LATIN AMERICAN NEWSLETTERS latin american regional report Brazil & Southern Cone April 2019 - RBS-19-04 ISSN 1741-4423 C O N T E N T S URUGUAY 2 Introduction Ruling party remains united, but opposition prepares for intense primaries In this edition of the Latin American Regional Report: Brazil & Southern Cone are included articles on matters that look set to have an impact on the BRAZIL 5 governments of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. From having to pre - Brazil’s airspace is open for business – the Trump-Bolsonaro deal pare for highly contested elections to facing questions over public security, economic, and foreign policy decisions, the topics analysed pose chal - ARGENTINA 7 lenges that could diminish public support for the respective governments. Argentina’s poverty problem CHILE 10 In the midst of a general election year and with party primaries due in June, Piñera under fire over ID checks for public attention in Uruguay is turning towards who is going to be vying for minors the presidency and the general state in which the different political parties ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS 12 will arrive at the election. The election looks set to be one of the most contest - ed ever, with a record number of candidates expected to run. It is also believed that the leftist ruling Frente Amplio (FA) coalition will face the biggest chal - lenge since it came to power in 2005. Against this backdrop the competition for presidential nominations in the opposition parties is proving to be intense. In Brazil , the decision by President Jair Bolsonaro to sign a bilateral deal that for the first time allows the US access to the South American country’s satel - lite launching facility located in its northern coast could be a double-edged sword. The deal reinforces Brazil-US ties and opens up potentially signifi - cant business opportunities. But critics are concerned that it could lead to the displacement of local communities; that it could produce environmental damage; and that in order to secure it the Bolsonaro government made too many concessions to the US. As such the agreement, which requires con - gressional ratification, has the potential to become a source of discontent with the Bolsonaro administration. Argentina may, like Uruguay, also be holding a general election this year, but the attention is currently focused on the revelations that the country’s poverty rates are once again rising. This appears to be an indictment of the economic policies implemented by the government led by President Mauricio Macri. The Macri administration may argue that this is sympto - matic of the dysfunctional domestic economy that it inherited from the pre - vious administration and that it is still trying mend. But inevitably, the gen - eral deterioration of living standards makes Macri’s prospective re-election less likely as public support for his governments falls. Meanwhile, in Chile we focus on an initiative promoted by the Sebastián Piñera government that seeks to improve public security by allowing the police to perform identity checks and searches on minors. The initiative is proving highly controversial and has even been denounced as a violation of children’s rights by international organisations. The controversy is further undermining the public image of the already unpopular Piñera government. Latin American Brazil & Southern Cone Report 1 April 2019 - RBS-19-04 URUGUAY | POLITICS Ruling party remains united, but opposition prepares for intense primaries Uruguay’s electoral race looks like it will boil down to a neck-and-neck contest between the leftist ruling Frente Amplio (FA) coalition and the cen - tre-right opposition Partido Nacional (PN, Blancos). All public opinion polls currently suggest that the FA is in the lead but that it will once again face a run-off if it is to win a fourth consecutive presidential term. All polls favour the ruling party. It currently has 40% of voting intentions, fol - lowed by the PN on 29%, the right-of-centre opposition Party Colorado (PC) on 16%, the right-wing Partido de la Gente on 4%, the centrist Partido Independiente on 4%, Unidad Popular on 1%, and the Partido Ecologista Radical Intransigente (Peri), according to the latest survey by local pollster Cifra. But if the FA does not secure 50% plus one of the vote in the first round, it will have to contest a run-off with the PN, which would have to obtain the support of the other opposition parties to win the presidency. In addition, all political Chainsaw analysts agree that the FA will have a hard time in retaining the narrow con - In his 2009 campaign gressional majority that it has enjoyed since it first came to power in 2005. Lacalle Herrera said FA united that if elected he Although there are four FA pre-presidential candidates (Daniel Martínez, would “take a Carolina Cosse, Marío Bergara, and Óscar Andrade) they have all been more concerned about displaying the sort of party unity that has long eluded the chainsaw” to social opposition than with anything else. This was evident during a political rally government held in the northern department of Paysandú at the end of March to mark th spending in order to the 48 anniversary of the creation of the FA, which was attended by all four reduce the fiscal pre-candidates. deficit. Lacalle The pre-candidate that leads the race for the FA nomination according to the Herrera’s unpopular polls is Martínez, who won election as mayor of Montevideo in 2014 but has chainsaw remarks since resigned to run in the presidential primaries. He delivered a unifying speech and defined the coalition as “the unity of the various”. Eduardo marked the 2009 Bottinelli, a political analyst and director of local pollster Factum, explained election and to LatinNews that maintaining unity is in the FA’s nature. “The FA has a contributed to the political agreement of its joint members that goes beyond differences. It is FA’s victory that year. something that the PN doesn’t have yet. Each FA member has their own pro - file but there are no attacks,” Bottinelli said . This has meant that Martínez’s candidacy has not encountered too many problems. The FA pre-candidates are more interested in attacking rivals outside of the coalition. Notably, Cosse, who is currently running second in voting inten - tion polls, has been focused on criticising Luis Lacalle Pou, the PN’s presi - dential candidate in the 2014 election who is once again the favourite to win that party’s nomination. “When I hear Lacalle Pou speak of austerity I think of a chainsaw,” Cosse has said of Lacalle Pou’s pledge to tackle Uruguay’s fis - cal deficit and in reference to the remarks made in 2009 by former president Luis Alberto Lacalle Herrera (1990-1995), the PN’s 2009 presidential candi - date and Lacalle Pou’s father ( see sidebar ). In Bottinelli’s opinion, Cosse’s success will depend on her leading an aggressive campaign and securing the support of the Movimiento de Participación Popular (MPP) FA faction led by former president José Mujica (2010-2015). According to the latest polls of FA voters, Martínez has 42% support, Cosse has 21%, Andrade 14%, Bergara 8%, and there are 15% who still do not know who they will vote for. PN primary Unity is not observed in the PN primary race. “In this political force there are differences in styles, policies, and presentation,” Bottinelli comments. The Latin American Brazil & Southern Cone Report 2 April 2019 - RBS-19-04 two leading pre-candidates, Lacalle Pou and Jorge Larrañaga, have been con - ducting a hard-fought contest. The first element that divides both pre-candi - dates is Larrañaga’s campaign to collect signatures in support of holding a national referendum over the adoption of major initiatives aimed at improv - ing public security. These include the creation of a 2,000-strong national guard. Larrañaga has succeeded in collecting the requisite 400,000 signatures to hold the referendum. However, Bottinelli explains that “this has divided the party because Lacalle Pou does not agree with the proposals”. Instead Lacalle Pou, who forced President Tabaré Vázquez into a run-off in 2014, is once again focused on improving Uruguay’s economic fundamen - tals. During the formal launch of his candidacy on 30 March, Lacalle Pou pre - sented five ‘shock’ measures that his prospective government will adopt to achieve this: promoting government austerity, improving economic compet - Rented supporters itivity, improving public security, rethinking social policies to move away According to El from simple ‘welfarism’ to an approach more focused on eradicating pover - Observador , in ty, and the development of knowledge and cultural economic areas. October 2018, even But Larrañaga and Lacalle Pou are not the only contenders in the PN primar - before Satori had ies. Juan Sartori, a young millionaire who has suddenly entered the national formalised his political realm, has unexpectedly shaken the contest and the party. Sartori has seen his support in voting intention polls increase significantly in recent candidacy, his weeks. He is currently running third behind Lacalle Pou and Larrañaga, campaign was ahead of the historic PN leader and governor of Maldonado department, already paying 30 Enrique Antía. Between February and March, support for Sartori increased people Ur$15,000 by eight percentage points in the Cifra poll, from 9% to 17%. Support for Larrañaga over the period increased from 18% to 29%, while support for (US$440) a month to Lacalle Pou fell from 59% to 40%. spread Satori’s name in poor “He is leaving his rivals perplexed,” Bottinelli remarks of Sartori. While all candidates appear in the media, Satori appears to be able to use his economic neighbourhoods for clout to place advertisements in all mass communication outlets, helping to four hours a day.