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Valuatum Template EFECTE Software/Finland, November 16, 2017 IPO Research Report Efecte – IPO Research Report Rating NOT DISCLOSED Growing software company with solid market growth outlook Efecte focuses on a SaaS business model offering software solutions within IT service management, and identity and access management. Efecte’s business model offers stability due to the recurring revenues brought by the sale of licenses. During the first three quarters of the year around 60 % of revenue was recurring, mainly from SaaS licenses. Market forecasts are at double-digit CAGR sales growth for 2016-2021 in relevant markets and Efecte’s target is to grow annually organically on average over 20 % during 2017-2022. Efecte is seeking to increase the international operations, opening up room to grow in larger markets such as Germany. We expect a sales growth Latest report on company 16-Nov-2017 CAGR of around 23 % between 2017-2019E. We see that the growth will increase towards 2019 as the expanding sales Web site www.efecte.com organization will start showing results with some delay. CEO Sakari Suhonen CFO Hannu Nyman Growth investments burden profitability Head office Vaisalantie 6, Espoo Due to growth initiatives the company has not in recent years achieved significant profitability. Efecte currently sees potential Analysts to continue growth and the related up front personnel Analyst Jerker Salokivi recruitments are expected to continue to affect profitability in the coming years. Efecte’s target is to reach a double digit EBIT- E-mail [email protected] margin towards the end of the period 2017-2022. Telephone +358 9 4766 9149 Analyst Tomi Lindell Preliminary equity valuation range of EUR 27.5-37.5m E-mail [email protected] We have derived a preliminary equity valuation range of EUR Telephone +358 9 4766 9204 27.5-37.5m. At the higher end of our valuation range we consider valuation toward the large global SaaS companies and All the important disclosures can be found on the last pages of this report. Nordic software companies, with median EV/Sales of 5.8x and 3.0x for 2018E respectively, adjusted downward to account for Efecte’s smaller size. At the lower end of our valuation range, we believe that Efecte should be valued well above the Nordic IT- services providers, trading at median EV/Sales 2018E of 1.1x, due to good sales growth outlook and the services revenue being related to SaaS implementation translating into predicatable and recurring Subscription licenses revenues. KEY FIGURES Sales EBIT EBIT Ptx profit EPS P/E EV/Sales P/CF EV/EBIT DPS EURm EURm % EURm EUR (x) (x) (x) (x) EUR 2015 7 0 -4.8% 0 -0.22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.00 2016 8 0 1.6% 0 0.08 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.00 2017E 10 0 -2.1% -1 -0.14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.00 2018E 13 -1 -4.9% -1 -0.08 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.00 2019E 16 0 -1.8% 0 -0.04 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.00 Market cap, EURm N/A BV per share 2017E, EUR N/A CAGR EPS 2016-19, % N/A Net debt 2017E, EURm -5 Price/book 2017E N/A CAGR sales 2016-19, % 23.5 Enterprise value, EURm N/A Dividend yield 2017E, % N/A ROE 2017E, % -27.3 Total assets 2017E, EURm 8 Tax rate 2017E, % 0.0 ROCE 2017E, % -7.4 Goodwill 2017E, EURm 0 Equity ratio 2017E, % 61.9 PEG, P/E 17/CAGR N/A THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, NEW ZEALAND, AUSTRALIA, JAPAN, HONG KONG OR SOUTH AFRICA OR ANY OTHER JURISDICTION IN WHICH THE DISTRIBUTION WOULD BE UNLAWFUL. 1 EVLI EQUITY RESEARCH EFECTE Software/Finland, November 16, 2017 IPO Research Report Investment summary Finnish software company Efecte is a Finnish software company specialized in IT service management (ITSM) and offering solutions in ITSM identity and access management (IAM) solutions to medium and large size companies and IAM and public organizations. The company was founded in 1998 and employs 92 people (1.11.2017), with sales offices in Finland, Sweden, Germany and Denmark, and has around 300 customers. SaaS business model with Efecte offers IT solutions mainly as a software as a service (SaaS). In addition Efecte stable recurring revenue offers services which support customers in adopting Efecte’s solutions. Since the release of Efecte’s Edge platform in 2014, the company has gained over 100 new customers. The advantage of the SaaS model is more stable and recurring revenues, with customer licenses typically having a 3 year minimum contract period. Recurring revenue 60 % of In 2016 the company had net sales of EUR 8.3m. The net sales CAGR between 2012-2016 total revenue during1-9/17 amounted to 17.3 %. The company’s sales mix has improved increasingly towards stable and recurring revenues from the SaaS licenses. During 1-9/17 roughly 60 % of revenue has been recurring, with roughly 46 % of that from SaaS licenses. Investments have The shift to the SaaS model and growth investments have burdened profitability and burdened profitability during the previous years the company has not yet reached healthy levels of profitability. Due to the scalability of the business model good profitability would in our view be achievable but up-front investments to continue the growth phase are expected to continue to burden profitability. Good outlook for European The growth outlook for Efecte’s core market areas looks bright. The European cloud- cloud-based ITSM- and based ITSM-market is expected to grow by a CAGR between 2016 and 2021 of 15.5 % IAM-markets and the European cloud-based IAM-market is expected to grow by a CAGR between 2016 and 2021 of 22.0 % (Marketsandmarkets via Efecte). Currently 86 % of revenue comes from Finland but the company has made investments that aim to increase revenue from other countries. Guidance for 2017 – Sales Efecte has given guidance for year 2017 net sales and EBITDA. The net sales is expected between EUR 10.3m and to be between EUR 10.3 and 10.8m in 2017. In 2016, net sales amounted to EUR 8.3 10.8m and positive EBITDA million. The company also expects its EBITDA to be positive in 2017. The EBITDA-margin in 2016 was 5.9 %. Long term financial targets Efecte’s long term financial targets cover the period 2017-2022. The company expects on 2017-2022 average an annual organic revenue growth of over 20 % during the period. Investments into internationalization are expected to affect earnings in the coming years but the company aims for a double digit EBIT-margin towards the end of the strategy period. Estimated good near-term For the years 2017-2019E we expect a sales CAGR of around 23 %. We expect the growth but low stronger growth to start showing with a delay, as investments into the sales organization profitability will take some time to show as revenue. We expect EBIT-margins to remain negative during 2017-2018 due to continued up-front investments in the form of further recruitments of personnel. Preliminary equity We have derived a preliminary equity valuation range of EUR 27.5-37.5m. At the higher valuation range of EUR end of our valuation range we consider valuation toward the large global SaaS 27.5-37.5m companies and Nordic software companies, with median EV/Sales of 5.8x and 3.0x for 2018E respectively, adjusted downward to account for Efecte’s smaller size. At the lower end of our valuation range, we believe Efecte should be valued well above the Nordic IT- services providers, trading at median EV/Sales 2018E of 1.1x, due to good sales growth outlook and services revenue being related to SaaS implementation, translating into predicatable and recurring Subscription licenses revenues. THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, NEW ZEALAND, AUSTRALIA, JAPAN, HONG KONG OR SOUTH AFRICA OR ANY OTHER JURISDICTION IN WHICH THE DISTRIBUTION WOULD BE UNLAWFUL. 2 EVLI EQUITY RESEARCH EFECTE Software/Finland, November 16, 2017 IPO Research Report Company and business overview Finnish software company Efecte is a Finnish software company specialized in IT service management and identity focusing on ITSM and IAM and access management solutions. The company was founded in 1998 and employs 92 people (1.11.2017), with sales offices in Finland, Sweden, Germany and Denmark. The company’s headquarters are located in Espoo, Finland. Efecte’s software solutions areas can be divided into: IT service management (ITSM); IT service management refers to the entirety of activities that are performed to plan, design, deliver, operate and control information technology within an organization. Identity and access management (IAM); Identity and access management refers to the entirety of activities to govern and manage the right to access to information and resources within organizations. Efecte’s solutions are mainly offered as a so called Software as a Service (SaaS), which means its software is licensed on a subscription basis and centrally hosted and delivered over the Internet. In addition Efecte offers consulting services which support customers in adopting Efecte’s solutions. In 2016 the company’s net sales were EUR 8.3 million and EBITDA EUR 0.5 million. The majority of net sales (86.5 percent) in 2016 came from Finland. Figure 1: Efecte’s sales by geography, source, and type (1-9/2017) Source: Efecte Efecte’s clients consist of mid-sized and large companies as well as public organizations.
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