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Estimating Earthquake Risks: the Use of Rapid Earthquake Damage Assessment System (REDAS) in the Province of Pangasinan, Philippines

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Estimating Earthquake Risks: the Use of Rapid Earthquake Damage Assessment System (REDAS) in the Province of Pangasinan, Philippines Journal of Engineering, Technology and Computing Sciences Estimating Earthquake Risks: The Use of Rapid Earthquake Damage Assessment System (REDAS) in the Province of Pangasinan, Philippines P. Silvestre a,e1, R. Talvo b,e2, Z. Vargas c,e3, D. Butedd,e4, G. Domantay e.5 aFaculty of Pangasinan State University-Sta. Maria Campus, Sta. Maria, Pangasinan, Philippines, bcFaculty of Pangasinan State University-Lingayen Campus, Lingayen, Pangasinan, Philippines d President of Pangasinan State University, Lingayen, Pangasinan, Philippines e Vice President for Academic Affairs of Pangasinan State University, Lingayen, Pangasinan, Philippines [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], e4 [email protected], [email protected] Abstract - The Philippines has 18 regions, and Pangasinan is the biggest province in Region I with a land area of 536,819 hectares. It has ahigh risk of earthquakes due to the Manila Trench. This study was conducted to estimate earthquake risk in the province with the use of Rapid Earthquake Damage Assessment System (REDAS) software. There were three barangays from Binmaley, one of the 44 towns in the province, where actual building survey was taken to represent residential, commercial and mixed commercial and residential sites which were used in creating the Pangasinandatabase for this study. Estimation of earthquake risk using REDAS was based on the 1796 historical earthquake event which has a magnitude of 6.9 and a depth of 35 km. Results show that the total estimated floor area damages in square meters are 5,902,337 and 272,064 for totaldisaster with no collapse and fulldestruction with collapse. Based on number of buildings, the total estimated complete with no collapse and complete with collapse damages are 115,694 and 5,315, respectively. The total estimated economic loss in millions is 63,069. The number of injuries is 52,382 minor injuries, 10,949 serious injuries, 459 severe injuries and 1,321 fatalities. The overall result shows that the cities of Dagupan, Urdaneta and San Carlos and the towns of Mangaldan, Malasiqui and Calasiao are the most at risk based on estimated damage regardingarea in square meters, number of buildings, economic loss, number of injuries and fatalities. Results of the study have shown that REDAS is a valuable tool to estimate the extent of damages from an earthquake. Information from the assesseddegree of damages in particular areas in the province can guide those who are involved in disaster risk reduction planning and implementation. Keywords - REDAS; earthquake risk; rapid assessment I. INTRODUCTION a term used to describe both sudden slip on a fault Natural disasters or calamities are natural and the resulting ground shaking and radiated occurrences that affect the world and cause changes seismic energy caused by the slip, or by volcanic or in the lives of people who suffer from these. magmatic activity, or other sudden stress changes in Typhoons, earthquakes, floods, landslides, tsunamis the earth. The location below the earth’s surface and volcanic eruptions are natural disasters where the earthquake starts is called the hypocenter, commonly experienced not only in the Philippines and the location directly above it on the surface of but also in other countries in the world. The extent the earth is called the epicenter of damages in life and properties among victim (http://earthquake.usgs.gov). An earthquake hazard countries vary depending on how is anything associated with an earthquake that may thegovernmentplanned and prepared for the affect the normal activities of people. emergence of such disasters [1]. An earthquake is one of the natural disasters that pose significant risk to lives and properties. It is 15 PSU JETC Silvestre et al. 1(1):15-19, DecemberJournal 2017 of Engineering, Technology and Computing Sciences ISSN This includes surface faulting, ground shaking, will occur. The quantified risk may be expressed as landslide, liquefaction, tectonic deformation, the number of elements lost, proportion of elements tsunamis, and seiches [2]. affected and monetary value of damaged property In the Philippines, the Philippine Institute of [4]. Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) of the Republic Act (RA) No. 10121 otherwise known Department of Science & Technology (DOST) is the as the “Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and mandated agency with a mission to provide timely Management Act of 2010” (PDRRM-2010) was and quality information and services for thewarning, enacted on May 27, 2010, to strengthen the disaster preparedness, and mitigation. Thisis Philippine disaster risk reduction system. It accomplished through the development and specifically provides for the development of policies application of technologies for the monitoring and and plans and the implementation of actions and accurate prediction of, and determination of areas measures about all aspects of disaster risk reduction prone to, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis and management. Thisincludesgood governance, and other related hazards, and capacity enhancement risk assessment and early warning, knowledge for comprehensive disaster risk reduction[3]. building and awareness raising, reducing underlying risk factors, and preparedness for effective response One of the strategies of PHIVOLCS to realize and early recovery [5]. their mandate is the development of a user-friendly This study used REDAS to estimate the and straightforward simulation tool or software that earthquake risk in the province of Pangasinan in case can give a rapid estimate of the possible seismic an earthquake of magnitude 6.9 and impact hazards which can be used for inferring the severity estimation in case of an 8.5 earthquake occurs. The of impacts to various elements-at-risk. This software province of Pangasinan is located in the west-central is called “Rapid Earthquake Damage Assessment area of the island of Luzon along the Lingayen Gulf. System” or REDAS. PHIVOLCS-DOST developed It is 170 kilometers north of Manila and 50 the software thru a Grant-in-Aid (GIA) from the kilometers south of Baguio City. It is considered as Department of Science and Technology (DOST). the “food basket” of Region I and the largest among REDAS aims to provide quick and near real-time the four provinces in the region both regarding simulated earthquake hazard information to disaster theland area and population. It has a land area managers which will help them in assessing the of536,819 hectares and a total population of distribution and extent of the impacts of a strong 2,956,726 based on the 2015 census on population earthquake. This could help them to decide and [5]. It consists of 44 towns, four cities and a total of prioritize the deployment of timely rescue and relief 1,364 barangays. The Philippines lies within the operations. The second objective is for the software “Ring of Fire”, a region of subduction zone to serve as a tool in convincing land use planners, volcanism surrounding the Pacific Ocean which policymakers, city and town development planners makes the country a hotspot for earthquakes and and even local government executives to consider other geological hazards. Records of earthquakes in earthquake hazards in their planning and the Philippines traced to as far back as the 1600s development efforts to ensure long-term mitigation show that tremors registering magnitude-6 and over of seismic risks. Its potential to be a risk assessment on the Richter scale have been experienced all over tool is being enhanced by improving the exposure the country. Pangasinan is prone to earthquakes, database, inclusion of a building inventory module, especially the deep-focused ones, due to the Manila incorporation of vulnerability curves and enhancing Trench and Philippine fault zone [3]. its modeling capability to address other natural On July 16, 1990, Central Luzon was rocked by hazards [3]. the strongest quake to hit the northern Philippines. The risk is the expected losses (of lives, persons The earthquake registered a magnitude 7.8 on the injured, property damaged and economic activity Richter Scale with epicenter at 15.6N and 121.0E disrupted) due to a particular hazard for a given area near the town of Rizal, Nueva Ecija. The 1990 and reference period. The unit of measure could be Luzon Earthquake was felt in many places at the value of damaged property. Risk assessment Intensity VIII (based on a modified version of the includes the examination of risks resulting from Rossi-Forel Intensity Scale of I to IX currently used natural events like flooding, extreme weather events, in the Philippines). However, some modifications earthquakes, etc. that may pose threats to may be necessary because there were isolated areas, ecosystems, animals, and people. It involves the like Dagupan City, Baguio City and the town of process of quantifying and evaluating risk and their Rizal in Nueva Ecija which seemed to have effects on economic activities and public services experienced the earthquake at Intensity IX based on exposed to hazards in a given area. Quantitative risk theobserved wave-like motion of the ground surface assessment requires calculations of the magnitude of [6] and documented theoccurrence of thrown-up the potential loss, and the probability that the loss 16 PSU JETC Silvestre et al. 1(1):15-19, DecemberJournal 2017 of Engineering, Technology and Computing Sciences ISSN boulders. Liquefaction effects of the 16 July l990 C. Risk Calculation and Loss Estimation Earthquake were particularly pronounced in the Out of the data from the three barangays, the provinces of Tarlac, Pangasinan, and La Union. An assessment of the impact of ground shaking using earlier historical earthquake event that has a high the historic 6.9 magnitude earthquake in 1796 was magnitude of 6.9 in 1796 with a longitude of estimated for the province following the REDAS 120.5045, latitude of 16.1095 and a depth of 35 steps in conducting seismic hazard assessment [7]. kmwas recorded. There are equations in the REDAS program used to Thus, to provide a significant tool for calculate risk and estimate loss due to the earthquake disaster preparedness, this study was earthquake.
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