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South East Offices Key Towns Update of Activity

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South East Offices Key Towns Update of Activity OCCUPATIONAL MARKET UPDATE South East offices Key towns update of activity Q1 2020 Ashai committed to taking 36,800 sq ft at Brook House in Woking OCCUPATIONAL MARKET UPDATE PIERS LEIGH Principal South East Offices The stats for Q1 seem almost irrelevant given the lockdown situation we find ourselves in as we head into Q2. However, what they do tell us is that pre the effects of Covid-19 the market was in good shape generally, especially on the investment side. The big unknown is whether we can pick up where we left off when a degree of normality returns. Introduction Welcome to Avison Young’s South East quarterly update which focuses on 10 key markets Ten towns total take-up (sq ft) made up of in town and out of town markets covering the whole of the south east geographical Take up across SE 10 in Q1 area. In this update not only do we look back at the take up in Q1 but also the evolving picture 2015 1,427,620 1,888,160 around the UK’s response to the Global Pandemic brought on by Covid-19. We will also share sq ft our revised outlook for 2020 and how the market is coping with the lockdown measures and 420,000 social distancing which are currently in force and set to continue well into Q2 2020. Down compared to Q1 2019 by c.45% 2016 1,399,820 1,220,340 In this update we have looked at what sectors have On the investment side, most transactions that were 2017 1,224,590 1,262,180 been most active this year in each town, the latest in the pipeline transacted ahead of the end of Q1. Town centre vacancy rates and key developments coming to the However, those which only got agreed and went into market. We have also included key transactions across solicitors’ hands towards the end of March are more at 286,000 2018 1,259,290 1,812,420 the South East, some of which fall outside our 10 risk. The quarter day falling in the first week of lockdown sq ft barometer towns. also knocked confidence with a number of landlords 2019 977,000 1,305,190 falling well behind on rents received and, where Within the investment update we cover the whole of Out of town buildings had only just agreed terms, prospective the south east market, we analyse who the vendors and 2020 133,590 purchasers will be looking again at the situation. The purchasers were and look at the headline transactions. 134,000 285,900 average 5 year impact on the debt market will also be significant for We will also give our outlook on the implications of sq ft purchasers during Q2 2020; Material Uncertainty clauses Town centre Out of town Covid-19 on the market for the remainder of 2020. in valuations have meant the debt market has largely Overall Q1 2020, on both the occupational and ground to a halt. Headline rents average Key South East office occupational investment sides remained relatively unscathed by transactions in Q1 2020 Longer term implications of the lockdown and the what was a crisis in China and the Far East for most of government’s effort to battle Covid-19 are difficult £35.25 per sq ft • Xero taking the remaining 55,000 sq ft at AW the quarter, with the first known case of Covid-19 not to identify at this stage. Until we know how long James’s 100 Avebury Boulevard, Milton Keynes hitting the UK until late January 2020. By this stage a the current measures will be in place (at the time of • Eli Lilly taking 42,500 sq ft at CCLA’s 8 Arlington number of transactions that went through in Q1 were printing this has been extended by 3 weeks until early Q1 2020 vacancy rate SE 10 Square West, Bracknell fairly advanced and we had little idea of the situation May) we will not know how quickly life and the market we now find ourselves in. The UK only went into full lock • Asahi committing to 36,800 sq ft at CBREGI’s can return to a new normal. Valuation uncertainties Grade A Total down on the 23rd March, initially for a 3 week period, Brook House, Woking will only be exacerbated as the lockdown continues with only the hospitality and retail industry really feeling • Amgen taking 35,000 sq ft at L&G’s 216 with the declining amount of evidence coming the pinch before that stage. One key transaction that Cambridge Science Park, Cambridge through. The longer the enforced lockdown continues, 3.71% 9.47% has been a victim of the Covid-19 situation and the the more businesses will be at risk of survival which • PWC taking 28,500 sq ft at Columbia lockdown restrictions has been Surrey County new could lead to a jump in supply or tenant controlled Threadneedle’s 40 Clarendon Road, Watford headquarters acquisition at Midas in Woking. space being released to the market. Where we will see significant change is in how we use offices and the value they have to business. Our predictions on this, I hope, will make interesting reading to occupiers, investors and developers. OCCUPATIONAL MARKET UPDATE Varsity corridor CAMBRIDGE The Cambridge office market started off Q1 2020 in Looking ahead, the Grade A vacancy rate and Key Sector Activity good shape on the back of record rents achieved in the overall vacancy rate remain low at 1.84% and Headline Rent 2019 and good levels of demand recorded for both 9.64% respectively. Cambridge has a much higher Sector Take up sq ft % in town and out of town office space. Take up was proportion of Tech and Bio Tech companies than 86,000 sq ft for Q1 which compared with Q1 2019 at other centres in the South East. These are likely to Computing & Software 43,000 55% Town centre 150,000 sq ft represents a 44% decline on the same be the sectors which will drive demand in the short Science 35,000 45% period last year, but is still a healthy level of take up to medium term so we expect the resilience of the £46.00 and higher than the Q1 figures for 2015 and 2018 Cambridge occupier base to continue and that per sq ft over the last 5 years. It is worth noting, Q1 2019 had rents in the short term will remain at or close to Vacancy rates Q1 2020 the two largest transactions of the year totalling their historic highs. Like a number of other markets, Grade A Total Out of town 112,000 sq ft, to Astra Zeneca and Displaylink (UK). incentives will be the first to come off and whilst supply of Grade A space remains low, headline rents Key transactions in Q1 were:- £34.00 will maintain their current levels for the time being 9.64% per sq ft • Feature Space taking 26,000 sq ft at 140 even if demand drops off in Q2 and Q3 as a result of 1.84% Cambridge Science Park. the lockdown measures in place. • Amgen taking 35,000 sq ft at 216 Cambridge Science Park at £34 per sq ft, a new out of town high, on a 10-year lease and displacing other Annual take up interest in the building. Quarter 1 take up • In the city centre Apple took 17,000 sq ft at Kett 2015 417,980 260,010 House on Station Road at a record rent of £40 per sq ft for Grade B space on a short term lease, ahead Town centre of their move into their new pre-let building on 2016 sq ft 522,450 21,980 Station Road. 17,000 2017 357,290 159,020 Out of town 2018 262,280 267,520 60,820 sq ft 2019 292,550 187,660 51,900 sq ft Grade A 2020 60,820 5 year average 5 year 25,900 sq ft Grade B 17,000 Town centre Out of town OCCUPATIONAL MARKET UPDATE MILTON KEYNES 2020 began well in Milton Keynes with activity from At the end of Q1, take up was 30% of the 5 year Key Sector Activity the Fintech and Infrastructure sectors underlying average, but all in town. Although the rest of the Headline Rent the town’s appeal to a wide variety of occupiers. Q1 year remains uncertain, supply of grade A space Sector Take up sq ft % take up reached 80,000 sq ft which was 5.6% up on is extremely limited which should help to sure up Q1 2019 and three times higher than the Q1 take up headline rents. Similarly to other markets, incentives Accountancy & consultancy 56,000 70% Town centre in 2018. are likely to drift out initially, with out of town rents Central Government 22,800 28% beginning to soften first where there is the greater £27.50 In January, Xero took the remaining 55,000 sq ft at amount of supply across all Grades, especially Grade B. per sq ft AW James’s 100 Avebury Boulevard which took the HR/Recruitment 1,450 2% building to fully let shortly after practical completion. Out of town This was followed by HS2 and GI Group taking 14,000 Vacancy rates Q1 2020 sq ft at Exchange House, and the Secretary of State for Grade A Total £21.50 Transport taking 10,000 sq ft at One Grafton Mews. per sq ft 6.25% 2.01% Annual take up Quarter 1 take up 2015 239,720 101,750 Town centre 2016 80,260 sq ft 185,360 108,060 2017 104,530 76,360 Out of town 2018 178,880 109,810 0 sq ft 2019 81,950 136,820 56,000 sq ft Grade A 2020 80,260 5 year average 5 year 24,260 sq ft Grade B Town centre Out of town OCCUPATIONAL MARKET UPDATE OXFORD There were two transactions in Q1, both at Oxford The Bellhouse Building on Oxford Science Park is the Key Sector Activity Business Park, totalling 18,000 sq ft at rents of £30.00 only scheme in the development pipeline due to Headline Rent per sq ft.
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