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Coastal West Sussex Strategic Housing Market Assessment

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Coastal West Sussex Strategic Housing Market Assessment Coastal West Sussex Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report: May 2009 GVA Grimley Ltd 10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR 0870 900 8990 www.gvagrimley.co.uk This report is designed to be printed double sided. Coastal West Sussex Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report: May 2009 Contact: Mike Taylor Tel: 020 7911 2754 Email: [email protected] www.gvagrimley.co.uk Coastal West Sussex Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................ 1 2. DEFINING THE HOUSING MARKET AREA ................................................................. 7 3. STRUCTURE AND COMPOSITION OF THE HOUSING OFFER................................ 36 4. ACTIVE MARKET........................................................................................................ 65 5. DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS .......................................................................................... 90 6. LOCAL ECONOMIC TRENDS................................................................................... 110 7. BRINGING THE EVIDENCE TOGETHER ................................................................. 134 8. FUTURE HOUSING MARKET................................................................................... 140 9. HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT............................................................................ 170 10. HOUSING REQUIREMENTS OF SPECIFIC GROUPS ............................................. 207 11. HOUSING VIABILITY ................................................................................................ 230 12. CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................... 239 13. FRAMEWORK FOR MONITORING AND REVIEW................................................... 262 May 2009 Coastal West Sussex Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 The local authorities across West Sussex have commissioned GVA Grimley, working with GL Hearn, to prepare a Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA). This is the Final Report of the Strategic Housing Market Assessment for the Coastal West Sussex Housing Market. 1.2 The Coastal West Sussex Housing Market extends along the South Coast from Hove to Hayling Island and inland to the A283 Corridor and Midhurst. This includes the four local authority districts of Adur, Arun, Chichester and Worthing. PURPOSE OF THE SHMA 1.3 PPS3: Housing1 identifies the importance of understanding sub-regional housing markets, and taking into account market information when developing planning policies for housing provision. Strategic Housing Market Assessments (SHMAs) are intended to achieve this. They are to be a key mechanism for considering the mix of housing required, and together with Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessments (SHLAAs), are intended to inform the level of future housing provision. These assessments provide an evidence base for and are intended to inform Local Development Frameworks (LDFs) and future revisions to Regional Spatial Strategies (RSSs), as well as regional and local housing strategies. 1.4 The Government published Practice Guidance on undertaking Strategic Housing Market Assessments in March 20072 (and revised in August 2007). This identifies the value of SHMAs in assisting policy development, decision-making and allocation of housing investment resources by: • Enabling regional bodies to develop long-term strategic views of housing need and demand to inform regional spatial strategies and regional housing strategies; • Enabling local authorities to think spatially about the nature and influence of housing markets in respect to their local area; • Providing robust evidence to inform policies aimed at providing the right mix of housing across the whole market area – both market and affordable housing; • Providing evidence to inform policies about the level of affordable housing required, including the need for different sizes of affordable housing. May 2009 1 Coastal West Sussex Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report • Supporting local authorities to develop a strategic approach to housing through consideration of housing need and demand in all housing sectors – owner occupied, private rented and affordable – and assessment of the key drivers and relationships in the housing market; • Drawing together the bulk of evidence required for local authorities to appraise strategic housing options including social housing allocation priorities, the role of intermediate housing products, stock renewal, conversion, demolition and transfer; and • Ensuring the most appropriate and cost-effective use of public funds. 1.5 SHMAs are intended to be prepared for ‘functional’ sub-regional housing markets, which often transcend administrative boundaries. The eight local authorities (the seven Districts Councils and the County Council) have come together as a Housing Market Partnership to commission the SHMAs. 1.6 This SHMA has been prepared at a time of significant flux in housing market conditions. It both considers and addresses these short-term dynamics. The document is however intended to inform planning policies which adopt a long-term perspective and provide a framework for development for fifteen years or more. It therefore rightly focuses on understanding potential housing demand over the longer-term to provide a basis for this, accepting that there are uncertainties and risks to predicting future changes. SHMA AIMS AND OBJECTIVES 1.7 The SHMA will provide a fit for purpose basis to develop housing and planning policies by considering the characteristics of the housing market, how key factors work together and the probable scale of change in future housing need and demand. For the purposes of the independent examination into the ‘soundness’ of Local Development Plans, the Strategic Housing Market Assessment will be considered robust and credible if it provides, as a minimum, all the core outputs and meets the requirements of the process criteria set out in the Guidance. The Core Outputs are set out below. 1 CLG (November 2006) Planning Policy Statement 3 (PPS3): Housing 2 CLG (March 2007) Strategic Housing Market Assessments: Practice Guidance May 2009 2 Coastal West Sussex Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report Figure 1.1: SHMA Core Output Requirements2 1 Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition and tenure 2 Analysis of past and current housing market trends, including the balance between supply and demand in different housing sectors and price/ affordability. Description of key drivers underpinning the housing market 3 Estimates of total future numbers of households, broken down by age and type where possible 4 Estimates of current number of households in housing need 5 Estimates of future households that will require affordable housing 6 Estimates of future households requiring market housing 7 Estimates of the size of affordable housing required 8 Estimates of household groups who have particular housing requirements 1.8 This SHMA is being undertaken in accordance with the Practice Guidance. It includes an assessment of housing needs but incorporated into a wider process with the aim of understanding the operation of the housing market and future housing requirements across tenures. The assessment of housing needs is to be undertaken using secondary data sources, without primary survey work. The Guidance sets out that whether the assessment is based upon secondary or survey data should not be a factor in determining whether the assessment is robust and credible, as no single approach or particular dataset will result in a definitive assessment of housing need and demand. 1.9 The Government’s Practice Guidance sets out a structure and key research questions for the SHMA. These are set out below. Figure 1.2: Key Research Questions2 Stage Step Research Questions Current 1. The demographic and • What is the current demographic profile of Housing economic context the area? Market • What is the current economic profile? • How have these profiles changed over the last 10 years? 2. The housing stock • What is the current housing stock profile? • How has the stock changed over the last 10 years? 3. The active Market • What do the active market indicators tell us about current demand, particularly house prices/affordability? • How has demand changed? 4. Bringing the evidence • How are market characteristics related to together each other geographically? • What do the trends in market characteristics tell us about the key drivers in the market area? • What are the implications in terms of the balance between supply and demand access to housing? May 2009 3 Coastal West Sussex Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report • What are the key issues for future policy/strategy? Future 1. Indicators of future • How might the total number of households Housing demand change in the future? How are household Market types changing, e.g. is there an aging population? • How might economic factors influence total future demand? • Is affordability likely to worsen or improve? 2. Bringing the evidence • What are the key issues for future together policy/strategy? Housing Need 1. Current housing need • What is the total number of households in housing need currently (gross estimated)? 2. Future need • How many newly arising households are likely to be in housing need (gross annual estimate)? 3. Affordable housing supply • What is the level of existing affordable
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