Metso Outotec Corporation 12 April 2021 Update Following Ratings Affirmation

CORPORATES

CREDIT OPINION Metso Outotec Corporation 12 April 2021 Update following ratings affirmation

Update Summary The Baa2 long-term issuer rating of Metso Outotec reflects as positives its (1) good market position and comprehensive solutions offering within the mid- and downstream mining and aggregates value chain; (2) high share of aftermarket sales, amounting to over 50% of 2020 revenue pro forma for the merger, which should support relative stability of profitability RATINGS through the cycle; (3) diversified revenue base in terms of both geography and commodity; Metso Outotec Corporation (4) significant exposure to aggregates, a sector that historically has behaved somewhat Domicile Finland countercyclical to the traditional mining sector; and (5) public commitment to maintaining Long Term Rating Baa2 an investment-grade rating and deleveraging during the next two years. Type LT Issuer Rating - Fgn Curr However, the rating is constrained by the company’s: (1) high leverage for the assigned rating, Outlook Stable with a pro forma Moody’s-adjusted debt/EBITDA of 3.0x for 2020, although we expect it to Please see the ratings section at the end of this report decrease toward the 2.0x area during the next 12-18 months through a combination of debt for more information. The ratings and outlook shown prepayments and profitability improvements; (2) somewhat narrow end-market exposure, reflect information as of the publication date. with over 60% of revenue derived from the highly cyclical mining sector; (3) relatively low profitability compared with that of its peers within the rating category - mostly driven by its weak Metals segment, which is likely to be turned around over the next few years and (4) Contacts risks related to the complex project business. Daniel Harlid +46. 8.5179.1271 VP-Senior Analyst Exhibit 1 [email protected] Leverage expected to come down toward 2.0x within the next 12-18 months Moody's-adjusted debt / EBITDA

Christian Hendker, +49.69.70730.735 3.5x CFA 3.0x 3.0x 2.9x Associate Managing Director 2.5x [email protected] 2.0x-2.4x

2.0x Yunxin Wang +46.8.5179.1273 Associate Analyst 1.5x [email protected] 1.0x

0.5x

CLIENT SERVICES 0.0x 2019PF 2020PF 12-18 months forward view Americas 1-212-553-1653 Forecast is the view of Moody's Investors Service and not the issuer. Source: Moody's Investors Service Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077 Japan 81-3-5408-4100 EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

Credit strengths » One of the largest companies within mid- and downstream minerals processing equipment and services globally

» Large installed base of mining equipment, with high exposure to very profitable sales of wear and spare parts

» Versatile exposure in terms of commodity, with high-growth commodities such as battery metals generating 40% of sales

» Expanding aggregates business, which helps the company shield itself from the volatile traditional mining sector

Credit challenges » Somewhat narrow end-market exposure

» Relatively low Moody’s-adjusted EBITA margin of 10% compared with that of its peers

» High leverage for the current Baa2 rating, although expected to decrease

» Struggling Metals segment, although currently undergoing a restructuring and turnaround process that should yield results already in 2021

Rating outlook The stable outlook reflects Moody’s expectation that Metso Outotec, through a combination of debt prepayments and profitability- enhancing initiatives, shows a Moody’s-adjusted debt / EBITDA of 2.0x-2.4x and FCF / debt of 5%-10% in the next 12-18 months. Furthermore, the outlook incorporates the expectation of a balanced financial policy, weighing shareholder remuneration against its commitment of maintaining an investment-grade rating. Factors that could lead to an upgrade » Sustainable improvements of the Moody’s-adjusted EBITA margin toward 13%

» Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA close to or below 2.0x on a sustained basis

» Moody's-adjusted FCF/debt at or above 10% on a sustained basis

Factors that could lead to a downgrade » Moody's-adjusted EBITA margin decreasing below 10%

» Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA above 3.0x

» A prolonged period of negative free cash flow generation

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 12 April 2021 Metso Outotec Corporation: Update following ratings affirmation MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

Key indicators

Exhibit 2 Metso Outotec Corporation

12/31/2019 PF 12/31/2020 PF Moody's 12-18 months forward view

Revenue (USD Billion) $4.9 $4.6 $4.9 - $5.0 EBITA Margin 9.1% 10.2% 11.5% - 12.0% EBITA / Interest Expense 6.2x 8.1x 14.5x - 14.9x Debt / EBITDA 2.9x 3.0x 2.0x - 2.4x Retained Cash Flow / Net Debt 22.4% 17.9% 28% - 33% Free Cash Flow / Debt -14.7% 9.5% 5% - 10%

Forward view is the view of Moody's and not the issuer. Source: Moody's Financial Metrics™ and Moody’s Investors Service Estimates

Profile Headquartered in Helsinki, Finland, Metso Outotec Corporation is manufacturer and service provider within the mid- and downstream value chain of minerals processing. Pro forma for the full year 2020, the group generated revenue of €3.9 billion and an adjusted EBITA €398 million.

Exhibit 3 Exhibit 4 Revenue per region Revenue per segment As of 2020 As of 2020

Metals APAC 11% 20% Aggregates 26%

EMEA 41%

Americas 39% Minerals 63%

Numbers are pro forma. Numbers are pro forma. Source: Company presentation Source: Company presentation

Detailed credit considerations Comprehensive offering to the mid- and downstream value chain of minerals processing The partial demerger of Metso Corporation and combination of Metso's Minerals business and Outotec was completed on 30 June 2020. By combining Metso Minerals and Outotec, the two groups' different strengths have created a company with a presence in all the stages of the mid- and downstream value chain of minerals processing. The improved market position of the combined group is a positive driver for the Baa2 rating. The value chain includes materials handling, comminution, separation and refining. The value chain is rather fragmented, with only Danish-based FLSmidth having the same coverage as Metso Outotec (although somewhat narrower), and Terex Corporation (B1 Stable), Weir Group Plc (The) (Baa3 Negative) and CITIC Group Corporation (A3 stable) in foremost comminution. We think having a comprehensive offering for mining and aggregates customers is attractive because of the increasing integration between equipment and services, not at least through digitalisation where we understand Mesto Outotec has a strong offering. The group exhibits a good and balanced geographic diversification, supported by company’s extensive global service

3 12 April 2021 Metso Outotec Corporation: Update following ratings affirmation MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

network and large installed base. This effectively provides barriers to entry, enabling customer proximity and making it very difficult for new incumbents to replicate the group's coverage.

Volatility in the mining sector is balanced by exposure to the more stable aggregates sector and aftermarket Metso Outotec’s exposure to the mining sector makes it vulnerable to the capital spending cycle of the global mining companies, which from time to time can show significant swings, constraining the rating. This was evident in both companies' operating performance during the commodity downturn from 2012 to 2016, with both sales and profit contracting, materially so for Outotec. For Metso Minerals, its large aftermarket exposure and outsourcing of mining equipment manufacturing has shielded the division’s profitability and revenue somewhat from the severest downturns. Outotec’s Minerals division, however, has proved less resilient, with its reported EBITA margin contracting sharply and that troughed at around 4% in 2016 on a trailing 12-month basis.

One of the other factors behind Metso Mineral's stronger performance is its exposure to aggregates, a much more stable sector because of its close links to governmental infrastructure spending, which is countercyclical in nature (governments tend to spend more during tougher economic times). In 2020, aggregates represented 26% of the Metso Outotec's revenue.

Metals segment still underperforming but turnaround initiated In October 2020, the company announced its decision to divest its Recycling business, which consists of equipment and services for metals and waste recycling. In 2020, it had a turnover of €125 million and a breakeven operating result. The remaining metals segment is now undergoing a comprehensive turnaround, where its business scope and structure is being addressed. A successful turnaround would be credit positive as the division's €380 million of revenue contributed negatively by €24 million to group operating profit in 2020.

Exhibit 5 Metals division has had a relatively volatile operating performance during the last two years

Revenue Reported operating margin (RHS) 160 25.0%

137 20.0% 140 121 115 15.0% 120 107 110 102 10.0% 100 86 5.0% 79 80 0.0%

-5.0% 60 -10.0% 40 -15.0% 20 -20.0%

0 -25.0% Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020

Figures for the segment excludes the Recycling business as it has been classified as discontinued operations Source: Company annual report 2020

The metals segment has historically been a rather diverse set of technologies under the Outotec umbrella, struggling to sustainably remaining profitable since 2014. We understand that the volatile performance has been driven partly by the fact that the company has historically taken on construction risks in many projects. We believe that management's dedication to turnaround the business to a more stable one should yield results already during 2021.

Good performance in 2020 despite COVID-19 The company's revenue and profitability held up relatively well during 2020, given the COVID-19 induced lockdowns. On a pro forma basis, orders and sales declined organically by 5% and 4% respectively compared with 2019. The company's EBITA margin (adjusted for restructuring, integration and transaction costs), decreased to 11.5% from 12.6% in the same period. As seen in Exhibits 6 and 7, the impact from the coronavirus pandemic was mixed, with the Metals division being most affected and Minerals actually increasing profitability. That being said, all divisions reported double digit organic growth rates in order intake during the fourth quarter, where the Metals division grew its order intake significantly ending 2020 with an unchanged order backlog compared to 2019.

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Exhibit 6 Exhibit 7 Impact from COVID-19 was more severe for Aggregates and Metals Minerals segment solid profitability held up group EBITA margin divisions during 2020 Revenue Growth EBITA adjusted margin (per company definition)

Q4 2020 FY2020 2019 2020 16.0% 5% 14.4% 2% 13.3% 0% 14.0% 12.6% 12.1% 12.2% 0% 11.4% 12.0% 10.8% -2% -5% 10.0% -4% -4% 8.0% -10% -10% 6.0%

-15% 4.0%

2.0% -20% -18% 0.0%

-25% -2.0% -0.8% Aggregates Minerals Metals Total -26% -30% Source: Company annual report 2020 Minerals Aggregates Metals Total

Source: Company annual report 2020

The company aims to realise cost synergies of €120 million on an annual run rate basis end of 2021 and also extract revenue synergies of €150 million. We note positively that goal of reaching €50 million by the end of the fourth quarter of 2020 was exceeded by €15 million. Although we have taken a conservative approach on incorporating revenue synergies, expected cost benefits of the merger seem to be reasonable and thus achievable. The resulting increase in profitability, should all synergies be realised, will help the company to achieve its goal of generating an adjusted EBITA margin exceeding 15% over the cycle.

Debt prepayments and balanced financial policy should yield double digit FCF / Debt The company was able to release €100 million of working capital during 2020 - a typical pattern in the manufacturing industry is working capital release when sales decline - which was part of the driver to the decent FCF / debt ratio of 9.5% in the midst of a global recession. Given the large order intake during the fourth quarter, we expect a built up of working capital of €80-€90 million this year. Adding the planned dividend payment of €166 million, we foresee at FCF / debt ratio of 4%-5%. Although this is relatively low, we expect the company's ambition to deleverage its balance sheet over the next two years and its financial policy to pay out at least 50% of net profits in dividends to result in a double digit FCF / debt ratio from 2022 and onward. That being said, the company operates in inherently cyclical end markets and therefore, the assigned rating incorporates some volatility in both profitability and free cash flow generation on an annual basis. Liquidity analysis Moody's views Metso Outotec's liquidity to be strong, with sources including cash on balance sheet of €537 million as of December 31, 2020. The company has access to revolving credit facilities (RCF) with a total available amount of €690 million. Furthermore, Moody's expects funds from operations (FFO) to amount to €400 - €450 million in 2021. Main uses include capital expenditure spend of 1.5%-2.0% of sales and working capital outflows of €80 - €90 million in 2021. Environmental, social and governance considerations Metso Outotec will over time see the benefits of the low carbon transition, as it has exposure to metals such as copper, lithium and nickel. In addition, its mining customers are subject to increasing environmental regulations. Meeting more stringent hurdles will require more new mine investment, which is expected to benefit Metso Outotec. On the other hand, increased environmental regulations for the mining industry will require the company to develop products that facilitates the transition to a lower carbon economy. Failure to do so could weaken the company's competitive position.

With respect to governance, the financial policy of the company includes a dividend policy as well as a public commitment to maintaining an investment grade rating.

5 12 April 2021 Metso Outotec Corporation: Update following ratings affirmation MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

Rating methodology and scorecard factors The principal methodology used in this rating was the Global Manufacturing Companies rating methodology, published in March 2020. The scorecard-indicated outcome of the forward views is in line with the actual rating. This reflects the expectation of credit metrics improvements over the next 12-18 months which are factored into the rating. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Exhibit 8 Rating factors Metso Outotec Corporation

Current Moody's 12-18 Month Forward View Manufacturing Industry Scorecard [1][2] PF 12/31/2020 As of 03/31/2021 [3]

Factor 1 : Scale (20%) Measure Score Measure Score a) Revenue (USD Billion) $4.6 Ba $4.9 - $5.0 Ba Factor 2 : Business Profile (25%) a) Business Profile Baa Baa Baa Baa Factor 3 : Profitability and Efficiency (5%) a) EBITA Margin 10.2% Ba 11.5% - 12.0% Ba Factor 4 : Leverage and Coverage (35%) a) Debt / EBITDA 3.0x Baa 2.0x - 2.4x Baa b) Retained Cash Flow / Net Debt 17.9% Ba 28% - 33% Baa c) Free Cash Flow / Debt 9.5% Ba 5% - 10% Ba d) EBITA / Interest Expense 8.1x Baa 14.5x - 14.9x Aa Factor 5 : Financial Policy (15%) a) Financial Policy Baa Baa Baa Baa Rating: a) Scorecard-Indicated Outcome Baa3 Baa2 b) Actual Rating Assigned Baa2

[1] All ratios are based on ‘Adjusted’ financial data and incorporate Moody’s Global Standard Adjustments for Non-Financial Corporations. [2] As of 12/31/2020; Source: Moody's Financial Metrics™ [3] This represents Moody’s forward view, not the view of the issuer; and unless noted in the text, does not incorporate significant acquisitions and divestitures Sources: Moody's Financial Metrics™ and Moody’s Investors Service

Appendix

Exhibit 9 Peer comparison

Metso Outotec Weir Group Plc (The) SKF AB Terex Corporation Baa2/STA Baa3/NEG Baa1/STA B1/STA

PF PF 12-18 month FYE LTM 12-18 month FYE FYE 12-18 month FYE FYE 12-18 month Dec-19 Dec-20 forward view Dec-19 Jun-20 forward view Dec-19 Dec-20 forward view Dec-19 Dec-20 forward view

Revenue ($, bn) $4.9 $4.6 $4.9 - $5.0 $3.4 $3.1 $2.7 - $3.3 $9.1 $8.2 $8.0 - $8.9 $4.4 $3.1 $3.8 EBITA Margin 9.1% 10.2% 11.5% - 12.0% 11.9% 11.3% 6.6% - 9.6% 11.9% 10.0% 7.4% - 10.1% 8.9% 2.7% 4.5% EBITA / Interest Expense 6.2x 8.1x 14.5x - 14.9x 6.1x 5.1x 2.7x - 4.8x 9.9x 11.9x 7.5x - 11.3x 3.8x 1.1x 2.6x Debt / EBITDA 2.9x 3.0x 2.0x - 2.4x 3.8x 4.7x 4.4x - 6.9x 2.5x 3.1x 3.2x - 4.2x 3.3x 8.6x 4.5x

Retained Cash Flow / Net Debt 22.4% 17.9% 28% - 33% 14.8% 18.1% 8.8% - 15.6% 28.7% 29.6% 22.2% - 35.7% 25.6% 18.6% 18.9%

Free Cash Flow / Debt -14.7% 9.5% 5% - 10% -2.7% 12.4% 5.2% - 6.7% 6.4% 7.2% 5.3% - 5.6% 2.8% 18.4% -7.3%

Source: Moody's Financial Metrics™ and Moody’s Investors Service

6 12 April 2021 Metso Outotec Corporation: Update following ratings affirmation MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

Exhibit 10 Metso Outotec's adjusted EBITDA breakdown (in EUR Millions) PF Dec-19 PF Dec-20 As Reported EBITDA 454 482 Unusual 0 0 Moody's-Adjusted EBITDA 454 482

Source: Moody’s Investors Service

Exhibit 11 Metso Outotec's adjusted debt breakdown (in EUR Millions) PF Dec-19 PF Dec-20 As Reported Debt 1,203 1,345 Pensions 98 98 Moody's-Adjusted Debt 1,301 1,443

Source: Moody’s Investors Service

Ratings

Exhibit 12 Category Moody's Rating METSO OUTOTEC CORPORATION Outlook Stable Issuer Rating Baa2 Senior Unsecured -Dom Curr Baa2 Source: Moody's Investors Service

7 12 April 2021 Metso Outotec Corporation: Update following ratings affirmation MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

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REPORT NUMBER 1275831

8 12 April 2021 Metso Outotec Corporation: Update following ratings affirmation MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

CLIENT SERVICES

Americas 1-212-553-1653 Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077 Japan 81-3-5408-4100 EMEA 44-20-7772-5454

9 12 April 2021 Metso Outotec Corporation: Update following ratings affirmation