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Mahindra & Mahindra25nov20 Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) Rating: BUY | CMP: Rs729 | TP: Rs826 November 25, 2020 Shaping up itself! – Reiterate BUY Company Update Quick Pointers: Change in Estimates | ☑ Target | Reco . Farm segment (FES) outlook stable led by positive rural sentiments, expect domestic tractor sales to grow ~6% CAGR over FY20-22. Change in Estimates Current Previous . Capital allocation exercise gathered pace in 1HFY21 as MM continued its focus FY22E FY23E FY22E FY23E Rating BUY BUY on exiting non core/loss making business. Target Price 826 728 Sales (Rs. m) 5,15,432 5,77,153 5,15,432 5,77,153 We reiterate BUY on M&M (MM) led by 1) positive rural sentiments and stable % Chng. - - EBITDA (Rs. m) 64,465 73,779 64,465 73,779 tractor outlook providing margins and cash-flow cushion to compete in UV % Chng. - - business, 2) renewed focus to gain back lost market share in UV business EPS (Rs.) 35.3 40.2 35.3 40.2 % Chng. - - with new product launches, 3) dominating presence in LCVs to help ride CV upcycle and 4) increased focus on capital allocation with exit of non-core Key Financials - Standalone business like GenZ, USPS (MANA) and Gipps Aerospace (aircraft Y/e Mar FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E manufacturing) in 1HY21. However, key factors such as 1) increased Sales (Rs. bn) 455 455 515 577 competition in UVs led by new entrant and 2) feedback on newly launched EBITDA (Rs. bn) 58 64 64 74 Margin (%) 12.7 14.0 12.5 12.8 passenger UVs are to be watched out. PAT (Rs. bn) 22 40 42 48 EPS (Rs.) 18.4 33.3 35.3 40.2 We are positive on MM as better rural sentiments should help drive FES and Gr. (%) (54.6) 81.3 6.2 13.7 DPS (Rs.) 2.4 8.0 10.0 12.0 auto segments over FY21-23. We expect farm and UV segment volumes to Yield (%) 0.3 1.1 1.4 1.6 grow by 5% and 9% CAGR over FY21-23 led by new launches. We built in RoE (%) 6.4 11.2 11.0 11.6 EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 12.6%/19% over FY21-23E. We expect M&M+MVML RoCE (%) 9.7 10.2 9.7 10.4 EV/Sales (x) 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 margins to remain elevated at ~14% over FY22-23. This is due to tractor EV/EBITDA (x) 14.4 13.0 12.9 11.2 segment contribution to remain elevated at ~44% (v/s 37% in FY18-20). PE (x) 39.7 21.9 20.6 18.2 P/BV (x) 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.0 Further, operating leverage benefits and cost control benefits to help offset RM pressure. Hence, we reiterate BUY with revised SoTP based price target of Rs826 (v/s Rs728). The revision in TP is primarily led by 1) increase in core Key Data MAHM.BO | MM IN business target multiple at 15x roll forwarded to Mar-23 earnings (v/s 14x 52-W High / Low Rs.745 / Rs.245 Sensex / Nifty 44,523 / 13,055 based on Sep-22 for positive product feedback) and 2) increase in subs value Market Cap Rs.907bn/ $ 12,253m Shares Outstanding 1,243m to Rs190 (v/s Rs180 earlier, unchanged at 40% hold-co). 3M Avg. Daily Value Rs.8046.55m Stable tractor outlook to provide margin cushion to other Shareholding Pattern (%) segments Promoter’s 23.80 Foreign 34.72 . With ~60% to revenues, ~75% to S/A PAT contributed by rural, MM is best Domestic Institution 30.68 Public & Others 10.80 placed to ride resilient rural demand. Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) 1.95 . This will further be complimented by sharp increase in demand for agri Stock Performance (%) implements such as harvesters, rice planters and other implements. As on 1M 6M 12M today the opportunity size of implement segment is ~Rs70bn (v/s tractor Absolute 16.7 71.1 33.6 industry size of Rs390bn). While the penetration of implements remains <5% Relative 6.6 17.9 21.1 currently, which we believe will expand gradually with increasing farm mechanization. Deep Shah [email protected] | 91-22-66322235 . Stable tractor industry demand outlook with mid-single digit growth in FY21 Amber Shukla (FY20 decline of -10%) should provide margin cushion to competitive UV [email protected] | 91-22-66322426 segment. We build in 8%/5% tractor segment growth for MM in FY21/22. November 25, 2020 1 Mahindra & Mahindra Renewed focus to revive UV volumes to help arrest market share . MM is on track for having a complete gasoline powertrain; it intends to offer petrol versions of all models by 2020. It would be launching four new petrol engines – 0.6-litre, 1.5-litre, 2-litre TGDI, and 2-litre GDI. BS6 petrol TGDI/GDI-based engines would help bridge the gap between diesel and petrol. MM has fungible engine capacity between diesel and petrol, thereby de-risking its investments. Another focus area is JV between Ford-M&M which will co-develop products such as MPVs which will help bridge white space in MM’s product portfolio. M&M has consistently lost market share in competitive UV1 segment from ~20.7% in FY18 to 12.9% in YTDFY21. We expect this segment to remain under pressure led by heightened competition and preference for petrol models going forward. In UV2 segment too with competitive pressure, it has lost market share to 38% in YTDFY21 (v/s 43.2% in FY18). LCV dominance to help ride upcycle – wide product offerings to strengthen positioning . LCV industry should continue to benefit from the increasing emergence of the 'Hub and Spoke' model. MM’s dominant share of ~39% in the overall LCV and ~63% in the 2-3.5ton LCV (pick-up) category in FY20 bode well to ride this trend. Capital allocation exercise gathered pace in 1HFY21 . In 1HFY21, MM invested INR28bn in subsidiaries of which large chunk (~Rs16bn) was invested in rights issue of MMFS. The balance Rs12bn was toward debt reduction in some international subsidiaries. In 1HFY21, MM announced exit for the aeroplane business (Gippsaero), which made loss of INR3-4bn in FY20. It has also exited other business like GenZ (smart EV 2W) and USPS (MANA). (click here for our report on detailed subs performance). Aggregate PBT loss of key overseas operating subsidiaries (ex-SMC) remained steady but elevated at Rs16bn (FY19 Rs15bn). All these subsidiaries incurred losses in FY19/FY20, but losses are more profound in Mahindra USA Inc. (Rs5bn), Peugeot Motocycles SAS (~Rs2bn) and Mahindra Vehicles Sales (Rs3bn). With regards to SsangYong (SYMC), discussions are ongoing with an investor where it expects resolution of SYMC within next few months. November 25, 2020 2 Mahindra & Mahindra Steadily increasing rural government spend index to also aid positive farm sentiments Source: Company investor presentation, PL Tractors – Project K2 – Aggressive new launch pipeline to drive industry outperformance Source: Company investor presentation, PL November 25, 2020 3 Mahindra & Mahindra Tractor sales to grow ~6% CAGR over FY20-22 MM market share in tractor segment at ~38% Domestic tractor sales (000s) Growth (RHS) Market Share 900 787 766 804 25% 42.0% 729 709 800 20% 41.0% 700 634 599 41.7% 41.7% 551 15% 41.2% 600 535 527 509 40.0% 480 10% 40.4% 500 40.2% 5% 39.0% 40.0% 400 39.1% 300 0% 38.0% 200 -5% 37.0% 38.2% -10% 100 36.0% 0 -15% FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E Q1FY21 FY22E Q2FY21 Source: Company, PL Source: Company, PL Market share in UV1 declined ~250bp v/s FY20 Market share in UV2 improved ~50bp v/s FY20 UV1 Market Share (%) UV2 Market Share (%) 31.4 35.0 29.6 70.0 57.9 56.1 30.0 24.8 60.0 20.7 42.9 43.2 44.0 25.0 20.2 50.0 37.5 38.0 15.4 20.0 12.9 40.0 15.0 30.0 10.0 20.0 5.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21YTD FY21YTD Source: SIAM, PL Source: SIAM, PL MM market share in LCVs at 43% in Q2FY21 MM market share in 2-3.5 tonner goods carriers LCV Market Share LCV 2-3.5 tonne 56.8 60.0 80.0 55.0 70.0 50.0 74.5 41.7 42.0 43.0 73.3 45.0 39.1 39.9 39.1 60.0 69.1 38.3 65.8 62.9 65.3 63.0 40.0 50.0 61.9 35.0 40.0 30.0 25.0 30.0 20.0 20.0 FY15 FY15 FY16 FY16 FY17 FY17 FY18 FY18 FY19 FY19 FY20 FY20 Q1FY21 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q2FY21 Source: SIAM, PL Source: SIAM, PL November 25, 2020 4 Mahindra & Mahindra SOTP FY22E FY23E Core EPS (excl. subsidiary dividend) 37.0 42.5 PE attributable (x) 15 15 Value of core business 556 637 Value of subsidiaries @ Hold Co discount 40 40 1. Tech Mahindra 113 113 2. M&M Financial Services 23 23 3. Mahindra Lifespaces 4 4 4. Mahindra Holidays 15 15 5. Ssangyong 15 15 6. Mahindra CIE 3 3 7. Mahindra Logistics 8 8 Target price 745 826 Source: PL Key revenue metrics Segmental performance (Rs mn) 000 units FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Y/e March FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21YTD Tractors 302 326 342 359 Revenue Growth (%) -8.6 8.0 5.0 5.0 Auto 3,20,556 3,53,529 2,84,086 85,240 % of total volumes 39.1 45.0 43.4 42.4 Farm Equipment 1,60,936 1,68,747 1,54,025 81,762 UVs 403 362 399 426 Others 16,541 17,251 19,377 6,660 Growth (%) -23.0 -10.0 10.0 7.0 Total Revenue 4,98,032 5,39,527 4,57,488 1,73,662 LCVs 6 5 5 6 Growth (%) -26.5 -20.0 8.0 12.0 PBIT 3-Ws 62 31 42 57 Auto 21,601 20,275 12,637 -3,003 Growth (%) -6.8 -50.0 35.0 35.0 Farm equipment 31,454 32,651 29,262 18,618 M&HCVs 5 4 4 4 Others 509 508 726 73 Growth (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total PBIT 53,564 53,433 42,625 15,688 Total Autos 471 398 446 489 Growth (%) -21.2 -15.4 11.9 9.7 PBIT Margin % of total volumes 60.9 55.0 56.6 57.6 Auto 6.7 5.7 4.4 -3.5 Total volumes 773 724 788 849 Farm equipment 19.5 19.3 19.0 22.8 Growth (%) -17.2 -6.4 8.8 7.7 Others 3.1 2.9 3.7 1.1 ASP (INR '000/Unit) 585 626 651 677 PBIT Margins (%) 10.8 9.9 9.3 9.0 Growth (%) 2.4 7.0 4.0 4.0 Source: Company, PL Net Sales (INR b) 455 455 515 577 Growth (%) -15.2 0.1 13.2 12.0 Source: Company, PL November 25, 2020 5 Mahindra & Mahindra Financials Income Statement (Rs m) Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m) Y/e Mar FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Y/e Mar FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Net Revenues 4,54,878 4,55,460 5,15,432 5,77,153 Non-Current Assets YoY gr.
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