2011 Figure 1: Latest Results Summary Quarterly Cumulative (RM m) 3Q12 3Q11 %YoY 2Q12 %QoQ 9M12 9M11 %YoY Revenue 2375 2322 2.3 2425 -2.0 7184 6704 7.2 EBITDA 752 813 -7.5 797 -5.8 2332 2290 1.8 EBIT 222 510 -56.4 297 -25.1 793 979 (19.0) Net Interest 16 -173 NM -112 NM -69 -208 (66.7) Pre-tax profit 239 337 -29.3 186 28.5 723 772 (6.2) Net Profit 301 302 -0.3 349 -13.5 901 593 51.9 Recurring Net Profit 186 137 35.5 223 -16.5 592 395 50.1 Basic EPS (sen) 8.4 8.4 -0.3 9.7 -13.5 25.2 8.4 198.0 Net DPS (sen) 0.0 0.0 NM 9.8 NM 9.8 9.8 0.0 Net cash/(debt) -4004 -2887 38.7 -2954 35.6 -4004 -2887 38.7 Net debt/EBITDA (x) 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.3 0.9 Revenue by Segment (RM m) Retail (excluding inter-co) 1788 1817 -1.6 1831 -2.3 5419 5215 3.9 Wholesale (excluding inter-co) 257 191 34.6 187 37.4 626 569 10.0 Global (excluding inter-co) 189 215 -12.1 212 -10.8 626 588 6.5 Others (excluding inter-co) 141 99 43.3 195 -27.5 513 332 54.8 Total Revenue (excluding inter-co) 2375 2322 2.3 2425 -2.0 7184 6704 7.2 EBIT by Segment (RM m) Retail 210 202 3.6 289 -27.4 787 705 11.6 Wholesale 41 40 1.5 22 80.8 85 110 (22.7) Global 10 67 -85.5 20 -51.0 49 92 (46.3) Others -37 201 NM -34 11.0 -129 72 NM Total EBIT 222 510 -56.4 297 -25.1 793 979 (19.0) +/- ppts +/- ppts EBIT margin by Segment (%) YoY QoQ Retail 11.7 11.1 0.6 15.8 -4.0 14.5 13.5 1.0 Wholesale 15.8 20.9 -5.1 12.0 3.8 13.6 19.4 -5.8 Global 5.1 31.1 -26.0 9.3 -4.2 7.9 15.6 -7.7 Normalised EBITDA margin (%) 31.4 34.6 -3.2 32.3 -0.9 32.5 34.2 -1.7 Source: Company Figure 2: Selected operating metrics Segmental Revenue 3Q12 3Q11 %YoY 2Q12 %QoQ 9M12 9M11 %YoY Retail 1,788 1,724 3.7 1,831 (2.3) 5419.0 5021.0 7.9 Consumer 666 629 5.9 671 (0.7) 1993.0 1820.0 9.5 SME 475 458 3.7 486 (2.3) 1424.0 1365.0 4.3 Enterprise 275 276 (0.4) 277 (0.7) 819.0 820.0 -0.1 Government 372 361 3.0 397 (6.3) 1183.0 1016.0 16.4 Wholesale 197 191 3.1 187 5.3 567.0 569.0 -0.4 Global 189 215 (12.1) 212 (10.8) 626.0 589.0 6.3 Others 201 191 5.2 195 3.1 571.0 524.0 9.0 Operational Data 3Q12 3Q11 %YoY 2Q12 %QoQ 9M12 9M11 %YoY Broadband (Streamyx) Residential ('000) 1,309 1,393 (6.0) 1,330 (1.6) 1309 1393 -6.0 Business ('000) 292 314 (7.0) 297 (1.7) 292 314 -7.0 Subscribers, period end (m) 1,601 1,707 (6.2) 1,627 (1.6) 1601 1707 -6.2 QoQ Net-adds ('000) (26) (14) (31) -106 111 Broadband (Unifi) Residential ('000) 359 140 156.7 326 10.3 359 140 156.7 Business ('000) 68 24 177.7 58 16.3 68 24 177.7 Subscribers, period end (m) 427 164 159.9 384 11.2 427 164 159.9 QoQ Net-adds ('000) 43 55 68 263 150 Source: Company 3 December 2012 Page 2 of 7 Page 1 of 2 Telekom Malaysia 17 October 2011 INCOME STATEMENT (MYR m) BALANCE SHEET (MYR m) FY Dec 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F FY Dec 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F Revenue 9,151.0 9,972.2 10,529.1 10,864.3 Fixed Assets 13,613.0 14,085.0 14,242.7 14,377.5 EBITDA 3,086.7 3,217.8 3,439.3 3,497.9 Other LT Assets 833.2 874.6 919.5 968.5 Depr & Amort (2,128.0) (2,042.3) (2,065.2) (2,084.7) Cash/ST Investments 4,213.0 2,060.4 2,179.5 2,201.3 Operating Profit (EBIT) 1,245.2 1,275.4 1,474.1 1,513.2 Other Current Assets 2,712.5 3,349.5 3,516.2 3,614.5 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (243.8) (189.5) (176.0) (146.0) Total Assets 21,371.7 20,369.5 20,857.9 21,161.7 Assoc & JV (0.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 One-offs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ST Debt 552.2 600.0 600.0 600.0 Pretax Profit 1,001.3 1,085.9 1,298.2 1,367.1 Other Current Liabilities 3,634.0 3,811.3 4,406.5 4,628.2 Tax 235.9 2.9 (324.5) (341.8) LT Debt 6,421.6 5,847.8 5,321.8 4,795.8 Minority Interest (46.1) (53.0) (61.0) (70.1) Other LT Liabilities 3,632.3 3,704.0 3,926.1 4,323.5 Net Profit 1,191.1 1,035.8 912.6 955.2 Minority Interest 162.9 215.9 276.9 347.0 Recurring Net Profit 634.8 823.3 862.6 905.2 Shareholders' Equity 6,968.8 6,190.4 6,326.7 6,467.2 Total Liabilities-Capital 21,371.8 20,369.5 20,857.9 21,161.7 Revenue Growth (%) 4.1% 9.0% 5.6% 3.2% EBITDA Growth (%) 5.6% 4.2% 6.9% 1.7% Share Capital (m) 3,577.4 3,577.4 3,577.4 3,577.4 EBIT Growth (%) (4.3%) 2.4% 15.6% 2.6% Gross Debt/(Cash) 6,973.8 6,447.8 5,921.8 5,395.8 Net Profit Growth (%) (1.3%) (13.0%) (11.9%) 4.7% Net Debt/(Cash) 2,760.8 4,387.4 3,742.3 3,194.5 Recurring Net Profit Growth (%) 12.6% 29.7% 4.8% 4.9% Working Capital 2,739.3 998.6 689.2 587.5 EPS Growth (%) 12.1% 29.5% 4.8% 4.9% Recurring EPS Growth (%) 12.1% 29.5% 4.8% 4.9% Tax Rate (%) (23.6%) (0.3%) 25.0% 25.0% CASH FLOW (MYR m) RATES & RATIOS FY Dec 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F FY Dec 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F Profit before taxation 1,001.3 1,085.9 1,298.2 1,367.1 EBITDA Margin % 33.7% 32.3% 32.7% 32.2% Depreciation 2,128.0 2,042.3 2,065.2 2,084.7 Op.