How to Read the Wealth of Nations (Or Why the Division of Labor Is
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Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century
Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century § Adrien Auclert∗ Hannes Malmbergy Frédéric Martenetz Matthew Rognlie August 2021 Abstract We use a sufficient statistic approach to quantify the general equilibrium effects of population aging on wealth accumulation, expected asset returns, and global im- balances. Combining population forecasts with household survey data from 25 coun- tries, we measure the compositional effect of aging: how a changing age distribution affects wealth-to-GDP, holding the age profiles of assets and labor income fixed. In a baseline overlapping generations model this statistic, in conjunction with cross- sectional information and two standard macro parameters, pins down general equi- librium outcomes. Since the compositional effect is positive, large, and heterogeneous across countries, our model predicts that population aging will increase wealth-to- GDP ratios, lower asset returns, and widen global imbalances through the twenty-first century. These conclusions extend to a richer model in which bequests, individual savings, and the tax-and-transfer system all respond to demographic change. ∗Stanford University, NBER and CEPR. Email: [email protected]. yUniversity of Minnesota. Email: [email protected]. zStanford University. Email: [email protected]. §Northwestern University and NBER. Email: [email protected]. For helpful comments, we thank Rishabh Aggarwal, Mark Aguiar, Anmol Bhandari, Olivier Blanchard, Maricristina De Nardi, Charles Goodhart, Nezih Guner, Fatih Guvenen, Daniel Harenberg, Martin Holm, Gregor Jarosch, Patrick Kehoe, Patrick Kiernan, Pete Klenow, Dirk Krueger, Kieran Larkin, Ellen McGrat- tan, Kurt Mitman, Ben Moll, Serdar Ozkan, Christina Patterson, Alessandra Peter, Jim Poterba, Jacob Rob- bins, Richard Rogerson, Ananth Seshadri, Isaac Sorkin, Kjetil Storesletten, Ludwig Straub, Amir Sufi, Chris Tonetti, David Weil, Arlene Wong, Owen Zidar and Nathan Zorzi. -
Global Wealth Inequality
EC11CH05_Zucman ARjats.cls August 7, 2019 12:27 Annual Review of Economics Global Wealth Inequality Gabriel Zucman1,2 1Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA; email: [email protected] 2National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA Annu. Rev. Econ. 2019. 11:109–38 Keywords First published as a Review in Advance on inequality, wealth, tax havens May 13, 2019 The Annual Review of Economics is online at Abstract economics.annualreviews.org This article reviews the recent literature on the dynamics of global wealth https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics- Annu. Rev. Econ. 2019.11:109-138. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org inequality. I first reconcile available estimates of wealth inequality inthe 080218-025852 United States. Both surveys and tax data show that wealth inequality has in- Access provided by University of California - Berkeley on 08/26/19. For personal use only. Copyright © 2019 by Annual Reviews. creased dramatically since the 1980s, with a top 1% wealth share of approx- All rights reserved imately 40% in 2016 versus 25–30% in the 1980s. Second, I discuss the fast- JEL codes: D31, E21, H26 growing literature on wealth inequality across the world. Evidence points toward a rise in global wealth concentration: For China, Europe, and the United States combined, the top 1% wealth share has increased from 28% in 1980 to 33% today, while the bottom 75% share hovered around 10%. Recent studies, however, may underestimate the level and rise of inequal- ity, as financial globalization makes it increasingly hard to measure wealth at the top. -
What Makes a Complex Society Complex?
What Makes a Complex Society Complex? The Dresden Codex. Public domain. Supporting Questions 1. How did the Maya use writing to represent activities in their culture? 2. What did the Aztecs do to master their watery environment? 3. Why were roads important to the Inca Empire? Supporting Question 1 Featured Source Source A: Mark Pitts, book exploring Maya writing, Book 1: Writing in Maya Glyphs: Names, Places & Simple Sentences—A Non-Technical Introduction to Maya Glyphs (excerpt), 2008 THE BASICS OF ANCIENT MAYA WRITING Maya writing is composed of various signs and symbol. These signs and symbols are often called ‘hieroglyphs,’ or more simply ‘glyphs.’ To most of us, these glyphs look like pictures, but it is often hard to say what they are pictures of…. Unlike European languages, like English and Spanish, the ancient Maya writing did not use letters to spell words. Instead, they used a combination of glyphs that stood either for syllables, or for whole words. We will call the glyphs that stood for syllables ‘syllable glyphs,’ and we’ll call the glyphs that stood for whole words ‘logos.’ (The technically correct terms are ‘syllabogram’ and ‘logogram.’) It may seem complicated to use a combination of sounds and signs to make words, but we do the very same thing all the time. For example, you have seen this sign: ©iStock/©jswinborne Everyone knows that this sign means “one way to the right.” The “one way” part is spelled out in letters, as usual. But the “to the right” part is given only by the arrow pointing to the right. -
A WILPF Guide to Feminist Political Economy
A WILPF GUIDE TO FEMINIST POLITICAL ECONOMY Brief for WILPF members Table of Contents Advancing WILPF’s approach to peace . 2 Political economy as a tool . 4 A feminist twist to understanding political economy . 4 Feminist political economy in the context of neoliberal policies . 5 Gendered economy of investments . 7 Feminist political economy analysis - How does WILPF do it? . 9 What questions do we need to ask? . 10 Case study . 12 © 2018 Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom August 2018 A User Guide to Feminist Political Economy 2nd Edition 13 pp. Authors: Nela Porobic Isakovic Editors: Nela Porobic Isakovic, Nina Maria Hansen, Cover photo Madeleine Rees, Gorana Mlinarevic Brick wall painting of faces by Design: Nadia Joubert Oliver Cole (@oliver_photographer) www.wilpf.org on Unsplash.com 1 Advancing WILPF’s approach to peace HOW CAN FEMINIST UNDERSTANDING OF POLITICAL ECONOMY IN CONFLICT OR POST-CONFLICT CONTEXT HELP ADVANCE WILPF’S APPROACH TO PEACE? Political economy makes explicit linkages between political, economic and social factors. It is concerned with how politics can influence the economy. It looks at the access to, and distribution of wealth and power in order to understand why, by whom, and for whom certain decisions are taken, and how they affect societies – politically, economically and socially. It combines different sets of academic disciplines, most notably political science, economy and sociology, but also law, history and other disciplines. By using feminist political economy, WILPF seeks to understand the broader context of war and post-conflict recovery, and to deconstruct seemingly fixed and unchangeable economic, social, and political parameters. -
ICONS and SIGNS from the ANCIENT HARAPPA Amelia Sparavigna ∗ Dipartimento Di Fisica, Politecnico Di Torino C.So Duca Degli Abruzzi 24, Torino, Italy
ICONS AND SIGNS FROM THE ANCIENT HARAPPA Amelia Sparavigna ∗ Dipartimento di Fisica, Politecnico di Torino C.so Duca degli Abruzzi 24, Torino, Italy Abstract Written words probably developed independently at least in three places: Egypt, Mesopotamia and Harappa. In these densely populated areas, signs, icons and symbols were eventually used to create a writing system. It is interesting to see how sometimes remote populations are using the same icons and symbols. Here, we discuss examples and some results obtained by researchers investigating the signs of Harappan civilization. 1. Introduction The debate about where and when the written words were originated is still open. Probably, writing systems developed independently in at least three places, Egypt, Mesopotamia and Harappa. In places where an agricultural civilization flourished, the passage from the use of symbols to a true writing system was early accomplished. It means that, at certain period in some densely populated area, signs and symbols were eventually used to create a writing system, the more complex society requiring an increase in recording and communication media. Signs, symbols and icons were always used by human beings, when they started carving wood or cutting stones and painting caves. We find signs on drums, textiles and pottery, and on the body itself, with tattooing. To figure what symbols used the human population when it was mainly composed by small groups of hunter-gatherers, we could analyse the signs of Native Americans. Our intuition is able to understand many of these old signs, because they immediately represent the shapes of objects and animals. It is then quite natural that signs and icons, born among people in a certain region, turn out to be used by other remote populations. -
The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith
an INQUIRY into the Nature and Causes of the — Books I, II, III, IV and V — Wealth of Nations Adam Smith p q xΜεταLibriy Copyright © 2007 ΜεταLibri this digital edition ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this digital edition may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form, or by any means, eletronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior consent of the copyright holder. ΜεταLibri http://metalibri.incubadora.fapesp.br Amsterdam • Lausanne • Melbourne Milan • New York • São Paulo 29th May 2007 IN this edition references are made to corresponding pages of the best mod- ern edition of the WealthEditorial of Nations: the Note second volume of The Glasgow Edition of the Works and Correspondence of Adam Smith [1]. These refer- ences are printed as margin notes. For example, ‘G.ed.p26’ means ‘page 26 of the Glasgow Edition’. Smith’s own footnotes are marked with ‘[Smith]’ in bold face just before the footnote. Paragraph number are printed inside brackets on the left margin and the numbering restarts at the beginning of every section. References to this edition can be made in this way: Smith, Adam. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Edited by S. M. Soares. MetaLibri Digital Library, 29th May 2007. SÁLVIO MARCELO SOARES Lausanne, 29th May 2007 [email protected] CONTENTS Editorial Note iii Advertisement to the Third Edition 2 Advertisement to the Fourth Edition 3 Introduction and Plan of the Work 4 BOOK I Of The Causes of Improvement in the Productive Powers -
Financial Integration and International Business Cycle Co-Movement: Wealth Effects Vs
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper No. 89 http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/institute/wpapers/2011/0089.pdf Financial Integration and International Business Cycle Co-movement: Wealth Effects vs. Balance Sheet Effects* J. Scott Davis Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas September 2011 Revised: August 2012 Abstract Different types of international financial integration have different effects on cross-country business cycle co-movement. International business cycle transmission through financial integration occurs through the wealth and balance sheet effects. The balance sheet effect leads to business cycle convergence, but the wealth effect leads to divergence. Using a cross- sectional regression, this paper shows that cross-border credit market integration (debt) has a positive effect on co-movement, implying that the balance sheet effect is the main conduit for international transmission through credit markets. However, cross-border capital market integration (equity) has a negative effect, implying that the wealth effect is the main channel for international transmission through capital markets. By distinguishing between wealth and balance sheet effects, this paper resolves many discrepancies between some key empirical and theoretical findings in the open economy macro literature, between different studies in the theoretical literature, and between empirical studies that use a cross-sectional regression and those employing panel data. JEL codes: E30, E44, F40, G15 * Scott Davis, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 2200 N. Pearl Street, Dallas, TX 75201. 214-922-5124. [email protected]. This paper previously circulated under the title “Financial Integration and International Business Cycle Co-movement: The Role of Balance Sheets.” I would like to thank Jean Imbs and participants at the Banque de France, CEPR conference on “The Financial Crisis: Lessons for International Macroeconomics” for many helpful comments and suggestions. -
240 Years of the Wealth of Nations 240 Anos De a Riqueza Das Nações
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0103-6351/3743 240 years of The Wealth of Nations 240 anos de A Riqueza das Nações Maria Pia Paganelli Trinity University Abstract Resumo Why should we read a book printed 240 Por que deveríamos ler um livro publicado há years ago? The book is old. Our circum- 240 anos? Trata-se de um livro antigo. Nossas stances and institutions are different. Its ex- circunstâncias e instituições são diferentes. Seus amples are dated. Its policies are irrelevant exemplos são datados. Suas recomendações de today. Its economic theories are full of mis- política são irrelevantes hoje. Suas teorias econô- takes. Even its political ideology is ambigu- micas estão repletas de erros. Mesmo a sua ideo- ous. So, why bother reading this old book? logia política é ambígua. Então, por que se dar ao trabalho de ler este velho livro? Keywords Palavras-chave Adam Smith; Wealth of Nations; wealth; Adam Smith; A Riqueza das Nações; riqueza; growth; justice. crescimento; justiça. JEL Codes B12; O10. Códigos JEL B12; O10. v.27 n.2 p.7-19 2017 Nova Economia� 7 Paganelli “Convictions are more dangerous enemies of truth than lies” Friedrich Nietzsche Why would anybody care to read a book that is almost two and a half centuries old? Better (or worse), why would anybody refer to – and yet not read – a book that is well over two centuries old? Or maybe I should ask: why should anybody read a book that is well over two centuries old? Age aside, the Wealth of Nations is also in many ways a dated book. -
Private Property Rights, Economic Freedom, and Well Being
Working Paper 19 Private Property Rights, Economic Freedom, and Well Being * BENJAMIN POWELL * Benjamin Powell is a PhD Student at George Mason University and a Social Change Research Fellow with the Mercatus Center in Arlington, VA. He was an AIER Summer Fellow in 2002. The ideas presented in this research are the author’s and do not represent official positions of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Private Property Rights, Economic Freedom, and Well Being The question of why some countries are rich, and others are poor, is a question that has plagued economists at least since 1776, when Adam Smith wrote An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Some countries that have a wealth of human and natural resources remain in poverty (in Sub-Saharan Africa for example) while other countries with few natural resources (like Hong Kong) flourish. An understanding of how private property and economic freedom allow people to coordinate their activities while engaging in trades that make them both people better off, gives us an indication of the institutional environment that is necessary for prosperity. Observation of the countries around the world also indicates that those countries with an institutional environment of secure property rights and highPAPER degrees of economic freedom have achieved higher levels of the various measures of human well being. Property Rights and Voluntary Interaction The freedom to exchange allows individuals to make trades that both parties believe will make them better off. Private property provides the incentives for individuals to economize on resource use because the user bears the costs of their actions. -
Income Inequality and the Business Cycle: a Threshold Cointegration Approach ♣
INCOME INEQUALITY AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE: A THRESHOLD COINTEGRATION APPROACH ♣ Gary A. Hoover University of Alabama Daniel C. Giedeman Grand Valley State University Sel Dibooglu♦ University of Missouri St Louis March 2009 Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of various socio-economic variables on various cohorts of the income distribution. We use asymmetric cointegration tests to show that unemployment and immigration shocks have real impacts on income inequality. In addition, using threshold test results we are able to show that positive and negative shocks to the economy do not have symmetric effects nor do the impacts of these shocks impact income quintiles uniformly. Keywords: Income inequality, Granger Causality, Asymmetric Cointegration JEL: I32, I39 ♣ The authors wish to thank Junsoo Lee and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. The usual caveats regarding remaining errors apply. ♦ Corresponding author: University of Missouri St Louis, Department of Economics, One University Blvd., St Louis, MO 63121, Email: [email protected], Phone: 314 516 5530; Fax: 314 516 5352 1. INTRODUCTION Beginning with the seminal work of Kuznets (1955) many researchers have endeavored to investigate the nature of the relationship between economic growth and income inequality. The Kuznets hypothesis posited that the functional relationship between inequality and economic development had an inverted “U” shape. Kuznets speculated that inequality would initially be positively correlated with economic development but that the relationship between economic growth and inequality would become negative at higher levels of development. Results supporting this hypothesis typically come from the use of cross-sectional country-specific data. Some recent researchers dispute the Kuznets hypothesis such as Bruno et al. -
The Missing Wealth of Nations: Are Europe and the U.S
THE MISSING WEALTH OF NATIONS: ARE EUROPE AND THE U.S. NET DEBTORS OR NET CREDITORS?* Gabriel Zucman This article shows that official statistics substantially underestimate the net foreign asset positions of rich countries because they fail to capture most of the assets held by households in offshore tax havens. Drawing on a unique Swiss data set and exploiting systematic anomalies in countries’ portfolio investment positions, I find that around 8% of the global financial wealth of households is held in tax havens, three-quarters of which goes unrecorded. On the basis of plausible assumptions, accounting for unrecorded assets turns the eurozone, officially the world’s second largest net debtor, into a net creditor. It Downloaded from also reduces the U.S. net debt significantly. The results shed new light on global imbalances and challenge the widespread view that after a decade of poor-to-rich capital flows, external assets are now in poor countries and debts in rich countries. I provide concrete proposals to improve international statis- tics. JEL Codes: F32, H26, H87. http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/ I. Introduction There are two puzzles in international investment statistics. The first is a set of statistical anomalies. At the global level, liabilities tend to exceed assets: the world as a whole is a net debtor (Lane and Milesi-Ferretti 2007). Similarly, the global bal- ance of payments shows that more investment income is paid than received each year. Since the problem was identified in by guest on July 6, 2013 the 1970s, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has commis- sioned a number of reports to investigate its causes, and national statistical agencies have put considerable resources into improv- ing their data. -
THE NEOLIBERAL THEORY of SOCIETY Simon Clarke
THE NEOLIBERAL THEORY OF SOCIETY Simon Clarke The ideological foundations of neo-liberalism Neoliberalism presents itself as a doctrine based on the inexorable truths of modern economics. However, despite its scientific trappings, modern economics is not a scientific discipline but the rigorous elaboration of a very specific social theory, which has become so deeply embedded in western thought as to have established itself as no more than common sense, despite the fact that its fundamental assumptions are patently absurd. The foundations of modern economics, and of the ideology of neoliberalism, go back to Adam Smith and his great work, The Wealth of Nations. Over the past two centuries Smith’s arguments have been formalised and developed with greater analytical rigour, but the fundamental assumptions underpinning neoliberalism remain those proposed by Adam Smith. Adam Smith wrote The Wealth of Nations as a critique of the corrupt and self-aggrandising mercantilist state, which drew its revenues from taxing trade and licensing monopolies, which it sought to protect by maintaining an expensive military apparatus and waging costly wars. The theories which supported the state conceived of exchange as a ‘zero-sum game’, in which one party’s gain was the other party’s loss, so the maximum benefit from exchange was to be extracted by force and fraud. The fundamental idea of Smith’s critique was that the ‘wealth of the nation’ derived not from the accumulation of wealth by the state, at the expense of its citizens and foreign powers, but from the development of the division of labour. The division of labour developed as a result of the initiative and enterprise of private individuals and would develop the more rapidly the more such individuals were free to apply their enterprise and initiative and to reap the corresponding rewards.