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The Impact of Tourism on the Economy and Population of Small Islands: the Case of Aruba ISBN: 978-90-6266-270-8

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The Impact of Tourism on the Economy and Population of Small Islands: the Case of Aruba ISBN: 978-90-6266-270-8 The Impact of Tourism on the Economy and Population of Small Islands: The Case of Aruba ISBN: 978-90-6266-270-8 Coverphotos: Rosalinda Croes Graphic design and figures: GeoMedia, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University English correction: Dr Anne Hawkins © 2007 Haime Croes. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without permission in writing from the proprietor. The Impact of Tourism on the Economy and Population of Small Islands: The Case of Aruba Het Effect van Toerisme op de Economie en de Bevolking van Kleine Eilanden: Een studie van Aruba (met een samenvatting in het Nederlands) Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Universiteit Utrecht op gezag van de rector magnificus, prof. dr. W.H. Gispen, ingevolge het besluit van het college voor promoties in het openbaar te verdedigen op donderdag 11 oktober 2007 des middags te 12.45 uur door Rigoberto Haime Croes geboren op 4 januari 1964 te Oranjestad, Aruba Promotor: prof. dr. P. Hooimeijer To my father, Geronimo Croes, I dedicate this book to you in appreciation for showing me that education is the most beautiful and important asset in my life. Your son, Haime Croes October, 2007 Let us think of education as the means of developing our greatest abilities, because in each of us there is a private hope and dream which, fulfilled, can be translated into benefit for everyone and greater strength for our nation. John F. Kennedy As the traveller who has once been from home is wiser than he who has never left his own doorstep, so a knowledge of one other culture should sharpen our ability to scrutinize more steadily, to appreciate more lovingly, our own. Margaret Mead | 6 | Contents List of Tables 9 List of Figures 10 Preface 11 1 Introduction 13 1.1 Background 13 1.2 Aruba tourism in the global context 14 1.3 Theoretical framework 19 1.4 Research questions 21 1.5 Dissertation outline 22 References 23 2 Accommodation portfolio and market differentiation: The case of Aruba 27 Abstract 27 2.1 Introduction 27 2.2 Accommodation mix: single market or market differentiation strategy? 28 2.3 Study method 30 2.4 Results 31 2.4.1 Results Bivariate analyses 31 2.4.2 Results CHAID analyses 32 2.5 Conclusion 35 References 36 3 Product-market mixing: An all-season destination tool 39 Abstract 39 3.1 Introduction 39 3.2 Strategies for diversification: products and markets 40 3.3 Study method 42 3.4 Results 43 3.4.1 Bivariate results on seasonality 43 3.4.2 Bivariate results on product-market mix 45 3.4.3 Results of the Multivariate Analysis 46 3.5 Conclusion 48 References 49 4 Multiplier effects in open island economies 53 Abstract 53 4.1 Introduction 53 4.2 Expansion of tourism: boon or bane? 55 | 7 | 4.3 Study Methods 58 4.4 Results 59 4.4.1 Inter-Industry Linkages 59 4.4.2 Induced effects 60 4.4.3 Income and employment effects 61 4.4.4 Comparing Countries 62 4.5 Conclusions 64 References 65 5 International migration and the tourist industry in Aruba 69 Abstract 69 5.1 Introduction 69 5.2 Literature review 72 5.3 Data and method 75 5.4 Results 76 5.5 Conclusions 82 References 83 6 Gender and chain migration: The case of Aruba 87 Abstract 87 6.1 Introduction 87 6.2 Literature review 89 6.3 Data and Method 91 6.4 Results 93 6.4.1 Bivariate results 93 6.4.2 The multivariate results 96 6.5 Conclusions 98 References 100 7 Conclusion and discussion 103 7.1 Introduction 103 7.2 Summary of findings 104 7.2.1 The tourist market effect 104 7.2.2 The economic effects 104 7.2.3 The demographic effects 105 7.3 General Conclusions 105 7.4 Discussion and reflection 106 7.4.1 Future development 106 7.4.2 Contribution to the scientific research 107 7.5 Final remarks 108 References 109 Appendices 111 Samenvatting in het Nederlands 115 Curriculum Vitae 127 | 8 | List of Tables 1.1 List of selected Caribbean islands socio-economic indicator 2002 17 2.1 Length of stay by accommodation types 31 2.2 Geographical market by accommodation types 32 2.3 Response index rate of the selected groups 33 3.1 Accommodation type by season 43 3.2 Geographic market by season 44 3.3 Purpose of visit by season 44 3.4 Accommodation types by geographic market 45 3.5 Accommodation types by purpose of visit 45 3.6 The results of the multinomial logit-model 47 4.1 Type I output multipliers for Aruba (1995, 1997, 1999, 2002) 60 4.2 Type II output multipliers for Aruba (1995, 1997, 1999, 2002) 61 4.3 The household income and employment effects (1995-2002) 62 4.4 Output multipliers for Aruba and the Netherlands Antilles (1999) 63 4.5 Output, income and employment multipliers 1999 for the sector hotels & restaurants 64 5.1 Numbers and cumulative percentage of nationalities on Aruba 71 5.2 Job level by sector of economic activity 77 5.3 Gender segregation by sector of economic activity 78 5.4 Country of origin by sector of economic activity 79 5.5 Multinomial regression with interaction effects: dependent variable= probability of 80 the countries of origin of the labour migrants (North American and European countries, Asian countries, Caribbean, and Latin America). 6.1 Sector by state of pioneer labour migrants 94 6.2 Nationality by sort of family reunification by gender 95 6.3 Logistic regression model with main effects and interaction effects: dependent 97 variable = probability for family reunification. A.1 Technical coefficients for Aruba 111 A.2 Technical coefficients for the Netherlands Antilles 111 B.1 Type II output multipliers for Aruba 112 B.2 Type II output multipliers for the Netherlands Antilles 112 C.1 Type II household-income multipliers for Aruba 113 C.2 Type II household-income multipliers for the Netherlands Antilles 113 D.1 Type II employment multipliers for Aruba 114 D.2 Type II employment multipliers for the Netherlands Antilles 114 | 9 | List of Figures 1.1 Chain of impacts of tourism on a small island 14 1.2 Aruba tourist arrivals 1992-2002 14 1.3 Aruba performance in comparison with the global trends 15 1.4 The Caribbean islands with their main tourist market 2002 15 1.5 Monthly tourist arrivals in the Caribbean and Aruba 16 1.6 International migrants stock 2000 18 1.7 Net migration 1992-2002 19 2.1 Tree diagram 34 5.1 Employed population by branch or industry 70 | 10 | Preface My PhD journey started when, after 10 years of research, work, and teaching in the geographic field of housing, I felt the need for new opportunities. Living in Aruba, the most important geographic issues discussed in the community were the future development of tourism and migration. Many actors in the Aruba community have talked about tourism and migration a great deal, but in-depth knowledge about these two international phenomena was scarce. With this in mind, I sketched out some ideas for a research project that could give me the opportunity to start my PhD journey. In the school summer vacation of 2000, I presented my draft to my old teacher of demographic research, Pieter Hooimeijer, and after two years of working with him and with Clara Mulder in my vacation and by email my proposal was accepted. In January 2003, I started full-time research at the Faculty of Geosciences in Utrecht University. Returning to scientific research after a long time was harder than I had expected. Old skills needed to be recovered and new ones developed; there was a different mode of reasoning to grasp, and a large knowledge gap to fill. The way of thinking in the new scientific paradigm was stimulating, fascinating, but sometimes also discouraging. My emotional support was my wife, Rosalinda. The total change in our lives was refreshing and the return to the Netherlands was like coming back home; we had both lived in the Netherlands some time ago when I studied there for eight years. I am sincerely grateful to my supervisor Prof. Pieter Hooimeijer for his patience, support, and enthusiasm. Pieter’s mathematical and analytical skills and research experience are outstanding, and represent qualities that I would like to aspire to. He let me follow my own thoughts while firmly guiding me back to a manageable task. It was my privilege to have Pieter as my supervisor. The successful completion of my project owes a great deal to his leadership. My thanks also go to Prof. John Fletcher, Bournemouth University, for his advice and sharing of his knowledge about tourism and in particular economic impact studies. My thanks go too to Prof. Clara Mulder for her critical comments about written articles and methods used. I benefited from her extensive knowledge of fundamental theoretical methods in scientific research. I also want to thank Dr Peteke Feijten for her advice in the first years of my PhD project. To Peteke goes my appreciation for her generous sharing of her expertise and her practical help. I thank the members of the Amsterdam-Utrecht seminar group under the supervision of Clara Mulder and Pieter Hooimeijer (Leerzitje) for the countless useful comments on early drafts of the manuscripts that form the chapters of this book. Without these insightful comments it would have taken much longer for my research papers to reach the level they eventually did.
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