WMUR / UNH Tracking Poll

By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. (603) 862-2226 October 29, 2008 UNH Survey Center - www.unh.edu/survey-center

SUNUNU NARROWS GAP WITH SHAHEEN IN U.S. SENATE RACE

Durham, NH – Republican John Sununu has narrowed the gap against Democrat in the race for the Senate, while the race in the First Congressional District has closed to a near dead heat as incumbent Democrat Carol Shea-Porter faces Republican Jeb Bradley in a rematch of their 2006 contest.

These findings are based on the 2008 WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. This survey is sponsored by WMUR-TV Manchester and the University of New Hampshire.* Six hundred sixty-one (661) likely New Hampshire voters were interviewed between October 26 and October 28, 2008. The potential sampling error for the statewide survey is +/-3.8%. Three-hundred forty (340) likely 1 st District voters were surveyed (margin of sampling error of +/- 5.3%) and 321 likely 2 nd District voters were interviewed (margin of sampling error +/-5.5%). For more information about the WMUR / UNH Election Tracking Poll, go to www.unh.edu/survey- center/news/pdf/e2008_track08meth.pdf .

US Senate In the race for the U.S. Senate, incumbent Republican John Sununu continues to trail his 2002 challenger Jeanne Shaheen, but has cut the margin from 14 to 8 percentage points. Currently, 48% of likely New Hampshire voters say they will vote for Shaheen, 40% will vote for Sununu, 1% prefer some other candidate, and 11% are undecided.

NH Senate Race – Sununu vs. Shaheen 70% 60% 54% 54% 54% 52% 49% 49% 50% 46% 48% 48% 50% 40% 44% 40% 42% 40% 30% 38% 38% 37% 36% 38% 36% 13% 13% 20% 10% 12% 11% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 10% 0%

7 8 1 .2 '07 -29 b. '08 r. '08 9-31 July '07 July '08 28-30 Nov. -Nov Sep. Fe Ap Sep. '08 ct. 18-22 t. 24-26 t. 25-2 t. 26-2 t. 27 t. t. 2 O Oc Oc Oc Oc Oc Oc ct. 31 t. 30 - O Oc

Shaheen Sununu Undecided

Sununu does well among upper income voters, those that attend religious services on a weekly basis, North Country and Manchester-area voters, and voters in the First Congressional District. Shaheen does well among women, lower and middle income voters, voters with a higher education, and voters in the Second Congressional District.

* We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll , sponsored by WMUR-TV and the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. 1 NH First District The race in New Hampshire’s First Congressional District has narrowed to a near dead heat, as incumbent Democrat Carol Shea-Porter faces former incumbent Republican Jeb Bradley in a rematch of their 2006 contest. In the latest WMUR / UNH Tracking Poll, 44% of likely 1 st District voters say they will vote for Shea-Porter, 42% favor Bradley, 1% prefer some other candidate, and 12% remain undecided.

st 70% 1 C.D. Race – Shea -Porter vs. Bradley

60% 45% 48% 50% 50% 45% 46% 44% 44%

40% 42% 42% 39% 40% 39% 40% 30% 37%

20% 14% 14% 13% 12% 11% 11% 12% 10%

0% April July '08 Sep. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. 30 Oct. '08 '08 18-22 24-26 25-27 26-28 27-29 28-30 29-31 - Nov. 31- 1 Nov.2

Shea-Porter Bradley Undecided

NH Second District In the 2 nd District, Democratic incumbent Paul Hodes widened an already solid lead over Republican newcomer Jennifer Horn -- 55% of likely voters in the 2 nd District say they will vote for Hodes, only 21% say they will vote for Horn, 1% prefer some other candidate, and 24% remain undecided.

2nd C.D. Race – Hodes vs. Horn 70%

60% 55% 52% 51% 51% 48% 50% 43% 38% 40% 26% 26% 27% 30% 25% 23% 25% 24% 32% 33% 20% 25% 22% 24% 21% 21% 10%

0% April '08 July '08 Sep. '08 Oct. 18- Oct. 24- Oct. 25- Oct. 26- Oct. 27- Oct. 28- Oct. 29- Oct. 30 Oct. 31- 22 26 27 28 29 30 31 - Nov. 1 Nov.2

Hodes Horn Undecided

2 President The race for President in New Hampshire remains relatively unchanged, as Democrat Barack Obama continues to hold a strong lead over Republican John McCain. More than half of likely voters, 58%, say they plan to vote for Obama, 34% favor McCain, 2% prefer some other candidate, and 7% are undecided.

US President in NH – McCain vs. Obama 70% 58% 58% 55% 60% 54% 46% 50% 43% 45% 40% 49% 47% 43% 30% 39% 39% 33% 34% 20% 6% 8% 7% 6% 6% 7% 10% 5% 0%

08 2 il '08 ' -26 6-28 July '08 25-27 Nov. 1 Apr Sept. t. 18-2 t. 24 t. t. 2 ct. 28-30 t. 29-31 - Oc Oc Oc Oc Oct. 27-29 O Oc Oct. 31-Nov.2 Oct. 30

Obama McCain Undecided

Obama continues to widen his lead among independent voters in New Hampshire – 59% of political independents say they favor Obama, 23% favor McCain, 2% prefer some other candidate, and 16% are undecided.

US President Preference in NH Among Independent Voters 70% 59% 60% 52% 54% 54% 61% 50% 42% 40% 35% 27% 41% 30% 31% 32% 20% 26% 26% 23% 10% 0% Apr. July Sep. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. '08 '08 08 18-22 24-26 25-27 26-28 27-29 28-30 29-31 30 - 31- Nov. 1 Nov.2

Obama McCain

The most important issue in the presidential campaign to New Hampshire voters continues to be jobs and the economy (45%), followed by the war in Iraq (7%), the recent stock market crash (7%), health care (7%) and the campaign against terrorism (6%). Economic concerns have topped the list of important issues to New Hampshire voters since mid-summer.

3 Most Important Issue in Presidential Campaign 60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

0 -22 -31 t. 18 t. 24-26 t. 26-28 t. 27-29 t. 28-3 t. 29 Nov. 1 -Nov.2 c 0 - Oc Oc Oct. 25-27 O Oc Oc Oc t. 31 Oc Oct. 3

Jobs, Economy Iraq Terror Health Care Stock Market

NH Governor Incumbent John Lynch maintained a wide lead over Republican Joe Kenney in the race for New Hampshire Governor. Lynch currently leads Kenney by a 71% to 15% margin with 1% favoring some other candidate, and 13% undecided. The dynamics of this race closely resemble Lynch’s 2006 victory over Jim Coburn.

NH Governor – Lynch vs. Kenney – Likely Voters 100% 90% 80% 71% 71% 68% 67% 66% 67% 68% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 17% 16% 17% 17% 18% 15% 15% 20% 10% 14% 16% 15% 15% 14% 13% 13% 0% April '08 July '08 Sep. '08 Oct. 18- Oct. 24- Oct. 25- Oct. 26- Oct. 27- Oct. 28- Oct. 29- Oct. 30 Oct. 31- 22 26 27 28 29 30 31 - Nov. 1 Nov.2

Lynch Kenney Undecided

4 The most important issue in the governor’s race are jobs and the economy (28%), taxes (20%), the state budget (13%), education funding (15%) and health care (8%).

Most Important Issue in NH Governor’s Campaign 40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

27 1 1 8-30 27-29 -Nov.2 t. 24-26 t. 25- t. 26-28 t. t. 2 t. 29-3 Nov. 1 Oc Oc Oc Oc Oc Oc t. 30 - Oct. 3 Oc

Jobs, Economy Taxes State Budget Educ. Funding Health Care

NH Senate Democrats continue to lead in generic ballots for the -- 45% of likely voters say they plan to vote for the Democrat in their State Senate district, 33% plan to vote for the Republican, and 21% are undecided.

Vote for NH State Senate 60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% July '08 Sep. '08 Oct. 18- Oct. 24- Oct. 25- Oct. 26- Oct. 27- Oct. 28- Oct. 29- Oct. 30 - Oct. 31- 22 26 27 28 29 30 31 Nov. 1 Nov.2

Republican Democrat Undecided

5 NH House Democrats also lead in generic ballots for the New Hampshire House -- 43% of likely voters say they plan to vote for the Democrat in their State House district, 30% plan to vote for the Republican, and 26% are undecided.

Vote for NH House of Representatives 60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% July '08 Sep. '08 Oct. 18- Oct. 24- Oct. 25- Oct. 26- Oct. 27- Oct. 28- Oct. 29- Oct. 30 - Oct. 31- 22 26 27 28 29 30 31 Nov. 1 Nov.2

Republican Democrat Undecided

6

PRES1: "Thinking about the presidential election in November, will you vote for Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin ... Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden ... someone else ... or haven't you decided yet?" ROTATE CANDIDATES INCLUDING LEANERS WHO HAVE BEEN PROBED *

McCain Obama Other Undecided (N=) October 24-26 39% 55% 2% 5% 692 October 25-27 33% 58% 2% 6% 645 October 26-28 34% 58% 2% 7% 656

Registered Democrat 9% 90% 0% 1% 194 Registered Undeclared 27% 61% 3% 10% 277 Registered Republican 71% 18% 3% 8% 184

Democrat 5% 92% 1% 2% 292 Independent 23% 59% 2% 16% 112 Republican 74% 16% 3% 8% 231

Core Republican 86% 4% 2% 7% 192 Swing Voter 28% 54% 3% 15% 167 Core Democrat 3% 94% 1% 2% 297

Male 37% 52% 3% 8% 329 Female 30% 63% 1% 6% 327

High school or less 36% 55% 3% 5% 106 Some college 38% 55% 0% 7% 144 College graduate 39% 52% 1% 7% 229 Post-graduate 21% 70% 3% 6% 167

18 to 34 24% 64% 2% 10% 56 35 to 49 40% 52% 2% 6% 194 50 to 64 31% 62% 2% 6% 265 65 and over 35% 53% 3% 8% 120

Less than $30K 24% 67% 4% 6% 37 $30K to $60K 33% 61% 3% 3% 116 $60K to $75K 28% 69% 1% 2% 53 $75K to $100K 37% 57% 5% 2% 85 $100K or more 38% 54% 1% 7% 163

Attend services 1 or more/week 47% 41% 2% 9% 182 1-2 times a month 27% 70% 0% 4% 77 Less often 29% 63% 3% 5% 222 Never 29% 63% 2% 6% 163

10 yrs or less in NH 36% 53% 2% 10% 110 11 to 20 years 35% 57% 4% 4% 111 More than 20 years 33% 59% 2% 7% 427

North Country 39% 56% 2% 3% 68 Central / Lakes 36% 59% 2% 3% 107 Connecticut Valley 16% 79% 1% 4% 89 Mass Border 35% 55% 1% 9% 180 Seacoast 28% 61% 5% 6% 107 Manchester Area 45% 42% 2% 11% 105

First Cong. Dist 40% 49% 3% 8% 337 Second Cong. Dist 27% 67% 1% 5% 319

* Due to rounding, percentages may add up to more or less than 100%. 7 MIPUS "Of the following list, which one of these will be the single most important issue in your vote for president this year ... the U.S. campaign against terrorism ... the war in Iraq ... the economy and jobs ... education ... health care ... the stock market and financial situation ... Social Security ... gas and oil prices ... or something else?" ROTATE LIST

Jobs, War on Health Stock Economy Iraq Terror Care Market Other DK (N=) October 24-26 48% 10% 7% 6% 6% 22% 2% 696 October 25-27 45% 10% 8% 7% 7% 21% 3% 646 October 26-28 45% 7% 6% 7% 7% 26% 3% 657

Registered Democrat 46% 11% 2% 9% 7% 23% 2% 194 Registered Undeclared 48% 7% 5% 8% 7% 22% 4% 277 Registered Republican 38% 3% 12% 2% 8% 34% 2% 184

Democrat 48% 10% 2% 10% 4% 22% 3% 292 Independent 47% 10% 2% 7% 8% 23% 3% 111 Republican 40% 2% 12% 3% 10% 31% 2% 232

Core Republican 35% 3% 15% 2% 8% 35% 2% 191 Swing Voter 49% 5% 3% 7% 12% 20% 5% 169 Core Democrat 49% 11% 2% 10% 4% 22% 3% 297

Male 43% 6% 7% 4% 10% 29% 2% 328 Female 47% 8% 5% 10% 5% 22% 4% 329

High school or less 46% 6% 5% 4% 8% 31% 0% 107 Some college 47% 7% 7% 5% 6% 26% 3% 143 College graduate 47% 7% 5% 10% 9% 18% 4% 230 Post-graduate 40% 8% 6% 7% 5% 32% 3% 169

18 to 34 59% 6% 2% 12% 0% 16% 5% 56 35 to 49 45% 7% 7% 4% 8% 26% 4% 196 50 to 64 44% 6% 6% 8% 8% 26% 2% 265 65 and over 40% 8% 7% 8% 6% 30% 1% 120

Less than $30K 34% 9% 0% 10% 0% 42% 5% 36 $30K to $60K 46% 6% 5% 9% 9% 23% 2% 115 $60K to $75K 44% 13% 6% 11% 5% 18% 3% 53 $75K to $100K 48% 9% 4% 7% 5% 26% 0% 86 $100K or more 51% 5% 7% 2% 8% 23% 2% 165

Attend services 1 or more/week 33% 6% 8% 5% 8% 38% 2% 184 1-2 times a month 57% 9% 11% 7% 3% 11% 3% 77 Less often 49% 8% 4% 7% 9% 19% 4% 222 Never 45% 6% 4% 10% 5% 28% 3% 162

10 yrs or less in NH 44% 7% 8% 6% 9% 27% 0% 110 11 to 20 years 45% 6% 9% 6% 3% 27% 4% 111 More than 20 years 45% 7% 5% 7% 8% 25% 3% 428

North Country 42% 5% 5% 8% 7% 29% 4% 68 Central / Lakes 42% 7% 8% 5% 4% 31% 2% 107 Connecticut Valley 50% 8% 4% 8% 8% 21% 2% 90 Mass Border 51% 6% 5% 6% 7% 22% 4% 180 Seacoast 45% 10% 2% 10% 6% 25% 2% 106 Manchester Area 33% 7% 11% 6% 12% 29% 3% 105

First Cong. Dist 40% 7% 7% 7% 9% 26% 3% 336 Second Cong. Dist 50% 7% 4% 6% 5% 25% 3% 321

8 SEN1: "Lets turn to the November election for U.S. Senate from New Hampshire ... will you vote for John Sununu the Republican ... Jeanne Shaheen the Democrat ... someone else ... or haven't you decided yet?" IF UNDECIDED: "Would you say you are leaning toward Republican John Sununu or Democrat Jeanne Shaheen?"

Sununu Shaheen Other Undecided (N=) October 24-26 38% 49% 2% 12% 687 October 25-27 36% 50% 2% 13% 641 October 26-28 40% 48% 1% 11% 652

Registered Democrat 14% 81% 0% 6% 192 Registered Undeclared 32% 49% 3% 16% 274 Registered Republican 78% 12% 0% 9% 184

Democrat 8% 83% 1% 8% 291 Independent 35% 38% 3% 23% 111 Republican 80% 8% 1% 10% 230

Core Republican 95% 1% 1% 4% 191 Swing Voter 38% 30% 4% 28% 168 Core Democrat 5% 88% 0% 6% 294

Male 45% 43% 1% 11% 326 Female 34% 53% 2% 12% 326

High school or less 37% 43% 4% 16% 106 Some college 44% 44% 3% 9% 143 College graduate 41% 46% 0% 13% 227 Post-graduate 36% 57% 0% 7% 169

18 to 34 33% 52% 6% 9% 56 35 to 49 46% 40% 2% 12% 194 50 to 64 38% 51% 0% 11% 263 65 and over 39% 50% 1% 11% 120

Less than $30K 20% 64% 4% 12% 36 $30K to $60K 38% 50% 3% 10% 116 $60K to $75K 27% 63% 1% 9% 53 $75K to $100K 41% 51% 3% 5% 85 $100K or more 51% 42% 1% 5% 162

Attend services 1 or more/week 47% 39% 1% 12% 181 1-2 times a month 32% 55% 1% 12% 77 Less often 39% 52% 2% 8% 221 Never 37% 48% 1% 14% 162

10 yrs or less in NH 37% 44% 1% 18% 107 11 to 20 years 43% 44% 2% 12% 111 More than 20 years 40% 49% 2% 10% 426

North Country 51% 42% 2% 6% 68 Central / Lakes 33% 58% 0% 9% 106 Connecticut Valley 27% 62% 1% 11% 88 Mass Border 39% 43% 2% 16% 180 Seacoast 37% 50% 3% 10% 106 Manchester Area 55% 34% 1% 10% 105

First Cong. Dist 46% 41% 2% 11% 334 Second Cong. Dist 33% 55% 1% 11% 318

9 GOV1: "And turning to the November election for New Hampshire Governor, will you vote for Joe Kenney, the Republican ... John Lynch, the Democrat ... someone else ... or haven't you decided yet?" IF UNDECIDED: "Would you say you are leaning toward Republican Joe Kenney or Democrat John Lynch?"

Kenney Lynch Other Undecided (N=) October 24-26 18% 68% 1% 14% 688 October 25-27 15% 71% 1% 13% 641 October 26-28 15% 71% 1% 13% 652

Registered Democrat 3% 89% 1% 7% 193 Registered Undeclared 7% 74% 1% 18% 276 Registered Republican 41% 46% 1% 12% 183

Democrat 2% 89% 1% 8% 293 Independent 5% 71% 1% 23% 112 Republican 37% 48% 1% 15% 230

Core Republican 48% 36% 1% 16% 188 Swing Voter 4% 72% 0% 23% 167 Core Democrat 1% 92% 1% 6% 297

Male 17% 70% 1% 12% 325 Female 14% 71% 1% 15% 327

High school or less 11% 72% 3% 14% 103 Some college 19% 62% 1% 17% 144 College graduate 18% 67% 0% 15% 230 Post-graduate 11% 82% 0% 7% 168

18 to 34 11% 61% 0% 28% 56 35 to 49 16% 69% 2% 13% 195 50 to 64 16% 72% 1% 11% 263 65 and over 16% 75% 0% 9% 120

Less than $30K 12% 66% 5% 18% 37 $30K to $60K 13% 81% 1% 5% 116 $60K to $75K 12% 76% 2% 10% 53 $75K to $100K 17% 68% 2% 13% 84 $100K or more 20% 70% 0% 10% 164

Attend services 1 or more/week 24% 61% 1% 14% 183 1-2 times a month 8% 81% 1% 10% 77 Less often 13% 74% 1% 13% 222 Never 13% 72% 1% 14% 160

10 yrs or less in NH 13% 66% 1% 20% 109 11 to 20 years 21% 67% 1% 11% 109 More than 20 years 14% 73% 1% 12% 427

North Country 29% 61% 1% 9% 68 Central / Lakes 10% 79% 1% 10% 104 Connecticut Valley 10% 80% 0% 10% 89 Mass Border 15% 68% 1% 17% 180 Seacoast 14% 74% 1% 11% 107 Manchester Area 18% 62% 2% 17% 105

First Cong. Dist 19% 68% 1% 12% 335 Second Cong. Dist 12% 73% 1% 15% 317

10 MIPNH "Of the following list, which one of these will be the single most important issue in your vote for New Hampshire governor this year ... education funding … taxes … the state budget … jobs and the economy ... the cost of health care …the cost of oil and gas … or something else?" ROTATE LIST

Jobs, State Educ Health Economy Taxes Budget Funding Care Other DK (N=) October 24-26 26% 22% 15% 14% 6% 15% 2% 696 October 25-27 29% 21% 12% 13% 7% 15% 3% 646 October 26-28 28% 20% 13% 15% 8% 13% 3% 653

Registered Democrat 29% 17% 8% 20% 10% 13% 4% 191 Registered Undeclared 30% 18% 13% 16% 8% 13% 2% 277 Registered Republican 23% 27% 19% 10% 5% 14% 2% 184

Democrat 33% 14% 9% 21% 10% 12% 3% 293 Independent 26% 23% 9% 16% 7% 17% 2% 109 Republican 22% 27% 19% 9% 6% 13% 3% 232

Core Republican 22% 27% 22% 8% 5% 13% 4% 191 Swing Voter 24% 26% 11% 14% 9% 14% 1% 167 Core Democrat 34% 12% 10% 21% 9% 12% 3% 295

Male 26% 20% 18% 14% 5% 14% 2% 323 Female 30% 20% 9% 17% 10% 12% 3% 330

High school or less 34% 19% 8% 8% 13% 16% 3% 107 Some college 27% 25% 10% 9% 7% 19% 2% 143 College graduate 27% 22% 12% 19% 7% 11% 3% 229 Post-graduate 26% 14% 20% 21% 6% 10% 3% 167

18 to 34 36% 12% 8% 16% 15% 9% 5% 56 35 to 49 31% 20% 10% 16% 5% 15% 3% 195 50 to 64 28% 19% 17% 16% 8% 11% 2% 263 65 and over 19% 26% 13% 14% 9% 18% 1% 120

Less than $30K 32% 11% 4% 9% 14% 22% 8% 37 $30K to $60K 28% 24% 6% 13% 12% 13% 5% 114 $60K to $75K 33% 12% 15% 21% 11% 7% 0% 53 $75K to $100K 18% 27% 17% 20% 3% 13% 2% 86 $100K or more 29% 20% 18% 18% 2% 10% 3% 163

Attend services 1 or more/week 23% 18% 17% 15% 8% 14% 4% 184 1-2 times a month 23% 29% 14% 20% 3% 11% 0% 77 Less often 30% 19% 10% 16% 11% 12% 2% 222 Never 32% 20% 13% 12% 4% 15% 3% 160

10 yrs or less in NH 29% 23% 14% 16% 6% 10% 2% 110 11 to 20 years 29% 22% 12% 14% 7% 14% 1% 111 More than 20 years 27% 18% 13% 16% 8% 14% 3% 425

North Country 27% 17% 19% 17% 10% 5% 5% 68 Central / Lakes 27% 14% 14% 16% 4% 23% 2% 104 Connecticut Valley 27% 22% 11% 21% 9% 9% 2% 91 Mass Border 28% 22% 15% 14% 7% 13% 1% 180 Seacoast 29% 24% 10% 11% 10% 13% 3% 104 Manchester Area 30% 18% 13% 15% 8% 11% 5% 105

First Cong. Dist 28% 21% 14% 14% 7% 13% 3% 333 Second Cong. Dist 27% 19% 13% 17% 8% 13% 2% 320

11 CONG1: "Let's turn to the November election for the U.S. House of Representatives from the FIRST DISTRICT. Will you vote for Jeb Bradley, the Republican ... Carol Shea-Porter, the Democrat ... someone else ... or haven't you decided yet?" IF UNDECIDED: "Would you say you are leaning toward Republican Jeb Bradley or Democrat Carol Shea-Porter?"

Bradley Shea-Porter Other Undecided (N=) October 24-26 40% 48% 1% 11% 341 October 25-27 37% 50% 2% 11% 317 October 26-28 42% 44% 1% 12% 332

Registered Democrat 8% 81% 0% 11% 96 Registered Undeclared 37% 44% 2% 17% 125 Registered Republican 80% 12% 2% 7% 109

Democrat 5% 84% 0% 10% 126 Independent 28% 42% 5% 26% 56 Republican 81% 11% 1% 7% 135

Core Republican 91% 3% 2% 5% 121 Swing Voter 32% 33% 3% 32% 80 Core Democrat 4% 90% 0% 6% 131

Male 48% 41% 1% 10% 174 Female 37% 48% 1% 14% 158

High school or less 32% 55% 4% 9% 54 Some college 51% 36% 0% 12% 71 College graduate 48% 38% 0% 14% 119 Post-graduate 35% 53% 3% 9% 86

18 to 34 20% 36% 0% 45% 25 35 to 49 50% 39% 4% 7% 101 50 to 64 41% 49% 0% 10% 140 65 and over 46% 44% 1% 9% 58

Less than $30K 20% 54% 0% 26% 19 $30K to $60K 40% 48% 3% 9% 48 $60K to $75K 51% 40% 0% 9% 26 $75K to $100K 50% 45% 0% 5% 48 $100K or more 57% 37% 4% 2% 86

Attend services 1 or more/week 52% 30% 2% 16% 93 1-2 times a month 42% 52% 0% 6% 40 Less often 38% 50% 2% 10% 115 Never 39% 50% 1% 10% 77

10 yrs or less in NH 46% 46% 0% 8% 48 11 to 20 years 37% 51% 6% 6% 59 More than 20 years 43% 43% 1% 13% 222

North Country 48% 42% 0% 10% 29 Central / Lakes 54% 39% 1% 6% 44 Connecticut Valley 0% 28% 0% 72% 2 Mass Border 35% 48% 2% 15% 65 Seacoast 28% 57% 2% 12% 107 Manchester Area 58% 30% 1% 11% 85

12 CONG2: "Let's turn to the November election for the U.S. House of Representatives from the SECOND DISTRICT. Will you vote for Jennifer Horn, the Republican ... Paul Hodes, the Democrat ... someone else ... or haven't you decided yet?" IF UNDECIDED: "Would you say you are leaning toward Republican Jennifer Horn or Democrat Paul Hodes?"

Horn Hodes Other Undecided (N=) October 24-26 26% 48% 1% 25% 344 October 25-27 21% 51% 1% 27% 327 October 26-28 21% 55% 0% 24% 321

Registered Democrat 4% 85% 0% 11% 97 Registered Undeclared 12% 54% 0% 35% 149 Registered Republican 61% 19% 0% 20% 75

Democrat 3% 80% 0% 17% 167 Independent 9% 51% 0% 40% 53 Republican 57% 15% 0% 28% 97

Core Republican 73% 4% 0% 23% 70 Swing Voter 14% 40% 0% 46% 86 Core Democrat 2% 85% 0% 13% 166

Male 24% 54% 0% 22% 151 Female 18% 56% 0% 26% 170

High school or less 25% 40% 0% 35% 52 Some college 19% 59% 0% 22% 73 College graduate 23% 52% 0% 25% 111 Post-graduate 15% 69% 0% 16% 80

18 to 34 12% 53% 0% 35% 32 35 to 49 24% 47% 0% 29% 93 50 to 64 19% 62% 0% 19% 125 65 and over 27% 55% 0% 19% 62

Less than $30K 5% 77% 0% 17% 18 $30K to $60K 22% 47% 0% 31% 68 $60K to $75K 22% 69% 0% 9% 27 $75K to $100K 22% 57% 0% 21% 38 $100K or more 27% 59% 0% 15% 77

Attend services 1 or more/week 37% 43% 0% 20% 88 1-2 times a month 9% 71% 0% 20% 37 Less often 16% 55% 0% 28% 107 Never 16% 59% 0% 25% 86

10 yrs or less in NH 15% 50% 0% 35% 60 11 to 20 years 25% 56% 0% 19% 51 More than 20 years 22% 56% 0% 23% 207

North Country 31% 42% 0% 27% 40 Central / Lakes 14% 66% 0% 20% 61 Connecticut Valley 13% 70% 0% 17% 89 Mass Border 27% 44% 0% 28% 113 Manchester Area 15% 42% 0% 43% 19

13 NHHOUSE: "Please think about the November election for your representative to the New Hampshire House of Representatives. Do you plan to vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate for the New Hampshire House of Representatives ... or do you plan to skip the election for New Hampshire House of Representatives this time?" IF UNDECIDED: "Are you leaning toward voting for the Democratic candidate to the New Hampshire House of Representatives or for the Republican candidate?"

GOP Cand DEM Cand Other Undecided (N=) October 24-26 33% 45% 1% 21% 668 October 25-27 29% 45% 0% 25% 619 October 26-28 30% 43% 1% 26% 634

Registered Democrat 5% 80% 1% 15% 189 Registered Undeclared 20% 44% 1% 35% 263 Registered Republican 71% 4% 1% 23% 180

Democrat 2% 82% 0% 16% 285 Independent 14% 22% 3% 62% 108 Republican 71% 7% 1% 22% 223

Core Republican 83% 1% 1% 15% 186 Swing Voter 21% 16% 2% 61% 159 Core Democrat 1% 86% 1% 13% 289

Male 36% 38% 1% 25% 320 Female 24% 49% 1% 26% 314

High school or less 28% 47% 0% 25% 102 Some college 37% 39% 1% 22% 139 College graduate 32% 35% 2% 31% 222 Post-graduate 22% 56% 0% 22% 164

18 to 34 26% 51% 0% 23% 53 35 to 49 32% 36% 2% 31% 190 50 to 64 30% 45% 1% 24% 257 65 and over 32% 47% 0% 21% 117

Less than $30K 15% 66% 0% 19% 33 $30K to $60K 25% 46% 2% 28% 113 $60K to $75K 19% 60% 1% 20% 52 $75K to $100K 40% 45% 0% 15% 82 $100K or more 37% 35% 1% 27% 161

Attend services 1 or more/week 43% 32% 0% 25% 182 1-2 times a month 24% 56% 0% 20% 75 Less often 23% 45% 2% 30% 210 Never 27% 48% 1% 24% 156

10 yrs or less in NH 31% 42% 0% 27% 103 11 to 20 years 32% 45% 0% 23% 109 More than 20 years 29% 43% 1% 26% 415

North Country 40% 38% 0% 22% 68 Central / Lakes 26% 50% 0% 24% 102 Connecticut Valley 19% 52% 1% 28% 87 Mass Border 32% 38% 2% 28% 174 Seacoast 20% 54% 0% 26% 102 Manchester Area 44% 31% 2% 23% 100

First Cong. Dist 34% 43% 0% 23% 326 Second Cong. Dist 26% 44% 1% 28% 308

14 NHSEN: "Please think about the November election for your representative to the New Hampshire Senate. Do you plan to vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate for the New Hampshire Senate ... or do you plan to skip the election for New Hampshire Senate this time?" IF UNDECIDED: "Are you leaning toward voting for the Democratic candidate to the New Hampshire Senate or for the Republican candidate?"

GOP Cand DEM Cand Other Undecided (N=) October 24-26 35% 44% 1% 21% 677 October 25-27 31% 46% 1% 21% 626 October 26-28 33% 45% 1% 21% 638

Registered Democrat 6% 85% 0% 10% 188 Registered Undeclared 24% 44% 0% 32% 268 Registered Republican 75% 7% 2% 16% 182

Democrat 4% 83% 0% 13% 288 Independent 22% 24% 2% 51% 108 Republican 73% 9% 1% 18% 225

Core Republican 87% 1% 1% 10% 188 Swing Voter 26% 19% 1% 54% 159 Core Democrat 2% 88% 1% 10% 292

Male 38% 42% 1% 19% 316 Female 28% 48% 0% 23% 322

High school or less 36% 43% 0% 21% 105 Some college 43% 39% 0% 18% 136 College graduate 34% 37% 2% 28% 226 Post-graduate 22% 63% 1% 15% 165

18 to 34 19% 56% 0% 26% 54 35 to 49 40% 36% 0% 23% 193 50 to 64 32% 47% 2% 20% 260 65 and over 32% 48% 0% 20% 115

Less than $30K 10% 68% 0% 22% 35 $30K to $60K 30% 46% 1% 22% 116 $60K to $75K 25% 60% 1% 13% 53 $75K to $100K 43% 44% 0% 13% 82 $100K or more 42% 41% 0% 17% 163

Attend services 1 or more/week 46% 35% 0% 20% 181 1-2 times a month 27% 53% 0% 20% 77 Less often 27% 49% 1% 23% 210 Never 31% 47% 1% 21% 161

10 yrs or less in NH 34% 43% 0% 23% 107 11 to 20 years 35% 49% 0% 17% 109 More than 20 years 32% 44% 1% 22% 417

North Country 43% 37% 0% 20% 68 Central / Lakes 28% 47% 0% 25% 102 Connecticut Valley 23% 58% 1% 19% 89 Mass Border 33% 43% 0% 24% 177 Seacoast 25% 54% 1% 21% 103 Manchester Area 49% 32% 3% 16% 98

First Cong. Dist 38% 43% 1% 19% 325 Second Cong. Dist 28% 48% 1% 23% 313

15