China and America: a New Game in a New Era
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PRISMVOL. 9, NO. 2 | 2021 THE JOURNAL OF COMPLEX OPERATIONS FEATURES 3 Natural Hazards and National Security: The COVID-19 Lessons VOL. 9, NO. 2 By David Omand X The Military in the Time of COVID-19: Versatile, Vulnerable, and Vindicating By Nina Wilén X China and America: A New Game in a New Era PRISM By William H. Overholt X China and America: From Trade War to Race and Culture Confrontation By Walter Woon X Time for a New National Innovation System for Security and Prosperity By Robert Atkinson X Iran’s Gray Zone Strategy: Cornerstone of its Asymmetric Way of War By Michael Eisenstadt X A Friend to All is a Friend to None: Analysis of Russian Strategy in the Middle East By Maj Jason Hamilton, USAF, Maj Rose Wilde, USAF, and LTC Jason Wimberly, USA X Negotiating [Im]plausible Deniability:Strategic Guidelines for U.S. Engagement in Modern Indirect Warfare By Kyle Atwell and Joshua M. Portzer INTERVIEWS X The Honorable Jack Lew—Interviewed by Michael Miklaucic www.ndu.edu BOOK REVIEWS X America in the World: A History of U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Policy, by Robert Gates Reviewed by Thomas Pickering X How Ike Led: The Principles Behind Eisenhower’s Biggest Decisions, by Susan Eisenhower Reviewed by Walt Hudson X The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare, by Christian Brose Reviewed by T.X. Hammes X Weaponized Words: The Strategic Role of Persuasion in Violent Radicalization and Counter-Radicalization, by Kurt Braddock Reviewed by Vivian Walker X Power on the Precipice: The Six Choices America Faces in a Turbulent World, by Andrew Imbrie Reviewed by John Campbell 2021 China and America A New Game in a New Era William H. Overholt hina and the United States are in a differ- inevitable; we have serious conflicts with China, ent game than the rising power/established but also enormous common interests that are power conflicts of the past. Most analy- currently being neglected; China is not a demon Cses of such rivalries are based on pre–World War and our allies are not angels; we need to live in the II history and fail to notice that the game changed world as it is, not as we wish it to be; and, above all, radically after World War II. Sometimes when to continue as a world leader, Americans must play alterations are made in the rules or implements of a the new game. game, the risks and the optimal strategies change. Leading scholars and strategists tend to misread Is War with China Inevitable? the lessons of the past for Sino-American conflict A common baseline analogy of the U.S.-China because they fail to recognize that these radical relationship is the Thucydides Trap. From the changes constitute a new game. time of ancient Greece through World War II, Disciplinary silos favor an overemphasis on when a rising power met an established power, war political-military relationships and enable political resulted roughly three out of every four times.1 scientists and historians to ignore decisive economic Even putting aside that fourth time, political sci- issues. Those leaders responsible for managing the entists have been unwilling to confront the way U.S.-China relationship arrive at the same over-em- things have changed since World War II. From phasis on the military because in peacetime our ancient Greece through World War II, import- national allocation of resources is determined by ant conflicts were typically between neighbors, Congressional lobbying, where the military-indus- each using its military power to grab territory trial complex has an overwhelming advantage. from its neighbors: examples include Athens and I will begin and end with the problems of Sparta, or Germany and France. Post–WWII con- understanding and playing the right game, while flicts are not like that. Two things have changed: addressing other crucial issues in the relationship. We have learned how to grow economies much The key messages are; military conflict is far from faster; and military technology— not just nuclear William H. Overholt, Senior Research Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School, is the author of China’s Crisis of Success and Asia, America and the Transformation of Geopolitics, among other works. PRISM 9, NO. 2 FEATURES | 35 OVERHOLT technology—has become vastly more destructive. regional stature than the Philippines. Social distress Both sides are likely to lose if they pursue the his- made Indonesia home to a vast, potentially violent torical path to great power dominance. and destabilizing Islamist movement as well as a As a result, the path to becoming or remaining huge communist party. After 1966, it refocused a great power has become primarily an economic on economic development and, having stabilized path. This is a fundamental shift in the way the by providing most of its people a stake in society, world works—a new game. To miss that, as most of became the unquestioned leader of Southeast Asia. our international relations writers and strategists do, Importantly, it became a leader by giving up most of is tantamount to an economist missing the indus- its territorial claims in order to focus on economic trial revolution. development. It played the new game. During the Cold War, the United States In China, Deng Xiaoping instituted dramatic needed a superior military. We had to prevail in cuts to the military budget as a percent of GDP the Berlin Airlift and the Cuban Missile Crisis. and settled most of China’s land border disputes in But it was our economic strategy that ultimately order to focus on economic growth. The subsequent won the Cold War. We delivered decisive aid and economic takeoff made China a major power well institution-building programs, starting with before the current military buildup began. China’s Greece and Turkey. Then, using the Bretton Woods military rise is impressive, but its global leadership system, organized around the World Bank, the lives or dies on domestic economic growth and its International Monetary Fund (IMF), and General international economic strategy. Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)/World The path to becoming a successful big power Trade Organization (WTO), we created a global has become an economic strategy protected by a network of development centered on ourselves, strong military—or an ally with a strong military. uplifting friends and allies in a way that was sus- Economic strategies differ from military strategies tainable and continually growing. In contrast, in that they are not inherently zero-sum; both sides the Soviet Union poured all its resources into its can win. When Germany and France fought, one military, while maintaining a traditional empire, won while the other lost. When the United States and bankrupted itself. For us this was an economic and Japan, or the United States and China compete, victory. The United States played the game the new both can prosper. That is a vital aspect of the current way. The Soviets played the old way and lost. U.S.-China rivalry. China is 8000 miles away from the United What About Other Countries? States: U.S.-China territorial issues are trivial. If we Japan became a big power without much of a mil- behave like a pre–World War II power, we risk mak- itary. South Korea, initially inferior economically, ing the Thucydides Trap a self- fulfilling prophecy. militarily, and in political stability to its northern To some extent, we are falling into that trap, as are opponent, changed its bet under General Park China and Japan. If we play the game the tradi- Chung Hee from military to economic priorities. tional way, we may indeed end up trapped. Graham It is now about 50 times larger economically than Allison’s Destined for War, offers a brilliant exposi- North Korea, which continues to emphasize mili- tion of the consequences.2 We may just lose in the tary priorities. struggle for leadership by fumbling our economic Until the 1960s, Indonesia claimed much of management. Military conflict is not a law of his- Southeast Asia but had a hapless economy and less tory, particularly post–World War II. 36 | FEATURES PRISM 9, NO. 2 A NEW GAME IN A NEW ERA A Complex Relationship Effective Sino-American economic collaboration There are some issues on which the United States has led to the greatest reduction of poverty in human must confront China frontally; for instance, some history. For the first time in thousands of years of of China’s predatory maritime claims, as well as human existence, mankind has more basic goods— its refusal to provide foreign access to its domestic clothes, food, and much else—than we actually need. market. These critical issues are well known, so I There are immense unpublicized national security will largely focus on less-known interests. There are benefits from the resulting stabilization and concomi- times and events that call for decisive action, includ- tant reduction in global grievance and terrorism. ing military action when necessary. In 2012, China Sino-American collaboration has midwifed the took action to claim Scarborough Shoal near the world into a post-industrial era, where the majority of Philippines. This was a critical moment. Scarborough jobs are in the service economy, mostly higher-paying Shoal has long been an important fishing ground and free of the backbreaking labor of the agricultural for Philippine families. Unlike other South China and industrial eras. Sino-American collaboration has Sea rocks, Scarborough Shoal was officially claimed given our world real hope of addressing the funda- by the Philippines in the 1930s, so China’s assertion mental challenges of the next generation; climate that its 11-dash line was the first claim in the region change and environmental degradation.