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Socio-Cultural Groups Endorsements and Voting Patterns in the 2019 General Elections in Nigeria: Implication for 2023 General Elections

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Socio-Cultural Groups Endorsements and Voting Patterns in the 2019 General Elections in Nigeria: Implication for 2023 General Elections International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Growth Evaluation www.allmultidisciplinaryjournal.com International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Growth Evaluation ISSN: 2582-7138 Received: 02-06-2021; Accepted: 16-06-2021 www.allmultidisciplinaryjournal.com Volume 2; Issue 4; July-August 2021; Page No. 191-197 Socio-cultural groups endorsements and voting patterns in the 2019 general elections in Nigeria: Implication for 2023 general elections Barr Uzochukwu I Ozumba 1, Paul C Ezinna 2 1-2 Institute of Maritime Studies, University of Nigeria, Enugu Campus, Nigeria Corresponding Author: Barr Uzochukwu I Ozumba Abstract The study examined the nexus between socio-cultural what influence voting pattern as recorded and observed in the groups’ endorsement and counter-endorsement of 2019 general election in Nigeria. The study revealed that, the presidential candidates and voting patterns in the 2019 endorsement and counter-endorsement of presidential general elections in Nigeria and the consequent implications candidates by ethnic social cultural organizations like for 2023 general elections in Nigeria. The purpose of the Ohaneze Ndi Igbo, Afenifere of Yorubas, Arewa study was to examine if the overt endorsement and counter- Consultation Forum, Pan-Niger-Delta Forum, Southwest endorsement of presidential candidates by Ohaneze Ndi Igbo, Youth Forum, and Middle Belt Forum among others Arewa Consultative Forum, Afenefere, Middle belt Forum, significantly influence the percentage of votes each Pan-Niger-Delta Forum, Southwest Youth Forum Orhobo presidential candidate got in each geo-political zone. In the Youth Forum among others had a significant influence on the light of the above findings, the study recommended among voting pattern in such region. The research design adopted other things that, The ethnic socio-cultural organization for the study was ex-post factor research design. Secondary should stop endorsing political candidates during elections sources and nonparticipant observation were the major data because it influence the rate of ethnic motivated voting collection instruments. Data collected were analyzed using pattern as against issue based voting pattern which is ideal for table, percentage as well as qualitatively. Rational Choice a democracy that wants to develop. Theory provides a strong explanatory compass and insight to Keywords: Ethnicsocio-cultural groups, Voting Patterns, Political endorsement, Counter-endorsement, 2019 general elections, 2023 general elections Introduction Nigeria is a multicultural state and the interplay of the various ethnic groups manifest majorly during general elections. The ethnic groups in Nigeria is estimated at 250 or more, however during general elections, the struggle is majorly between and among the three major ethnic groups in Nigeria- Hausa, Igbo and Yoruba while others form alliance based on the perceived political cum economic benefits. Just like there are many ethnic groups in Nigeria, so there are many socio-cultural groups/organizations to promote and protect interest of the peoples of each ethnic group politically and economically. Some of these socio-cultural groups/organizations in Nigeria are Afenifere, Ohanaeze Ndi-Igbo, Arewa Consultative Forum, Pan-Niger- Delta Forum, Orhobo Youth Forum, Middle Belt Forum and so on. These socio-cultural groups/organizations were formed to by the various ethnic groups to protect and promote their interest, however, scholars have argued that their leaders are using it for their self-interest (Gabriel, 2018). No matter the diverse views, these groups still have significant influence in the Nigeria political atmosphere to a high extent. Their influence has manifested in their overt endorsement of presidential candidates in the general elections. Since the return of civilian rule in 1999 these groups have been at the fore front of promoting and protecting the interest of the ethnic group they represent. Different government have sought their advice for policies, projects and programmes. However, their recent covert endorsement of presidential candidates during general elections have raised a lot of controversies, opinions and views among scholars and the public as to whose interest a candidate is endorsed? The people or the leaders? The romance between socio-cultural groups and political candidates seeking public endorsement by the group have been witnessed majorly during the 2015 and intense in the 2019 general elections, and this calls for the attention of researchers as to whether these series of endorsement and counter-endorsement influence the voting pattern of the electorate. Though researches on the ethnic nature of Nigerian politics cum voting pattern are numerous and well established. For instance, Sule (2019) [24] argued that, the result of the 2019 General Election continued to reflect the ethnic voting pattern in Nigeria. 191 International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Growth Evaluation www.allmultidisciplinaryjournal.com In earlier study, Sule, Azizuddin, Sani, & Mat (2017) [25] Olayode (2015) [18] opined that general elections are generally opines that, the political culture of ethnic and regional voting portrayed with dominance of ethno- religious sentiments as inherited from the nationalists during the colonial was determinants of voting pattern and political participation transferred to the present era and it seems to be continuous across Nigeria. In the presidential election, the president and increasing geometrically from one general election to vice president elect received almost 90 per cent of their votes another. Little effort has been given to the influence of socio- on the basis of ethno-regional identity. Similarly, the cultural group endorsement on the voting patterns of incumbent president received en masse votes from his ethno- electorates especially in the general elections characterized regional zones”. This has been the culture in Nigerian by constant covert endorsement and counter-endorsement by political theatrical arena where votes are allotted according to socio-cultural groups in Nigeria, which have the tendency to ethnic allegiance and religious sentiments by each particular threaten the united Nigeria if not assessed and controlled. section or group in the country where their candidate emerge 2019 general election witnessed an overt display of political irrespective of whether he will win through their votes or he endorsements and counter-endorsements which some time will loss. Metumara (2010) [16] postulated that the voting led to violence among the leaders of the socio-cultural pattern in Nigeria is affected by an amalgam of rival ethnic groups. There is still paucity of empirical study on the groups that were set against each other in a fierce rivalry in a influence of socio-cultural group endorsement on the voting struggle for power and competition for control of scarce pattern of Nigerian electorates during general elections, and resources and this has been visible in the political processes. the consequent implications for 2023 general elections. Onapajo (2012) [21] believed that Nigerians are more loyal to From the forgoing, the study raised the question; does the ethnic group than state. Election in Nigeria usually has the overt endorsement and counter-endorsement of presidential voting pattern of ethnicity, religion and regionalism which is candidates during general elections in Nigeria influence the part of the issues that are bedeviling the successful choice of voting pattern? To answer this question, this paper examined good leaders in the country (Abdullahi, 2015) [1]. According the interplay and series of endorsement and counter- to Lawal (2017) [13] the central argument is that the votes cast endorsement in the 2019 general elections in Nigeria by in the presidential election did not reveal a significant change socio-cultural organizations/groups like Ohanaeze Ndigbo, in voting patterns along ethnic, religious and geospatial lines. Northern Leaders Forum, Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), A majority of voters in the largely Muslim-dominated Afenifere, Pan-Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF) and Orhobo Hausa/Fulani ethnic group of Northern Nigeria voted for the Youth Forum among others, and how these influenced the APC presidential candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, a outcome of the election, must especially the voting pattern of northerner and Muslim from Katsina state. A majority on the the electorates within such ethnic voters. Also, to predict the South voted for the incumbent President, Goodluck Ebele implications of such influence on the 2023 general elections Jonathan, and a Christian from Balyelsa in the South-South that is already causing debate whether political power will be of Nigeria who led the PDP. Beyond the significance of zoned to the south or remain in the North. A study of this regionalism, ethno-religious bias weighed heavily in support nature is urgently required so as to understand the politics for the two main candidates across much of Nigeria’s 36 behind the overt endorsement and counter-endorsement of states, thus rein- forcing the argument that amongst other presidential candidates among socio-cultural groups. factors, the politicization of ethnicity is important in understanding why people merely vote in Africa but do not Ethnicity and voting pattern in Nigerian general elections choose (Ake, 1996) [3]. Also, Eifert, Miguel, and Posner No doubt, Nnoli remains one of the leading scholars on (2013) [9] have shown that ‘close’ elections in Africa
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