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Sangamo Therapeutics, Inc. (SGMO) INITIATE Buy July 7, 2020 Sangamo Therapeutics, Inc. (SGMO) Initiating on SGMO with BUY rating & Initiate Buy $22/sh PT Price Target: $22.00 SGMO is a company with a deep pipeline built on two technologies: gene therapy (which we believe drives near-term upside) and a zinc finger gene Price (Jul. 6, 2020) $9.83 editing platform that can edit genes and genome regulation capabilities to fine 52-Wk Range $12.22-$5.05 tune gene expression at the DNA level. Our deep dive into their biology is Market Cap ($M) $1,385 behind our conviction (see pages 13 -20). ADTV 1,583,665 There are two key parts to our thesis: Shares Out (M) 140.9 1. Near-term, we see potential upside from the SB-525 gene therapy program Short Interest Ratio/% Of Float 14.7% partnered with Pfizer (PFE; NR) for Hemophilia A, which competes with TR to Target 123.8% BioMarin’s (BMRN;Karnauskas, BUY) ValRox (PDUFA Aug 21). With Enterprise Value ($M) $837.9 SB-525 expected data in 2H20, investors will compare factor levels and durability. If SGMO’s data holds and durability is comparable, we could see SB-525 uptake in the market by competing on price. If the data is better, Cash And Equivalents $547.0 we think SGMO could get higher penetration. At peak, we model ~$1.5B in ($M) WW sales at 100% probability; however, we think the street is factoring only 30% probability of success. 2019A 2020E 2021E 2. We see potential long-term upside from their gene editing technology, which Curr. Prior Curr. Prior has generated interest from large-cap biotech and pharma with combined EPS collaboration value of ~$7B (excluding royalties), and we think greater 1Q ($0.41) ($0.37) -- -- NA 2Q ($0.03) ($0.30) -- -- NA upside could come from their collaboration with Biogen (BIIB; Karnaukas, 3Q ($0.24) ($0.31) -- -- NA BUY) (~$2.4B in milestones excluding royalties) for 12 pipeline products in 4Q $0.04 ($0.34) -- -- NA neurology. If one of these products works, we could see further upside as it CY ($0.85) ($1.31) -- ($0.68) -- P/E NM NM NM could be a positive read-through to the rest of the pipeline and we’ll have to Consensus EPS wait for initial data potentially in 2021/2022. CY ($0.85) ($0.79) ($1.38) FYE Dec Over next 12- to 18-months , there is more potential upside as more credit to the pipeline and platform could give an additional 30% upside to the stock based on investor confidence behind Hem A. With $363M as of 1Q20 and $350M in upfront payments from BIIB, SGMO has cash runway into 2022 and beyond. Key risks: 1) Clinical risk with SB-525 in Hem A if it does not provide sustained responses & proves inferior to ValRox; 2) Clinical risk of lack of durability with ST-400/BIVV003 in beta-thal and SCD; 3) Clinical risk for Fabry disease. Catalysts: 1) BMRN ValRox PDUFA 8/21/20; 2) 12-month SB-525 data in 2H20; 3) ST-400/BIVV003 (SNY) data in 2021; 4) Ph 1/2 Fabry data YE2021. Valuation: Our $22 PT is derived by a probability adjusted DCF. We believe our 12.5% discount rate is appropriate for risks associated with SMID-cap biotech. We model peak WW sales of ~$1.5B of SB-525 in Hem A with peak penetration of 20%, and commercialized by PFE with SGMO receiving low teens to double- Nicole Germino, MPH Robyn Karnauskas, Ph.D. 212-590-0952 212-319-5578 [email protected] [email protected] Srikripa Devarakonda, Ph.D. Minh Vong, Ph.D. 212-303-4173 212-326-6074 [email protected] [email protected] SEE PAGE 89 FOR REQUIRED DISCLOSURE INFORMATION Page 1 Equity Research Sangamo Therapeutics, Inc. digit royalty on net sales (we assume royalties from 14% to 20%). We model adjusted platform value of ~$6/sh. Page 2 of 91 Sangamo Therapeutics, Inc. R0 G70 B127 R245 G128 PRIMARY COLORS PRIMARY B37 R255 G164 B0 R0 G117 B201 SECONDARY COLORS SECONDARY R164 Sangamo Therapeutics, Inc (BUY, PT $22): Pipeline upside from G169 B173 genome regulation R246 Nicole Germino, MPH | Analyst | 212-590-0952 | [email protected] G198 B91 Robyn Karnauskas, PhD | Analyst | 212-319-5578 | [email protected] R0 G161 Kripa Devarakonda, PhD | Analyst | 212-303-4173 | [email protected] B223 TERTIARY COLORS TERTIARY R173 Minh Vong, PhD | Associate | 212-326-6074 | [email protected] G201 B232 R 64 G 64 B 64 R 102 TEXT COLORS TEXT G 102 B 102 Page 3 of 91 Sangamo Therapeutics, Inc. PM Summary: Initiating coverage on SGMO (Buy; PT $22/sh) Bull/Bear STRH Case Bull Case Bear Case 100% probability of success for SB-525 100% probability of success for 0% probability of success if SB-525 for Hem A and increased pricing to SB-525 for Hem A for Hem A fails $2M/Tx 25% PoS to Beta-Thal and SCD Cell Therapy and Genome No credit to pipeline 25% PoS to Fabry Regulation Collabs fail Assumptions 15% probability of success to No credit to platform 15% PoS to KITE Cell Therapy Collab KITE Cell Therapy Collab 15% probability of success to 15% PoS to BIIB Genome Regulation BIIB Genome Regulation Collab Collab 10% Other Platform 10% Other Platform (assuming add'l partnerships) (assuming additional partnerships) FV $22 $29 $6 Source: STRH Research www.suntrustrh.com Page 4 of 91 Sangamo Therapeutics, Inc. We model PT at $22/sh using DCF with discount rate of 12.5% and terminal value in 2030E We apply a discount rate of 12.5% in line with our other SMID caps and terminal growth rate of 2.0%. 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E GAAP EBIT (143) (107) 23 138 41 25 (41) 27 84 169 210 less: Taxes $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 ($29) Tax Rate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14% D&A $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $17 Stock based compensation $28 $38 $52 $70 $91 $113 $142 $177 $221 $277 $346 Change in Working Capital ($2) ($2) ($2) ($16) ($20) $13 $19 ($15) $0 ($18) $55 Capital Expenditures ($10) ($5) ($3) ($3) ($3) ($3) ($4) ($4) ($4) ($4) ($4) Free Cash Flow ($125) ($75) $71 $191 $110 $150 $118 $188 $304 $426 $594 Growth -40% -195% 168% -42% 36% -21% 60% 62% 40% 39% Discount Period 0.00 0.75 1.75 2.75 3.75 4.75 5.75 6.75 7.75 8.75 9.75 Discount Factor 1.00 0.92 0.81 0.72 0.64 0.57 0.51 0.45 0.40 0.36 0.32 Present Value of Cash Flows ($125) ($68) $58 $138 $71 $86 $60 $85 $122 $152 $188 Terminal growth rate 2.0% $700 FCF Terminal Value $5,769 $594 $600 Discount rate 12.5% NPV of FCF $766 $500 $426 NPV of Terminal Value $1,830 $400 $304 Total NPV $2,595 $M $300 Net Cash - (Debt) $547 $191 $188 $200 $150 Net Cash/Sh $4 $110 $118 $100 $71 SGMO $/ Share $22 Shares Outstanding 142 $0 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E Source: Company Reports and STRH estimates Source: STRH Research; Company Reports www.suntrustrh.com Page 5 of 91 Sangamo Therapeutics, Inc. Agenda • PM Summary • Key Differentiators: Key Differentiator #1: SGMO is an attractive and validated platform play Key Differentiator #2: SGMO uses in-house cGMP facility and dedicated external manufacturing capacity Key Differentiator #3: SGMO’s zinc finger platform is a powerful editing tool Key Differentiator #4: SB-525 Hem A gene therapy could be competitive Key Differentiator #5: ST-920 has upside potential as the first gene therapy for Fabry • Key Controversies: Key Controversy #1: Is there first mover advantage in Hemophilia A? Key Controversy #2: Can SGMO generate comparable durability Beta-thal/SCD? Key Controversy #3: Liver-targeted therapy in Fabry doesn’t work Source: STRH Research; Company Reports www.suntrustrh.com Page 6 of 91 Sangamo Therapeutics, Inc. PM Summary: Initiating on SGMO (Buy; PT $22/sh) SGMO is a company with a deep pipeline built on two technologies: gene therapy (which we believe drives near-term upside) and a zinc finger gene editing platform that can edit genes and genome regulation capabilities to fine tune gene expression at the DNA level. Our deep dive into their biology is behind our conviction (see pages 13 -20). There are two key parts to our thesis: 1. Near-term, we see upside from SB-525 gene therapy program partnered with PFE for Hemophilia A, which competes with BMRN’s ValRox (PDUFA Aug 21). With SB-525 expected data in 2H20, investors will compare factor levels and durability. If SGMO’s data holds and durability is comparable, we could see SB-525 uptake in the market by competing on price. If the data is better, we think SGMO could get higher penetration. At peak, we model ~$1.5B in WW sales at 100% probability; however, we think the street is factoring only 30% probability of success. 2. We see long-term upside from their gene editing technology, which has generated interest from large-cap biotech and pharma with combined collaboration value of ~$7B (excluding royalties), and we think greater upside could come from their collaboration with BIIB (~$2.4B in milestones excluding royalties) for 12 pipeline products in neurology. If one of these products works, we could see further upside as it could be a positive read-through to the rest of the pipeline and we’ll have to wait for initial data potentially in 2021/2022.
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