July 2016 JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY

JICA TICAD VI Policy Papers

Infrastructure in Africa

Prepared by: James Bond Centennial Group International Preface

The global economic environment at the time of TICAD VI (2016) is much less favorable than that prevailing at TICAD V (2013) when JICA presented a long-term vision—Africa 2050: Realizing the Continent’s Full Potential—based on Africa’s increasing convergence with the rest of the world. These changed circumstances have major implications for African policy makers. This paper is one of six commissioned by JICA for TICAD VI to draw out these implications and suggest ways to move forward. The other five are:

• Africa 2050 update • The impact of commodity terms of trade in Africa: Curse, blessing, or manageable reality • Africa’s inclusive growth challenge: Reducing deprivation and creating jobs • Economic diversification of African economies • Regional economic integration in Africa

We are confident that the papers will contribute to a fruitful dialogue among the Heads of State at TICAD VI. In addition, we hope that they will foster the concerted action by African policy makers needed to assure that Africa continues to converge with the rest of the world and, in doing so, meets the aspirations of its people.

Hiroshi Kato Harinder Kohli Vice President President & CEO Japan International Cooperation Agency Centennial Group International

i

Table of contents

1 Executive summary

2 Policy directions for development of Africa’s infrastructure 2 Infrastructure financing needs 2 Diversifying funding sources

3 Africa infrastructure – An overview 3 Africa’s infrastructure lags the rest of the developing world

3 Infrastructure in Africa 6 Electric power 11 Transport 14 Information and communications technologies 17 Water and sanitation

19 Future infrastructure requirements and financing needs 19 Drivers of physical infrastructure needs 20 Financing for infrastructure – Needs and sources

23 Action agenda 23 New models for the delivery of infrastructure services 24 Improved management of assets 24 Innovative financing

27 Annex

35 References

This paper was prepared by James Bond with research assistance from Alden LeClair.

iii

Executive summary

As a continent, Africa is the least endowed region in the in energy resources, and huge renewable resources remain world in terms of infrastructure. It also does not perform well untapped. The situation in North Africa is different, where on the quality of infrastructure services delivered to users. the electricity sector is broadly on a par with the rest of the Infrastructure is scarce, and its performance is generally world; but much of Sub-Saharan Africa (with the exception poor: high cost, erratic, and undependable. of Gabon, Mauritius, Seychelles and South Africa) is a “con- Africa’s low infrastructure endowment is particularly tinent in the dark.” prevalent in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), above all a reflec- tion of this region’s low GDP per capita income levels and Transport low population density. Poor quality of infrastructure ser- Transport infrastructure (roads, rail, airports, and ports) is vices results from chronic financial weakness in the sector, significantly less developed than in other regions of the world, as users do not pay full cost for services they receive, as and transport costs are twice the level of other developing well as from weak operational and financial management. countries (up to four times as high in landlocked countries). Spending needs are not met, assets are not well maintained, Road densities are low; rail networks (with the exception of and the sector suffers from a deficit in management skills. South Africa) are underdeveloped and poorly maintained; However, it will not be enough simply to increase financing and although air transport is growing strongly, it is expen- flowing to infrastructure investments. New sources of financ- sive, connections are patchy, and safety is a problem. African ing, and systemic changes to the way infrastructure services ports are small, port services are costly and shipments are are delivered to improve their quality, will also be needed to often delayed. ensure that Africa’s infrastructure is operated efficiently and maintained effectively. Information and communications technologies Africa has undergone a revolution in mobile telephony due Role of infrastructure in development to the introduction of new technologies and private provision Getting infrastructure right is essential; it underpins devel- of these services. The number of subscribers in Africa has opment of the domestic economy, contributes to inclusive grown at a rate more than twice the global average during growth, and enables regional integration. Low cost infra- this decade, and mobile communications is transforming the structure services are key for export competitiveness and economies of certain countries (e.g. Kenya) through mobile economic diversification. Africa’s combination of low infra- banking and other services. Mobile telephony is an African structure endowment and poor quality of infrastructure success story. But internet penetration via fixed broadband services relative to other developing regions holds back the links remains inadequate. continent economically, and also explains in part Africa’s lag in regional integration. Water and sanitation Africa still lags the rest of the world in provision of clean Electricity drinking water and improved sanitation facilities. In Sub-Sa- Africa, especially Saharan Africa, is starved for electricity. haran Africa, only half the population enjoys access to safe Both access to electricity and per capita power consumption drinking water and the gap is widening due to urbanization. are lower in Africa than in other regions. Yet Africa is rich Improved sanitation (septic tanks and improved latrines)

1   2 2014. Slightlylessthanhalfcamefrom African national (2015 dollars). (2015 dollars)simplytomaintaincurrent endowmentlevels. (mainly for mobile telecommunications networks). Current come of inadequate tariffs, poor payment by governments for come of inadequate tariffs, for poorpayment by governments of thepoorcreditworthiness ofthesector. Thisistheout greater extentonprivatesectorfinancing,animportant of totalfinancing).Policymakerswillhavetocallamuch consistent withtherest ofthe world,annualspendingwould endowment wouldrise over atwenty-yearperiodtolevels butonlyfourpercent fromgovernments, theprivatesector attracting developmentassistance(currently three-quarters annual spending needs are estimated to be $100 billion source inotherregions oftheworld.Butprivateinvestorsand the servicestheyreceive, andweakoperationalfinancial they are currently, mainlybymobilizingfiscal revenue and than one-tenthinruralareas. Infrastructure financingneeds Under anaspirationalscenariowhichsupposesthatAfrica’s Diversifying fundingsources management ofpublicsectorutilities. pled between2004and2012,reaching $74.5billionin reaches less than one-fifth of Africa’s population, and less improve thequalityofservices delivered from infrastructure. increase fundingforinfrastructure investments,andhowto have toreach $168 billionin2020and$2502025 infrastructure Policy directions fordevelopmentofAfrica’s lenders are waryoffinancinginfrastructure inAfricabecause African policymakersneedtoconsiderbothhow It isunlikelythat future financing needs canbe met, as Financing for infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa tri delivered frominfrastructure. infrastructure investments,andhowtoimprovethequalityofservices African policymakersneedtoconsiderbothhowincreasefundingfor - - costs and adjust over time, and government departments costs andadjustovertime,government the use of prepaid cards). In addition, policy makers have to tional andfinancialmanagement. to bothdiversifysources offinancingandimprove opera that has been demonstrated to work elsewhere in the world policy makershavetoestablishtariff mechanismsthatcover pay thefullcostforservicetheyreceive. Thismeansthat ports, and broadband as this is an attractive option internet) infrastructure services(notably, electricity, watersupply, air be more aggressive inthepursuitofprivateprovision ofmany have toavoidaccumulatingarrears toutilities(e.g.through For utilitiestobecomefinanciallyviable,userswillhave - - Infrastructure in Africa

James Bond

Africa infrastructure – An overview Quality of infrastructure services Countries in Africa are far from homogeneous, and their Africa’s infrastructure lags the rest of the developing infrastructure problems and solutions are not everywhere world the same. Worldwide analysis shows that the correlation of infrastructure stocks with income is strong and compelling,1 Infrastructure endowment and in this regard Africa’s low infrastructure endowment is Sub-Saharan Africa is the lowest income region in the above all a reflection of its low GDP per capita income levels. world and is characterized by a large number of small low However, infrastructure performance across countries – that income countries (48 in total). Of the 30 World Bank-classi- is, the delivery of services related to physical infrastructure fied low income countries in the world, 25 are in SSA. This stocks (transport services, communication services, deliv- presents a particular challenge for infrastructure develop- ery of quality electricity and water services) – is generally ment. Overall, the African continent is by all measures the not strongly related to income levels. Some countries with least endowed region of the developing world in infrastruc- 1. Indeed, cross-country and time series analyses demonstrate that per cap- ture stocks, even compared to low-middle income countries ita GDP and infrastructure stocks rise in almost lock step across the world: an increase of one percent in per capita GDP is met by an increase of one in other regions (Table 1). percent in infrastructure stocks. It is not clear, however, what the causality mechanism is (World Bank, 1994. World Development Report 1994: Infra- structure and Development.).

Table 1: Key infrastructure statistics

Indicator Sub-Saharan Africa Low-income countries Middle-income countries Roads (km/1000 km2) Paved road density 49 134 461 Total road density 152 211 757 Telecommunications (lines/100 population) Main line density 1 1 10 Mobile density 71 57 94 Internet density 19 6 34 Electricity Generation capacity 37 326 (MW/million population) Electricity coverage (% of population 35 41 87 with access) Water and sanitation (% of population with access) Improved water 66 66 92 Improved sanitation 30 28 65

Source: Gwilliam et al. (2008); World Bank (2016)

3  JAMES BOND “service content”ofinfrastructure), whichrelate tolevelsof 4 quality ofinfrastructure services across sectorsisnothighly on twofactors:first,paymentbyusersforthefullcostof cost andtimeforthetransporter. cantly degradethequalityoftransportservicesbyincreasing chandise onaroad networkisnotsimplyafunction ofthe easier to obtain a connection. The cost of transporting mer of the density of electric power networks, and in countries can vary significantly from one country to thenext irrespective example, theeaseofobtaininganelectricpowerconnection cal infrastructure stockdepends onintangibleelements(the of infrastructure servicesdelivered foragivenlevelofphysi correlated withincountries.That is,thefactthatacountry countries withgreater amountsofphysicalinfrastructure sustain good service standards financing nor attract external services (especially in power, ports and civil aviation) so that skills andhumancapacity, theefficiency ofpublicadministra structure services with these endowments, whereas other with more extensiveelectricity network,itisnotnecessarily the physicallife oftheasset. the serviceprovidersWithout adequate are financiallyviable. tion, andtheservicefocusofbusinessenvironment. For to predict howwellitdoes withphoneservices.Thequality facilities cannotbeadequately maintained,whichshortens fully meetAfrica’s infrastructure needs).Second,perhapsthe from themarkets(publicfundingwillneverbeadequateto may deliverfarpoorer infrastructure services.Moreover, the physical plantcannotbeoperated toitsfullcapacity, and efficient management, management skillsatalllevels. Without road density of the country; informal roadblocks will signifi investments cannot be adequately planned and executed, cash generationfrom userfeesoperatorscanneither internal biggest deficitintheAfricaninfrastructure sectorconcerns has apoorperformanceinitselectricitysectordoesnothelp low infrastructure endowmentsdeliverrelatively goodinfra The qualityof infrastructure servicescrucially depends infrastructure or on the quality of infrastructure services delivered. infrastructure oronthequalityofservices Africa does not perform well on either the endowment of physical - - - - - generally poor:highcost,erratic,andundependable. of physical infrastructure oronthe quality of infrastructure growth does all that it can toreduce poverty. expanding trade,copingwithpopulationgrowth, reducing ensure thatcapitalstocks, whateverthelevel,deliverquality ensure thatAfrica’s infrastructure isoperated efficiently and capacity fortheoperationofthesestockswillalsoneededto capital stocks,andanenhancedattentiontomanagerial are delivered, agreater focusonmaintenanceofexisting services delivered. Performanceofinfrastructure inAfricais supply, willdomore forinclusivegrowth thanotherinfrastruc structure raisesproductivity andlowersproduction costs,but services. Systemic changestothewayinfrastructure services services related to this infrastructure stock—is that it will not would not improve its efficiency in delivery of infrastructure ture servicestargetinghigherincomepopulations. try’s successandanother’s failure indiversifyingproduction, ture wouldaddress theproblem oflowphysicalstockbut for example,linkingruraland urban markets,orruralwater poverty, orimproving environmental conditions. Goodinfra maintained effectively. Betteroperationandmaintenancewill 2. World Bank(1994) Implications forinfrastructure financing Infrastructure’s role indevelopment it hastoexpandfastenoughaccommodategrowth. The infrastructure servicestothecontinent’s citizens. investments inAfrica.Simplyincreasing finance forinfrastruc kind of infrastructure put in place also determines whether be enoughjusttoincrease financingflowingtoinfrastructure low infrastructure endowments andinefficient supplyof The implicationofAfrica’s dualinfrastructure weakness— Africa doesnotperformwelloneithertheendowment Adequacy of infrastructure helps determine one coun

2 Rural roads, - - - - INFRASTRUCTURE IN AFRICA  - - - - 5 A sometimes overlooked but critically important factor in A sometimes overlooked but critically important For the 16 landlocked countries in Africa, the cost of trading is level. Countries need to be connected by road, rail, electricity road, level. Countries need to be connected by incumbent monopoly utility, a model that has not been a not been a a model that has incumbent monopoly utility, institutions and coordinate tariffs and regulations at a regional at a regional and regulations tariffs institutions and coordinate needs of Africa’s population than fixed line communication, population than fixed line communication, needs of Africa’s paradigm a new for allow electricity solar as such nologies munications technology – two decades ago allowed a very munications technology – two decades to what would have been the case with landlines. pared an rather than traditional centralized grid delivery through much of the continent. Africa’s low infrastructure endowment endowment infrastructure low Africa’s continent. the of much tenuous at best. means that these physical interlinkages are the development of infrastructure services is the technology the development of infrastructure to the communication telephony has better corresponded large buses or rail, are tems involving mini-buses, linking to within countries. It is not enough simply to create regional regional not enough simply to create within countries. It is Similarly, in the electric power sector, new renewable tech new renewable in the electric power sector, Similarly, so the introduction of mobile phones – a then-new com then-new a – phones mobile of introduction the so in voice and text communication com significant increase success on the continent. In urban transport, hybrid sys as road, rail and electricity transmission lines between and and between lines transmission electricity and rail road, as absent or weak in and communications networks. These are choice within infrastructure sectors. For example, mobile sectors. For example, mobile choice within infrastructure systems) home or solar (mini-grids delivery power electric of 50 times higher and the volumes of trade are 60% lower than in 50 times higher and the volumes of trade are African coastal countries. Technology choice Technology - - - 3 Average cost: $440 Average time: 4 days Average Average cost: $2,793 Average time: 38 days Average Importing and exporting are costly in Africa Importing and exporting are • • • • The Infrastructure Consortium The Africa (2015) for To import a 20-foot container in Singapore: To To import a 20-foot container in Sub-Saharan Africa: To Regional integration requires both a coordinated set of set of both a coordinated Regional integration requires Domestic markets, e.g. for agricultural produce, are are produce, agricultural for e.g. markets, Domestic Products and services tradeable on international on tradeable services mar and Products Infrastructure weakness impedes inclusive growth. The The weakness impedes inclusive growth. Infrastructure Africa’s combination of low infrastructure endowment endowment infrastructure low of combination Africa’s Box 1: less developed. Local suppliers are not always able to meet less developed. Local suppliers are hurdles include: hurdles kets reduces opportunities for the evolution of agriculture agriculture of evolution the for opportunities reduces kets kets have higher costs than those exported by other regions by other regions kets have higher costs than those exported 3. In past decades, localized famines in countries like Ethiopia and Malawi Products are more expensive for consumers. expensive more are Products not widely shared throughout the country. For example, the the country. throughout not widely shared rules across the region and physical interconnections such such interconnections and physical the region rules across from subsistence to market-based. subsistence from subsisted despite local food surpluses elsewhere. This was due to the in subsisted despite local food surpluses elsewhere. adequacy of transport infrastructure able to channel the surpluses to famine able adequacy of transport infrastructure areas. absence of transport linkages between rural and urban mar absence of transport linkages between rural absence of infrastructure means that the fruits of growth are are means that the fruits of growth absence of infrastructure and poor quality infrastructure services relative to other other to relative services infrastructure quality poor and can compete in. (Box 1). This reduces the international (Box 1). This reduces competitiveness of demand, e.g. because electric power is not readily available. readily demand, e.g. because electric power is not developing regions means that the continent has additional additional has continent the means that regions developing development These to overcome. development hurdles Source: African exporters and limits the sectors that African firms that African firms African exporters and limits the sectors A sometimes overlooked but critically important factor in the development of factor in the development important but critically overlooked A sometimes servicesinfrastructure sectors. infrastructure choice within the technology is  JAMES BOND 6 Africa. Nearlyhalf–45percent --ofthiscapacityismade 4. Castellano,A.,Kendall,Nikomarov, M.,&Swemmer, T. (2015).“Pow 2), Africarepresents 3.2%oftotalworldgeneration,slightly (Gabon, Mauritius,Seychelles,SouthAfrica),Sub-Saha On-grid powergenerationcapacityinSub-SaharanAfrica capacity, oroverallconsumption.Africancountriesstruggle ers shouldbesensitivetothetechnologicalchoicesof very significantpossibilitiesforpoorlyendowedcountries, a strikingexampleofthisphenomenon.Thus,decision-mak alent inmore developedcountries. Again,mobilephonesare sumption are lowerinAfricathanotherregions (Table 3). starved forelectricity. theexceptionofafewcountries With ering Africa.”McKinsey. was 90GWin2012,witharound halfbeinglocatedinSouth whether from the pointofviewenergyaccess,installed with centralizedapproaches. to sustain GDP growth in part because of the lack of electric the Africancontinenthashadmore successwithdecentral Electric power more thanGermany(2.7%)andtwo-thirds ofJapan(4.3%). ran Africa’s powersectorissignificantlyunderdeveloped, models. It should be noted that in some cases earlier tech making inroads intotraditionaltransportservicedelivery up ofcoal(mainlySouthAfrica andBotswana);22percent nology choices constrain later choices. Also, it seems that Electricity consumptionandaccess ity. infrastructure-related decisions. ized approaches and multiple operators (e.g. mobile) than because oftheabilitytoleapfrog theolder technologies prev 5. i.e.before transmissionanddistributionlosses. 4 Measured intermsofgross electricitygenerated Africa generally, and Sub-Saharan Africa in particular, is Overall, theastuteadoptionofnewtechnologiespermits Both accesstoelectricityandpercapitapowercon overall consumption. whether fromthepointofviewenergyaccess,installedcapacity, or Africa), Sub-SaharanAfrica’s powersectorissignificantlyunderdeveloped, theexceptionofafewcountries(Gabon,Mauritius, Seychelles,South With 5 (Table ------developing mini-andoff-grid renew powersystems. Modern Complex, nearthecityofOuarzazate,acapacity160 of oil-fueledgeneratorsand,more recently, greater focuson cent naturalgas(mainlyNigeriaandalongtheroute ofthe energy hasbeendevelopedin the RiftValley. Solarenergyis of 2000 MW, and delivery prices are expected to come down one millionhomesby2018andwillreduce carbonemissions ables accountforlessthan2percent ofthetotal,buttheyare West AfricanGasPipeline).Insufficient, unreliable orinacces and the European Investment Bank. Noor 1 is expected to be and isbeingmanagedbyaconsortiumledSaudiAra sible gridsupplyhasresulted inlarge-scaleprivateownership with eachsubsequentphase. followed by two subsequent phases with a total final capacity followed bytwosubsequentphaseswithatotalfinalcapacity ferent. InFebruary2016Morocco commissionedtheworld’s recently concludedaprivatesectorwindgeneratingfarm populations suchasthoseinSub-SaharanAfrica’s ruralareas. mini- andoff-grid systems and more relevant forlow-density resources, and its huge renewable resources (solar, wind, $0.19/kWh. Theproject isco-financedbythe World Bank untapped. Africa’s latestartwithrenewable energyissurpris MW. Thisplantwillproduce enoughenergytopowerover in the Turkana Valley (capacity: 310 MW), and geothermal ing giventhatthesesources are particularlyappropriate for 6. ClimateInvestment Funds(CIF). beginning toemergeacross the continent. beginning toemergeinZambia, wherehas thegovernment bia’s ACWA Power, whichwillselltheelectricityproduced for by anestimated760,000tonsperyear. hydroelectricity; 17 percent petroleum products and 14 per hydroelectric, andgeothermalinthe Rift Valley) remain largest concentratedsolarpower(CSP)plant,theNoor1 The paradox is that Sub-Saharan Africa is rich in energy In North Africa the situation concerning renewablesIn NorthAfricathesituationconcerning isdif Progress isbeing madeinthecontinent.Kenyahas 6 Theplantwasbuilt ------INFRASTRUCTURE IN AFRICA  7 1.0% 1.1% 3.2% 2.6% 1.3% 5.4% 4.5% 0.3% 0.7% 43.2% 17.9% 21.8% 22.0% 100.0% Share 2.1% 0.6% 3.5% 6.8% 6.1% 3.3% 2.4% 0.9% 0.9% 1.1% -2.0% -0.1% -0.7% -0.1% 2015/ 2014 68.5 180.6 249.7 260.9 759.6 633.3 306.7 1302.4 5303.4 1089.3 4303.0 5242.9 10400.0 24097.7 2015 64.1 170.2 254.7 252.5 741.5 638.0 303.4 1276.0 5273.0 1052.5 4306.9 5248.3 10302.2 23893.6 2014 59.9 982.3 164.0 256.1 247.6 727.6 641.3 297.1 1268.0 5345.1 9799.7 4275.1 5213.5 23336.3 2013 57.5 970.5 161.9 257.9 238.4 715.6 619.8 296.4 1233.9 5385.0 9278.7 4253.5 5169.7 22753.4 2012 Infrastructure services delivered by the electricity sector sector electricity the by delivered services Infrastructure 52.0 906.9 148.6 262.5 218.5 681.7 619.6 292.1 1182.6 5330.3 8866.2 4305.2 5216.9 22184.6 2011 is an indicator of overall electricity consumption. Access to is an indicator of overall electricity consumption. Access to In the case of indicator of the quality of the service delivered. cannot be measured by total gross generation alone, which by total gross cannot be measured important, more indeed or important, is also an electricity - 45.6 869.2 143.5 259.6 218.3 667.0 588.2 275.6 1143.0 5357.8 8260.2 4332.8 5196.6 21493.8 2010 42.8 805.7 133.3 249.6 199.6 625.3 595.5 267.8 7527.9 4147.8 5011.0 1085.4 5128.6 20183.9 2009 40.0 760.2 127.9 258.3 198.2 624.3 618.0 269.3 7313.2 4326.1 5213.4 1073.9 5365.4 20350.4 2008 37.0 717.2 119.0 263.5 191.7 611.1 616.8 263.2 7016.7 4365.4 5245.5 1034.7 5330.1 19955.3 2007 35.0 668.4 110.7 253.8 190.3 589.8 592.6 256.2 988.2 6457.6 4266.6 5115.5 5246.7 19066.2 2006 33.6 562.0 104.0 244.9 179.4 627.0 248.0 945.2 604.4 5973.1 5141.0 5109.9 4257.5 18358.1 2005 Electricity generation by region (terawatt-hours) by region Electricity generation World Bank (2016) Total Total World Africa Total Africa Total Asia Pacific East Algeria Egypt South Africa Other America Total & Europe Eurasia Total Middle Mexico Total North America S. Total & Cent. Region US Canada Table 2: Table launched an ambitious privately funded program with sup launched an ambitious privately funded program Source: Infrastructure services delivered by the electricity sector cannot be servicesInfrastructure be sector cannot the electricity by delivered of overall is an indicator alone, which generation by total gross measured indeedor important, an also is electricity to Access consumption. electricity of the service indicator of the quality more important, delivered. port from IFC (initially, two 50 MW solar photovoltaic plants). photovoltaic solar MW 50 two (initially, IFC from port Solar home systems and mini-grids are being developed in Solar home systems and mini-grids are Senegal, South Africa, and Tanzania). an increasing number of countries (including Malawi, Kenya, number an increasing  JAMES BOND 8 Source: compared toaworldwideaverageof70percent. More than electrification ratesoflessthanone-third; i.e.twooutofthree electricity access,NorthAfricaisforthemostpartonapar sub-Saharan Africanshavenoaccesstoelectricityatall.In Sub-Saharan Africa, average residential electricity consump 620 millionpeopleinSub-Saharan Africaare withoutaccess with therest oftheworld,withelectrificationratesmore tion percapita is equivalenttoaround half theaveragelevel to electricity. Forthosethatdohaveelectricity accessin than 99percent. Sub-SaharanAfricahoweverissignificantly rural areas, electrificationisonlyontheorder of17percent percent compared toaworldwideaverageof95percent. In urban areas in Sub-Saharan Africa, electrification reaches 59 underserved compared tootherregions (Table 4),withoverall Table 3: income countries Low &middle South Asia Carib. (developing) Latin America& (developing) East Asia&Pacific Best, Comparator Comparators Best, Africa Africa Sub-Saharan Africa World Bank (2016) Bank World Region to electricity. More than 620 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa are without access Access toelectricityandpowerconsumption Mauritius, Morocco, Sey chelles, Tunisia, Gabon Access toelectricity Algeria, Egypt,Libya, Moldova, Uzbekistan (% ofpopulation) Kyrgyz Republic, (100) (100) 81 78 96 96 79 44 35 - Mauritius, Morocco, Tuni (% ofruralpopulation) Access toelectricity, Algeria, Egypt,Libya, Moldova, Uzbekistan Kyrgyz Republic, sia, Gabon(100) rural (100) 26 15 69 69 86 93 68 - This underminesthefinancial viabilityoftheutility. Second, of Chinaorone-fifth ofEurope. Sub-SaharanAfricaisliterally a deliverymodelofcentralizedpublicsectorutility. The a “continentinthedark.” sector skills. scarcity are multiple.Africa has almost universallychosen the operation of complex technical installations than public the modeldoesnotallowtocall onprivatesectormanage for powerconsumedare notwellaligned,andusersforthe ment skillswhichare forthemostpartmore appropriate for most partdonotcoverthefullcostofpowertheyreceive. public sectorutilitymodelhastwocrucialweaknesses.First, incentives foradequatetariff setting,billingandcollection The reasons forSub-SaharanAfrica’s electricpower - (% of urban population) Access toelectricity, Kyrgyz Republic,Mol Algeria, Egypt,Libya, Mauritius, Morocco, Seychelles, Tunisia, dova, Uzbekistan, Vietnam (100) Vietnam Gabon (100) urban 97.4 70 72 95 97 99 98 - South Africa(4407) (kWh percapita) Uzbekistan (1611) Electric power consumption 1666 1849 2720 846 496 640 844 - INFRASTRUCTURE IN AFRICA  - - - - - 9 - 78% 74% 85% 79% 70% 67% 26% 99% 17% 100% 100% Perhaps most 8 tion rate (%) Rural electrifica : The consequences of low elec 96% 96% 98% 98% 95% 92% 68% 59% 100% 100% 100% Urban electrification rate (%) Low electricity access 86% 81% 95% 92% 83% 78% 43% 99% 32% 8. For example, landlocked Niger, faced with a reduction in electricity supply faced with a reduction 8. For example, landlocked Niger, investments in conventional equipment over more distrib investments in conventional equipment over more ade unable to assure these utilities have been importantly, operating at a fraction of their installed and are into disrepair from its neighbor Nigeria, has installed expensive diesel generating power its neighbor Nigeria, has installed expensive diesel generating from uted investments in renewable technologies. uted investments in renewable power utilities also have not pursued the most appropri power utilities also have not pursued plants based on fuel imported from the coast, rather than resorting to abun the coast, rather than resorting plants based on fuel imported from for inclusive growth. Lack of electricity reduces the ability ability the reduces electricity of Lack growth. inclusive for for transformation and cold storage of agricultural products, Sector issues tricity access rates in rural areas constrain the possibilities constrain the possibilities tricity access rates in rural areas dant solar energy. ate technologies and have in many cases preferred large large preferred ate technologies and have in many cases good at operating installed assets. Sub-Saharan Africa’s Africa’s Sub-Saharan assets. installed operating at good capacity. (generation, transmission and distribution) nor has it been it been nor has and distribution) transmission (generation, quate maintenance of existing assets, which have often fallenoften have assets, which maintenance of existing quate 100% 100% rate (%) - - - Electrification 1201 1200 635 1 634 526 1 1 237 22 17 Population without electricity (millions) In many, if not most, Sub-Sa In many, 7 India China North Africa Region Sub-Saharan Africa Electricity access, regional aggregates (2013) aggregates regional Electricity access, IEA (2015) In essence, the centralized utility model of public sector One notable exception to the public sector model is model is One notable exception to the public sector Latin America Middle East economies & OECD Transition World Developing Asia Developing countries Africa l’Électricité operating under a concession system. The The system. concession a under operating l’Électricité haran African countries the generation segment of the sector of segment generation the countries African haran is theoretically open to private investment in the form of open to private investment in the form of is theoretically ran Africa at mobilizing financing for electricity investments investments electricity for financing mobilizing at Africa ran political risk, have severely constrained the amount of privateof amount the constrained severely have risk, political results of the Ivorian system have been very good both in of the Ivorian system have been very good both in results Independent Power Producers (IPPs). However, the lack of (IPPs). However, Independent Power Producers terms of access and reliability of supply, but there are ques are but there of supply, terms of access and reliability the example in tions about how easy it would be to replicate Table 4: Table ownership and operation has not been good in Sub-Saha creditworthiness of power utilities and their inability to pay for creditworthiness of perceptions with coupled IPPs, the by delivered electricity other Sub-Saharan countries. owned and managed enterprise Compagnie Ivoirienne de Ivoirienne de owned and managed enterprise Compagnie financing available. Côte d’Ivoire, which two decades ago introduced a privately a introduced ago decades two which d’Ivoire, Côte 7. An attempt to replicate the model in Guinea was unsuccessful, for example. the model in Guinea was unsuccessful, 7. An attempt to replicate Source: In essence, the centralized utility model of public sector ownership and and sector ownership model of public utility the centralized In essence, financing at mobilizing Africa good in Sub-Saharan has not been operation nor and distribution) transmission (generation, investments for electricity assets. at operating installed has it been good  JAMES BOND 10 development of industries such as manufacturing and of a competitiveness forAfricanfirms(Box2). erators are polluting and thecost ofelectricity produced is wood andcharcoal) forcooking. Eachyearnearly 600,000 for electricity, installhigh-costdiesel generators.Suchgen formal system,manymiddle-incomeAfricans,desperate for cottageindustriesandafter-hours Nearly730 learning. priate technologywouldcost.Suchaddedcostsreduces multiples ofwhatelectricityfromsectorwithappro amodern servicesector.modern Intheabsenceofsupplyfrom the pollution resulting from the traditional use of these solid fuels. premature deathsinAfricacanbeattributedtohouseholdair million rely onthetraditional useofsolidbiomass(mainlyfuel period todaylighthoursonly, withnegativeconsequences provision of clean lighting and thus reduces the productive hence constrainsincomesinruralareas; itprecludes the Source: Box 2: as $100bnperyearaccording estimates. togovernment been amajorconstrainttogrowth, costingtheeconomyasmuch utility. Inefficiencies inNigeria’s powersectorhavetraditionally polluting dieselgeneratorstomakeupforfailingsofgovernment class hasinstalled anestimated further 10,000MW ofexpensive, installed andfunctional,ninetimessuperior.) TheNigerianmiddle with apopulationofaboutquarterNigeria’s, has45000MW consumption isoneofthelowestinworld.(SouthAfrica, and maintenance.At125kWhpercapita,Nigeria’s electricity 4,000 MWcanfunctionatanygiventimepooroperation ating capacityofanestimated8,000MW, ofwhichonlyaround “Doing Business”report. Nigeriaisplaced182ndoutof189 it comestopower, according totheWorld Bank’s most recent In urbanareas, lowelectrificationratesconstrain the Nigeria, withapopulationof175million,hasinstalledgener Nigeria ranksamongtheworstperformers intheworldwhen The Infrastructure Consortium for (2015) Africa The Consortium Infrastructure Nigeria—A failedelectricpowersystem industries such as manufacturing and of a modern service sector.industries suchasmanufacturingandofamodernservice In urbanareas,lowelectrificationratesconstrainthedevelopmentof - - - - Africa are inmanycasespoorlyrun(Box2).Themostegre companies financial viabilityandlackofcreditworthiness oflocaldistribution plexity. Notably, thereform doesnotaddress theunderlyingpoor It isstill not clear whether this reform canwork, given its com overhaul thesystemandbringinprivatecapitalexpertise. embarked on a very ambitious reform program to completely KWh, compared totheaveragegridtariff of$0.13. backup diesel-fueledgeneratorsrunatacostof$0.30-0.50per the costofdoingbusinessformanyfirms.Theprivatesector’s impediment to growth in Nigeria’s industrial sector, adding to South Africa(168 countries surveyed in terms of ease of getting electricity, behind operation, notablyinadequatebillingofelectricityconsumed thecommercial aspectsofthegious weaknessconcerns cially weak and often unable to finance maintenance and and low rates of collection of outstanding bills. Non-technical sometimes asmuch one-third of total electricity generated. ran Africa’s power utilities, with the result that these systems maintenance, andhavebetterfinancialviability. new investments.NorthAfricanpowerutilitiesontheother utility incomewiththeresult thatpowerutilitiesare finan Poor billingandcollection,theftofelectricity, reduces in part to the fragile financial situation of mostof Sub-Saha have fallenintodisrepair. Inadequatemaintenancereduces hand have a significantly better track record at operation and losses –essentially, theftofelectricity–canbeveryhigh, Supported bythedevelopmentcommunity, Nigeriahas The lackofareliable supplyofelectricityisseenasamajor Inefficient system operation Insufficient maintenance of installed assets th ) andKenya(127 th : Systems in Sub-Saharan ). : This isdue - - - - INFRASTRUCTURE IN AFRICA  - - - - - 11 : This is due most : This is due most Road density in Africa is 152 km/km2, com km/km2, 152 is Africa in density Road pared with 211 km/km2 for low income countries countries income low for km/km2 211 with pared • Inadequate financing for electricity All four power pools in South, West, Central and East Central and East All four power pools in South, West, Transport infrastructure in Africa is significantly less devel infrastructure Transport by governments for the electricity they consume) means that inadequate billing and collection (in particular, poor payment inadequate billing and collection (in particular, in the developmental stage, with more progress shown by shown by progress in the developmental stage, with more Regional Economic Communities (RECs). in their respective Roads, rail, airports, ports Pool (CAPP) was launched in 2003 and the EasternPool (CAPP) was launched Africa still in 2005. The two power pools are Power Pool (EAPP), notably to the inability of public sector power utilities to gen notably to the inability of public sector power neither to finance needed investments nor maintenance. roll out new capacity. The combination of regulated tariffs tariffs The combination of regulated new capacity. out roll 0.2 percent (in CAPP) and 7.5 percent (in SAPP), a tiny frac (in CAPP) and 7.5 percent 0.2 percent tries and in landlocked countries, up to four times as high tries and in landlocked countries, up to four times as high trade, the level of energy traded in 2009 ranges only betweenranges the level of energy traded in 2009 trade, to power pools in Asia or Latin America. tion compared associated with that do not cover long run marginal costs through WAPP has not yet started. The Central Africa Power has not yet started. The WAPP through the EAPP. significantly reduces African competitiveness and exports, exports, and competitiveness African reduces significantly as developing countries. The high cost of transport services cost of transport countries. The high as developing and constrains economic growth. adequate maintenance, undertake existing investments and adequate maintenance, undertake existing erate sufficient internal cash flow from user fees to finance finance to fees user from internal flow cash erate sufficient 5). (Table of the world oped than in other developing regions financial returns are not adequate, and utilities can afford and utilities can afford not adequate, returns are financial Although all power pools are working to promote energy energy working to promote Although all power pools are Africa and COMELEC are recognized, specialized institutions recognized, Africa and COMELEC are Transport Transport costs are twice the level of other developing coun costs are Transport - - - - - : Sub-Saharan Africa’s utilities utilities Africa’s Sub-Saharan : : Power trading in Africa started in the 1950s, in the the in 1950s, the in started Africa in trading Power : Inadequate regional integration of national electricity sys Inadequate regional integration of national Poor technology choice technology Poor The North African countries created an association an association The North African countries created limited extent. lic of Congo and Zambia in the Copper Belt. Over the past the Over Belt. Copper in the Zambia and of Congo lic have traditionally invested in centralized systems using con have traditionally invested in centralized ishes the economic return on assets. return ishes the economic Pool (SAPP) was created in 1995, covering South Africa and South Africa in 1995, covering was created Pool (SAPP) Distributed electricity generation and supply models based models based Distributed electricity generation and supply natural gas), associated with a transmission network for network for transmission with a associated gas), natural pool on the continent. SAPP introduced the Short-Term-En pool on the continent. SAPP introduced priority for decision-makers. tems form of bilateral agreements between Democratic Repub form of bilateral agreements for African countries, particularly as they could seek greater could seek greater for African countries, particularly as they to be more integrated on the African continent following the to be more two decades, electricity transmission systems have begun two decades, electricity transmission systems have begun to existing centralized systems, particularly to accelerate to accelerate to existing centralized systems, particularly transport of electricity generated to centers of consumption. transport of electricity generated to centers a useful addition would in many cases be the Rift Valley) the life span of investments in the power sector and dimin the life span of investments Such decentralized investments represent a real opportunity a real Such decentralized investments represent at this point country systems are integrated only to a very integrated only to a very at this point country systems are access in rural areas where population densities are low. low. population densities are where access in rural areas seem to be a high amounts of private financing, and would or multilateral agreements and market-based energy trade and market-based energy trade or multilateral agreements of power utilities, the “Comité Maghrébin de l’Electricité de l’Electricité of power utilities, the “Comité Maghrébin other SADCC countries. It is now the most advanced power ergy Markets (STEM) in April 2001 to trade spot electricity. creation of several regionally integrated systems. However, integrated systems. However, of several regionally creation on renewables (notably solar and wind, with geothermal in (notably solar and wind, with geothermal in on renewables ventional energy sources (e.g. coal, petroleum products and products (e.g. coal, petroleum ventional energy sources (COMELEC)” established in 1989. The Southern Africa Power 2001 to promote energy trade between member countries. energy trade between member countries. 2001 to promote Currently the power trade in WAPP is still under bilateral is still under bilateral the power trade in WAPP Currently needed investments nor maintenance. needed investments The combination of regulated tariffs that do not cover long run marginal run marginal cover long that do not regulated tariffs of The combination poor (in particular, billing and collection inadequate with costs associated means that they consume) electricity for the by governments payment to finance can afford neither and utilities not adequate, returns are financial The Western Africa Power Pool (WAPP) was established in was established in Africa Power Pool (WAPP) The Western  JAMES BOND 12 10. TheEconomist. (4June2016).“RailwaysinAfrica:Puffed out.” related withGDPdensity, i.e.,GDPpersq.km.ManyAfricancountrieshave 9. Infrastructure density (e.g., road km. per 1000 sq. km.) is very highly cor km.—and hencelowinfrastructure density. both lowGDPpercapitaandpopulation density, yieldinglowGDPpersq. • • Air transporthasgrown strongly inAfricarecent African trainscarriedabout158billionton-kilometers of theworld(notably, revenue from commercial instal of supportfrom concessionsenjoyedinmanyparts years. Theavailabilityofairfreight services,inparticu construction, notably in East Africa (Kenya-Uganda, carried. Of that, 84 percent was in South Africa, of freight, orroughly halfofwhatAustralia’s railways countries. and landingchargesare highowingtotheabsence and Djibouti-Ethiopia)West Africa (Benin-Niger- and deterioration of networks. However, several and ofincompatiblegauges.According totheInter safety isaproblem. Airportsare ofteninadequate, South Africaare underdeveloped, poorlymaintained, which has a modern network.Elsewherewhich hasamodern inAfrica, worldwide, and757km/km2formiddleincome three decadesago,dueto absenceofmaintenance the efficiency oftransport of goodsby road. the world.Also,non-physicalconstraintssuchas railways carryafractionofthevolumestwoor roadblocks andtruckingcartels, significantly reduce road transport costs higher than in other regions of middle incomecountries.Roadqualityislowerand paved compared withover60percent forlowand new railregional projects are underconsiderationor national UnionofRailways,in2014sub-Saharan Burkina Faso-Côted’Ivoire). butrailnetworksoutside Rail couldbeanalternative, in Africa is expensive, connections are patchy, and lations withinairports).Continent-wide, airtraffic lar, hashelpedboostexports.However, airtransport but the African transport sector does not use its physical assets inefficiently. In Africa, not only is there a low overall endowment of transport infrastructure 9 Under one-third of African roads are 10 - - - - Transport servicesunderpin all logisticsoperations,i.e.the 11. AfricanDevelopment Bank. dead weight,whichreduces growth andoverallwelfare in detailed coordination ofinteractionsinvolvingmanypeople, economy. Inefficient logisticsoperationsthusconstitute a and theefficiency withwhichitisused.InAfrica,notonly the Africantransportsectordoes notuseitsphysicalassets there alowoverallendowmentoftransportinfrastructure but the economy. Thequalityoftransportservicesisafunction facilities orsupplies.Logisticsunderpintradeandthemarket Issues inthetransportsector inefficiently. This isforseveral reasons, givenbelow. both of thecountry’s endowment in physical infrastructure Transport servicequalityisimportantinaneconomy. • African portsare smallcompared totheirpeersworld cartelization ofnationalsystemsandtheabsence control requires majorupgradestoimprove theconti often delayed leading to physical and financial losses. often delayedleadingtophysicalandfinanciallosses. Only six of the continent’s ports are able to accom other developingcountryports(4-5millionTEU/year). a regional openskies policysignificantlyincreases a result, portservices are costlyandshipmentsare strengthening regulatory oversightandachievingfull Said inEgypthaveannualcapacitiesequivalentto weak terminalfreight and handling management, wide. Only Durban in South Africa, and Damietta/Port the costofairtransport. modate Post andSuper Panamaxvessels (Durban, nent’s balefulsafetyrecord. Policychallengesinclude Louis andTangiers). Manyoftheportsoperateat Damietta/Port Said, Port Elizabeth, Cape Town, Port inadequate maintenanceanddredging capacity. As below capacityduetolowberth/dockingfacilities, liberalization oftheairtransportsector. Inparticular, 11

- - - INFRASTRUCTURE IN AFRICA  - - - - 13 28,036,660 39,156,198 20,900,073 1,3879,582 240,855,146 342,476,160 Container port Egypt (8,810,990) India (11,655,635) equivalent units) traffic (TEU: 20 foot traffic , Centennial Group International. , Centennial Group 912,858 704,648 1,003,384 5,337,532 2,206,993 10,706,313 Air transport, India (720,050) TICAD VI Policy Papers . registered carrier carrier registered 12 South Africa (195,714) departures worldwide departures Maritime transport is in many cases cartelized as as cartelized cases many in is transport Maritime 13 : In many African countries (particularly in Sub-Saharan Lack of competition and cartelization of transport ser transport of cartelization and competition of Lack locked countries (Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali). Air transport is Burkina Faso, Mali). locked countries (Niger, high ticket prices, and air links between African countries are high ticket prices, and air links between African countries are infrastructure, rather than the constraints due to physical rather than the constraints due to physical infrastructure, infrastructure tegration in Africa,” ridors are due to the shortcomings in soft “behind the border” due to the shortcomings in soft “behind the border” ridors are made in Europe, or a distant hub such as Addis Ababa or Johannesburg. made in Europe, vices transporters. Trucking cartels exist, for example, in West in West cartels exist, for example, transporters. Trucking spotty. controlled by a small number of airlines leading to excessively controlled officials and increase the time and cost of trading. By some the time and cost of trading. By some and increase officials of delays on major transport cor estimates some 75 percent Africa) there is an insufficient degree of competition among of degree is an insufficient Africa) there the added cost hinders development of land Africa where 12. Harmon, L.M., et al. (2009), as quoted in Tuluy, H. (2016). “Regional in 12. Harmon, L.M., et al. (2009), as quoted in Tuluy, a connection to be between some neighboring countries requires 13. Travel - - 72,319,921 99,147,414 44,853,930 South Africa (16,606,348) 641,252,790 204,419,282 Air transport, 1,157,201,360 India (82,751,555) passengers carried : Not only is physical : Not only is physical 2688 2755 3232 3580 24,458 37,192 India (1739) (million ton-km) South Africa (1062) Air transport, freight Air transport, freight Key transport statistics Region World Bank (2016) Non-tariff barriers, however, remain a significant issue issue significant a remain however, barriers, Non-tariff “Soft” infrastructure constraints Latin America & Carib. (developing) South Asia Low & middle income countries Best, Africa Best, Comparator Africa East Asia & Pacific (developing) Sub-Saharan Africa levels in Africa still remain above those in other developing above those in other developing levels in Africa still remain incompatible technical regulations, norms and product stan norms and product incompatible technical regulations, infrastructure in other developing regions of the world, but of the world, but in other developing regions infrastructure Non-tariff barriers include the number and complexity of barriers include the number and complexity of Non-tariff procedures and administrative processes, different and and different administrative processes, and procedures received the same degree of attention as physical stocks attention as physical stocks of the same degree received from policy makers and development finance institutions institutions finance development and makers policy from tariff levels and tariff complexity. Nevertheless, average tariff average tariff Nevertheless, complexity. and tariff levels tariff there are significant constraints in policy, regulations, pro regulations, in policy, significant constraints are there has not the cost and time of transport. Soft infrastructure transport infrastructure less dense and its quality lower than transport infrastructure although, in recent decades, countries have reduced high high have reduced countries decades, in recent although, the same amount of attention. and have not received countries, and there are still many exemptions. are countries, and there cedures, norms, standards and certification that increase and certification that increase norms, standards cedures, dards and certification. These allow discretion on the part of and certification. These allow discretion dards Table 5: Table Source: Not only is physical transport infrastructure less dense and its quality lower dense and its less infrastructure is physical transport Not only but there are of the world, regions other developing in than infrastructure standards norms, procedures, regulations, policy, in constraints significant and time of transport. that increase the cost and certification  JAMES BOND 14 dimensioned atthelevelofnationalratherthanregional of agriculture from subsistence tomarket-based. opment oftransportinfrastructure hasinmostcasesbeen costs evenwithexistingphysicalinfrastructure. empty. Aregional approach totransportregulation andcom totheirhomebaseeign truckersunloadinginportsreturn areas enablesgreater participationinthefruitsofgrowth by agricultural transformation supporting inclusive growth. Rural roads play an essential well. Suchlackofcompetitionisincertaincasesreinforced to exportpointsandeachother. Interconnection ofrural tiveness, transportinfrastructure hasanimportantrole in poor ruralcommunitiesandacceleratesthetransformation part in interconnecting rural communities to urban centers, ridors isprovided intheAnnex.) moment highly underdeveloped. (A list of such transport cor ment of transport corridors into theinterior would significantly requirements, increasing overall port costs. Africa has a large ple, countriescompeteforairtransport,sothathubs petition has the potential of significantly reducing transport region-wide openskiespoliciesandrequirements thatfor number oflandlockedcountries(16intotal)andthe develop underpinned thedevelopmentofanumbersmallports undertaken at national rather than regional levels. For exam Ethiopia. Inter-country competition in maritime transport has Rural roads provide inclusivegrowth andaccelerate improve competitiveness of the continent. These are for the by national legislation and regulations, e.g. the absence of have notbeenabletodevelopotherthanSouthAfricaand National systemsratherthanregional Finally, inadditiontounderpinningtradeandcompeti improve competitivenessofthecontinent. development oftransportcorridorsintotheinteriorwouldsignificantly Africa hasalargenumberoflandlockedcountries(16intotal)andthe : Devel ------100 peoplethecontinentlagsotherlowandmiddleincome developing countries,whichstandat31.1users.Africa’s gone arevolution incommunicationtechnologies.Before the connectivity ispoor. competitiveness. Butintherest ofthecontinent,broadband very significant reduction incostsforusers,provides auseful on new and more appropriate technologies and private oper of this decade—more than twice the global average of six ers in Africa grew by 13 percent a year during the first half thesituation.Thenumberofsubscrib completely overturned operators ratherthanonincumbentstateownedenterprises, ators operatinginacompetitiveenvironment, whichledtoa a mobile subscription in 2010. (Key telecom indicators are significantly less successful. With 13.9 Internet usersper With 13.9Internet significantly lesssuccessful. scriptions inAfricaasthepopulation.Therapidgrowth in segment ofthepopulation.Theintroduction ofnew mobile telephone operators, operating for the most part under a to thatofdevelopedcountries andthisconnectivityhas the firsthalfofdecadewaspartlyduetostartingfrom a technologies, and a new delivery model based on private Information andcommunicationstechnologies public sectorutilitymodel,hadbeenunabletodeployfixed model forotherinfrastructure sectorssuchaselectricpower. provided inTable 6.) percent. Today there are nearlyasmany mobile cellularsub underpinned the island’s strong tradelinks and international Fixed line, mobile and internet connectivity Fixed line,mobileandinternet introduction ofmobiletelephonyAfrica’s incumbentfixedline investment andoperation coupled with competition between best performer, usageclose Mauritius,hasratesofInternet low base,withlessthanaquarterofthepopulationhaving lines (“POTS”:plainoldtelephoneservice)toasufficient The rapid penetration of mobile telephony in Africa, based The rapidpenetrationofmobiletelephonyinAfrica,based Internet penetrationvia fixedbroadband linkshasbeenInternet From averylowbasetwodecadesago,Africahasunder - - - - INFRASTRUCTURE IN AFRICA  15 26 59 17 108 163 The 256 577 16% 1059 Americas 2 9 1 3 8 14 17 Moldova (3) Mauritius (30) 39 64 28 173 780 125 subscriptions 245 399 12% Fixed telephone (per 100 people) Europe 25 49 40 14 70 397 141 CIS 138 15% 9 1 6 1 3 12 <1 8 13 23 89 313 512 920 21% 3604 Asia & Moldova (15) Pacific Mauritius (15) subscriptions (per 100 people) Fixed broadband Fixed broadband 9 3 25 12 33 92 410 110 19% Arab states 75 90 71 78 96 101 111 1 3 19 69 <1 12 629 172 43% Africa Gabon (171) Vietnam (147) subscriptions Mobile cellular (per 100 people) 6 11 21 90 366 636 26% 5400 1265 nations Developing 19 14 23 42 47 17 31 Vietnam (48) Mauritius (57) Internet users 27 41 84 (per 100 people) 345 121 511 11% 1515 1050 nations Developed 10 95 16 32 N/A 711 6915 1147 2315 Global - Region Key global telecom indicators for the world telecommunication service sector, 2014 service sector, indicators for the world telecommunication Key global telecom Key ICT statistics Indicator World Bank (2016) International Telecommunication Union (2014) Union Telecommunication International Fixed broadband Fixed broadband (millions) Per 100 people broadband sub broadband scriptions (millions) Per 100 people Mobile broadband (2013-2014) growth (millions) Per 100 people Fixed telephone lines (millions) Per 100 people Active mobile Mobile cellular subscriptions (developing) South Asia Low & middle income countries Africa Best, Africa Comparators Best, Comparators East Asia & Pacific (developing) Latin America & Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa Table 6: Table Source: Source: electric power. The rapid penetration of mobile telephony in Africa, based on new and and new on based Africa, in telephony mobile of penetration rapid The a in operators operating and private technologies more appropriate to a very which led environment, competitive in costs reduction significant such as sectors for other infrastructure useful model provides a for users, Table 7: Table  JAMES BOND 16 development of other sectors. The most important of these connections, associated with the high cost of Internet usage connections, associatedwiththehighcostofInternet economic actors. as providing marketinformation (e.g.pricesforcacaoon the marketaswell,andcreate opportunitiesforlowincome Source: ularly mobilecommunications,havethepotentialtospur Internet stilllags Internet Mobile telephony:AnAfricansuccessstory ire) orweather-related informationimprove thefunctioningof marketsforfarmersinGhanaandCôted’Ivo international has beenmobilebanking(Box3).However, otherusessuch Box 3: in, theirmobilephoneaccountiscredited. mobile numbertouseinsettlingup; whenadebtpaymentcomes need tofussoverabankaccount. Customersgivedebtorstheir are deducteddirectly from themobilephoneaccount,withno all theyneedisthecreditor’s related phonenumber. Thedebits agency,transfer moneytoaperson,merchant, orgovernment their mobilephoneaccountstopaybillsorbuyproducts. To sa’s successisbasedonitssimplicity. Customers buycredit on (source: GSMAssociation). mobile moneytransactions equals orexceeds60percent ofGDP North Americacombined.InsomemonthsthevalueofKenya’s greater thantheamountofmoneysentviamobileinEurope and Africa’s “mobilemoney”marketexceeded$61billionin2012— ance policiesand collect paymentfrom agencies. government to transfermoneyfrom onepersontoanother, takeoutinsur network. More than60millionAfricansusebasicmobilephones its introduction the servicehasgrown intoa bonafidepayment Africa’s mixed performance with fixed broadband Internet Infrastructure servicesprovided byconnectivity, partic Launched in2007bycarriersSafaricomandVodacom, M-Pe Kenya’s M-Pesa brought banking-by-phone to Africa. Since Bloomberg (2013). (2013). Bloomberg Mobile bankinginKenya—Areal successstory communications, havethepotentialtospurdevelopmentofothersectors. providedbyconnectivity,Infrastructure services particularlymobile - - - - you-go contract. (insurance, microfinance, remittances) tothetraditionalpay-as- companies were abletoaddvariousretail bankingservices minimalbankingregulations intheregion,With Africanmobile tract servedtointroduce themtotheworldofdebitandcredit. the market. For many Kenyans, their first mobile phone con “unbanked.” In Kenya, this represents more than 80 percent of bank accounts, or what the financial services industry calls the signed upforFacebook. haran Africa,more peoplehaveamobilemoneyaccountthanare GSMA reported. Africaistheworld’s largestmarket:InSub-Sa launched intheseemergingeconomiesoverthepastyear, the Africa, theMiddleEastandAsia;41newmobilemoneyoperators such asM-Pesaservemore than81.8millioncustomersin Uganda andMadagascar. Today 150mobilemoneyservices money accountsoutnumberbankinKenya,Tanzania, African decision-makers. (proficiency inEnglishandFrench, andbeingonthesame cial services, tourism and the like, although the continent has cial services,tourismandthelike,althoughcontinenthas a numberofclear-cut advantagesforsuchdevelopments and amissedopportunity. More AfricansaccesstheInternet services suchascallcenters,provision ofback-office finan with customersandsuppliersinatimelyfashion.Improving through smartphonesthanviaafixedbroadband connection. than their peers because of inability to interconnect efficiently time zonesasEurope). Africanfirmsare alsolesscompetitive for thosewithconnections,represent acosttoeconomy more difficult totapintohighlyattractiveopeningsfortradein Because of poor Internet connectivity African countries find it Because ofpoor Internet broadband connectivity would appear to be a high priority for These systemshaveobviousappealforpeoplewithout Mobile phoneshavespread fasterthanbankbranches.Mobile - - - INFRASTRUCTURE IN AFRICA  - - - 17 14 . Washington: World Bank. World . Washington: : In rural areas, reliance on reliance : In rural areas, Africa’s Water and Sanitation Infrastruc Water Africa’s : Traditional pit latrines are by far the most most the by far are latrines pit Traditional : Sanitation Access to improved water and sanitation remains inad Access to improved water and sanitation between them. Only 10 percent of the population uses a of the population uses a between them. Only 10 percent but more than a third of the population—mostly in rural of the population—mostly in rural than a third but more improved source of water. Access to piped water and stand of water. source improved Key issues ture -- Access, Affordability, and Alternatives ture -- Access, Affordability, urban areas, piped water remains the single largest source of source largest single the remains water piped areas, urban decade past the over markedly fell coverage but water, urban posts is very low. Indeed, in many African countries, less countries, less Indeed, in many African posts is very low. in population, and less than 10 percent of Africa’s percent than latrines is no greater Coverage of improved rural areas. people in the world whose water sources remain unimproved, unimproved, remain sources water whose world the in people In urban areas, septic tanks are much more common than than common more much are tanks septic areas, urban In that of septic tanks, despite the significant difference in cost that of septic tanks, despite the significant difference than 1 percent of the rural population receives piped water. In water. piped receives population rural the of 1 percent than either water, the urban populace depends on utility-supplied this piped water supply or standpipes. Utilities are through for water supply in urban areas. the central actors responsible the population enjoys access to safe drinking water, and the access to safe drinking water, the population enjoys 37 percent live in Sub-Saharan Africa. 37 percent with rapid population growth. Coverage of standposts saw with rapid population growth. equate, particularly in rural areas septic tank; coverage in rural areas is practically negligible. is practically negligible. septic tank; coverage in rural areas surface water remains prevalent. Boreholes (which serve (which serve Boreholes prevalent. surface water remains a further 40 percent of the population) are the principal the principal of the population) are a further 40 percent up supply could not keep water piped the extension of as of two-thirds Overall, about areas. in urban decline a similar sanitation Improved open. the in defecates areas—still common sanitation facility in both urban and rural areas, areas, rural and urban both in facility sanitation common gap is widening, as the increase in urban population places a in increase gap is widening, as the Of the 828 million providers. strain on existing service greater (septic tanks and improved latrines) reaches less than 20 less than 20 latrines) reaches (septic tanks and improved 14. Banerjee, S. & Morella, E. (2011). 14. Banerjee, S. & Morella, ------While electricity, transport, and telecommunications infra telecommunications and transport, electricity, While Africa lags the rest of the world in provision of clean of clean of the world in provision Africa lags the rest Adequate sanitation (defined as any private or shared, but or shared, Adequate sanitation (defined as any private by preventing disease and delivering economic and social disease and delivering economic and social by preventing a gain produce would illness in diarrheal reduction A benefits. itation. Although the world overall is on track to meet the itation. Although the world overall is on track to meet the illnesses such as diarrhea are leading causes of infant mortal infant of causes leading diarrhea are such as illnesses beyond health ity and malnutrition, with impacts that extend MDG drinking water target, Africa remains behind. The gap is MDG drinking water target, Africa remains Installed water and sanitation capacity Installed water and not public, facility that guarantees that waste is hygienically that waste is hygienically not public, facility that guarantees most acute in Sub-Saharan Africa, where only 58 percent of only 58 percent most acute in Sub-Saharan Africa, where rhea—and reduces the prevalence of malnutrition. Access of malnutrition. Access the prevalence rhea—and reduces poverty and supporting inclusive growth. Serious waterbornepoverty and supporting inclusive growth. the working population ages 15–59 in Africa. to this standard of sanitation produces direct health gains gains health direct produces sanitation of this standard to tion to public health, particularly in densely populated areas. populated areas. tion to public health, particularly in densely to the productive sectors of the economy through lost work lost work sectors of the economy through to the productive Water and sanitation Water sustainable access to safe drinking water and improved san sustainable access to safe drinking water and improved separated from human contact) also makes a key contribu separated from safe water and sanitation is directly responsible for reducing for reducing responsible safe water and sanitation is directly structure support country competitiveness and trade, and country competitiveness and trade, and support structure a framework for focusing poverty reduction efforts. MDG MDG efforts. a framework for focusing poverty reduction an economic benefit of US$3.1 billion (in 2000 dollars) in in dollars) 2000 (in billion US$3.1 of benefit economic an also (perhaps to a lesser extent) inclusive growth, provision of provision growth, inclusive extent) lesser a to (perhaps also of 99 million days of school and 456 million days of work for opment Goal (MDG) for access to safe water would produce would produce opment Goal (MDG) for access to safe water drinking water and improved sanitation facilities (Table 8). 8). (Table facilities sanitation improved and water drinking diseases—including respiratory ailments, malaria, and diar diseases—including respiratory days and school absenteeism. Meeting the Millennium Devel days and school absenteeism. Meeting the Adequate sanitation reduces the risk of a broad range of of range broad a of risk the reduces sanitation Adequate Africa, through time savings and health benefits. Africa, through While electricity, transport, and telecommunications infrastructure support support infrastructure telecommunications and transport, While electricity, countryextent) to a lesser also (perhaps trade, and and competitiveness responsible is directly water and sanitation of safe growth, provision inclusive growth. and supporting inclusive for reducing poverty 7 calls for reducing by half the number of people without without of people the number half by reducing 7 calls for The international adoption of the MDGs in 2000 created The internationalMDGs in 2000 created adoption of the  JAMES BOND 18 Source: ditures ormaintenance. environment ofhighcosts.Despitethis,Africa’s experience tions andmaintenance(O&M)costs. Infact,Africantariffs are practices opendefecation. utilities are notabletoadequatelyfundeithercapitalexpen utilities settingtariffs atlevelshighenoughtorecoup opera in recovering operatingcostsispositiveoverall,withmany improved latrines, and less than 10percent of the population highest amongthedeveloping regions. Despitethis, African Table 8: countries income Low &middle South Asia (developing) & Caribbean Latin America (developing) & Pacific East Asia Comparators Best, Comparators Best, Africa Africa Africa Sub-Saharan High watertariff Region World Bank (2016) Bank World systems in the past two decades to provide better services for their citizens. for theircitizens. systems inthepasttwodecadestoprovidebetterservices Many Africangovernmentshavereformedtheirwaterandsanitation Key waterandsanitationaccessstatistics Mauritius (100) water source with access) Vietnam (96) Vietnam population Improved s: Africanwaterutilitiesoperateinan (% of 89 92 94 93 87 75 66 Improved water Mauritius (100) source, rural with access) Vietnam (95) Vietnam population (% ofrural 83 91 83 89 81 65 55 Improved water source, urban Nicaragua (99) Egypt, Tunisia, with access) (% ofurban population Niger (100) 86 95 95 97 97 95 89 - - Countries that have pursued institutional reforms have built closing thesectorfundinggap inmanycountries.Utilities sector management havedoneabetterjob ofeliminating that havedecentralizedtheir services oradoptedprivate tial dividendofsuchefforts islarge,becauseaddressing utility faster expansionofhigherqualityservices(Box4).Thepoten more efficient andeffective sectorinstitutionsandachieved past twodecadestoprovide betterservicesfortheircitizens. inefficiencies alonecouldmakeasubstantialcontribution to have reformed theirwaterandsanitationsystemsinthe Water sectorperformance Uzbekistan (100) Seychelles (98) of population with access) facilities (% sanitation Improved 30 61 45 81 75 71 40 rural (%of tation facilities, Uzbekistan (100) Improved sani Seychelles (98) with access) population : Many African governments : ManyAfricangovernments 23 47 35 62 64 64 32 - urban population tation facilities, Uzbekistan (100) Improved sani Seychelles (98) with access) urban (%of 40 76 65 86 85 84 51 - - INFRASTRUCTURE IN AFRICA  - - 19 - - - Infrastructure underpins development of the domes Infrastructure As indicated earlier, while countries in Africa are far from far from are while countries in Africa As indicated earlier, Another innovation in Senegal’s public-private partnership was Another innovation in Senegal’s remark been has efficiency on innovations these of impact The Improved efficiency was related to contract innovations geared related to contract innovations geared was efficiency Improved Future infrastructure requirements and requirements infrastructure Future homogeneous, worldwide analysis shows that Africa’s low low Africa’s that shows analysis worldwide homogeneous, reduce transport costs and provide connectivity between connectivity between transport costs and provide reduce Drivers of physical infrastructure needs financing needs the enabler of regional integration. Low cost infrastruc the enabler of regional key for export competitiveness. They services are ture tic economy and contributes to inclusive growth. It is also also is It growth. inclusive to contributes and economy tic suppliers and their markets, and thus allow for greater suppliers and their markets, and thus allow for greater economic diversification. noncompliance. the private operator to finance part of the net of the responsibility the provided This approach using cash flow. rehabilitation work’s reduce water losses, flexibility to identify and operator with more company. lessening its dependency on the public asset-holding example of private a prominent affermage able, making Senegal’s NRWof level a report can Senegal Today, Africa. in participation These Europe. Western in utilities water best the to comparable the is perhaps efficiency that operational confirm also results and in which a private operator can make the most positive area consistent impact. connections installed) benefiting poor households living in tar connections installed) benefiting poor households geted neighborhoods. incentives to perform efficiently. the operator’s increasing toward of NRW contract included targets for reduction The affermage bill collection, backed by financial penalties for and improved - - - - - Senegal's successful experience with private sector participation experience with private sector Senegal's successful Adapted from Banerjee, S. & Morella, E. (2011) Expansion of access was mainly related to a massive subsi of access was mainly related Expansion The Senegal experience under the affermage is character The Senegal experience under the affermage Water supply and sanitation in Senegal is characterized by supply and sanitation in Senegal is characterized by Water dized connection program sponsored by donors and, in part, to sponsored dized connection program The operators. private the by generated surplus cash-flow the support, implemented with donor social connection program, of all new 129,000 connections (75 percent about provided cubic meters per year, and the number of household connections cubic meters per year, than 638,000. by 165% to more increased in a large increase ized by significant expansion of access, and of reduction a from originated mainly that efficiency operational water (NRW). nonrevenue vided under a public-private partnership that has been operating vided under a public-private partnership that has (SDE), a sub in Senegal since 1996, with Senegalaise des Eaux SDE does not sidiary of Saur International, partner. as the private lease contractown the water system but manages it on a 10-year contract. governmentSenegalese the with affermage an under to 131 million Between 1996 and 2014, water sales doubled, a relatively high level of access compared to the average of of to the average high level of access compared a relatively and sanitation has been pro supply Sub-Saharan Africa. Water Box 4: had two major thrusts: increasing private participation and participation and private two major thrusts: increasing had be explained for many other reasons. The reform agenda has agenda reform The reasons. other many for explained be being particularly noteworthy. improving governance from within. Private sector participa sector Private within. governance from improving inefficiencies and other hidden costs than those that have and other hidden costs than those that have inefficiencies not. Unbundling of services can also be beneficial, but not. Unbundling of services can also be beneficial, but in Africa and is exclusively concentrated in unbundling is rare middle income countries, whose superior performance can tion has helped to improve utility performance, with Senegal tion has helped to improve Source: Infrastructure underpins development of the domestic economy and economy and domestic of the development underpins Infrastructure growth. to inclusive contributes  JAMES BOND 20 This isareflection oftheprioritygiventonewinvestment 15. Infrastructure ConsortiumforAfricaSecretariat: ICAReport2014.African Current infrastructure financing GDP andpopulationgrowth overtheperiod.Fulfillingthese GDP per capita income levels. Estimating physical infra ($22.4 billion,or30percent). Water andsanitationattracted cent). The bulk of private sector financing was for mobile financialinstitutions(IFIs) cent); $17.9billionbyinternational over operations,rehabilitation andmaintenance.Itwouldbe even aftertakingaccountofitsphysicalendowment,islow. and only $2.9 billion from the private sector (under 4per lending (24 percent); $9.1 and government-to-government an error tofocusexclusively onrequirements fornewinvest significant financing from avarietyof sources. structure needswilldependtoalargeextentonexpected was provided (46per byAfricannationalgovernments telecommunications networks. to have reached $74.5 billion. to O&M. Financing forinfrastructure–Needsandsources ment withoutalsoconsideringtheneedforgreater attention requirements fornewphysicalinfrastructure willrequire very $9.7 billion(13percent) andICT$2.3billion(3percent). $2.9 ing ($34.3 billion or 46 percent), followed by electric power infrastructure endowmentisaboveallareflection ofitslow billion (32 percent), followed by Southern Africancountriesbillion (32percent), followedbySouthern billion wasspentonmulti-sectorprojects (4percent). billion intheformofsubnationalfinancing(12percent); Development Bank, Abidjan. Transport wasthesectorthatattractedmostfinanc In 2014,totalfundingforinfrastructure isestimated However, thequalityofAfrica’s infrastructure services, North Africareceived themostsignificant amount:$23.4 sector sources. of financingofferedbytraditionalandnon-traditionalpartnersprivate and 2012...Themoststrikingfeatureofthissurgeisthechangingshare Financing forinfrastructure inSub-Saharan Africa tripledbetween2004 15 Of this total, $34.5 billion - - - - - There isawidevariationacross thecontinentofshare of GDP devotedto infrastructure financing,withsome countries Chinese investmentsare nowexpandingbeyondthecoun five largeeconomies—SouthAfrica,Nigeria,Ghana,Kenya ($18.0 billion,or24.2percent). Therest ($31.4billion)was can DevelopmentBank-AfDB),andChinabecameamajor expertise—such ashydropower—and thosethatare notas cially energy, ishighlyconcentratedinafewcountries.Official growth financingsources across since2009. allexternal financingfor2009-2012areof external concentratedinthe amenable to the private sector—such as transport (especially amenable totheprivatesector—suchastransport(especially and is reaching sectors in which it has particular technical and Ethiopia. The electricity sector has had the fastest shared amongtheotherregions. sector budgetsare criticalastheyestablishthestrategic the changingshare offinancingoffered bytraditionaland these publicexpenditures withabout$29billion(2012), try’s earlierfocusonfinancingfor resource-rich economies, framework within which support through external financingframework withinwhichsupportthrough external IFIs increased (especiallyfrom theWorld BankandtheAfri road andrail). nent isestimatedat$74.5billion, excludingmaintenance. non-traditional partnersandprivatesectorsources. Kenya, thenextcountry, allocatingabout$3billion. Excluding telecom, private finance for other sectors, espe Future infrastructure financing needs is coordinated. Inabsoluteterms,SouthAfricadominates ing forinfrastructure asinotherregions oftheworld.Public bilateral source. Themoststrikingfeature ofthissurgeis between 2004and2012.Duringthisperiod,financingfrom haran Africancountries.Inabsoluteterms,thetoprecipients This fundingincrease benefitted awiderangeofsub-Sa Current spendingoninfrastructure intheAfricanconti Financing forinfrastructure inSub-Saharan Africa tripled Public sectorbudgetsare theprimarysource offund ------INFRASTRUCTURE IN AFRICA  ------21 In Africa 20 : Elasticities of infrastructure stocks stocks : Elasticities of infrastructure Under the elasticity method, spending outlays on infra Under the elasticity method, spending outlays Elasticity estimates lars) for the African continent, somewhat higher than, but still inventory model for 12 countries for which comprehensive historical spending inventory model for 12 countries for which comprehensive ical growth rates of 6 percent (real) per year, would imply a per year, (real) rates of 6 percent ical growth 20. Estimate of the worldwide value of infrastructure stock using a perpetual 20. Estimate of the worldwide value of infrastructure plus replacement costs of $25 billion. Together these provide provide these Together billion. $25 of costs replacement plus replacement costs. replacement 0.2 to 1.2), but in aggregate across all infrastructure sec all infrastructure across 0.2 to 1.2), but in aggregate for infrastructure that has been retired over the year. Histori over the year. that has been retired for infrastructure the overall infrastructure endowment is lower than in these endowment is lower than in these the overall infrastructure terms, infrastruc in real performance of 6 percent to recent at the same rate. would be expected to grow stocks ture tors, elasticities are close to 1. Thus, at a first approximation, close to 1. Thus, at a first approximation, tors, elasticities are with respect to GDP vary significantly between sectors (from (from sectors between significantly vary GDP to respect with data are available across asset classes. (McKinsey (2013). Infrastructure pro classes. (McKinsey (2013). Infrastructure asset available across data are ductivity: How to save $1 trillion a year.) stock of infrastructure. Worldwide, the value of infrastructure of infrastructure the value Worldwide, stock of infrastructure. economies is income middle or developed most in stock in infrastructure be estimated as the increase can structure cost one year to the next, plus the replacement stocks from a whole has economic growth rates going forward equivalent forward going rates growth economic has whole a spend of $100 billion (2015 dol a total annual infrastructure asset terms (i.e. in dollars) increase more or less in line with or less in line with more asset terms (i.e. in dollars) increase consistent with estimates for 2014. This spending would of would spending This 2014. for estimates with consistent estimated to average around 70 percent of GDP. 70 percent estimated to average around of of 50 percent countries and is estimated to be of the order is on the order replacement on infrastructure cal expenditure of the existing stock. Applying this method to of 2 percent stocks of $1.25 trillion, and with histor existing infrastructure stocks of $75 billion, of infrastructure annual increase current overall physical infrastructure stocks measured in financial financial in measured stocks infrastructure physical overall 2009 figure. Again, it is assumed that these figures include figures is assumed that these Again, it 2009 figure. GDP growth. It is difficult to estimate Africa’s existing physical to estimate Africa’s is difficult It GDP growth. $1.25 trillion. Thus, if the African continent as or around GDP, ------. Wash Infrastruc which esti 17 19 inancing African Infra

16 Metropolitan Infrastructure and Infrastructure Metropolitan Washington: World Bank. World Washington: : Applying the widely accepted : Applying the widely accepted : In 2009 the World Bank issued a Bank issued a : In 2009 the World

Africa’s Infrastructure: A Time for Transition Infrastructure: A Time Africa’s 18 . It is not easy to estimate future infrastructure financing financing infrastructure It is not easy to estimate future Benchmark estimates External estimates ington: World Bank. ington: World Infrastructure productivity: How to save $1 trillion a year.) productivity: Infrastructure infrastructure needs of Sub-Saharan Africa alone. Scaling needs of Sub-Saharan Africa alone. Scaling infrastructure Capital Finance up spending for the continent as a whole based on GDP based on GDP up spending for the continent as a whole needs, and there is a difference of thinking among economists is a difference needs, and there $125 billion per year. It is assumed that these figures include figures It is assumed that these $125 billion per year. replacement costs, i.e. spending to replace infrastructure infrastructure replace to spending i.e. costs, replacement estimated GDP of $2.5 trillion (2015 dollars) would lead rent mated that $93 billion per year would be needed to meet the mated that $93 billion per year would be practitioners advocate a benchmark of 5-6 percent of GDP of percent 5-6 of benchmark a advocate practitioners 5-6 percent benchmark across the continent to Africa’s cur Africa’s continent to the across benchmark 5-6 percent for infrastructure financing to sustain growth. for infrastructure to infrastructure investment figures of around $125 billion $125 billion around of investment figures infrastructure to Bank’s World with line in broadly year, per billion $150 to that has been retired over the year. that has been retired ture economists, on the other hand, estimate infrastructure on the other hand, estimate infrastructure economists, ture with respect and the elasticity of stocks’ growth stocks ture to national income. to reflect any direct relationship of budgetary allocation with relationship any direct to reflect while at the bottom end, Nigeria invests under 3 percent and Nigeria invests under 3 percent while at the bottom end, structure has averaged about 3.8 percent of global GDP. (McKinsey (2013). has averaged about 3.8 percentstructure of global GDP. structure – Can the World Deliver? structure – Can the World South Sudan less than 1 percent. The results do not appear do The results percent. 1 less than Sudan South shares, the spending requirement would be of the order of of order would be of the requirement the spending shares, spending based on growth in countries’ physical infrastruc spending based on growth about how best to undertake this exercise. Development Development exercise. this undertake to best how about comprehensive report on African Infrastructure, report comprehensive either infrastructure capacity or needs. either infrastructure (e.g. Lesotho, Cape Verde, Angola) investing over 8 percent, investing over 8 percent, Angola) Verde, (e.g. Lesotho, Cape on roads, rail, ports, airports, power, water, and telecommunications infra and telecommunications water, rail, ports, airports, power, on roads, count for more than 90 percent of global GDP indicates that global investment than 90 percent count for more 18. Ingram, G., Liu, Z., & Brandt, K. (2013). K. Brandt, & Z., Liu, G., Ingram, 18. Bank. (2009). 19. World 16. Gutman, J., Sy, A., & Chattopahyay, S. (2009). F A., & Chattopahyay, 16. Gutman, J., Sy, spending for the 84 countries that ac historical infrastructure 17. Worldwide, If the African continent as a whole has economic growth rates going forward growth rates has economic as a whole continent If the African infrastructure in real terms, of 6 percent performance to recent equivalent rate. at the same to grow would be expected stocks  JAMES BOND 22 African continentwere toseek catchupwiththesecoun global economic slowdown and the collapse in commod observed 1.0,i.e.infrastructure spendinggrowth needsto elasticities would need to be at 1.3 rather than the historically on historicallyobservedelasticities,wouldleaveAfrican course riseovertimewithcontinuingeconomicgrowth and and $245billionin2025(2015dollars). slowdown in Africa in the past two years as a result of the spending wouldneedtorise$168billionperyearin2020 would need to be 7.8 percent per year. Under this scenario tries over the two decades until 2035, infrastructure spending percent ofGDP. Underanaspirationalscenariowhere the regions ratherthantrending toward ratiosobservedinmiddle meaning thatAfricawouldbelessendowedthanother *Investment figures in 2015 dollars. 2015 in figures *Investment ity prices. Growth rates for 2016 and 2017 are slated at 3 is 6 percent (real) per year, growth in infrastructure spending income anddevelopedcountries which are equivalentto 70 infrastructure endowmentsat50 percent ofGDPindefinitely, increasing infrastructure stocks. be 30percent higherthan GDP growth. ThusifGDPgrowth Table 9: 2025 2020 2015 Current estimates of GDP growth point to asignificant Estimates offuturespending rigid state-owned enterprise (SOE) utility models to new institutional setups. sectors arecreditworthy, whichinmostcasesinvolvesmovingawayfromthe Private financingwillnotflowregularlyforinfrastructureuntilthedifferent Projected infrastructure spending Constant RatioInfrastructure/GDP =0.5 Elasticity 1 1 1 Stability Scenario : The above estimate, based : Theaboveestimate,based Africa GDPGrowth =6%/yr(real) ($billion/yr)* $171 billion $136 billion $100 billion Spending - - financially viable,whichmeansthatusershavetopaythefull 2020 and$95billionin2025underthestabilityscenario (2015 dollars). (SOE) utility models to new institutional setups. In particular, growth remains at3.5percent peryearinreal terms,infra coms, Africadoesnotcallonsignificantprivatefinancingfor anteed borrowings) orofficial developmentassistance. structure spendingwouldbeoftheorder of$80billionin spending, moderateoverthenextfewyears.Iflongerterm sovereign financing(from fiscal revenueorgovernment-guar the different sectorsare creditworthy, whichinmostcases future African growth rates, and with them, infrastructure percent and3.8percent, respectively. private sectormodelshavebeensuccessfullyintroduced in 21. IMF(April2016). Private financingwillnotflow regularlyforinfrastructure until Key findingsforinfrastructure financing in order toattractprivatefunding,utilitieshavebecome involves movingawayfrom therigidstate-ownedenterprise infrastructure, socurrent financingismostlyintheformof Washington DC. long runmarginalcostfortheinfrastructure service.While Inadequate privatefinancing Elasticity Trending toInfrastructure/GDP =0.7 World Economic Outlook –Too Slowfor Too Long 1.3 1.3 1.3 Catch-up Scenario : With theexceptionoftele : With 21 ($billion/yr)* $245 billion $168 billion $100 billion Itispossiblethat Spending . IMF, - - - INFRASTRUCTURE IN AFRICA  - - - - - 23 : As countries increasingly : As countries increasingly : The electric power sector has the most poten most the has sector power electric : The privately owned and financed off-grid and mini-grid mini-grid and off-grid financed and owned privately Power tial for tapping new technologies, notably solar and other renewables, in a delivery model that involves in a delivery model that involves other renewables, • Depending on the infrastructure sector concerned, Afri Depending on the infrastructure Sub-sovereign financing As this paper indicates, Africa needs more infrastructure infrastructure As this paper indicates, Africa needs more local governments,responsi they have also devolved fiscal based on multiple privately owned and financed operators based on multiple privately owned and financed operators bility. African efforts at functional devolution of responsibility at functional devolution of responsibility African efforts bility. ically, the following merit consideration: ically, investment, and it needs better operation and maintenance operation and maintenance investment, and it needs better Lagos and Kinshasa will reach 18.9 million and 14.5 million, and 18.9 million will reach and Kinshasa Lagos respectively (they are already among the 30 most populous among the 30 most already (they are respectively New models for the delivery services of infrastructure United Nations estimates that by 2025, the population in that by 2025, the population in United Nations estimates for services and fiscal decentralization seriously lag behind seriously lag behind for services and fiscal decentralization technology allows, this model should be considered. Specif be considered. should model allows, this technology the level of devolution that can be achieved. the level of devolution that can be achieved. sector following the introduction of mobile phones. A model A phones. mobile of introduction the following sector cases not applicable (e.g. for road infrastructure). But where But where infrastructure). cases not applicable (e.g. for road other regions of the world. Within of other regions Sub-Saharan Africa, South handled by local governments,expenditures which illustrates ser stocks to achieve better infrastructure of its infrastructure these stocks for its economies and its population. vices from the can governments away from need to consider moving telecom did with the just as they existing SOE utility model, cities in the world). (or jointly owned by the public and private sector) is in many decision makers need to focus on three sets of actions. decision makers need to focus on three decentralize the responsibility for infrastructure services to to services infrastructure for responsibility the decentralize Action agenda Africa is the most decentralized, with 60 percent of public of public percent Africa is the most decentralized, with 60 These dual but compatible objectives suggest that African that African These dual but compatible objectives suggest - - - - - : Compared to to : Compared : In addition to raising tax : In addition to raising tax : Despite the progress in raising fiscal rev in raising fiscal : Despite the progress Need for urban infrastructure financing International debt markets Fiscal revenue ly-run electric power system in Cote d’Ivoire, this approach this approach system in Cote d’Ivoire, ly-run electric power in urban areas. In many cities, the challenge of urbanization in urban areas. than a million inhabitants. The in 36 cities, each with more institutions such as pension funds and insurance companies. insurance and funds pension as such institutions issuing $15 billion worth of international sovereign bonds bonds issuing $15 billion worth of international sovereign However, that is changing rapidly, with some estimates estimates some with rapidly, changing that is However, undertaken with prudence. A better debt strategy would be nent’s decision makers. nent’s public debt stocks and can introduce currency risk into future risk into future currency public debt stocks and can introduce creation the enabling by markets, debt domestic to ments revenues, Sub-Saharan African countries have increasingly Sub-Saharan African countries have increasingly revenues, third of urban residents in Sub-Saharan Africa are located located are Africa in Sub-Saharan residents urban of third to mobilize long term domestic savings through improve to mobilize long term domestic savings through to the resource-rich countries, and tax revenue to GDP varies countries, and tax revenue to the resource-rich Congo. the of Republic Democratic the in percent 2.8 to showing that by 2035, 50 percent of the population will live showing that by 2035, 50 percent since 2006. While this is a worthwhile strategy it increases since 2006. While this is a worthwhile strategy it increases sanitation to a private enterprise in Senegal, and a private sanitation to a private and the need for critical infrastructure is already evident. One- evident. is already critical infrastructure and the need for accessed internationalaccessed countries 13 with markets capital across the board—ranging from 25 percent in South Africa 25 percent from board—ranging the across a number of countries, most notably delegation of water and a number of countries, of long term instruments attractive to contractual savings of long term instruments attractive to contractual savings rural. Sub-Saharan Africa is still predominantly other regions, coupon payment requirements. It should, therefore, only be It should, therefore, coupon payment requirements. commodity prices. enues, Sub-Saharan African countries need to raise more to raise more enues, Sub-Saharan African countries need sub-Saharan across increased enues to GDP have recently domestic finance, both tax revenue and on the domestic revenue and on the domestic domestic finance, both tax tax rev gap. While infrastructure meet the markets, to debt does not seem to attract much enthusiasm from the conti from does not seem to attract much enthusiasm Africa to over 20 percent, this increase is mainly attributable is mainly attributable this increase Africa to over 20 percent, Africa needs more infrastructure investment, and it needs better operation operation it needs better investment, and more infrastructure Africa needs infrastructureachieve better stocks to its infrastructure of and maintenance servicesits population. and for its economies these stocks from Taxation rates are moreover falling again with the decline in moreover rates are Taxation  JAMES BOND 24 case ofconcessions andaffermages, specific maintenance change willbegintoaddress thepoor operationandmain tenance records ofAfricaninfrastructure operators.Inthe Improved management ofassets New institutionalsetups • • • Transport quite well, although better attention could bepaid developing transportcorridorswithsignificantpri dismantle thedefactoandjure monopoliesthat cost recovery. Other countries need to consider such extent privatelyfinanced)operationalmodels,nota est successinmovingtoprivatelyrun(andsome competition andopenmarkets. tomoveawayfromgovernments current monopoly vate sector investment (ports, rail, toll-roads) and needtoseekreal physicalintegrationbyernments currently favortheincumbentutility, andtheymust be aging competition. This needs a policy decision from systems. However, must accept to governments situations, in many cases run by the rump of the Water andsanitation with bondedtransportandstoragefacilitiessuchas willing toforego investments in large centralized fossil trunk-line fiber-optic cablesandgateways,encour to interconnectivity of competing systems. The former fixed line telecoms operator and encourage fuel-powered generatingplants. ICT Internet accessbyintroducingInternet openaccessto most urgent need is to strengthen fixed broadband planning and investment program. Notably, gov national systems toward a regional (multi-national) institutional setups. inland ports. bly concessionsandaffermages, becauseofrobust flows ofprivatefinance,overandabovethetelecomssector. The mostglaringareaforprogressininfrastructurefinancingistoincrease : Mobiletelephonyfunctionsforthemostpart : Thissectorneedstomoveawayfrom : Asoutlinedabove,institutional : Thissectorhashadthegreat ------There havebeeninteresting experiencesforpaymentoftariffs financial hardship andinabilitytofullyfinanceoperation of privatelyownedassets(telecoms),investorshaveaneco other sectorssuchaselectricity. cal infrastructure stock. value ofinfrastructure servicesforusers from agivenphysi costs. Maintenance,asitcanbedeferred (unlikedirect costs approaches suchashard budgetconstraintsandfixedline- needtoconsider and maintenance.Africangovernments agencies haveapoortrackrecord forpayinginfrastructure appliances becomemore worthwhile.Thisincreases the setups, there needstobe afocusonprinciplestoensure such assalaries),isgenerallythefirstcostitemtobecut, which leadstodeteriorationofthephysicalasset. tariff mechanismsoftenset pricesforconsumersbelowlong that operationandmaintenanceare fullyfunded. Current tariffs (electricity and water in particular) across the conti Innovative financing mentation, withpenaltiesincaseofnon-respect. Inthecase requirements canbeincludedinrelevant contractualdocu private finance, over and above the telecoms sector. The progress ininfrastructure financingistoincrease flows of mobile telecomscards, thatcouldbefurtherexplored in motion ofend-userefficiency. Forexample,whenelectricity run marginalcosts,withtheresult thattheinvestor/operator nomic incentivetooperateandmaintaintheirassetcorrectly. nent. Thisforegone revenue contributestosectoroperators’ items in national budgets to cover payment for these services. items innationalbudgetstocoverpaymentfortheseservices. is more expensive,people uselessofitandenergyefficient is notfinanciallyviableandtherefore unabletocoverits by government agencies, e.g. throughby government the use of pre-paid Another advantageoftariffs thatcovercostsistheirpro Cost-reflective tariffs Payment bygovernment Need forprivatefinancing : Inadditiontonewinstitutional : Governments and government andgovernment : Governments : Themostglaringarea for - - - - - INFRASTRUCTURE IN AFRICA  25 - - - - - However, there is a difference between financing received financing between difference a is there However, In the realm of infrastructure financing in Africa, it is nec of infrastructure In the realm lenders, because the latter have the advantage of not incur lenders, because the latter have the advantage bonds. Also, increased private ownership of infrastructure private ownership of infrastructure bonds. Also, increased infrastructure is only $2.9 billion (4 percent of total financing). is only $2.9 billion (4 percent infrastructure investments through, for example, issuance of infrastructure for example, issuance of infrastructure investments through, ity to attract private financing. Even if this figure is multiplied by a factor of five, it would is multiplied by a factor of five, it would Even if this figure markets to increase their tenor and ability to consider these markets to increase ring currency and devaluation risk on future financial flows. flows. financial and devaluation risk on future ring currency measures outlined above (new delivery models and improved improved and models (new delivery above outlined measures foreseeable future. foreseeable from the offshore private sector, and domestic investors and private sector, offshore the from to continue to focus on good fiscal management and on to continue to focus on good fiscal management and on tive tariffs and payment by government for the services it tive tariffs still be far less than fiscal flows or external flows from gov still be far less than fiscal flows or external flows adequate coordination of external adequate coordination public financiers for the assets will increase the ability for equities markets to channel assets will increase ernment. governments African that means This need will essary to be realistic. Current private financing of African African of financing private Current realistic. be to essary channel national savings to long term infrastructure projects. projects. channel national savings to long term infrastructure operations and maintenance), associated with cost-reflec with associated maintenance), and operations the financial improving consumes, will go some way toward and abil viability of the sector and hence its creditworthiness financing to infrastructure. develop domestic financial markets and instruments to and instruments to develop domestic financial markets The priority for African governments must be to develop domestic domestic be to develop must governments for African The priority to long term national savings to channel instruments markets and financial projects. infrastructure Therefore, the priority for African governments African for to priority be the must Therefore, development of domestic debt This will involve, in particular,

Annex

Table A1: Key access corridors in Africa Corridor Distances Remarks Dakar – Mali 1,250 km Rail Abidjan – Burkina Faso – Mali Multimodal options to Ouagadougou, then 1,200 km road Tema/Takoradi – Burkina Faso – Mali 1,100 km to Ouagadougou Road Lome – Burkina Faso – Niger/Mali 200 km Road Cotonou – Niger – Burkina Faso – Mali 1,000 km up to Niger Multimodal options Lagos – Niger 1,500 km Road Douala Corridor Multimodal Douala – Central African Republic 1,800 km (mainly road, some rail) -- Chad Pointe Noire – Central African Republic 1,800 km Rail/river – Chad Lobito Corridor Multimodal Lobito (Angola) – Lubumbashi (DRC) – 1,345 km Not currently used Lusaka (Zambia) Trans – Caprivi 2,100 km to Lusaka Road Walvis Bay – Zambia-DRC Trans – Kalahari Walvis Bay – 1,800 km Road Botswana – South Africa North – South Corridor 2,500 km to DRC Multimodal options available Durban – Zimbabwe – Zambia –DRC Maputo – South Africa 600 km Multimodal options available Beira – Zimbabwe – Zambia – DRC Multimodal options available Central Corridor 1,400 km to Kigali Multimodal options available Mombasa (Dar es Salaam) – Rwanda – 1,600 km to Kampala (Road, rail, inland waterways) Burundi –Uganda – DRC Northern Corridor 1,200 km to Kampala Multimodal options available Mombasa – Rwanda – DRC 2,000 km to Bujumbura Berbera – Ethiopia 850 km Road Djibouti – Ethiopia 900 km Multimodal options available Assab – Ethiopia 900 km Not currently used Massawa – Ethiopia Not currently used Lagos – Niger – Mali and Lagos – Chad 8,000 km as part of the CLRT Multimodal options available

27  JAMES BOND 28 Table A2: Swaziland Sudan South Sudan South Africa Somalia Sierra Leone Seychelles Senegal Sao Tome andPrincipe Rwanda Nigeria Niger Namibia Mozambique Morocco Mauritius Mauritania Mali Malawi Madagascar Libya Liberia Lesotho Kenya Guinea-Bissau Guinea Ghana Gambia, The Gabon Ethiopia Eritrea Equatorial Guinea Egypt, ArabRep. Djibouti Cote d’Ivoire Congo, Rep. Congo, Dem.Rep. Comoros Chad Central AfricanRepublic Cameroon Cabo Verde Burundi Burkina Faso Botswana Benin Angola Algeria Country Transport statistics,bycountry Air transport,freight (million ton-km) 1062.3 188.3 280.7 950.9 401.0 <0.1 <0.1 11.9 32.3 20.7 43.4 31.1 78.4 14.0 1.4 3.9 0.0 1.1 3.4 5.7 0.0 3.7 1.3 2.2 0.3 4.7 2.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 0.1 0.5 ...... 0 .. passengers carried Air transport, 46908245.0 16606348.3 9007209.1 1335850.4 4289094.0 6482274.6 1354562.0 2677312.3 4792266.9 6180235.6 303013.7 237115.0 553946.1 560301.2 275762.2 590310.2 117414.6 205992.7 501855.4 251649.2 404977.3 131966.3 626925.1 522216.0 751528.3 271209.6 520421.0 407542.8 151777.6 28330.0 60259.5 87932.0 5854.9 ...... carrier departures worldwide Air transport,registered 195713.8 14143.5 90784.4 10370.1 12849.0 13817.6 59588.2 14521.5 12097.1 66079.8 20521.3 70509.3 12738.5 10385.0 32722.8 96779.6 16736.0 69396.5 4034.4 5633.4 7728.6 3669.8 8298.1 6848.5 3446.7 4040.7 1040.0 9197.0 4040.1 1842.7 646.1 1648 74.8 ...... Container porttraffic (TEU: 20 footequivalentunits) 8810989.9 773141.28 1000000.0 4831462.0 1062388.6 131180.45 3070000.0 1010000.0 783101.9 436716.7 367331.8 408146.5 360522.0 565810.6 450008.2 328200.1 653635.0 181808.0 456773.4 833771.3 197997.6 84665.4 ...... ANNEX  29 ...... 0.4 1.2 2.5 7.6 1.9 1.0 0.8 7.8 1.3 1.8 8.3 0.7 0.2 4.6 0.2 3.1 0.0 11.6 <0.1 244887.9 101392.2 638023.4 600985.8 288904.9 704933.5 2597395.1 9531076.4 1655365.1 28036660.0 39156198.4 20900073.3 11655635.4 240855145.8 342476160.5 (per 100 people) Fixed telephone subscriptions - 0 .. .. 0.6 2.3 3.7 0.5 0.5 4.0 0.4 0.4 1.6 3.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.07 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 8528.9 6846.1 7685.8 12723.8 29358.4 48394.9 23149.0 26032.3 10522.3 45132.0 25222.9 58589.5 10811.6 24214.1 17389.7 144630.3 704647.8 912858.0 720050.3 1003384.4 5337532.2 2206992.5 10706312.7 tions (per 100 people) Fixed broadband subscrip Fixed broadband - .. 6.4 32.4 66.4 31.6 92.9 63.5 99.6 71.7 30.5 75.7 24.5 39.7 50.9 53.5 8591.6 108.1 106.2 114.3 167.3 121.8 706353.9 779259.2 163830.3 301265.1 239130.5 712285.9 1310119.9 1272290.3 5559595.5 2545935.0 1474326.5 4608369.0 3116217.4 1089788.3 24703605.2 44853930.5 72319920.6 99147414.2 82751554.9 641252789.7 204419282.1 1157201360.0 tions (per 100 people) Mobile cellular subscrip .. 0.8 0.9 0.2 1.4 0.6 4.0 0.7 0.0 2.3 34.0 14.5 32.7 587.5 260.3 226.8 110.2 1739.0 2755.2 3231.9 3579.7 2688.0 24458.4 37192.2 9.8 4.0 2.5 6.7 3.0 7.1 1.0 2.9 5.3 9.4 1.4 11.0 14.6 10.7 31.7 18.9 18.1 18.5 40.3 100 people) Internet users (per Transport statistics, by country (cont.) statistics, by country Transport ICT statistics, by country Country World Bank (2016) Egypt, Arab Rep. Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Chad Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Rep. Cote d’Ivoire Djibouti Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cabo Verde Cameroon Central African Republic Algeria Angola Benin Nicaragua Pakistan Uzbekistan Vietnam Honduras India Kyrgyz Republic Laos Moldova Myanmar LAC (developing) South Asia Low & middle income countries Bangladesh Cambodia Zambia Zimbabwe Sub-Saharan Africa Africa East Asia & Pacific (developing) Tanzania Togo Tunisia Uganda Table A2: A2: Table Table A3: Table Source:  JAMES BOND 30 Table A3: Swaziland Sudan South Sudan South Africa Somalia Sierra Leone Seychelles Senegal Sao Tome andPrincipe Rwanda Nigeria Niger Namibia Mozambique Morocco Mauritius Mauritania Mali Malawi Madagascar Libya Liberia Lesotho Kenya Guinea-Bissau Guinea Ghana Gambia, The Gabon Myanmar Moldova Lao PDR Kyrgyz Republic India Honduras Cambodia Bangladesh Low &middleincomecountries South Asia LAC (developing) East Asia&Pacific(developing) Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Zimbabwe Zambia Uganda Tunisia Togo Tanzania ICT statistics,bycountry(cont.) 15.6 13.8 19.2 21.3 19.9 17.3 17.7 46.2 27.1 24.6 15.9 49.0 54.3 17.7 24.4 10.6 42.7 14.8 56.8 41.4 10.7 17.8 11.0 43.4 19.0 46.6 14.3 28.3 18.0 19.1 31.1 16.6 47.5 42.1 5.7 4.9 1.6 2.1 1.9 5.9 7.0 5.8 3.7 5.4 3.3 1.7 2.1 9.0 9.6 77.84 113.8 131.7 132.2 149.1 161.1 114.8 119.6 171.4 108.0 134.5 132.7 111.3 100.8 128.5 149.2 162.2 64.94 44.4 69.8 94.2 33.5 41.2 73.3 85.0 73.8 63.5 72.1 54.0 67.0 74.5 93.5 80.0 90.0 75.4 78.3 71.0 80.8 67.3 52.4 64.6 62.8 72.3 72.2 24.5 50.9 76.7 98.8 64.0 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 14.6 14.7 11.9 0.05 12.7 0.71 1.8 0.1 3.0 0.2 0.1 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 4.2 1.2 1.4 0.4 1.9 6.3 1.3 9.2 1.2 0.4 1.0 0.1 0.3 4.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 3.2 0.6 0.6 0 .. 30.0 1.29 11.3 35.2 13.4 16.9 14.5 1.08 22.7 3.44 0.1 0.6 7.8 0.3 7.4 1.0 0.4 1.1 0.2 2.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.0 2.9 1.1 1.0 7.9 2.1 6.4 2.3 0.6 9.2 2.2 3.3 1.1 2.3 0.8 0.8 8.5 0.8 0.3 3.5 0.0 6.9 0.5 0.3 2.1 0.4 ANNEX  31 - ...... 49.8 62.3 57.5 875.2 444.4 155.8 104.7 222.1 239.7 348.2 156.8 219.5 260.8 1590.6 1700.4 1094.5 4386.5 2075.0 1236.1 1514.0 5.5 2.6 8.5 6.0 7.6 tion (kWh per capita) Electric power consump 54.5 94.1 61.8 83.6 61.5 68.3 18.3 85.1 36.3 58.9 88.1 65.2 93.1 98.1 41.0 84.9 74.2 58.2 46.9 18.9 60.7 37.1 50.4 46.0 83.0 68.0 71.0 48.5 58.5 84.3 87.5 14.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2.5 1.1 1.9 6.5 3.0 (% of urban population) Access to electricity, urban Access to electricity, 5.4 5.2 7.7 3.0 5.7 7.5 2.9 6.7 1.2 8.1 2.0 4.3 6.0 1.4 1.2 8.1 17.3 34.4 46.9 61.4 11.7 29.0 12.9 43.0 11.9 44.9 25.6 40.9 21.4 10.1 11.9 14.5 23.9 46.7 18.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 73.3 78.4 96.5 147.1 114.6 of rural population) Access to electricity, rural (% Access to electricity, 9.8 9.8 6.5 6.4 13.8 43.5 48.3 22.5 17.6 60.5 15.4 25.6 21.8 20.2 47.3 14.4 55.6 18.0 66.0 36.1 26.6 89.3 34.5 64.1 26.2 60.6 23.0 20.6 53.2 13.1 70.6 53.7 10.8 69.3 16.4 41.6 55.8 53.3 37.0 38.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 (% of population) Access to electricity Electricity statistics, by country Electricity statistics, ICT statistics, by country (cont.) by country ICT statistics, Country World Bank (2016) Niger Nigeria Rwanda and Principe Sao Tome Mali Mauritania Mauritius Morocco Mozambique Namibia Kenya Lesotho Liberia Libya Madagascar Malawi Ethiopia Gabon Gambia, The Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Congo, Rep. Cote d’Ivoire Djibouti Egypt, Arab Rep. Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Cabo Verde Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. Algeria Angola Benin Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Comparator Average Nicaragua Pakistan Uzbekistan Vietnam Source: Table A4: Table Table A3: A3: Table  JAMES BOND 32 Table A5: Source: Table A4: Cent. Afr. Rep. Cameroon Cabo Verde Burundi Burkina Faso Botswana Benin Angola Algeria Comparator Average Vietnam Uzbekistan Pakistan Nicaragua Myanmar Moldova Lao PDR Kyrgyz Republic India Honduras Cambodia Bangladesh Low &middleincomecountries South Asia LAC (developing) East Asia&Pacific(developing) Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Zimbabwe Zambia Uganda Tunisia Togo Tanzania Swaziland Sudan South Sudan South Africa Somalia Sierra Leone Seychelles Senegal World Bank (2016) Bank World Country Water andsanitationstatistics,bycountry Electricity statistics,bycountry(cont.) Improved water source (%of with access) population 68.4 75.4 91.7 75.8 82.1 96.2 77.8 48.6 84.0 of ruralpopulation 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 source, rural(% Improved water 78.7 99.0 93.6 77.9 52.4 70.0 78.7 82.2 31.1 59.6 81.0 78.0 95.8 95.7 43.8 35.3 40.5 22.1 18.2 31.5 15.3 42.0 32.6 85.4 32.7 14.2 56.5 5.1 with access) 54.4 52.7 87.3 73.8 75.8 92.3 72.1 28.2 81.9 source, urban(% tion withaccess) of urbanpopula Improved water 89.6 94.8 94.0 91.1 97.5 99.2 85.2 75.4 84.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 69.3 86.2 92.8 26.3 15.3 16.0 24.4 17.7 66.8 17.2 17.2 26.6 68.4 97.6 90.5 42.7 31.1 54.7 69.6 65.8 18.8 49.3 69.2 5.7 8.1 8.8 3.6 3.4 1.2 - Improved sanitation facilities (%of with access) population 21.7 45.6 72.0 19.4 63.3 19.6 51.1 87.4 48 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 97.5 98.9 98.5 69.9 71.6 78.5 46.9 71.2 67.6 46.4 62.1 12.3 96.6 57.7 46.5 87.8 97.4 99.8 95.0 97.9 99.8 98.2 96.9 91.3 90.2 95.1 Improved sanitation of ruralpopulation facilities, rural(% with access) 26.8 54.3 48.6 43.1 22.5 81.5 7.2 6.7 7.3 Improved sanitation of urbanpopulation facilities, urban(% with access) 1849.1 2719.7 1417.9 4407.0 1243.4 1610.7 1514.5 1809.1 711.08 1665.6 640.1 846.3 496.4 561.8 717.3 145.0 156.9 209.6 843.6 451.7 579.5 152.6 724.5 206.5 275.7 94.6 38.2 43.6 61.8 81.6 43.8 50.4 78.5 35.6 88.6 89.9 ...... ANNEX  33 .. 40.2 50.9 84.9 85.9 64.6 76.3 47.3 37.3 57.5 93.9 84.1 42.4 54.7 37.9 33.0 58.7 40.8 65.1 98.4 22.8 69.3 16.4 43.9 63.1 30.3 24.6 97.4 28.5 55.8 49.4 31.4 48.3 28.6 20.0 32.8 59.8 96.8 79.9 44.5 26.9 43.4 61.5 20.2 34.1 33.5 31.2 37.3 27.8 96.8 17.9 .. 4.6 6.8 4.5 8.2 3.1 6.5 5.6 5.1 7.3 8.6 8.5 5.8 8.7 23.3 31.7 63.6 61.9 35.1 46.7 39.3 15.8 13.8 92.6 65.5 10.1 16.6 25.9 61.7 23.3 33.3 98.4 59.5 13.4 56.0 79.8 17.3 35.4 31.0 30.9 28.1 10.3 93.1 71.0 26.7 31.5 55.0 11.8 29.7 27.6 95.7 .. 6.7 29.7 40.3 74.9 80.6 44.8 60.8 40.6 24.2 39.7 93.2 76.6 20.4 34.0 10.8 29.3 60.8 34.6 47.1 98.4 13.1 65.8 23.6 57.5 15.0 11.6 91.6 19.0 43.7 37.0 12.0 35.8 28.3 14.9 22.3 47.4 94.7 74.5 15.6 26.8 41.8 58.8 14.8 20.0 20.7 30.1 30.2 16.6 96.6 11.9 .. .. 85.9 89.2 96.8 97.3 95.4 95.1 95.5 94.8 58.4 99.9 98.7 80.6 98.2 80.6 86.5 98.9 92.8 95.7 84.3 99.5 66.7 66.0 93.6 77.8 90.9 95.5 85.7 97.1 71.8 92.6 81.3 95.8 93.1 97.4 72.5 73.2 92.7 97.2 94.2 92.3 92.7 96.7 81.6 94.5 87.8 81.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 .. .. 82.8 45.5 43.8 93.2 75.8 50.2 67.5 55.0 65.0 88.9 83.0 90.8 48.6 56.0 71.3 93.6 66.3 95.7 46.7 80.7 56.9 50.2 68.9 59.1 56.8 76.9 61.9 34.5 87.0 62.3 57.1 99.8 65.3 37.0 83.6 89.1 30.9 40.0 68.8 64.7 98.7 31.5 53.3 46.7 66.7 84.4 82.2 67.4 44.8 .. .. 88.6 55.5 62.4 97.7 78.9 64.6 77.1 66.5 74.9 93.0 94.1 92.3 58.1 67.6 75.5 97.1 77.8 95.7 61.6 92.8 58.7 55.5 74.1 77.4 63.1 81.6 74.7 50.6 88.4 75.0 57.9 99.9 85.3 50.9 90.3 90.1 52.1 76.3 81.8 90.0 99.2 47.8 57.7 55.4 93.2 90.2 87.6 76.7 50.8 Water and sanitation statistics, by country (cont.) statistics, and sanitation Water EAP (developing) LAC (developing) South Asia Low & middle income countries Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe SSA Africa South Africa South Sudan Sudan Swaziland Tanzania Togo Tunisia Sao Tome and Sao Tome Principe Senegal Seychelles Sierra Leone Somalia Mauritius Morocco Mozambique Namibia Niger Nigeria Rwanda Liberia Libya Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Gambia, The Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Kenya Lesotho Djibouti Egypt, Arab Rep. Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Gabon Chad Comoros Rep. Congo, Dem. Congo, Rep. Cote d’Ivoire Table A5: A5: Table  JAMES BOND 34 Source: Table A4: Comparator Average Vietnam Uzbekistan Pakistan Nicaragua Myanmar Moldova Lao PDR Kyrgyz Republic India Honduras Cambodia Bangladesh World Bank (2016) Bank World Water andsanitationstatistics,bycountry(cont.) 86.6 96.4 91.3 86.9 80.5 88.4 75.5 89.2 94.1 90.6 73.4 86.2 .. 86.1 81.2 95.2 89.6 69.4 74.4 81.4 69.4 85.1 92.6 82.8 67.1 .. 95.1 98.7 98.5 94.0 99.3 92.7 96.9 85.6 96.7 97.1 97.2 97.8 86.3 100.0 71.2 78.0 63.5 67.9 79.6 76.4 70.9 93.3 39.6 82.6 42.4 60.6 100.0 64.3 69.7 51.1 55.7 77.1 67.1 56.0 95.6 28.5 77.7 30.5 62.1 100.0 83.7 94.4 83.1 76.5 84.3 87.8 94.5 89.1 62.6 86.7 88.1 57.7 References

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JICA TICAD VI Policy Papers

Theodore Ahlers Africa 2050 update

Claudio Loser & Ieva Vilkelyte The impact of commodity terms of trade in Africa: Curse, blessing, or manageable reality?

Louise Fox Africa’s inclusive growth challenge: Reducing deprivation and creating jobs

James Bond Infrastructure in Africa Economic diversification of African economies

Hasan Tuluy Regional economic integration in Africa

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