Belarus - A Unique Case in the European Context?

By Peter Kim Laustsen*

Introduction Remaking of World Order”2 , where he ex- Federation, Ukraine, Romania, Bosnia and pressed a more pessimistic view. It was Herzegovina, Croatia, the Former Since the end of the Cold War and the claimed that the spreading of liberal de- Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and break-up of the Soviet Union, a guiding mocracy had reached its limits and that Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) did paradigm in the discussions concerning outside its present boundaries (primarily support Huntington’s theory. political changes in Central and Eastern Western Europe) this form of government The development in the latest years has Europe has been a positive and optimis- would not be able to take root. shown progress in all but a few of the tic believe in progress towards the vic- The political development that took above mentioned states. Reading Freedom tory of a liberal democracy. This view was place in the years after the fall of the Ber- House’s surveys on the level of political clearly expressed by Francis Fukuyama in lin Wall and the birth and rebirth of the rights and civil liberties gives hope. his widely discussed book “The End of successor states of the Soviet Union, Widely across Europe these rights and lib- History and the Last Man”1 . The optimistic Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia did not erties have been and are still expanding view of the political changes was however however support Fukuyama’s claim. On and deepening. One state does clearly sepa- challenged by Samuel P. Huntington in the contrary, the political upheaval in, for rate itself from the trends in Eastern and his book “The Clash of Civilizations and the instance, Slovakia, Belarus, the Russian Central Europe: Belarus. According to * Mr. Peter Kim Laustsen is a Master student of Political Science at the Department of Political Science at the University of Aarhus, Denmark, and is a former Academic Assistant in the Baltic Defence College Institute for Defence Studies. The article is based on a paper from January 2003.

65 Freedom House, the political and civil describe Belarus as one of the wealthier Belarusian National Republic created af- rights and liberties have worsened since republics socially as well as economically. ter German Kaiser’s protection under the 1994/1995 and continue to do so. The Belarus went through a massive eco- First World War. purpose of this article is an attempt to nomic and industrial modernization af- The commonality between these two explain the causes to the specific political ter the end of the Second World War. units is the absence of an effect on the developments in Belarus and to charac- The developments in the political sphere Belarusian consciousness today. Both Po- terize the political regime. could only take place after the death of land and Lithuania largely possess mo- Josef Stalin, after which the political elite nopoly on the state continuity from the The starting point of obtained a certain degree of autonomy Lithuanian Grand Duchy. The end of the Belarus in relation to Moscow and because of that state was that it was split between the ma- a relatively high degree of internal self- jor powers of the time. The Belarusian part Two critical factors can be said to have rule. ended up under Russian control, and the existed in Belarus: modern internal struc- Another characteristic feature of the period was characterized by a cultural, re- tures and an existing state structure. Ac- Belarusian case is the presence of a crisis ligious, and political repression with Rus- cording to a survey conducted by of sovereignty. Compared to, for instance, sian attempts to erase all traces of a Deutsche Bank in 1990 and repeated by the three Baltic states history shows that Belarusian identity. This co-optation of the Kuzio & Nordberg3 , Belarus had a high there de facto has not existed a Belarusian Belarusian nation David Riach described score on the scales of the survey concern- state before. The first possible state that as de facto destruction of the Belarusian state ing industrialization, infrastructure, and can be said to have existed is the Grand and nation. The short time the National level of education in the population. Duchy of Lithuania due to the fact that a Republic existed, its establishment under Among the republics in the former So- large part of the present Belarusian terri- the German Kaiser’s protection and the viet Union, Belarus was clearly positioned tory was a part of the state formation, a lack of popular support has had an almost as number five, while Ukraine was posi- predominant part of the population was negative effect on the feeling of a state tioned as number one. This evaluation of of Slavic decent and the language used in among the population. The perception had Belarus is also supported by the United the state administration was Belarusian, been that the republic was an attempt to Nations Development Programme’s while the other possible state formation incorporate the Belarusian territory and (UNDP) yearly development reports that can be said to have been the short lived population under German rule.

66 The establishment of Belarus as a So- In contrast to Belarus, the three Baltic tria-Hungarian rule, where the govern- cialist Soviet Republic in 1919 exists states succeeded in maintaining their in- ment pursued a more liberal policy to- strongly in the minds of the Belarusian dependence from the end of the First wards ethnic groups within the state’s bor- population. The strongest memories for World War until the beginning of the ders. Despite the fact that the sovereignty Belarusians are of the time under Soviet 1940s. In this period the populations of was challenged, the populations in the rule with the fighting and resistance dur- the Baltic states built a strong conscious- Baltic states as well as in western part of ing the Second World War, the rebuild- ness about their independence, the state, Ukraine managed to preserve the memory ing, modernization and industrialization the nation, and their cultural heritage. The of a sovereign statehood, and because of after the war, and the rising standards of Soviet Union’s annexation of the Baltic that the states were more prepared for state living that followed these developments. states, the deportations and the armed and nation building project by the time Another important element was the fact struggle against the occupation until the of independence in 1991. that Belarus was accepted as a founding middle of the 1950s, all contributed to member of the United Nations. These strengthen the consciousness. The popu- Politico-institutional positive elements of the incorporation of lation of Belarus stood in an almost op- factors Belarus in the Soviet Union led the popu- posite situation at the Independence in lation to see itself as Soviet Belarusians 1991. In the three Baltic states the Another critical factor was the collapse rather than Belarusians. This problem has population’s memory of the statehood of the totalitarian rule imposed by the So- probably been further advanced by the and nationhood was a positive heritage viet Union. The collapse became clear in fact that Belarus as well as other republics that had positive effects during their battle the late 1980s and in the beginning of the in the Soviet Union experienced state for independence and nation building. 1990s. Two elements strongly contributed building before its nation building, the Another relevant comparison is in re- to undermining the totalitarian rule. It was opposite of the development that took lation to Ukraine which experienced a the meltdown of the nuclear reactor in place in most of the West, Central and longer period as an independent state. Chernobyl, Ukraine, in 1986 and the dis- East European states. The consequence has Despite the heavy Russian and Soviet sup- covery of the mass graves from the 1930s been that it has not been possible to build pression, a national consciousness did sur- and 1940s in the Kuropaty Forests north the national identity within the frame- vive. This was partly the effect of the fact of Minsk in 1988. These events had massive work of a state. that a part of the state came under Aus- consequences for the rule from Moscow.

67 The catastrophe revealed the inefficiency concerning the events were reported to The Chernobyl nuclear disaster and the lack of action from the totalitar- the public and where the findings in rela- ian state - at the regional level as well as at tion to the excavations were described. The meltdown of the nuclear reactor the state level. Both Ukraine and Belarus David Marples estimates that the discov- in Chernobyl occurred on the 26th of abstained from taking action indepen- ery of the mass graves had a decisive ef- April 1986, where the explosion caused dently of the centre in Moscow. The melt- fect on the possibilities for political an immense leak of airborne nuclear ma- down had a considerable psychological as changes in Belarus. terial. The consequences of this pollution well as physical effect on the population The reaction from the local govern- were a vast relocation of population and of Belarus, which was caused by the lack ment in Minsk was moderate. It was de- a large portion of the Belarusian land of information, help, and action from the cided to establish a commission which kept in quarantine (and therefore it can- local as well as the national government. had to go deeply into the matter. The not be used to produce agricultural This became obvious in relation to the result of the commission’s work was, for products). The accident had large eco- evacuations, which were only partial and large parts of the population, another nomic and human costs as well as conse- did not evacuate all the persons to safe piece of evidence of the regime’s charac- quences for the legitimacy of the Soviet and clean areas. This passive behaviour ter in Belarus. Despite the fact that over- Union. led the population to re-evaluate its atti- whelming evidence pointed in the direc- One reason for this event having such tude towards the state and caused a fall in tion of Stalin’s secret police as being the a deteriorating effect on the rule from confidence. perpetrators behind the massacres that Moscow was the reluctance of the authori- were conducted in the period between ties to reveal the existence of the catastro- The Kuropaty Graves 1930 and 1950, the most conservative phe and, later, also the extent of it. Not elements of the communist party denied until 40 hours after the accident did the The other event that contributed to that these claims were true. The old com- evacuation begin, and not until two days undermining the Soviet state was the dis- munist nomenklatura tried instead to after did Moscow recognize that an acci- covery of the mass graves in the Kuropaty blame the invasion forces from Nazi dent actually had happened. In fact, Mos- Forests north of the Belarusian capital Germany. The whole matter did however cow until that time deliberately tried to Minsk. The discoveries were published in further undermine the population’s trust stop any public mentioning of the event. two articles, where eye witnesses’ accounts in the regime and eroded the legitimacy

68 of the Soviet Union. The mistrust was Soviet Union. After the euphoria around the importance of the Belarusian national clear and it was further encouraged by the establishment, the Front tried to ob- identity to the nature of the transition. the regime’s aversion against recogniz- tain representation in the Belarusian par- This literature is almost concurrently stat- ing the horrors and crimes committed liament during the parliamentary election ing that the national identity and nation- under Stalin’s rule and its attempt to in 1990. The result was only a marginal alism have been very weak. This weakness conceal the clues. success, which was better than expected contributed to creating the base for a This degree of loyalty to Moscow has beforehand. The consequence was that the strong ruler taking over the power in been unique for Belarus compared to the old political regime continued to domi- Belarus. other republics in the Soviet Union, and nate the political sphere. Weak support The history of the Belarusian state can, it stands in strong contrast to the devel- behind the Front was further underlined as mentioned earlier, only be character- opment in the Baltic states. The loyal lead- during the following parliamentary and ized as being very limited. The same seems ership in Minsk and the massive presidential elections. The opposite devel- to be the case with the Belarusian nation russification of the Communist Party had opment could be observed in the Baltic building. This is a distinct feature for the the effect that a local communist elite was states and Ukraine. Regarding the elections long history, but it is much easier to iden- not developed, which could have headed in Ukraine, the popular movement suc- tify when looking more closely at the a democratic development as it happened ceeded in obtaining over one third of short history, that is the history after in Estonia. In the Baltic states the local the seats in the parliament, and also in Belarus was incorporated in the Soviet communist elites in fact led the liberaliza- Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania the popu- Union. tion of the totalitarian systems in con- lar fronts succeeded in winning the elec- The Belarusian language has through- trast to the development in Belarus. tions. out history been under a strong pressure. The revelation of the mass graves in After having been used as the official state the Kuropaty Forest initiated popular The national identity language in the Grand Duchy of protests and the establishment of the Lithuania, the Belarusian co-optation in Belarus Popular Front. The destiny of the There is no doubt that the national the Russian Empire put a strong pressure Front was however radically different identity is decisive for understanding the on the Belarusian language in a very nega- from what happened to the similar orga- political change. This can also be seen tive direction. The reason was a very sup- nizations in the other republics in the from the massive amount of literature on pressing policy towards the national lan-

69 guages, which led to the name “Belarus” Belarusian language was driven out of with a common identity for all inhabit- and the prevailing religion - the Uniate the educational institutions, from the ants from Estonia to Kazakhstan, from Church - being forbidden. The pressure media, and the public space and its use Vladivostok to Kaliningrad. The conse- on the national language continued un- was confined to the countryside. Only quences of this policy were the installa- der the Soviet Union - though interrupted among a limited number of academics tion of Russian public servants in the cen- by a period of relaxation from the co- that wished to preserve the Belarusian tral administration in Minsk. At the same optation in 1919 until Josef Stalin’s take- national identity was the language still time a massive influx of Russian workers over and power consolidation in the late used. Because of that the new generations took place. The reason was an increasing 1920s, where the liberal policy towards of Belarusians were influenced by the need for workers to man the positions in the different nationalities inside the So- Russian language and culture, and the the Belarusian industry because of the viet Union ended very abruptly and dra- national language was looked upon as an republic’s industrialization and the re- matically. The population in Belarus did, obstacle to social mobility. Stalin’s goal building, which took place after the enor- in the 1920s, experience a national was to eradicate all possible alternatives mous destructions during the Second reawakening where the national values to and all opposition against the centre World War. and symbols were allowed to bloom and in Moscow and Stalin’s position as the Another consequence of Stalin’s take- grow. The Belarusian language was intro- uncontested leader of the Soviet Union. over was re-drawing of the inter-repub- duced at the educational institutions and This eradication of alternative elites had lican borders, now inside the Soviet the intellectual elite was allowed a voice. serious long term consequences for the Union. These border changes meant that The immediate impression was that the course of political changes in a non- Latvia lost the Abrene area and that Es- national communist elite could function democratic direction. tonia lost the Narva area in the north as the basis for the development and con- Perhaps the most important cause for and the Pskov/Petseri area in the south - solidation of the national identity and the absence of national consciousness can all areas that were added to the Russian also as a basis for the creation of a na- be said to be the integration in the So- Socialist Federative Republic. Opposite tional elite. With Stalin’s final and total viet Union. Belarus was, during that time, these losses Lithuania gained a signifi- takeover in Moscow a massive purge of exposed to a massive and all-embracing cant area, the north eastern part of Po- political allies as well as opponents, in- sovjetization and russification. The goal was land as it looked like before the Second tellectuals, and cultural elite followed. The to create the Soviet Man - homo sovieticus – World War. Included in this area was

70 Vilnius, which was looked upon by some national consciousness because the cities tional symbol. The symbol had been Belarusians as the cultural capital for were natural centres for culture, politics, adopted as the national symbol of the Belarus. It has been pointed out that with and education. But the truth is that the Republic of Lithuania at its declaration the loss of this significant cultural, intel- Belarusians have never constituted a ma- of independence in 1918 and stayed as lectual, and national centre, Belarus lost jority in their own capital. The opposite such until the Soviet Union occupied its possibility for a national reawakening. was the case in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, Lithuania in 1940. It was kept as the na- That is why Stalin’s revision of the bor- which was dominated by the Ukrainians. tional symbol when Lithuania declared re- ders had major effects on the nation Extensive urbanization, weak national establishment of its independence in 1991. building in Belarus. Minsk became the consciousness, large Russian population, The coat of arms had also been used by new capital of Belarus as a consequence continuing inflow of workers from other the Poles during their rebellion against of the loss of Vilnius and became the republics, and strong influence from Russia in 1863-1864. The symbols were centre for the Russian influence, but Moscow exposed the Belarusian popula- also inextricably linked with the events Minsk never became such a powerful cen- tion to a strong influence from Russian that happened during the German occu- tre for Belarus which Vilnius had been language, culture, and it further weakened pation during the Second World War. A for the state previously. Belarusian consciousness. puppet-regime was established under Nazi- Another relevant development in this Another aspect of nationalism is the German protection, and the symbols from context is the growth of the cities after the “rallying point” that the national symbols the national republic from the 1910s were end of the Second World War. This growth - like the coat of arms and the state flag - adopted by these collaborators. That is was significant in Belarus, and the main provide. There are two historical groups why this symbol was looked upon very reason behind it was partly migration from of national symbols for the Belarusians: a negatively. It was linked to the suffering the countryside to the cities and partly the flag and a coat of arms from either the and destruction that occurred during the inflow of individuals from other repub- short-lived republic from the end of the Second World War. Because of the use of lics, who mainly settled in the cities where 1910s, or the Belarusian Soviet-republic the symbol by other states, by the short- the industry and the employment were to from the beginning of the 1920s. A pos- lived state in 1918, and by the Nazi-Ger- be found. sible national rallying point was the coat man friendly collaborators it was all but Urbanization could seem like a possi- of arms called the Pahonya. It was deeply impossible to use it as a national rallying bility of strengthening the Belarusian problematic if it was to be used as a na- point.

71 There are major differences between of that they were in a much stronger Tendencies in Belarus the developments in Ukraine and in position to build a nation and an inde- Belarus on this subject. Ukraine experi- pendent state. The state enced cultural re-awakening in its period On the basis of the discussion above of independence after the Russian revo- it must be concluded that a number of As all former Soviet republics Belarus lution, re-awakening that left permanent factors have been contributing to the faced the challenge of independence after traces. Also the fact that the historically developments in Belarus in a negative the Soviet Union collapsed. Despite the cultural and political centre of Ukraine, direction. Modernization of Belarus af- fact that Belarus de jure did exist as an Kyiv, remained the capital for the Ukrai- ter massive destructions during the Sec- independent state, realities were quite dif- nian Soviet Socialist Republic and re- ond World War, formidable challenges ferent. The extent of autonomy under mained populated mainly by the Ukrai- to the sovereignty of the state and the Moscow’s rule was very limited and re- nians contributed to a preservation and nation, absence of national identity, sup- stricted to some areas, and it was further strengthening of the Ukrainian national pression of language and culture, doubt- decreased by the fact that the regime in consciousness. The development in ful national symbols, and unclear geog- Minsk was considered to be one of the Ukraine and in Kyiv was very different raphy. Other factors have been collapse most Moscow-loyal regimes of the Soviet from what happened in Minsk, because of the totalitarian rule as well as the republics as well as the fact that heavy the Ukrainian capital became centre of gradual pullback leaving an intact, strong dominance of the Communist Party un- the Ukrainian nationalism and not of state administration ready to be taken dermined functioning of the state. This the Russian influence. There were also over. abnormal state structure has not been radi- major differences in the linguistic area. The lack of recent experience with cally changed under the rule of Lukashenka. The population as well as the media con- democratic governance during the Soviet Almost unanimously the analyses of the tinued to use Ukrainian, contrary to the rule and the social and economic crisis in Belarusian regime show that the merger situation in Belarus. Central and Eastern Europe can also be of Lukashenka’s regime and the state is So, all in all, it looked like both identified as factors contributing to the almost total. Lukashenka has in several cases Ukraine and the three Baltic states had birth and consolidation of the present personally interfered in the daily manage- much stronger national identities and rule in Belarus. ment and functioning of the state’s ad- consciousnesses than Belarus, and because ministration and has, via his position as

72 a president, directly as well as indirectly, eration, and the centralization and in- was placed under arrest - a clear example via his presidential administration, admin- creased power of the presidency have been of the gratitude that subordinates must istered the state as his personal domain achieved at the expense of the regional show towards Lukashenka. and attempted to form the state after his self-governance. Another example of Lukashenka’s desire. This has been made clear through It is also characteristic that Lukashenka behaviour is almost total nationalization his involvement in the abolishment of the tries to appoint loyal persons for impor- of the industry in Belarus. All local administrations. tant positions in the Belarusian adminis- privatization and liberalization initiatives Another clear example of the concen- tration. These persons are old friends from have been cancelled, and the development tration of power and the attempt to gain his childhood, from the area where he has in fact moved in the opposite direc- full control over the state is the voter’s was born and from the area where his tion - in the direction of a total state con- rejection of a proposal for a direct elec- political career started. Another example trol of business and trade. That makes it tion of the regional leaders - a rejection of Lukashenka’s expansion of his power difficult for private corporations to op- that followed the president’s recommen- and influence is that the number of posi- erate. The President has clearly managed dation. As a consequence the right to ap- tions directly responsible to the president to place the economic sphere under strict point these regional leaders still rests with has increased. control. the president. Lukashenka’s fear has been All these factors contribute to In these areas it is clear that there ex- to experience a development similar to Lukashenka’s construction of a state ad- ists a merger of the state and the regime. what has happened in the Russian Fed- ministration where all individuals owe It is also possible to observe strong rela- eration where the opposition against the their position to him, but developments tions between the president and his sub- regime had its basis in the local adminis- in Belarus also show that no one is safe. It ordinates, namely dependence of the lat- trations. Lukashenka’s actions are very is clearly demonstrated by the events con- ter on the president, and his unpredict- much alike the actions of Putin to cerning the former president of the able behaviour. Also weak state institu- strengthen the central government vis-à- Belarusian National Bank, Ms. Tarawa tions can be identified in Belarus. It was vis the federal subjects (regions, regional Vinnikava, who used to be one of exemplified by the constitution that col- parliaments and governors). Putin’s ac- Lukashenka’s closest political allies. She was lapsed under the pressure created by tions can be said to be a preventive move appointed by Lukashenka, but subse- Lukashenka. He managed to arrange the against potential disintegration of the fed- quently lost his confidence and trust and existing power structures according to his

73 wishes. Because of that many of the po- man fighting for justice and for the well- alism were also means used by Lukashenka. litical structures collapsed under the pres- being of the population. He legitimizes However, Lukashenka did not at all use sure of political infighting. his decisions on the basis of the support the Belarusian nationalism as a part of he won during his election to the presi- his political project. He did, on the con- The personality dency as well as on the support that his trary, try to de-nationalize Belarus, and proposals received when they were sent there are many examples showing this. Lukashenka tries to go out to the pub- to referendum. The population was, in 1995, asked to lic and present himself as a plain and simple Lukashenka’s electoral victory during vote in a referendum concerning three person, and he has successfully achieved the 1994 presidential election was not based themes converging around the this by communicating to the population on a solid and thoroughly prepared po- president’s de-nationalization project. clear and distinct messages and visions. litical platform that appealed to certain The first theme was whether Russian On the other hand, there has been no social groups in the population. Instead should be an official state language on active attempt at building an image of Lukashenka appealed to the resistance in the same terms as Belarusian. The second Lukashenka as a statesman. He has tried the population against the elite which theme concerned the introduction of to keep his image as a head of a collective ruled Belarus during and immediately new state colours and a new state coat of farm, an administrator. To show his pres- after independence and to the nostalgic arms, while the third theme concerned ence, concern, and worries he uses radio feelings many Belarusians had towards the economic integration with the Russian and television broadcasts to transmit his times during the Soviet Union, where Federation. All three proposals were ap- speeches to the population. He argues that large parts of the population enjoyed a proved in the referendum with 83,1%, there is a need for a strong man to take much better living standard compared to 75,0% and 82,4% of the votes cast. The control, to steer the state through the the present state. Lukashenka succeeded adoption of all three proposals supported difficult times and to manage the prob- in distancing himself from the politicians the president’s political project and has lems facing the state. Lukashenka has thus who led Belarus before, during, and after actively contributed to de-nationalization succeeded in establishing an intimate re- the independence and also from the prob- of Belarus, closer ties with the Russian lation with the Belarusian population. The lems that were a consequence of the up- Federation, and nostalgic praising of the relationship is based on Lukashenka’s cre- heavals. The nostalgic feelings about the Soviet Union. Belarus has, as mentioned ation of a myth about himself as a plain Soviet Union and the Belarusian nation- earlier, all throughout history been char-

74 acterized by a very weak national iden- between the electorate and the president problems and thereby saving the state. tity. This identity has further been weak- as charismatic. There exists a widespread That was also what Lukashenka showed to ened during Lukashenka’s regime, and and general perception of Lukashenka as the population as a head of the parlia- the period under the Soviet Union has a competent and understanding ruler. The mentary investigations into corruption. instead actively been used as a reference. electorate does not consider Lukashenka But an interesting fact about Belarus is That is also one of the reasons why the as being the cause of the problems. On that Lukashenka is not directly account- regime has been trying to rewrite the the contrary, the perception is that the able to the electorate. The government, history behind the Kuropaty Graves, bureaucrats and the politicians that are the parliament and the bureaucracy are which is widely perceived as a legacy of responsible for the dissolution of the instead used as “lightning rod” against Josef Stalin’s regime of terror. The offi- Soviet Union are the main cause of the attacks on the regime. That has manifested cial policy of the regime is to blame the problems. There is also a widespread ac- itself through the stable support invasion forces from Nazi Germany. An- cept of the need for a total delegation of Lukashenka has received over time. other aspect of the strategy is to power to the president and a non-com- strengthen the Slavic community between promise seeking approach to the govern- The constitutional hypocrisy the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and ing of the state. It is however worth not- Belarus and tie the three states close to- ing that Lukashenka does not exclusively Belarus’ first democratic constitution gether. The most clear attempt that has use his charisma as a legitimizing element. of March 1994 did in fact create the pos- been made since 1994 is the signing of He has also tried to derive legitimacy for sibility for a positive political develop- several political, economic, and military the concentration of power from the ar- ment in Belarus. A presidency was cre- agreements between the Russian Federa- gument of necessity - that it is necessary ated, and an independent Constitutional tion and Belarus linking the two states for an effective implementation of politi- Court became the supreme judicial power. together. cal decisions. Thus the arguments are based These institutions created the basis for a A part of Lukashenka’s strategy is also on rationality and bureaucratic efficiency. democratic, presidential republic. The to use his charisma in order to create a The characteristics described above president and the parliament were to be charismatic rule to legitimize his control show the extent of the delegation of power elected directly by the population. The over the state. A survey conducted by to Lukashenka. He is considered to be Constitutional Court was created to en- Gille-Belova4 presents the relationship the best person capable of solving the sure “checks and balances” vis-à-vis the

75 president. Its members were to be elected a referendum with 77,6% in favour of home, and he tore his ballot apart in by the parliament, while its functions were the question regarding the president’s public in front of the television cameras to be independent of both the legislative right to dissolve the parliament in case of and tried in every way to discredit the and executive powers. continued and gross violations of the parliament and its members. The strategy The presidency was, according to the constitution. This strengthening of the of Lukashenka was clear: with the massive 1994 Constitution, ascribed significant presidency lended Lukashenka a tougher backing he had received during the presi- powers. In a comparative analysis of the grip on power by giving him further dential election and the continuing sup- presidential systems of Europe and Cen- control over the legislative branch, but port he enjoyed in the population, a tral Asia, Frye describes the presidential the purging of democratic elements was showdown with the parliament and the systems of Ukraine and Belarus as having not over. Constitutional Court was a step towards some of the most powerful presidencies total control, total consolidation and con- in the post-Soviet area after the Russian 1995 parliamentary elections centration of power. If Lukashenka suc- Federation and Georgia. Since that analy- ceeded in obstructing a new election and sis, the developments in Belarus have fur- The event with the greatest impact on at the same time, managed to marginalize ther increased the president’s power, so Lukashenka assuming full control in the old parliament, he would be unchal- the Belarusian office today is one of the Belarus was the parliamentary election in lenged. most powerful offices. This claim is fur- 1995. The course of the election as well as An important factor in this uncom- ther supported by an account by Lars the result was contributing to Lukashenka pleted parliamentary election was the Elec- Johannsen5 , who in a similar analysis obtaining the position as an unchallenged toral Law, which stated that only election reaches the same conclusion. ruler. The election was scheduled to take results from constituencies where the The first “shots” against the democratic place in 1996, but because of political turn-out was over 50% could be declared constitution came from Lukashenka in pressure from the Belarusian Popular valid. If the turn-out was below this 1995, when he suggested adding further Front, it was hastened. threshold, the result was to be declared powers to the presidency. According to From the start Lukashenka did every- invalid. the 1994 Constitution it was not within thing in his power to prevent that the The election resulted in a clash between the president’s power to dissolve the par- election was carried through. Lukashenka Lukashenka and the old parliament. liament. Lukashenka succeeded in winning encouraged the population to stay at Lukashenka was of the opinion that the

76 mandate of the incumbent parliament had tions, and Lukashenka used the situation tional Court and the Electoral Commis- expired with the calling of the election, to rule Belarus by decrees from July 1994 sion as well as a number of members of while the parliament was of the opinion to January 1996. This meant no checks the new upper chamber, the Council of that it had to carry on until a new parlia- and balances existing whatsoever. the Republic of the parliament, the Na- ment was elected - an opinion that was tional Assembly. supported by the Constitutional Court. The constitutional changes in 1996 The first electoral round was held in a) May, and the result was that only 18 Mem- Lukashenka was elected as president According to the 1994 constitution, bers of Parliament were elected out of 260 under the 1994 constitution, and he ac- the Belarusian presidency was already one seats to be filled. The second round later cepted the constitution in the beginning of the strongest executive offices in Eu- in May resulted in the election of further of his term. But from his election and rope. But with the adoption of the 1996 102 members - a total of 120, but still not until 1996 Lukashenka’s rule frequently constitution it was further strengthened. enough of the required 174 seats (2/3 of clashed with the provisions of the consti- The new constitution gave the president the total number of seats as quorum). tution. These clashes culminated when further authority over both the legisla- Because of that the Belarusians had to Lukashenka introduced a draft for a new tive and the judicial branches of govern- participate in a by-election. The first constitution to eliminate any political ment. It became a right for the president round of the by-election was held in opposition and to ease his centralization to appoint six of the twelve members of November, and 20 seats were filled, while of power. The draft was sent to referen- the Constitutional Court. Thereby the ex- the second round which was conducted dum and was passed by 70,5% of the par- ternal and independent control of the in December led to the election of fur- ticipating electorate. president disappeared. The Constitutional ther 59 Members of Parliament. With this The changes included in Lukashenka’s Court had overruled Lukashenka’s deci- fourth election the required number of draft constitution concerned a) the presi- sions several times and declared his de- Members of Parliament was achieved, and dency, b) the parliament and c) the courts. crees as unconstitutional and invalid. the new parliament formed a quorum. The main themes were that Lukashenka’s Lukashenka, however, started to ignore Thereby the new parliament could assume term was extended by two years, that the these rulings. The rulings caused several powers. Until that time the old parliament president was given the right to appoint conflicts between the Court and the par- had been unable to carry out its func- a number of members of the Constitu- liament on one side and the president on

77 the other. These conflicts were stopped expire before a new parliament could so that in reality these are under the when Lukashenka brought the Court be elected. This would have created a president’s control. The consequence of under his control. situation where the president would be these realities is that parliamentarism in The power that was vested with the able to get full control of the state. The Belarus is an empty shell. This trend is parliament was also diminished when sig- move did not succeed, and because of enforced by the fact that the president nificant legislative powers were given to that the conflict between the two par- also has the power to appoint half of the president. Article 85 in the new con- ties started. the members of the Electoral Commis- stitution gave the president the right to The constitutional changes divided sion. The Commission has great influ- issue decrees corresponding to and on the the legislative power between two cham- ence on approval of parties and candi- same level as laws passed by the parliament. bers in the parliament. It lies within the dates in the elections and on the certi- This new power and the control of the power of the president to appoint one fication of the results. With that influ- Constitutional Court altogether produced eight of the members of the upper cham- ence the president and his administra- massive distortion of the democratic in- ber. That corresponds to eight members. tion gained the possibility to prevent stitutions. The president further got the The president is also empowered to dis- potentially dangerous candidates from power to appoint persons to several pow- solve the parliament and has been given running. The president’s increased pow- erful offices, a right that was a move in legislative powers. Lukashenka also used ers were visible in relation to the sec- the same direction. The appointments his power to influence the establishment ond parliamentary election in Belarus, could be used by the president to pay and composition of the lower chamber, which produced an ever more pro- loyal individuals for their support. the House of Representatives. He picked presidential parliament. In reality this 110 loyal members of the outgoing par- means that the parliament works as a b) liament to fill the seats in the new lower rubber stamp on the president’s pro- A part of the democratic facade in chamber and succeeded in creating a loyal posals. Evaluations from the Organiza- Belarus was to carry out multi-party elec- parliament. The reality was that Belarus tion for Security and Co-operation in tions. The first elections were conducted de facto was without an elected parliament Europe (OSCE) of the parliamentary under Lukashenka. As mentioned ear- in the period from 1996 to 2000. elections have been severely critical, and lier, Lukashenka hoped that the man- The legislative procedures have also the elections have been characterized as date of the parliament in session would been subject to presidential intervention neither free, nor fair.

78 c) in 1995. The last referendum themes con- It is clear that the referenda have been With the constitutional changes cerned i) changing the Day of Indepen- used to legitimize Lukashenka’s initiatives Lukashenka succeeded in taking control dence from the day that independence was and to demonstrate the support his ac- over parts of the judiciary, namely the declared after the break up of the Soviet tions enjoy among the population. Sev- judgement of the legality of the decision Union to the day where the Red Army eral themes have been put to referendum, taken by the government. Likewise, the liberated Minsk during the Second World and the result has been clear every time - presidential administration has great in- War, ii) liberalization of land market, iii) support behind the president and his rec- fluence on the appointment of judges at abolishment of the death penalty, iv) di- ommendations. This backing has given the local as well as national levels. The presi- rect election of regional leaders and v) president a credible and clear mandate dent is also entitled to dismissing judges financing state institutions via the cen- from the population. Lukashenka has also serving in the Constitutional Court as tral government budget or via a fund used these referenda to create an image of well as in the Supreme Court. This means controlled by the president outside par- himself as a person in close contact with that the judicial power de facto remains liamentary supervision. The first and last the electorate and as a person who listens under Lukashenka’s control. proposals were adopted with a large ma- to the voice of the people. The president’s Another consequence is that it has be- jority of votes (88,2%), while the rest of direct contact with the society is used by come impossible to remove the president. the proposals were rejected, as the presi- Lukashenka to distance himself from the Although there is a de jure possibility, the dent recommended prior to the referen- old power elite. demands for removing the president are dum. All the proposals mentioned above This can be explained by the weakness impossible to fulfil. During less than one have contributed to the continued con- of institutions in Belarus. The constitu- month the parliament must complete the solidation of Lukashenka’s power and tion, the electoral law, the parliament and consideration regarding a removal and position. They also strengthened denation- the court system were all weak when cre- adopt a decision to remove the president alization of Belarus and the praising of ated or were weakened over time, which with a two-third majority of all members the years under the Soviet rule, both a paved the way for a non-democratic re- of parliament, and in both chambers. part of Lukashenka’s political project. The gime. Contributing to the collapse was There were also areas unrelated to the proposals concerning regional leaders and also the political message Lukashenka pre- division of power that were affected by financing also contributed to sented to the population and the socio- the referendum, which Lukashenka held Lukashenka’s concentration of power. economic crisis in the state, which all in

79 all led to the popular support of the total joy a widespread support in the parlia- Lukashenka. Thereby Lukashenka pushed delegation of power to Lukashenka. ment. Lukashenka created his platform by away his old allies and succeeded in creat- using his position as chairman of the ing a loyal circle of persons around him. The social base parliamentary committee investigating Lukashenka also uses rhetorical means corruption in the government and in the to maintain his support in the popula- Lukashenka does not have a long record parliament. Using that position he suc- tion. He pointed out several times that inside the communist nomenklatura. He ceeded in creating an image of himself as he was the only Member of Parliament was born in a small village in the Vitebsk a fair and honest person. The position voting against the dissolution of the So- Oblast in the north eastern part of also gave Lukashenka a huge advantage viet Union and tries to blame the old elite Belarus, and he created his political base because the committee could be used to for the problems of today. in the Mogilev Oblast in the eastern part discredit his political opponents by ac- It cannot be ruled out that Lukashenka of the country. Lukashenka’s past career cusing them of being involved in cor- in fact enjoys a widespread popular sup- is not the “traditional” way up through ruption. Such accusations contributed to port despite the fact that most statistics the ranks in the Communist Party. In- turning the population against these can- from Belarus is probably fake. Examin- stead he entered the political stage at a didates. ing the numbers from the 1994 presiden- rather late point in his life, when he was During Lukashenka’s candidacy the tial election one will find a massive sup- elected to the Supreme Soviet in 1990. inner circle around him were democrati- port to Lukashenka and, despite a nega- Until that time he headed a collective farm. cally minded persons, who wished to gain tive and critical evaluation of the 2001 Lukashenka has been able to use the political power in the aftermath of the presidential election from the OSCE, it same approach as other rulers through- political upheaval in the Soviet Union. seems to remain unchanged. In the first out history by creating a picture of his They wished to use Lukashenka’s charisma presidential election Lukashenka received childhood as the poor and humble. His to reach that end. But the alliance did 44,8% of the votes cast in the first round, career and promotion inside the party not last, and after Lukashenka took office while he received 80,1% of the votes cast happened without the help of others and he installed loyal persons in key positions. in the second round, securing a landslide solely by own means. In the presidential These persons were either friends from victory. OSCE’s comments on the elec- election in 1994 he was not the Commu- his native area or friends from his child- tion were that they only observed minor nist Party’s candidate and he did not en- hood - all loyal and faithful towards errors and difficulties. The second presi-

80 dential election showed stable support for lic from e.g. Russia. The system collapsed clear fall in their economic position and Lukashenka. The opposition did succeed with the Soviet Union, and Belarus had prosperity. Inflation peaked in 1994, and in nominating a single candidate, but to make radical reordering of its priori- the unemployment rate was increasing Lukashenka still won the election by se- ties due to its heavy dependence on im- until 1996, according to numbers from curing 75,7% of the votes cast in the first ports of raw materials and energy. the World Bank7 . Despite the fact that round. His main opponent only managed All economies in transition experienced the statistical numbers look much better to secure 15,7% of the votes cast. fluctuations and downward trends. The today, there are some who claim that the Lukashenka’s popularity has also been Belarusian politicians chose gradualism as numbers are hiding the truth about the described in a statistical analysis by the means to handle the pressure from real economic situation in Belarus. It is Korosteleva6 , where the findings showed the market. However, the reforms carried important for the regime to present a a relatively stable support to him. out were half-hearted and ineffective. A picture of healthy and growing economy negative consequence of these reforms was to keep the support of the population. The distorted capitalism the old nomenklatura attempt to seize as- Such numbers increase the likelihood of sets in order to obtain personal gains the survival of the regime despite other During the existence of the Soviet during the transition. This behaviour political challenges. An illusion of eco- Union, Belarus was one of the wealthiest only worsened the economic situation in nomic stability is created by presenting republics apart from the three Baltic states. Belarus. healthy numbers to the population. De- Massive industrialization was the main As a result, the population faced ris- spite the fact that the Belarusian economy reason of that as described earlier. But ing inflation, devaluation of the savings is experiencing vast problems, a total col- the collapse of the Soviet Union and the and a rising unemployment rate. The pe- lapse has probably been avoided due to independence of Belarus meant a formi- riods between 1991 and 1994 and 1994 to cheap oil and loans provided by Russia. dable economic challenge. In the Soviet 2002 are very interesting to observe with Haggard & Kaufman8 have argued that Union, the system of planned economy regard to total Gross National Product economic crisis and challenges not only was centred on an inter-republican “divi- and Gross National Product per Capita facilitate political change in a democratic sion of labour”. Belarus’ industry deliv- adjusted to Purchasing Power Parity. It is direction but also the breakdown of de- ered the finished products while raw ma- possible to identify that the population mocracy. It has also been argued that the terials and energy poured into the repub- in 1990-1991 to 1994-1995 experienced a economic heritage from the former non-

81 democratic regime to a large extent deter- ing the presidency to enrich himself, under Putin have showed how these oli- mined the possible actions that successor which points in the direction of separa- garchs can pose a threat to the centre of states had to take. Both claims seem to tion between his personal finances and power - the presidency and the state ad- carry some weight in the case of Belarus. the states finances even though public ministration. The frightening example for The politicians governing the state dur- funds probably are used to pay off sup- Lukashenka is Putin’s showdown with two ing the transition had to face the prob- porters and allies. oligarchs, Berezovsky and Gusinskij, both lems of transition, and the consequences It is also characteristic for the forced into exile abroad. of hard political choices pushed the Belarusian economy that Lukashenka tries population into Lukashenka’s arms. to gain full control of all economic ac- Concluding Remarks In a normal democracy and parliamen- tivities. It has been exemplified through tarism, the parliament passes the state the fact that all economic transactions in The main focus of this article has been budget, but since Lukashenka’s take-over, Belarus are subject to the president’s ap- on the political changes that took place large parts of the public finances have been proval. This massive control can be seen after Belarus gained her independence. The moved beyond legislative scrutiny and re- as an attempt to secure revenues to the main emphasis has been on the period vision. In 1996 Lukashenka managed to unofficial budget as well as an attempt to after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. win the referendum concerning the es- shield the regime against the establishment It has been necessary to include historical tablishment of a separate budget without of alternative centres of power. elements to illustrate significant influence parliamentary control. Thus Belarus has A threat that Lukashenka is trying to these elements have had on the develop- two budgets, the official one, adopted by avoid could be one similar to what has ments in Belarus. the parliament, and the unofficial one, been happening in the Russian Federa- In the first part of the article some controlled solely by the president. It has tion, where economically strong oligarchs critical elements were presented in the been claimed that the latter has been and were positioning themselves under the Belarusian case that advanced a radically is being financed through the sales of Yeltsin administration. They were allied different political development compared military equipment and that one of its with the president and had considerable with states in a similar situation follow- purposes is to pay subjects for their loy- economic as well as political resources, ing the fall of the Berlin Wall. alty and support. There is however no which they were able to expand during Very weak national consciousness can evidence showing that Lukashenka is us- Yeltsin’s presidency. The developments be identified as the most important fac-

82 tor contributing to the particular un- primarily used the constitution as a versal and pre-determined development in democratic development in Belarus. The weapon in his clashes with the parliament the former communist states towards de- consequence of this weakness is an unsuc- and the Constitutional Court. Persistent mocracy - a perception further justified cessful nation and state building, which constitutional changes introduced by by the developments in e.g. Slovakia, is a very critical factor. Such a situation Lukashenka stand as a further evidence to Serbia and Montenegro and Croatia. But stands in stark contrast with the situation such a claim. the recent developments in the Russian Fed- in other states in Central and Eastern Lukashenka’s entry into the political eration and Ukraine can contribute to chal- Europe. The absence of national feelings scene and his behaviour has underlined lenging this perception. It is worth con- meant the absence of a rallying point for the fact that an institutional focus alone sidering if a relapse in the democratizing the democratic movement, which weak- is an inadequate analytical approach. The states is a real danger that must be addressed ened the possibility for a democratic de- president’s personality and his charismatic politically and, if this is the case, which velopment in Belarus significantly. appeal to the population have also been factors are behind this development. Another factor which contributed to decisive factors in securing a widespread the developments was the functioning of support to Lukashenka in the population. the institutions. The parliament’s adop- Another important factor is the political 1 Fukuyama, Francis (1992), “The End of His- tory and the Last Man”, London: Hamish tion of the constitution and the creation economy. The transition from plan to Hamilton. of a strong presidency created the insti- market economy caused major economic 2 Huntington, Samuel P. (1991), “The Clash of tutional framework for Lukashenka’s take- problems and, in conjunction with Civilizations and the Remaking of World Or- over. It supports the claim about the con- Lukashenka’s economic and fiscal policy, der”, Norman: Oklahoma University Press. 3 stitution being a decisive factor when the produced a nostalgic feeling towards the Kuzio, Taras & Marc Nordberg (1999), “Na- tion and State Building, Historical Legacies and result of political struggle has to be evalu- situation under the Soviet rule. These feel- National Identities in Belarus and Ukraine: A ated. It is however important to under- ings have further bolstered Lukashenka’s Comparative Analysis”, Canadian Review of Stud- line that the constitution alone does not powers and advanced a non-democratic ies in Nationalism, Volume 26, No. 1-2, pp. 69-90. constitute the complete constitutional development. 4 Gille-Belova, Olga (2002), “The Nature of Rela- tions between Political Leaders and their Sup- framework. The electoral law is another Undoubtedly Belarus is a unique case porters - The Case of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine”, important element. But in the Belarusian in the European context. It questions the Paper for the International Conference “Russia, case it can be observed that Lukashenka widespread perception of an almost uni- Ukraine and Belarus: Political Leadership, Inter-

83 national Society and Public Order”, July 1st 2002, CERI, Paris, France. 5 Johannsen, Lars (2000), “The Constitutions and Democracy: The Choice and Consequences of the Constitution in Post-Communist Coun- tries”, PhD Dissertation, Aarhus: Forlaget Politica. 6 Korosteleva, Elena A. (2002), “What Lies Be- hind the Public Support of Leading Politicians in Belarus? Elaborations from Opinion Polls and Focus Groups”, Paper for the International Con- ference “Russia, Ukraine and Belarus: Political Leadership, International Society and Public Order”, July 1st 2002, CERI, Paris, France. 7 World Development Indicators 2002. CD- ROM Query Database, World Bank Group / International Bank for Reconstruction and De- velopment. The conclusions based on these num- bers should be read with some reservations. 8 Haggard, Stephen & Robert R. Kaufman (1997), “The Political Economy of Democratic Transi- tions”, Comparative Politics, Volume 29, No. 3, April, pp. 263-283.

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