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Economic Performance and Prospects

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Economic Performance and Prospects ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE 3 AND PROSPECTS Chapter 3.indd 63 10/4/14 1:36 AM ECONOMIC REPORT 2014 / 2015 ECONOMIC REPORT 2014 / 2015 Prospects Economic Performance and 64 Chapter 3.indd 64 10/4/14 1:36 AM ECONOMIC REPORT 2014 / 2015 ECONOMIC REPORT 2014 / 2015 Economic Performance and CHAPTER 3 Prospects Overview mainly due to the high-base effect of export performance from the previous year. For 2014, Strong and broad-based growth the economy is projected to grow 5.5% – 6% (2013: 4.7%), which is higher than the initial rowth of the Malaysian economy accelerated forecast of 4.5% – 5.5% in early 2014. Gto 6.4% in the second quarter of 2014 from 6.2% in the first quarter, marking the strongest On the demand side, growth will be underpinned growth since the fourth quarter in 2010, and by resilient consumer spending, strong private bringing the first half growth to 6.3%. Growth investment activity and improving global was supported by resilient domestic demand demand. Consumer spending is envisaged to be and reinforced by higher exports. The faster sustained, albeit at a moderate pace, supported pace of recovery, particularly in the US, UK by favourable labour market conditions, continued Economic Performance and and selected euro area economies as well as wage growth and firm export earnings. Private moderate growth in the emerging economies investment is expected to sustain its strong provided strong support to the Malaysian export- growth momentum supported by the ongoing Prospects oriented industries and trade-related services. Of projects under the Economic Transformation significance, global semiconductor demand also Programme (ETP) and investment in the rebounded strongly as business confidence and regional economic growth corridors. Meanwhile, consumer spending in the US improved amid public expenditure is envisaged to expand at diminishing inventory overhang. Consequently, a slower pace in line with the Government’s gross exports rebounded strongly by 10.7% during commitment to fiscal consolidation. Public the first seven months of 2014 from a contraction consumption is expected to moderate due to lower of 2.8% in the corresponding period in 2013. growth on emoluments, while public investment will continue to expand supported by higher capital Meanwhile, the Malaysian economy has benefited spending of Non-Financial Public Enterprises from several initiatives and reforms taken (NFPEs). over the years to enhance its resilience and competitiveness. Consequently, Malaysia is now On the supply side, all sectors are expected well placed to gain further from the gradual global to record positive growth in 2014, with the recovery with a more broad-based growth. The services and manufacturing sectors spearheading nation’s strengths include: strong macroeconomic growth. The services sector is expected to grow fundamentals such as a diversified economy; strongly, with wholesale trade, transport and low unemployment; strong international reserves; storage benefiting from higher trade-related growing role of the private sector as the driver activities. Meanwhile, activities in retail trade, of growth with its share of investment currently accommodation and restaurants as well as accounting for 68.9% of total investment during communication are expected to increase amid the first half of 2014; and a healthy financial sustained household spending. The manufacturing system to support economic activity. Thus, the sector is estimated to grow at a faster pace on domestic economy will continue to expand in higher exports of electronics and electrical (E&E) the second half of the year, albeit moderately, products as external demand improves. Sales and 65 Chapter 3.indd 65 10/4/14 1:36 AM ECONOMIC REPORT 2014 / 2015 ECONOMIC REPORT 2014 / 2015 exports of personal computers (PCs) and related investing abroad. Meanwhile, higher remittances parts have rebounded supported by improved by foreign workers in Malaysia will see a global demand and declining inventory. Growth marginally higher deficit in the secondary income of the domestic-oriented industries such as account due to the full implementation of the food and beverage as well as transportation Minimum Wage Policy effective from January equipment and machinery is expected to remain 2014. The financial account will see steady favourable, in line with resilient domestic two-way flows as foreign direct investment consumption and robust private investment. (FDI) is expected to increase underpinned by The construction sector is expected to further favourable growth prospects for the economy expand supported by the civil engineering and while Malaysian companies will continue to have residential subsectors. The civil engineering a strong presence abroad to improve corporate subsector will be driven by oil and gas (O&G) profitability and increase market share in niche as well as transportation projects. Meanwhile, sectors. growth in the residential subsector is mainly due to the construction of private residential projects Headline inflation averaged 3.3% in the first eight ranging from medium to high-end properties, months of 2014 compared with 1.7% during the particularly in the Klang Valley, Pulau Pinang corresponding period in 2013. Besides increased and Johor. Prospects for the agriculture sector prices of food due to domestic cost factors, the in 2014 will also remain favourable, supported by higher inflation largely reflected the spillover higher production of crude palm oil (CPO) and effects of the price adjustment on fuel following food, especially poultry, fruits and vegetables. the subsidy rationalisation in September 2013 The mining sector is expected to grow backed and the electricity tariff hike in January 2014. by the increase in production of natural gas Producer inflation, as measured by the Producer and crude oil (including condensates) following Price Index, also rose 2.9% in the first seven Prospects capacity enhancement and new production months of 2014 compared with a decline of facilities. 3.7% during the corresponding period in 2013. Economic Performance and In tandem with fiscal consolidation, the subsidy Malaysia's external position is anticipated to on petrol RON95 and diesel was further reduced remain favourable in 2014 supported by an by 20 cent per litre on 2 October 2014. Based improving external environment, upturn in on these developments, inflation is expected at global semiconductor sales, as well as resilient around 3.4% in 2014. With inflation expected at domestic and regional demand. For the year, remain above its long-run average, Bank Negara the current account is expected to post a higher Malaysia (BNM) raised the Overnight Policy Rate surplus of RM53.9 billion or 5.1% of Gross (OPR) by 25 basis points to 3.25% in July 2014, National Income (GNI), driven by a higher as a pre-emptive move, to mitigate the risks of surplus in goods and services and a smaller economic and financial imbalances that could deficit in the primary income accounts amid undermine growth of the economy. a marginal increase in net outflows in the secondary income account. Boosted by strong In line with the better economic growth, national external demand for manufactured products income as measured by the nominal GNI, and stable commodity prices, exports are is estimated to expand 10.2% to RM1,049.5 expected to grow 6%. Import growth will billion in 2014, surpassing for the first time, remain resilient at 4.3% supported by continued the RM1-trillion mark (2013: 5.2%; RM952.6 expansion in manufacturing, investment and billion), while per capita income will increase consumption activities. The services and primary 8.9% to RM34,682 (2013: 3.7%; RM31,843). In income deficits are expected to improve on terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), per account of higher net travel receipts and capita income is expected to increase 2.2% to improved earnings of Malaysian companies USD22,958 (2013: 4.8%; USD22,460). 66 Chapter 3.indd 66 10/4/14 1:36 AM ECONOMIC REPORT 2014 / 2015 ECONOMIC REPORT 2014 / 2015 TABLE 3.1 GDP by Sector 2013 – 2015 (at constant 2005 prices) Change Share to GDP Contribution to (%) (%) GDP growth (percentage point) 2013 20141 20152 2013 20141 20152 2013 20141 20152 Agriculture 2.1 3.8 3.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 0.1 0.3 0.2 Mining 0.7 0.7 2.8 8.1 7.7 7.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 Manufacturing 3.5 6.4 5.5 24.5 24.7 24.8 0.9 1.5 1.4 Construction 10.9 12.7 10.7 3.8 4.0 4.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 Services 5.9 5.9 5.6 55.2 55.3 55.4 3.2 3.3 3.1 Add: Import duties 5.8 7.3 -4.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 GDP 4.7 5.5 – 6.0 5.0 – 6.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 4.7 5.5 – 6.0 5.0 – 6.0 1 Estimate. 2 Forecast. Note: Total may not add up due to rounding. Source: Department of Statistics and Ministry of Finance, Malaysia. Economic Performance and Sectoral Performance consumption and investment activities. In 2014, Prospects the services sector is expected to record 5.9% During the first half of 2014, all sectors recorded growth, accounting for 55.3% of GDP (2013: 5.9%; expansion, with growth driven by the services 55.2%). The intermediate services group is and manufacturing sectors, amid resilient anticipated to grow 5.2% (2013: 5.1%) supported domestic demand and an improving external by the communication as well as real estate and sector. The services sector expanded further business services subsectors. Meanwhile, the led by strong activity in the wholesale and retail final services group is expected to increase trade as well as communication subsectors. 6.5% (2013: 5.8%) led by the wholesale and Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector expanded retail trade, accommodation and restaurant as strongly, the highest growth in three years, well as other services subsectors.
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