Polling Memo

FROM: BRYON ALLEN

SUBJECT: KANSAS SENATE DATA

DATE: JUNE 12, 2019

A recent WPA Intelligence Kansas Senate poll conducted for Club for Growth PAC shows that, if Mike Pompeo does not run for U.S. Senate, Matt Schlapp’s strong record of conservative activism and support for President Trump’s priorities would give him a compelling narrative with primary voters and could make him the conservative choice in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate.

If Pompeo doesn’t run, Schlapp’s bio would give him a big advantage over establishment Congressman Roger Marshall and allow him to capture the conservative vote in the Republican primary.

Schlapp’s narrative is much more compelling to Kansas Republican primary voters than Marshall’s.

We read voters the following bios of Matt Schlapp and Roger Marshall in a hypothetical head-to-head match-up.

Matt Schlapp is a native Kansan, leading conservative voice, and Fox News political commentator. Schlapp is one of the strongest defenders of President Trump and his wife is a senior Trump aide. Schlapp is a conservative lobbyist who has defended President Trump from the politically-motivated Mueller investigation, advocated for Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation to the Supreme Court, and backed President Trump’s efforts to secure the border.

Roger Marshall is a Congressman and OB-Gyn who delivered more than five thousand babies in Western Kansas over 25 years. Marshall was elected to Congress in 2016 and serves on the House Agriculture Committee where he helped write a Farm Bill that protects crop insurance. In addition to his work on agriculture, Marshall voted to jump start the economy by rolling back regulations and voted to pass the tax cut bill.

Primary voters preferred Schlapp to Marshall by an eight point margin.

Bio Ballot Matt Schlapp 49% Roger Marshall 41% Undecided 10%

Schlapp’s narrative is stronger with key primary voter groups including Trump Republicans and Very Conservative primary voters.

Schlapp’s narrative of conservative activism could win the conservative base in Kansas should Mike Pompeo not run.

Trump Very GOP Conservative Matt Schlapp 51% 51% Roger Marshall 40% 41% Undecided 9% 8%

Methodology

WPAi selected a random sample of registered voters from the Kansas voter file with a probability of selection equal to the probability of a voter voting in the Republican primary (PPS sampling). Data were collected by live telephone interviews June 3-6, 2019. The sample stratified based on geography, age, and gender based on WPAi’s GOP primary turnout model. The margin of error is ±4.4% in 95 out of 100 cases with 37% cell phone interviews.

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