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COMPANY UPDATE MUTHOOT FINANCE Growth tailwinds outweigh Kerala disruption India Equity Research| Banking and Financial Services COMPANYNAME Muthoot Finance’s (Muthoot) operations in its home town Kerala have EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS beene disrupted following politically motivated employee protests. Absolute Rating BUY Management is now planning to gradually scale down operations in the Rating Relative to Sector Outperform state—of the 608 branches therein, closure of 43 has already been Risk Rating Relative to Sector Medium announced. No doubt, disruption in the home state will weigh on the Sector Relative to Market Overweight business outlook. However, we believe: a) the impact will be contained given Muthoot’s diversified and pan-India presence with Kerala contributing mere 4-5% to AUM, ~13% employees/branches and 10% of MARKET DATA (R: MUTT.BO, B: MUTH IN) CMP : INR 585 borrowing through gold bonds; b) though closure of Kerala operations will Target Price : INR 692 question collection efficiency, LGD will be negligible given secured nature of gold; and c) recent sharp uptick in gold prices will have tailwinds intact 52-week range (INR) : 657 / 356 Share in issue (mn) : 400.7 for 95% of its operations and growth will settle around guided 15-17%. We M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 235 / 3,272 expect improved growth tailwind to outweigh uncertainty in Kerala Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 1,233.6 operations and earnings will be intact. Maintain ‘BUY’ with TP of INR692. SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) Disruption in home town business; diversified book to limit impact Current Q4FY19 Q3FY19 Defying employee compensation-related allegations, management has decided to scale Promoters * 73.5 73.5 73.5 down business in phased manner in Kerala which will certainly lead to disruption. MF's, FI's & BK’s 8.4 9.8 11.1 However, we expect the impact to be limited as the state’s contribution has been FII's 13.9 12.4 11.0 slipping consistently—now at ~4.5% of AUM (INR16bn) compared to South India’s ~50%. Others 4.3 4.3 4.4 Moreover, Kerala’s productivity metrics are not encouraging—per branch outstanding at * Promoters pledged shares : NIL (% of share in issue) INR26mn (compared to INR86mn for pan-India), this is also reflected in 200 branches being closed in Kerala over last 2 years. PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) Rising gold prices will provide growth tailwinds EW Banks and Stock Nifty Financial Sharp rally in gold prices in the previous quarter along with improved gold loan demand Services Index outlook will aid AUM growth (AUM per gram will see 10-15% uptick). Consequently, 1 month 0.9 (0.6) (5.0) despite disruption in Kerala, we expect growth to settle in the guided 15-20% range. 3 months (5.3) (7.7) (12.7) Even after considering cost attached to business discontinuation and higher credit cost, 12 months 48.4 (5.6) (2.7) earnings will still remain intact (refer table 1 for more granular details). Outlook & valuation: Tailwinds outweigh disruption; retain ‘BUY’ Medium-term improved outlook for Muthoot is marginally disrupted by the near-term disruption in home town operations. However, business fundamentals remain strong Kunal Shah +91 22 4040 7579 with steady growth, limited LGD and stable funding cost. We maintain ‘BUY/SO’. [email protected] Financials (INRmn) Year to March FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Prakhar Agarwal +91 22 6620 3076 Net revenue 43,024 46,439 51,494 57,322 [email protected] Net profit 17,203 19,721 21,977 24,862 Diluted EPS (INR) 43.0 49.3 54.9 62.2 Prashant Ghuge +91 22 4063 5517 Adj. BV (INR) 162.8 216.8 254.9 298.6 [email protected] Price/ Adj book (x) 3.6 2.7 2.3 2.0 Diluted P/E (x) 13.6 11.9 10.7 9.4 ROE (%) 24.1 23.3 22.1 21.3 September 9, 2019 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited Banking and Financial Services Table 1: Detailed financial impact on overall earnings post disruption in Kerala – PAT remains intact Ex-Kerala Kerala Overall INR mn FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E AUM 3,19,853 3,83,798 4,46,262 16,000 8,957 6,891 3,35,853 3,92,755 4,53,154 AUM growth (%) 20.0 16.3 (44.0) (23.1) 16.9 15.4 AUM proportion (%) 95.2 97.7 98.5 4.8 2.3 1.5 Branches (nos.) 3,857 4,007 4,147 623 373 298 4,480 4,380 4,445 Branches proportion (%) 86.1 91.5 93.3 13.9 8.5 6.7 Employees (nos.) 21,744 22,840 23,845 3,000 1,641 1,192 24,744 24,481 25,037 Employees proportion (%) 87.9 93.3 95.2 12.1 6.7 4.8 Employees/branch (x) 5.6 5.7 5.8 4.8 4.4 4.0 5.5 5.6 5.6 AUM/branch (INR) 83 96 108 26 24 23 75 90 102 AUM/gm (INR) 1,983 2,181 2,334 1,983 2,181 2,334 1,983 2,181 2,334 AUM (in tonnes) 161 176 191 8 4 3 169 180 194 AUM (kgs)/branch 42 44 46 13 11 10 38 41 44 Cost/employee (INR) 3,46,862 3,74,611 4,04,580 3,23,058 4,18,683 4,14,496 3,40,061 3,67,265 3,96,647 Rent/branch (INR) 4,48,362 4,66,296 4,84,948 4,48,362 4,66,296 4,84,948 4,48,362 4,66,296 4,84,948 Interest income 74,718 86,066 2,650 1,643 77,368 87,709 Interest expenses 26,423 30,998 472 479 26,894 31,477 Net interest income 48,296 55,068 2,178 1,165 50,474 56,232 Fee income 997 1,073 23 17 1,020 1,090 Net revenues 49,292 56,141 2,201 1,181 51,494 57,322 Employee cost 8,351 9,444 972 587 9,322 10,031 Rent expenses 1,833 1,977 232 163 2,066 2,140 Other costs 4,518 5,078 658 460 5,176 5,538 PPoP 34,590 39,642 340 (28) 34,930 39,614 Provisions 1,286 1,474 90 182 1,377 1,656 PBT 33,304 38,168 249 (211) 33,553 37,958 Tax 11,490 13,168 86 (73) 11,576 13,095 PAT 21,814 25,000 163 (138) 21,977 24,862 RoA (%) 6.2 6.0 1.3 (1.7) 6.0 5.9 GNPLs 8,700 9,710 11,157 435 896 1,378 9,135 10,606 12,535 GNPLs (%) 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.7 10.0 20.0 2.7 2.7 2.8 Prov coverage (%) 20.0 22.0 24.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 20.0 22.3 24.7 Provisions 1,740 2,136 2,678 87 224 413 1,827 2,360 3,091 Net NPLs 6,960 7,574 8,479 348 672 965 7,308 8,246 9,444 Net NPLs (%) 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.2 7.5 14.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 Source: Company, Edelweiss research 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited Muthoot Finance Chart 1: Unproductive branches in Kerala have been closed over the years 5,000 20.0 4,000 17.0 3,000 14.0 3,443 3,490 3,605 3,683 3,857 3,894 (%) (Nos) 2,000 11.0 1,000 8.0 802 785 702 642 623 608 0 5.0 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Q1FY20 Kerala Rest of India Share of Kerala Source: Company Chart 2: Branch contribution of South has been declining due to pan-India expansion 100.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 7.0 14.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 16.0 16.0 80.0 16.0 16.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 60.0 (%) 40.0 65.0 64.0 62.0 62.0 61.0 60.0 20.0 0.0 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Q1FY20 South North West East Source: Company 3 Edelweiss Securities Limited Banking and Financial Services Muthoot Finance business earnings call: key takeaway What has happened? • A few employees have joined a trade union (CITU; has support of the ruling party and union). Given the negligible number of employees joining the union, the company does not have to recognise it as per the current law. These employees have declared an indirect strike and prevented other employees from opening branches. Of the overall branches, 300 plus are being threatened and unable to operate. Muthoot’s response • Management has stated that all the branches that will face threats will be closed. Muthoot closed down 15 branches on September 5 and other 28 branches on September 6; rationale for further closures will be productivity and profitability. What will be the impact? • Muthoot commenced its business in Kerala and within eight decades the company also expanded outside the state. Business is Kerala accounts for mere 4.5% (on gold, 611 branches), 13.5% of branches and 3,000 employees. Productivity is much lower in Kerala at INR26.1mn per branch (INR85.7mn outside the state). • The rationale for having branches in Kerala was that it was the home state and till 2013 the company was doing gold bond debenture.
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