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SURVEY of CURRENT BUSINESS March 1940

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SURVEY of CURRENT BUSINESS March 1940 MARCH 1940 SURVEY OF UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE:, BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMMERCEi', WASHINGTON VOLUME 20 NUMBER 3 E-x-1-r-a copies of the February 1940 issue of the Survey of Current Business ",A IS c:ents •••••• IT This issue contains a comprehensive review of busi­ v ness developments in 1939 and an analysis of the A current cyclical movement. In addition to giving a r. virtually complete statistical record of the year by months, the annual review number contains a special R tabulation showing the annual changes for recent B years in the major economic indicators. The thirty­ v nine charts included are valuable for reference pur­ poses, in view of the marked swings which charac­ I I·· terized the economic situation last year. •• .. B w This annual review number will not be reprinted. If you require additional copies, therefore, order them at once. Send remittance of 15 cents per copy to: • THE SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS, United States Gov­ v ernment Printing Office, Washington, D. C., or any District Office M of the United States Department of Commerce. B B' Annual subscriptions to the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS include a R copy of the annual review number in addition to the other monthly issues and the weekly supplement. The subscription price is $2 (domestic) and $3.50 (foreign). 0.. ,·IJJRVE_Y OF CURRENT BUSINESS Volume 20 Number 3 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE HARRY L. HOPKINS, Secretory BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMMERCE JAMES W. YOUNG, Director SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS MARCH 1940 A publication of the DIVISION OF BUSINESS REVIEW M. JOSEPH MEEHAN, Chief MILTON GILBERT. Editor TABLE OF CONTENTS Pa~e STATISTICAL DATA The business situation. , , , , . , .... , , . , . , .. , , , , .•.•.•. , . 3 New or revised series: Pa~e Material prices reflect weak business trend ..... , .... , , . 3 Table 6.-Newsprint paper consumption, 1923-39 .•. , •.... ,, ..• 10 Sharp decline in production .. , .... , ...... , .. ,., .... ,,.,....... 4 Table 7.-Department store sales-Philadelphia Federal Reserve Income payments fallin~ off................................... 5 District, unadjusted and adjusted, 1923-39 .... 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 10 Further increase in inventories ..... ....................... , . 6 Table 8.-Gold production outside U.S.S.R., 1913-39.,,., ... , 11, 12 Export trade ... ,.,,, .... , .... ,,,,., .. ,.,,,,,.,.,.,,,,,, .. , ... ,., 6 Table ?.-Corporation profits-Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 1928-38 ........ , . , , . , , . , . , , , . , ...•.................... 12 Trends in finance,.............................................. 9 Table 10.-General Motors Corporation sales, of United States CHARTS and Canadian plants, 1919-39 ............................... l2 Table H.-Automobile financin~, 1932-39 ..................... 13 Fi~ure I.-Monthly business indicators, 1929-40 .......... , . 2 Table 12.-Employment and pay rolls, by States and cities, Fi~ure 2.-New orders for selected commodities, by weeks, 1939-40 .. , 3 1928-39 .... 0 •••••••••••••• 0. 0 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 14 Fi~ure 3.-New orders received by selected manufacturin~ indus- Table 13.-Dealers' and manufacturers' stocks of leaf tobacco, tries, 1939-40 ............ , .. , , , , . , , . , . , . , ....... , . , ....... , . 3 1912-3900 ... 00 00 .. 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 ... 00 00 00 ... 00 .. 00 00.00 00... 15 Table 14.-Railway equipment shipments, 1918-39............. 16 Fj~ure 4.-Value of construction contracts awarded for manufactur- in~ buildin~s. 1936-40.. 6 Table 15.-Canadian exports (excludin~ ~old), 1926-39.......... 17 Table 16.-Bank rates to customers, 1928-39................... 17 Fi~ure 5.-Value of exports of U. S. merchandise and imports for consumption, 1937-40 .. ,., .... ,., .... , ........... ,, ......... ,... 7 Table 17.-Exports of sawmill products, 1913-39................ 18 Fi~ure 6.-Value of exports of U. S. merchandise by selected coun- Monthly business statistics ...•.....•...•. 00 .. 00 00 .•.•..•.•. 00.... 19 tries, 1938-40... .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 7 General index ....•.•.•.• 00 00 . • . • . • . • . Inside back cover Subscription price of the monthly and weekly issues of the SURVEY oF Cua&ENT BuSINESS is $2 a year. Single-copy price: Monthly, 15 cents; weekly, 5 cents. Foreign subscriptions, $3.50. Price of the 1938 Supplement is 40 cents, Make remittances only to Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D. C. 213501-40-1 1 2 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS March 1940 Monthly Business Indicators, 1929-40 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION * 140 VOLUME (1923-25•100) 130 }\ 120 I ~ \ I 110 I~ 100 'f\ I l J \ /~ /i'V 90 !V \h Ill , r 1 I 80 I i 60 I \ \ v 1'\J I I 70 : 50 I I i i 60 1\t I i I 40 0 I I I I 0 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1929 1930 1931 1932 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED* • FOREIGN TRADE * 140 140 120~~---,--.---~-4--~--+---~-+--~--+-~ 120 100~~~~--~--~~---L--~--r--7--~--+-~ 100 80~+-~~---+---+---r--~--~--1---~~+-~~-- 20 L---------------~---L--------~---L--~--0 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1929 1930 1931 1932 \933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 FACTORY EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS WHOLESALE PRICES AND COST OF LIVING 140 110 120~----~---4---+--~--~---r--1---+-------~~ ~~,------;-------~--~~---7--~---------- 100 60 20~-4---L--~----~--~--~~--~--------~ ~---------------~---------~--~--~--~~50 OL-~---L--~--L-~---L--~~~~~--~--~ L---~~~~~~L---~~~~~~~~~0 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 RETAIL SALES * STOCK PRICES ,-----------,-,----,----,------,---r---;-----;----,---------, 3 50 175 ( 1923-25 ~ 100) ! 150~k---~---.---,---,---r~-r--#---+---~--r-~ ~--,-------------------------~--+---~----~300 - 350 INDUSTRIAL COMPANIES 1 I~ 250 ~--~~~-----~--~---+~~-+~H-~~~~~'-- ISO I ~------~rt---,---F~~~L-----4---+---+---~1 --~100 25~_,---,--4-~~~~~~~~~~~-r--+-~ ~------~~~~~~~~~~~~---r--~-450 OL-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ L-~~~~~1 ~~~~~~~~~-L~~-J--~0 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1~5 1936 1939 1940 ,. ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION • THREE-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE Fi~ure I. March 1940 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 3 The Business Situation EBRUARY passed without any signs of an expan­ The monthly series on manufacturers' orders for a F sion in the basic factorR of demand which would variety of industries reveal a similarity in the pur­ bring a near-term reversal in the business downturn. chasing swings of the past 6 months. More inclusive ·while characterized by some unevenness among the data not available for plotting show deviations from various lines of manufacturing, the flow of new orders the general pattern in certain lines, though the over­ is still generally restricted and below the volume of all picture thus far in 1940 is one of declining back­ production. Industrial output has declined sharply logs as the inflow of new business has not kept pace during the past 2 months and even with this reduced with production or shipments. In some instances­ rate of activity, backlogs of unfilled orders have been foundry equipment and the metal trades in Massachu­ lowered further. As· evidenced by retail trade, con­ setts among those shown in figure 3-the flow of in- sumption has eased off from the high December posi­ tion. The latest data available, as of the end of Jan­ THOUSArN_DS_______ --, THOUSANDS OF TONS 2500 100 STEEL MALLEABLE uary; show a further substantial increase in inventories. BARRELS CASTINGS W[[~Lr AV JAN- JULY 1939, 100 300 Fi~ure 2.-New Orders for Selected Commodities, By Weeks, 1939-40 NOTE.-Relatives have been computed from the weekly data (quantity) with average weekly orders for the 30 weeks, January 1 to July 29, 1939, as 100. The data are substantially comparable for the period covered, although slight variations occur in the number of lumber mills reporting. Orders for wool yarn and wool Fi~ure 3.-New Orders Received by Selected Manufacturin~ Industries, cloth are compiled by the National Association of Wool Manufacturers, copper 1939-40. orders are sales of domestic producers as reported in the American Metal Market. and sales of slab zinc are from the Amerieau 7.inc Institute. N OTE.-The indexes of new orders (value) received by te•tile mills and metal trades in Massachusetts are compiled by the Associated Industries of Massachusetts. The other series are those regularly shown in the Survey of Current Business aud The only major factor to resist the weakening tendency represent quantity, except the indexes for "Foundry Equipment" which are on a in business so far this year is export trade; foreign value basis. shipments on a volume basis-that is, allowing for coming business compared favorably with the pre-war price changes-have risen to approximately the 1929 level. Machine tools and aircraft continue in an level and current reports indicate a continuance of exceptionally favorable position both as regards new active demand from abroad. orders and the current backlog. Foreign business The declining flow of new orders in the late months represents a significant part of unfilled orders in both of of 1939 and in January and February of this year is these industries. revealed by the data charted in figures 2 and 3. The reduction in new business has been rather general and Material Prices Reflect Weak Business Trend. it is the factor behind the decline in production expe­ Contraction of industrial purchasing has had as a rienced during the opening months of 1940. The revival corollary the weakening
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