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5 I s ' r- - - rsd 1 R Fh 1 t hLENT 0+ iiii Rtlata-155 INTELLIGENCE BRIEF DIRECTOR OF INTELLiGENCE AND RESEARCH fgd/ Chile Proiect (¹S19990000Q U.S. Department of State ~eiease ~cise ~y ~eciass Exemption(s) To : The Secretary ep em er , 1970 Through: S/S From : INR - Ray S. Cline Subject: Chile: Stop-Allende Stratagem Unlikely to Prosper The efforts by rightists and some Christian Democrats to defeat Salvador Allende in the October 24 congressional run-off election appear unlikely to prosper. President Eduardo Frei would have to coInnit himself totally if the ploy were to have any chance of success. Thus far indications are that while Frei is encouraging the maneuver, he also is holding back and keeping his options open. Frei's real aim could be to exact the strongest possible institutional safeguards from Allende and his coalition. The strata em and Frei's role. Since Allende did not gain a majority on September 4, Congress will meet on October 24 to decide between Allende and runner-up independent Jorge Alessandri. The stratagem is for Frei to persuade large numbers of Christian Democrats to combine with the Alessandri forces and some Radical Party members to elect Alessandri who would resign, setting the stage for new elections in which Frei could run and probably win. ' I'I . Po I . oroo C oc I B of Inlell cene ' and Resea ch. Asrde I.om ormal ' hslan(rse ecchance u rh as, n» at the oh st I, I h not h en coornnaled else herc n,—~I, rC/(/, / -2- Even if Frei were to go all out and deliver a large b1oc of his party, the move would not be assured of success. Anything less than an all-out effort by Frei would appear to doom the strata- gem from the outset: Allende won the popular elections; Congress has always voted for the front-runner under the 1925 Constitution; a sizable faction of the Christian Democrats appear convinced that the country can only be governed successfully by a coalition with the far left; and Allende appears to hold the upper hand with the Radicals. Frei. From evidence to date Fref has not yet put himself completely behind the stop-Allende stratagem. This apparent in- decision may be due to a lack of will. A group of Christian Democrats visiting Santiago to get a reading of the situation noted that Frei bewailed his own impotence, that the party was badly divided and that there was little hope of stopping Allende. Frei is probably bothered by the probability of widespread violence if the ploy succeeds and the likelihood that failure would leave the party so weak and divided that ft would no longer represent a potential stumbling block. to Allende in his attempt to establish an authori- tarian Marxist state. Frei's "heyitation", however, may be the manuevering of the consumnate politician. Frei might believe that if the Christian Democrats (PDC) went en masse hat in hand to Allende after the elections —as Tomic did —they could expect to receive few meaningful -3- guarantees concerning the status of the military, education, the com- munications media and opposition political parties. But hy making the alternative of supporting Alessandri a credible one, the Christian Democrats would enonaously improve their bargaining position. This could explain Frei's apparent half-hearted comaitment to the stratagem. A special Comaission of five PDC leaders drew up a list of proposed guarantees and presented them to the POC Council on September 14. The Council will discuss these demands with Allende and then report in October to the party national comaittee on the results of the talks. The national coaanlttee will then set policy regarding the voting in Congress. Tb 'litarh, Military leaders pill probably proride tacit support to the anti-Allende moves, but only so long as these moves conform to constitutional norms and promise success without too much stress and risk of violence. If the politicians hesitate and bicker or if popular protests arise, the military might well disassociate themselves from the movement, fearful of cmnpromislng the military's arbiter role. Illustrative of the Armed Forces' desire to keep their options open, military leaders reportedly have been discussiog the status of the institution under an Allende administration with Popular Unity leaders and have also requested Frei supporters not to turn the September 19 military parade into a demonstration of popular support for Frei..
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