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Sununu Narrows Gap with Shaheen in NH Senate Race 10/29/2008

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Sununu Narrows Gap with Shaheen in NH Senate Race 10/29/2008 WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. (603) 862-2226 October 29, 2008 UNH Survey Center - www.unh.edu/survey-center SUNUNU NARROWS GAP WITH SHAHEEN IN U.S. SENATE RACE Durham, NH – Republican John Sununu has narrowed the gap against Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in the race for the United States Senate, while the race in the First Congressional District has closed to a near dead heat as incumbent Democrat Carol Shea-Porter faces Republican Jeb Bradley in a rematch of their 2006 contest. These findings are based on the 2008 WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. This survey is sponsored by WMUR-TV Manchester and the University of New Hampshire.* Six hundred sixty-one (661) likely New Hampshire voters were interviewed between October 26 and October 28, 2008. The potential sampling error for the statewide survey is +/-3.8%. Three-hundred forty (340) likely 1 st District voters were surveyed (margin of sampling error of +/- 5.3%) and 321 likely 2 nd District voters were interviewed (margin of sampling error +/-5.5%). For more information about the WMUR / UNH Election Tracking Poll, go to www.unh.edu/survey- center/news/pdf/e2008_track08meth.pdf . US Senate In the race for the U.S. Senate, incumbent Republican John Sununu continues to trail his 2002 challenger Jeanne Shaheen, but has cut the margin from 14 to 8 percentage points. Currently, 48% of likely New Hampshire voters say they will vote for Shaheen, 40% will vote for Sununu, 1% prefer some other candidate, and 11% are undecided. NH Senate Race – Sununu vs. Shaheen 70% 60% 54% 54% 54% 52% 49% 49% 50% 46% 48% 48% 50% 40% 44% 40% 42% 40% 30% 38% 38% 37% 36% 38% 36% 13% 13% 20% 10% 12% 11% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 10% 0% 7 8 1 .2 '07 -29 b. '08 r. '08 9-31 July '07 July '08 28-30 Nov. -Nov Sep. Fe Ap Sep. '08 ct. 18-22 t. 24-26 t. 25-2 t. 26-2 t. 27 t. t. 2 O Oc Oc Oc Oc Oc Oc ct. 31 t. 30 - O Oc Shaheen Sununu Undecided Sununu does well among upper income voters, those that attend religious services on a weekly basis, North Country and Manchester-area voters, and voters in the First Congressional District. Shaheen does well among women, lower and middle income voters, voters with a higher education, and voters in the Second Congressional District. * We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll , sponsored by WMUR-TV and the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. 1 NH First District The race in New Hampshire’s First Congressional District has narrowed to a near dead heat, as incumbent Democrat Carol Shea-Porter faces former incumbent Republican Jeb Bradley in a rematch of their 2006 contest. In the latest WMUR / UNH Tracking Poll, 44% of likely 1 st District voters say they will vote for Shea-Porter, 42% favor Bradley, 1% prefer some other candidate, and 12% remain undecided. st 70% 1 C.D. Race – Shea -Porter vs. Bradley 60% 45% 48% 50% 50% 45% 46% 44% 44% 40% 42% 42% 39% 40% 39% 40% 30% 37% 20% 14% 14% 13% 12% 11% 11% 12% 10% 0% April July '08 Sep. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. 30 Oct. '08 '08 18-22 24-26 25-27 26-28 27-29 28-30 29-31 - Nov. 31- 1 Nov.2 Shea-Porter Bradley Undecided NH Second District In the 2 nd District, Democratic incumbent Paul Hodes widened an already solid lead over Republican newcomer Jennifer Horn -- 55% of likely voters in the 2 nd District say they will vote for Hodes, only 21% say they will vote for Horn, 1% prefer some other candidate, and 24% remain undecided. 2nd C.D. Race – Hodes vs. Horn 70% 60% 55% 52% 51% 51% 48% 50% 43% 38% 40% 26% 26% 27% 30% 25% 23% 25% 24% 32% 33% 20% 25% 22% 24% 21% 21% 10% 0% April '08 July '08 Sep. '08 Oct. 18- Oct. 24- Oct. 25- Oct. 26- Oct. 27- Oct. 28- Oct. 29- Oct. 30 Oct. 31- 22 26 27 28 29 30 31 - Nov. 1 Nov.2 Hodes Horn Undecided 2 President The race for President in New Hampshire remains relatively unchanged, as Democrat Barack Obama continues to hold a strong lead over Republican John McCain. More than half of likely voters, 58%, say they plan to vote for Obama, 34% favor McCain, 2% prefer some other candidate, and 7% are undecided. US President in NH – McCain vs. Obama 70% 58% 58% 55% 60% 54% 46% 50% 43% 45% 40% 49% 47% 43% 30% 39% 39% 33% 34% 20% 6% 8% 7% 6% 6% 7% 10% 5% 0% 08 2 il '08 ' -26 6-28 July '08 25-27 Nov. 1 Apr Sept. t. 18-2 t. 24 t. t. 2 ct. 28-30 t. 29-31 - Oc Oc Oc Oc Oct. 27-29 O Oc Oct. 31-Nov.2 Oct. 30 Obama McCain Undecided Obama continues to widen his lead among independent voters in New Hampshire – 59% of political independents say they favor Obama, 23% favor McCain, 2% prefer some other candidate, and 16% are undecided. US President Preference in NH Among Independent Voters 70% 59% 60% 52% 54% 54% 61% 50% 42% 40% 35% 27% 41% 30% 31% 32% 20% 26% 26% 23% 10% 0% Apr. July Sep. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. '08 '08 08 18-22 24-26 25-27 26-28 27-29 28-30 29-31 30 - 31- Nov. 1 Nov.2 Obama McCain The most important issue in the presidential campaign to New Hampshire voters continues to be jobs and the economy (45%), followed by the war in Iraq (7%), the recent stock market crash (7%), health care (7%) and the campaign against terrorism (6%). Economic concerns have topped the list of important issues to New Hampshire voters since mid-summer. 3 Most Important Issue in Presidential Campaign 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 -22 -31 t. 18 t. 24-26 t. 26-28 t. 27-29 t. 28-3 t. 29 Nov. 1 -Nov.2 c 0 - Oc Oc Oct. 25-27 O Oc Oc Oc t. 31 Oc Oct. 3 Jobs, Economy Iraq Terror Health Care Stock Market NH Governor Incumbent John Lynch maintained a wide lead over Republican Joe Kenney in the race for New Hampshire Governor. Lynch currently leads Kenney by a 71% to 15% margin with 1% favoring some other candidate, and 13% undecided. The dynamics of this race closely resemble Lynch’s 2006 victory over Jim Coburn. NH Governor – Lynch vs. Kenney – Likely Voters 100% 90% 80% 71% 71% 68% 67% 66% 67% 68% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 17% 16% 17% 17% 18% 15% 15% 20% 10% 14% 16% 15% 15% 14% 13% 13% 0% April '08 July '08 Sep. '08 Oct. 18- Oct. 24- Oct. 25- Oct. 26- Oct. 27- Oct. 28- Oct. 29- Oct. 30 Oct. 31- 22 26 27 28 29 30 31 - Nov. 1 Nov.2 Lynch Kenney Undecided 4 The most important issue in the governor’s race are jobs and the economy (28%), taxes (20%), the state budget (13%), education funding (15%) and health care (8%). Most Important Issue in NH Governor’s Campaign 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 27 1 1 8-30 27-29 -Nov.2 t. 24-26 t. 25- t. 26-28 t. t. 2 t. 29-3 Nov. 1 Oc Oc Oc Oc Oc Oc t. 30 - Oct. 3 Oc Jobs, Economy Taxes State Budget Educ. Funding Health Care NH Senate Democrats continue to lead in generic ballots for the New Hampshire Senate -- 45% of likely voters say they plan to vote for the Democrat in their State Senate district, 33% plan to vote for the Republican, and 21% are undecided. Vote for NH State Senate 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% July '08 Sep. '08 Oct. 18- Oct. 24- Oct. 25- Oct. 26- Oct. 27- Oct. 28- Oct. 29- Oct. 30 - Oct. 31- 22 26 27 28 29 30 31 Nov. 1 Nov.2 Republican Democrat Undecided 5 NH House Democrats also lead in generic ballots for the New Hampshire House -- 43% of likely voters say they plan to vote for the Democrat in their State House district, 30% plan to vote for the Republican, and 26% are undecided. Vote for NH House of Representatives 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% July '08 Sep. '08 Oct. 18- Oct. 24- Oct. 25- Oct. 26- Oct. 27- Oct. 28- Oct. 29- Oct. 30 - Oct. 31- 22 26 27 28 29 30 31 Nov. 1 Nov.2 Republican Democrat Undecided 6 PRES1: "Thinking about the presidential election in November, will you vote for Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin ... Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden ... someone else ... or haven't you decided yet?" ROTATE CANDIDATES INCLUDING LEANERS WHO HAVE BEEN PROBED * McCain Obama Other Undecided (N=) October 24-26 39% 55% 2% 5% 692 October 25-27 33% 58% 2% 6% 645 October 26-28 34% 58% 2% 7% 656 Registered Democrat 9% 90% 0% 1% 194 Registered Undeclared 27% 61% 3% 10% 277 Registered Republican 71% 18% 3% 8% 184 Democrat 5% 92% 1% 2% 292 Independent 23% 59% 2% 16% 112 Republican 74% 16% 3% 8% 231 Core Republican 86% 4% 2% 7% 192 Swing Voter 28% 54% 3% 15% 167 Core Democrat 3% 94% 1% 2% 297 Male 37% 52% 3% 8% 329 Female 30% 63% 1% 6% 327 High school or less 36% 55% 3% 5% 106 Some college 38% 55% 0% 7% 144 College graduate 39% 52% 1% 7% 229 Post-graduate 21% 70% 3% 6% 167 18 to 34 24% 64% 2% 10% 56 35 to 49 40% 52% 2% 6% 194 50 to 64 31% 62% 2% 6% 265 65 and over 35% 53% 3% 8% 120 Less than $30K 24% 67% 4% 6% 37 $30K to $60K 33% 61% 3% 3% 116 $60K to $75K 28% 69% 1% 2% 53 $75K to $100K 37% 57% 5% 2% 85 $100K or more 38% 54% 1% 7% 163 Attend services 1 or more/week 47% 41% 2% 9% 182 1-2 times a month 27% 70% 0% 4% 77 Less often 29% 63% 3% 5% 222 Never 29% 63% 2% 6% 163 10 yrs or less in NH 36% 53% 2% 10% 110 11 to 20 years 35% 57% 4% 4% 111 More than 20 years 33% 59% 2% 7% 427 North Country 39% 56% 2% 3% 68 Central / Lakes 36% 59% 2% 3% 107 Connecticut Valley 16% 79% 1% 4% 89 Mass Border 35% 55% 1% 9% 180 Seacoast 28% 61% 5% 6% 107 Manchester Area 45% 42% 2% 11% 105 First Cong.
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