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San Francisco Office Q1 2019

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San Francisco Office Q1 2019 MARKETBEAT San Francisco Office Q1 2019 SAN FRANCISCO OFFICE Future Lease Commitments Drive Market to Economic Indicators* New Heights In the past six months there have been two large pre-leases in San 12-Month Q1 18 Q1 19 Forecast Francisco on proposed sites that have yet to reach entitlement; 325,000 square feet (sf) to Salesforce at Transbay Parcel F in the San Francisco Metro Employment 992M 1,032M South Financial District and nearly 490,000 sf to Pinterest at 88 San Francisco Metro Unemployment 2.5% 2.3% Bluxome Street in SoMa. More than anything, these transactions speak to the scarcity of large block supply in San Francisco and are U.S. Unemployment 4.1% 3.8% examples of big space occupiers opportunistically “putting their stake *February 2019 data used to represent Q1 19 for San Francisco Metro in the ground” to secure the future opportunity to grow their workforce in San Francisco. Lease commitments have been made in both developments five years in advance of expected completion Market Indicators (Overall, All Classes) which is quite unusual. By comparison, recent new leases for 100,000 sf or greater in San Francisco have, on average, been 12-Month Q1 18 Q1 19 signed 15 months prior to occupancy. Forecast Overall Vacancy 7.6% 5.8% The San Francisco metropolitan division (San Francisco and San Mateo counties) closed February with an unemployment Net Absorption (sf) 2.2M 830k rate of 2.3%, down from a revised 2.5% in January and below Under Construction (sf) 4.7M 2.4M the year ago figure of 2.5%. Surprisingly, office using positions Average Asking Rent* $71.40 $77.26 grew by 5.1% year-over-year (YOY), a full percentage point increase from the 4.1% growth over the previous 12-month *Rental rates reflect full service asking $psf/year period. Total private sector jobs increased by 4.0% to 1,032,400. Overall Net Absorption/Overall Asking Rent Asking rents reached new highs yet again. The Citywide overall 4-QTR TRAILING AVERAGE asking rent closed at a record $77.26 per square foot (psf), up 1,400 $80 8.2% YOY. The CBD Class A direct asking rent was a record 1,200 $84.16 psf, up 9.7% YOY. 1,000 $70 800 Vacancy was just above the 10-year low of 5.6%. The Citywide $60 600 overall figure was 5.8% at the end of the first quarter, falling 60 400 basis points (bps) from the fourth quarter and down nearly 2% $50 200 from one year ago. 0 $40 -200 Citywide new leasing totaled 2.3 million square feet (msf); well -400 $30 above the 10-year quarterly average of 1.8 msf. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Net Absorption, SF (thousands) Asking Rent, $ PSF Active tenant requirements increased significantly in the first quarter, up 1.3 msf over the quarter and 1.7 msf over the year Overall Vacancy ago figure to 6.5 msf. Large block demand greater than 50,000 12% sf has climbed 41% YOY and far outpaces supply. There are currently 20 tenant requirements of 100,000 sf or more but only 10% five contiguous space options that can offer occupancy through 2023. 8% Construction & Development 6% Historical Average = 7.4% Almost 2.5 msf was under construction at the end of the first quarter, 4% with a rather long range delivery period between mid-year 2019 and 2023. But looking at the shorter timeframe of 24 months, there was 2% only 1.4 msf scheduled to deliver with nearly all of that pre-leased. The next wave of development will likely occur in the Central SoMa 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 District; however, pending litigation has put a measure of uncertainty onto when and how the Plan will proceed. That said, one cushmanwakefield.com | 1 MARKETBEAT San Francisco Office Q1 2019 development has signed a pre-lease with Pinterest committing to Average Asking Rate by Submarket (Full Service) nearly 490,000 sf at 88 Bluxome Street. With big block tenant SOUTH FINANCIAL ACCELERATING TO $83.02 PSF demand remaining strong in San Francisco it would not be $110 $101.47 surprising to see additional pre-leasing on proposed/unentitled $100 $90 sites. Not all of these proposed projects could be approved as $83.02 $80.00 $77.02 $80 $74.41 there is currently just 2.9 msf within the Prop M large cap queue. $71.77 $69.06 $66.86 $70 $61.57 $60 $53.56 In the past six months there have been two large $50 pre-leases in San Francisco on proposed sites $40 that have yet to reach entitlement. $30 $20 $10 Leasing Activity & Absorption $0 South Jackson North SOMA North Mid-Market Showplace Union Van Ness The Financial Square Financial Waterfront Square / Square Corridor Presidio New leasing totaled 2.3 msf in the first three months of 2019 and Potrero Hill was tied with the first quarter of 2015 as the most active first quarter since 2000. There were five new leases signed for more Availabilities by Size Segment than 100,000 sf, four to tech firms and one to a law firm. Of those LARGE BLOCK AVAILABILITIES REMAIN SCARCE five leases, three were 100% net new future occupancy. Pre- leasing accounted for the largest transactions with the previously mentioned Pinterest deal at 88 Bluxome Street and Asana’s pre- lease at 633 Folsom Street which delivers in 2020. 27 7 Investment Activity 90 0-10K San Francisco investment activity continued to exceed 419 10-25K expectations and kept pace with Manhattan in the first quarter with Listings 25-50K the two markets closing at $1.24 and $1.41 billion respectively. 50K+ 296 Office valuations continue to rise in San Francisco. Seven transactions closed citywide with an average price of $933 psf, well above Manhattan’s $811 psf. Strong leasing fundamentals and buyer demand are expected to continue through 2019 and a number of pending transactions are expected to close above $1,000 psf. The top transaction of the first quarter by price per Average Asking Rate by Class (Full Service) square foot was the sale of 500 Terry Francois Boulevard as Gap CLASS A RENTS STEADILY ON THE RISE IN FIRST QUARTER purchased their headquarters from Hines for $1,210 psf. $85 Outlook $80 $75 Anticipated further pre-leasing of large proposed/unentitled sites. $70 $65 Increased scarcity of large block availabilities. $60 Falling vacancy rate and additional rent increases through $55 2019. $50 Up to 16 IPO’s in 2019 from a variety of technology-focused $45 companies based in San Francisco with the potential for $40 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 further wealth creation. Class A Class B cushmanwakefield.com | 2 MARKETBEAT San Francisco Office Q1 2019 YTD **YTD OVERALL OVERALL SUBLET DIRECT OVERALL CURRENT QTR INVENTORY OVERALL NET LEASING UNDER CNSTC AVERAGE ASKING AVERAGE SUBMARKET VACANT VACANT VACANCY OVERALL NET (SF) ABSORPTION ACTIVITY (SF) RENT ASKING RENT (SF) (SF) RATE ABSORPTION (SF) (SF) (SF) (ALL CLASSES)* (CLASS A)* North Financial District 26,517,916 261,336 1,762,604 7.6% 54,891 54,891 551,468 0 $77.02 $81.99 South Financial District 28,229,252 368,348 1,510,465 6.7% 642,402 642,402 915,571 1,320,000 $83.02 $84.12 CBD 54,747,168 629,684 3,273,069 7.1% 697,293 697,293 1,467,039 1,320,000 $79.36 $82.94 Jackson Square 1,490,806 0 61,305 4.1% 20,911 20,911 0 0 $80.00 N/A North Waterfront 3,238,808 8,426 147,224 4.8% 34,690 34,690 23,963 0 $71.77 $74.99 SOMA 8,211,439 18,521 91,560 1.3% 95,019 95,019 644,147 0 $74.41 $84.91 Mid-Market 4,367,051 78,031 178,388 5.9% -72,233 -72,233 75,594 0 $69.91 $73.81 Union Square 3,173,989 34,045 132,691 5.3% 37,948 37,948 52,145 0 $66.86 $77.51 Van Ness Corridor 833,356 10,865 59,053 8.4% -3,189 -3,189 0 0 $53.56 $54.40 Showplace Square / 3,976,623 14,237 19,965 0.9% 37,072 37,072 9,547 85,333 $69.06 N/A Potrero Hill Mission Bay 1,771,735 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 1,023,000 N/A N/A The Presidio 1,030,627 0 26,644 2.6% -17,980 -17,980 0 0 $101.47 $101.47 Third Street Corridor 349,465 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A TOTAL 83,191,067 793,809 3,989,899 5.8% 829,531 829,531 2,272,435 2,428,333 $77.26 $81.92 *Rental rates reflect full service asking $psf/year ** Does not include renewals OFFICE CLASS BREAKDOWN Class A 59,558,009 636,194 2,880,683 5.9% 622,801 622,801 1,948,615 2,428,333 $81.92 Class B 16,183,496 118,657 933,926 6.5% 158,683 158,683 280,302 0 $67.72 Class C 7,449,562 38,958 175,290 2.9% 48,047 48,047 43,518 0 $68.83 Key Lease Transactions Q1 2019 PROPERTY SF TENANT LANDLORD TRANSACTION TYPE SUBMARKET 88 Bluxome Street 488,000 Pinterest Alexandria Real Estate New Lease SOMA 633 Folsom Street 270,000 Asana The Swig Company New Lease South Financial 45 Fremont Street 207,000 Slack Shorenstein New Lease South Financial 215 Fremont Street 140,000 Google Clarion Partners / LPC West New Lease South Financial Three Embarcadero Center 128,000 Cooley LLP Boston Properties New Lease North Financial Four Embarcadero 85,000 Marsh Insurance Boston Properties Renewal/Expansion North Financial Two Embarcadero Center 80,000 O’Melveny & Myers Boston Properties Renewal North Financial Key Sale Transactions Q1 2019 PROPERTY SF BUYER SELLER PRICE / $PSF SUBMARKET 215 Fremont Street 373,500 Clarion Partners / LPC West Jack Resnick & Sons $335,500,000 / $898 South Financial 111 Sutter Street 286,200 Paramount Group JLL Income Property Trust $227,000,000 / $793 North Financial 550 Terry Francois Blvd 283,000 Gap Inc.
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