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ECS ECONOMIC CONSULTING SERVICES 428 Old Newport Blvd. Newport Beach, CA 92663 Phone: (949) 574-0800 Fax: (949) 574-0848 www.economicconsultingservices.com Memorandum Report PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIALS FOR THE E-ZONE LOCATED IN THE CITY OF BUENA PARK, CALIFORNIA Prepared for: THE CITY OF BUENA PARK February, 2008 ECS ECONOMIC CONSULTING SERVICES TABLE OF CONTENTS Text Page INTRODUCTION 1 THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT OF THE E-ZONE IN THE CITY OF BUENA PARK 4 ORANGE COUNTY GENERAL OVERVIEW 4 THE CITY OF BUENA PARK 5 THE E-ZONE 7 SITE LOCATION 10 SITES AVAILABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT 11 THE AVAILABLE MARKETS 11 THE LOCAL RESIDENT MARKET 14 Population 15 Age and Income Demographics 18 Other General Demographic Data 20 THE VISITOR MARKET 25 Orange County Tourism 25 Tourists Staying with Friends and Relatives 30 Buena Park Tourist Market 30 MARKET SUMMARY 30 SWOT ANALYSIS FOR THE E-ZONE IN BUENA PARK 34 STRENGTHS 34 WEAKNESSES 34 OPPORTUNITIES 35 THREATS 35 ANALYSIS OF POTENTIALS FOR AN URBAN ENTERTAINMENT CENTER AT THE E-ZONE IN BUENA PARK 36 COMPARABLE SHOPPING, DINING AND ENTERTAINMENT CENTERS 36 CityWalk – Universal City, California 37 The Irvine Spectrum – Irvine, California 42 The Block at Orange – California 46 Summary of Comparable Shopping, Dining and Entertainment Centers 52 OTHER COMPARABLE/COMPETITIVE DEVELOPMENTS 55 Brea Downtown 55 Downtown Disney 55 ECS ECONOMIC CONSULTING SERVICES TABLE OF CONTENTS -Continued- Text Page Anaheim GardenWalk 60 Victoria Gardens 63 Bella Terra 63 EXISTING RETAIL ENVIRONMENT IN BUENA PARK 66 Future Mall Potentials 71 EXISTING RETAIL ENVIRONMENT 71 ANALYSIS OF THE U.E.C. COMPONENT AT BUENA PARK’S E-ZONE DISTRICT 73 RECOMMENDED CONCEPT 73 Restaurants 75 Retail 75 Entertainment Venues 77 Total Space 77 U.E.C. ATTENDANCE AND FINANCIAL POTENTIALS 77 Attendance Potentials 78 Estimated Annual Sales & Sizing 80 Projected Rental Income 82 Ten-Year Summary of Attendance & Financial Potentials 83 Planning Factors 83 SUMMARY 86 ANALYSIS OF POTENTIALS FOR HOTEL RESORTS AT THE E-ZONE IN BUENA PARK 87 BACKGROUND DATA FOR HOTEL/RESORTS WITH WATERPARKS 87 Indoor Waterparks in the Dells 88 General Observations of Waterpark Facilities in the Lodging Industry 95 Hotel/Waterpark Resorts Characteristics 95 Typical Development Costs for Upscale Hotel Waterpark Resorts 96 BUENA PARK E-ZONE HOTEL MARKET, ROOM INVENTORY AND RATES 96 POTENTIALS FOR A HOTEL RESORT WITH WATER PARK 100 POTENTIALS FOR A HOTEL WITH CONFERENCE CENTER 104 SUMMARY 108 ANALYSIS OF POTENTIALS FOR AN AQUARIUM ATTRACTION AT THE E-ZONE IN BUENA PARK 108 REVIEW OF OTHER RIPLEY’S AQUARIUM ATTRACTIONS 108 ECS ECONOMIC CONSULTING SERVICES TABLE OF CONTENTS -Continued- Text Page Ripley’s Aquarium – Myrtle Beach, South Carolina 108 Ripley’s Aquarium – Gatlinburg, Tennessee 110 Market Capture Rate Experience 110 ATTENDANCE POTENTIAL 113 TEN-YEAR ATTENDANCE AND FINANCIAL POTENTIALS 113 PLANNING FACTORS 116 SUMMARY 116 ANALYSIS OF POTENTIALS FOR A DINNER THEATER ATTRACTION AT THE E-ZONE IN BUENA PARK 118 ANALYSIS OF POTENTIALS FOR AN INTERACTIVE MUSEUM AT THE E-ZONE IN BUENA PARK 124 ANALYSIS OF POTENTIALS FOR A BASS PRO SHOP AT THE E-ZONE IN BUENA PARK 130 ANALYSIS OF POTENTIALS FOR A FREE-STANDING CONFERENCE CENTER AT THE E-ZONE IN BUENA PARK 130 SUMMARY OF USES 132 POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS AND BENEFITS RESULTING FROM THE OPERATIONS & DEVELOPMENT OF THE RECOMMENDED ELEMENTS OF THE REVITALIZED E-ZONE IN BUENA PARK 139 ECONOMIC IMPACTS AND BENEFIT 139 COMPONENTS OF ECONOMIC IMPACT 139 Impact Areas 140 The Multiplier Effect 140 TAX REVENUE POTENTIALS 141 IMPACTS OF CONSTRUCTION 143 IMPACTS OF OPERATIONS 145 INDUCED VISITATION AND SPENDING 146 IMPACTS OF THE ECONOMIC MULTIPLIER 149 NON-QUANTIFIABLE IMPACTS 149 SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL SITES 151 SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS 154 SITES ALONG BEACH BOULEVARD 154 WEST-END OF THE BUENA PARK MALL 154 KNOTT’S EASTERN-MOST PROPERTY 155 SOUTH-END OF MASTERPLAN ZONE 155 NORTH-END OF MASTERPLAN ZONE 156 ECS ECONOMIC CONSULTING SERVICES LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1 BUENA PARK FACT SHEET 6 2 OVERVIEW OF GENERAL OPERATING DATA FOR BUENA PARK’S MAIN ATTRACTIONS 9 3 BUENA PARK RESIDENT MARKET POPULATION, HOUSEHOLDS AND NUMBER OF FAMILIES 17 4 BUENA PARK RESIDENT MARKET ESTIMATED POPULATION BY AGE (2007) 19 5 BUENA PARK RESIDENT MARKET ESTIMATED HOUSEHOLDS BY HOUSEHOLD INCOME (2007) 21 6 BUENA PARK RESIDENT MARKET POPULATION BY RACE/ETHNICITY (2007) 22 7 BUENA PARK NUMBER OF HOUSING UNITS IN THE RESIDENT MARKET (2007) 23 8 BUENA PARK RESIDENT MARKET HOUSEHOLDS BY SIZE (2000) 24 9 ORANGE COUNTY VISITOR STATISTICS (2006) 26 10 STATISTICS AND TRENDS OF ROOM BUSINESS IN ORANGE COUNTY 27 11 BUENA PARK HOTEL STATISTICS 28 12 ORANGE COUNTY OVERNIGHT VISITOR MARKET IN HOTEL ACCOMMODATIONS (2006) 29 13 INVENTORY OF BUENA PARK E-ZONE HOTELS 31 14 BUENA PARK OVERNIGHT VISITOR MARKET IN HOTEL & MOTEL ACCOMMODATIONS (2006) 32 15 MARKET SUMMARY – FOR BUENA PARK’S E-ZONE (2007 & 2012) 33 16 OPERATING EXPERIENCE – CITYWALK, UNIVERSAL CITY (PHASE I & PHASE II) 38 17 UNIVERSAL’S CITYWALK – PHASE III 40 18 TENANT MIX AND SIZING AT THE IRVINE SPECTRUM 44 19 IRVINE SPECTRUM LIST OF PHASE II TENANTS 45 20 IRVINE SPECTRUM LIST OF PHASE III TENANTS 47 21 IRVINE SPECTRUM LIST OF PHASE IV TENANTS 48 22 THE BLOCK AT ORANGE GENERAL OPERATING DATA 49 23 COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SPECIALTY SHOPPING, DINING AND ENTERTAINMENT CENTERS 53 24 BREA DOWNTOWN TENANT LIST 57 25 DOWNTOWN DISNEY DISTRICT INVENTORY OF TENANTS 59 26 ANAHEIM GARDENWALK GENERAL INFORMATION 61 27 GENERAL OPERATING DATA – BUENA PARK DOWNTOWN 67 28 INVENTORY OF BUENA PARK DINING OPTIONS 72 29 SELECTED NATIONAL CHAIN RESTAURANT OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS 74 30 PRELIMINARY TENANT MIX FOR THE PROPOSED RETAIL/ENTERTAINMENT CENTER 76 31 MARKET AND ATTENDANCE ANALYSIS FOR A U.E.C. PROJECT IN BUENA PARK 79 32 EVALUATION OF ACTIVITY AND RELATED SPATIAL REQUIREMENTS FOR A U.E.C. IN BUENA PARK 81 33 PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF A U.E.C. IN BUENA PARK 84 34 DESIGN DATA PLANNING FACTORS FOR THE PROPOSED U.E.C. 85 ECS ECONOMIC CONSULTING SERVICES LIST OF TABLES Table Page 35 GENERAL OPERATING DATA – GREAT WOLF LODGE 89 36 GENERAL OPERATING DATA – WILDERNESS HOTEL & GOLF RESORT 91 37 GENERAL OPERATING DATA – KALAHARI RESORT 92 38 GENERAL OPERATING DATA – CHULA VISTA RESORT 94 39 BUENA PARK HOTEL STATISTICS 98 40 STATISTICS AND TRENDS OF ROOMS BUSINESS IN ORANGE COUNTY 99 41 HOTEL WITH WATER PARK – BUENA PARK 101 42 PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF A HOTEL WITH WATERPARK IN BUENA PARK 102 43 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF LAND AREA REQUIREMENT FOR A HOTEL WITH WATERPARK IN BUENA PARK 103 44 HOTEL WITH CONFERENCE CENTER – BUENA PARK 105 45 PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF A HOTEL WITH CONFERENCE CENTER IN BUENA PARK 106 46 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF LAND AREA REQUIREMENT FOR A HOTEL AND CONFERENCE CENTER IN BUENA PARK 107 47 GENERAL OPERATING DATA – RIPLEY’S AQUARIUM - MYRTLE BEACH, SOUTH CAROLINA 109 48 GENERAL OPERATING DATA – RIPLEY’S AQUARIUM OF THE SMOKIES - GATLINBURG, TENNESSEE 111 49 MARKET ANALYSIS FOR COMPARABLE RIPLEY’S AQUARIUM FACILITIES 112 50 MARKET ANALYSIS FOR AN AQUARIUM PROJECT IN BUENA PARK 114 51 PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS FOR AN AQUARIUM ATTRACTION IN BUENA PARK 115 52 DESIGN DAY PLANNING FACTORS – PROPOSED AQUARIUM ATTRACTION 117 53 GENERAL OPERATING DATA – DIXIE STAMPEDE 119 54 ESTIMATED ATTENDANCE AND MARKET PENETRATION OF DIXIE STAMPEDE DINNER THEATERS 121 55 DINNER THEATER ANALYSIS – BUENA PARK 122 56 PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF A DINNER THEATER IN BUENA PARK 123 57 DINNER/SHOW THEATER LAND AREA REQUIREMENTS 125 58 TITANIC BRANSON SUMMARY OF OPERATIONS 126 59 PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF AN INTERACTIVE MUSEUM IN BUENA PARK 128 60 DESIGN DAY PLANNING FACTORS - PROPOSED INTERACTIVE MUSEUM ATTRACTION 129 61 FREE-STANDING CONFERENCE CENTER ANALYSIS – BUENA PARK 131 62 PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF FREE-STANDING CONFERENCE CENTER IN BUENA PARK 133 63 CONFERENCE CENTER LAND USE REQUIREMENTS 134 64 OVERALL ATTENDANCE/PATRONAGE, ON-SITE ACTIVITY AND LAND AREA REQUIREMENTS FOR VARIOUS USES PROPOSED FOR BUENA PARK E-ZONE 135 65 OVERALL USE ANALYSIS FOR BUENA PARK E-ZONE 142 ECS ECONOMIC CONSULTING SERVICES LIST OF TABLES Table Page 66 SALES TAX/BED TAX & PROPERTY TAX POTENTIALS FOR THE VARIOUS RECOMMENDED USES AT THE BUENA PARK E-ZONE 142 67 DIRECT CONSTRUCTION IMPACTS 144 68 BUENA PARK AREA ESTIMATED TOURIST VISITATION AND EXPENDITURES 147 69 IMPACT OF THE ECONOMIC MULTIPLIER ON DIRECT JOBS AND EXPENDITURES 150 LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page I BUENA PARK E-ZONE STUDY AREA 2 II MAP OF BUENA PARK’S E-ZONE 8 III AGENCY-OWNED SITES 12 IV COMMON OWNERSHIP SITES 13 V BUENA PARK RESIDENT MARKETS 16 VI CITYWALK SITE MAP 41 VII IRVINE SPECTRUM SITE MAP 43 VIII THE BLOCK AT ORANGE SITE MAP 51 IX MAP OF COMPARABLE/COMPETITIVE URBAN ENTERTAINMENT CENTERS AND SHOPPING CENTERS 56 X BREA DOWNTOWN SITE MAP 58 XI ANAHEIM GARDENWALK SITE MAP 62 XII VICTORIA GARDENS TENANT LIST AND MAP 64 XIII BELLA TERRA MAP AND TENANT LIST 65 XIV BUENA PARK DOWNTOWN LOWER LEVEL – SITE MAP 68 XV BUENA PARK DOWNTOWN UPPER LEVEL – SITE MAP 69 XVI BUENA PARK PLACE – SITE MAP 70 XVII BUENA PARK E-ZONE FUTURE POTENTIAL VISITATION 153 !" ! 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