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Stray Dogs and Virtual Armies Radicalization and Recruitment to Jihadist Terrorism in the United States Since 9/11

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Stray Dogs and Virtual Armies Radicalization and Recruitment to Jihadist Terrorism in the United States Since 9/11 INVESTMENT IN PEOPLE AND IDEAS CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and EDUCATION AND THE ARTS decisionmaking through research and analysis. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service INFRASTRUCTURE AND of the RAND Corporation. TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY Support RAND SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Purchase this document TERRORISM AND Browse Reports & Bookstore HOMELAND SECURITY Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND Investment in People and Ideas Program View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation occasional paper series. RAND occa- sional papers may include an informed perspective on a timely policy issue, a discussion of new research methodologies, essays, a paper presented at a conference, a conference summary, or a summary of work in progress. All RAND occasional papers undergo rigorous peer review to ensure that they meet high standards for research quality and objectivity. Stray Dogs and Virtual Armies Radicalization and Recruitment to Jihadist Terrorism in the United States Since 9/11 Brian Michael Jenkins INVESTMENT IN PEOPLE AND IDEAS This publication results from the RAND Corporation’s Investment in People and Ideas program. Support for this program is provided, in part, by the generosity of RAND’s donors and by the fees earned on client-funded research. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication ISBN: 978-0-8330-5880-5 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2011 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html). Published 2011 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface In 2010, Brian Michael Jenkins, Senior Adviser to the President of the RAND Corporation, examined the phenomenon of homegrown terrorism in the United States and suggested some strategies for changing the approach to fighting terrorism as terrorism itself changes. That work is documented in Would-Be Warriors: Incidents of Jihadist Terrorist Radicalization in the United States Since September 11, 2001 (RAND Occasional Paper OP-292-RC, 2010). As the nation observes the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, Americans are mind- ful of the terrorist threat and wondering where the nation stands. In this new paper, Jenkins revisits the topic of homegrown terrorism, expands on his remarks about the current environ- ment and domestic counterterrorist strategy, and updates the numbers and case descriptions to include all of 2010. The discussion should be of particular interest to local, state, and federal law enforcement authorities. This publication results from the RAND Corporation’s Investment in People and Ideas program. Support for this program is provided, in part, by the generosity of RAND’s donors and by the fees earned on client-funded research. iii Contents Preface ........................................................................................................... iii Summary ........................................................................................................vii Acknowledgments ............................................................................................. xi Al Qaeda’s Emphasis on Do-It-Yourself Terrorism ....................................................... 1 The Terrorists .................................................................................................... 3 Who’s In and Who’s Out? ...................................................................................... 3 The Numbers ..................................................................................................... 4 Numbers of Cases of Terrorism in the United States ...................................................... 4 Numbers of Individual Homegrown Terrorists ............................................................ 6 Comparison with Europe ....................................................................................... 7 Profile of the Recruits ............................................................................................ 8 U.S. Terrorists Abroad ........................................................................................11 Going Abroad to Fight .........................................................................................11 The Somali Cases ................................................................................................12 Recruiting in Diaspora Communities Is Not New .........................................................14 Radicalization and Recruitment to Terrorism ...........................................................15 Communications and the Importance of the Internet ......................................................15 The Path to Terrorism ..........................................................................................17 A Closer Look at the Terrorist Plots ..........................................................................19 Stray Dogs, Not Lone Wolves .................................................................................21 Suicide Attacks Are Rarely Contemplated by American Recruits ........................................ 22 Assessing the Threat .......................................................................................... 23 Slouching Toward Action ..................................................................................... 23 Attitudes of the American Muslim Community ........................................................... 23 Potential Future Threats Drive Concerns ....................................................................25 An Appreciation of the Current Situation ................................................................... 26 Chronology of the Cases .....................................................................................29 Bibliography ....................................................................................................41 v Summary The evidence suggests that al Qaeda, although weakened, remains as intent as ever on its worldwide terrorist campaign. But it faces a more difficult and dangerous operating environ- ment than it did 10 years ago and has necessarily changed its approach. Instead of conducting large-scale attacks, which are difficult to plan and implement in the glare of improved U.S. intelligence, al Qaeda seeks American homegrown recruits to implement a campaign of indi- vidual jihad and do-it-yourself terrorism. How successful has al Qaeda been with this new approach in the years since 9/11? So far, the turnout is tiny. A total of 176 Americans have been indicted, arrested, or otherwise identi- fied as jihadist terrorists or supporters since 9/11. The 176 individuals were involved in 82 cases, 20 of which were announced in 2010, as compared with 15 in 2009. This analysis counts cases, plots, and individuals. A case represents the culmination of an investigation. It may involve a single individual or a group of persons charged with materi- ally assisting or joining a jihadist terrorist group abroad or with plotting terrorist attacks in the United States. Plots comprise the subset of cases in which individuals or small groups were accused of planning terrorist attacks against targets in the United States. Obviously, these cause the greatest concern. The number of cases and individuals involved in homegrown terrorism increased in 2009 and again in 2010, but counting cases turns out to be an imperfect way of measuring activity. In fact, fewer individuals were arrested or indicted in 2010 than in 2009, while the cases in both years reflect investigations of activity going back to the middle of the decade. This paper examines the cases of homegrown terrorism from September 11, 2001, through
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