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James Curran's IMPACT Report

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James Curran's IMPACT Report 1 IMPACT Isle of Man Programme for Achievement of Climate Targets An independent report on options for targets and actions to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 Submitted to the Isle of Man Government James C Curran 31 October 2019 GD 2019/0102 2 Climate Change Action Plan 2020 to 2050 “Change will not come if we wait for some other person, or if we wait for some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek.” Barack Obama Foreword and Summary I have been privileged to act as the independent chair of the Climate Change Emergency Transformation Team. I have been received on the Isle of Man with memorable support, enthusiasm, and, as far as I can judge, overwhelming positivity for what I have tried to do. I want to record my wholehearted appreciation of all those, particularly members of the Transformation Team and the Analytical Team, who have been closely involved in creating this proposed action plan. They have worked well beyond what might be expected. However, at the end of the day, I take full responsibility for the content of this report. In the spirit with which this endeavour was undertaken, I am very well aware of its shortcomings and accept there will be some errors. The Team and myself continue to seek out challenge and inspiration to improve it further. In summary, this report, underpinned by a valuable collection of evidence in the Appendices, recommends a higher ambition pathway for the Isle of Man to play its full part - joining other developed nations around the world - in addressing the increasing dangers of climate change. A timetable of actions is laid out, in some detail over the first 3 years to 2023, with reasonable certainty to 2030, but more indicatively between 2030 and 2050, as decisions in later years will be influenced by changing expectations and technologies. The cost of the recommended pathway is estimated in terms of both public and private sector investment. The report makes clear that, essential to delivery, will be robust governance, wide public support, and leadership at all levels of civic society. The transition to net-zero may not be easy, but it can be done, and there will be many co- benefits: creating a respected, healthier, more successful, resilient and future-proofed nation. James Curran, 31 October 2019 GD 2019/0102 3 Index of IoM climate change report and action plan 1. Task ........................................................................................................... 6 2. Context ....................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Scientific background ...................................................................... 6 2.2 International context ........................................................................ 7 2.3 National commitments .................................................................... 8 2.4 Ecological emergency ..................................................................... 8 3. Motivation to act ......................................................................................... 8 3.1 Co-benefits ..................................................................................... 9 4. Political commitment ................................................................................... 10 4.1 Explanation of net-zero ................................................................... 10 5. Underpinning principles .............................................................................. 10 5.1 Vision for 2050 ................................................................................ 12 5.2 Target setting .................................................................................. 13 6. Building on previous work ........................................................................... 15 7. Approach to task ......................................................................................... 15 8. Possible pathways ...................................................................................... 16 8.1 Higher and lower ambition pathways............................................... 16 8.2 Higher ambition scenario to 2030 .................................................... 18 8.3 Lower ambition scenario to 2030 .................................................... 21 9. Delivery of actions: suggested governance model ...................................... 24 10. Detailed actions by sector........................................................................... 25 a) review cycle for plan ............................................................................. 25 b) offsetting ............................................................................................... 25 c) education, awareness, engagement ..................................................... 26 d) peatland, woodland, including ecosystems ........................................... 26 e) energy efficiency in buildings, including public buildings ....................... 27 f) energy supply ....................................................................................... 28 i) existing generation .................................................................... 28 ii) onshore wind/solar .................................................................... 29 iii) offshore wind ............................................................................. 29 iv) grid strengthening ..................................................................... 30 v) other renewable sources ........................................................... 30 g) space heating ....................................................................................... 31 h) transport, public transport, waste transport ........................................... 31 i) active travel .......................................................................................... 33 j) agriculture, local produce/marketing ..................................................... 34 k) commercial, industrial, waste, circular economy ................................... 35 l) blue carbon ........................................................................................... 36 m) other actions in brief, including: ............................................................ 36 i) procurement .............................................................................. 36 ii) shipping .................................................................................... 36 iii) aviation ..................................................................................... 37 iv) planning system & net-gain ...................................................... 37 v) sustainable drainage systems ................................................... 38 vi) climate change adaptation ....................................................... 38 vii) potential gas field ...................................................................... 38 n) funding possibilities ............................................................................... 39 GD 2019/0102 4 11. Knowledge gaps ......................................................................................... 40 12. Acknowledgements .................................................................................... 40 13. Timeline of actions...................................................................................... 40 13.1 Higher ambition actions................................................................... 41 13.2 Lower ambition actions ................................................................... 45 13.3 Comment on action timelines .......................................................... 49 14. Recommendations...................................................................................... 49 15. Reflections ................................................................................................. 49 Executive Summaries and Appendices (links) 1. Terms of Reference ........................................................................... 50 2. (a) IoM emissions (Aether report) .......................................................... 53 (b) Other GHGs .................................................................................... 55 3. Just Transition ..................................................................................... 56 4. Population health ................................................................................. 57 5. Guidance ............................................................................................. 59 6. Contacts .............................................................................................. 60 7. Offsetting ............................................................................................ 65 8. Embedding zero carbon concepts........................................................... 67 9. School curriculum ................................................................................. 68 10. Sequestration (a) Peatland ........................................................................................ 70 (b) Woodland, habitat connectivity ........................................................ 73 (c) Blue carbon .................................................................................... 77 11. Energy efficiency – Government estate .................................................. 79 12. Energy efficiency – buildings ................................................................
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