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Metso Outotec Corporation 12 April 2021 Update Following Ratings Affirmation

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Metso Outotec Corporation 12 April 2021 Update Following Ratings Affirmation CORPORATES CREDIT OPINION Metso Outotec Corporation 12 April 2021 Update following ratings affirmation Update Summary The Baa2 long-term issuer rating of Metso Outotec reflects as positives its (1) good market position and comprehensive solutions offering within the mid- and downstream mining and aggregates value chain; (2) high share of aftermarket sales, amounting to over 50% of 2020 revenue pro forma for the merger, which should support relative stability of profitability RATINGS through the cycle; (3) diversified revenue base in terms of both geography and commodity; Metso Outotec Corporation (4) significant exposure to aggregates, a sector that historically has behaved somewhat Domicile Finland countercyclical to the traditional mining sector; and (5) public commitment to maintaining Long Term Rating Baa2 an investment-grade rating and deleveraging during the next two years. Type LT Issuer Rating - Fgn Curr However, the rating is constrained by the company’s: (1) high leverage for the assigned rating, Outlook Stable with a pro forma Moody’s-adjusted debt/EBITDA of 3.0x for 2020, although we expect it to Please see the ratings section at the end of this report decrease toward the 2.0x area during the next 12-18 months through a combination of debt for more information. The ratings and outlook shown prepayments and profitability improvements; (2) somewhat narrow end-market exposure, reflect information as of the publication date. with over 60% of revenue derived from the highly cyclical mining sector; (3) relatively low profitability compared with that of its peers within the rating category - mostly driven by its weak Metals segment, which is likely to be turned around over the next few years and (4) Contacts risks related to the complex project business. Daniel Harlid +46. 8.5179.1271 VP-Senior Analyst Exhibit 1 [email protected] Leverage expected to come down toward 2.0x within the next 12-18 months Moody's-adjusted debt / EBITDA Christian Hendker, +49.69.70730.735 3.5x CFA 3.0x 3.0x 2.9x Associate Managing Director 2.5x [email protected] 2.0x-2.4x 2.0x Yunxin Wang +46.8.5179.1273 Associate Analyst 1.5x [email protected] 1.0x 0.5x CLIENT SERVICES 0.0x 2019PF 2020PF 12-18 months forward view Americas 1-212-553-1653 Forecast is the view of Moody's Investors Service and not the issuer. Source: Moody's Investors Service Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077 Japan 81-3-5408-4100 EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES Credit strengths » One of the largest companies within mid- and downstream minerals processing equipment and services globally » Large installed base of mining equipment, with high exposure to very profitable sales of wear and spare parts » Versatile exposure in terms of commodity, with high-growth commodities such as battery metals generating 40% of sales » Expanding aggregates business, which helps the company shield itself from the volatile traditional mining sector Credit challenges » Somewhat narrow end-market exposure » Relatively low Moody’s-adjusted EBITA margin of 10% compared with that of its peers » High leverage for the current Baa2 rating, although expected to decrease » Struggling Metals segment, although currently undergoing a restructuring and turnaround process that should yield results already in 2021 Rating outlook The stable outlook reflects Moody’s expectation that Metso Outotec, through a combination of debt prepayments and profitability- enhancing initiatives, shows a Moody’s-adjusted debt / EBITDA of 2.0x-2.4x and FCF / debt of 5%-10% in the next 12-18 months. Furthermore, the outlook incorporates the expectation of a balanced financial policy, weighing shareholder remuneration against its commitment of maintaining an investment-grade rating. Factors that could lead to an upgrade » Sustainable improvements of the Moody’s-adjusted EBITA margin toward 13% » Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA close to or below 2.0x on a sustained basis » Moody's-adjusted FCF/debt at or above 10% on a sustained basis Factors that could lead to a downgrade » Moody's-adjusted EBITA margin decreasing below 10% » Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA above 3.0x » A prolonged period of negative free cash flow generation This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history. 2 12 April 2021 Metso Outotec Corporation: Update following ratings affirmation MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES Key indicators Exhibit 2 Metso Outotec Corporation 12/31/2019 PF 12/31/2020 PF Moody's 12-18 months forward view Revenue (USD Billion) $4.9 $4.6 $4.9 - $5.0 EBITA Margin 9.1% 10.2% 11.5% - 12.0% EBITA / Interest Expense 6.2x 8.1x 14.5x - 14.9x Debt / EBITDA 2.9x 3.0x 2.0x - 2.4x Retained Cash Flow / Net Debt 22.4% 17.9% 28% - 33% Free Cash Flow / Debt -14.7% 9.5% 5% - 10% Forward view is the view of Moody's and not the issuer. Source: Moody's Financial Metrics™ and Moody’s Investors Service Estimates Profile Headquartered in Helsinki, Finland, Metso Outotec Corporation is manufacturer and service provider within the mid- and downstream value chain of minerals processing. Pro forma for the full year 2020, the group generated revenue of €3.9 billion and an adjusted EBITA €398 million. Exhibit 3 Exhibit 4 Revenue per region Revenue per segment As of 2020 As of 2020 Metals APAC 11% 20% Aggregates 26% EMEA 41% Americas 39% Minerals 63% Numbers are pro forma. Numbers are pro forma. Source: Company presentation Source: Company presentation Detailed credit considerations Comprehensive offering to the mid- and downstream value chain of minerals processing The partial demerger of Metso Corporation and combination of Metso's Minerals business and Outotec was completed on 30 June 2020. By combining Metso Minerals and Outotec, the two groups' different strengths have created a company with a presence in all the stages of the mid- and downstream value chain of minerals processing. The improved market position of the combined group is a positive driver for the Baa2 rating. The value chain includes materials handling, comminution, separation and refining. The value chain is rather fragmented, with only Danish-based FLSmidth having the same coverage as Metso Outotec (although somewhat narrower), and Terex Corporation (B1 Stable), Weir Group Plc (The) (Baa3 Negative) and CITIC Group Corporation (A3 stable) in foremost comminution. We think having a comprehensive offering for mining and aggregates customers is attractive because of the increasing integration between equipment and services, not at least through digitalisation where we understand Mesto Outotec has a strong offering. The group exhibits a good and balanced geographic diversification, supported by company’s extensive global service 3 12 April 2021 Metso Outotec Corporation: Update following ratings affirmation MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES network and large installed base. This effectively provides barriers to entry, enabling customer proximity and making it very difficult for new incumbents to replicate the group's coverage. Volatility in the mining sector is balanced by exposure to the more stable aggregates sector and aftermarket Metso Outotec’s exposure to the mining sector makes it vulnerable to the capital spending cycle of the global mining companies, which from time to time can show significant swings, constraining the rating. This was evident in both companies' operating performance during the commodity downturn from 2012 to 2016, with both sales and profit contracting, materially so for Outotec. For Metso Minerals, its large aftermarket exposure and outsourcing of mining equipment manufacturing has shielded the division’s profitability and revenue somewhat from the severest downturns. Outotec’s Minerals division, however, has proved less resilient, with its reported EBITA margin contracting sharply and that troughed at around 4% in 2016 on a trailing 12-month basis. One of the other factors behind Metso Mineral's stronger performance is its exposure to aggregates, a much more stable sector because of its close links to governmental infrastructure spending, which is countercyclical in nature (governments tend to spend more during tougher economic times). In 2020, aggregates represented 26% of the Metso Outotec's revenue. Metals segment still underperforming but turnaround initiated In October 2020, the company announced its decision to divest its Recycling business, which consists of equipment and services for metals and waste recycling. In 2020, it had a turnover of €125 million and a breakeven operating result. The remaining metals segment is now undergoing a comprehensive turnaround, where its business scope and structure is being addressed. A successful turnaround would be credit positive as the division's €380 million of revenue contributed negatively by €24 million to group operating profit in 2020. Exhibit 5 Metals division has had a relatively volatile operating performance during the last two years Revenue Reported operating margin (RHS) 160 25.0% 137 20.0% 140 121 115 15.0% 120 107 110 102 10.0% 100 86 5.0% 79 80 0.0% -5.0% 60 -10.0% 40 -15.0% 20 -20.0% 0 -25.0% Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Figures for the segment excludes the Recycling business as it has been classified as discontinued operations Source: Company annual report 2020 The metals segment has historically been a rather diverse set of technologies under the Outotec umbrella, struggling to sustainably remaining profitable since 2014. We understand that the volatile performance has been driven partly by the fact that the company has historically taken on construction risks in many projects. We believe that management's dedication to turnaround the business to a more stable one should yield results already during 2021.
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