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INTELLIGENCE BRIEF
DIRECTOR OF INTELLiGENCE AND RESEARCH fgd/ Chile Proiect (¹S19990000Q U.S. Department of State ~eiease ~cise ~y ~eciass Exemption(s) To : The Secretary ep em er , 1970 Through: S/S From : INR - Ray S. Cline Subject: Chile: Stop-Allende Stratagem Unlikely to Prosper
The efforts by rightists and some Christian Democrats to defeat Salvador Allende in the October 24 congressional run-off
election appear unlikely to prosper. President Eduardo Frei would
have to coInnit himself totally if the ploy were to have any chance
of success. Thus far indications are that while Frei is encouraging
the maneuver, he also is holding back and keeping his options open.
Frei's real aim could be to exact the strongest possible institutional
safeguards from Allende and his coalition.
The strata em and Frei's role. Since Allende did not gain a
majority on September 4, Congress will meet on October 24 to decide
between Allende and runner-up independent Jorge Alessandri. The
stratagem is for Frei to persuade large numbers of Christian
Democrats to combine with the Alessandri forces and some Radical
Party members to elect Alessandri who would resign, setting the
stage for new elections in which Frei could run and probably win.
' I'I . Po I . oroo C oc I B of Inlell cene ' and Resea ch. Asrde I.om ormal ' hslan(rse ecchance u rh as, n» at the oh st I, I h not h en coornnaled else herc n,—~I, rC/(/, / -2-
Even if Frei were to go all out and deliver a large b1oc of
his party, the move would not be assured of success. Anything
less than an all-out effort by Frei would appear to doom the strata-
gem from the outset: Allende won the popular elections; Congress has always voted for the front-runner under the 1925 Constitution; a sizable faction of the Christian Democrats appear convinced that
the country can only be governed successfully by a coalition with
the far left; and Allende appears to hold the upper hand with the Radicals.
Frei. From evidence to date Fref has not yet put himself completely behind the stop-Allende stratagem. This apparent in-
decision may be due to a lack of will. A group of Christian Democrats visiting Santiago to get a reading of the situation noted
that Frei bewailed his own impotence, that the party was badly
divided and that there was little hope of stopping Allende. Frei is
probably bothered by the probability of widespread violence if the
ploy succeeds and the likelihood that failure would leave the party
so weak and divided that ft would no longer represent a potential
stumbling block. to Allende in his attempt to establish an authori- tarian Marxist state.
Frei's "heyitation", however, may be the manuevering of the consumnate politician. Frei might believe that if the Christian
Democrats (PDC) went en masse hat in hand to Allende after the elections —as Tomic did —they could expect to receive few meaningful -3-
guarantees concerning the status of the military, education, the com-
munications media and opposition political parties. But hy making the alternative of supporting Alessandri a credible one, the Christian
Democrats would enonaously improve their bargaining position. This
could explain Frei's apparent half-hearted comaitment to the stratagem.
A special Comaission of five PDC leaders drew up a list of proposed
guarantees and presented them to the POC Council on September 14. The
Council will discuss these demands with Allende and then report in
October to the party national comaittee on the results of the talks. The national coaanlttee will then set policy regarding the voting in Congress.
Tb 'litarh, Military leaders pill probably proride tacit
support to the anti-Allende moves, but only so long as these moves
conform to constitutional norms and promise success without too much stress and risk of violence. If the politicians hesitate and bicker or if popular protests arise, the military might well disassociate themselves from the movement, fearful of cmnpromislng the military's arbiter role. Illustrative of the Armed Forces' desire to keep their options open, military leaders reportedly have been discussiog the status of the institution under an Allende administration with Popular
Unity leaders and have also requested Frei supporters not to turn the
September 19 military parade into a demonstration of popular support for Frei.