FEDERAL PARTY SUPPORT FROZEN: NO BUMP FOR

CONSERVATIVES FROM CONVENTION, NO LIFT FOR

LIBERALS FROM BUDGET OR OTHER ACTIONS Federal Party Leaders Run “Even” With Their Parties Canadians Split As To Whether Should Call An Election This Spring

Public Release Date March 26th, 2004 (11:00 PM, EST)

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FEDERAL PARTY SUPPORT FROZEN: NO BUMP FOR

CONSERVATIVES FROM CONVENTION, NO LIFT FOR

LIBERALS FROM BUDGET OR OTHER ACTIONS Federal Party Leaders Run “Even” With Their Parties Canadians Split As To Whether Paul Martin Should Call An Election This Spring

Toronto, ONT – On the heels of a Conservative Party leadership convention, crown corporation head firings, new rules for scrutiny and whistle blowing, pre-budget assistance to western farmers, and a new budget, many speculated the log-jam in federal party support would break. But, according to the latest Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released today, the party support numbers are virtually the same as where they were just prior to the budget in early March. Currently the Liberals stand at 38% (exactly where they were in our release of March 8th 2004) among decided voters, the Conservatives follow at 27% (up 1 point), the at 15% (down 2 points), the Bloc Quebecois at 10% (44% in , down 5 points), and the Green Party at 5%. Of the remaining electorate, 4% would vote for some ‘other’ party, and 12% would not vote/don’t know/ or refused to offer an opinion.

When asked about the party leaders, 39% of Canadians believe that Paul Martin “would make the best Prime Minister of Canada” (essentially the same percentage who would vote Liberal). One quarter of Canadians (25%) think “would make the best Prime Minister” (virtually the same as Conservative voter support), 14% think “would make the best Prime Minister” (equivalent to NDP voter support), and 6% believe Gilles

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Duceppe “would make the best Prime Minster” (23% in Quebec – where his party leads him by 21 points).

Half (47%) of Canadians agree that Paul Martin should not call an election this spring, while the other half (48%) disagree and believe he should.

Canadians are also split when considering whether or not they are certain if they will definitely not vote for the Liberal Party: Half (47%) agree with the statement “I will definitely not vote for the federal Liberal Party under any circumstances,” compared with 49% who disagree.

Just over four in ten (44%) agree with the statement “I think the federal Liberals deserve to be re-elected under the new leadership of Paul Martin.” In comparison, a majority (52%) disagree with this statement.

Over four in ten Canadians (45%) agree with the statement “even though the Conservatives may have some policies I don’t like, I may vote for them in order to clean house in Ottawa and teach the Liberals a lesson.” Half (52%) disagree with this statement.

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These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll. The polling was conducted between March 23 and March 25th 2004. The questions are based on a randomly selected sample of 1000 adult Canadians during this time frame. With a sample of this size, the results for each question are considered accurate to within ± 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Federal Party Support Frozen

Despite a well-publicized Conservative Party leadership convention, the dramatic actions of the Liberal government in response to the sponsorship scandal, a billion dollar federal aid package to western farmers, and the introduction of the government’s first budget, the federal political landscape remains unchanged from where it was two weeks ago (survey fielded from March 2nd – March 7th, 2004). Among decided voters in Canada today:

-- 38% would vote for the Liberal Party (as it was two weeks ago) -- 27% would vote for the Conservative Party (up one point) -- 15% would vote for the New Democratic Party (down two points) -- 10% would vote for the Bloc Quebecois (44% of voter support in Quebec, down 5 points) -- 5% would vote for the Green Party (up one point) -- 4% would vote for some other party -- 12% would not vote/don’t know/ refused • Regionally, the only notable movement in voter support has been in British Columbia, where the Conservatives have risen to 38%, up 11 points from 27% two weeks ago.

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Conversely, both the Liberals (28%, down 5 points from 33%) and the NDP (18%, down 11 points from 29%) have lost support. • Support for the Liberals by region: Ontario (47%), Atlantic Canada (47%), Quebec (33%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (33%), British Columbia (28%), and Alberta (24%). • Support for the Conservatives by region: Alberta (54%), British Columbia (38%), Atlantic Canada (31%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (28%), Ontario (28%), and Quebec (8%). • Support for the NDP by region: Saskatchewan/Manitoba (30%), British Columbia (18%), Ontario (17%), Atlantic Canada (14%), Alberta (11%), Quebec (6%). • The Conservatives have higher support among those aged 35 and over than those under 35 years of age (32% vs. 17%). • The Liberals have their highest support among those aged 18-34 (45% vs. 35% among those aged 35 and over).

Most Federal Party Leaders Run “Even” With Their Parties

Putting aside which party they may be supporting, 39% of Canadians believe that Paul Martin “would make the best Prime Minister of Canada” – followed by Conservative leader Stephen Harper (25%), NDP leader Jack Layton (14%), Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe (6%) and Green Party leader (3%). The remaining respondents either indicated some other candidate (3%) or did not volunteer an opinion (11%). The percentage that say that each party leader would make the best Prime Minister essentially matches the percentage who would vote for that party, except in Quebec where 23% indicate Gilles Duceppe “would make the best Prime Minster of Canada” (a difference of – 21 points).

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• In Alberta, the percentage that believe that Paul Martin would make the best Prime Minister of Canada (35%) is 11 points higher than the percentage that would vote for the Liberal Party (24%).

• In British Columbia, 28% believe Stephen Harper would make the best Prime Minister, 10 points lower than the percentage that would vote Conservative (38%).

• In Atlantic Canada the percentage that feel Paul Martin would make the best Prime Minister (39%) is 8 points lower than the percentage that would vote for the Liberal Party (47%).

• In Saskatchewan/Manitoba the percentage that feel Jack Layton would make the best Prime Minister of Canada (15%) is 15 points lower than the percentage that would vote for the NDP (30%).

• In Quebec the percentage that feel that Gilles Duceppe would make the best Prime Minister of Canada (23%) is 21 points lower than the percentage that would vote for the Bloc Quebecois.

• Rural voters are significantly more likely than urban voters to believe that Stephen Harper would make the best Prime Minister of Canada (31% vs. 23%).

• As education level rises the proportion that believe Paul Martin would make the best Prime Minister rises (29% less than high School, 34% high school, 38% some post secondary or college diploma, 47% university degree)

• As annual household income level rises the proportion that believe Paul Martin would make the best Prime Minister rises (32% among those with a household income of less

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than $30,000, 38% among those with a household income of between $30,000 to less than $60,000, 48% among those with a household income of $60,000 or more).

Canadians Split As To Whether Paul Martin Should Call An Election This Spring

Half (47%, essentially unchanged from 45% in mid January) of Canadians agree that Paul Martin “should not call an election this spring” (24% somewhat agree, 24% strongly agree). While the other half (48%) of Canadians disagree with this notion and believe he should call an election this spring (22% somewhat disagree, 26% strongly disagree). The remaining 5% don’t know.

• Level of agreement is consistent across all voter preferences: Liberal voters (52%), NDP (49%), Conservative (45%), Bloc Quebecois (45%), and Green (43%).

• Agreement with the statement “Prime Minister Paul Martin should not call an election this spring” by region: Quebec (52%), British Columbia (49%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (49%), Ontario (46%), Alberta (40%), and Atlantic Canada (40%).

• Disagreement with the statement “Prime Minister Paul Martin should not call an election this spring” by region: Alberta (55%), Atlantic Canada (51%), Ontario (50%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (48%), British Columbia (47%), and Quebec (41%).

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Nearly Half (47%) Will Definitely Not Vote For Liberal Party, 49% Don’t Rule It Out

Canadians are also split when considering whether or not they are certain if they will not vote for the Liberal Party. Half (47%) of Canadians agree with the statement “I will definitely not vote for the federal Liberal Party under any circumstances” (14% strongly agree, 33% somewhat agree). This contrasts against 49% who disagree with this statement (20% somewhat disagree, 29% strongly disagree). The remaining 4% of respondents did not volunteer an opinion.

• Agreement with the statement “I will definitely not vote for the federal Liberal Party under any circumstances in the next federal election” by region: British Columbia (57%), Quebec (56%), Alberta (53%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (44%), Ontario (39%), and Atlantic Canada (38%).

• Disagreement with the statement “I will definitely not vote for the federal Liberal Party under any circumstances in the next federal election” by region: Ontario (58%), Atlantic Canada (57%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (53%), Alberta (42%), British Columbia (40%), and Quebec (39%).

Minority (44%) Believe Liberals Deserve To Be Re-elected Under New Leadership of Martin… Majority (52%) Disagree…

Just over four in ten (44%) agree with the statement “I think the federal Liberals deserve to be re-elected under the new leadership of Paul Martin” (28% somewhat agree, 15% strongly

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agree). In comparison, five in ten (52%) disagree with this statement (28% somewhat disagree, 15% strongly disagree). One in twenty five (4%) indicate they ‘don’t know.’

• Agreement with the statement “I think the Liberals deserve to be re-elected under the new leadership of Paul Martin” by region: Ontario (51%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (43%), British Columbia (39%), Quebec (39%), Alberta (37%), and Atlantic Canada (37%).

• Disagreement with statement “I think the Liberals deserve to be re-elected under the new leadership of Paul Martin” by region: British Columbia (58%), Atlantic Canada (57%), Alberta (56%), Quebec (56%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (55%), and Ontario (45%).

Just Under Half (45%) May Vote Conservative In Order To “Clean House”

Just under half (45%) of Canadians with the statement “even though the Conservatives may have some policies I don’t like, I may vote for them in order to clean house in Ottawa and teach the Liberals a lesson” (23% somewhat agree, 22% strongly agree). Half (52%) disagree with this statement (18% somewhat disagree, 34% strongly disagree). Only 3% of respondents volunteer no opinion.

• Agreement for potentially voting Conservative is highest in Western Canada (Alberta – 58%, and British Columbia – 53%, Saskatchewan/Manitoba – 45%), and Quebec (47%) and lowest in Ontario (39%) and Atlantic Canada (35%) .

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• Disagreement with the statement “even though the Conservatives may have some policies I don’t like, I may vote for them in order to clean house in Ottawa and teach the Liberals a lesson is highest in Atlantic Canada (62%), followed by Ontario (59%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (53%), Quebec (48%), British Columbia (45%), and Alberta (36%).

• Respondents aged 35 and over are significantly more likely to agree with this statement than are those under the age of 35 (47% vs. 39%).

-30- For more information on this news release, please contact: Darrell Bricker President & COO Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs (416) 324-2900

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