CROP CIRCLES HYPE, , AND HOOPLA

Mars Effect / Melanin Magic ^t Skeptics Battle Lawsuits THE is the official journal of the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the , an international organization. Editor Kendrick Frazier. Editorial Board James E. Alcock, Martin Gardner, Ray Hyman, Philip J. Klass, . Consulting Editors Isaac Asimov, William Sims Bainbridge, John R. Cole, Kenneth L. Feder, C. E. M. Hansel, E. C. Krupp, David F. Marks, Andrew Neher, James E. Oberg, Robert Sheaffer, Steven N. Shore. Managing Editor Doris Hawley Doyle. Contributing Editor Lys Ann Shore. Business Manager Mary Rose Hays. Art Jacqueline Cooke. Chief Data Officer Richard Seymour. Computer Assistant Michael Gone. Typesetting Paul E. Loynes. Audio Technician Vance Vigrass. Librarian, Ranjit Sandhu. Staff Leland Harrington, Sandra Lesniak, Alfreda Pidgeon, Kathy Reeves, Elizabeth Begley (Albuquerque). Cartoonist Rob Pudim. The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal Paul Kurtz, Chairman; professor emeritus of philosophy. State University of New York at Buffalo. Barry Karr, Executive Director and Public Relations Director. Lee Nisbet, Special Projects Director. Fellows of the Committee (partial list) James E. Alcock, psychologist, York Univ., Toronto; Isaac Asimov, biochemist, author; Robert A. Baker, psychologist, Univ. of Kentucky; Irving Biederman, psychologist, University of Minnesota; Susan Blackmore, psychologist, Brain Perception Laboratory, University of Bristol, England; Henri Broch, physicist, University of Nice, France; Mario Bunge, philosopher, McGill University; John R. Cole, anthropologist, Institute for the Study of Human Issues; F. H. C. Crick, biophysicist, Salk Institute for Biological Studies, La Jolla, Calif.; L. Sprague de Camp, author, engineer; Cornells de Jager, professor of astrophysics, Univ. of Utrecht, the Netherlands; Bernard Dixon, science writer, London, U.K.: Paul Edwards, philosopher, Editor, Encyclopedia of Philosophy; Antony Flew, philosopher, Reading Univ., U.K.; Andrew Fraknoi, astronomer, executive officer, Astronomical Society of the Pacific; editor of Mercury; Kendrick Frazier, science writer, Editor, THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER; Yves Galifret, Exec. Secretary, L'Union Rationaliste; Martin Gardner, author, critic; Murray Gell-Mann, professor of physics, California Institute of Technology; Henry Gordon, magician, columnist, broadcaster, Toronto; , Museum of Comparative Zoology, Harvard Univ.; C. E. M. Hansel, psychologist, Univ. of Wales; AI Hibbs, scientist, Jet Propulsion Laboratory; Douglas Hofstadter, professor of human understanding and cognitive science, Indiana University; Ray Hyman, psychologist, Univ. of Oregon; Leon-Jaroff, sciences editor. Time; Lawrence Jerome, science writer, engineer; Philip J. Klass, science writer, engineer; Marvin Kohl, professor of philosophy, SUNY at Fredonia; Edwin C. Krupp, astronomer, director, Griffith Observatory; Paul Kurtz, chairman, CSICOP, Buffalo, N.Y.; Lawrence Kusche, science writer; Paul MacCready, scientist/engineer, AeroVironment, Inc., Monrovia, Calif.; David Marks, psychologist, Middlesex Polytech, England; David Morrison, space scientist, NASA Ames Research Center; Richard A. Muller, professor of physics, Univ. of Calif., Berkeley; H. Narasimhaiah, physicist, president. Bangalore Science Forum, India; Dorothy Nelkin, sociologist, Cornell University. Joe Nickel), author, technical writing instructor, University of Kentucky; Lee Nisbet, philosopher, Medaille College; James E. Oberg, science writer; John Paulos, mathematician, Temple University; Mark Plummer, lawyer, Australia; W. V. Quine, philosopher, Harvard Univ.; Milton Rosenberg, psychologist. University of Chicago; , astronomer, Cornell Univ.; Evry Schatz- man, President, French Physics Association; Eugenie Scott, physical anthropologist, executive director, National Center for Science Education, Inc.; Thomas A. Sebeok, anthropologist, linguist, Indiana University; Robert Sheaffer, science writer; Dick Smith, film producer, publisher, Terrey Hills, N.S.W., Australia; Robert Steiner, magician, author, El Cerrito, California; Carol Tavris, psychologist, UCLA; Stephen Toulmin, professor of philosophy. Northwestern Univ.; Marvin Zelen, statistician. Harvard Univ. (Affilia­ tions given for identification only.)

Manuscripts, letters, books for review, and editorial inquiries should be addressed to Kendrick Frazier, Editor, THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, 3025 Palo Alto Dr., N.E., Albuquerque, NM 87111. Subscriptions, change of address, and should be addressed to: THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Box 703, Buffalo, NY 14226-0703. Old address as well as new are necessary for change of subscriber's address, with six weeks advance notice. Subscribers to THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER may not speak on behalf of CSICOP or THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. Inquiries from the media and the public about the work of the Committee should be made to Paul Kurtz, Chairman, CSICOP, Box 703, Buffalo, NY 14226-0703. Tel: (716) 636-1425. FAX: (716)-636-1733. Articles, reports, reviews, and letters published in THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER represent the views and work of individual authors. Their publication does not necessarily constitute an endorsement by CSICOP or its members unless so stated. THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is indexed in the Readers' Guide to Periodical literature. Copyright *1992 by the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal, 3965 Rensch Road, Buffalo, NY 14228. All rights reserved. THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is available on 16mm microfilm, 35mm microfilm, and 105mm microfiche from University Microfilms International. Subscription Rates: Individuals, libraries, and institutions, $25.00 a year; back issues, $6.25 each. Postmaster: THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is published quarterly. Winter, Spring, Summer, and Fall. Printed in the U.S.A. Second-class postage paid at Buffalo, New York, and additional mailing offices. Send changes of address to THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, BOX 703, Buffalo, NY 14226-0703. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Vol. 16, No. 2, Winter 1992 ] ISSN 0194-6730 Journal of the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal FROM THE CHAIRMAN On Being Sued: The Chilling of Freedom of Expression Paul Kurtz 114 ARTICLES The Crop-Circle Phenomenon: An Investigative Report and John F. Fischer 136 Update on the 'Mars Effect Suttbert&tel 150 A Dissenting Note on Ertel's "Update' Paul Kurtz 161 Magic Melanin: Spreading Scientific Illiteracy Among Minorities: Part II Bernard Ortiz de Montellano 162 Adventures In Science and Cyclosophy Cornells de Jager 167 Searching for Security In the Mystical Martin R. Grimmer 173 NEWS AND COMMENT 120 EuroSkeptlcs 1991 Conference / Cold Fusion Chicken / $565,000 Settlement Against Ferrerl/ Another Job for Pell's Aide / CD / Another Savvy Stylebook / A Call from Elvis? / No More 666s J NOTES OF A FRINGE-WATCHER Probability Paradoxes Martin Gardner 129 ] PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS Creationists, Cosmologies, and Crashes Robert Sheaffer 133 BOOK REVIEWS Thomas Gilovlch, How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reasoning In Everyday Life Robert Kinnison 177 Frank Close, Too Hot to Handle Terence Hines 179 JamesRandi: Psychic Investigator, the TV series and the book Wendy M. Grossman 182 Richard J. Brenneman, Deadly Blessings: Faith Healing on Trial David Lonergan 184 Keith S. Thomson, Living Fossil Paul T. Riddell18 5

1 NEW BOOKS 187

ARTICLES OF NOTE 188

FOLLOW-UP 192 Three-Door- Problem Provokes Letters, Controversy / Mims Responds to Gardner and Gardner Replies FORUM 204

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR 212 CSICOP NEWS 221

Cover photo: Crawley "pictogram" near Salisbury, July 31,1990, courtesy Busty Taylor / Centre for Crop Circle Studies. Cover design by Jacqueline Cooke. From the Chairman

On Being Sued: The Chilling of Freedom of Expression PAUL KURTZ

t is not often that I agree with Vice- proclaimed "psychic," was entered in President Dan Quayle. His recent 1991 and demands damages of $15 I speech to the American Bar Asso­ million. (An earlier suit by Geller in ciation meeting in Atlanta, however, New York against Randi and CSICOP has made a telling point. For CSICOP was dismissed on a technicality for it and two other organizations with exceeded the statute of limitations— which I am affiliated have been a complaint must be entered no later threatened by at least 19 lawsuits over than one year after an alleged libel the years and are currently actively incident occurs.) involved in four. Mr. Quayle asked, The Byrd and Geller cases have "Does America really need 70 percent received considerable media attention. of the world's lawyers?" And he Many people have asked what deplored the drain on our economy CSICOP's position is regarding these caused by an estimated 18 million new suits. We have been under strict litigation cases every year. Quayle instructions from our attorneys, pointed out "the staggering expense however, to limit our public com­ and delay" that the system caused. He ments. Some people, friends as well focused most directly on the abuse of as critics, have accused CSICOP of discovery, pre-trial interrogatories "abandoning ." Others and depositions, and the dangers of have asked if we are unconcerned that the unbridled punitive damages now free speech is being stifled by such being awarded. suits. Randi has even resigned from At the present time CSICOP is CSICOP in order to protect it from named as codefendant along with further suits. James Randi in two libel suits. The I think that some clarification is in first, initiated in 1989 by Eldon Byrd, order. Let me state right off that we a Maryland "paranormal researcher," have not abandoned James Randi, and requests $38 million in damages. The we are keenly sensitive to the effort second, by , the self- by some to silence CSICOP and its supporters. My remarks here also are tempered by legal constraints. Never­ A longer version of this article appeared in the CSICOP newsletter, Skeptical Briefs (vol. theless, I would like to make several 1, no. 3). points; and especially to demonstrate

114 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 the difficult and perilous situation that made to that newspaper about Geller. the now faces. Although CSICOP was not even men­ At the present time, CSICOP is tioned in the article, nor was CSICOP partially covered by libel insurance. aware of the article until well after These policies are designed to protect publication, it has nevertheless also CSICOP, the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, been named in the suit. Our new Skeptical Briefs, and CSICOP's other insurance carrier has refused to cover publications. They also serve to either Randi or CSICOP in this case, protect the officers and members of claiming that its coverage was not the Board of Directors and the Exec­ blanket, and that it was not to be utive Council of CSICOP should a construed so broadly as to cover any lawsuit be brought against them or all remarks that anyone associated pertaining to any official statements with CSICOP in any capacity made made on CSICOP's behalf in its anywhere in the world. publications or at its conferences. These suits presented a profound Usually when a suit has been filed quandary for the CSICOP Executive we must retain counsel in the city or Council, for its members are deeply district where it is filed, which is appreciative, indeed extremely, grate­ an onerous burden of time and ful, for Randi's longstanding defense expense. of rationality and his critiques of In the Eldon Byrd case, CSICOP paranormal claims, and none of us is covered by Kemper Insurance would want skeptics to be intimidated Company by a policy that has since by those who may seek to silence been amended to remove coverage for them. libel. Kemper agreed to cover CSICOP However, the question is: Should for the Byrd case because the alleged CSICOP be held liable for any and all incidents for which the suit was remarks that Randi has made? The entered occurred prior to this change. Executive Council has been unanim­ Kemper Insurance, however declined ous in its view that CSICOP could not to cover James Randi in the Byrd case, as a corporate body be held responsible because he was not acting as an agent for anything and everything that of CSICOP and was not authorized might be said by anyone associated by CSICOP to make these remarks. with CSICOP—whether a fellow, a He was not acting within the scope scientific consultant, a member of the of his duties as a member of CSICOP's Executive Council, or a sympathetic Executive Council. The lawsuit con­ skeptic. To do so would expose cerns published statements about CSICOP to such risk that we could Byrd's personal life that Randi is said no longer function as a viable organ­ to have made in an interview in Twi­ ization. This has been the longstand­ light Zone magazine (which is now ing official policy of CSICOP pub­ defunct) and remarks also allegedly lished and reiterated many times. Not made by Randi in a question-and- only did Randi consistently agree with answer period following a speech at this basic policy of CSICOP while he a meeting of the New York Area Skep­ was a member of the Executive Coun­ tics (an independent, autonomous cil, but he explicitly informed CSI- skeptics group). COPs Executive Council on and off the record on several occasions that In the second suit now being he was speaking as an individual and contested, Uri Geller is suing Randi, not on behalf of CSICOP at the times CSICOP, and the International Herald he allegedly made the statements that Tribune for statements Randi allegedly

Winter 1992 115 are the basis of the Byrd and Geller strained by our lawyers from repeat­ suits. ing Randi's alleged remarks for fear CSICOP's policy applies equally to of being implicated in further suits. the 70 or more local, regional, and Suffice it to say that CSICOP as a national skeptics groups that have scientific body cannot be held respon­ sprung up worldwide and share our sible for personal remarks made about aims. These are all independent, individuals. CSICOP is concerned autonomous, self-governing groups. only with scientific questions and not We welcome their cooperation; but with the private lives of those making our policy as outlined above is also paranormal claims, unless a specific explicitly stated in the SKEPTICAL fact pertains to the science at issue. INQUIRER. We thus have made it very We have always maintained that ad clear in our publications, statements hominem arguments must be avoided and declarations, that neither these by those on both sides of any critical groups nor their individual members debate. can speak for CSICOP unless specif­ Randi and Geller have had a long­ ically authorized to do so. To maintain standing battle that predates the otherwise would make it impossible formation of CSICOP. We have no to function. objections to Randi's criticism of the Who could claim, for example, that alleged facts of Geller's claims and we a university should be held liable for have consistently applauded him anything that its professors might say when he has pointed out normal or do in their professional and non­ explanations for Geller's feats. Geller professional activities throughout the is a public figure and when he makes world? It would be likewise ridiculous claims in the marketplace about to hold that the American Association extraordinary powers we believe that for the Advancement of Science is they should be critically examined. But responsible for any statements made it is not within the scope of CSICOP by scientists participating in their as a scientific body to make statements public meetings, or to hold them about Geller's or Byrd's personal responsible for anything any of their behavior. board members might say publicly We were nevertheless required to that is unrelated to the AAAS. Sim­ enter into court and defend ourselves ilarly, if a member of CSICOP's every step of the way. What this has Executive Council makes a public meant is a drain on staff time and on statement or publishes his or her our resources. In particular, Barry views in a book, in an article, or on Karr, Executive Director of CSICOP, radio or television, and was not has spent an inordinate amount of his explicitly authorized by CSICOP to time and energy in responding to speak on CSICOP's behalf, then we these suits. CSICOP's legal fees in surely cannot be held responsible. these cases have already amounted to Byrd and Geller have sued CSICOP tens of thousands of dollars, as have for remarks allegedly made by Randi. Randi's, and promise to continue to And we have petitioned the court to grow. On several occasions, we have dismiss the case against CSICOP on offered to work out arrangements the grounds that Randi was not with Randi that would allow CSICOP speaking on CSICOP's behalf. to help raise money for his legal An important claim made by Geller defense. In each case Randi said that and by Byrd was that Randi had at­ the idea would have to be discussed tacked them personally. I am con­ with his attorneys. None of the offers

116 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 were ever accepted. prove necessary. A particularly unfortunate aspect CSICOP and the SKEPTICAL of this controversy has not been INQUIRER have often presented con­ publicly aired thus far. Since it is in troversial and provocative critiques the transcripts of the many docu­ that we consider important scientific ments (now several feet high) that contributions. We believe deeply in a have been filed in these cases and thus free press, freedom of speech and part of the public record, we should scientific inquiry, and the importance face it directly. That is that Randi's of dissent. The present Uri Geller suit, attorneys have maintained in their as CSICOP's Washington, D.C., attor­ defense that Randi was "acting as the ney James Grossberg told the agent of CSICOP" and that he was Washington Post, is the "kind of libel explictly authorized by the CSICOP suit being used as a means of silencing Executive Council to make the state­ debate on significant scientific issues" ments that he did about the personal and it could have "a chilling effect on lives of Geller and Byrd. full and frank discussion of these These claims are false. Our insur­ issues among the public—including er's counsel has repeatedly requested members of the scientific commun­ that Randi's attorneys withdraw ity." However, we will continue to them. Unfortunately, they have not provide skeptical critiques of para­ yet done so. normal claims. The implications of the Geller and We have made great progress in the Bryd cases transcend the immediate past decades and we have great plans issues of the suit. For, if the court for future development. It is critical sustains the claim that Randi was that we proceed with building a speaking on CSICOP's behalf, then it permanent headquarters, for we need would be difficult for us to conduct to provide more space for our staff business: Anyone associated with our and for our research library and its efforts or friendly to the skeptics' vast collection of books and journals cause could pose a risk to CSICOP. on skepticism. We also need to con­ The underlying issue in all of this tinue to develop our educational is that some paranormalists feel activities through the Institute of aggrieved by skeptical criticism and Inquiry and our skeptical outreach in may be resorting to lawsuits to drain the media. The only way we will be skeptics financially. It is well known able to continue into the twenty-first that some organizations have often century is if our subscribers and responded to their critics by attempt­ supporters help us fulfill these ambi­ ing to tie them up in lawsuits, or by tious goals. the threat of lawsuits. We are not abandoning anyone in Although we have encouraged the stormy seas of misfortune, but are criticism of paranormal claims, we attempting to keep the skeptics' ship have insisted that it be responsible, afloat. If CSICOP is to weather the fair, and objective and that ad hom- storm, however, skeptical inquirers inem attacks be avoided. My motto has will need to stand together. Our been to avoid lawsuits wherever commitment to the use of critical possible in order not to be consumed intelligence to test truth claims seems by them. However, when the princi­ unique in the current context. We are ples upon which CSICOP was often the lone voice defending founded are at stake, we are prepared rationality. We do not intend to be to do battle all the way, if it should silenced. •

Winter 1992 117 CSICOP 1992 SEMINARS Magic for Skeptics Trickery and the Paranormal Lexington, Kentucky Friday-Sunday, April 17-19 Joe Nickell and Robert A. Baker History of Magic and Its Association with the Paranormal (a slide-illustrated presentation) Magic Tricks I and II

(Learning Conjuring Effects) Magic and Perception Mentalism and Tricks of Psychics Saturday Night Banquet and Entertainment

Joe Nickell teaches technical writing at the University of Kentucky. A former professional stage magician and private investigator, he is the author of Inquest on the Shroud of Turin, Secrets of the , and many other books, and a member of the CSICOP Executive Council. Robert A. Baker is professor emeritus of psychology at the University of Kentucky and author of They Call It Hypnosis, Hidden Memories, and other books. He is a Fellow of CSICOP.

For registration information, contact Barry Karr, CSICOP, P.O. Bos 703, Buffalo, NY 14226-0703, or call him at 716-636-1425. The Skeptic's Toolbox University of Oregon at Eugene Thursday-Monday, August 20-24 The workshop will begin with dinner and an introduction on Thursday night, August 20, and will adjourn at noon on Monday. Our goal is to sharpen the ability of skeptics to deal with various situations. Some of the topics to be covered by the five lecturers are:

The Brain and Psychic Experience Pitfalls in Psychical Research How Our Minds Can Deceive Us How to Deal with the Media How Children Succeed in Fooling and Confrontational Adults Challenges The Statistics of Coincidences How to Convince Strangers You The Dowsing Rod and the Ouija Are Psychic Board How to Distinguish Good How to Avoid Legal Pitfalls from Corrupt Information Ray Hyman, the workshop coordinator, is a professor of psychology at the University of Oregon and a member of the CSICOP Executive Council. He has written extensively on the critical evaluation of paranormal claims. With a background in professional magic, he specializes in the psychology of human error and deception. Barry Beyerstein, professor of psychology at Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, B.C., and a member of the CSICOP Executive Council, specializes in how the brain determines behavior. He has researched how apparently psychic experiences can be due to malfunctions in die brain. Loren Pankratz, a clinical psychologist with the Veterans Administration in Portland, Oregon, is the world's foremost authority on the Munchausen Syndrome, which refers to patients who repeatedly and successfully fake serious illnesses. He has studied quackery in all its guises, and is a magician who writes on the psychology of conjuring. Jeff Mayhew, whose degree is in physics, has pioneered in applying computer graphics and the latest audiovisual tools to foster skepticism. He will demonstrate how to target audiences and how to deliver your message most effectively. Jerry Andrus, magician, inventor, and iconoclast, has lectured at Harvard, MIT, the University of Oregon, and elsewhere on how people reach the wrong conclusions for the "right" reasons. He has created many optical illusions and is a consultant to major science museums. Take advantage of this exciting opportunity to sharpen your skeptical skills, and join us on the Sunday fieldtrip to the "Oregon Vortex," one of Oregon's major "paranormal" geographical sites. For registration information, contact Barry Karr, CSICOP, P.O Box 703, Buffalo, NY 14226-0703, or call him at 716-636-1425. News and Comment

Fifth European ogy; Noah's flood; a report on para­ Skeptic's Conference: normal research projects conducted by university students; and the subject Mars in Amsterdam that seemed to promote the great­ est level of interest—the continu­ ing debate over the so-called Mars here do you think you would effect of Franchise and Michel be if you heard these state­ Gauquelin. Wments voiced in normal con­ The Guaquelins have claimed that versation? their research shows a correlation be­ "Skepticism is an attempt to bring tween the birth of sports champions science back to the general public." and the position of the planet Mars. "It is immoral to sell illusions as In the Saturday morning session three truth." Dutch researchers offered alternative "People need psychological place­ explanations for the effect. For exam­ bos—I will leave it at that if I don't ple, Cornelis de Jager, of the Labor­ have a better alternative." atory for Space Research at the Uni­ If you had guessed it would be a versity of Utrecht, said: "The Gau- meeting of skeptics, you'd be right. quelin/Ertel effect is not necessarily The venue for these statements physically related to the position of was the fifth meeting of European Mars but may be caused by the fact skeptics groups (or EuroSkeptics), that the birth of eminent sportsmen held October 4-5, 1991, at the Park does show an annual or daily varia­ Hotel in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. tion." And the Dutch science journal­ The meeting was organized by the ist C. E. Koppeschaar stated: "Gau­ Dutch skeptics group, Stichting Skep- quelin found a correlation between sis. The conference brought together the birth of sports champions and the more than a hundred participants position of Mars in certain sectors of from Europe and the United States. the sky. Similar correlations were Previous meetings have been held in found for other professions. We show France, the United Kingdom, Ger­ that these are most likely spurious many, and Belgium. effects. A thorough analysis of Gau- A wide variety of topics was dis­ quelin's data reveals annual and cussed by the 16 scheduled speakers diurnal birth rates which are clearly during this two-day event, including: related to photoperiodicity." Franchise understanding the paranormal; quan­ Gauquelin and Suitbert Ertel, profes­ tum mechanics; ; sor of psychology at the University of state interference in paranormal Gottingen, presented rebuttals to the practices; science in daily life; crop skeptics. Gauquelin began by stating circles; placebo effects and practi­ that she was not an astrologer, and tioners; dowsing claims; parapsychol­ "I am not in favor of at all."

120 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 r^

• C2IJI 1 *

Suitbert Ertel,Francoise Gauquelin , Claude Benski, and Paul Kurtz discuss the "Mars effect between conference sessions. (Photo by Barry Karr)

She maintained that during their ticular Jan Willem Nienhuys, Dick research the Gauquelins had taken Zeilstra, and Cornells de Jager, are to into account the objections raised by be congratulated for this year's very the Dutch researchers. She expressed successful meeting. an interest in working in cooperation While in Europe, I visited Hungary with the Dutch and others to see and met with physicist Gyula Bencze, whether "there is an effect or not." Gyula Staar, editor of the Science Paul Kurtz, who read a paper at Society's Termeszet Vilaga, and other the conference, said that efforts Hungarian scientists, including Janos should be made to independently Szentagothai, former president of the replicate Gauquelin's findings. Academy of Sciences and now a As with all conferences some of the Member of Parliament, who was one best moments occurred outside of the of the 186 scientists who signed the formal sessions. During one such "Objections to Astrology" document break, leaders from several of the that sparked the formation of national skeptics groups met in the CSICOP. lobby of the Park Hotel to discuss At our meeting, these scientists possible locations for future meetings. planned the formation of a committee What was striking was the enthusiasm in Hungary that would cooperate with exhibited by the groups to bring the CSICOP and other skeptics groups. next conference to their own country. Their first project will be to draft an At the EuroSkeptics meeting in Bel­ open letter to newspapers in Hungary gium in 1990, the Italian group, explaining why they feel such a CICAP, made a formal request to host committee is needed and stressing the the 1992 European conference. This importance of defending science year in Amsterdam, the offer was against . Articles from voted upon and accepted. For 1993 a the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER have already joint proposal was offered by the begun to appear in Termeszet Vilager. Wessex Skeptics and the London Stu­ dent Skeptics of the United Kingdom. —Barry Karr The Stichting Skepsis, and in par­ CSICOP Executive Director

Winter 1992 121 The author claims that there's an important lesson here—if a soil is Cold Fusion deficient in an essential element like calcium, we shouldn't just top it up Chicken & from a handy fertilizer bag, but instead should "balance" all the other nutrients in the soil, because soil n Growing Today (1990:21-22), a microbes can then use them to make widely read farming magazine in the missing elements. Are you short I New Zealand, readers are told that of potassium in your organic garden? a "French scientist" named Kevran has Not to worry—soil microbes will make discovered that a newly hatched chick up the deficit by combining sodium has four times more calcium in its and oxygen, or by stripping hydrogen skeleton than the egg did when laid, from calcium. and the extra calcium does not come from the eggshell. Moreover, Kevran This, maybe, is how soil microbes, found that experimental chickens and some plants, can enrich poor somehow off-load four times as much soils with nutrients and why rota­ calcium in their eggs and droppings tion and companion crops work so as they get from their feed, and the well. Kevran believes micro­ organisms are of the utmost impor­ extra does not come from their tance in correcting soil imbalances, skeletons. while overuse of synthetic NKP Where does it come from, then? fertilisers leads to imbalances and We're told that if the chickens are unhealthy crops. given some extra potassium, they can make the missing calcium by "combin­ If the author is right, what a ing" hydrogen with the potassium. For breakthrough!—even a desperately readers who wonder how they go infertile soil could be goosed into about doing that, the author explains. yielding magnificent harvests just by inoculating it with microbes that have A bit of atomic chemistry is helpful. a flair for adding up atomic numbers. It is the atomic nuclei, rather than But, before we accept cold-fusion the outer electrons, that alter. The chickens, eggs, and compost as fact, nuclei of elements other than hy­ well need far more convincing evi­ drogen contain both neutrons and dence, because the notion contradicts protons. The number of protons is some long-held scientific ideas. called the atomic number of the element, and written as a small Modern atomic theory pictures an number to the lower left of the atom as a central nucleus surrounded element. For example, potassium by electrons. When atoms react chem­ has an atomic number of 19 (19K), ically the outcome depends on how hydrogen is 1 (1H) and calcium is their outermost electrons interact 20 (20Ca). If you take a potassium (Atkins 1987:3-6). Chemical reactions atom and add a hydrogen atom, you cannot create or destroy atoms— get a calcium atom (19K + 1H = 20Ca). rather, they can only rearrange exist­ Calcium can also be formed by ing atoms into new molecules. How­ adding oxygen to magnesium (12Mg ever, the author is describing nuclear + sO = 20Ca) or by adding carbon to reactions like fusion (when nuclei silica (14Si + 6C = 20Ca). Or you can remove hydrogen from calcium to combine) and fission (when a nucleus get potassium, or combine sodium breaks up). Bad luck, we now know and oxygen (nNa + aO = 19K). enough about nuclear reactions to be

122 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 confident that they don't occur in that the chicks developing inside them chickens and eggs: (l) fusion requires are busily making their calcium by too high a start-up temperature, and fusing oxygen and magnesium. (2) both fusion and fission release such There's another reason for doubt­ prodigious amounts of energy that ing that chickens are cold-fusing vital we'd surely notice them. elements like calcium and potassium: 1. As far as we know, nuclear What's to stop them from going fusion reactions will start up only at further and fusing up some really temperatures of millions of degrees exotic elements, like gold and silver, Celsius—that's why fusion at room for example? After all, to make gold temperature has been dubbed cold they'd only have to fuse three calcium fusion. Such unimaginable heat is atoms and one potassium atom, and found under only extreme conditions they'd get silver just by fusing two like those found inside stars, thermo­ atoms of calcium and one of potas­ nuclear explosions, and plasmas. To sium. Surely by chance alone at least make calcium and other elements by a few of the millions of chickens that fusion without vaporizing themselves, have ever lived would have pulled off chicken eggs would have to do what that stunt by now, and somebody cold-fusion researchers have not done would have noticed, especially during yet, lower the ignition temperature of the centuries when alchemists were fusion to no more than body-heat. But looking for cheap and quick ways to even if chickens somehow managed to make precious metals. Admittedly, do that, we'd notice. Why? Aesop reported that a goose made 2. If chicks inside their eggs really golden eggs seemingly out of nothing: are making calcium out of oxygen and magnesium, then they're somehow Thinking to get at once all the gold pulling off the nuclear fusion reaction the Goose could give, he killed it and opened it only to find—nothing. u (Bartlett 1955). tO + f2Mg = SCa 15.994915 23.985042 39.962591 Maybe that goose was cold-fusing gold, but the report itself notes that During that reaction, 0.017366 units the only evidence was destroyed, and of mass go missing (Weast 1987), during the 25 centuries since then, no released as energy. That's a lot of other reliable evidence has surfaced. energy—using Einstein's famous for­ Can we conclude that cold-fusion mula £ = mc2, we can calculate it at chickens are a crock? 1.56 x 1012 joules per mole of calcium fused. If the chick makes three- —Bill Malcolm and quarters of its calcium, the fusion Phil Garnock-]ones would release about 9 * 108 joules altogether. If that energy were to be released steadily during the egg's 21- Note day incubation, the egg would heat up Today's nuclear physicists can synthesize four times faster than an egg that's gold in reactors and particle accelerators by being soft-boiled—it would be hard- nuclear reactions with neighboring elements boiled in three minutes, and probably (e.g., platinum or thallium), but the cost of couldn't radiate heat quickly enough such production far exceeds the gold's commercial value. However, the above- to escape flashing into steam soon mentioned reactions synthesizing silver and after. Eggs don't do that, and so we gold from three or four lighter elements are can conclude that it's very unlikely impossible for two reasons: (l) The nuclei

Winter 1992 123 of the heavier elements require more nique, was ordered by a jury in neutrons to be stable. Three calcium nuclei Crescent City, California, to pay and one potassium nucleus would produce $565,000 in damages. The judgment a fused nucleus with 79 protons (i.e., gold) and 159 neutrons; the stable gold nucleus will go to seven children and their would require an additional 38 neutrons! (2) parents who filed suit three years ago Under most conditions found in the universe, for physical and emotional pain they binary nuclear reactions predominate; the blamed on a "research project" probability of three or more particles reacting together at one time becomes inspired by Ferreri. Witnesses, includ­ vanishingly small; even successive reactions ing neurologists, testified that the (involving intermediate nuclei of zirconium technique, marketed worldwide, has and neodymium) would be impossible. no effect aside from the pain it inflicts. The "research project" had been References sponsored by the Del Norte Unified School District. The resulting con­ Atkins, P. W. 1987. Molecules, New York: HPHLP. troversy led to a recall election that Bartlett, J. 1955. Aesop, c 550 B.C., Familiar removed the superintendent and Quotations, 5th ed. Boston: Little, Brown. school-board members. Growing Today. 1990. December. The unanimous verdict on Sep­ McQuarrie, D. A., and P. A. Rock. 1984. General Chemistry. New York: W. H. tember 27,1991, in Del Norte County Freeman. Superior Court was said to be the Weast, R. C. 1987. Handbook of Chemistry largest damage award in the county's and Physics, First Student Edition. Boca history. Ferreri had offered free Raton, Fla. treatments for dyslexia, learning problems, and Down's syndrome. Bill Malcolm is an American-trained Testimony showed that the school physiological ecologisl living in New Zea­ board ignored two local teachers when land, and Phil Garnock-Jnes is a plant they repeatedly protested that the systematise and one of the authors of the Ferreri technique had been discredited latest volume of The New Zealand Flora. in Utah, Texas, and other states. Other defendants in the case—two chiropractors who, following Ferreri's demonstration, carried out the subse­ Jury Awards $565,000 quent treatments, which they claimed in Suit Against "removes the static from the nervous system"—settled out of court for J Ferreri Technique amounts reported to be $148,000 and $59,000, respectively. —K.F. he originator of a controversial technique that involves squeezing Tchildren's heads and pressing on their eye sockets to treat dyslexia and Senator's Pseudoscience other learning disabilities has lost a legal battle in northern California. Aide Quits The controversy was the subject of Si's Fall 1990 cover article, "Neural Organization Technique: Treatment . B. Scott Jones, the aide to or Torture?" Senator Claiborne Pell (D-R.I.) Carl A. Ferreri, the New York C who caused a stir in Washing­ chiropractor who promoted the tech­ ton when he warned Defense Secre-

124 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 tary Richard B. Cheney that coded messages could be heard when speeches by Bush administration officials were played backwards (SI, Summer 1991), has moved on to another job. Jones, Pell's special assistant, whose full-time assignment was to promote federal research into psychic phenom­ ena, quit to become president of an organization called the Human Poten­ tial Foundation. Pell, Capitol Hill's best-known fan of psychic phenom­ ena, helped create the foundation in 1989 to investigate the paranormal. One month before election day 1990, with Pell up for reelection and U.S. troops preparing for the war against Iraq, Jones warned that the word simone appeared when tapes of speeches made by Cheney, Secretary of State James A. Baker III, and President Bush were played back­ wards. Jones said the officials might be inadvertently giving out an im­ portant code word. But simone turned out to be the sound created when the word enormous is played back­ wards.

—C. Eugene Emery Jr. samples of many of the recordings reviewed in the issue. Gene Emery is the science writer for the The editors decided to spice up the Providence Journal. April 1991 issue with the announce­ ment of a major discovery: a recording by none other than Frederic Chopin himself. Chopin Recorded Live? But, first, a little history. Thomas Edison was the first to actually record A Classic CD Xoha and play back sound; but just as the French credit Charles Cros (who thought of the idea before Edison), the usic-loving readers of the British date the beginning of sound SKEPTICAL INQUIRER may be recording to 1857, the year of Leon M interested in following the Scott de Martinville's invention of the progress of a recent hoax. phonautograph. This device used a The British magazine Classic CD is quill to record sound vibrations on a devoted to classical music and compact cylinder of smoked glass. The sounds discs. Each issue comes with a 70- could not be played back but could be minute compact disc that contains studied under a magnifying glass.

Winter 1992 125 sound processing, the more convin­ cing the recording is. A loud rhythmic thump at intervals of one-half second suggests that the cylinder spent 152 years lying on its side wearing off some of the lampblack. Evidently it rotates at the speed of 120 rpm, close to the 150 rpm of Edison cylinders. The spectral sound is similar to the SoundStream-enhanced Caruso re­ cordings on RCA. There is no trace of flutter; the IRCAM technicians apparently have become very good at eliminating flutter. Too bad they aren't so good at getting rid of other speed variations. And the pianist is Classic CD's Chopin announcement. remarkably good. Curious, I called the editorial But suppose some earlier inventor offices of Classic CD at 011-44-225- had built an identical device. It would 442244. The editor confessed that have to have been an eccentric who Erica Lea-Picton had fabricated the was scoffed at by the establishment whole thing. A computer sequencer and had then abandoned his invention; played the electric piano. The engi­ otherwise we would have heard of neers recorded it on reel-to-reel tape him. But wait, he has to preserve his (the British editor called it "head-to- invention somehow—let's have him head tape") while brushing the micro­ bury it in the back yard in the hope phone. Then they unwound the tape, that posterity would be more kind. scrunched it and stomped on it to add Which musician would we most like some more interesting noises. "We to have a recording of? Chopin, of had a lot of fun making it." They never course. Assuming the recording appa­ expected to fool anybody; "XOHA ratus is so primitive it yields only one CD010491" should be obvious, right? minute of playing time, the Minute Well, maybe. On April 30, Richard Waltz is the perfect piece. Buell mentioned the discovery in the And that is how the eccentric Boston Globe and took no position inventor Hippolyte Sot happened to either way as to its authenticity, but drop in on Chopin in 1848, the last he was put off by the enthusiastic car­ year of Chopin's life. The Minute pentry lesson (that rhythmic thump) Waltz was recorded on the smoked- going on in the next room. I wrote glass cylinder, it was buried and him a letter, and in his next column discovered in 1990, and the French on May 7 he exposed the hoax. sound laboratory IRCAM used lasers One would hope that would be the and computers to reconstruct the end of it. But it seems to have entered sound just in time to be included as the folklore like the Shroud of Turin the last track of April's sampler CD. and H. L. Mencken's famous bathtub The recording is also available on the hoax. The October issue of On The XOHA label (rearrange the letters) as Air Magazine has the question in its record number 010491 (which is Trivia Quiz: "What is the first musical British for 040191). Jolly good fun. composition ever recorded for poster­ The more familiar you are with ity, and who performed it?" (Guess

126 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 who?) Granted, the reputation of this sity of Kansas, has particularly fun quiz has already been tainted in entries for Astronomy and Astrology. connection with the performance directions for Busoni's Piano Con­ Astrology—One of the problems of certo. Decades ago someone somehow news judgment is how much you mistranslated the Italian for "invisi­ should give readers what you think they want and how much you ble" as "naked" in the English trans­ should give them what you think lation of the directions for the six-part they need. It helps to know that men's chorus, which is supposed to what you think they want is what sing unseen in the last movement. they want and that what you think Thus the trivia question "What piano they need is what they need. concerto has never been performed Sometimes you should play God according to the composer's direc­ and give readers what you think tions, and why?" they need but don't want. And Readers should keep an eye out for sometimes you shouldn't give them further spreading of the Chopin hoax. what you think they want but don't need. Astrologers (from the Greek —Mark Lutton astron, star, and legein, to speak) pretend they can predict the course Mark Lutton lives in Maiden, Massa­ of human events from the course chusetts. of celestial bodies. Despite the popularity of astrology as indicated by readership studies, why run a column on a pseudoscience? Why IS Another Stylebook perpetuate the racket? 1 With Style (and Wit) Then, under Astronomy, we find: Astronomy—From Greek astron, star, and nemein, to arrange, hence KEPTICAL INQUIRER editor Ken- the scientific study of the celestial drick Frazier (SI, Summer bodies and phenomena beyond the S1991:353) brings to our attention earth. Astronomy is one of the the entries for Astrology, Zodiac, and classical liberal arts. Astrology is Psychic in the stylebook of the Toronto one of the classical con arts. Globe and Mail. Frazier concludes that while the Globe and Mail stylebook is While the entries for Pseudo and not perfect, it is a step in the right Psychic aren't as much fun, they show direction, unlike the Associated Press that Bremner did his homework: stylebook, which has no mention whatsoever of any of these words. Pseudo—Greek pseudos, false, After reading the Frazier article, I whence pseudonym, a fictitious was happy to sort through Words on name, a pen name, and words coined by the addition of pseudo to connote Words, a stylebook that I had been sham or fakery, such as pseudoin- required to purchase while attending tellectual, pseudoscientific. Note the Ohio State University School of the spelling: not psuedo, as is often Journalism. Even though it is not a seen. true stylebook in the sense of the AP Stylebook, Words on Words (Columbia Under the general heading of University Press) by John B. Bremner, "Psycho," we find "psychic, pertaining professor of journalism at the Univer­ to the mind, extrasensory, unex-

Winter 1992 127 plained by physical causes; as a noun, told Gail that we'd received Mr. someone seemingly responsive to Carpenter's call, she was deeply nonphysical forces, a medium. intrigued, and for a very unusual Perhaps the most impressive thing reason. It turns out that 'Carpenter' about the Words on Words entries on is one of the code names Elvis uses Astronomy and Astrology is that the when he makes contract with people wit may allow some reporters, wri­ by phone now! So it appears we may ters, and editors to remember some­ have heard from the King himself." thing that all too many people pass Fleischer printed Silverman's over without retaining. remarks in her column and appended her own eloquent comment, as —Robert Bunge follows: "Jonathan, get a grip. Listen care­ fully. Paul McCartney is alive. Maybe Judge Crater is alive, although he'd be about 110 years old now. It's even ad a Call from possible that Jimmy Hoffa is not built 'Mr. Carpenter' Lately? into some cornerstone on Sixth H Avenue, and is alive. Farfetched, but possible. But Elvis Aron Presley is traight shooting from represen­ singing 'Hound Dog' in Heaven. He tatives of the media is a rarity is dead, cold as any stone. As devoid Swhere issues of skepticism and of life as the parrot in the Python belief are concerned. A refreshing sketch. If you or Gail or whoever can exception to the depressing rule is prove, scientifically or otherwise, that Leonore Fleischer, a novelist and Elvis Presley is alive, 111 eat his blue columnist who writes a sort of suede shoes." publishing-industry gossip column for Now, if only more journalists could Publishers Weekly titled "Talk of the learn to shoot that straight! Trade." Fleischer recently (January 11, 1991 issue) commented on a tale told —Lys Ann Shore to her by Jonathan Silverman of Shapolsky Publishers. That company happens to be the publisher of not one but two books about the late Elvis E] No More 666s Presley: Is Elvis Alive? and The Elvis Files: Was His Death Faked? Both books are the work of writer Gail Brewer- t was announced on May 1 that the Giorgio. Silverman told Fleischer the British vehicle licensing office will following story. no longer issue license plates bear­ "We received a call from a man who ing the numbers "666." The Driver was based in the far west and who and Vehicle Licencing Agency gave his name as Scott Carpenter. He (DVLC), which is responsible for the said he was the funeral director for decision, said that cars with 666 plates Elvis's funeral and was very eager to were involved in too many accidents, speak with Gail Brewer-Giorgio. He and there were "complaints from the also stated emphatically that he was public." Reactions from clergymen positive Gail's theory about Elvis was were mixed. correct, based on what he had seen at the funeral and so forth. When I —Wendy M. Grossman

128 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 Notes of a Fringe-Watcher

MARTIN GARDNER

11 Probability II Paradoxes

he great controversy aroused by morning rounds, A tried to per­ Marilyn vos Savant's several suade the warden to tell him who columns in Parade magazine about had been pardoned. The warden T refused. the problem posed by Monty Hall's three doors (SI, Summer 1991 and this "Then tell me," said A, "the name of one of the others who will be issue) suggests that readers of SI may executed. If B is to be pardoned, give like to see this and similar problems me C's name. If C is to be pardoned, discussed in more detail. give me B's name. And If I'm to be The three-door problem, in the pardoned, flip a coin to decide form of three prisoners and a warden, whether to name B or C." was floating around anonymously "But if you see me flip the coin," among mathematicians in the mid- replied the wary warden, "you'll fifties. It is possible that I was the first know that you're the one pardoned. to write about it, in my October 1959 And if you see that I don't flip a Mathematical Games column in Scien­ coin, you'll know it's either you or tific American. The column was later the person I don't name." "Then don't tell me now," said reprinted in The Second Scientific A. "Tell me tomorrow morning." American Book of Mathematical Puzzles The warden, who knew nothing and Diversions (1961), currently avail­ about probability theory, thought it able as a University of Chicago Press over that night and decided that if paperback. he followed the procedure sug­ Here is how I described the gested by A, it would give A no help problem: whatever in estimating his survival chances. So next morning he told Three men—A, B and C—were in A that B was going to be executed. separate cells under sentence of After the warden left, A smiled death when the governor decided to to himself at the warden's stupidity. pardon one of them. He wrote their There were now only two equally names on three slips of paper, shook probable elements in what mathem­ the slips in a hat, drew out one of aticians like to call the "sample them and telephoned the warden, space" of the problem. Either C requesting that the name of the would be pardoned or himself, so lucky man be kept secret for several by all the laws of conditional prob­ days. Rumor of this reached pri­ ability, his chances of survival had soner A. When the warden made his gone up from 1/3 to 1/2.

Winter 1992 129 The warden did not know that cards that do not include the ace of A could communicate with C, in an spades. Only two face-down cards adjacent cell, by tapping in code on are left, one of which must be the a water pipe. This A proceeded to ace of spades, but this obviously do, explaining to C exactly what he does not lower A's chances to 1/2. had said to the warden and what It doesn't because it is always the warden had said to him. C was possible, if one looks at the faces equally overjoyed with the news of the 51 cards, to find 50 that do because he figured, by the same not include the ace of spades. reasoning used by A, that his own Finding them and turning them face survival chances had also risen to up, therefore, has no effect on A's 1/2. chances. Of course if 50 cards are Did the two men reason cor­ turned over at random, and none rectly? If not, how should each have prove to be the ace of spades, then calculated his chances of being the chance that A drew the death pardoned? card does rise to 1/2. What about prisoner C? Since The following month I answered like either A or C must die, their this: respective probabilities for survival must add up to 1. A's chances to The answer to the problem of the live are 1/3; therefore C's chances three prisoners is that A's chances must be 2/3. This can be confirmed of being pardoned are 1/3, and that by considering the four elements in C's chances are 2/3. our sample space, and their respec­ Regardless of who is pardoned, tive initial probabilities: the warden can give A the name of a man, other than A, who will die. 1. C is pardoned, warden names The warden's statement therefore B (probability 1/3). has no influence on A's survival 2. B is pardoned, warden names chances; they continue to be 1/3. C (probability 1/3). The situation is analogous to the 3. A is pardoned, warden names following card game. Two black B (probability 1/6). cards (representing death) and a red 4. A is pardoned, warden names card (the pardon) are shuffled and C (probability 1/6). dealt to three men: A, B, C (the In cases 3 and 4, A lives, making prisoners). If a fourth person (the his survival chances 1/3. Only cases warden) peeks at all three cards, 1 and 3 apply when it becomes then turns over a black card belong­ known that B will die. The chances ing to either B or C, what is the that it is case 1 are 1/3, or twice probability that A's card is red? the chances (1/6) that it is case 3, There is a temptation to suppose it so C's survival chances are two to is 1/2 because only two cards remain one, or 2/3. In the card-game model face-down, one of which is red. But this means that there is a probability since a black card can always be of 2/3 that C's card is red. shown for B or C, turning it over provides no information of value in It is obvious that this confusing betting on the color of A's card. problem is equivalent to Marilyn vos This is easy to understand if we Savant's three-door puzzle. Let's exaggerate the situation by letting model it as a three-shell game. You death be represented by the ace of spaces in a full deck. The deck is know that a pea is under just one shell, spread, and A draws a card. His and you are told in advance—this is chance of avoiding death is 51/52. a crucial assumption—that after you Suppose now that someone peeks choose a shell, the operator (who at the cards, then turns face up 50 knows where the pea is) will turn over

130 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 an empty shell. Because he can always You: "How many children do you do this, it provides no new informa­ have?" tion about the pea's whereabouts. The She: "Two." probability you chose correctly You: "Is at least one of them a boy?" remains 1/3 even though only two She: "Yes." shells remain face down. The prob­ What is the probability that both ability that the pea is under the other are boys? One is tempted to say 1/2. shell rises to 2/3 because the two prob­ If one child is a boy, it seems that the abilities must add to 1 (certainty). Your other child is either a boy or a girl chances are therefore doubled if you with equal probability. switch your choice to the other shell. Surprisingly, this is incorrect. Of course if someone approaches the Assume that if there are two boys, table without knowing what has gone they are not twins. Call the older boy on before, and is told only that the Bl and the younger B2. There are pea is under one of the two shells, the three equally probable combinations probability for this person is 50-50 for that will meet the mother's state­ each shell. ments: Bl and a girl, B2 and a girl, An even simpler probability brain- and Bl and B2. In only one case are teaser, equally counterintuitive, is one both boys, so the chances both are I introduced in an April 1957 column, boys is 1/3, not 1/2. If you now ask, but discussed more fully in October "Is your oldest child a boy?" and she 1959. You find yourself sitting next says yes, the equally probable cases to a stranger on a plane. The following reduce to Bl and a girl, and Bl and dialogue occurs: B2. The probability both children are

Winter 1992 131 boys then rises to 1/2! that eminent philosophers and stat­ In my April 1957 column (reprinted isticians are still debating. It was in another University of Chicago introduced by philosopher of science Press paperback entitled Hexaflexagons Carl Hempel, and is known as "Hem- and Other Mathematical Diversions) I pel's paradox." Hempel invented it to gave a strongly counterintuitive show how unclear our understanding problem that goes back at least to is of what is meant by a "confirming 1911. It is another marvelous example instance" of a theory. of how easily one's intuitions can be Consider the conjecture "All crows misled by seemingly trivial probability are black." Everyone agrees that each questions. time you find another black crow it You are playing bridge. After the counts as a confirming instance—that cards are dealt, you turn to Ms. Jones is, increases the probability—of the and ask, "Do you have at least one truth of the assertion "All crows are ace in your hand?" She truthfully black." Finding a white crow would be answers yes. The probability she has a disconfirming instance that would at least one other ace is exactly 5359/ make the conjecture false. 14498, or .369+. This is a trifle more Now consider the fact that the than 1/3. You then ask, "Do you have statement "All crows are black" is the ace of spades in your hand?" Again logically identical with the statement the answer is yes. What is now the "All not-black objects are not crows." probability she has at least one other So—you start looking at objects that ace? Incredibly, it rises to 11686/ are not black. You come upon a green 20825, or .561+, which is better than necktie. It clearly is not a crow, 1/2! How can naming an ace raise the therefore it confirms the statement probability of a second ace? "All not-black objects are not crows." George Gamow and Marvin Stern, But if it confirms that statement, it in their amusing little book Puzzle- follows with iron logic that a green Math (1958), showed how this can be necktie must be a confirming instance understood by reducing the deck to of "All crows are black"! This of course just four cards: ace of spades, ace of seems absurd. It suggests that a sci­ hearts, two of clubs, and jack of entist can do ornithological research diamonds. This "deck" is shuffled and simply by looking around a room. dealt to two players. Ms. Jones's hand As rhymester Armand T. Ringer can be one of six that are equally inger once put it: possible: (AS, AH) (AS, JD) (AS, 2C) (AH,JD)(AH,2C)(JD,2C). I never saw a purple cow, If you ask Ms. Jones if she has at But if I ever see one, least one ace, five of the hands allow Will the probability crows are her to say yes. Because only one has black a second ace, the chances she holds Have a better chance to be 1? two aces are 1/5. If you now ask, "Do you have the ace of spades?" three You will understand why I cannot hands permit her to say yes, one of discuss this paradox further when I which has two aces. The probability tell you that in my Hexaflexagons book of a second ace rises from 1/5 to I have a bibliography for this paradox 1/3. that lists more than 60 references in There are scores of other para­ books and journals where widely doxes involving probability that are different views about this paradox are just as mind-bending. I close with one defended. •

132 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 Psychic Vibrations AT*i.h.-

Creationists, Cosmologies, and Crashes

ROBERT SHEAFFER

f you recently heard a loud crashing 1991, p. 467) reached a very different noise, according to some people it conclusion: "Had the foundation of I just might have been the collapse modern cosmology really crumbled of the Big Bang. No less an authority overnight? . . . Not at all. . . . What than the Institute for Creation happened was that a handful of sci­ Research recently proclaimed, "Big ence reporters mistook theories of Bang Theory Collapses" (Impact, June galaxy formation in the early universe 1991). Citing a number of articles in for the Big Bang itself, which hap­ the popular press with titles like "Big pened aeons earlier. . . . Some in the Bang Theory Goes Kerplooey," Duane news media apparently took this to Gish, Vice President of the ICR, imply that the entire Big Bang cos­ observes that "the Big Bang theory mology was out of the window." has received one body blow after Elsewhere on the creation front, another" in the past two or three Victor Bernard, in "Then a Miracle years. The straw said to have broken Occurs" (Free Inquiry, Summer 1991, the camel's back was the research of p. 35), reports on what is perhaps the Will Saunders and nine colleagues, most advanced creationist research based on data from the Infrared Astronomical Satellite, reported in January 1991. According to the ICR, Saunders reported finding "a far greater number of massive super- clusters than can be accounted for by Big Bang cosmologies." Gish gloats that while the universe did not begin with a bang, we can rely that it will certainly end with one: "The heavens shall pass away with a great noise, and the elements shall melt with fervent heat," as predicted in 2 Peter 3:10, a book whose authenticity was disputed by the Church Father Eusebius more than 17 centuries ago, and is today by nearly all serious biblical scholars. Looking at these same popular arti­ cles, Sky and Telescope magazine (May I*M—&t

Winter 1992 133 paper yet: "A Three-Dimensional re-hashes of 40-year-old crashed- Simulation of the Global Tectonic saucer yarns. However, the careful Changes During Noah's Flood," by observer detects a lot of rustling in John R. Baumgardner, who, unlike the underbrush. , a most creationists, has solid scientific classic saucer "" of the 1950s, credentials. Baumgardner hypothes­ reports from his workshop in Vero izes a sudden subduction of all the Beach, Florida, that he has just earth's ocean floor, causing steam that recently succeeded in getting a 4-foot- would generate intense global rain for diameter of his own 40 days and 40 nights and resulting design off the ground. He claims it in a sudden and temporary rise in sea operates on a new "electro- level from 1,200 to 1,800 meters. The aerodynamic" principle, which will principal problem in this scenario is certainly make him rich and famous that he somehow must invent a if he is telling the truth. Bill Cooper, mechanism for reducing the viscosity whose current UFO theory is that the of the earth's magma by some nine U.S. government has, for sinister orders of magnitude, which in lay­ reasons, created a bizarre conspiracy man's terms means that the earth's to convince us that space aliens really interior suddenly went from the do exist, has just published a new book, solidity of rock to somewhat less than Behold a Pale Horse, containing the text that of jello. But I am confident that, of something calling itself the "Pro­ tocols of the Wise Men of Zion." given enough time, his inventiveness UFOlogist James Moseley compared will rise to the task and provide what this text with that of the notorious he needs. anti-Semitic hoax, "Protocols of the Elders of Zion," and found them to be identical. Cooper insists that the document he published actually des­ cribes a plot not by Jews, but by "the Illuminati." And Bigfootologist Erik Beckjord recently gained the attention of the press by claiming to have dis­ covered a new "face on Mars" that looks like Senator Ted Kennedy. (Perhaps the Martians are sculpting their own version of Mt. Rushmore.) Beckjord also claims to to have been zapped by a UFO, which left him with a red face and persistent headaches, emphasizing that these were "nol from drinking."

* * *

At the time of this writing, it's already shaping up as an unusually bad year for "psychic" predictions. (Come to The UFO front has been so quiet that think of it, the "psychic" prognosti- UFOlogists seem to have nothing cators haven't had a good one yet!) better to do than to argue over rival Among the dramatic predictions for

134 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 1991 from well-known "psychics" we in the spring." can already write off are: Lou Wright: "An air disaster will Judy Hevenly: "Saddam Hussein kill hundreds of vacationers on the will be killed in February in an way to Hawaii in March." accidental nuclear explosion at a secret There are plenty of other equally Iraqi installation." implausible prognostications; but Marie Graciette: "A massive earth­ since the meter is still running, we quake will strike the Grand Canyon must wait until the year's end. •

OUT THERE Rob Pudim

Winter 1992 135 The Crop-Circle Phenomenon An Investigative Report .

JOE NICKELL and JOHN F. FISCHER

or years a mysterious phenomenon has been plaguing southern English crop fields. FTypically producing swirled, circular depressions in cereal crops, it has left in its wake beleaguered farmers and an astonished popu­ lace—not to mention befuddled scientists and would-be "investigators"—all struggling to keep apace with the proliferating occurrences and the The defining equally proliferating claims made about them. characteristics of The Mystery and the Controversy the phenomenon

The circles range in diameter from as small as lead in a fairly 3 meters (nearly 10 feet) to some 25 meters straight line (approximately 82 feet) or more. In addition to the simple circles that were first reported, there toward the hoax have appeared circles in formations; circles with hypothesis. rings, spurs, and other appurtenances; and yet more complex forms, including "pictographs" and even a crop triangle! While the common depression or "lay" pattern is spiral (either clockwise or counterclockwise), there are radial and even more complex lays (Delgado and Andrews 1989; Meaden 1989; "Field" 1990). The year 1989 brought no fewer than three books on the cornfield phenomenon and added to the already countless articles on the subject. Soon circles-mystery enthusiasts were being called cereologists (after Ceres, the Roman goddess of vegetation). Circlemania was in full bloom. By this time, some of the nascent explana­ tions for the early, relatively simple circles had

This article is a greatly abridged version of a chapter in the authors' forthcoming book, Mysterious Realms.

136 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 been debunked. The circles' matted claims: "Ultimately, it is going to be pinwheel patterns readily distin­ the theoretical atmospheric physicist guished them from fairy rings (rings who will successfully minister the full of lush growth in lawns and meadows, and correct answers." Meaden's caused by parasitic fungi) (Delgado notion is that the "circles effect" is and Andrews 1989). The possibility produced by what he terms the that they were due to the sweeping "plasma vortex phenomenon." He movements of snared or tethered defines this as "a spinning mass of air animals, or rutting deer, seemed which has accumulated a significant precluded by the absence of any tracks fraction of electrically charged mat­ or trails of bent or broken stems. And ter." Most evidence, he contends, the postulation of helicopters flying "suggests that the spinning wind has upside-down was countered by the entered the ionized state known as observation that such antics would plasma, and that the vortices are to produce, not swirled circles, but become plasma balls akin to ball crashed 'copters ("England" 1989; lightning in appearance except that Grossman 1990). they are much bigger and longer- A "scientific" explanation was soon lived." When the electrically charged, attempted by George Terence spinning mass strikes a crop field, Meaden, a onetime professor of Meaden thinks, it produces a neat crop physics who later took up meteorol­ circle (1989: 3, 10-11). ogy as an avocation. In his book, The Variant forms, he contends, are Circles Effect and Its Mysteries, he also allowed by his postulated vortices.

A "double pictogram" that appeared in East Kennett. England. (Photo by Busty Taylor/Centre for Crop Circle Studies.)

Winter 1992 137 For example, of satellite circles most strongly at the UFO hypothe­ Meaden states: "An induction effect sis—perhaps not surprisingly, since may be the consequence of electro­ both have been consultants to Flying magnetic-wave interference resulting Saucer Review (Grossman 1990). in antimodal extrema at the satellite Although they profess "guarded positions, thus leading to secondary views" about whether circles and rings rotating plasmas at these locations." have an extraterrestrial source, they Because of their capacity to be ionized, frequently give the opposite impres­ Meaden asserts, the vortices can sion. For example, they go out of their produce light and sound effects that way to observe that a 1976 circle have been associated with the creation "appeared about seven weeks before of some circles (Meaden 1989: 60-66). a Mrs. [Joyce] Bowles had seen a UFO However, as even one of Meaden's [and a silver-suited humanoid] just staunchest defenders concedes, "Nat­ down the road." Again, after visiting ural descending vortices ... are as yet one circle Andrews met two teenag­ unrecognized by meteorologists" ers, one of whom had earlier seen "an (Fuller 1988). Meaden himself orange glowing object" nearby. Other acknowledges that "some from among mysterious lights and objects are my professional colleagues who have frequently alluded to (Delgado and expressed surprise at the discovery of Andrews 1989: 17, 63, 98). the circles effect and questioned why They rely heavily on anecdotal it has not previously attracted the evidence (i.e., evidence in the form of attention of scientists, prefer to deny personal stories, such as the "eyewit­ its existence and reject the entire affair ness" tales that supposedly prove Elvis as a skillful hoax" (Meaden 1989:15). Presley still lives). In this respect, it In contrast to Meaden's approach seems that both Meaden and the is that of Pat Delgado and Colin Delgado and Andrews team have Andrews (1989), two engineers who much in common. For example, have extensively studied and recorded Meaden offers three alleged eyewit­ the crop-circle phenomenon. The nesses (one an associate of Meaden) pages of their Circular Evidence are to the vortex creation of a circle. filled with digressions and irrelevan- Unfortunately, all waited several cies—all calculated to foster mystery. years before making their claims, and For example, we learn of the authors' none described the respective events meeting with a professor and a in quite the same way (Meaden 1989: member of the British Society for 26-28). Similarly, Delgado and Psychical Research, "a meeting," say Andrews (1989: 68) associate UFO the authors knowingly, "which we sightings with circle formation, such recorded, although the tape was blank as the night "a row of bright lights" when we played it back." A dog that was seen at the famous Devil's Punch became ill at one site, "some kind of Bowl at Cheesefoot Head, . magnetic disturbance" at another, and Use of such conflicting anecdotal a plane that crashed after flying over evidence prompted one writer to state, a field where crop circles had appeared rather cynically: "As long as the some eight weeks before—these are phenomenon continues, time is on the the apparently random occurrences side of the believers, of course. More that Delgado and Andrews (1989: 60, and more witnesses, with tales that 65, 74, 104) attempt to yoke into the conform to the dominant myth, will mystery. certainly come forward. The witness battalion has already grown since the Overall, Delgado and Andrews hint

138 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 books appeared" (Shoemaker 1990). incoming data and photographs, we Almost predictably, a hybrid of the began to formulate hypotheses and to main theories has appeared in "eye­ seek out the opinions of agronomists witness" form. Late one evening in and others who might be helpful. We early August 1989, or so they claimed, also enlisted the aid of a computer two young men witnessed a circle expert to help us compile and analyze being formed near Margate, Kent. data on the swirled crops—a pheno­ One of them, a 19-year-old, described menon we naturally distinguished "a spiraling vortex of flashing light" from the simple circles or rings that (a nod to Meaden et al.), which, may result from a number of causes however, "looked like an upturned (Delgado and Andrews 1989: 160- satellite TV dish with lots of flashing 165). lights" (a sop to flying-saucer theor­ It soon struck us (as it had many ists). The youth kept a straight face other observers) that the crop-circle while posing with the circle for a news phenomenon had a number of poten­ photo ("A Witness" 1989-90). tially revealing characteristics. Cereol- As the crop-circle phenomenon ogists—whether of the "scientific" or entered the decade of the nineties— "paranormal" stripe—tend either to bringing with it the emergence of ever deny these characteristics or to posit more complex forms that earned the alternative explanations for them. For sobriquet "pictograms"—the main the implications are serious. While any circular theorists rushed into print single attribute may be insufficient to their various "Son of Crop Circles" identify a phenomenon, since other sequels. For example, Paul Fuller and phenomena may share that feature, Jenny Randies (who are Meaden's sufficient multiple qualities may allow disciples, although, ironically, they are one to rule in or out certain hy­ UFOlogists) followed their Controversy potheses so as to make an identifi­ of the Circles with Crop Circles: A cation. Mystery Solved. Several periodicals The identification we allude to is devoted to the phenomenon also hoaxing. The characteristics that point sprang up, such as The Cereologist, The to it include an escalation in frequency, Crop Watcher, and The Circular, which the geographic distribution, an was published by the Centre for Crop increase in complexity over time, and Circle Studies (Chorost 1991). what we call the "shyness effect," as If critics of the main theories were well as a number of lesser features. not capitalizing on an expanding market of interest in crop circles, they An Escalation in Frequency. This aspect were nevertheless busily poring over of the phenomenon has been well the data and pointing out that the reported. Although there have been prevailing circle theories were, well, reports of circles and rings in earlier full of holes. We were among them. years and in various countries—e.g., circles of reeds in Australia in 1966 Data Analyses and a burned circle of grass in Con­ necticut in 1970—only a few had the Our interest in the swirled-crops flattened swirl feature, and not many phenomenon increased during the of those were well documented at the latter 1980s. We had already opened time (Delgado and Andrews 1989: a file on the subject, but now we 179-189; Story 1980: 370-371). sought to gather information at an In any case, by the mid 1970s, what accelerated pace. As we studied the are now regarded as "classic" crop

Winter 1992 139 circles had begun to appear. In 1976, engineer with Lexmark International. swirled circles in tall grass were shown Plotting the number of circles per near a Swiss village by a man who year, Pearce determined, showed a claimed he was regularly visited by definite (i.e., significantly greater than extraterrestrials (Kinder 1987), and exponential) increase in the number Delgado and Andrews (1989) claim an of crop circles annually from 1981- instance in England that same year. 1987 (Pearce 1991). When Delgado saw his first circles in This was well supported by data 1981, his response was "to share the from Meaden's (1989-90) article in experience with other people, so I , "A Note on Observed contacted several national papers, Frequencies of Occurrence of Circles along with the BBC and ITN." Then, in British Cornfields." Figures for the he says, "Local papers jumped on the four years from 1980 to 1983 were, bandwagon as soon as they could get respectively, 3, 3, 5, and 22; Meaden the story into print" (Delgado and (1989-90) does not give exact figures Andrews 1989: 11-17). for the next few years, but notes they Delgado's use of the word band­ were "rising"; then during the years wagon seems appropriate, since the from 1987 to 1989 the totals went term refers to an increasingly popular from 73 to 113 to "over 250" annually. trend or fad. According to Noyes For 1990, the figure had again jumped (1989) in an article titled "Circular remarkably—to 700 circles in Britain, Arguments," the crop-circles phenom­ at least according to Randies (1991a). enon "gives the appearance of elab­ Small wonder that even moderate orating and increasing its intrusions voices in the controversy—like Noyes from year to year." Writing in 1989, and Michell—insisted the phenom­ he said that year had "brought more enon was increasing. occurrences than ever before." However, Meaden and his follow­ It was in an attempt to quantify ers do not accept that there has and assess such perceptions that we actually been such a marked increase decided to create a data bank of over the decade. Meaden (1989-90) information on the circles. We used attributes the increase in part to aerial the data in Delgado and Andrews's surveillance begun in 1985. "In addi­ Circular Evidence, which reviewers tion," he says, "totals for earlier years praised over Meaden's and Fuller and were still rising, partly as a result of Randles's books for its "level of detail" feedback from helpful farmers who (Shoemaker 1990) and its being "more were telling us of occurrences of comprehensive" (Michell 1989). "Over circles on their land which they had the years," (1989) says known about when they were young." Delgado and Andrews "have in­ But such anecdotal reports are spected, measured, photographed, untrustworthy in the extreme for mapped and annotated hundreds of reasons we have already considered— circles. . . ." Of course we considered not the least of which is that we that the incidences of the phenom­ cannot at such a remove distinguish enon in their book did not represent the "classic" phenomenon from other a complete list, but we intended to look circles and rings. at other sources of data as a cross­ Meaden mentions even an instance check on the sample. that supposedly occurred in 1678! With these caveats in mind we gave Widely cited, it is the folk account of a copy of Circular Evidence to computer an alleged instance of witchcraft in expert Dennis Pearce, an advisory Hertfordshire. Unfortunately for

140 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 cereologists, the account specifically ing the London Times reports," which, states that the oats were cut, not bent he said, "is to me evidence of human down in a swirled pattern like the crop intervention." circles. Indeed, not only does this story of "The Mowing Devil" (1989-90) fail Geographic Distribution. A second to support an early historical existence observed feature of the patterned- for crop circles, but, says one critic, crops phenomenon is its predilection "the phenomenon's general, if not for a limited geographic area. As we total, lack of historical precedent is to have seen, prior to the mid-1970s crop me its most disturbing aspect" (Shoe­ circles appeared sporadically at scat­ maker 1990). Jenny Randies largely tered locations in various countries, agrees with Meaden, although she but since then they have flourished now increasingly allows for a great in southern England—in Hampshire, number of hoaxes. Speaking of the , and nearby counties. It was proliferation of circles that occurred there that the circles effect captured in 1989 and 1990, she states: the world's attention. In plotting the occurrences of Both those years are hopelessly formations among English counties, tainted by the social factors [i.e., the Pearce confessed that he was "sur­ bandwagon effect we mentioned prised at how localized the phenom­ earlier] generated from the huge enon is." Although there are known media hype. Before 1989 we were exceptions, such as an occurrence in getting maybe 30 press stories a adjacent Wiltshire in 1980, all the pre- summer on circles. In 1989 we got up to 300 and in 1990 we had almost 1986 cases published by Delgado and 1,000. We can show that this esca­ Andrews in Circular Evidence were in lation in publicity preceded the Hampshire, with the vast majority increase in circle totals and to remaining there during the period us this strongly implies a surveyed (Pearce 1991). correlation. Other sources provide additional evidence for this geographic prefer­ In short, she says, the number of ence. In 1989 Time magazine con­ circles has been swelled, "heavily cluded: "While there have been reports contaminated by mass hoaxing of circles from as far away as the inspired by all the publicity" (Randies Soviet Union, Japan, and New Zea­ 1991b). land, by far the greatest number have Here Randies is helping skeptics appeared in Hampshire and Wiltshire" make their case, because if there is (Donnelly 1989). The Associated indeed "mass hoaxing," might not the Press, citing a total of 270 circles for entire phenomenon be similarly the summer of 1989, reported that caused? We agree with Randies that "two-thirds appeared in a square-mile the escalation of the phenomenon zone near in Wiltshire's rural seems to correlate with media cover­ terrain, including 28 in one field" age of it and that the coverage helped ("England" 1989). prompt further hoaxes. We provided Jenny Randies and Paul Fuller Dennis Pearce with statistics on crop- (1990:50) argue that, to the contrary, circle articles that appeared in the "sensible circle researchers have London Times from 1986 to 1990, and known for some years that circles he specifically commented on "the appear all over Britain, but for various rapid rise in both locations and reasons formations appearing away number of circles in the years follow­ from this area receive little publicity

Winter 1992 141 and go unreported outside their local Randies concedes—it also correlates media." But, as Ralph Noyes (1989) well with the spread of the phenom­ counters, many of the reports Randies enon elsewhere. In view of just the and Fuller cite are "poorly docu­ data in Circular Evidence, Dennis mented"; he adds that "if credit is Pearce observed that the number of given to them all, however, there still reported geographical locations in remains a strong appearance of an England each year grew at a faster overwhelming concentration of than exponential rate. "I would sus­ events in Wessex [an area in southern pect," he said, "that a natural phenom­ England, named after the old Anglo- enon would be either consistently Saxon kingdom] and of a phenomenon localized or consistently spread about, which has developed explosively in the but not spreading rapidly over time." 1980's." Also, whereas the circles' pre-English It may not be coincidence, given the distribution was exceedingly sparse, early sporadic circles' association with after newspaper and television reports UFOs, that the clustering occurs on the phenomenon began to increase where it does. The Wiltshire town of in the latter eighties circles began to Warminster is "the famous UFO crop up in significant numbers around capital of England" (Michell 1989-90); the world. For example, in September during the sixties and seventies it was 1990 two circles appeared in a Mis­ what Randies and Fuller term "the souri sorghum field and were imme­ centre of the UFO universe, drawing diately followed by reports in three spotters from all over the world." other fields—one in Missouri and two Therefore, the area may have pro­ in Kansas (McGuire and Adler 1990). vided a unique climate for hoaxes— About this time they also had in the form of UFO-landing sites (as begun to appear in significant the early Wessex circles were often numbers in Japan and Canada. thought to be)—to flourish. Although circles had been reported in Canada sporadically since the mid- Some cereologists suggest that, 1970s, they reappeared with a ven­ within the densely circle-pocked area, geance in the fall of 1990. Soon after the configurations do have a peculiar­ circles turned up in Manitoba in ity of distribution. Wind-vortex the­ August, the Toronto Globe and Mail orists, like Meaden and Fuller (1988), reported they were "appearing almost insist that a high proportion of crop weekly now across the Prairies" circles—some 50 percent—appear at ("Rings" 1990). the base of hills, a fact they attribute to the topography's transforming air currents into vortices. However, Increase in Complexity. A third charac­ Delgado and Andrews (1989) observe teristic of the patterned-crops pheno­ that the circles form in a variety of menon is the tendency of the locations—"many... remote from any configurations to become increasingly hills." On the other hand, it is obvious elaborate over time. Looking first just to skeptics that hills offer good at the data in Circular Evidence, we see vantage points for hoaxers to view a definite trend. Delgado and Andrews their creations. (1989) themselves state: "Before the Looking beyond the Wessex area, late 1970s it looked as though single just as the popular media's increasing circles were all we had to consider; but, reportage of the cornfield phenom­ as has always been the pattern, and enon appears to have produced an as we have learnt over the years, increase in circle totals—as even Jenny something, maybe some intelligent

142 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 level, keeps one or more jumps rate forms with a distinctly pictorial ahead. . . ." (p. 122). Again they say: appearance. There have been circles "As soon as we think we have solved with key shapes, and clawlike patterns; one peculiarity, the next circle displays complex designs, consisting of circles an inexplicable variation, as if to say, and rings linked by straight bars and 'What do you make of it now?'" having various appendages and other (p. 12). stylized features; and still other A case in point involves Terence configurations, including free-form Meaden. When he first published The "tadpole" shapes and even a crop Circles Effect and Its Mysteries in mid- triangle ("Field" 1990; Noyes 1990). June 1989, setting forth his wind- Small wonder that Delgado and vortex theory, he declared that "single Andrews, as well as others, suspect rings around single circles always that the force that is making the rotate in a sense opposite to that of designs is being "intelligently manip­ the interior," and he explained that ulated" ("Mystery" 1990). this was necessarily the case (p. 96). But few would have underesti­ Yet no sooner had his book been mated the cereologists' will to believe published than a circle appeared with had they known of the crop-message a ring swirled in the same direction incident of 1987. The message, writ­ (Michell 1989-90)! ten in the typical flattened-crops style Still, Meaden has clung stubbornly and with the words all run together, to his vortex theory. He merely read: "WE ARE NOT ALONE." Delgado acknowledges "the amazing discover­ told readers of Flying Saucer Review: ies of recent years" and speaks of the "At first sight it was an obvious hoax, "difficulties of interpretation," but prolonged study makes me concluding: wonder." Of the crop circles, he said: "Maybe these circles are created by Much of the supposed "evolution" alien beings using a force-field of the phenomenon—to which some unknown to us. They may be manip- have even ascribed "intelligence"— can therefore be explained ration­ ally by an insufficiency of data. The more complete the archive becomes, the better this will be appreciated. (Meaden, in Noyes 1990:76, 85)

To a degree, Meaden is correct; there were some moderately complex forms in earlier periods. But the overall evolution of forms within the Wessex area still seems well established, and— worldwide—the emergence of the pictograms in 1990 clearly represented a new phase. States Meaden: "Admit­ tedly, 1990 does look to be exceptional, but just because the reasons for this wait to be clarified, it would be fatuous to decree [that] an alien intelligence is at hand" (Meaden, in Noyes 1989: This July 1991 pictogram at Barbury Castle Is an 85). example of the increasing complexity of the design of crop circles (Photo by Busty Taylor/ The pictograms are wildly elabo­ Centre for Crop Circle Studies)

Winter 1992 143 ulating existing Earth energy" (quoted photographed on May 19, 1990, was in Randies and Fuller 1990:18-19). Or photographed again on May 27, the beings may be terrestrial ones, whereupon it had developed an addi­ laboring by the sweat of their brows. tional outer ring and ten more satel­ At least the pictograms enabled Jenny lites (Noyes 1990-93). Surely such Randies to wake up to the unmistak­ work-in-progress seems like nothing able evidence that hoaxes were not so much as the effort of industrious only occurring but were running hoaxers. rampant. She has admitted (1991a): The Shyness Factor. A fourth charac­ I do not believe that wind vortices teristic of the patterned-crop pheno­ created the pictograms, though menon is its avoidance of being serious research into that possibility observed in action. There is consid­ continues. ... I can think of very erable evidence of this fact. good reasons why the pictograms First, there is its nocturnal aspect. might well be expected, based on our sure knowledge that crop-circle Delgado and Andrews (1989:156)— hoaxing was greatly increased from who appear to have done the most just a few known cases before 1989 extensive documentation of the phe­ to a far higher figure deduced from nomenon—state: my own personal site investigations in 1990. I would put the hoaxes to Many . . . confirmations of night­ comprise something over 50 percent time creations come from farmers of the total. and people living near circle sites. "It wasn't there last night, but I noticed it first thing this morning" However, Randies still believes that has become almost a stock state­ beyond the hoaxes is a genuine, wind- ment. The evidence is overwhelm­ vortex-caused phenomenon, whereas ing that circle creations only occur there seems no need to postulate such. at night. If the "experts" like Meaden, Delgado, and Andrews cannot tell the genuine Randies and Fuller (1990:53) agree crop circles from hoaxed ones in 50 that "most seem to form during the percent of the cases, one wonders just night or in daylight hours around what the other 50 percent consist of. dawn." However, they insist that Two other aspects of the patterns' "several circles are known to have complexity are revealing. The first appeared during daylight," although concerns the lay patterns, which, like they do not explain. If they are refer­ the configurations themselves, ring to alleged eyewitness accounts of evolved in complexity. Whereas "the vortex-formed circles, or other anec­ swirl lays of previous years had been dotal evidence, they simply fail to orderly and depressed neatly," say make a case. Besides, this concession Delgado and Andrews (1989), 1987 that the circles phenomenon is largely produced more diverse and far more nocturnal is important since that complex lay patterns (p. 126). They characteristic seems to run counter to were even more elaborate in 1989 the wind-vortex theory. (Noyes 1990: 91). Not only does the circle-forming Then there are the crop designs mechanism seem to prefer the dark, that have been formed in stages—not but it appears to specifically resist as single vortex strikes or other brief being seen, as shown by Colin events. For example, a giant three- Andrews's Operation White Crow. ringed circle, with satellites, that was This was an eight-night vigil main-

144 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 tained by about 60 cereologists at can be consigned to the dustbin of Cheesefoot Head (a prime circles 'explanationism,' " he notes an inter­ location) beginning June 12,1989. Not esting apparent characteristic of the only did the phenomenon fail to phenonemon. This is the way an manifest itself in the field under elaborate feature, a segmented-lay surveillance, but—although there had pattern, seemed to have been antici­ already been almost a hundred forma­ pated a few weeks before: In a nearby tions that summer, with yet another field had appeared, says Noyes 170 or so to occur—not a single circle (1990:30), "what seems to be the first was reported for the eight-day period rough sketch of it." He asks, "Was anywhere in England! Then a large something practicing on that earlier circle and ring (the very set that, being occasion?" swirled in the same direction, seemed The "something" apparently uses to play a joke on Meaden by upsetting a variety of techniques in doing its his hypothesis) was discovered about sketching and drawing. This is evident 500 yards away on the very next day! not only in the general variety of lay (Noyes 1990:28; Michell 1989-90: 47- patterns (swirl, radial, etc.), but also 58) in specific details. For example, Del- The following year, the cereolo­ gado and Andrews (1989:139) explain gists attempted to profit from their that one circle "looks as though the mistakes. This time they conducted a floor was first swept around counter­ "top secret" operation termed Oper­ clockwise, then the edge was finished ation Blackbird, which lasted three off with a thin circular stroke in the weeks beginning on July 23, 1990. opposite direction." Another circle is They took $2 million worth of tech­ notable for "serration marks" found nical equipment—including infrared on a few stems and leaves (p. 51); night-viewing camera equipment—to another (p. 142) shows a tightly an isolated site where they maintained wound center (as if the stems were a nighttime vigil. Reuters quoted the wound about a post that was then irrepressible Colin Andrews as removed); and so on. explaining what happened in the early We have already indicated the morning hours: "We had many lights, phenomenon's seeming propensity for following that a whole complex ar­ mischief. As cereologist Archie E. Roy rangement of lights doing all sorts of states (in Noyes 1990:12), "The phe­ funny things. It's a complex situation. nomenon begins to have the look of . . . But there is undoubtedly some-, a large-scale jokester who is leading thing here for science" (L. Johnson us by the nose." John Michell (1989- 1991). Pressed by reporters, Andrews 90) mentions the "perversity" of the denied that his group could have been phenomenon in producing new pat­ fooled by a hoax. However, when they terns that invalidate previous hypoth­ and reporters converged on the site eses. And Hilary Evans (in Noyes they discovered a hastily flattened set 1990:41) observes that "whoever/ of six circles, with a wooden cross and whatever is responsible for the crop a Ouija board placed at the center of circles shows every sign of playing each. games with us."

Other Characteristics. Additional fea­ The Hoax Hypothesis tures of the "circles effect" are varied and revealing. Although Ralph Noyes We believe that, taken together, the insists that "hoax, as a general theory characteristics we have described—

Winter 1992 145 the escalation in frequency, the geo­ circles are disputed. Is the phenom­ graphic distribution, the increase in enon "silent," as some claim, or complexity, the "shyness effect," and sometimes accompanied by a "hum­ other features—are entirely consist­ ming or chirping" sound, which does ent with the work of hoaxers. not appear to be very consistent and That there are hoaxed crop circles might be almost anything? Again, no one can deny; the question is of consider the row of "detached" and the extent of the hoaxing—that is, "dancing" lights seen on the same whether, if all the hoaxes were night a circle was formed: Did they eliminated, there would still be a indeed represent a UFO "above the residue of genuine circles that would trees" or could they have been a line require postulating some hitherto of hoaxers with flashlights on a distant unproved phenomenon, such as wind slope? (Michell, in Noyes 1990:45; vortices or extraterrestrial visitations. Delgado and Andrews 1989: 68) We have seen that some of the If the cereologists cannot offer cereologists' evidence—the alleged much in the way of positive evidence, eyewitness accounts, the supposed they nevertheless make several neg­ correlation of circle sites with hilly ative claims, notably that hoaxers terrain, and some other claims—is at cannot produce circles with the qual­ best unproved and unconvincing. But ities of the "genuine" ones. But what there are additional assertions. are these qualities? When one of us One claim is that tests of grain (JN) debated Delgado on a Denver from crop circles showed a significant radio program, it was difficult to get difference in "energy levels" from that a straight answer from him on this in non-crop-circle areas. In fact, a issue. prominent cereologist, the Earl of Delgado's main argument was the Haddington, submitted "blind" sam­ alleged lack of broken-stemmed plants ples for testing to the Spagyrik in the "genuine" formations, a point Laboratory after receiving confirma­ he and Andrews make repeatedly in tion from its director that it could Circular Evidence. For example, they indeed detect the different "energy say of one circle that "the root end levels." But in a letter to The Cereologist of each stem is bent over and pressed Haddington reported: "Days, weeks down hard with no damage to the passed, months passed, with phone plants, which is why they continued calls at regular intervals always given to grow and ripen horizontally" (p. the same reply. "We will put it [the 138). report of the results] in the post In response, his various equivoca­ tomorrow." After six months Had­ tions were pointed out: e.g., in one dington (1991) concluded: "When they instance "most" of the plants were are not told which sample came from undamaged (or rather unbroken; a Crop Circle and which from a heap some had "serration" marks on them!) of grain in my back yard they are (p. 51). His contradictions were also either unable or unwilling to give a noted. For instance, Andrews states result." (Other claims of differences of one crop ring: "Between the two in "energy levels" come from the many radial splays was a line of buckled cereologists who employ dowsing or plants. Each one was broken at the "witching" wands and pendulums to knuckle along its stem length." Did he detect the mystical forces. Needless to regard the formation as a hoax? No. say, such claims remain unproved.) He only said, as mysteriously as Many alleged characteristics of the possible, "These collapsed plants

146 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 appeared to have suffered whiplash Wales in less than a week, Colin damage, possibly caused by opposing Andrews was described as spokesman forces meeting" (pp. 63-64). In other for a "team of top scientists" who were words, if the plants are unbroken, that going to investigate. Andrews is a mystery; if broken, that is another asserted: "We believe we have some­ mystery. thing of major proportions. . . . It is entirely possible that the circles Because of the scale of the formations, with broken plants are merely the less we are sure there is no human skillfully hoaxed ones. We also con­ involvement." Alas, a follow-up report sidered that the moistening effect of stated: "Red-faced scientists who dew on plants bent at night might investigated the 98 mystery circles in mitigate against breakage, while the Black Mountains of Wales have agronomists we talked with pointed discovered they were made by a local out that from mid-May to early farmer—to encouage grouse to settle" August the English wheat was green (quoted in Randies and Fuller and could easily be bent over without 1990:97). breaking—indeed, could only be In what amounted to a test of his broken with difficulty (Blitzer 1990; ability, Colin Andrews was asked by Daugherty 1990). a BBC film crew to examine a circle Another supposed impossibility is they said they had found. Reportedly, for hoaxers to produce circles without upon visiting the pattern Andrews leaving tracks—there allegedly being declared it genuine, but when the BBC none in the case of "genuine" circles. explained that it was a hoaxed circle But a study of numerous crop-circle made especially for the occasion, he photographs in the various publica­ decided that the circle looked "too tions reveals that virtually every circle perfect" to be genuine after all (Sul­ would have been accessible by the livan 1991). tractor "tramlines" that mark the In several cases hoaxers have come fields in closely spaced, parallel rows. forth and confessed, although often In any case, one can carefully pick the reaction of cereologists is to doubt one's way through a field without them. But Jenny Randies and Paul leaving apparent tracks. Fuller give credence to the claim of Can cereologists really tell a hoaxed four farmhands from Cornwall that circle from a "genuine" one? Randies they had created the second 1986 and Fuller (1990:72) provide a chart circle-and-ring formation at Cheese- of features that supposedly differen­ foot Head—one accepted as genuine tiate one from the other. But Randles's by Delgado and Andrews (Randies and belief that the pictograms are not Fuller 1990: 64-65, 69). authentic, when Fuller and others Since we do not have definite think otherwise, suggests that there knowledge of how particular "gen­ is little objective basis for making a uine" circles were made, the claim that judgment. Says Dennis Stacy (1991), hoaxers cannot have made them is a writing in the MUFON UFO Journal, logical fallacy known as an argument "Most times, we're simply left to take ad ignoranliam. As observers like the investigator's word for it, as if Dennis Stacy (1991) point out, it is some sort of inherited sixth sense now clear that crop cricles are com­ were at work." paratively easy to hoax. In fact, the In fact, rushing to judgment seems different lay patterns and other details a habit of certain cereologists. When discussed earlier suggest there are 98 circles appeared atop two hills in various ways of making circles, and

Winter 1992 147 indeed various techniques have been publicized worldwide. described in newspaper articles and The burden remains with the books and even detailed by the hoax­ cereologists to justify postulating ers themselves. anything other than such hoaxes for An effective method was filmed by the mystery circles. We feel their time the BBC and has impressed those who would be better spent attempting to have seen it. The BBC brought in "a identify more of the hoaxers and to young farmers' tug-of-war team," learn what motivates them to do their with the announcer sagely noting that work. In a chapter titled "Theories they looked surprisingly practiced as Update" in his and Colin Andrews's they made their way down the tracks Crop Circles: The Latest Evidence (1990), left by the sprayers [i.e., down the Pat Delgado promises cryptically, tramlines] to the spot we'd chosen." "What the energy is and who controls Using a rope to establish a radius, they it will be explained at a time considered linked arms, tramped around, and in to be more fitting." In the meantime, no time at all had produced what an insightful reviewer has character­ appeared to be a fine circle, which one ized the circles effect as "a form of of them finished off by careful groom­ graffiti on the blank wall of southern ing on hands and knees. The an­ England" Q. Johnson 1991). nouncer commented: "It was roughly Although the phenomenon has at this point that serious doubts crept clearly exhibited aspects of social in and all sorts of were contagion like other fads and crazes— replaced by images of large ruddy the goldfish-swallowing contest of ones." 1939 comes to mind (Sann 1967: 789- Challenged by the announcer, 792)—the graffiti analogy is especially "Looks as if you'd done it before," the apt. Just as graffiti is a largely clan­ members of the team exchanged grins destine activity produced by a variety and knowing looks. Finally, one said, of scribblers and sketchers posssessed "Well, that would be telling. It's a trade of tendencies to indulge in mischief, secret. I wouldn't like to say. I think urge religious fervor, provide social many farmers in Hampshire would be commentary, show off elaborate knocking on our doors." artistic skills, or the like, so the crop- More recently, in September 1991, circles phenomenon has seemingly two "jovial con men in their sixties" tapped the varied motives of equally claimed they had been responsible for varied circle-makers—from bored or many of the giant wheat-field patterns mischievous farmhands to UFO buffs made over the years. In support of and mystics, to self-styled their claim, they fooled Delgado, who crop artists, and possibly to others. declared a pattern they had produced The phenomenon is indeed myste­ for the tabloid Today to be authentic; rious, but the mystery may be only he said it was of a type no hoaxer could the ever-present one of human have made. The men said their equip­ behavior. ment consisted of "two wooden boards, a piece of string and a bizarre Acknowledgments sighting device attached to a baseball cap" (Schmidt 1991). They demon­ We are grateful to the following people for strated the technique for television their help with this project: Dennis Pearce, crews, e.g., on ABC-TV's "Good for his computer analyses; Morris J. Blitzer and Charles T. Daugherty, for their profes­ Morning America," September 10, sional opinions; Barry Karr, Lynda Harwood, 1991, and their proclaimed hoax was and Kendrick Frazier of CSICOP for their

148 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 research assistance and encouragement; Meaden, G. Terence. 1989-90. A note on J. Porter Henry, Jr., for transcribing the observed frequencies of occurrence of videotape of a BBC program; Joseph-Beth circles in British cornfields. Fortean Times, Booksellers, Lexington, Ky., for help in 53: 52-53, Winter. obtaining books; and to the following, who Michell, John. 1989. The alien corn. The provided assistance in various ways: Becky Spectator. August 12, p. 21. Long (Tucker, Ga.), Keith Pickering (Water- . 1989-90. Quarrels & calamities of the town, Minn.), Dixon J. Wrapp (Sebastopol, cereologists. Fortean Times, 53: 42-48, Calif.), Rob Aken (King Library, Univ. of Winter. Kentucky, Lexington), Glenn Taylor, Robert The mowing devil. 1989-90. Fortean Times, H. van Outer, and Robert A. Baker (Lex­ 53: 38-39, Winter. ington, Ky.), Janet and Doug Fetherling Mystery circles in British cornfields throw (Toronto, Canada), Christopher D. Allan a curve to puzzled scientist. 1990. Newark (Stoke-on-Trent, England), Mr. and Mrs. Star-Ledger, January 10. Charles Hall (Southampton, England), and Noyes, Ralph. 1989. Circular arguments. to all others who have lent assistance, advice, MUFON UFO Journal, 258: 16-18, and encouragement. October. , ed. 1990. The Crop Circle Enigma. References Bath, England: Gateway Books. Pearce, Dennis. 1991. Report to Joe Nickell. July 21. BBC program, "Country File," 1988. Octo­ Pickering, Keith. 1990. Unpublished mono­ ber 9. graph, December 3. Blitzer, Morris J. 1990. Interview by Joe Randies, Jenny. 1991a. 's crop circles, Nickell, August 28. nature's UFO's. International UFO Repor­ Chorost, Michael. 1991. Circles of Note: A ter, May/June, pp. 14-16, 24. continuing bibliography." MUFON UFO . 1991b. Measuring the circles. Strange Journal, 276: 14-17, April. Magazine, 7: 24-27, April. Daugherty, Charles T. 1990. Interview by Randies, Jenny, and Paul Fuller. 1990. Crop Joe Nickell, August 28. Circles: A Mystery Solved. London: Robert Delgado, Pat, and Colin Andrews. 1989. Hale. Circular Evidence. Grand Rapids, Mich.: Rings mysteriously appear in wheat fields. Phanes Press. 1990. Toronto Globe and Mail, September Donnelly, Sally B. 1989. Going forever 25. around on circles. Time, September 11, Sann, Paul. 1967. Fads, Follies and Delusions p. 12. of the American People. New York: England perplexed by crop-field rings. 1989. Bonanza Books. Denver Post, October 29. Schmidt, William E. 1991. Two "jovial con Field of dreams. 1990. Omni. December, pp. men" take credit (?) for crop circles. New 62-67. York Times, September 10. Fuller, Paul. 1988. Mystery circles: Myth in Shoemaker, Michael T. 1990. Measuring the the making. International UFO Reporter, circles. Strange Magazine, 6:32-35, 56-57. May/June, pp. 4-8. Stacy, Dennis. 1991. Hoaxes and a whole lot Grossman, Wendy. 1990. Crop circles create more. MUFON UFO Journal, 277: 9-11, rounds of confusion. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 15, May. 14: 117-118. Story, Ronald D. 1980. The Encyclopedia of Haddington, Earl of. 1991. Letter to The UFO's. Garden City, N.Y.: Doubleday. Cereologist (Spring); quoted in Skeptics Sullivan, Mike. 1991. MUFON's circular rea­ UFO Newsletter, 10: 7, July 1991. soning. North Texas Skeptic, 5(3): 1-3, 8. Johnson, Jerold R. 1991. Pretty pictures. A witness from Whitness. 1989-90. Fortean MUFON UFO Journal, 275: 18, March. Times 53: 37, Winter. Johnson, Larry F. 1991. Crop circles. Georgia Skeptic, 4(3): n.p. Kinder, Gary. 1987. Light Years. New York: Joe Nickell, a CS1COP Fellow, is an investi­ Atlantic Monthly. gative writer and author of many books, McGuire, Donna, and Eric Adler. 1990. More including Inquest on the Shroud of puzzling circles found in fields. Kansas Turin and Pen, Ink and Evidence. John City, Mo., Star, September 21. F. Fischer is a forensic analyst in a Florida Meaden, George Terence. 1989. The Circles Effect and Its Mystery. Bradford-on-Avon, crime laboratory and author (with Nickell) Wiltshire: Artetech. of Secrets of the Supernatural.

Winter 1992 149 Update on the "Mars Effect'

SUITBERT ERTEL

The following article reports on a long-standing controversy about the so-called Mars effect hypothesis of the late Michel Gauquelin. The author, Professor Suitbert Ertel, cooperated with Gauquelin in evaluating certain aspects of Gauquelin's work. The article has been several years in preparation, review, and revision. Following it we publish a brief note by Paul Kurtz criticizing one key aspect of the analysis. Another study of the Mars-correlation claims, this by a French group that worked totally independently from Gauquelin, has just recently been completed. We plan to report on its conclusions when they become available.—Editor it Recent work on Gauquelin's he "Mars effect" is the most provocative claim of astrological descent because it is alleged planetary Tbased on immense statistical research. It was effects reveals launched in 1955 by Michel Gauquelin, who until his untimely death in May 1991 expanded further puzzles. with formidable energy what he thought would eventually release a Kuhnian revolution. Gauquelin was born in Paris in 1928. His interest in astrology began early. At age ten he could calculate a birth chart. At school his chart read­ ings were so amazing that his friends called him Nostradamus. But were the claims of astrology true? Unconvinced by the success of his read­ ings, and by the opinions of astrologers, Michel Gauquelin decided to find out for himself. After graduating with a major in psychology from Sorbonne University in 1949, he began testing astrology nearly full-time, assisted in later years, until 1982, by Francoise Schneider- Gauquelin. His data and results comprise a dozen books (many translated into several languages) and about 150 scientific articles and monographs. During the first stage of this huge effort the results were negative for nearly

150 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 every hypothesis he tested, from also Dean 1986, for an update on tests simple ones like zodiac signs to more of astrologers.) complex ones like planetary aspects However, when Gauquelin tested and transits. He also tested astrologers planetary positions relative to the to see if they could match birth charts horizon, to his surprise the results to people of opposite characteristics, were positive. At the birth of eminent such as long-lived vs. died in infancy. people, some planets (not all of them) But "astrologers regularly fail these seemed to concentrate in some sectors tests and are sometimes so disillu­ of the sky more than they should. (See sioned that they accuse me of rigging Figure 1.) When expressed as a corre­ the cases" (Gauquelin 1983:139). lation the effect was typically 0.05 These negative findings have been (Kelly et al. 1990:64), where 0 is no amply confirmed by others. (For a correlation and 1 is perfect correlation. review, see Eysenck and Nias 1982; So the deviation from what was

HORIZON FIGURE 1: The "Mars effect"

At the birth of eminent people. Gauquelin found that certain planets seemed to be in the sectors shown in black (called "key sectors") more than expected by chance, or in some cases less than expected. The planet's movement was divided into 12 sectors (inner circle, 6 above horizon, 6 below), or 36 sectors (outer circle), in which case the proportion of key sectors was slightly increased. Astronomical and demographic influences were carefully controlled to avoid artifacts, i.e., spurious effects. The surplus or deficit varied between 9 and 28 percent of the expected frequency, mean 14 percent, and was statistically too significant (typically p = .0001) to be a statistical artifact even when adjusted for the number of tests. Sample sizes varied between 866 and 3,047, mean 1,650. Gauquelin tested 11 professions, and in each case he found a relationship with one or more of five bodies, namely. Mars (after which it is named), the moon, Venus, Jupiter and Saturn, but not with the other planets or the sun. Different planets "favored" different professions; for example, the planet preferring key sectors was Jupiter for actors, Saturn for scientists, the moon for writers, and Mars for doctors, military leaders, and sports champions. It was also Mars for painters, writers, and musicians, but here Mars avoided key sectors. No effect was observed at the birth of ordinary people. The figures quoted are from Gauquelin 1984.

Winter 1992 151 expected was very tiny. But it repli­ not the sun and other planets? Why cated when tested on new data and do sector positions count and not was statistically too significant to be zodiac signs or planetary aspects? If ignored. A readable account and a later planet-birth relations are genuine, update, both essential reading for what could be the cause? Since 1985 anyone interested in this work, are I have been investigating these puzzles given by Gauquelin (1983; 1988b). using trustworthy tools of analysis. The rest of this article is a nontech­ 3 Gauquelin Hypotheses. For sports nical summary of what I found. Full champions and Mars the relationship details are available elsewhere (Ertel became known as the "Mars effect." 1986-1991). It became famous, not because it was the only effect, but because it was the Factor Analysis of 36 Sectors. The first to be independently tested. It crucial question guiding my first illustrates two general hypotheses seductive involvement with the that Gauquelin formulated in 1960, planets was simple but vital: Is the based on a total sample of 20,396 Gauquelin data trustworthy? To cases, which guided his work from answer it I submitted his total data then on: to multivariate analyses, for unclean —Different professions are linked data, although possibly supporting a to different planets. particular idea, should not give rise to —The relationship increases with any clean overall pattern. The out­ eminence and disappears for nonem- come was two tests reported in detail inent persons. in Ertel (1990). His subsequent work supported In the first test I factor-analyzed both hypotheses, although the effect the planetary frequencies in 36 sectors size remained very tiny. Please note for births in each of the 11 professions. that I use the term effect in the sense Differences between sample sizes and of statistical correlation, not to imply between sector expectancies were first that planets actually cause something. removed by a statistical procedure known as z-transformation. The A Fascinating Puzzle. Gauquelin's actual analysis was of difference results have created a fascinating values (eminent people minus ordi­ puzzle. His negative results pleased nary people) to control astronomical skeptics but upset astrologers, who and demographical influences, both of found them hard to explain. His which were a concern for early positive results pleased astrologers Gauquelin critics. but upset skeptics, who found them Factor analysis looks at otherwise equally hard to explain.1-2 The out­ perplexing amounts of data to see if come of this uneasy balance has been there is a small set of underlying 40 years of attack from both sides. dimensions that explain most of the Skeptics will not, of course, share with surface variation. For example, factor astrologers any problem in explaining analysis of behavior in a restaurant the negative results. But what about might reveal two underlying factors, the positive results? namely, talking and eating, which The positive results raise many together would account for most of questions. Are they genuine or due the variation in behavior. If planets to artifacts? Why only with eminent are unrelated to professions, then people? If eminent people are related factor analysis should fail to reveal to the moon and four planets, why factors underlying the variation of

152 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 birth frequencies across 36 sectors. they seemed to make sense. Instead, it should reveal only random But this did not solve the remaining variance, i.e., noise. But from 11 x 36 problem. What could mediate a link birth frequencies obtained from 11 between planets and the birth of professions (a total of 20,396 eminent eminent people? Before we consider people), a clear factor was extracted, this problem, we must ask whether on which Gauquelin's key sectors planetary relationships can be inde­ showed appreciable positive loadings pendently replicated. of 0.5 to 0.8. In other words the key sectors explained most of the variation Replication. Does the Mars effect in birth frequencies. replicate? Gauquelin's original finding Thus factor analysis confirmed the was based not on sports champions, idea of planet-birth correlations but on 576 French doctors. It was largely independent of particular replicated on a further 508 doctors, Gauquelin observations. Nevertheless and was also found for 570 sports it could be argued that I was merely champions and 676 military leaders, analyzing data that had been selected all of them French (Gauquelin 1955). in the first place. My second test It was subsequently replicated on avoided this problem. 1,940 doctors, 915 sports champions, and 2,466 soldiers, and this time the Cluster Analysis of 11 Professions. In the births were Belgian, Dutch, German, second test I subjected the 11 profes­ and Italian (Gauquelin 1960). All cases sions to hierarchical cluster-analysis were eminent. This convinced Gau­ based on sector frequencies. This quelin that the Mars effect was not clustered the professions according to an illusion. similarities in their planetary That was the situation in 1960. relationships. Since then, three independent tests on As a control I had 30 students new data have been published, two group the professions by conceptual positive and one negative (respec­ similarity, following which I repeated tively, Comite Para 1976 with 535 the cluster analysis on their grouping cases, Muller 1986 with 1,288 cases, frequencies. This clustered the profes­ and Kurtz et al. 1979 with 408 cases). sions by similarities as perceived by A further test by Gauquelin on new the students. data was positive (Gauquelin 1979 Comparing planetary and student with 432 cases). So the results are not clusters yielded a breathtaking result: totally consistent. The planetary and student clusters One might suspect the inconsis­ showed a near-perfect match (Ertel tency could be due to variations in 1986; 1990). For example, at the first method. Was Gauquelin's method level of clustering, both planets and faulty? Careful checks revealed no students divided the professions into fault with the Gauquelin method of fantasy-driven (e.g., actors, painters, analysis (Eysenck 1975; Scott 1978; musicians) and reality-driven (e.g., Rawlins 1978,1979; Abell et al. 1983). scientists, doctors, soldiers). Politi­ What about calculation errors? Gau­ cians provided the only disagree­ quelin (1984) checked by computer all ment—students preferred reality- his original hand calculations, but the driven and planets preferred fantasy- outcome was essentially the same. driven, although it might be difficult What about nationality? The two to argue with the latter. Gauquelin studies and the two pos­ Whatever the planets were saying, itive replications involved European

Winter 1992 153 births. The negative replication involved U.S. births. Was there some­ TABLE l thing special about being born in the U.S.? The ensuing controversy pro­ Number of U.S. sports champ ions and 4 vided no clear answer. Nor was it percentage with Mars in key sectors. resolved when a new Gauquelin sample of 349 U.S. champions showed Eminence N = 408 N = 349 positive results (Gauquelin 1982). So # % # % I decided to test the data in a new way Low 216 18.1 98 21.4 by focusing on Gauquelin's second Medium 107 21.5 89 21.3 hypothesis, which was stronger than High 85 25.9 162 30.2 his first hypothesis (see above), but which he had investigated less Expected* 22.2 22.2 thoroughly. p of trend .06 .05

Grading the Eminence. Fortunately, *For 36-sector division. reference books on sports are numer­ ous. This means we can assess emi­ nence by counting the number of Thus the previous inconsistency books that cite a given champion. disappears. Other things being equal, a person of high eminence will be cited in more Surprises. Using the same approach, I reference books than a person of low graded the eminence for other large eminence.5 samples, obtained by combining the I took both sets of U.S. sports original Gauquelin data collected by champions, i.e., the 408 cases with no Gauquelin and others. The same Mars effect and the 432 new cases upward trend appears for Mars and from Gauquelin, excluding births 4,391 sports champions, for Mars and after 1950, looked up their names in Saturn and 3,060 artists, and for 21 reference sources, and divided Jupiter and 1,397 actors (Ertel 1987; them into low eminence (no citations), 1988b). The increase in planetary medium eminence (one citation), and effect with increasing eminence is high eminence (two or more cit­ remarkably regular, and could not ations).6 Then for each group I cal­ have been produced by Gauquelin's culated the percentage born with selecting the data—the measurement Mars in key sectors. The results are of eminence requires citation statistics shown in Table 1. and a computer, neither of which were In Table 1, as the eminence of U.S. available to Gauquelin in the 1960s. sports champions increases, so does To me this rules out the possibility the tendency for Mars to appear in of data manipulation. key sectors in both sets of data. But there were surprises in store. Furthermore, the 408 champions are The planetary effect for Venus and generally less eminent than the 349 866 musicians, 1,381 painters, and 813 champions, a point confirmed by writers decreased with increasing fewer mean citations per champion eminence. It also decreased for Saturn (1.04 vs. 1.99).7 In other words, the and 1,193 scientists and less clearly, overall eminence of the 408 cham­ for the moon and 813 writers (Ertel pions is too low to show a Mars effect, 1987; 1990). These deviating results but when graded it shows a trend in are statistically too significant to be line with Gauquelin's hypothesis. dismissed as random fluctuations, and

154 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 they are clearly exempt from any they invoke one mystery to explain suspicion of data manipulation. But do another. Nevertheless, we know that they make sense? possible intervening variables, such as Negative eminence effects tend to geomagnetism, can influence terres­ be associated with Venus and the trial life (e.g., Dubrov 1976; 1989; and moon. Positive eminence effects tend Tomassen et al. 1990). If there is a to be associated with Mars, Jupiter, physical basis, then it should be and Saturn—but not always, as with detectable by appropriate tests. I scientists where the negative trend for decided to find out. Saturn is especially significant. Some groups, such as artists, even show A Physical Basis? At first sight the both positive (Mars) and negative prospects are encouraging. There is no (Venus) eminence effects. So the effect if the planet is too small situation is now more perplexing than (Mercury) or too far away (Uranus, ever before, and an explanation for Neptune, Pluto). But this prospect is opposite eminence effects seems a immediately spoiled by the sun, which long way off. But we might hope that displays no relaxation despite being the general consistency of the opposite the first candidate for extraterrestrial eminence effect would eventually effects that could conceivably lead to reveal some meaningful pattern, as birth-time modulation. was already the case for planets vs. No matter. I took a combined professions. However, irrespective of sample of 3,766 sports champions where this new challenge will lead, the born from 1900 to 1965 and deter­ primary problem remains: How to mined whether astrophysical variables explain planetary effects in the first had any influence on the Mars effect. place? For this purpose the sample is ideal— it is large, it shows a strong Mars Explanations. To date, six approaches effect, and Mars has much astrophys­ have been advanced to explain, on a ical variability. For example, the physical basis, the Gauquelin findings, maximum Mars-earth distance is most of them not mutually exclusive: about seven times the minimum (1) The fetus reacts to planetary distance, the largest variation for any signals and triggers birth (Gauquelin planet. 1960; 1983; 1988a). (2) The signals are Does the Mars effect vary with sensed by the pineal gland (McGillion Mars-earth distance? Does it vary 1980). (3) Men's beliefs have become with angular size and apparent mag­ genetically imprinted (Halbronn and nitude? With declination and right Hutin 1986). (4) The signals are due ascension? With orbital position and to resonance between planetary tides distance from the sun? Does it matter and the magnetosphere (Seymour if Mars is behind the sun? Does the 1990). (5) Planets emit psychic signals effect vary with the prevailing geo­ sensed by the soul (Roberts 1990). (6) magnetic activity on earth? If the Men born under prominent planets Mars effect has any physical basis then were given high status and were the answers should tend to be yes. But expected to have more offspring. This in every case I found the answer was biological advantage became naturally no. The Mars effect was stubbornly selected (Muller 1990). independent of all physical variations All these explanations are incom­ (Ertel 1989). plete because they require unknown I then looked at the influence of energies or implausible links. In effect, geomagnetic activity on planetary

Winter 1992 155 relationships for two very different sector division the difference disap­ groups of eminent people. Group A pears—as it happens many of the later consisted of 6,058 professionals born births have Mars in the initial key with the respective planet in key sectors cut off by 12-sector division. sectors, for example, sports cham­ (See the outer ring in Figure 1 [Ertel pions with Mars in key sectors and 1989].) So Gauquelin's ideas about actors with Jupiter in key sectors. induction are greatly in need of Group B consisted of 8,837 profes­ support from an appropriate test on sionals born with the respective planet a large sample. But having found no not in key sectors, for example, sports evidence so far for any other physical champions with Mars not in key link, I would almost bet that his ideas sectors and actors with Jupiter not in resting on physiological assumptions key sectors. Thus the typical planetary will not be supported. association was present for every birth A clue from aspects? If the angle in Group A and for no birth in Group between, say, Mars and the earth's B. If geomagnetism has an effect, its horizon is important, then the angle variation across the 20 days preceding between Mars and, say, Jupiter might the birth day, the birth day itself, and also be important. This idea is basically 20 days succeeding it should show a consistent with the astrological doc­ significant difference between A and trine of aspects.9 And, if true, might B, with the greatest difference occur­ help to illuminate our planetary ring around the birth day itself. But puzzle. Gauquelin had already tested no difference was discernible. Geo­ 8 his data for aspects, but his results magnetism was without effect. were at chance level and showed no So overall the results showed no significant correlation with planetary evidence whatsoever that the Mars effects. So he concluded that "any effect has a physical basis. But two apparent aspect effects are in fact due possible clues still remained, namely, to sampling fluctuations" (Gauquelin induction and aspects. 1985) A clue from induction? Gauquelin Two years later Francoise held that the Mars effect was dimin­ Schneider-Gauquelin tested the same ished for births after 1950. He attrib­ data. Despite getting the same uted this to the increased prevalence observed frequencies as Gauquelin, of induced births and surgical inter­ she concluded that there was "a vention, and concluded that planetary conspicuous aspect effect" (F. Gauque­ relationships apply only if the birth lin and Shanks 1987). Both Gauque- is natural, which of course also lins compared observed frequencies supported his physical explanation. In with expected frequencies, but they his view, subtle stimulation of the calculated the latter in different ways, fetus by planets could be expected only getting different answers and thus for births occurring under natural grounds for different conclusions. The conditions. problem got stuck in procedural However, his only published data dissent. are for 113 sports champions born in Planetary motion is nonuniform. 1946 or later vs. 319 born earlier, so For example, as seen from the earth, his sample size is very small (Gauque­ Venus is never farther than 48 degrees lin 1979). Worse, I found that the from the sun, and Mars spends five difference between the 319 earlier times longer in conjunction with the births and the 113 later births exists sun than in opposition. So the only for 12-sector division. For 36- expected frequencies of particular

156 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 aspects are difficult to determine. I probably further away than ever. overcame this problem by avoiding Nevertheless a few researchers, expected frequencies altogether. including myself, are still working on Instead of comparing observed vs. it. Indeed, the evidence is challenging expected frequencies, I looked at the enough for me to propose a new test, distribution of births in calendar time. and to invite the collaboration of If sports champions tend to be born others. with Mars aspects, a plot of births vs. time should show a peak during those A New Collaborative Test. My proposed periods when Mars aspects occurred. collaborative test looks at the reality But it did not. There was nothing of the Mars effect, and at the influence special in the curve of birth frequen­ of induced births. It needs three new cies during aspect episodes that might samples of high-eminence persons as have distinguished them from random follows: variation (Ertel 1988c). Because the same data had shown C 200 female champions—nat­ a clear Mars effect, I could not blame ural births the data for a negative aspect result. M 200 male musicians—natural My hoped-for illumination of the births Gauquelin puzzle did not occur. I did C 200 female champions—in­ not much care that this result also duced or surgically assisted denied a conceivable link between the births. Gauquelin effect and traditional astro­ logical doctrine. The sample types have been carefully chosen to test specific hypotheses What Next? As I see it, the present about the Mars effect. Based on state of empirical research on Gauque­ previous results, the sample sizes are lin planetary relationships is more baf­ the minimum required to reliably fling than ever before. On the one detect the predicted effects. The hand, the eminence results support hypotheses being tested lead to the their reality, but the astrophysical following predictions: results do not. When faced with this dilemma the usual reaction is to Mars effect for C will be invoke some as-yet-unidentified sta­ positive. tistical or psychological explanation. Mars effect for M will be After all, the effect size is so small negative. that an otherwise quite trivial factor Difference C vs. M will be would suffice. But likely contenders significant. have been fully debated in the liter­ If zero, or nearly so, the Mars ature, and so far none is convincing effect hypothesis is dis- (e.g., Ertel 1986-1991). confirmed. So what next? Skeptics have been Mars effect for Ci will be neg­ reluctant to see any truth in Gauque- ligible. If not, and C and Ci lin's astrologylike claims, but they are positive, induction effects might eventually have accepted them are disconfirmed. as just an oddity of nature if they had fitted in familiar frameworks. Now, I invite the participation of skeptics with all physical anchors for compre­ in this test, particularly in establishing hension removed, a proper under­ criteria for selection and in the standing of these astro-correlations is collection of data.10 Michel Gauquelin

Winter 1992 157 was always ready to put his life's work active interplay between an apparently to the test, so the willingness of immovable anomaly and the unstoppable skeptics to participate will ensure force of science. 3. For convenience, the present sum­ credibility on both sides. We can then mary is confined to the Mars effect. But I hope for progress by whatever the have also investigated related areas, such as results may eventually teach us. character traits and planetary heredity, largely with negative results that are essentially consistent, in essence, with what Acknowledgments is being reported here (see Ertel 1989; 1991). 4. For details of this debate see articles I am grateful to Ivan Kelly, Rudolf Smit, and in the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 1979-1983 and the two anonymous SI referees for their com­ Zetetic Scholar 1982-1983. ments on earlier drafts, to Geoffrey Dean 5. Citation counts are widely used as for help in refining the present article, and measures of eminence in orthodox research to the late Michel Gauquelin for many (Roche and Smith 1978; Garfield 1979; discussions and unfailing assistance during Simonton 1984). Rank orders by citations are my investigations. generally highly replicable. The reference works used in the present study are given in Ertel (1988b). An alphabetical list of names Notes and citation frequencies is available on request. 1. The most common explanations are 6. Births after 1950 were excluded to statistical bias (shoot enough arrows and avoid the increasing prevalence of induced some are bound to hit), procedural errors births. In the high-eminence group, the ten (two and two make five), selection bias (use most-cited names (with birth years) are as only data that work), and fraud. Over the follows: years, each has been minutely examined by impartial experts, even to the extent of 1921 Charles Ezzard 1934 Maureen Connolly people like myself examining Gauquelin's 1923 Harrison Dillard 1942 Cassius Clay files, and convincingly refuted in what is now 1928 Richard Gonzales 1944 Joe Frazier an extensive literature. Unfortunately, this 1929 Richard Button 1947 Dick Fosbury does not prevent hostile critics like Garrett 1930 Robert Mathias 1948 Peggy Fleming (1988) proceeding as if these detailed examinations and refutations did not exist— Many of these names will be unfamiliar his brief one-pager assures us that "the real today. But sports fans of an older generation explanation of Gauquelin's results" is would probably agree that this selection is statistical, procedural, and selection bias. highly eminent. Worse still, it calls for precisely those checks 7. Most of the 408 sports champions that have already been implemented and were football and basketball players largely published, with results supporting Gauque­ obtained from U.S. reference works, such as lin. Such ill-informed pronouncements do Who's Who in . . . and Hall of Fame books. not reflect well on the skeptical literature. For such sports, local popularity may often 2. The link between Gauquelin and be more important than international astrology is usually overstated. Gauquelin success. However, this is not true of has demolished most astrological claims, and champions in tennis, swimming, track and the remaining link between astrology and field, and other major nonteam sports, whose planetary relationships is feeble. Astrology citations in international reference books are does not predict that only half the planets reliable indicators of outstanding sports work for eminent people and none for achievement. ordinary people. Nor does it predict strength 8. Similarly, Gauquelin (1989) found no for the favored positions—in fact, it predicts effect of geomagnetic activity for eminent the exact opposite. The effect sizes are far professionals. His early work suggested that too tiny to be of use, so the astrologers' planetary relationships between parents and propaganda (that the Gauquelin results children were unaffected by planet-earth support their ideas) is misleading. Informed distance and planet-sun angular separation, skeptics will justifiably see planetary rela­ but were enhanced when geomagnetic tionships as an interesting hiccup but with activity was high. However, later replications insufficient potential to justify serious were less encouraging, even suggesting that pursuit. Nevertheless, future historians of such planetary heredity did not exist (Gau­ science may be thankful for this example of quelin 1988a).

158 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 9. Planets are in aspect when they are pothese: Stein des Antosses oder Prufstein separated by particular angles, such as 0, 60, der Vernunft? Psychologische Rundschau, 90, 120, and 180 degrees. Astrologers claim 39:179-190. that people born with planets in aspect will . 1988b. Raising the hurdle for the exhibit the planetary qualities in combina­ athletes' Mars effect: Association covar- tion. Thus Mars ("energy") in aspect to ies with eminence. Journal of Scientific Jupiter ("expansion") is said to indicate Exploration, 2:53-82. extremism, while Mars in aspect to Saturn . 1988c. Relating planetary aspects to ("control") is said to indicate persistence. human birth: Improved method yields 10. Professor Ivan Kelly, chairman of negative results. Correlation, 8(l):5-21. CSICOP's astrology subcommittee, has . 1989. Purifying Gauquelin's "Grain expressed his willingness to cooperate. of Gold": Planetary effects defy physical Professor Paul Kurtz has given helpful interpretation. Correlation, 9(l):5-23. suggestions. GWUP, the German society of Followed on 24-33 by comments from skeptics, has so far declined to participate. Muller, Gauquelin, and Ertel. Collaboration is vitally important for the . 1990. Gauquelin contentions scrutin­ collection of data, because Gauquelin's ized. In Tomassen et al., 1990:255-266. eminent professionals (amounting to only . 1991. Scrutinizing Gauquelin's char­ one in roughly 20,000 births) are in short acter trait hypothesis once again. Corre­ supply. So help is needed from skeptics in lation, in press. Followed in the same issue heavily populated areas where eminent by Gauquelin's response. births have not been tapped by the Gauque- Eysenck, H. J. 1975. Planets, stars, and lins, such as South America and Asia, and personality. New Behaviour, 29:246-249. which have accessible timed birth records. Eysenck, H. J., and D. K. B. Nias. 1982. Astrology: Science or Superstition? New York: St. Martin's Press (230 references). References Garfield, E. 1979. Is citation analysis a legitimate evaluation tool? Scientomeirics, literature on the Gauquelin work runs to several 1:359-375. hundred references, most of them hard to obtain. Garrett, A. 1988. Astrology and Gauquelin. Readers may contact the author if they have British & Irish Skeptic, 2(5):17. trouble locating references. Gauquelin, M. 1955. [.'Influence des Astres: etude Critique el Experimentale. Paris: Le Abell, G. O., P. Kurtz, and M. Zelen. 1983. Dauphin. For an abridged English trans­ The Abell-Kurtz-Zelen "Mars effect" lation, see Gauquelin 1988b. experiments: A reappraisal. SKEPTICAL . 1960. Les Hommes et Les Astres. Paris: INQUIRER, 7:77-82. Denoe'l. For an abridged English trans­ Comite Para. 1976. [Comite Beige pour lation, see Gauquelin 1988b. l'Etude des Phenomenes Reputes Para- . 1979. The Mars Effect and the Sports normaux]. Considerations critiques sur Champions: A New Replication on 432 une recherche faite par M. M. Gauquelin Famous Europeans. Scientific Documents, dans le domaine des influences vol. 6. Paris: LERRCP. planetaires. Nouvelles Breves, 43:327-343. . 1982. Report on American Data. Dean, G. 1986. Can astrology predict E and Scientific Documents, vol. 10. Paris: N? 3: Discussion and further research. LERRCP. Correlation, 6(2):7-S2 (110 references). . 1983. The Truth About Astrology. Dubrov, A. P. 1976. The Geomagnetic Field Oxford: Basil Blackwell. (The title was and Life: Geomagnetic Biology. New York: imposed by the publisher.) Plenum. . 1984. Profession and heredity exper­ . 1989. Symmetry of Biorhylhms and iments: Computer re-analysis and new Reactivity. New York: Gordon and Breach. investigations on the same material. Ertel, S. 1986. Wissenschaftliche Qualita't Correlation, 4(l):8-24. und progressive Dynamik im Gauquelin- . 1985. Astrological aspects at the birth Paradigma. Zeitschrift fur Parapsychologie of eminent people. Correlation, 5(l):25-25. und Grenzgebiete der Psychologic 28:104- . 1988a. Planetary Heredity. San Diego, 135. Calif.: ACS Publications. An abridged . 1987. Further grading of eminence: English translation of the 1966 French Planetary correlations with musicians, edition, with an update to 1988. painters, writers. Correlation, 7(l):4-17. A . 1988b. Written in the Stars: The Proven small omission is restored in 7(2):34. Link Between Astrology and Destiny. . 1986a. Gauquelin's Planetenhy- Wellingborough: Aquarian Press. An

Winter 1992 159 abridged English translation of Gauquelin . 1979. Report on the U.S. test of the (1955; 1960), with an update to 1988. Gauquelins' "Mars effect." SKEPTICAL . 1989. Reply to Ertel. Correlation, INQUIRER, 4(2):26-29. 9(l):26-29. Roberts, P. 1990. The Message of Astrology: Gauquelin, M., and F. Gauquelin. 1979-80. The New Vitalism and What It Means for Star U.S. sportsmen display the Mars Our Future. Wellingborough: Aquarian effect: A comment on the Kurtz-Zelen- Press. Abell experiment. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Roche, T., and D. L. Smith. 1978. Frequency 4(2):31-43. of citations as a criterion for the ranking Gauquelin, F., and T. Shanks. 1987. Analyzed of departments, journals, and individuals. by decade, the aspect effect increases. Sociological Inquiry, 48:49-57. Astro-Psychological Problems, 5(l):19-25. Scott, E. 1978. Letter to Zelen, Kurtz, and Continued in 5(3):7-17. Abell. Personal communication cited by Halbronn, J., and S. Hutin. 1986. Histoire de Gauquelin 1983:107. I'Astrologie. Paris: Artefact. Seymour, P. 1990. Astrology: The Evidence of Kelly, I. W., G. A. Dean, and D. H. Saklofske. Science, rev. ed. London: Arkana. Addi­ 1990. Astrology: A critical review. In tional details kindly provided by the Philosophy of Science and the Occult, 2nd author, May 1991. ed., 51-81, ed. P. Grim. Albany: State Simonton, D. 1984. Scientific eminence: University of New York Press. Historical and contemporary. Scientomet- Kurtz, P., M. Zelen, and G. O. Abell. 1979. rics, 6:169-182. Results of the U.S. test of the "Mars Tomassen, G. J. M., W. de Graaf, A. A. effect" are negative. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Knoop, and R. Hengeveld, eds. 1990. Geo- 4(2):19-26. cosmic Relations: The Earth and Its Macro- McGillion, F. 1980. The Opening Eye. London: environment. Proceedings of the First Coventure. International Congress on Geo-cosmic Muller, A. 1986. Lasst sich der Gauquelin- Relations, Amsterdam, 19-22 April 1989. Effekt bestatigen? Untersuchungsergeb- Wageningen: Pudoc. nisse mit einer Stichprobe von 1288 hervorragenden Arzten. Zeitschrift fur Parapsychologie und Grenzgebiete der Suitbert Ertel is professor of psychology Psychologie, 28:87-103. For an abridged at the University of Goltingen. His English version see NCGR Journal, Fall interests are the cognitive and linguistic Equinox 1989,17-20. features underlying personal belief sys­ . 1990. Planetary influences on human behaviour ("Gauquelin effect"): Too tems, that is, open and closed minds, absurd for a scientific explanation? including paranormal claims by open- Journal of Scientific Exploration, 4(1) 85- minded proponents. Mailing address: 104. Institut fur Psychologie, Gosslerstrasse Rawlins, D. 1978. Memorandum on the 14, D-3400 Gottingen, Germany. relation of the Mars' solar proximity to M. Gauquelin's Mars-sports results and Electronic mail address: SERTEL claims. Phenomena, 4(3):22. @DGOGWDGl.BlTNET.

160 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 A Dissenting Note on Ertel's "Update on the 'Mars Fffect "m^^w^

PAUL KURTZ

seriously question Ertel's method, and basketball players reach high emi­ described in the preceding article, for nence in the United States, but these determining "eminence." I will con­ sports were not popular in Europe when fine my discussion only to the "Mars these sports who's whos were written. effect" as related to "sports champions," Thus I do not think that Ertel's analysis for this allegedly showed the highest sustains Gauquelin, at least in regard to correlation between achievement and the American sample. planetary positions. Surprisingly, Gau- Regarding Gauquelin's subsequent quelin maintained that the so-called U.S. sample, entirely selected by him, Mars effect did not apply to sports we have said that his principles of champions, nor even to eminent sports selection differed from those he used champions listed in "who's whos," but earlier. Our conclusion then was that only to the most eminent of sports Gauquelin's so-called Mars effect, at champions, a very small sample. A very least for the American study, could be weak "effect" indeed. attributed to selective bias on the part Kurtz, Abell, and Zelen had ques­ of Gauquelin. tioned Gauquelin's method of determin­ My own advice to Ertel was that he ing eminence. The criteria seemed to would do more to further research into fluctuate with each study. In the various the Gauquelin effect by doing an inde­ French and European samples in which pendent study without any involvement Gauquelin selected the data, he claimed by Gauquelin in the selection or inter­ evidence for a Mars effect. We suspected pretation of data. He has not done so his method of selection and said that here, but has simply analyzed Gauque­ Gauquelin's experimenter bias could lin's data, which we believe is question­ have intervened in the selection process. able. Regretfully, it is difficult to accept Gauquelin maintained that his criterion Gauquelin's thesis when he not only of eminence was "international fame." formulates the hypothesis of a planetary Regarding the American study of 408 effect but is intimately involved in the sports champions, where our findings assembling of data. Hence, I welcome were negative (i.e., no support for a Ertel's proposal for another independent "Mars effect"), Gauquelin maintained test. We also await the results of a fresh that the results were positive; for by post sample of sports champions recently hoc analysis, he eliminated football and completed in France. basketball players, a large part of the Two questions can be raised: (l) Is American sample. the present data in support of the Mars Ertel now supports Gauquelin's effect reliable? (2) If so, why does the evaluation because he does not find U.S. effect occur? I am afraid that skeptics football and basketball players cited will have to be assured that the data are often in European "who's whos." (See reliable and that data manipulation has Ertel's note 7.) But this post-hoc criter­ not occurred before we can hope to ion is questionable. American football resolve the second question. •

Winter 1992 161 Magic Melanin Spreading Scientific Illiteracy Among Minorities: Part II c

BERNARD ORTIZ DE MONTELLANO

Part I, on multicultural pseudoscience, appeared in the Fall 1991 issue.

frocentric beliefs include a range of tenets. One of the fundamental ideas is that # \ Egypt is the source of civilization and that during its glorious days Egyptians were black. For some, Egypt was the source for European civilization by way of the Greeks, a claim for which there is some evidence. More extreme proponents claim that Egypt was the \WirSS2FmMBJ&- source of the New World civilizations of Mesoamerica and the Andes as well as Chinese and Indian civilizations. These are claims for Pseudoscientific which there is no credible evidence. As described theories about previously (Ortiz de Montellano 1991), these ideas are being taught in the several urban race provide the school districts that have adopted the Portland theoretical basis African-American Baseline Essays. The Science Baseline Essay (Adams 1990a) claims, among for many other things, that thousands of years ago Afrocentric claims. Egyptians flew in gliders, electroplated gold, knew accurately the distance to the sun, and discovered the Theory of Evolution. The essay also claims that "the Ancient Egyptians were known the world over as the masters of 'magic' (psi): precognition, psychokinesis, remote viewing and other undeveloped human capabil­ ities." Psi is proclaimed to be a scientific discipline that is studied in leading universities today (Adams 1990a: 41-42). In our society, science has replaced religion as the main source of explanation about the natural world. Consequently, people as diverse as Madison Avenue hucksters and New Age gurus know that claiming a scientific basis for

162 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 a belief will make it easier to sell a product. Similarly, a particular group of African-Americans, sometimes "Welsing claims further that called the "melanin scholars" or the everything that happens on "KMWR [pronounced khemware, after Kemet, the name for Egypt] Scientific Earth is converted to energy and Consortium," is providing a "scien­ beamed up to Sirius B. tific" rationale for Afrocentricity. Some of the better-known members She maintains that the high of the group are: Leonard Jeffries, melanin content of black people professor of African-American studies at the City University of New York; enables them to tap into that Wade Nobles, professor of African- information." American studies at San Francisco State University; Frances Cress Wel- sing, a Washington, D.C., psychiatrist; claims that melanin is involved in the Richard King, a Los Angeles psychi­ regulation of all psychological and atrist; and Hunter Adams, a technician physiological processes of the human at Argonne National Laboratory and body. They state that because of this author of the Portland Baseline Science people with high melanin levels have Essay. The group's message is spread better muscular coordination (which primarily by broadcasts on black radio makes them better athletes), are men­ stations of lectures given at annual tally superior, have unusual faculties, melanin conferences. This method of such as ESP, and are influenced by the dissemination makes documenting magnetic fields of other humans and their assertions difficult; melanin of the earth (Montgomery 1989). scholars do not publish in journals or They attribute to melanin numerous in easily accessible books. The main other properties. Lectures about source of my information about this melanin are replete with scientific- group is a number of lectures broad­ sounding terminology: substantia cast on the Detroit Public School's nigra, solitons, phonons, electromag- educational station, WDTR 90.9 FM. nstic radiation, melanocyte, extra­ The key idea of the melanin scho­ pyramidal tract, pineal gland, lars is that melanin, a widely distrib­ hypothalamus, and so on. This creates uted pigment in the natural world, the impression that there is a scientific found in all humans, has a number base for the claims. of extraordinary properties that are best manifested in black people. They The alleged properties of melanin, claim that melanin is a superconduc­ mostly unsupported, irrelevant, or tor, that it absorbs all frequencies of distortions of the scientific literature, the electromagnetic spectrum, that it are then used to justify Afrocentric can convert sound energy to light assertions. One of the most common energy reversibly, and that it can is that humans evolved as blacks in function as a minicomputer to process Africa, and that whites are mutants information. According to the group, (albinos, or melanin recessives) (Wel­ in addition to the skin, hair, and eyes, sing 1989; King 1991). No one dis­ melanin is widely dispersed in the putes that humans evolved from human body, for example, in twelve Africa, but the rest of the statement sites in the brain, in all the major profoundly distorts genetics. Afro- organs, and in all muscles. The group centrics treat skin color as if it was governed only by one gene, and thus

Winter 1992 163 subject to absolute Mendelian domi- argues that cocaine is part of the racist nance/recessiveness. If this were true, plot because melanin and cocaine are humans could only be black or white. both alkaloids and have a high affinity However, skin color, like intelligence for each other. Barnes also claims that or height, is controlled by several blacks can test positive for cocaine genes, which explains why humans even a year after its most recent use, exhibit a wide color spectrum. Whites because cocaine co-polymerizes into do not exhibit a total absence of melanin. Melanin is not an alkaloid melanin, but only a lesser amount. and there is no evidence whatsoever That is why whites can increase the for melanin co-polymerizing with amount of melanin in their skin by cocaine in vivo. exposure to the sun. There is also no The idea that melanin is an essen­ evidence that the amount of melanin tial component of humanity and that in internal organs correlates with the it confers many desirable powers is amount of melanin in the skin. For expanded by others into classical example, the amount of melanin in the racism. Wade Nobles (1989) states substantia nigra is normal in albinos that whites stopped evolving with the (Siegel et al. 1989: 755). development of the central nervous Welsing (1989; 1991) uses the system (CNS), but that blacks con­ notion of whites as melanin recessives tinued to evolve an essential melanic to explain white racism on a "scien­ system (EMS). From this he develops tific" basis. She professes that white an "equation": CNS + EMS = HB men have to destroy black men in self- (human being)—that is, whites are not defense because black men have the fully human. Others, such as Richard potential to destroy white men genet­ King (1991), express the same idea by ically. According to Welsing, a white their repeated use of the term hueman child can only be produced by having instead of "human," with the conno­ a white mother and father. She claims tation that only people with color are that all other combinations can only truly human. The idea that people to produce black children, and that black be discriminated against are not fully men are considered dangerous human has always been used by racists because they could force white women as a justification for their actions. It to have sex. These ideas are easily is sad to see it being used by people acceptable in parts of the African- who have suffered so much from American community where there is racism themselves. broad support for theories that claim The ideas of the melanin scholars the existence of a conspiracy to are being spread in a much more destroy black males. The high rates insidious way. The melanin scholars of murder, of imprisonment, and of are the theoreticians behind the Science drug use, as well as the high rates of Baseline Essay; its author, Hunter unemployment among black males, Adams, is one of the principal mem­ are cited as evidence for the con­ bers of the group. It is interesting, spiracy. The seemingly scientific however, that Adams does not use explanation and academic credentials melanin as the basis for many of his of some of the speakers are impressive examples. Maybe the claims for to audiences uneducated in science. melanin are so radical that the asso­ This appealing "scientific" explanation ciation of the African-American Base­ for white racism, in turn, makes other line Essays with melanin would hinder melanin claims more likely to be their adoption by school districts. accepted. For example, Barnes (1990) However, many assertions in the

164 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 Baseline Science Essay that seem incon­ for years in order to be prepared to gruous or are asserted without any become scientists. Black children could rationale can only be explained or put respond that in order to be a scientist into context by referring to theories all they need do is "Let my melanin espoused by the "melanin scholars." pick up the vibes." For example, the Essay claims that Welsing (1989) also provides the Egyptians in antiquity were black, that explanation for another of the Baseline Egyptians were far in advance of other Essay's disturbing statements. Adams civilizations, and that Egypt was the states that the Dogon of Mali discov­ origin of most scientific inventions. ered a dwarf companion of Sirius, The explanation of the melanin scho­ Sirius B, which is invisible to the naked lars for these statements, unstated in the essay, is that melanin confers a mental advantage upon its possessors. "They claim that melanin is a Because melanin is the reason for their superconductor, that it absorbs achievements, it is essential that Egyptians be black. all frequencies of the The claim in the Science Baseline electromagnetic spectrum, that it Essay that Egyptians (i.e., blacks) have extrasensory powers is based on work can convert sound energy to by Frances Cress Welsing (1975). light energy reversibly, and Welsing proposed that a correlation between high blood pressure and that it can function as a blackness of skin was due to the fact minicomputer to process that melanin picks up energy vibra­ tions from other people under stress. information." The darker the skin, the more melanin, and thus the more vibrations eye. He also claims that they knew would supposedly be picked up. In that it is extraordinarily dense and turn, this higher sensitivity to vibra­ that it has an orbital period of 50 years tions of others would lead to higher (Adams 1990a: 60). Adams presents blood pressure in the recipients. this theory without explanations or Welsing (1989) expanded this idea to justifications, even though he is aware explain why George Washington of Welsing's explanation. This leaves Carver was so successful in discover­ the reader wondering how the Dogon ing useful products from plants. were supposed to have accomplished According to Welsing, Carver owed these feats. According to Welsing, the his success not to his master's degree Dogon's melanin functions in a man­ in chemistry, but to the fact that he ner similar to an infrared telescope, was very dark. She states that Carver and they were able to detect Sirius B discovered the components of plants through the melanin in their pineal and their uses because the plants glands. Welsing claims further that "talked to his melanin and told him everything that happens on Earth is what they were good for" during his converted to energy and beamed up early morning strolls in the woods. to Sirius B. She maintains that the The consequences of a wide accep­ high melanin content of black people tance of this notion by African- enables them to tap into that in­ American schoolchildren could be formation. She alleges that Greek quite damaging. Children could reject oracles were black and that their appeals from teachers to study hard melanin enabled them, as it does

Winter 1992 165 present-day blacks, to foresee the technology. In African-American Baseline future. Essays. Portland, Ore.: Multnomah Adams (1990a) claims that astrol­ School District. . 1990b. Lecture at the 1st Annual ogy is scientific, but again does not Melanin Conference, San Francisco, provide an explanation. He presented 1987; broadcast titled "African World his rationale in lectures at the 1987 View," WDTR 90.9 FM, September 25. Melanin Conference (Adams 1990b). Barnes, C. 1990. Melanin: The Chemical Key The ability of melanin to absorb and to Black Greatness. Houston, Tex.: C.B. Publishers. respond to magnetic fields is a key King, Richard. 1991. Lecture at the 5th component of his explanation of Annual Melanin Conference, Los astrology. Adams also claims "that Angeles, April 19-21, 1991; broadcast movement [magnetic motion] is titled "African World View," WDTR 90.9 reflective of the movement of the sun, FM, June 4. Montgomery, Bonachi. 1989. Broadcast moon, planets, and stars. Thus, at titled "African World View," WDTR 90.9 birth, every living thing has a celestial FM, April 18; quoting from Carol Barnes, serial number, or frequency power Melanin: The Chemical Key to Black spectrum. . . . This is the basis for Greatness. astrology right here." Nobles, Wade. 1989. Lecture at the 1st Annual Melanin Conference, San Fran­ The melanin scholars have man­ cisco, 1987; broadcast titled "African aged to avoid public scrutiny because World View," WDTR 90.9 FM, June 27. of the manner in which their message Ortiz de Montellano, B. R. 1991. Multicul­ tural pseudoscience: Spreading scientific has been disseminated. Leonard Jeff­ illiteracy among minorities—Part I. ries has aroused the most publicity SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, 16, 46-50, Fall. because of his position in media- Siegel, G., B. W. Agranoff, R. W. Albers, and intensive New York City (see, e.g., P. B. Molinoff. 1989. Basic Neurochemis- Tierney 1991) and his propensity for try, 4th ed. New York: Raven Press. Tierney, John. 1991. New York professor: openly racist statements. However, Charismatic lectures and a penchant for the racist views of this group can controversy. New York Times, Septem­ potentially increase further the racial ber 7. hostility in this country by providing Welsing, F. C. 1975. Blacks, hypertension, and the active skin melanocyte. Urban a supposed "scientific" rationale that Health, 4(3):64-72. in one stroke explains white oppres­ . 1989. Lecture at the 1st Annual sion and the genetic superiority of Melanin Conference, San Francisco, blacks. As the theoreticians behind the 1987; broadcast titled "African World Portland Baseline Essays, they can View," WDTR 90.9 FM, September 5,12. increase scientific illiteracy among . 1991. Broadcast titled "African World View," WDTR 90.9 FM, June 25. those poor urban children who are most in need of better science teach­ ing. These children do not need Bernard Ortiz de Montellano is professor pseudoscience traveling under the of anthropology at Wayne State Univer­ guise of multiculturalism. sity, Detroit, Michigan. He is one of the founding members of the Society for the Advancement of Chicanos and Native References Americans in Science (SACNAS). His Adams, H. H. 1990a. African and African- latest book is Aztec Medicine, Nutrition, American contributions to science and and Health (Rutgers, 1990).

166 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 Adventures in Science and Cyclosophy

CORNELIS DE JAGER

Abstract: I discuss the methods of scientific research and illustrate this by describing the way astronomy emerged from astrology. I list some of the criteria used in modern scientific research, and 1 describe some of the main errors of pseudoscience. The "religion of the Great Pyramid" is based on the accidental coincidence of certain structural data of the pyramid with fundamental astronomical data. 1 show that this applies to my bike too. 1. The Astrological Roots of Astrophysics A strophysics certainly has its astrological "A rumination on roots. For the ancients, living, as they the astrological A.thought, on a flat earth, the firmament roots of of fixed stars could be no more than a dome over the then known parts of the earth, an area astrophysics and with a radius of a few thousand kilometers. Surprisingly, there were amid these stars other on the scientific objects, the wandering stars or planets, most method and of them brighter than the fixed objects, and roving along seemingly irregular paths through pseudoscience the starry vault. It is a logical deduction, in the leads straight (or philosophy of the ancients, that these planets roundly) to were conveying messages of the gods to the mortals below. It was therefore imperative to consideration of decipher these messages; hence careful obser­ my bike." vation of the planets was a primordial task. (Besides, a fair degree of curiosity may have also been at the basis of the ancient studies of the planetary motions.) In the course of these studies certain regularities were discovered in planetary motions, and an analytical approach to the study of planets gradually developed. Thus astrology

Winter 1992 167 changed into astronomy. Models of idea, still had Neoplatonic ideas, e.g., the planetary motions emerged—that the assumption that the planets move of Ptolemy being best known; but in circular orbits. This was assumed throughout ancient times the astro­ to be so because the circle was logical roots were clearly there and considered to be the most perfect often intertwined with astronomy. structure and "the Divinity always For a long time, there was even no acts geometrically" (Pythagoras). distinction in the name. In addition, Brahe's system, seemingly a step back­ concepts of the universe were nearly wards as compared with that of exclusively based on the Platonic ideas Copernicus, did indeed better fit the that there must exist an ideal world, observations. This may be another and that the observed reality is some reason it took more than half a kind of primitive and incomplete century before Copernicus's ideas got reflection of that ideal: our minds are accepted—yet by a small group. Actu­ supposed to have certainty of the ally, only after Galileo and Kepler did reality, because it is thought that we his ideas get more generally accepted, should be able to understand the true albeit in an improved and modified contents of the changing appearances. form. In that connection the question That Roger Bacon (13th century), arose occasionally in the scientific but also Tycho (16th century) and literature of whether Ptolemy was a even Newton, practiced alchemistry fraud: it is known that he sometimes may seem strange in our eyes, but the chose those observational data that study of alchemistry had the virtue best fitted his model predictions, in of stressing the empirical approach— order to illustrate his theory, and it contrary to astrology. seems that in other cases he even did not hesitate to change the data to 2. The Scientific Method? obtain a better fit. In present times this approach would certainly be Science is the ensemble of human considered as a clear proof of fraud­ endeavors to ulent science, but in the light of the —discover and describe the struc­ Platonic ideas of the Greek era such ture and origin of the surrounding a behavior was legitimate. reality and The basic notion that research —understand the causal relations should be empirical—hence the idea between events and to establish the that observations come first and only laws that govern them. thereafter come interpretation and Hence science is based on the the establishment of regularities and assumption that the same boundary "laws"—appeared in clear form only conditions should yield the same at the end of the Middle Ages, results. However, exactly the same although there were enlightened boundary conditions never occur minds in earlier times already. Re­ twice in nature. Our laws are there­ versely, Neoplatonic ideas continued fore abstractions. These abstractions to be entertained, even till the present are moreover only valid as long as time. their further refinement or correction The Renaissance and the period has not been brought to light. In the thereafter show many examples of the course of time the domain and volume struggle for a clear concept of the of mankind's knowledge has increased scientific method. Copernicus, on one enormously, but there are levels and hand the proponent of a revolutionary shades in our knowledge: while cer-

168 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 I'.SJ L/uB"l.i7)t 16-*

tain laws are very well established and logical and rational. can be considered as "certainly true" —The argumentation should be to a high degree of absoluteness, the complete and adequate; there should interesting domains are the fringes of be no voids in the argumentation. the area of our knowledge where the —The hypothesis should be falsi- scientific battlefield is situated. It is fiable; the experimental proof should there that the real adventure of be repeatable. scientific progress takes place, with all —The simplest assumption is often its great successes and disappoint­ the best (Occam's Razor). ments. —The chance for accidental coin­ The question then arises of cidence between data should be neg­ whether a real and standardizable ligibly small. "scientific method" does exist. In my —Very unlikely or extraordinary view it does not. Scientific research claims should be met with extreme is the application of logic, common care and built-in suspicion and must sense, and experience to the interpre­ be supported by extraordinary tation of the observations in their evidence. most general form. In the course of Yet one should not forget the centuries mankind has developed and dialectic aspect that the most success­ sharpened techniques for the deduc­ ful and productive scientists are in tion of "laws" from observations, or many cases precisely those who dare to check if a scientific conclusion (or to advance a new hypothesis on the a new scientific law) is closer to basis of just-emerging new data or correctness than previous laws, but scanty or primitive information, often the methods are diverse and many. guided by intuition (which is just Some of these criteria are: condensed and rich experience) rather —The argumentation should be than by overwhelming and convincing

Winter 1992 169 evidence of the available facts. found that less steep pyramids The difference between science and survived. pseudoscience is that in the latter Piazzi-Smith and others advanced some or all of the above criteria are extreme claims. By introducing the not applied in the scientific process. "pyramid-yard" (p.y.), which was Pseudoscience— 1/20,000,000 of the earth's diameter —accepts results that lack proof of (64 cm), it was found that the baseline sufficient quality; length of the Great Pyramid was —deletes or changes empirical data 365.25 p.y.—exactly the number of that do not fit with a favorite assump­ days in the year. Does this mean that tion or theory, or selects only the best- the builders of the pyramid knew the fitting data; earth's diameter? Or the precise —uses coincidences or correlation length of the year? Note that accept­ for proof, and takes correlation for ing these precise numbers means that causality; the base length of the pyramid had —often gives excessive weight to been measured with the surprising a theory; expecting that it will allow accuracy of 15 cm, which seems one to explain everything still difficult in view of the actual state of unexplained. the pyramid. It also appears that twice the diagonal contains 25,826 pyramid inches (one p.i. being 1/25 p.y.), which 3. The Religion of the Great is the precession period in years of the Pyramid and My Bike earth's axis. Note again that those giving this number with this accuracy The remarks above on pseudoscience implicitly claim to have measured the can be illustrated. While astrology has diagonal with a precision of less than had its days and has nearly disap­ a pyramid inch, hence better than a peared from the scientific scene, other centimeter! pseudoscientific beliefs related to astronomy are still around. One of But one of the more surprising these is the "religion" of the Great statements was that a precise Pyramid, which arose when, in the mathematical formula could be found first part of this century, the first relating the base length of the pyramid explorers investigated the Egyptian in pyramid yards with the distance pyramids. Particularly the pyramid of between the earth and the sun in Cheops attracted attention. It has kilometers! This would mean that the indeed some astronomical charac­ builders of the pyramid already knew teristics. It is oriented north-south the length of the kilometer several with a high precision (1 in 3,000) and thousand years before the introduc­ the ratio between height and base tion of the metric system! More such length is 1 to nil. This first fact means remarkable relations between struc­ that the ancient Egyptians had a tural data of the Great Pyramid and precise notion of the points of the data from (astro-)physics or human compass, and the latter has been history were advanced, and they interpreted as evidence that the provoked interest and surprise in the ancients knew the number n already. public at large. The religion of the I think this latter coincidence may be Great Pyramid bloomed. accidental, because later research has Several aspects of pseudoscientific shown that earlier pyramids were reasoning are clearly apparent in this built steeper but that these collapsed. description. The most obvious one is After several experiments it was the exaggerated belief in coincidences

170 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 between numbers and the underesti­ Aquarius: cyclosophy. mation of the possible number of The measurements were expressed mathematical relations between sim­ in Holy Bike Inches, being 17 mm. This ple numbers. is so since 1 is the first prime number To illustrate this I wish to advance and 17 the seventh, and because seven here a new religion, based on my is the holy number. Dutch bike. Why a Dutch bicycle? Calling P, W, L, and B the four Evidently because a bicycle has in my measured quantities, it turns out that country, the Netherlands, virtually the same status as the pyramids have P2 V LB = 1823, in Egypt. In my country we have 15 million Dutch, but we have 16 million which is the ratio between the masses bikes. of the proton and the electron. It I measured the diameters of my seems surprising that such a simple bike's: relation between three of the param­ —pedals, symbolizing the forward- eters of my bike yields such a fun­ going dynamics; damental constant; this may indicate —front wheel, which directs my that the Creator of my bike was very ways into the unknown future; gifted indeed. Maybe he had supra- —lamp, enlightening my paths; normal gifts, because he may not have —bell, through which I commun­ been aware of the values of the masses icate with encounterers. of the proton and the electron? Thus I laid the building stones for But there is more. The "fine a new holistic four-dimensional reli­ structure constant," a very important gion apt to the coming New Age of number in fundamental physics, is

Mew? My

MI6WTV ,

t-»w\Wv :«

Winter 1992 171 137.0. It appears that A'- Bb- Cc- D"

P7W2 = 137.0. where a, b, c, and d can have all integer values from -5 to +5, with the addition The constant of gravitation is of the numbers + and - pi, 1/2 and 1 G = 6.67 x io-8, while h. There are then 83,521 such com­ binations possible, and the chance that F5JL/WB = 6.67 x lo-a one of them fits with the measured quantity to within 0.01 percent is My bike also shows relation to about unity. (Note that in the previous fundamental astronomical data. For section I was careful enough to give example, the distance between the all measured quantities in no more earth and the sun, expressed in units than three or four digits). A simple of 100 million km, is 1.496.1 find that computer program suffices to print all those combinations that fit with the F" B"'/l = 1.496. measured quantity to within, say, 0.1 percent. In most cases, some ten The velocity of light is 2.998 x 10s possible combinations are then km/second. My bike parameters yield printed, out of which I selected the best. A more sophisticated computer W P2 V" B5 = 2.999 x los. program than mine, with some more variables or a few more formulas, May I suggest that the difference would do much better. in the last digit should be a reason for Coincidences occur regularly in physicists to reconsider measuring the numerical experiments, as in daily life. velocity of light. For indeed: in the Those who do not realize that such light of the foregoing coincidences it coincidences are not "rare" often seems very unlikely that the error is incorrectly use them to imply para­ with my bike. normal events. Most people greatly I could give a much longer list of underestimate the enormous amount combinations, relating my bike to any of possible combinations between arbitrary number ranging from the numbers. And that has helped make age of Santa Claus to the number of it easy for many pseudoscientific flowers in my garden. They should all misconceptions to arise and grow, and fit perfectly. gain public appeal.

4. Comments on Cyclosophy Cornells de Jager is an astrophysicist with the Laboratory for Space Research, There is nothing peculiar either with Sorbonnelaan 2; 3584 CA Utrecht, The the Great Pyramid or with My Bike. Netherlands. This article is based on his Let me choose four numbers A paper at the International Skeptics through D, arbitrarily chosen and Conference, Free University of Brussels, arranged in the form Belgium, August 10-11, 1990.

172 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 Searching for Security in the Mystical The Function of Paranormal Beliefs

MARTIN R. GRIMMER

ver the past two decades, the paranor­ mal has enjoyed something of a revival Owithin popular culture. There have been countless books, magazine and newspaper articles, movies, and television programs devoted to topics ranging from UFOs, the , lost continents, Yetis, and Belief in the the Loch Ness monster, to pyramid power, astrology, levitation, telepathy, precognition, paranormal and poltergeists. Sociologist Marcello Truzzi appears to satisfy (1972) suggested that this boom in paranormal interest began around the late sixties, noting some very basic, if that Ouija boards outsold such popular board inconsistent games as Monopoly. human needs. It Lately, the paranormal seems to have mani­ fested in the form of the New Age movement— will probably a loose combination of ideas encompassing spir­ remain with us itualism, mysticism, alternative healing, and a healthy dose of commercialism. Some may think forever. this is mainly an American phenomenon, but it is estimated that Australians alone now spend $100 million a year on personal-transformation courses that delve deeply into such fringe areas as rebirthing, shamanism, channeling, and crystal healing. To some observers, the New Age movement is seen as a sort of quasi-religious justification for "yuppiedom"—how to make money and feel "really great" about it at the same time.

Winter 1992 Research studies worldwide have written on this topic, several themes revealed an extensive belief in and in the human motive to believe can acceptance of the paranormal. In a be identified. survey of the readers of Britain's New First, paranormal beliefs may oper­ Scientist magazine, a high proportion ate to reassure the believer that there of whom are reported to hold post­ is order and control in what may graduate degrees, Evans (1973) found otherwise appear to be a chaotic that 67 percent believed that ESP was universe (Frank 1977). Indeed, belief either likely or a fact. Surveys in systems provide a framework for the America and Iceland reported by organization and evaluation of new Schmeidler (1985) showed that 51 events and supply guidelines for what percent and 64 percent, respectively, to select and attend to out of the claimed to have had at least one diversity of experience. Findings that experience of ESP. A 1986 Gallup superstition (and paranormal belief in survey of American youths found that general) increases during times of 46 percent believed in ESP, 52 percent uncertainty provide evidence for this in astrology, and 19 percent in witch­ human need for reassurance and craft. A 1990 Gallup survey of Amer­ control. ican adults found that 49 percent Zimmer (1984), for example, lists believed in ESP, 49 percent in devil- a variety of superstitious behaviors possession, 36 percent in telepathy, engaged in by athletes preparing for and 25 percent in astrology (Gallup sporting events. Necessarily, this and Newport 1991). New Zealand behavior serves to suppress anxiety psychologists David Marks and and increase the faith in personal Richard Kammann (1980) surveyed success. Similar behavior may be their psychology students and observed in students prior to an reported that 80 percent believed that examination and in people employed mental telepathy was fact, more than in dangerous occupations, such as 50 percent believed in astral projec­ airline pilots. tion, and 33 percent believed in witchcraft. My own research at the Malinowski (1954) described the University of Queensland (Grimmer superstitious behavior of a tribe of and White 1990) revealed that 47 Trobiand Islanders (from Papua New percent of students considered the Guinea). He stated that fishing in their evidence strong or very strong for quiet lagoon was considered a routine ESP; 50 percent, for the Bermuda activity. However, fishing trips into Triangle; 34 percent, for UFOs; 36 the more dangerous open sea were percent, for astrology; and 19 percent, accompanied by elaborate supersti­ for astral projection. tious rituals. Similar origins of preg­ nancy superstitions among northern The present climate of paranormal Australian aborigines have been noted interest is without a doubt a phenom­ by Pearn and Sweet (1977). Kaagan enon of particular psychological and (1984) noted a proliferation of belief sociological importance. Indeed, Rus­ in astrology and pseudoscience in sell and Jones (1980) argue that the general accompanying the economic apparent persistence of such beliefs, and social chaos of Germany in the despite major advances in scientific 1930s. The authoritarian appeal of understanding and education, attests Hitler and the Nazis undoubtedly had to their function in satisfying some its roots in the need to escape from basic psychological needs. Although this chaos. there has been surprisingly little The illusory control of physical

174 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 events serves to alleviate feelings of ern and Central states) had the lowest helplessness and anxiety, and thus number of cult movements, paranor­ becomes self-validating (Snow and mal practitioners (including astrolog­ Machalek 1982). Certainly, holding an ers, alternative practitioners, and illusion of control may lead to psychics), and subscribers to Fate increased efforts on the part of the magazine (a prime medium of com­ believer, thus providing a greater munication for those interested in the frequency of reinforcement than occult). Conversely, those areas in would be achieved by sheer passive- which paranormal interest was high­ ness (Sosis, Strickland, and Haley est (the Pacific and Mountain states) 1980). To top it off, the failure of, for showed the lowest level of traditional example, a superstitious ritual to church attendance. In a further study, achieve "control" presents no neces­ Bainbridge and Stark (1980a) found sary challenge to the belief system. that people with no religious belief Festinger's (1957) cognitive disson­ were more likely than those with ance theory explains how well stronger convictions to believe in rationalization can work here. unconventional ideas (the paranor­ A second theme in the human need mal) and more likely to accept Dar­ to believe involves equating the win's theory. The authors concluded paranormal with its possibly unwilling that the decline in traditional religion, bedfellow, religion. A belief in the instead of instilling a new scientific paranormal may counteract what rationality, has made way for other might be called "existential anxiety": types of belief. This is a persuasive the prospect of nonexistence, which argument for the need to believe. all humans eventually face (Zusne and As well as the individual psycho­ Jones 1982). The paranormal excels in logical functions of belief, there exists its ability to provide antidotes to this to some degree a social function. anxiety. It holds out the promise of Depending on the extent of involve­ something beyond, something not yet ment, belief in the paranormal may experienced, something almost seen. serve to bind believers to one another And, in a way, a belief in the para­ (Frank 1977). Indeed, a shared belief normal transcends what is seen as the system is important in the main­ mundane reality of the physical world. tenance of a cohesive group. There are Evidence for this second function several reasons that people join of paranormal belief has come from groups, including to relieve boredom, the work of sociologists Bainbridge to expand their social activities, and and Stark (1980a; 1980b). These to gain prestige, security, and identity. researchers noticed the continuing Participation in a group also creates decline in adherence to traditional the opportunity to act on one's beliefs. religion and suggested it may no The extent to which the individual's longer be meeting the needs of the social needs are met will depend on population. They hypothesized that the nature of the group, but these the paranormal may have come to groups (ranging from UFO clubs to provide a substitute faith to fill the cult movements and churches) pro­ void. In examining this hypothesis, an vide the opportunity for satisfying at analysis was conducted of the major least some of these needs. belief centers in the United States Overall, it appears that a belief in (Bainbridge and Stark 1980b). It was the paranormal intrinsically results in found that the main areas of tradi­ the satisfaction of what are very basic, tional church attendance (the South­ but to an extent inconsistent, human

Winter 1992 175 needs: to seek control and stability Malinowski, B. 1954. Magic, Science and while hoping for mystery and excite­ Religion. New York: Doubleday. ment. For this reason the paranormal, Marks. D., and R. Kammann. 1980. The Psychology of the Psychic. Buffalo, N.Y.: although it may fade in and out, will Prometheus Books. probably remain with us forever— Pearn, J., and J. Sweet. 1977. Origins of perhaps a point worth considering for pregnancy superstitions relating to con­ those who would wish to convert the genital malformations. Oceania, 68(2): 146-153. public at large to empiricism. Russell, D., and W. H. Jones. 1980. When superstition fails: Reactions to the discon­ References tinuation of paranormal beliefs. Person­ ality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 6:83- Bainbridge, W. S., and R. Stark. 1980a. 88. Superstitions: Old and new. SKEPTICAL Schmeidler, G. S. 1985. Belief and disbelief INQUIRER , 4(4):18-31. in psi. Parapsychology Review, 16:1-4. . 1980b. Client and audience cults in Snow, D. A., and R. Machalek. 1982. On the America. Sociological Analysis, 41(3):199- presumed fragility of unconventional 214. beliefs. Journal for the Scientific Study of Evans, C. 1973. Parapsychology—What the Religion, 21:15-26. questionnaire revealed. New Scientist, Sosis, R. H., B. R. Strickland, and W. E. Haley. 57:209. 1980. Perceived locus of control and Frank, J. D. 1977. Nature and functions of beliefs about astrology, journal of Social belief systems: Humanism and transcen­ Psychology, 110:65-71. dental religion. American Psychologist, Truzzi, M. 1972. The occult revival as 32:555-559. popular culture: Some random observa­ Festinger, L. 1957. A Theory of Cognitive tions on the old and the nouveau witch. Dissonance. New York: Row, Peterson. Sociological Quarterly, 13:16-36. Gallup, G. H., Jr., and F. Newport. 1991. Zimmer, J. 1984. Courting the gods of sport. Belief in paranormal phenomena among Psychology Today, 18(2):36-39. adult Americans. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Zusne, L., and W. H. Jones. 1982. Anomalistic 15:137-146. Psychology. Hillsdale, N.J.: Erlbaum. Grimmer, M. R., and K. D. White. 1990. The structure of paranormal beliefs among Australian psychology students, journal Martin R. Grimmer is in the School of of Psychology, 124(4):357-370. Kaagan, L. 1984. Black cats, cracked mirrors Applied Behavioural Science, Griffith and the Dow Jones. Psychology Today, University, Nathan 4111, Brisbane, 18(2):8. Queensland, Australia.

On Clarity

"It is usually found that only stuffy little men object to what is called 'popularization/ by which they mean writing with a clarity understandable to one not familiar with the tricks and codes of the cult. We have not known a single great scientist who could not discourse freely and interestingly with a child. Can it be that the haters of clarity have nothing to say, have observed nothing, have no clear picture of even their own fields?"

John Steinbeck and Ed Ricketts, The Log from the Sea of Cortez (New York: Viking Press, 1951, p. 282)

176 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 Book Reviews

The Cognitive Basis of Irrationalism How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reasoning in Everyday Life, by Thomas Gilovich. Free Press (Macmillan), 866 Third Ave., New York, N.Y. 10022.1991. 216 pages. Cloth, $19.95.

H ROBERT KINNISON

As I was preparing my notes for data and our tendency to see regu­ L\ this review of How We Know larity and order where only the # \What Isn't So, by Thomas vagaries of chance are operating. Gilovich, the August issue of Reader's Chapter 3 deals with incomplete and Digest arrived in the mail. It contained unrepresentative data and our limited a three-page condensation of this ability to detect and correct for their book. The condensation was disap­ effects. Chapter 4 describes our pointing in content, containing only propensity to interpret ambiguous a review of a few of the examples used and inconsistent data in a way that in the book while ignoring the good supports our pet theories and a-priori discussion of the psychological basis expectations. People are overconfi­ of those examples. However, it is dent in their assessment of their own encouraging to note that the popular analytical skills and tend to construct press may be ready to concede that patterns where none actually exist. logic and evidence are not very impor­ Part 2 contains three chapters on tant in most of the social and political the "Motivational and Social Deter­ decision processes that control our minants of Questionable Beliefs." lives. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER readers will Chapter 5 locates the roots of errone­ find this book interesting and partic­ ous beliefs in self-serving distortions ularly useful as a reference because of reality. Chapter 6 examines the it contains chapters on extrasensory problems of using secondhand infor­ perception and alternative health mation and the distortions introduced practices, and major sections on how by communicators, especially the the press manipulates information in mass media. They are obliged to both order to sell their product. summarize and simplify, and must The first part of the book, "Cog­ entertain their audience or lose them. nitive Determinants of Questionable Chapter 7 examines a set of cognitive, Beliefs," contains three chapters that social, motivational processes that analyze our imperfect strategies for cause us to overestimate the extent dealing with the messy data of the to which others share our beliefs. real world. This part starts with Part 3 presents case studies illus­ Chapter 2, which discusses random trating the mechanisms described in

Winter 1992 177 parts 1 and 2. The cases include the ening and leveling," which I have not belief in the efficacy of alternative seen before. He shows how the press health-care practices, interpersonal can impute considerable order to a strategies, and extrasensory percep­ really confusing situation by "sharp­ tion. Part 4 ends the book with a ening" what the reporter considers discussion of how we can improve the the real point of the story and at the way we evaluate evidence from same time remove the confusion by everyday life. "leveling" or omitting all the quali­ Gilovich has provided an outstand­ fications that put the situation in ing introduction into the psychological perspective. Furthermore, as stories and sociological basis of human rea­ are told and retold they tend to soning. It is easy reading and doesn't become cleaner and simpler. Other use the professional terminology of aspects of how the media operate are psychology or sociology. It is also a discussed in sections covering hidden good single reference for concepts that data, data filtering, and an overcon- are important to workers in a wide fidence in the representativeness of variety of divergent scientific fields. data. This last item, representative­ This reviewer was first introduced to ness, is well known in the literature this field in the early seventies while as the "gambler's fallacy," which is the working for a contractor to the assumption that deviations from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. As expected in small samples have causes a statistician, one of my duties was other than randomness. to present results to decision-makers, The weakest part of the book is including local politicians. It was the final chapter, which propounds a painfully obvious that how you pres­ solution for overcoming the varieties ented results was more important of irrationalism described in the than what the results were. At that preceding chapters. All that is actually time, the Nuclear Regulatory Com­ offered is a plea for good science mission was funding substantial education for everyone and the research in the field of human rea­ assertion that one who understands soning in order to curb irrational fears the psychological processes involved of nuclear energy. SKEPTICAL can cope with the problems. This isn't INQUIRER readers are well aware of much help for people currently deal­ irrational reasoning associated with ing with irrational decision-making. such things as astrology, extrasen­ However, we cannot really criticize sory perception, flying saucers, fun­ the author for not having a magnif­ damentalist religions, and health fads. icent new idea that would eliminate Biologists, astronomers, and geolo­ the problem. No one has come up with gists are up against the irrational much of a solution and the advice reasoning of creationists. A'scholarly offered is the best that is currently look at political campaigns, particu­ available. larly local ones, will yield examples My main concern, important only of just about every irrational logic to the professional student of human process the book describes. cognition, is that the text doesn't The discussion of how the mass adequately review prior work in the media operate is particularly informa­ field, although the extensive refer­ tive. This discussion is spread ence list does lead to what has been throughout the book as examples and done. The reference list, and my files, amplifications of associated concepts. show that some significant work Gilovich uses the concept of "sharp­ started in the 1920s and again in the

178 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 1970s. Today, one can find articles ture, since it enables one to find or discussing this field in sociology and make a reason for every thing one has psychology journals. Much interesting a mind to do." evidence in the literature suggests that the issues confronted in this book are as old as society. For example, in Robert Kinnison is a principal statistician his autobiography, Benjamin Franklin for Reynolds Electrical & Engineering Co., discusses a time in his boyhood when Environment, Safety and Health Division. a vegetarian fad swept through the He has more than 25 years experience colonies. He summarizes the public in the fields of environmental data perception of the benefit of such a diet analysis, analysis of the success of with the statement: "So convenient a environmental restoration projects, and thing it is to be a reasonable crea­ statistical safety analysis.

Case Study in Pathological Science

Too Hot to Handle: The Race for Cold Fusion. By Frank Close. Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J. 376 pp. Cloth, $24.95.

TERENCE HINES

n March 23, 1989, chemists together nuclei is less than that of the Stanley Pons and Martin nuclei when separate. The "extra" OFleischmann (hereinafter P & mass is converted to energy, with the F) held a news conference at the amount of energy determined by University of Utah that was widely Einstein's famous equation, £ = mc2, covered on the national evening news where £ is energy, m mass, and c is programs that day. They announced the speed of light. Since c2 is a huge that they had discovered a method for number, even a very small mass, such producing nuclear fusion in a test tube as that of atomic nuclei, will result in at room temperature. The term cold the release of a great amount of fusion was immediately used to des­ energy. If this was all there was to cribe this phenomenon. In the two- it, fusion would be easy. However, in plus years since that news conference, order to get the nuclei close enough cold fusion has turned out to be the to actually fuse, their natural repulsive greatest case of pathological science force must be overcome. This takes yet seen in the twentieth century. tremendous amounts of energy. The Frank Close's book tells the story of conventional method of obtaining P & F's "discovery" and the subsequent fusion is to use heat on the order of events that destroyed, in the minds hundreds of millions of degrees to of all but a few, any belief that the speed the nuclei sufficiently so that claims for cold fusion were valid. the repulsive forces will be overcome. Nuclear fusion occurs when atomic Needless to say, this is both difficult nuclei are brought so close together and extremely expensive. Still, since that they stick. The mass of the stuck- fusion would be a relatively clean

Winter 1992 179 source of energy (it produces little of with an energy of 2,224 KeV (thou­ the radioactive waste that fission sand electron volts). P & F did measure does), it has been the target of a great gamma rays alleged to come from deal of research and money. Given the their fusion cells and reported, in the "clean" nature of fusion energy and popular media and at scientific talks the great expense of obtaining it in they gave, that they found gamma the conventional superheated fashion, rays at about 2,500 keV. This is a one can understand the attractiveness major discrepancy, but P & F were not of a claim that fusion could be obtained aware of it. In general, chemists didn't at room temperature using a very spot the problem, while physicists cheap procedure. looking at the data did. The initial Close, himself a nuclear physicist, reports of gamma rays at 2,500 keV is in an excellent position to tell the were made before P & F had published story of this episode, as he attended their findings. The serious problem many of the meetings at which the with finding energy at 2,500 instead cold-fusion results were discussed, of 2,224 keV was, of course, pointed and he interviewed almost all of the out to them. When they published major "players" in the events. There their first paper (Journal of Electroana- is a great deal more to the story of lylic Chemistry, 263:187-188, 1989) an cold fusion than those who got their amazing thing had happened. The information from the popular media results showed gamma rays at 2,224 would have suspected. Even the keV. Nor is there any indication in that scientific press, in such journals as paper that gamma rays at 2,500 keV Nature and Science, told only a fraction had been reported and, thus, no of the story. discussion of how 2,500 changed to 2,224. Other changes in the data took It is clear from the material in this place between the verbal and media book why P & F went wrong. Prob­ presentations and the published ver­ ably, the single major problem was sion. The reasons for these changes that with fusion they were working are still not clear, but it is very difficult in the area of nuclear physics. As to interpret the changes charitably. mentioned, P & F are chemists. Working outside one's area of special­ P & F apparently believed that they ization is always a danger; because, had made a totally new discovery. while one may be aware of the Unfortunately, they had not done a subtleties and "tricks of the trade" of literature review. Had they done so, experimentation and measurement in they would have discovered that in the one's own area, these are not known 1920s reports of experiments and in unfamiliar areas. The history of findings almost identical to theirs had parapsychology is, for example, lit­ been published and later debunked. tered with scientists respected in their One of the most interesting chapters own field embarrassing themselves by in Close's book reviews these early making major blunders when they cold-fusion claims and a number of assumed that they were also experts other examples of "fusion quackery" in other areas of experimentation. that I had not heard of before. It turned out that P & F were Included is a description of a Nazi fundamentally unfamiliar with how to aircraft designer who convinced measure the variables that would be Argentina dictator Juan Peron that he expected to yield evidence for actual had created a fusion reactor using a nuclear fusion. In a striking example, "huge spark-gap" (p. 36). Close's fusion should result in gamma rays explanation of the basic physics of

180 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 fusion is also excellent. to dismiss failures as being due to "not As might be expected, given that doing it right." Alas, P & F failed to the P & F experiment was performed be explicit about what "doing it right" with very simple equipment—equip­ consisted of. As time passed, it was ment available in any well-supplied established that the seemingly suc­ physics laboratory—and the great cessful replications were due to var­ scientific and financial interest in the ious sources of errors, some quite reported phenomenon, as soon as the subtle. When these were eliminated, news conference was reported no evidence for fusion was obtained. attempts were made to replicate the Close discusses many of these repli­ findings. Unfortunately, at the news cations and shows what went wrong conference P & F did not give many to mislead the researchers into think­ details about exactly how their equip­ ing that they had obtained fusion. ment was constructed. Nor were they The story of cold fusion is a forthcoming in response to questions fascinating and important one. It is an about their exact methodology in the object lesson in how highly competent subsequent weeks. Not a good sign! scientists can be badly misled. Unfor­ In spite of this, many groups tried to tunately, Close's book has two serious replicate their findings, some repeat­ flaws. It is very badly organized. The edly watching videotapes shot in P & chronological sequence seems to be F's lab, trying to glean tidbits of almost random. One is constantly information on how the equipment jumping back and forth through time. was arranged. A group of MIT under­ I found this extremely confusing. graduates who saw the March 23 There is also a great deal of needless report on television attempted to repetition. Identical points are made replicate the findings on that very time and time again. In general, the evening. They didn't find any evidence book did not get the strong editorial for fusion. hand it so badly needed. In spite of When numerous groups of these problems, Too Hot to Handle researchers attempt to replicate an should be read by anyone interested exciting new finding, even if that in pseudoscience and pathological finding is artifactual, some will "suc­ science or simply a first-rate scientific ceed" in the replication while some will detective story. In several chapters, correctly fail to replicate. The seeming the story is so inherently fascinating successes may be due to errors of that the excitement blazes through experimentation. However, in the the serious organization problems of heated atmosphere of the first few the text. weeks following P & F's news confer­ ence, it was the alleged successful Terence Hines is a professor of psychology replications that got the lion's share at Pace University, Pleasantville, New of attention, both from the popular York, and author of Pseudoscience and media and from P & F, who tended the Paranormal.

Winter 1992 181 Putting Psychics to the Test on TV

"James Randi: Psychic Investigator," TV series produced by Open Media for Granada TV (broadcast in the U.K. on ITV nationwide in six parts, Wednesday, July 17, to Monday, August 21,1991, at 9:00 P.M.).

James Randi: Psychic Investigator, the book. Boxtree, 36 Tavistock St., London WC2E 7PB, U.K. 159 pp. Paper, £6.99.

U WENDY M. GROSSMAN

ne of the more talked about audience, for the first time, that television series in the U.K. paranormal claims can be tested. And Othis past summer was the six- from casual conversations with ran­ part James Randi: Psychic Investigator, domly selected people (security and a pot pourri of a type that should be immigration officers at airports, familiar to readers of SI. Produced by journalists, people out shopping, an independent company, Open school kids), this important point Media, for Granada Television (one of appears to have been made success­ the major regional commercial com­ fully. panies that together make up ITV), Those outside Britain unfortunate the series was eagerly awaited by enough to miss the series can console skeptics. themselves with the book James Randi: Most of us were somewhat disap­ Psychic Investigator. This basically pointed, particularly in the quality of recounts the tests that were carried the editing—parts of the series rush out and their results, and has the along as jerkily as if they had been added advantage of not having to rush edited by a second-year film-school through either the tests or the back­ student. In addition, Randi is not at ground information. While a lot of the his best as a host. Compared to his surrounding material, on such topics lively, confrontational, sparkling as faith-healing and Lewis Carroll, will appearances on the Johnny Carson be familiar to longterm Randi fans, "Tonight" show, he seems stiff and, obviously the tests and other details some said, even a bit bored. will not. As a bonus, the book is Having said that, the series is an written in Randi's familiar, aggressive important breakthrough both for style. Randi and for British prime-time Topics covered include the New television. While most of the British Age, dowsing, astrology, psychome- talk-shows have at one time or try, faith-healing (including a rather another run mini-tests of celebrity grisly taping of a U.K. faith-healer), psychics, this is the first time such predictions, graphology, with miscel­ tests have ever been well constructed lanea in-between. The tests them­ or presented by an avowed skeptic. selves were fairly simple. The series doesn't actually prove Soozie Holbeche, for example, anything one way or the other, of whose claim to fame is using applied course—the necessary volume of tests kinesiology to prove that the crystal would put the audience to sleep—but she has selected is good for you, had it does bring home to a mass British to identify which of the five lumps,

182 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 each a velvet bag, was the crystal she ongoing project to study the use of had selected for a celebrity guest. psychics in police work, and to make She chose a lump of rat poison in­ clear how unregulated British alter­ stead. native medicine really is. In addition, James Garvey, who claims he can apparently some psychics commented see auras, was asked to use his special on their appearances on the program sight on five volunteers standing in Britain's Psychic News; the book behind five screens. As the volunteers places Randi's rebuttals firmly on the came out one at a time, Garvey had record. to say which screen each one had been The series received a great deal of behind. He got two out of five right. media coverage, including spin-off Graphologist Duncan Mcintosh articles—the Independent newspaper, was given handwriting samples from for example, sent its TV reporter, five women in five different profes­ accompanied by two mediums, to sions and was asked to say which watch one of the series and to record woman and her handwriting sample the mediums' comments; and Randi matched which profession. He got one was interviewed on a number of talk- out of five right—the same one that, shows that have hosted celebrity seeing the five women on television, psychics in the past. However, the I guessed right without the benefit of ultimate sign of the series' impact was the handwriting samples. probably the review that appeared in It is embarrassing to admit that the the satirical magazine Private Eye,, book will be a valuable reference for which said, memorably, "Randi may U.K. skeptics. It took Randi's coming not be paranormal, but he's not all that to Britain to unearth Scotland Yard's normal either."

James Randi with mediums (left to right) Coral Polge, Stephen O'Brien. Nella Jones, and Maureen Hynn, in the first of the "James Randi: Psychic Investigator" series. (Photo courtesy Granada TV.)

Winter 1992 183 One common theme among the from the publicity in any case, or that reviews was wonderment that the the researchers were triumphantly programs' researchers were able to get diplomatic and persuasive. The psychics to agree to appear on a answer is probably a mix of the three. program on which they were so likely to fail. We can only assume that the Wendy Grossman is a free-lance writer psychics thought they would succeed, and the founder and former editor of The that they thought they would benefit Skeptic magazine (U.K.)

Disturbing Chronicle of Three Faith-Healing Cases

Deadly Blessings: Faith Healing on Trial. By Richard J. Brenneman. Prometheus Books, Buffalo, N. Y., 1990. 390 pp. Cloth, $21.95.

DAVID LONERGAN

ichard Brenneman's fascinating and disturbing book Deadly R Blessings chronicles three very different cases in which faith healing resulted in suffering or death. The former Sacramento Bee reporter metic­ ulously documents three tragic inci­ dents that took place in California between 1976 and 1987. The first section of Deadly Blessings concerns the case of a 17-month-old child who died of bacterial meningitis while his Christian Scientist parents prayed, called in a healer, and wor­ ried—but never consulted a physician. Small children are particularly sus­ ceptible to disease; for example, bacterial meningitis (which usually Scientists can sometimes obtain de can be cured by a rapid application of facto permission to consult physicians antibiotics) rarely affects anyone over in cases of serious illness; a child's the age of five. The child's parents, discomfort cannot be felt by a parent who denied their son medical treat­ or guardian, however. ment rather than conflict with their In Brenneman's second and third own voluntarily assumed religious cases the victims actually sought out doctrine, were acquitted of criminal and paid for irresponsible and danger­ negligence charges. Ironically, accord­ ous treatments. A "psychic surgery" ing to Brenneman, adult Christian scam enriched a Filipino sleight-of-

184 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 hand artist who toured the United ways, they also have many factors in States under the auspices of a travel common. In each case there was an agency; expensive treatments "cured" abuse of authority and trust by cancer and many other diseases, parents, self-proclaimed spiritual simultaneously impoverishing the leaders, or licensed and once-respected victims and, through false hope, professionals. Additionally, in each delaying their eventual legitimate case there was an inability on the part medical treatment. The psychic sur­ of the criminal justice system to geon was sentenced to nine months meaningfully deal with these abusers in jail and a $400 fine. once they were identified. Brenneman's third case was that of Deadly Blessings is a remarkable a famous Southern California psy­ book, made even more so by the fact chologist, a former LSD-therapy that Brenneman is a former believer researcher, whose abuse of authority in Christian Science, New Age com- and cultlike control of her communal munalism, and psychic surgery. patients/disciples led to the death of Indeed, his path through these delu­ one of her followers in a bizzare sions and out into the light of reason "therapeutic" treatment. An investi­ would doubtless make another fine gation by California's Psychology book, but—this time—one with a Examining Board resulted in revoca­ happy ending. tion of the psychologist's license to practice, but no criminal charges have ever been filed. David Lonergan is with the University While the three cases documented Libraries, Northern Illinois University, in Deadly Blessings differ in many DeKalb.

What About the Coelacanth?

Living Fossil: The Story of Coelacanth. By Keith S. Thomson. W. W. Norton, New York, 1991. 252 pp. Cloth, $19.95.

PAUL T. RIDDELL

henever someone argues for Yes, what about the coelacanth? the existence of the Loch This poor fish, the sole known rem­ WNess monster, Bigfoot, the nant of the Crossopterigii, the family mkembe of Africa (allegedly a small of fishes that includes the ancestors sauropod dinosaur), the Lake Cham- of modern tetrapods, is truly a marvel, plain beast, or any other claim of but for different reasons. For un- cryptozoology, dissent is usually guessable amounts of time, Latimeria drowned out with a cry of: "Well, what chalumnae lived in mid-ocean depths about the coelacanth? It was thought off the Comoro Islands off the African to be extinct for 70 million years, but coast, only to be discovered in the it's still alive!" now-classic tale of one strange fish in

Winter 1992 185 a South African trawler net. Bigfoot, and so many other crypto- Because of the constant embellish­ beasties. Latimeria was first discovered ments and out-and-out fabrications as a fluke off South Africa, but when spread in popular media about the its native habitat revealed itself, it was coelacanth, Keith S. Thomson, one of easily captured. All phases of its life the first non-French scientists to cycle, from pregnant mother (the dissent and study Latimeria, delved coelacanths are ovoviviparous, mean­ into what was known about coela­ ing they keep their eggs inside their canth physiology, behavior, and ecol­ bodies, but do not produce a placenta ogy, and offers yet another bit of or other umbilicus from mother to ammunition against those who make offspring while in the womb) to cryptozoological claims without hatchling to full adult, have been knowing science. studied, and the main unknown now Contrary to the popular refrain of is how the population is reacting to the "unknown" coelacanth, Thomson the number of individuals caught for points out that the coelacanths were scientific purposes or for black-market well-known to the islanders on the purposes. Within 50 years, less than Comores, as they were easily caught the amount of time spent on the Loch on the same long lines used to catch Ness phenomenon, the coelacanth the local oilfish, but were considered went from cryptocreature to definite trash fish because they were unfit to existence, while the people at Loch eat. (Interestingly, the only good use Ness still have nothing to show but for them, as far as the islanders were questionable photographs. concerned, was to use the scales in True, the coelacanth was consi­ place of sandpaper when roughing up dered a hoax or a case of mistaken bicycle inner tubes prior to patching identity (some scientists of the time holes.) After the second specimen was tried to explain it away as being some caught and offered to Professor J. L. kind of mummy trapped in seabottom B. Smith, who scientifically described ooze, or as a deformed rock cod), but the first specimen, many others have within 20 years, enough information been dissected and studied, mostly by had been gleaned from subsequent French teams, (until recently, the captures to prove its reality. While Comores were a French colony that being skeptical requires being open to gave its scientists first crack at possible discoveries of this type, there research). Very recently, submersibles is a difference between being skeptical have shown the coelacanth in its and being gullible, and the crews that native habitat, and the whole life story continue the search for creatures for of Latimeria is presenting itself, and, whom no hard evidence has presented most important, its continuing survi­ itself (particularly for as long a time val in the wake of increased fishing. as the Loch Ness crews have been at The story of the coelacanth shows it) show signs of being the latter. why it is not the sort of creature that cryptozoologists want to use as a Paul T. Riddell is the Paleontology Desk model, since it merely illuminates the columnist for Science Fiction Eye inadequacies of the hunt for Nessie, magazine.

186 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 New Books ^ ^f^^-Wl

How Do You Know It's True? Hy $24.95 paper. Excellent collection of Ruchlis. Prometheus Books, Buffalo, articles examining the contemporary N.Y., 1991. 112 pp., $12.95, paper. anti-Satanism movement. From back­ Illustrated book by science educator grounds in sociology, anthropology, helps young readers (ages 11-15) folklore, and history, various authors discover the difference between view the social problem of Satanism science and superstition. Opens with as a social construction: Warnings chapters on "Fiction or Fact?", "The about covens, backmasking, ritual Nature of Superstition," "An Exper­ abuse, and so on, are treated as claims, iment with Superstition," and "Astrol­ not necessarily as objective reality. ogy: Science or Superstition?" Part 2 Such analyses examine who is making deals with science as a way of thinking, the claims, what they stand to gain, including how new facts are disco­ and what rhetoric they use. "Claims- vered; freedom of thought; probability making is a form of persuasion," the and unusual events; luck, and chance; editors emphasize. From these view­ and science as a source of real knowl­ points the sections deal with anthro­ edge and a solution to world problems. pological and historical perspectives, the claimed threats to children, psy­ In the Mind's Eye. Daniel Druckman chiatry and occult survivors, Satanism and Robert A. Bjork, eds. Committee and the law, and rumors and news on Techniques for the Enhancement about Satanism. of Human Performance, National Research Council, National Academy Teach Your Child Math. Arthur Press, Washington, D.C., 1991. 291 Benjamin and Michael Brant pp. $29.95 hardcover. The second Shermer. Lowell House, 1875 Cen­ report by this NRC committee of tury Park East, Suite 220, Los Angeles, behavioral scientists critically exam­ CA 90067, 1991. 177 pp., $10.95, ines, among other things, techniques paper. Mathematics professor (and that claim to improve performance by lightning calculator) Benjamin here altering mental states: subliminal self- teams up with psychologist Shermer, help audiotapes, meditation, pain- author of Teach Your Child Science, in management methods, and hiding and a book aimed at making math fun for detecting deception. Other sections both youngster and parent. They turn examine methods for training (the math into a game: problems become studies are done for the U.S. Army) math games, and the goals are to help and enhancing individual and team both parent and child understand the performance. benefits and fun of math, help stop the decline in math and science The Satanism Scare. James T. education, and stimulate creative Richardson, Joel Best, and David G. thinking and show the "magic in Bromley, eds. Aldine de Gruyter, New math." York, 1991. 320 pp. $44.95 cloth; —Kendrick Frazier

Winter 1992 187 Articles Of Note

Bartholomew, Robert E., Keith Bas- 66. Bromley puts the current Satan­ terfield, and George S. Howard. "UFO ism flap in the context of American Abductees and : Psycho- "countersubversion ideologies," pathology or Fantasy Proneness?" which have previously focused on Professional Psychology: Research and witches, communists, etc. He de­ Practice, 22(3): 215-222, 1991. Study scribes the characteristic claims and of sample of 152 UFO contactees and the reactions, including the "demon- abductees finds that 132 have char­ ization of daycare." acteristics of the fantasy-prone person­ ality (FPP). Although they appear to Chandler, Russell. "Bad Vibes Rock function as normal, healthy adults, the New Age Mecca." Los Angeles Times, authors say, FPPs experience rich August 4,1991, p. Iff. Modern mystics fantasy lives and score dramatically seeking psychic energy in Sedona, higher than control groups on such Arizona, are clashing with conserva­ characteristics as hypnotic susceptibil­ tive churches, American Indians, and ity, religious visions, and apparitional the U.S. Forest Service. experiences. They suggest clinicians consider testing contactees and abduc­ Disend, Michael. "The New Age tees for fantasy proneness. Exorcist." Details, September 1991, pp. 28ff. Feature about professional Blackmore, Susan. "Is Meditation deprogrammer Joe Szimhart, of Santa Good for You?" New Scientist, July 6, Fe, New Mexico, who is fighting, one 1991, pp. 30-33. Explores the validity case at a time, the growing world of of certain claims about meditation and cults across America. also (the more important question scientifically) whether meditation has Gardner, Dore. "A Mexican Healer." any effects. Bostonia, July-August 1991, pp. 35-39. A photo essay about Nino Fidencio, Branyan, Helen B. "Medical Charla­ a Mexican faith-healer, dead fifty tanism: The Goat Gland Wizard of years, but still invoked by other Milford, Kansas." Journal of Popular Mexican healers. The photos are Culture, Summer 1991. In the 1920s, accompanied by more than a dozen John R. Brinkley made a good living quoted excerpts from patients/ in Kansas by inserting goat glands into healers/investigators. patients to allegedly restore sexual vigor. He advertised on his own radio Gardner, Martin. "How to Fabricate station. The battle to close him down a PPO." Journal of the Society for involved the state medical board, the Psychical Research (U.K.), 58:43-44, Kansas attorney general, and the 1991. The brief report Gardner de­ FCC. scribed in his Fall 1991 SI column on how a so-called permanent paranor­ Bromley, David G. 'The Satanic Cult mal object can easily be made by Scare." Society, May/June 1991, pp. 55- normal means.

188 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 Gilovich, Thomas D. "The Hot Hand' tical, and economic damage is perpe­ and Other Illusions of Everyday Life." trated upon the credulous." Wilson Quarterly, Spring 1991, pp. 52- 59. We all hold beliefs that are intui­ Mathew, V. M., et al. "Attempted tively logical but objectively false. Suicide and the Lunar Cycle." Psycho­ These tend to be based on misunder­ logical Reports, 68:927-930, 1991. standings of probability, the regres­ Analysis of 383 cases of attempted sion fallacy, and bias. Gilovich's suicide during 12 complete lunar examples include basketball "streaks," cycles (one year) gave no support for full-moon births, and pregnancies an association with lunar cycle, espe­ after adoptions. cially the full moon.

Goff, Donald C, et al. "The Delusion "Mysteries." New Yorker (Talk of the of Possession in Chronically Psy­ Town section), May 20, 1991, pp. 30- chotic Patients." Journal of Nervous and 31. A light report on a speech by UFO Mental Disease, September 1991, pp. believer Philip J. Imbrogno. His lecture 567-571. Psychotic patients who claim included "fuzzy slides" of UFOs and to have been possessed tend to have tales of abductions. higher rates of cannabis abuse, child­ hood sexual abuse, and dissociation Nathan, Debbie. "The Devil Makes than other psychotics, suggesting that Them Do It." In These Times, July 24- the delusion may relate to childhood August 6, 1991, pp. 12-13. An over­ trauma, among other things. view of claims of Satanism and police reactions. Hou Ruili. "The Golden Age of Traditional Chinese Medicine." China Nickell, Joe. "Les Preuves Scienti- Today, March 1991, pp. 32-34. A fiques que le Linceul de Turin date popular overview of TCM with sta­ dur Moyen Age." Science et Vie tistics on hospitals, herbal medicine, (France), July 1991, pp. 6-17. Response and acupuncture. to critics of the carbon-14 tests show­ ing the Shroud of Turin is of Medieval Peter W. Huber. "Quack Attack." Age. Reason, October 1991, pp. 25-31. Critical examination of the modern O'Connor, Brian P., and Karen Molly. "clinical ecology" movement, which "A Test of the Intellectual Cycle of maintains that the human body is the Popular Biorhythm Theory." under almost constant chemical Journal of Psychology 125(3), 291-299. assault, the chemicals causing almost Test of the existence of the intellectual every human affliction. From Huber's cycle of the popular version of bio­ new book Galileo's Revenge: funk rhythm theory. Subjects' performance Science in the Courtroom. on reaction time, free recall, cued recall, and spatial visualization tasks Markovsky, Barry. "Quack. Quack. failed to provide evidence for the intel­ Quack." Iowa City Magazine, August- lectual biorhythm. September 1991. Essay by University of Iowa sociologist about the harm Passantino, Gretchen, et al. "Satan's abandoning critical thinking can cause. Sideshow." Cornerstone, 18 (90): 23-28, "From holy wars and faith healers to 1991. An unexpected find in a Chris­ quack therapies and presidential tian magazine for college students: a astrologers, physical, emotional, poli­ thorough investigation of Lauren

Winter 1992 189 Stratford, whose book Satan's Under­ Sidey, Ken. "Doctors Dispute Best- ground claims to tell of a lifetime of selling Author's Back-to-Life Story." ritual abuse. The authors conclude Christianity Today. July 22, 1991, pp. that the book appears to be the fiction 40-43. Betty Malz has written six of a trouble mind. books concerning a near-death out- of-body experience she had in 1959. Rennie, John. "Psychic vs. Skeptic." Now a Christian magazine has inter­ Scientific American (Science and Citi­ viewed the doctors involved and zen section), September 1991, pp. 39- examined the hospital records, which 40. Good report on the lawsuits by indicate Malz was never near death Uri Geller against James Randi and at all. CSICOP. Skrabanek, Petr. "Demarcation of the Sagan, Carl, and Ann Druyan. "Real Absurd." Bostonia, July-August 1991, Patriots Ask Questions." Parade, pp. 31-34. Skrabanek takes scientists September 8, 1991, pp. 12-15. Article and physicians to task for being on the connection between the insufficiently rigid in rejecting the methods of science and the Bill of paranormal and the miraculous. Rights. "If we can't think for our­ Because medicine relies heavily on the selves, if we're unwilling to question patient's faith in doctors, medicines, authority, then we are just putty in etc., and because many physicians are the hands of those in power." reluctant to admit ignorance, medicine has not given faith-healing the scorn Schlesinger, George N. "The Credi­ Skrabanek feels it deserves. bility of Extraordinary Events." Analysis, June 1991, pp. 120-126. Tobacyk, Jerome, J. "Superstition and When a reliable witness reports a Beliefs About the Prediction of Future highly unlikely event, should we Events." Psychological Reports, 68:511- believe it? The article deals with highly 512, 1991. Study of 235 university technical questions of probability. students supports hypothesis that greater belief in superstition is signif­ Shermer, Michael Brant. "Science icantly associated with greater belief Defended, Science Defined: The in "paranormal divinatory proce­ Louisiana Creationism Case." Science, dures" and in "psychically gifted per­ Technology, & Human Values, Winter sons." 1991, pp. 517-539. Describes origin and significance of the amicus curiae Watters, Ethan. "The Devil in Mr. brief to the U.S. Supreme Court by Ingrain." Mother Jones, July/August 72 Nobel laureates, 17 state acad­ 1991, pp. 30ff. Examination of the emies of science, and seven other bizarre case of Paul Ingram of Olym- scientific organizations in August pia, Washington, who confessed to 1986 in response to the Louisiana child abuse of his daughter and creationism "balanced treatment" participation in a satanic child-abuse act. "The Louisiana trial in general and ring but who now believes that his the amicus curiae brief in particular confession was based not on memories have historical significance for the but on flimsy fantasies suggested to history of science, being unique in the him by the investigator and his pastor. collective mobilization of scientists Considers why charges of satanic cults both in defense of and defining seem so frequently to follow charges science." of child abuse. Notes that experts

190 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 familiar with such cases say that blind review of the cold-fusion controversy, acceptance of the phrase "Believe the this one emphasizing the use and children" has been partly responsible misuse of different avenues of infor­ for the charges of Satanism. "Children mation: press, refereed journals, learn very quickly in interviews what conferences, etc. the interviewer wants to hear," Berkeley psychiatrist Lee Coleman Westmore, Ann. "Acupuncture Reg­ says. istration Evaded." Search, July/ August 1991, p. 164. The Australian Weisburd, Stefi. "What's Beyond federal and state governments are Belief Los Angeles Times, August 12, reluctantly debating which agency 1991, p. B3. Feature about the should be licensing acupuncturists. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. "Magazine puts They fear that licensing would legi­ startling claims, tabloid hype under timize the claims of practioners, but close scrutiny." the current laissez-faire system is unsafe. Welborn, Victoria. "The Cold Fusion Story." Science and Technology Librar­ —Kendrick Frazier ian, Spring 1991, pp. 51-60. Another and Robert Lopresti

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Winter 1992 191 Follow-Up •^mF^sBmimiBwsm 'Three Door' Problem Provokes Letters, Controversy U KENDRICK FRAZIER

t was quite a time! Our Summer Eighteen percent maintained, despite 1991 News and Comment article all the explanations given, that she I "Nation's Mathematicians Guilty of was still wrong; that the odds were 'Innumeracy,'" by Gary P. Posner, equal whether you switched or not. about Marilyn vos Savant's Parade (Several of these readers were quite magazine columns on the "three-door adamant; some said they thought the problem," has stimulated far more article was a hoax. Thankfully, few letters to the editor than anything else were as arrogant as the Chicago we have ever published. attorney who wrote: "The contestant The letters began arriving only a has no advantage in switching. . . . few days after the issue reached Marilyn vos Savant should stick to subscribers, and they didn't begin to intelligence qua Pop Culture and leave let up for many weeks. Even now, the more serious matters of game- months later, new letters come in. show probabilities to those who paid Typically an article of special interest attention in high school algebra.) Four might provoke five or six letters; by readers who first maintained emphat­ the time we did the analysis below, ically that vos Savant's solution was we had received more than a hundred wrong wrote again later asking that letters and the total continues to we disregard their previous letters; climb. Few were brief; almost all after further thought or discussions offered detailed explanations of the with friends they now understood the readers' views and reasoning. Some problem and realized she was correct. offered charts and tables and results "Please trash that letter," said one. "I from computer programs or tests. have finally figured out what you and Because we can publish excerpts of she are talking about, and I'd rather only a small fraction of these letters, not look ... a fool. . . ." Many readers we took up the offer of puzzle-fan expressed irritation that vos Savant's John Geohegan to help us analyze and statement of the problem didn't make categorize them. Thirty-seven percent explicit two necessary assumptions of the readers agreed that vos Savant's (that the host always offers the option solution, "You should switch," was to switch and that the host always correct; 45 percent (most of whom opens a door with a goat behind it). agreed she was essentially correct, But almost everyone seemed to enjoy "but. ..") had valid criticisms that her the mental challenge the problem statement of the problem omitted two posed. One of my favorite letters gave essential assumptions and that this two pages of discussion and then made a certain answer impossible. ended, "I really enjoyed this problem!"

192 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 Since our article appeared, several Even though we can't publish most more things have happened. Vos of the letters, they will all be useful. Savant has published a fourth Parade Ray Hyman, professor of psychology, magazine column on the subject (July University of Oregon, and a longtime 7,1991) giving results of her "national member of the SI editorial board, has test" with letters from schools who for many years used this kind of responded to her suggestion to test problem as a teaching tool in his the solution (and revealing indeed a psychology classes. At his request, we two-thirds chance of winning if you have shared the letters with him. He switch). And the New York Times intends to use them to "tease out the published a 2,000-word front-page psychological reasons why people article ("Behind Monty Hall's Doors: have difficulty with this kind of Puzzle, Debate and Answer?" July 21, problem." 1991) that explored the problem and Here we present John Geohegan's the controversy about it at some brief comments, followed by excerpts length, with comments from game- from representative letters (especially show host Monty Hall, puzzle expert those that seem to offer useful expla­ Martin Gardner, and statistician/ nations), and then a final comment by probability expert Persi Diaconis. This Marilyn vos Savant. Also note that as report. New York Times science repor­ a result of all this interest, Martin ter John Tierney told me while report­ Gardner has devoted his column in ing it, was stimulated by the Summer this issue to "Probability Paradoxes." SKEPTICAL INQUIRER article.

SI Readers Show Their Stuff JOHN GEOHEGAN

n responding to Gary Posner's probability theory, it is necessary to comments about innumeracy in the state that the host is required to open I Summer issue, SKEPTICAL INQUIRER a second door and give the player a readers have demonstrated their chance to change his choice no matter competency. We analyzed the first one what the first choice is. Without this hundred letters. True, 18 readers stipulation the player might reason­ disagree with Marilyn vos Savant's ably conclude that the host only answer, but 37 readers agreed, and an offered this choice when the correct additional 45 wrote to explain that the door had been chosen already, since statement of the problem is ambigu­ a change would then save the sponsor ous at best. Thus, on a notoriously money. In these circumstances a confusing problem, 82 have presented change never wins, whereas no "right" answers, and 18 "wrong." change has 1:3 odds." One of those who criticized the Of the 37 who solved the problem problem's ambiguity was Robert as Marilyn intended, one of the most Meservey of Lexington, Massachu­ forceful arguments comes from setts: "To obtain Marilyn's result by Michael Mauser of Fairbanks, Alaska,

Winter 1992 193 who writes: "Suppose the game-show Book of Mathematical Puzzles and lets you choose any one or any two Diversions, published in 1961, Martin doors, would you choose one door or Gardner describes a slightly dif­ two doors? This is actually what ferent version of this problem as happens in the original problem "wonderfully confusing" and "dif­ statement. You just have to choose the ficult to state unambiguously." True, door you believe is least likely to have true. the prize, then switch your choice after given this option." John Geohegan is chairman of New In The Second Scientific American Mexicans for Science and Reason.

The Problem

Here is the problem as originally published last year in Marilyn vos Savant's Parade column. We have inserted in brackets two phrases that might have clarified its implicit assumptions.

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given a choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door—say. No. 1—and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door—say, No. 3—which has a goat. [In all games, he opens a door to reveal a goat.] He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" [In all games he always offers an option to switch.] Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

U Readers' Comments

I admit that when I first read Marilyn switch. By opening a door that he vos Savant's answer to the game- knows does not hide a car, the host show question, I was convinced that only confirms that not all doors hide she was wrong. At least I had some cars. This was already assumed and very impressive company. The prob­ has no bearing on whether set C or lem is really quite simple. When you set U is more likely to contain the door choose your door, you divide the set hiding the car. Thanks for a fascinat­ of doors into two subsets: set C ing problem. (chosen—containing 1 door) and set U (unchosen—containing 2 doors). Patrick Harren Since the likelihood of the car being Houston, Tex. behind each door is equal, then it is twice as likely that set U contains the door hiding the car. If you were asked I was thoroughly entertained by the at this point whether you wished to flap. Vos Savant correctly answered stay with your choice of set C or that your chances of winning double switch to set U, clearly you should if you switch, but why this is true is

194 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 far from intuitive, as the number of mathematicians quoted in the outraged letters attest to. I have come Summer issue, resistant to the coun­ up with what I think is the easiest way terintuitive logic of the correct answer to convince the skeptical. (which is that switching is more likely As vos Savant does, let us consider to win the car than not switching). a hundred doors just to make the point I came up with the following account with more emphasis. The puzzle then of why the "obvious" answer to the involves the contestant selecting a problem is wrong: door, Monty revealing what is behind No matter which door the contest­ 98 of the remaining 99 doors, and the ant picks, the chances of having contestant being invited to switch. chosen correctly is 1 out of 3 (33 Now let's change the rules ever so percent), while the chances that the slightly. Consider what would happen car is behind one of the unchosen if, after you select your door, Monty doors is 2 out of 3 (67 percent). Thus invites you to stick with it, or to take the chances of winning the car would what is behind all the other doors immediately improve if the contestant combined. Clearly, you would switch, could switch from the lower proba­ as your first pick gives one chance in bility category (the chosen door) to the 100 of winning whereas taking all higher probability category (the other doors now gives you 99 chances unchosen doors). Since there are two in 100. Surprisingly, this game is doors in the higher probability cate­ completely equivalent to the original. gory, however, it is not clear which of them to pick until the host reveals Robert P. J. Day which of them is a loser. The contest­ Calgary, Alberta ant now knows which one to choose Canada in order to increase the chances from 33 percent to 67 percent.

You and Marilyn vos Savant are Douglas A. Bernstein wrong. The set of facts upon which Professor and Associate Head the question is based do not require the Department of Psychology game show host to offer the contest­ University of Illinois ant a second choice. The host seems Champaign, 111. free to offer the choice or not, at his option. Since he has prior knowledge of the winning door, random chance The News and Comment note about is no longer involved. Calculating the supposed innumeracy among mathe­ odds is not only irrelevant but maticians was quite misleading, as no impossible. real mathematical disagreement was involved. Most mathematicians, I Paul Kelly think, would now agree that the Boulder, Colo. original statement of the problem did not contain enough information for a solution. The published solution A colleague raised the "three-door" assumed that the host in the game problem during the "Promoting Crit­ show would always open a losing door, ical Thinking" discussion in a work­ but that was not actually stated in the shop I offered on teaching psychology. problem. If you make a different Most of the audience (and, truth to assumption about the underlying tell, I myself) were, like many of the situation, you get a different answer.

Winter 1992 195 A computer program incorporating the game show host gives away one assumption about the rules would information, but assuming without rightly be rejected by those making basis that he is obliged to offer the a different assumption. contestant the option to switch in every case; yields the contention that William C. Waterhouse the contestant should take the offer Department of Mathematics to switch. Pennsylvania State University 4. Understanding all of the above, University Park, Pa. realizing that the game-show host has every reason to refrain from offering the contestant the option to switch Wait a minute. Where does the prob­ except when the contestant has lem say that the host opens door No. chosen the car on the first try; yields 3 because it does not have the prize? the contention that the contestant Well, it doesn't. For all we know, the should refuse the offer to switch. host might have opened door No. 3 first simply because he always opens Tim Stryker door No. 3 first, prize or no prize. The Fort Lauderdale, Fla. way the problem is written, there is no reason to assume any connection between the door that the host opens I am afraid the only ones guilty of and his knowledge of what's behind "innumeracy" are you, your magazine, it. vos Savant, Posner, reader Lenna I found myself troubled by the Mahoney, and the rest of vos Savant's excerpts I read. Troubled because so supporters on this issue, not the many highly intelligent people were "nation's mathematicians." Posner reduced to trading snide, sardonic should stick to medicine and leave little remarks and wielding computer mathematics to those trained in it. programs and probability grids, all for Mahoney had better check her sim­ a simple little puzzle that just wasn't ulations and make sure that her worded very well. Didn't anybody try atmospheric science background to read it both ways? didn't "cloud" her programming logic. The switch strategy does not lead Albert Klumpp to any advantage whatsoever despite Arlington Heights, 111. vos Savant's mumbo-jumbo of an explanation.

There are, I think, four levels of W. Allen Cochrane understanding of this brainteaser: Smyrna, Ga. 1. No knowledge of the laws of probability; yields simple bewilder­ ment. I suspect this item was intended for 2. Knowledge of the laws of prob­ your April Fool edition.... In the end ability, but not taking into account there are only two doors, and only one that the game-show host gives away of them leads to the car. At that time, information by opening the second the odds are 1:2 regardless of how that door; yields the irate contention that situation evolved. it is 50/50 either way. Suppose you flip a coin 999 times, 3. Knowledge of the laws of prob­ and it comes up heads every time. On ability, and taking into account that the 1,000th flip, the odds of getting

196 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 another head are still 1:2. If you want hits if the player switched and 5,000 to determine the odds of getting 1,000 if he or she didn't. When I ran the consecutive heads, then you may program, the results: 6,679 wins on properly consider the preceding 999 switching, 3,321 on standing pat! I was flips. stunned. Had I made a programming error, however unlikely that might Jimmie R. Osburn be? No, the code was fine. So why Savannah, Tenn. was there a 2/3 likelihood of success upon switching? Upon further anal­ ysis, I determined that the code and The point overlooked by all those the 2/3 probability were both correct. critics of Marilyn vos Savant is that However, my explanation is different the host of the show knows where from the ones that appeared in the the car is. By opening a door he knows SKEPTICAL INQUIRER (which I still do will render a goat, the host imparts not find compelling). some of his knowledge to you, the Rather than being a problem in contestant. If the host doesn't know probability (a red herring), it is a which door the car is behind and just problem in Boolean logic. Succinctly happens to open a door with a goat, put, a switching strategy on the the decision whether to switch is 50- second guess negates the outcome of 50. the first guess. Since the odds of making a wrong choice on the first Donald Keith guess are 2/3, you have a 2/3 prob­ Waterloo, Ontario ability of winning with this strategy. Canada Joseph G. Dlhopolsky Port Jefferson Station, N.Y. It is entirely possible that the various mathematicians who erred on this problem had forgotten that the host There are a number of lessons to be was not choosing the door or doors learned from the confusion generated at random. A devilish little problem by the "brainteaser." One is that for the unwary! apparently simple problems in prob­ ability can be confusing, even to well- Christopher D. Allan trained mathematicians. Anyone Alsager, Stoke-on-Trent familiar with the history of probability England theory can produce examples of eminent mathematicians, especially prior to 1660, who produced wrong Boy! You guys really had me going. answers to "elementary" problems in First of all, I did not accept your probability theory. A second lesson is explanation of why it is to a player's that it is usually a good idea when advantage to switch his or her choice defending one's own solution to these after being shown a door that did not kinds of problems to avoid high levels have the prize behind it. I was con­ of self-confidence. A third and final vinced the odds were 1/2. lesson is that, as with any discipline, With calm assurance, I wrote a it is wise to consult the relevant short computer program to simulate literature before attempting to re­ the problem. I was certain that in invent the wheel. Steve Selvin pro­ 10,000 trials, I would see about 5,000 vides a brief discussion of the brain-

Winter 1992 197 Marilyn vos Savant Comments

I'm glad you're enjoying the game- for whether the host offers the show controversy. switch each time, I don't see that Your readers may be interested as a valid objection. It wasn't to know that virtually all of my offered as a factor, so the original critics understood the intended is the paradigm. The contestant scenario! I personally read nearly chooses a door each time; the host 3,000 letters [to Parade] (out of the opens a door each time. (The many additional thousands that contestant doesn't choose a door arrived) and found nearly every one and open it next time; the host insisting simply that because two doesn't open the contestant's door options remained (or an equivalent next time; the host doesn't offer the error), the chances were even. Very contestant money next time.) few raised questions about ambi­ Just because a similar game guity, and the letters actually show appeared on television published in the column were not doesn't warrant the assumption among them. that the published problem But for those readers now inter­ involves considerations as subjec­ ested more in the analysis of tive as creating audience excite­ ambiguity, let me offer the follow­ ment or saving the sponsor money! ing notes. When I read the original But as the response from your question as it was sent by my readers shows, it's all been great reader, I felt it didn't emphasize fun, and we've certainly learned a enough that the host always opens lot. a door with a goat behind it, so I Marilyn vos Savant added that to the answer to make Parade Publications, Inc. sure everyone understood. And as New York, N.Y. teaser (also known as the Monty Hall Assume the car is behind B. If you problem) in the Letters to the Editor pick A, then C must be opened, and section of the American Statistician, if you switch to B, you win. If you February and August 1975. pick C, then A must be opened, and if you switch to B you win. If you pick Robert S. Lockhart B, then either A or C must be opened, Toronto, Ontario and if you switch to either one, you Canada lose. Thus, no matter behind what door the car is, if you switch your chance I do not understand why it should take to win is always 2/3. eminent mathematicians from MIT, However, as vos Savant correctly and computer programs, to verify deduces, once the switching possibility Marilyn vos Savant's answer. A simple is removed, the chance to win the car explanation, like the following one, is 1:2. should be sufficient to clarify the matter: Bernhard H. Schopper You have three doors A, B, and C. Alexandria, Va.

198 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 If I were playing vos Savant's game article. ("It wasn't until I started I would switch every time. That way writing a computer program. . . .") If I would lose each time I chose the car I am the contestant and my strategy initially (one time in three tries). I is always to stick with my initial would win each time I chose a goat choice, then the probability that I win initially (twice in three tries). is 1/3. If my strategy is always to And I wouldn't give a damn for switch, then the probability that I lose mathematics or probabilities. is 1/3, since I lose only if the car is behind the door I first choose. As I Blake Matthews either win or lose every time I play, Winston-Salem, N.C. the probability that I win using the switching strategy is 2/3.

I was amused by the elaborate James G. Simmonds attempts to explain the best strategy Department of Applied to use in the game-show contest Mathematics popularized in Marilyn vos Savant's University of Virginia Parade column and discussed in your Charlottesville, Va.

OUT THERERob Pudim

HU90 HOGMIRE-P6CIDE S NO. 0&CAUSEOPALL THE. STUPID MISTAKES AND BO-TIME 932BA/-Uf5HE'S MADE IN THIS ONE.

Winter 1992 199 A Response to Martin Gardner FORREST M. MIMS III

hortly before I went on a cruise sighed. "I didn't realize eclipse chasers to measure the ozonesphere spend all their time attending lectures Sduring last summer's solar and watching stars." eclipse, I read the articles by Robert The professor then said he regret­ Felt and Martin Gardner in the ted what had happened to me at Summer 1991 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Scientific American; I was only slightly about the withdrawal of my assign­ surprised by this, for several other ment as a columnist for Scientific passengers had expressed similar American. sentiments. But I was embarrassed Felt based his report on personal when he asked me if I had read interviews and a review of the cor­ Gardner's piece in the SKEPTICAL respondence. His piece is reasonably INQUIRER. objective and among the few that "I hope you were able to separate reports that editors at Scientific Amer­ the fact from the fiction!" I blurted ican asked me questions about abor­ out. tion and my Christian faith in addition "What do you mean?" he asked. to Jonathan Piel's single question "Well," I responded, "he said I live about Darwinian evolution. in a village, which isn't even true, and Gardner's piece has many errors, then he attempted to portray me as and after two days at sea I looked for the village idiot. He didn't even get a quiet place to compose a response. my age right!" As usual, the ship's casino was vir­ The professor suggested that I cool tually empty, it's sole occupant being down and then asked me to be more a plump old gentleman wearing a red specific. bow tie seated before an expensive 386 "Gardner claimed I said Eve had no laptop perched on a gaming table. hair since she was the product of "Are you here to gamble?" he instant creation," I responded. "That's asked. fiction; I said nothing of the kind!" "No," I explained, "just looking for The portly professor chuckled and a quiet place to work." said, "Well, I don't have any hair, and "That's too bad," he sighed as he I'm certainly not the product of instant introduced himself. He was Register creation! Martin writes both fact and X. Array, the famous professor of fiction; apparently he did a little of skeptical statistics. An outspoken both in your case." opponent of gambling, Professor "To say the least," I agreed. "Since Array was on the cruise to study the he advised me to take a geology ultimate gamblers: eclipse chasers. He course, I should advise him to take a regaled me with tales of eclipse chasers course in ethical journalism!" who had seen only a single eclipse out Array then asked if I told Gardner of a dozen attempts, and he had fully that Adam and Eve had no navels. I expected the casino would be jammed told him yes, but in the context of the during the entire cruise. old riddle about the only difference "I wasn't sufficiently skeptical," he between Adam and Eve and everyone

200 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 else. The professor rolled his eyes and each time you see his name. Your mumbled something about Gardner closet-creationist friend, R. X. taking navels very seriously. He then Array. asked if I discussed science with Gardner during our two-hour It was time for a break, so I found conversation. a librarian who led me to the bound "Repeatedly," I answered. "But copies of Scientific American. each time I mentioned fossils, ozone, "This is what you're looking for," biology, or any science topic, he she said, handing me volume 235 recoiled and said, 'Don't talk about before vanishing down an isle. I placed science!'" the book on a table, and it fell open at Martin Gardner's "Mathematical "That's definitely Martin," sighed Games" column on page 132 of issue the professor. number 5. The column included an "There's more," I added. "Gardner account of a sensuous dance by the said, 'Science is almost a religion.' famous Dr. Matrix's Eurasian daugh­ When I asked to whom I should send ter, Iva, wearing only a pentagonal tithes at Scientific American, he mirror in her navel. Professor Array ordered, 'Don't quote me on that!' " was right about Gardner and navels. The professor smiled and asked to see my palmtop computer. "Mind if Finally I arrived at the point where I type you a note?" he asked. Before Iva gave Gardner his secret mantra: I could answer, he began poking at the Ohwa-taboo-biam. In the column, keys with two stubby fingers. Half a Gardner figured out its meaning after minute later he said, "Promise you a couple of cocktails. The only trip I won't read this until the cruise is over. needed was the one down in the Now how about showing me the elevator. By the time it reached the instruments you brought along?" third floor, I was laughing so hard that the librarian, who was on the elevator, Thanks to Professor Array and a politely held a finger to her lips. As spectacular eclipse, I forgot about she exited at the second floor, she Gardner's column and enjoyed the turned and whispered, "It's impossible remainder of the cruise. A few weeks to take Martin Gardner seriously after later, I was in a library working on you learn his secret mantra!" a paper about the eclipse when I noticed the professor's file in the Stunned, I tried to read her pen­ directory of my computer. I punched tagonal nametag, but it was so shiny in PROARRAY.RX, and this message it dazzled my eyes. Just before the flashed on the screen: doors closed, she giggled and handed me a folded card which read: Wewhula- flastl-afbest. Indeed! As I left the For relief from an attack of the Martin Gardner bug, take Scientific library, her message cycled through American, call 235/5/132, and find my mind: Wewhula-flastl-afbest . . . Martin's secret mantra. Henceforth Wewhula-flastl-afbest . . . Wewhula- your only symptom will be a chuckle flastl-afbest

Winter 1992 201 D Martin Gardner Replies

am pleased to see Mims confirming was, "He [Mims] was not sure the fact that he told me Adam and whether Eve had hair." After Mims Eve had no navels. It makes sense told me Eve had no navel, I asked if because he has since asured me that she had hair. Mims did not answer. Adam was created from the dust of I asked this because hair, like finger­ the earth, as described in Genesis, and nails and many other parts of the that Eve was fashioned from Adam's human body, bears evidence (like tree rib. rings) of past events. If Eve was I apologize for two terrible errors: created all at once, many parts of I called Seguin, Texas, a village when her body, aside from a navel, would apparently it is a town, and I gave record past events that never hap­ Mims's age as 47 when, he tells me, pened. it was 46 at the time. The Washington Mims may consider all this a joke Post (November 1,1990), in its account at which he laughs last. To me, even of the Mims fracas, gave his age as funnier is the fact that a handsome 47. new science magazine, Science Probe! There is a false statement in Mims's is being edited by Mims, a Southern article. He says I wrote in my 51 Baptist fundamentalist who believes column that he told me Eve was bald. that our earliest ancestors had no I said nothing of the kind. What I said parents. •

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have a friend—let's call him Trevor. to low-level electromagnetic fields, He confessed to me one day that which reversed his bio-polarities and I he had tried to date-rape his own created an imbalance in his chakras. anima; and he'd slapped his inner child "So I finally decided to take back my around, too, because the kid wouldn't power," he declared. stop whining. "But it turns out that "What do you mean?" I asked, none of this was my fault," Trevor puzzled. "I thought power lines and explained. "I went to a hypnotherapist, such were the problem in the first who regressed me, and we found out place." that in every one of my lifetimes, "No, I mean my intrinsic power to including the present one, I've been manifest my own wellness," he said. disempowered by a dysfunctional, First he got rid of his computer and abusive family, and that I've been his television and his microwave oven. further disenfranchised by the mech­ And then he quit his job and sued his anistic Western worldview of modern former employer for exposing him to science." all that office-equipment radiation. He "Yeah, there's a lot of that going tried to make a living as an Intuitive around," I said sympathetically. Counselor, which didn't net him much Around the same time that Trevor money. But, he says, "I'm comfortable visited the therapist, he read a book with that. I'm at peace with it. The called Currents of Death, which he incredible thing is that I've learned picked up because he's a sailing buff how to draw on the natural altruism and he thought the book was a tale of others." Altruism, in this case, of tragedy at sea; but instead it turned translates into a lot of free stuff for out to be an expose of the sinister Trevor. People give him food and phenomenon of electro- clothes and a place to stay, and in (knowledge of which Big Business is return he gives them a free "reading," conspiring to keep from us, of course). for which he would normally charge Now he credits the book with saving $150 for a 30-minute session. Trevor's his life, and he further credits Divine little New Age clique is creating its Guidance for making him pick up the own cashless society, a world of trade­ book by mistake. "Wow, talk about offs in which the currency consists of synchronicity," he said to me in a "treatments" or "readings." reverent whisper. The book helped "Do treatments and readings pay him realize that he had been virtually the utility bills?" I asked Trevor. incapacitated by continuous exposure He laughed gently. "Oh Connie,

204 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 you're so mundane sometimes," he said. "My friends and I have learned to trust that the universe will support us, and it does." Anyway, after all those years of exposing himself to the hazards of making a legitimate living, Trevor needed to get his energies cleared and balanced. "So I began to undergo intensive body-work therapy, which included crystal healing, various vibrational techniques, cranial-sacral optimization, and oversoul energy transfer," he said. "Oh, yeah, and colonic irrigation too." But he still had work to do on his psyche. "Fortunately, I was guided to a 12-step program, where I came into contact with others who suffered from the same disorder I had." Having been over the 12-step route myself, I'm pretty familiar with this sort of disorder; it's a type of emo­ tional binge-purge syndrome that causes its sufferers to stuff them­ selves for hours on cliches and other folks' tales of abuse, after which they vomit up their own tales of abuse and even more cliches. "The Program," as Trevor learned to dutifully call it, was very helpful, maybe it was Networking Excellence. and each morning and evening he got Anyway, during that seminar he had down on his knees and thanked a a vision that prompted him to embark Power greater than himself for it. But on a shamanistic journey into the he almost contracted lung cancer by Southwestern desert, where he met breathing all the secondhand smoke up with the hero within, who beat the in the 12-step meeting room; so he hell out of him. But after that they bought a subliminal tape that helped went out for drinks, and his hero led him create affirmations to negate the him to a larger awareness of trans- effects of the cigarette smoke. Pro­ personal realities, and then Trevor ceeds from the sale of the tape, he told went on one of those Men's Weekends me, went to an organization that saves and discovered his own inner wild rain-forest dolphins from post­ man, who, as it happens, is naked. And traumatic stress syndrome, or some­ now my friend is a new person, or thing like that. At any rate, it's a real group of people, one of whom better good cause. be careful lest he get arrested for But the turning point for Trevor indecent exposure. I'd keep the wild was when he went to Boulder, Colo­ man away from the inner child, too, rado, for a weeklong motivational just to be safe; I can't help remem­ seminar on Optimal Mindfulness—or bering the cockpit scene, with the pilot

Winter 1992 205 and the little boy, in the movie know the significance of January 11, Airplane. Anyhow, Trevor is grateful 1992, that's when the universe will be to have experienced, as he so elo­ expanding into dimensions never quently puts it, "the healing and trans­ before experienced—I read this in one formative powers that can only come of those magazines that uses words with the emerging paradigm of global like positive and healthy and inspire in mind-change and quantum conscious­ its statement of purpose, so I know ness" (I couldn't have put it better it's true. Anyway, according to this myself). And now my friend Trevor, magazine, on January 11 all individuals this survivor of a toxic childhood, this who have sufficiently attuned them­ adult child of an alcoholic absent selves to a clear and focused mind-set father, is doing his dream and writing will have the opportunity to expe­ a book about it, from which he plans rience the seventh dimension. I don't to create—yes, you guessed it—a think this necessarily means they'll be seminar. spirited away (so to speak), or if they We were talking about all this, and are, I doubt if it will be anything he told me what a good friend I've been permanent; probably it'll just be a day to him and what a highly evolved trip. They'll be back in time for supper. being he senses I am; and then he Maybe it's like a Rapture Lite. Trevor looked at me for a long, intense says he's "psyched and ready." As for moment and said, "Connie, thank you me, I'm getting the hell out of the way. for being in the universe." I'm running for cover, the way I did during the Harmonic Convergence, I lowered my eyes and said mod­ when I stayed in my office, crouching estly, "Really, it was nothing. I know under my desk next to the laser you'd do the same for me." printer and soaking in low-level Trevor is doing okay these days. radiation until it was all over. Seventh His only problem is that, while trying dimension? No, thanks. I have enough to create his own reality, he ended up work to do screwing things up in just making a big mess, the way he does three dimensions. with all his home projects; and he still had to call in a professional. While Trevor has been doing all his Connie L Schmidt is a freelance writer personal growth work, I've been in Houston. She says she supposes she's dealing with my own inner turmoil. a spiritual humanist (or humorist). "I'm Trevor told me I should figure out still hanging around that shadowland what my core issues are, and then ask between belief and disbelief. But there's the universe for guidance. I said, "Oh, a lot of light in shadowland, and it is but I couldn't. I get shy speaking a natural light that can only exist in a before a crowd." world where things like skepticism and One of the things I'm worried reason and ambiguity—along with a about is what I'm going to do on healthy dose of humor and irreverence— January 11, 1992. In case you don't are allowed to flourish."

*

206 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 Skepticism and Environmental Education BRYAN NICHOLS

t has been noted often in the past ances however, are not the problem. few years that American education The often rustic living conditions and I is woefully inadequate; instead of invariably low pay are not going to stimulating and informing the nation's attract yuppie teachers in suits. What children, it not only fails to inform is a problem are the pseudoscientific them of even basic scientific tenets but beliefs that are prevalent among actually drives them away from the environmentalists, and all too often an sciences. I have been working in the inadequate understanding of the field of environmental education (EE) basics of science. for the past few years, most recently In observing and talking to other and notably in Yosemite National instructors and environmentalists, I Park. The potential that EE has to have heard a number of dubious kindle a sense of wonder and curiosity beliefs raised repeatedly. Mysterious in students of all ages, to pull them herbal remedies and a host of New from dry and tedious textbooks out Age nonsense have strong followings. into the natural world, is considerable. "Scientific" studies, such as the Yet EE has a long way to go before Hundredth Monkey theory, are pre­ it shakes many of the ills that plague sented to children as a reason to public education—inadequate fund­ ing, poor facilities, and minimal attendance by all but well-off children. Unfortunately, from what I have seen, science itself is inadequately understood and poorly taught by many environmental educators, and many "green" pseudoscientific ideas are seldom questioned. If EE is to meet its full potential in both stimulating students' interest in science and the natural world, in addition to helping "save the planet," its administrators and teachers must have a better understanding of what science really means. The stereotypical model of a long­ haired surfer or feminist in earth tones leading children through the forest and preaching vegetarianism continues to plague EE; I have to admit that although I'm not a vegetarian I look a bit like a surfer myself. Appear­

Winter 1992 207 "spread the word." The Gaia theory depressing weirdos. of an ecologically unified planet is To improve the situation, the often stretched into a sort of bizarre scientific method needs to be formally idea of a conscious earth. Why mislead reviewed with all environmental students with this sort of nonsense? educators. Curricula that highlight Two extremely important tenets of critical and creative thought as an most prehistoric Native American answer to the earth's ecological prob­ values—that of harmony with nature lems should be stressed—blatant and a strong concern for future effects advocacy for or against specific organ­ of current actions—are lessons that izations should be discouraged. It is our modern society needs to learn. far more valuable to teach students Unfortunately, these simple philoso­ how to make well-informed decisions phical beliefs are repeatedly lost in the about their own lifestyles than to mishmash that has become our ver­ dictate how they should live. sion of Native American culture, with I am impressed with the attention myths, legends, quotations, and that the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is de­ ceremonies of dubious origin and voting to the education, or lack content often detracting from the thereof, of America's youth. In the simple fact that most ancient Amer­ interests of reaching the educators ican cultures were far more self- who work with the goal of saving the sustaining and far less destructive earth in mind, I hope to see more focus than our own. on ecology-related pseudoscience and Regrettably, EE too often reminds would welcome any input from Si me of organized religion. Instructors writers or readers on how to encour­ too focused on supposedly saving the age rational and logical thought while planet preach the latest dos and teaching in the great outdoors. don'ts—that is, what is politically correct (or "PC," as they say in Bryan Nichols has a degree in marine Berkeley)—without teaching students biology and is an environmental educator to make their own decisions. Attitudes in Yosemite National Park. He likes are too often negative, and laying "critical thinking, creative thought, and down tirades of ecoguilt on students good debates" as much as "hiking beautiful merely puts many of them off. They mountain trails and scuba diving coral then write off their instructors as reefs."

208 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 Fill in the gaps in your SPRING 1990 (vol. 14, no. 3): Why we need to understand science, Sagan. The crisis in pre-college science and math education, Seaborg. Police pursuit of SKEPTICAL satanic crime. Part 1, Hicks. The spread of satanic- cult rumors, Victor. Lying about polygraph tests, Shneour. Worldwide disasters and moon phase, Kelly, Saklofske, and Culver. St. George and the dragon of INQUIRER creationism, Gardner. WINTER 1990 (vol. 14, no. 2): The new catastro- collection phism, Morrison and Chapman. A field guide to critical thinking, Lett. Cold fusion: A case history in 'wishful 15% discount on science'? Rothman. The airship hysteria of 1896-97, Bartholomew. Newspaper editors and the creation- orders of $100 or more evolution controversy, Zimmerman. Special report: New evidence of MJ-12 hoax, Klass. The great Urantia ($6.25 for each copy. To order, use reply mystery, Gardner. card insert.) FALL 1989 (vol. 14, no. 1): Myths about science, Rothman. The relativity of wrong, Asimov. Richard FALL 1991 (vol. 16, no. 1): Near-death experiences, Feynman on fringe science. Luis Alvarez and the Blackmore. Multicultural pseudoscience: Spreading explorer's quest, Mutter. The two cultures, Jones. The scientific illiteracy, Part 1, De Montellano. Science and 'top-secret UFO papers' NSA won't release, Klass. The commonsense skepticism, Aach. Spook Hill, Wilder. metaphysics of Murphy's Law, Price. The Unicorn at Lucian and Alexander, Roae. 1991 CSICOP confer­ large, Gardner. ence, Shore and Frazier. Reeder feedback from Urantia SUMMER 1989 (vol. 13, no. 4): The New Age—An to Titanic, Gardner. Examination: The New Age in perspective, Kurtz. A SUMMER 1991 (vol. 15, no. 4): Lucid dreams, New Age reflection in the magic mirror of science, Blackmore. Nature faking in the humanities, Gallo. O'Hara. The New Age: The need for myth in an age Carrying the war into the never-never land of psi: of science, Schultz. Channeling, Alcock. The psychology Part 2, Gill. Coincidences, Paulos. Locating invisible of channeling, Reed, 'Entities' in the linguistic buildings, Plummer. True believers,Bower . Cal Thomas, minefield, Thomason. Crystals, Lawrence. Consumer the big bang, and Forrest Mims, Gardner. culture and the New Age, Rosen. The Shirley MacLaine SPRING 1991 (vol. 15, no. 3): Special report: Hi-fi phenomenon, Gordon. Special report: California court pseudoscience, Davis. Searching for extraterrestrial jails psychic surgeon, Brenneman. intelligence: An interview with Thomas R. McDonough. SPRING 1989 (vol. 13, no. 3): High school biology Getting smart about getting smarts, Faulkes. Carrying teachers and pseudoscientific belief. Eve and Dunn. the war into the never-never land of psi: Part 1, Gill. Evidence for Bigfoot? Dennett. Alleged pore structure Satanic cult 'survivor' stories, Victor. 'Old-solved in Sasquatch footprints, Freeland and Rowe. The lore mysteries': The Kecksburg incident. Young. Penn & of levitation. Stein. Levitation 'miracles' in India, Teller, the magical iconoclasts, Gordon. Magic, Premanand. Science, pseudoscience, and the cloth of medicine, and metaphysics in Nigeria, Roder. What's Turin, Nickell. Rather than just debunking, encourage wrong with science education? Look at the family, people to think, Seckel. MJ-12 papers 'authenticated'? Eve. Three curious research projects, Gardner. Klass. A patently false patent myth, Sass. WINTER 1991 (vol. 15, no. 2): Special report / Gallup WINTER 1989 (vol. 13, no. 2): Special report: The poll: Belief in paranormal phenomena, Gallup and 'remembering water' controversy, Gardner and Randi; Newport. Science and self-government, Piel. West Bank Bibliographic guide to the 'dilution controversy.' collective hysteria episode, Stewart. Acceptance of Pathologies of science, precognition, and modern personality test results, Thiriart. Belief in astrology: psychophysics, Jensen. A reaction-time test of ESP and A test of the Barnum effect, French, Fowler, McCarthy,precognition , Hines and Dennison. Chinese psychic's pill- and Peers. A test of clairvoyance using signal-detection, bottle demonstration, Wu Xiaoping. The Kirlian McKelvie and Gagne. Intercessory prayer as medical technique, Watkins and Bickel. Certainty and proof in treatment? Wittmer and Zimmerman. Tipler's Omega creationist thought, Leferriere. Point theory, Martin Gardner. FALL 1988 (vol. 13, no. 1): Special report: Astrology FALL 1990 (vol. 15, no. 1): Neural Organization and the presidency, Kurtz and Bob. Improving Human Technique: Treatment or torture, Worrall. The spooks Performance: What about parapsychology? Frazier. of quantum mechanics, Stenger. Science and Sir William The China syndrome: Further reflections on the Crookes, Hoffmasler. The 'N' machine. Camming. paranormal in China, Kurtz. Backward masking, Biological cycles and rhythms vs. biorhythms, Wheeler. Mclver. The validity of graphological analysis, Furnham. The mysterious finger-lift levitation, Gardner. 1990 The intellectual revolt against science, Grove. Reich CSICOP Conference. the rainmaker, Gardner. SUMMER 1990 (vol. 14, no. 4): Ghosts make news: SUMMER 1988 (vol. 12, no. 4): Testing psi claims How four newspapers report psychic phenomena, in China, Kurtz, Alcock, Frazier, Karr, Klass, and Randi. Klare. Thinking critically and creatively. Wade and The appeal of the occult: Some thoughts on history, Tavris. Police pursuit of Satanic crime, Part 2, Hicks. religion, and science, Stevens. Hypnosis and reincar­ Order out of chaos in survival research, Berger. nation, Venn. Pitfalls of perception, Wheeler. Wegener Piltdown, paradigms, and the paranormal, Feder. and pseudoscience: Some misconceptions, Edelman. An Auras: Searching for the light, Loftin.Biorhythm s and investigation of psychic crime-busting, Emery. High­ the timing of death, Lester. Relativism in science, flying health quackery. Hints. The bar-code beast, Gardner. (continued on next page) Keith. Occam's Razor and the nutshell earth, Some remote-viewing recollections, Weinberg. Science, Gardner. mysteries, and the quest for evidence, Gardner. SPRING 1988 (vol. 12, no. 3): Neuropathology and SPRING 1986 (vol. 10, no. 3): The perennial fringe, the legacy of spiritual possession, Beyerstein. Varieties Asimov. The uses of credulity, de Camp. Night walkers of alien experience, Ellis. Alien-abduction claims and and mystery mongers, Sagan. CSICOP after ten years, standards of inquiry (excerpts from Milton Rosen­ Kurtz. Crash of the crashed-saucers claim, Klass. A berg's radio talk-show with guests Charles Gruder, study of the Kirlian effect, Watkins and Bickel. Ancient Martin Orne, and Budd Hopkins). The MJ-12 Papers: tales and space-age myths of creationist evangelism, Part 2, Klass. Doomsday: The May 2000 prediction, Mclver. Creationism's debt to George McCready Price, Meeus. My visit to the Nevada Clinic, Barrett. Morphic Gardner. resonance in silicon chips, Varela and Letelier. Abigail's WINTER 1985-86 (vol. 10, no. 2): The moon was full anomalous apparition, Durm. The riddle of the and nothing happened, Kelly, Rotton, and Culver. Psychic Colorado ghost lights, Bunch and While. The obligation studies: The Soviet dilemma. Ebon. The psycho- to disclose fraud, Gardner. pathology of fringe medicine, Sabbagh. Computers and WINTER 1987-88 (vol. 12, no. 2): The MJ-12 papers: rational thought, Spangenburg and Moser. Psi Part I, Philip ]. Klass. The aliens among us: Hypnotic researchers' inattention to conjuring, Gardner. regression revisited, Baker. The brain and conscious­ FALL 1985 (vol. 10, no. 1): Investigations of fire- ness: Implications for psi, Beyerstein.Past-lif e hypnotic walking, Leikind and McCarthy. Firewalking: reality or regression, Spanos. Fantasizing under hypnosis, Reveen. illusion, Dennett. Myth of alpha consciousness, The verdict on creationism, Gould. Irving Kristol and Beyerstein. Spirit-rapping unmasked, V. Bullough. The the facts of life, Gardner. Saguaro incident, Taylor and Dennett. The great stone FALL 1987 (vol. 12, no. 1): The burden of skepticism, face, Gardner. Sagan. Is there intelligent life on Earth? Kurtz. Medical SUMMER 1985 (vol. 9, no. 4): Guardian astrology Controversies: Chiropractic, Jarvis; , study, Dean, Kelly, Rotton, and Saklofske. Astrology and Barrett, MX).; Alternative therapies, ]ones; Quackery, the commodity market, Rotton. The hundredth Pepper. Catching Geller in the act, Emery. The third monkey phenomenon, Amundson. Responsibilities of eye, Gardner. Special Report: CSICOP's 1987 the media, Kurtz. 'Lucy' out of context, Albert. The conference. debunking club, Gardner. SUMMER 1987 (vol. 11, no. 4): Incredible cremations: SPRING 1985 (vol. 9, no. 3): Columbus poltergeist: Investigating combustion deaths, Nickell and Fischer. I, Randi. Moon and murder in Cleveland, Sanduleak. Subliminal deception, Creed. Past tongues remem­ Image of Guadalupe, Nickell and Fischer. Radar UFOs, bered? Thomason. Is the universe improbable? Shotwell. Klass. Phrenology, McCoy. Deception by patients, Psychics, computers, and psychic computers, Easton. Pankratz. Communication in nature, Orstan. Relevance Pseudoscience and children's fantasies, Evans. of belief systems, Gardner. Thoughts on science and superstrings, Gardner. Special WINTER 1984-85 (vol. 9, no. 2): The muddled 'Mind Reports: JAL pilot's UFO report, Klass; Unmasking Race,' Hyman. Searches for the Loch Ness monster, psychic Jason Michaels, Busch. Razdan and Kielar. Final interview with Milbourne SPRING 1987 (vol. 11, no. 3): The elusive open mind: Christopher, Dennett. Retest of astrologer John Ten years of negative research in parapsychology, McCall, lanna and Tolbert. 'Mind Race,' Gardner. Blackmore. Does astrology need to be true? Part 2: The FALL 1984 (vol. 9, no. 1): Quantum theory and the answer is no, Dean. Magic, science, and metascience: paranormal. Shore. What is pseudoscience? Bunge. The Some notes on perception, D. Sagan. Velikovsky's new philosophy of science and the 'paranormal,' interpretation of the evidence offered by China, h>. Toulmin. An eye-opening double encounter, Martin. Anomalies of Chip Arp, Gardner. Similarities between identical twins and between WINTER 1986-87 (vol. 11, no. 2): Case study of West unrelated people, Wyatt et at. Effectiveness of a reading Pittston 'haunted' house, Kurtz. Science, creationism program on paranormal belief, Woods, Pseudoscien- and the Supreme Court, Seckel, with statements by tific beliefs of 6th-graders, A. S. and S. J. Adelman. Ayala, Gould, and Gell-Mann. The great East Coast UFO Koestler money down the psi-drain, Gardner. of August 1986, Oberg. Does astrology need to be SUMMER 1984 (vol. 8, no. 4): Parapsychology's past true? Part 1, Dean. Homing abilities of bees, cats, and eight years, Alcock. The evidence for ESP, C. E. M. people, Randi. The EPR paradox and Rupert Sheldrake, Hansel. $110,000 dowsing challenge, Randi. Sir Oliver Gardner. Followups: On fringe literature, Bauer; on Lodge and the spiritualists, Hoffmaster. Misperception, Martin Gardner and Daniel Home, Beloff. folk belief, and the occult, Connor. Psychology and FALL 1986 (vol. 11, no. 1): The path ahead: Oppor­ UFOs, Simon. Freud and Fliess, Gardner. tunities, challenges, and an expanded view, Frazier. SPRING 1984 (vol. 8, no. 3): Belief in the paranormal Exposing the faith-healers, Steiner. Was Antarctica worldwide: Mexico, Mendez-Acosta; Netherlands, Hoe- mapped by the ancients? jolly. Folk remedies and bens; U.K., Hutchinson; Australia, Smith; Canada, Gordon; human belief-systems, Reuter. Dentistry and pseudo- France, Rouze. Debunking, neutrality, and skepticism science, Dodes. Atmospheric electricity, ions, and in science, Kurtz. University course reduces para­ pseudoscience, Dolezalek. Noah's ark and ancient normal belief, Gray. The Gribbin effect, Roder. Proving astronauts, Harrold and Eve. The Woodbridge UFO negatives, Pasquarello. MacLaine, McTaggart, and incident, Ridpath. How to bust a ghost. Baker. The McPherson, Gardner. unorthodox conjectures of Tommy Gold, Gardner. WINTER 1983-84 (vol. 8, no. 2): Sense and nonsense SUMMER 1986 (vol. 10, no. 4): Occam's razor, Shneour. in parapsychology, Hoebens. Magicians, scientists, and Clever Hans redivivus, Sebeok. Parapsychology psychics, Ganoe and Kirwan. New dowsing experiment, miracles, and repeatability. Flew. The Condon UFO Martin. The effect of TM on weather, Trumpy. The study, Klass. Four decades of fringe literature, Dutch. haunting of the Ivan Vassilli, Sheaffer. Venus and Veli- kovsky, Forrest. Magicians in the psi lab, Gardner. articles by Oberg, Bauer, Frazier. Academia and the FALL 1983 (vol. 8, no. 1): Creationist pseudoscience, occult, Greenwell. Belief in ESP among psychologists, Schadewald. Project Alpha: Part 2, Randi. Forecasting Padgett, Benassi, and Singer. Bigfoot on the loose, Kurtz. radio quality by the planets, Dean. Reduction in Parental expectations of miracles, Steiner. Downfall of paranormal belief in college course, Tobacyk. Huma­ a would-be psychic, McBurney and Greenberg. Para­ nistic astrology, Kelly and Krutzen. psychology research, Mishlove. SUMMER 1983 (vol. 7, no. 4): Project Alpha: Part SUMMER 1980 (vol. 4, no. 4): Superstitions, Bainbridge 1, Randi. Goodman's' American Genesis,' Feder. Battling and Stark. Psychic archaeology, Feder. Voice stress on the airwaves, Slavsky. Rhode Island UFO film, Emery. analysis, Klass. Follow-up on the 'Mars effect,' Landmark PK hoax, Gardner. Evolution vs. creationism, and the Cottrell tests. SPRING 1983 (vol. 7, no. 3): Iridology, Worrall. The SPRING 1980 (vol. 4, no. 3): Belief in ESP, Morris. Nazca drawings revisited, Nickell. People's Almanac UFO hoax, Simpson. Don Juan vs. Piltdown man, de predictions, Donnelly. Test of numerology, Dlhopolsky. Mille. Tiptoeing beyond Darwin, Greenwell. Conjurors Pseudoscience in the name of the university, Lederer and the psi scene, Randi. Follow-up on the Cottrell and Singer. tests. WINTER 1982-83 (vol. 7, no. 2): Palmistry, Park. The WINTER 1979-80 (vol. 4, no. 2): The 'Mars effect' great SRI die mystery, Gardner. The 'monster' tree- — articles by Kurtz, Zelen, and Abell; Rawlins; Michel and trunk of Loch Ness, Campbell. UFOs and the not-so- Franchise Gauquelin. How I was debunked, Hoebens. The friendly skies, Klass. In defense of skepticism, Reber. metal bending of Professor Taylor, Gardner. Science, FALL 1982 (vol. 7, no. 1): The prophecies of Nostra­ intuition, and ESP, Bauslaugh. damus, Cazeau. Prophet of all seasons, James Randi. FALL 1979 (vol. 4, no. 1): A test of dowsing, Randi. Revival of Nostradamitis, Hoebens. Unsolved mysteries Science and evolution, Godfrey. Television pseudo- and extraordinary phenomena. Gill. Clearing the air documentaries, Bainbridge. New disciples of the para­ about psi, Randi. A skotography scam, Randi. normal, Kurtz. UFO or UAA, Standen. The lost panda, SUMMER 1982 (vol. 6, no. 4): Remote-viewing, Marks. van Kampen. Edgar Cayce, Randi. Radio disturbances and planetary positions, Meeus. SUMMER 1979 (vol. 3, no. 4): The moon and the Divining in Australia, Smith. "Great Lakes Triangle," birthrate, Abell and Greenspan. Biorhythms, Hints. 'Cold Cena. Skepticism, closed-mindedness, and science fic­ reading,' Randi. Teacher, student, and the paranormal, tion, Beyerstein. Followup on ESP logic, Hardin and MorrisKrai. Encounter with a sorcerer, Sack. and Gendin. SPRING 1979 (vol. 3, no. 3): Near-death experiences, SPRING 1982 (vol. 6, no. 3): The Shroud of Turin, Alcock. Television tests of Musuaki Kiyota, Scoff and Mueller. Shroud image, McCrone. Science, the public, Hutchinson. The conversion of J. Allen Hynek, Klass. and the Shroud, Schafersman. Zodiac and personality, Asimov's corollary, Asimov. Gauquelin. Followup on quantum PK, Hansel. WINTER 1978-79 (vol. 3, no. 2): Is parapsychology WINTER 1981-82 (vol. 6, no. 2): On coincidences, a science? Kurtz. Chariots of the gullible, Bainbridge. Ruma Falk. Croiset: Part 2, Hoebens. Scientific crea- The Tunguska event, Oberg. Space travel in Bronze tionism, Schadewald. Follow-up on 'Mars effect,' Rawlins, Age China, Keightley. responses by CS1COP Council and Abell and Kurtz. FALL 1978 (vol. 3, no. 1): An empirical test of astrol­ FALL 1981 (vol. 6, no. 1): Gerard Croiset: Part 1, ogy, Bastedo. Astronauts and UFOs, Oberg. Sleight of Hoebens. Test of perceived horoscope accuracy, Lackey. tongue, Schwartz. The Sirius "mystery," Ridpath. Planetary positions and radio propagation, lanna and SPRING/SUMMER 1978 (vol. 2, no. 2): Tests of three Margolin. Bermuda Triangle, 1981, Dennett. Observa­ psychics, Randi. Biorhythms, Bainbridge. Plant percep­ tion of a psychic, Mclntyre. tion, Kmetz. Anthropology beyond the fringe, Cole. SUMMER 1981 (vol. 5, no. 4): Investigation of 'psy­ NASA and UFOs, Klass. A second Einstein ESP letter, chics,' Randi. ESP: A conceptual analysis, Gendin. The Gardner. extroversion-introversion astrological effect, Kelly and FALL/WINTER 1977 (vol. 2, no. 1): Von Daniken, Story, Saklofske. Art, science, and paranormalism, Habercom. The Bermuda Triangle, Kusche. Pseudoscience at Profitable nightmare, Wells. A Maltese cross in the Science Digest, Oberg and Sheaffer. Einstein and ESP, Aegean? Loftin. Gardner. N-rays and UFOs, Klass. Secrets of the SPRING 1981 (vol. 5, no. 3): Hypnosis and UFO psychics, Rawlins. abductions, Klass. Hypnosis not a truth serum, Hilgard. SPRING/SUMMER 1977 (vol. 1, no. 2): Uri Geller, H. Schmidt's PK experiments, Hansel. Further Marks and Kammann. , Hyman. Tran­ comments on Schmidt's experiments, Hyman. Atlan- scendental Meditation, Woodrum. A statistical tean road, Randi. Deciphering ancient America, test of astrology, McGervey. Cattle mutilations, McKusick. A sense of the ridiculous, Lord. Stewart. WINTER 1980-81 (vol. 5, no. 2): Fooling some people FALL/WINTER 1976 (vol. 1, no. 1): Dianetics, Wallis. all the time. Singer and Benassi. Recent perpetual motion Psychics and clairvoyance. Fine. "Objections to developments, Schadewald. National Enquirer astrology Astrology," Westrum. Astronomers and astro­ study, Mechler, McDaniel, and Mulloy. Science and the physicists as astrology critics, Kurtz and Nisbel. mountain peak, Asimov. Biorhythms and sports. Fir. Von Daniken's chariots, FALL 1980 (vol. 5, no. 1): The Velikovsky affair — Omohundro. Letters to the Editor

Archaeological 'dowsing'? this for free, and we could not see any way of getting the MHTD to authorize I was fascinated to read Mark Plummer's payment. For another, it was conceivable article regarding Karen Hunt and her that her involvement in a serious project archaeological dowsing ("Locating Invis­ could result in our report failing to pass ible Buildings," 51, Summer 1991). review by the Department of Natural I've met Hunt several times in my Resources, as such methodology is not capacity as a professional archaeologist. held to comply with existing federal At our first meeting, at a conference in guidelines for cultural-resources man­ April 1983, she spoke at length to a agement. Also, we frankly could ill colleague of mine who had just pre­ afford the additional time a serious sented a paper that touched upon investigation of Hunt's claims would archaeological reconnaissance strate­ demand. gies. That was when I first became Plummer's concerns that the econ­ acquainted with her rather remarkable omy of Hunt's methods might be appeal­ assertions regarding EMPFs (electro­ ing are well grounded. However, I find magnetic photofields). She informed us it extremely unlikely that she will be that, with her divining rods, she could afforded official recognition. The laws not only find a building site and produce governing cultural resources call for a detailed floorplan, but that with the fairly rigorous standards, and state aid of a cherrypicker gantry she could historic preservation officers take a also determine the height of the van­ decidedly dim view of nonstandard ished structure's roof, the location and methodology. Any survey results based size of windows, and so forth. I admitted upon unconventional practice are sure I could not understand how this was to be questioned, and without com­ possible; I was answered by her turning pelling evidence of veracity such a her back upon me and addressing herself survey is bound to be invalidated. It is solely to my friend. rather telling that Hunt is not employed We never again had occasion to to conduct reconnaissance surveys. One converse, but it was far from the last cannot credit this to any reticence on time I encountered her theories. She was her part. famous—or infamous—for them. At one time, a senior archaeologist at the William Brame Missouri Highway and Transportation Atlanta, Ga. Department (where I worked for five years) and I discussed the possibility of having Hunt make preliminary "inves­ I enjoyed Mark Plummer's article on tigations" using her divining techniques Karen Hunt's hunt for invisible build­ in our project areas. We thought that ings. In explaining the physics of this would enable us to make an inves­ electromagnetic waves, the author tigation of her claims using conventional implied that they are not radiated by archaeological strategies. buildings: ". . . Any electromagnetic Several practical considerations kept waves emitted by buildings in 1860 (if this from ever being more than a pipe- this were possible) would have passed dream, however. For one, it was doubt­ Alpha Centauri ... by 1864!" Of course ful that Hunt could be induced to do nineteenth-century structures emitted

212 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 electromagnetic waves! Everything with work as dowsing, so the work cited is ir­ a temperature greater than -273.16° C relevant. (absolute zero) emits radiation. The Roberts seems to be Hunt's last supporter thermally agitating atoms and molecules in the Indiana University academic com­ that make up the walls and roof are the munity. If he is genuinely interested in a transmitters and antennae that release scientific evaluation of her claims, he will the energy. Unfortunately for Hunt, accept my challenge to: (l) take Hunt's thesis once the walls and roof (and all the atoms and my article to independent physicists for and molecules) are gone from a building, a written evaluation of her theories; (2) ask there is no more electromagnetic radi­ Hunt for the name and address of the ation from it. electronic expert she mentions in a letter dated March 10, 1984, who she says is de­ M. B. Boslough veloping a machine that bleeps/blinks when Albuquerque, N.M. encountering "photo fields," and ask him for a written progress report on the machine; (3) Arrange for Hunt to undergo a controlled Plummer attempts to give the impres­ scientific test of her abilities with a protocol sion that he has done research on the acceptable to all parties. topic of locating the foundations of Hunt is welcome to reply to my article buildings that are no longer standing. or to provide evidence to support her claims The fact that he makes no mention of by being tested. a major book on the subject, Dowsing and Church Archaeology, by Richard N. Bailey, Eric Cambridge, and H. Denis Lucid dreaming Briggs (Wimborne, Dorset: Intercept Press, 1988), or of a number of articles It was with great personal interest that in British archaeological journals, forces I read Susan Blackmore's article "Lucid me to draw one of two conclusions: (1) Dreaming" (SI, Summer 1991). I have Plummer's research is inadequate and long been able to consciously manipulate his article should have been neither actions and circumstances while dream­ accepted nor published by a journal with ing, but I had no idea that it was an pretensions to a "scientific" reputation; area of serious scientific pursuit or that or (2) Plummer set out to destroy the there was some unfortunate connection reputation of a hard-working, devoted with the New Age movement. historic preservationist and would not The need to practice induction of include anything that supported her or lucid dreaming as described in her article her work. seemed rather forced. I find that if I pay attention to my thoughts when Warren E. Roberts I fall asleep, no matter what the Professor of Folklore content, I can engage in a lucid dream Indiana University with good success. This does require Bloomington, Ind. some concentrated effort on my part, consequently I do not attempt it all that often. Mark Plummer responds: Other aspects of this phenomenon discussed in the article were strikingly Warren Roberts has not presented any facts familiar. One frequent lucid dream I to refute the opinion of physicists who have enjoy has to do with flying in some examined the theoretical basis for Karen form. For me, this ability more resem­ Hunt's claims as set out in her thesis. bles a weightlessness than a Superman- His sole argument in support of the type of flying through space. As an application of her theories is the citation of example, this feeling is manifested in a British publication that makes untested dreams when I find I can make a claims for dowsing. Hunt has stated in conscious decision to leap off a tall writing that she does not refer to her building with a single bound (a la

Winter 1992 213 Superman!), but then descend in a being abed). The paralysis of sleep causes controlled free-fall. Movement within the fear. this free-fall is not unlike swimming What is frightening about this underwater. group of dreams is that one cannot tell Blackmore's description of repetitive if one is dreaming until one wakes. In dreams of waking up is another occur­ the other kind of dream, however rence I have experienced. This particular distorted, somehow one knows one dream does not seem particularly unus­ is dreaming even if the question "Am ual, as we've all had apprehensive I dreaming?" is not asked. The gratifi­ feelings caused by external pressures cations that the usual dream supplies that carry over into the dream world. are not given in the dreams in group I believe this can trigger the frustrating 1. These dreams come too close; "wake-up dream," particularly if the they are too naked an invader of our dreamer wakes up too early and then sleep. goes back to sleep. Perhaps I have misunderstood or I look forward to any other publica­ even reversed the definition of lucid tion on this subject, and congratulate the dreaming described in the article. It is, SKEPTICAL INQUIRER for bringing forth however, my contention that what is such intriguing articles. frightening about what I have called lucid dreams—what makes them not Peter L. Steyn "fun to have"—is that they ask the Paterson, N.J. question "What is real?" This may be an impossible question, an unspeakable question, for a dream. It seems to me incontrovertible that there are two kinds of dreams: (1) those Morris Glaser that are set in the room, indeed, in the Brooklyn, N.Y. bed, in which the dreamer is sleeping, and (2) those that are not. It is, I believe, the former that have come to be called, On coincidences or should be called, "lucid" dreams. In addition, I think it is an error to leap I read with great interest the article to the assumption made of the first "Coincidences" by John A. Paulos (SI, group that one can "control" them or, Summer 1991). He deals effectively with for all their reality, that one is conscious the mathematical considerations, but while they take place. leaves untouched, I think, the important From my own experience, one question of what is the true nature of thing seems certain: that is, the coincidence, at least as that word is response to each kind of dream is commonly used and understood. different. Consider an example of the kind of Years ago, I had a recurrent dream "everyday" coincidence ordinary people that, in its simplest form, took place in would remark on. Let us suppose I am the bed in which I was dreaming. I would visiting, for the first time perhaps, a not know, because of the vividness with town I do not know. Walking along the which the dream replicated my sleeping street I meet, by chance, an acquaintance posture, if I was awake or asleep. I would of mine. We talk; in conversation he says think: "If I am awake I can prove it by that it is his first visit to this town, too. moving." But because I'd be asleep I Our visits are quite unconnected. What could not do so. This, in sleep, would a remarkable coincidence! A million-to- frighten me, and I would struggle one chance! against the restraining immobility of But is it? To estimate the chance, one sleep and awake with a kind of jacti­ must be able to enumerate, at least tation, my heart pounding. There were roughly, the possible nonoccurrences of subsequent, more horrifying variants of the event. It might have been a different this dream (always with the constant of town, a different day, a different time,

214 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 a different pair of acquaintances, etc. A I realized long ago I was inadvertently little thought will show that these things accumulating them in my personal are all incommensurable. They are not journals. I now consciously relish their merely unknown quantities that might, appearances and seek suitable perspec­ given enough time and effort, be eval­ tives for them. uated. That is, they cannot be counted even in principle, because they cannot be F. A. Bennett meaningfully defined. So the "chances West Tisbury, Mass. against" cannot be guessed at; and that some coincidence will occur is inevitable, as Paulos well shows in his article. But this does not prevent us from noticing Mathematical proof of the birthday when we think a coincidence has "coincidence" is rather complex and occurred. difficult for the nonmathematician to So wherein lies the nature of a follow. (I believe it is used in the training coincidence? To me, it has no existence of actuaries, and that is indeed a proof outside the recognition of it. of its difficulty to fathom!) There is, Studying coincidences, tells us more however, a simpler way of visualizing about the workings of the human mind it, and I feel it is important to use such than about the external physical world. explanations whenever possible. This Where there is no observer, there is no helps to explain things that otherwise coincidence; if unreported and unre­ can take on a mystical form. marked, it is as if it has not occurred. Suppose you have 365 boxes (in place It is what we each recognize as a of days in the year) and 50 items (in coincidence that is interesting and place of people) that you want to pack worthy of study, not the events in them. Well, there are very many more themselves. ways of packing your 50 items into the 365 boxes so that two (or more) share D.L.F. Sealy the same box than there are ways of London, U.K. arranging them so that there is only one in a box. The more items there are, the less the chances become of two not What a coincidence! sharing a box. Yesterday evening, July 4, I was invited to attend the play Harvey, a Jon Miller whimsical "investigation" of reality. Helston Yesterday I also took to task the Cornwall, U.K. rearrangement of my voluminous address database, which I'd avoided for over a year as just too tedious. • Before bed I picked up my Summer In his article on coincidences, John SKEPTICAL INQUIRER and was delighted Paulos points out the high likelihood to discover the Paulos article "Coin­ that two people share the same birthdate cidences." and then mentions how much unlikelier Wouldn't you know! He uses the it is that a person has some specific lap-top computer database concept to birthdate; he gives July 4 as an example. network coincidences analogous to However, it just happens that my own the current use of business cards. One birthdate is July 4; what an astounding of the persistent idiosyncrasies in coincidence! Paulos must have astound­ Harvey concerns the passing out of ing psychic powers to have so accurately calling cards. tailored his article to my own specific The article continues. "Or consider birthday. the famous birthday problem in prob­ ability theory . . . say July 4." Daniel Tobias Coincidences indeed are fascinating. Shreveport, La.

Winter 1992 215 Human auras He notes that writers on auras tend to disagree on important points, such as size, I read with interest Geoffrey Dean's shape, and color, which "does not bolster column on the "Physiological Explana­ the notion that the auras thus perceived have tion of Human 'Auras' " (Summer 1991), an objective existence outside of the imag­ and noticed that both he and D. F. ination of the viewer." Fraser-Harris (whose findings he If D. L. Hinbest disagrees, he can prove quoted) seemed to have overlooked an his point by passing Charles Tart's doorway important point of W. J. Kilner's results test, where a person near the edge of a from the work carried out using his doorway should be detectable from the aura screens. projecting into the doorway. Neher (pp. 187- Kilner's work using glass screens in 198) reports proposing this test to two dozen an attempt to view the aura did involve aura readers; but only two agreed to take looking through a dark screen imme­ it, and both failed. Readers may have seen diately prior to observing the "patient" an aura reader failing this test on NBC's through a pale screen (which is the point 1989 TV spectacular Paranormal Live, at which he observed the "aura") but despite a glittering $100,000 prize if suc­ the results of this method showed not cessful. only one outline of the patient (as would In summary, until aura readers are be the case with persistence of vision) found who can pass this test, there would but three outlines, each one having a seem to be nothing in auras that is beyond different point of origin, and a different ordinary explanation. shape. The first one, which Kilner named the "Etheric Double," was seen as a thin band less than an inch in width and The Mims affair outlining the entire shape of the body. The second one he named the "Inner I love your magazine, let there be no Aura." He claimed that it began at the doubt about that. I carry each issue with outer edge of the "Etheric Double" and me until I have carefully 'read each was between two and four inches in article. But Martin Gardner's defense of width. The third he called the "Outer Scientific American in the Forrest Mims Aura," which, he said, began at the outer affair is dead wrong. Here is an issue edge of the "Inner Aura" and varied where wise people are going to have to considerably in size from person to admit that Scientific American blew it and person. simply walked away. How, I wonder, would Geoffrey Gardner presented Mims's qualifica­ Dean begin to explain this as persistence tions well: "No one doubts Mims's ability of vision? to write about home experiments with­ out smuggling in opinions on evolution D. L. Hinbest and the Bible." Mims wrote three articles Sheffield and they were acceptable. A clearly South Yorkshire, U.K. established fact is that Mims is capable of writing the column. So then why not hire him? Because of a "PR nightmare"? Ridiculous! Geoffrey Dean replies: Re-read Gardner's article and substi­ tute the word "black" or "female" for My brief article merely drew attention to creationist. Would you really say that he a little-known study, nothing more. But should not be hired when the PR after-images are not the only explanation problem was the fact that he was black for auras. Andrew Neher, in his Psychol­ or female or Jewish? I don't care that ogy of Transcendence (Dover, New York, Gardner insists that Scientific American 1990:186-191), also mentions contrast does not discriminate on the basis of effects, imagery effects, and physical causes. religious beliefs. Scientists form opin-

216 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 ions based on facts. The facts are that selves Evangelicals. The confusion of this magazine did not hire a qualified "mainline" with "mainstream" arose person because of his beliefs even among persons (including scholars and though those beliefs did not affect his journalists) who lived in urban areas and ability to do the job. wealthy suburbs and had therefore not observed a representative cross-section J. Ward Moody of the population. As Garry Wills Department of Physics pointed out in Under God: Religion and Brigham Young University Politics in America, the presence of Provo, Utah Evangelical Christianity (which is in a perpetual state of revival) has been a remarkably stable feature of American Whatever other faults Forrest Mims political life but is periodically "rediscov­ may have, and supporting creationism ered" by journalists who think that it while trying to write for Scientific is a new and menacing movement. Thus, American is one of them, he is not a when the Scientific American staffers fundamentalist Baptist if he believes the were told that Forrest Mims was an days of Genesis are not 24-hour time- Evangelical or perhaps even a Funda­ spans or if he believes in the longterm mentalist, they may have considered him creation of species. That makes him to be a representative of a dangerous what fundamentalist Baptists would call fringe element rather than the main­ heretic—or worse, a liberal. Biblical stream. His frequent telephone calls to inerrancy is the test that separates the staffers probably did little to dispel this two Southern Baptist camps, and never impression. the twain shall meet. In the first Perhaps the lack of awareness of the place, I don't think fundamentalist importance of Evangelical Protestantism Southern Baptists would even dare read in America is yet another example of Scientific American, much less try to innumeracy. Even educated persons write for it. seem unaware of the demographics of the American population. Evangelical Lou Hudson Protestants are overlooked except when Fort Worth, Tex. a creationism statute is passed by a state legislature or a television preacher is caught in some peccadillo or tries to run The Forrest Mims incident illustrates a for the presidency. If advocates of widespread misunderstanding of what evolutionary biology are ever to make constitutes the mainstream in religious headway in the mainstream of America, affiliation in the United States. The so- they must address the moral and called mainline Protestant churches theological concerns of Evangelical (e.g., Presbyterian and Episcopalian) Christians. Otherwise, the biologists were not so named because they are will just end up "preaching to the mainstream—the term mainline refers to choir." the wealthy and prestigious string of suburban communities along a commu­ Laurie E. Thomas ter rail-line outside Philadelphia. The Norfolk, Va. mainline churches therefore tend to represent the wealthy, privileged, and educated. The importance of Evangelical I don't think Scientific American handled Protestantism is underestimated the Forrest Mims affair too well. because of the proliferation of Protest­ Obviously it's Jonathan Piel's magazine ant churches. Although the most pop­ and he has the right to do as he sees ulous single church in the United States fit. Whether he was actually right, as is the Roman Catholic Church, most opposed to having the right, is another Americans are Protestant—and almost thing. He should not have rejected Mims half of all Americans consider them­ for the Amateur Scientist column unless

Winter 1992 217 Mints intended it as a sounding board when we set about trying to make sense for creationism. And apparently he of the world; and as such it is a didn't. Lots of scientists have had quirks. respectable field of philosophical A whole procession of physicists from inquiry. Metaphysical assumptions the nineteenth century to today have underlie every serious (and indeed advocated psi and spiritualism. While spurious) theoretical speculation, they believed claptrap about the super­ although when there is agreement little natural, they made contributions to purpose may be served by dwelling upon their fields. Crookes invented his the metaphysical foundations of a crookes tube. particular field of inquiry. At times of The greater danger I think comes disciplinary crisis, however, these basic from Piel's action. While good public assumptions characteristically become relations may improve science's image, matters of great concern... . it damages its substance. Public relations Let it not be thought that I wish to is the basis of magic; people most readily defend all the garbage that goes under accept irrational beliefs to be liked and the heading "Metaphysics." I don't. But respected. And while public relations "Metaphysics" is a label for a robust area may appear to have served science this of inquiry that has persisted for more time around, it at best served a parody than two millennia and continues to of science, not in principle much above fascinate those with a particular dispo­ magic. Thus, while Piel fought the image sition for abstract reflection. It is an of creationism, in reality he did a honorable word that I would be loath disservice to Scientific American readers. to give up lightly to the charlatans and He believed Mims was otherwise the shysters. best candidate for Amateur Scientist columnist, didn't he? So he lost a good William Grey columnist over a mere quirk. I admit Department of Philosophy public relations has only caused minor University of New England damage to science here, but I'm not Armidale, Australia certain it's minor in other cases.

Richard A. Dengrove Alexandria, Va. Nontraditional spirituality

I was extremely distressed to read Lys 'Metaphysics' honorable Ann Shore's article in the Summer 1991 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. While I was not at As a philosopher it often saddens me all bothered to see her discrediting "New to survey the books that are regularly Age" books on channeling and crystals, allocated to the sections of bookshops I found her use of the term questionable devoted to philosophy. Since many New (p. 342) to describe such diverse and Age authors have appropriated (or non-New Age theories and philosophies misappropriated) the vocabulary of as Jungian analysis (which is mentioned serious philosophical inquiry, this mis- elsewhere in the same issue, on p. 420, allocation is quite intelligible. as a legitimate area for scientific inquiry) The appropriation of the vocabulary and Eastern philosophy to be prejudicial of philosophy has another unfortunate and not at all consistent with the consequence. It brings legitimate fields SKEPTICAL INQUIRER'S stated objectives. of inquiry into disrepute. It distresses As a skeptic and a Wiccan, I resent me, for example, to see the word her attack on nontraditional spirituality metaphysical repeatedly bracketed with (such as that of "indigenous" cultures, "occult" and "New Age" by Lys Ann which Shore includes in her category of Shore and others (SI, Summer 1991). questionable subjects), especially her use Metaphysics examines the funda­ of the terms questionable and so-called in mental assumptions that we employ relation to Goddess religion. By using

218 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 such hostile language, Shore denies criticism of psychotherapy, by implica­ legitimacy to women's spirituality and tion, in this part of the review, was Wicca. Wicca is a religion with at least unfair. one legally recognized, tax-exempt umbrella group—the Covenant of the P. C. S. Hoaken, M.D. Goddess—and its beliefs are held by its Professor of Psychiatry practitioners as seriously as the articles Queen's University of Christianity, Islam, Judaism, and Kingston, Ontario, Canada other major world religions are held by the followers of those faiths. . . . Condescension self-defeating Ginger Jaye Phillips Webster, Tex. I was dismayed by the glib attitude displayed in Part 2 of Samual T. Gill's article "Carrying the War into the Never-Never Land of Psi." From title to Therapists not advisors conclusion the tone of the article was condescending, superior, and even The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER provided a contemptuous. . . . service in reviewing the book Critical I am no supporter of pseudoscience. Thinking in Clinical Practice, by Eileen I am a "true believer" in the same Gambrill (Summer 1991). Perhaps principle Gill claims guides his efforts: reviewer Robert A. Baker had the the need for independent investigation mandate to stray from this specific book of reality. Like him, I believe we must to a more general critique of psycho­ learn to think for ourselves rather than therapy with comment on "metapsychi- blindly follow any piper—pied or oth­ atry," a reported merging of psychiatry erwise. But condescending attitudes and with mysticism and the occult. I was glad the cavalier psi-party crashing he that he brought this subject to the encourages are counterproductive to attention of your readers. that aim. What "outstanding victory," My main concern, however, is his what "triumph" can we imagine we have comparison of the taped interchange won if our humiliated victims close us between psychic and client and what out and turn an emotionally deafened Baker thinks goes on between a patient ear to everything we represent? These or client and a psychotherapist. I think tactics may offer some ego gratifica­ it is misleading for him to suggest that tion—who can resist the heady charge patients or clients come to psychother­ of being able to say "Gotcha!"?—but I apists seeking "direction" from an "all- seriously doubt they will aid in the knowing, future-seeing guru who "reduction of . . . nonsense." They will resolves problems, provides comfort, certainly not convert "true believers" in gives reassurance, points out the correct pseudoscience into enlightened seekers direction, and feels good about having of knowledge or truth. helped one more poor unfortunate." Psychics may give advice and offer Maya Kaathryn Bohnhoff direction; but it is not considered Grass Valley, Calif. consistent with good therapeutic prac­ tice, in most kinds of psychotherapy, to offer advice except under very unusual Style and money circumstances, for example, when a patient is determined to do something Your praise of the Toronto Globe and that will surely be socially destructive. Mail's Style Book (Summer 1991, p. 353) Regardless of the shortcomings of many might have been tempered if you had different types of psychotherapy, and a look at the newspaper itself. For the lack of scientific basis for their example, the Globe is one of the few theoretical formulations, I think Baker's newspapers I know that used to have

Winter 1992 219 a disclaimer ("for entertainment only") over its astrology column, but removed The letters column is a forum for views on it a few months ago. Also, on page D8 matters raised in previous issues. Brief letters of the June 15 edition, there are no (less than 250 words) are welcome. We less than four advertisements for reserve the right to edit longer ones. They astrologers. should be typed double-spaced. Due to the You can draw what inferences you volume of letters, not all can be published. like from this (or none, if you wish). My Address them to Letters to the Editor, inference is that when it comes to SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, 3025 Palo Alto literary style, the Globe editors want Dr. NE, Albuquerque, NM 87111. their writers to get it right. When it comes to money, the Globe publishers want to get that too. Sorry to sound like a cynic.

Morton S. Rapp, M.D. STATEMENT OF OWNERSHIP, Willowdale MANAGEMENT. AND CIRCULATION Ontario, Canada (Required by 39 U.S.C. 3685) Date of filing: October 11, 1991. Title: The Skeptical Inquirer. Frequency of issue: Quarterly. Complete mailing address of known office of publication: 3965 Peril of omniscience concept Rensch Road. P.O. Box 703, Buffalo, NY 14226. Complete mailing address of the headquarters of general business offices of the publisher: 3965 Rensch The letter from Mark Gass in your Road, P.O. Box 703, Buffalo, NY 14226. Publisher: CSICOP, Inc. (Committee for the Scientific Investi­ Summer 1991 issue is interesting in that gation of Claims of the Paranormal), 3965 Rensch Gass seems to suggest defending the Road, P.O. Box 703, Buffalo. NY 14226. Editor: Kendrick Frazier, 3025 Palo Alto Dr., N.E., Albu­ "efficacy of prayer" in part by an appeal querque, NM 87111. Managing Editor: Doris Doyle, to the omniscience of God. Divine P.O. Box 703, Buffalo, NY 14226. Owner: CSICOP, Inc. (Committee for the Scientific Investigation of omniscience is a concept fraught with Claims of the Paranormal, Inc.), 3965 Rensch Road, difficulty and philosophic peril; the P.O. Box 703, Buffalo, NY 14226. Known bondholders, mortgagees, and other security holders: None. problem of freeing it (no pun intended) Aver. no. copies of each issue during preceding 12 from a commitment to bottom-line months: A. Total no. copies printed (Net press run) 40,968. B. Paid and/or requested circulation (1) Sales determinism has not, I think, been through dealers and carriers, street vendors and solved; and to this day theistic philo­ counter sales 1,395: (2) Mail subscriptions 33,552. C. Total paid and/or requested circulation 34,947. D. sophers and philosophic theists torment Free distribution by mail, carrier, or other means, themselves about it. Since a less than samples, complimentary, and other free copies 2,677. E. Total distribution (Sum of C and D) 37,624. F. fully omniscient God could yet answer Copies not distributed (1) Office use, left over, unaccounted, spoiled after printing 3,344; (2) Return at least some of the prayers addressed from news agents 0. G. Total (Sum of E, F 1 and to Her, whereas a fully omniscient God 2) 40,968. would be obliged to simply observe the Actual no. copies of single issue published nearest necessary (because infallibly known to filing date: A. Total no. copies printed (Net press run) 41,410. B. Paid and/or requested circulation (1) Sales Her) answering or nonanswering of through dealers and carriers, street vendors and each of them, I recommend that Gass counter sales 1,441; (2) Mail subscriptions 32.650. C. Total paid and/or requested circulation 34,091. D. consider invoking less problematic Free distribution by mail, carrier, or other means, suppositions. Mayhap some of them samples, complimentary, and other free copies 2,680. E. Total distribution (Sum of C and D) 36.771. F. would be testable. Mayhap not. Copies not distributed (1) Office use, left over, unaccounted, spoiled after printing 4,639; (2) Return from news agents 0. G. Total (Sum of E, F 1 and Tom McLaughlin 2)41,410. Lubbock, Tex.

220 CSICOP News

Announcing the CSICOP Legal Defense Foundation BARRY KARR Executive Director, CSICOP

en years ago, while I was a student to the bitter end. As a skeptic, I like at the State University of New to find normal explanations for unus­ TYork at Buffalo, I was taking ual events. I would like someone to courses in Political Science with the explain to me how such lawsuits can idea of attending law school upon be allowed to proceed through the graduation. One of my housemates at system. the time was a law student. Watching Unlike the law in some other him closely for a year helped me to countries, there is no automatic realize that the law was not my calling mechanism in the United States that after all. would make the person bringing the The irony is that virtually every suit responsible, if he or she loses the day since mid-1986 I have been in­ case, for the costs incurred by the volved in fighting lawsuits brought defendant. Thus, an innocent organ­ against CSICOP. We had a couple of ization or person can be named in months off in 1988, but not a day has lawsuit after lawsuit. This technique passed since I became executive direc­ is so popular in the United States that tor of CSICOP in July 1989 that we it has its own acronym—SLAPP weren't being sued by someone. (Strategic Lawsuits Against Public What have I learned in my real- Participation). world law school? First, that there is The basic idea of a SLAPP is to force no such thing as justice unless you are your opponent to spend a large rich. Second, that there is no such amount of time and vast sums of thing as First Amendment rights— money defending the suit. The longer unless you can pay for them. Third, a suit can be dragged out the better. that the American legal system is This accomplishes two goals—to drain often unfair. Fourth, that I should the defendant of time and money so have gone to law school. he or she can't do anything but I have seen and heard my share of fight the suit, and to coerce the strange things since I began working defendant into silence from fear of at CSICOP. But nothing amazes me future suits. more than watching The Law in Because suits of this nature could action. Even if it is apparent that a threaten the very existence of this case is meritless and will be dismissed organization, we have established the at some point down the line, you still CSICOP Legal Defense Foundation. must fight it vigorously, at each step. This fund will be used to pay costs

Winter 1992 221 associated with existing lawsuits and arise. Lawyers interested in defending act as a reserve in the event of future the rights of skeptics are urged to actions. We also hope to be able to write or call me at CSICOP's Buffalo assist other skeptics who are facing address. similar difficulties. Contributions to the CSICOP CSICOP will also maintain a list of Legal Defense Foundation are tax- lawyers who are sympathetic to the deductible and should be sent to my skeptics' cause and would be willing attention at the CSICOP office in to act as resources should the need Buffalo.

THE CSICOP LEGAL DEFENSE FOUNDATION

YES, I want to help CSICOP meet the expenses associated with its current lawsuits and establish a fund to draw on in case of future suits. D I enclose my tax-deductible contribution in the amount of $ Please charge this amount to my o Visa a MasterCard # Exp

Name.

Address.

City. .State. .Zip.

Phone.

Mail to CSICOP Legal Defense Foundation Attention: Barry Kan- Box 703 Buffalo, NY 14226

222 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 16 Local, Regional, and National Organizations The organizations listed below have aims MICHIGAN. Great Lakes Skeptics, Carol similar to those of CSICOP and work in Lynn, contact, 1264 Bedford Rd., Grosse cooperation with CSICOP but are indepen­ Pointe Park, MI 84230-1116. dent and autonomous. They are not affiliated MINNESOTA. Minnesota Skeptics, Robert W. with CSICOP, and representatives of these McCoy, 549 Turnpike Rd., Golden Valley, organizations cannot speak on behalf of MN 55416. St. Kloud ESP Teaching CSICOP. Investigation Committee (SKEPTIC), UNITED STATES Jerry Mertens, Coordinator, Psychology ALABAMA. Alabama Skeptics, Emory Kim- Dept., St. Cloud State Univ., St. Cloud, brough, 3550 Watermelon Road, Apt. MN 56301. 29A, Northport, AL 35476 (205-759- MISSOURI. Kansas City Committee for 2624). Skeptical Inquiry, Verle Muhrer, Chair­ ARIZONA. Tucson Skeptical Society man, 2658 East 7th, Kansas City, MO (TUSKS), James McGaha, Chairman, 64124. Gateway Skeptics, Chairperson, 2509 N. Campbell Ave., Suite #16, Steve Best, 6943 Amherst Ave., Univer­ Tucson, AZ 85719. Phoenix Skeptics, sity City, MO 63130. Michael Stackpole, Chairman, P.O. Box NEW MEXICO. New Mexicans for Science & 60333, Phoenix, AZ 85028. Reason, John Geohegan, Chairman, 450 CALIFORNIA. Bay Area Skeptics, Rick Moen, Montclaire SE, Albuquerque, NM 87108; Secretary, 4030 Moraga, San Francisco, John Smallwood, 320 Artist Road, Santa CA 94122-3928. East Bay Skeptics Fe, NM 87501 (505-988-2800). Society, Daniel Sabsay, President, P.O. NEW YORK. Finger Lakes Association for Box 20989, Oakland, CA 94620 (415-420- Critical Thought, Ken McCarthy, 107 0702). Sacramento Skeptics Society, Williams St., Groton, NY 13073. New Terry Sandbek, 3838 Watt Ave., Suite York Area Skeptics (NYASk), William C303, Sacramento, CA 95821-2664 (916- Wade, contact person, 97 Fort Hill Road, 488-3772). Huntington, NY 11743-2205. Western COLORADO and WYOMING. Rocky Mountain New York Skeptics, Tim Madigan, Chair­ Skeptics, Bela Scheiber, President, P.O. man, 3159 Bailey Ave., Buffalo, NY 14215. Box 7277, Boulder, CO 80306. NORTH CAROLINA. N.C. Skeptics, Michael DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA, DELAWARE, MARY­ J. Marshall, Pres., 3318 Colony Dr., LAND, and VIRGINIA. National Capital Jamestown, NC 27282. Area Skeptics, c/o D. W. "Chip" Denman, OHIO. South Shore Skeptics, Page Stephens, 8006 Valley Street, Silver Spring, MD 6006 Fir Avenue, Cleveland OH 44102 20910. (216-631-5987). FLORIDA. Tampa Bay Skeptics, Gary Posner, OHIO, INDIANA, KENTUCKY. Ohio Valley 6219 Palma Blvd., #210, St. Petersburg, Skeptics, Contact Joseph F. Gastright, 111 FL 33715 (813-867-3533). Wallace Ave., Covington, KY 41014, (513) GEORGIA. Georgia Skeptics, Correspon­ 369-4872 or (606) 581-7315. dence Secretary, P.O. Box 654, Norcross, PENNSYLVANIA. Paranormal Investigating GA 30091. Committee of Pittsburgh (PICP), Richard ILLINOIS. Midwest Committee for Rational Busch, Chairman, 5841 Morrowfield Inquiry, Lawrence Kitsch, President, P.O. Ave., #302, Pittsburgh, PA 15217 (412- Box 2792, Des Plaines, IL 60017-2792. 521-2334). Delaware Valley Skeptics, INDIANA. Indiana Skeptics, Robert Craig, Brian Siano, Secretary, Apt. 1-F, 4406 Chairperson, 5401 Hedgerow Drive, Walnut St., Philadelphia, PA 19104. Indianapolis, IN 46226. SOUTH CAROLINA. South Carolina Commit­ KENTUCKY. Kentucky Assn. of Science tee to Investigate Paranormal Claims, Educators and Skeptics (KASES), Chair­ John Safko, 3010 Amherst Ave., Colum­ man, Prof. Robert A. Baker, 3495 Cas- bia, SC 29205. tleton Way North, Lexington, KY 40502. TENNESSEE. Tennessee Valley Skeptics, LOUISIANA. Baton Rouge Proponents of Daniel O'Ryan, Secretary, P.O. Box Rational Inquiry and Scientific Methods 50291, Knoxville, TN 37950. (BR-PRISM), Henry Murry, Chairman, TEXAS. Austin Society to Oppose Pseudo- P.O. Box 15594, Baton Rouge, LA 70895. science (ASTOP), Lawrence Cranberg, MASSACHUSETTS. Skeptical Inquirers of President, P.O. Box 3446, Austin, TX New England, Laurence Moss, Chairman, 78764. Houston Association for Scientific c/o Ho & Moss, Attorneys, 72 Kneeland Thinking (HAST), Darrell Kachilla, P.O. St., Boston, MA 02111. Box 541314, Houston, TX 77254. North (continued on next page) Texas Skeptics, John Blanton, President, Convenor, Postfach 1222, D-6101 P.O. Box 111794, Carrollton, TX 75011- Rossdorf. 1794. West Texas Society to Advance INDIA. B. Premanand, Chairman, 10, Chet- Rational Thought, Co-Chairmen: George tipalayam Rd., Podanur 641-023 Coimba- Robertson, 6500 Eastridge Rd., #73, tore Tamil nadu. For other Indian organ­ Odessa, TX 79762-5219 (915-367-3519); izations contact B. Premanand for details. Don Naylor, 404 N. Washington, Odessa, IRELAND. Irish Skeptics, Peter O'Hara, TX 79761. Contact, Dept. of Psychiatry, Airedale WASHINGTON. The Society for Sensible General Hospital, Steeton, Keighly, West Explanations, Philip Haldeman/Michael Yorkshire, UK BD20 6TD. Dennett, T.L.P.O. Box 8234, Kirkland, ITALY. Comitato Italiano per il Controllo WA 98034. delle Affermazioni sul Paranormale, WISCONSIN. Wisconsin Committee for Lorenzo Montali, Secretary, Via Ozanam Rational Inquiry, Mary Beth Emmericks, 3, 20129 Milano, Italy. Convenor, 8465 N. 51st St., Brown Deer, JAPAN. Japan Skeptics, Jun Jugaku, Chair­ WI 53223. person, 1-31-8-527 Takadanobaba, Shinjuku-Ku, Tokyo 169. ARGENTINA. CAIRP, Director, Ladislao MALTA. Contact: Vanni Pule', "Kabbalah," Enrique Maiquez, Jose Marti, 35 dep C, 48 Sirti St., The Village, St. Julian's. 1406 Buenos Aires. MEXICO. Mexican Association for Skeptical AUSTRALIA. National: Australian Skeptics, Research (SOMIE), Mario Mendez- P.O. Box E324 St. James, NSW 2000. Acosta, Chairman, Apartado Postal 19- Regional: Australian Capital Territory, 546, Mexico 03900, D.F. P.O. Box 555, Civic Square, 2608. New­ NETHERLANDS. Stichting Skepsis, Rob castle Skeptics, Chairperson, Colin Keay, Nanninga, Secretary, Westerkade 20, Physics Dept., Newcastle University, 9718 AS Groningen. NSW 2308. Queensland, P.O. Box 2180, NEW ZEALAND. New Zealand Skeptics, Brisbane, 4001. South Australia, P.O. Box Warwick Don, Dept. of Zoology, Univ. of 91, Magill, 5072. Victoria, P.O. Box 1555P, Otago, Dunedin, NZ. Melbourne, 3001. Western Australia, 25 NORWAY. NIVFO, K. Stenodegard, P.O. Headingly Road, Kalamunda 6076. Box 2119, N-7001, Trondheim. Skepsis, BELGIUM. Committee Para, J. Dommanget, Terje Emberland, Contact, P. B. 2943 Chairman, Observatoire Royal de Bel- Toyen 0608, Oslo 6. gique, Avenue Circulaire 3, B-1180 SOUTH AFRICA. Assn. for the Rational Brussels. SKEPP, W. Betz, Secretary, Investigation of the Paranormal (ARIP), Laarbeeklaan 103, B1090 Brussels (FAX: Marian Laserson, Secretary, 4 Wales St., 32-2-4774301). Sandringham 2192. CANADA. National: Chairman, James E. SPAIN. Alternativa Racional a las Pseudo- Alcock, Glendon College, York Univ., sciencias (ARP), Luis Miguel Ortega, 2275 Bayview Avenue, Toronto, Ontario. Executive Director, P.O. Box 6.112, Regional: Alberta Skeptics, Elizabeth Bilbao. Anderson, P.O. Box 5571, Station A, SWEDEN. Vetenskap & Folkbildning Calgary, Alberta T2H 1X9. British (Science and People's Education), Sven Columbia Skeptics, Barry Beyerstein, Ove Hansson, Secretary, Box 185,101 22 Chairman, Box 86103, Main PO, North Stockholm. Vancouver, BC, V7L 4J5. Manitoba SWITZERLAND. Conradin M. Beeli, Con­ Skeptics, Bill Henry, President, Box 92, venor, Rietgrabenstr. 46 CH-8152 St. Vital, Winnipeg, Man. R2M 4A5. Opfikon. Ontario Skeptics, Henry Gordon, Chair­ UNITED KINGDOM. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER man, P.O. Box 505, Station Z, Toronto, Representative, Michael J. Hutchinson, 10 Ontario M5N 2Z6. Quebec Skeptics: Jean Crescent View, Loughton, Essex IG10 Ouellette, C.P. 282, Repentigny, Quebec 4PZ. The Skeptic magazine, Editors, Toby J6A 7C6 (514-498-7977). Howard and Steve Donnelly, P.O. Box ESTONIA. Contact Indrek Rohtmets, Hori- 475, Manchester M60 2TH. London sont Magazine, 200102 Tallinn, Navva Student Skeptics, Michael Howgate, vd. 5. President, 71 Hoppers Rd., Winchmore FINLAND. Skepsis, Lauri Grohn, Secretary, Hill, London N21 3LP. Manchester Skep­ Ojahaanpolku 8 B17, SF-01600 Vantaa. tics, David Love, P.O. Box 475, Manches­ FRANCE. Comite Francais pour l'Etude des ter M60 2TH. Wessex Skeptics, Robin Phenomenes Paranormaux, Claude Allen, Dept. of Physics, Southampton Benski, Secretary-General, Merlin Gerin, University, Highfield, Southampton S09 RGE/A2 38050 Grenoble Cedex. 5NH. GERMANY. East German Skeptics, A. U.S.S.R. Science & Religion, Contact Edward Gertler, Chairman, Inst, for Forensic Gevorkian, Ulyanovskaya 43, Kor 4, Medicine, Humboldt Univ., Berlin 1040. 109004, Moscow. Perspectiva, Oleg G. Society for the Scientific Investigation of Bakhtiarov, Director, 36 Lenin Blvd., Kiev Para-Science (GWUP), Amardeo Sarma, 252001. The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal Paul Kurtz, Chairman Scientific and Technical Consultants George Agogino, Dept. of Anthropology, Eastern New Mexico University. William Sims Bainbridge, professor of sociology, Illinois State University. Gary Bauslaugh, dean of technical and academic education and professor of chemistry, Malaspina College, Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada. Richard E. Berendzen, astronomer, Washington, D.C. Barry L. Beyerstein, professor of psychology, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada. Martin Bridgstock, lecturer, School of Science, Griffith Observatory, Brisbane, Australia. Vern Bullough, dean of natural and social sciences, SUNY College at Buffalo. Richard Busch, magician, Pittsburgh, Pa. Shawn Carlson, physicist, Berkeley, Calif. Charles J. Cazeau, geologist, Tempe, Ariz. Ronald J. Crowley, professor of physics, California State University, Fullerton. Roger B. Culver, professor of astronomy, Colorado State Univ. J. Dath, professor of engineering, Ecole Royale Militaire, Brussels, Belgium. Felix Ares De Bias, professor of computer science, University of Basque, San Sebastian, Spain. Sid Deutsch, Visiting Professor of electrical engineering, University of South Florida, Tampa. J. Dommanget, astronomer, Royale Observatory, Brussels, Belgium. Natham J. Duker, assistant professor of pathology, Temple University. Barbara Eisenstadt, educator, Scotia, N.Y. Frederic A. Friedel, philosopher, Hamburg, West Germany. Robert E. Funk, anthropologist, New York State Museum &. Science Service. Sylvio Garattini, director, Mario Negri Pharmacology Institute, Milan, Italy. Laurie Godfrey, anthropologist. University of Massachusetts. Gerald Goldin, mathematician, Rutgers University, New Jersey. Donald Goldsmith, astronomer; president. Interstellar Media. Clyde F. Herreid, professor of biology, SUNY, Buffalo. Philip A. Ianna, assoc. professor of astronomy, Univ. of Virginia. William Jarvis, chairman, Public Health Service, Loma Linda University, California. I. W. Kelly, professor of psychology, University of Saskatchewan. Richard H. Lange, chief of nuclear medicine, Ellis Hospital, Schenectady, New York. Gerald A. Larue, professor of biblical history and archaeology. University of So. California. Bernard J. Leikind, staff scientist, GA Technologies Inc., San Diego. William M. London, assistant professor of health education, Kent State University. Jeff Mayhew, computer consultant, Aloha, Oregon. Thomas R. McDonough, lecturer in engineering, Caltech, and SETI Coordinator of the Planetary Society. James E. McGaha, Major, USAF; pilot. Joel A. Moskowitz, director of medical psychiatry, Calabasas Mental Health Services, Los Angeles. Robert B. Painter, professor of microbiology, School of Medicine, University of California. John W. Patterson, professor of materials science and engineering, Iowa State University. Steven Pinker, assistant professor of psychology, MIT. James Pomerantz, professor of psychology, Rice University; Daisie Radner, professor of philosophy, SUNY, Buffalo. Michael Radner, professor of philosophy, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. Robert H. Romer, professor of physics, Amherst College. Milton A. Rothman, physicist, Philadelphia, Pa. Karl Sabbagh, journalist, Richmond, Surrey, England. Robert J. Samp, assistant professor of education and medicine, University of Wisconsin- Madison. Steven D. Schafersman, geologist, Houston. Chris Scott, statistician, London, England. Stuart D. Scott, Jr., associate professor of anthropology, SUNY, Buffalo. Erwin M. Segal, professor of psychology, SUNY, Buffalo. Elie A. Shneour, biochemist; director, Biosystems Research Institute, La Jolla, California. Steven N. Shore, astronomer, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Md. Barry Singer, psychologist, Eugene, Oregon. Mark Slovak, astronomer, University of Wisconsin-Madison. Douglas Stalker, associate professor of philosophy, University of Delaware. Gordon Stein, physiologist, author; editor of the American Rationalist. Waclaw Szybalski, professor, McArdle Laboratory, University of Wisconsin-Madison. Ernest H. Taves, psychoanalyst, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Sarah G. Thomason, professor of linguistics. Uni­ versity of Pittsburgh, editor of Language.

Subcommittees Astrology Subcommittee: Chairman, I. W. Kelly, Dept. of Educational Psychology, University of Saskat­ chewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 0W0, Canada. College and University Lecture Series Subcommittee: Chairman, Paul Kurtz; Lecture Coordinator, Ranjit Sandhu, CSICOP, Box 703, Buffalo, NY 14226-0703. Education Subcommittee: Chairman, Steven Hoffmaster, Physics Dept., Gonzaga Univ., Spokane, WA 99258-0001; Secretary, Wayne Rowe, Education Dept., Univ. of Oklahoma, 820 Van Vleet Oval, Norman, OK 73019. Electronics Communications Subcommittee: Chairman, Page Stevens, 6006 Fir Ave., Cleveland, OH 44102. Paranormal Health Claims Subcommittee: Co-chairmen, William Jarvis, Professor of Health Education, Dept. of Preventive Medicine, Loma Linda University, Loma Linda, CA 93350, and Stephen Barrett, M.D., P.O. Box 1747, Allentown, PA 18105. Parapsychology Subcommittee: Chairman, Ray Hyman, Psychology Dept., Univ. of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97402. UFO Subcommittee: Chairman, Philip J. Klass, 404 "N" Street S.W., Washington, D.C. 20024. The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal

The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Para- normal attempts to encourage the critical investigation of paranormal ^— and fringe-science claims from a responsible, scientific point of view and to disseminate factual information about the results of such inquiries to the scientific community and the public. It also encourages critical thinking, an appreciation of science, and the use of reason in examining —=• important issues. To carry out these objectives the Committee: —

• Maintains a network of people interested in critically examining para­ normal, fringe-science, and other claims, and in contributing to con­ sumer education. _^

• Prepares bibliographies of published materials that carefully examine such claims. ~=

• Encourages and commissions research by objective and impartial inquiry in areas where it is needed.

• Convenes conferences and meetings.

• Publishes articles, monographs, and books that examine claims of the paranormal.

• Does not reject claims on a priori grounds, antecedent to inquiry, but rather examines them objectively and carefully.

The Committee is a nonprofit scientific and educational organization The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is its official journal