Hurricane Michael Data Call
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A Rapid Forecasting and Mapping System of Storm Surge and Coastal Flooding
AUGUST 2020 Y A N G E T A L . 1663 A Rapid Forecasting and Mapping System of Storm Surge and Coastal Flooding KUN YANG,VLADIMIR A. PARAMYGIN, AND Y. PETER SHENG Department of Civil and Coastal Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida (Manuscript received 16 July 2019, in final form 2 March 2020) ABSTRACT A prototype of an efficient and accurate rapid forecasting and mapping system (RFMS) of storm surge is presented. Given a storm advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the RFMS can generate a coastal inundation map on a high-resolution grid in 1 min (reference system Intel Core i7–3770K). The foundation of the RFMS is a storm surge database consisting of high-resolution simulations of 490 optimal storms generated by a robust storm surge modeling system, Curvilinear-Grid Hydrodynamics in 3D (CH3D-SSMS). The RFMS uses an efficient quick kriging interpolation scheme to interpolate the surge response from the storm surge database, which considers tens of thousands of combinations of five landfall parameters of storms: central pressure deficit, radius to maximum wind, forward speed, heading direction, and landfall location. The RFMS is applied to southwest Florida using data from Hurricane Charley in 2004 and Hurricane Irma in 2017, and to the Florida Panhandle using data from Hurricane Michael in 2018 and validated with observed high water mark data. The RFMS results agree well with observation and direct simulation of the high-resolution CH3D- SSMS. The RFMS can be used for real-time forecasting during a hurricane or ‘‘what-if’’ scenarios for miti- gation planning and preparedness training, or to produce a probabilistic flood map. -
Chapter 6: Everglades Research and Evaluation
2020 South Florida Environmental Report – Volume I Chapter 6 1 Chapter 6: 2 Everglades Research and Evaluation 3 Edited by Fred Sklar 4 SUMMARY 5 This chapter summarizes Water Year 2019 (WY2019; May 1, 2018–April 30, 2019) hydrology in the 6 Everglades Protection Area (EPA), followed by an overview of key Everglades studies on wildlife, plants, 7 the ecosystem, and landscapes (Table 6-1). Programs of study are based on the short-term operational needs 8 and long-term restoration goals of the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD or District), 9 including large-scale and regional hydrologic needs in relation to regulation schedules, permitting, 10 Everglades Forever Act (Section 373.4592, Florida Statutes [F.S.]) mandates, and the Comprehensive 11 Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP). In addition, the Decomp Physical Model (DPM) research is discussed 12 in Appendix 6-1 of this volume. 13 Table 6-1. WY2019 Everglades research findings in relation to operational mandates. Hydrology Projects Findings Mandates a Across most of the Everglades, water depths began WY2019 just below average historic stages. Well above average late dry season rainfall raised stages quickly and depths peaked earlier than normal. Most areas within the Everglades Water Conservation Areas (WCAs) fell below average depths by the ROS Hydrologic Patterns for WY2019 end of the wet season. Dry season depths and recession rates MFL in the WCAs were largely not conducive for optimal wading bird foraging. The stage and recession rate in Everglades National Park (ENP) were closer to optimal, and higher numbers of nesting wading birds were noted there. -
Hurricane Michael's Wildfire Implications
HURRICANE MICHAEL’S WILDFIRE IMPLICATIONS Hurricane Michael made landfall at Mexico Beach, Florida as a Category 4 hurricane on October 10, 2018. After hitting Mexico Beach, Hurricane Michael continued into Georgia as a Category 3 hurricane. Winds of 155 miles per hour left a path of destruction across a landscape primarily known for endless tree farms. A ‘pickup stick’ disaster of trees were left in the wake of the storm resulting in a fuel loading exceeding 20 times the normal fuel loading for this region of Florida and Georgia. Seventy-two million tons of trees between Florida and the Georgia border alone were downed by the storm. The fuel loading created in Hurricane Michael’s wake has left Florida unsure of the next steps and well aware of the high potential for dangerous fires. Firefighters should be aware of the issues that they may face on assignment to Florida and Georgia as no options exist to remove the trees coupled with the inability to use heavy equipment for line construction and the extreme risk to the wildland-urban interface. “On April 4th a wildfire, caused by fire escaping from a burning debris pile, quickly grew and resulted in evacuations. Officials are worried that the fire could be the start to a particularly dangerous fire season for the state. "Even a normal fire season in the Panhandle could be catastrophic because of all the fuel," Florida Forest Service Director Jim Karels said Monday, according to the Tampa Bay Times.” For the full story on this wildfire click here: https://www.tampabay.com/breaking- news/hurricane-michael-debris-fuels-500-acre-wildfire-in-florida-panhandle-20190401/ The fuels on the ground currently mean that Florida will not face normal fire behavior or seasons, firefighters not familiar with these fuel types under normal conditions should use caution and obtain a full picture of fire potential and tactics before engaging. -
Hurricane Irma Storm Review
Hurricane Irma Storm Review November 11, 2018 At Duke Energy Florida, we power more than 4 million lives Service territory includes: . Service to 1.8 million retail customers in 35 counties . 13,000 square miles . More than 5,100 miles of transmission lines and 32,000 miles of distribution lines . Owns and operates nearly 9,500 MWs of generating capacity . 76.2% gas, 21% coal, 3% renewable, 0.2%oil, 2,400 MWs Purchased Power. 2 Storm Preparedness Activities Operational preparation is a year-round activity Coordination with County EOC Officials . Transmission & Distribution Systems Inspected and . Structured Engagement and Information Maintained Sharing Before, During and After Hurricane . Storm Organizations Drilled & Prepared . Coordination with county EOC priorities . Internal and External Resource Needs Secured . Public Communications and Outreach . Response Plan Tested and Continuously Improved Storm Restoration Organization Transmission Hurricane Distribution System Preparedness System Local Governmental Coordination 3 Hurricane Irma – Resources & Logistics Resources . 12,528 Total Resources . 1,553 pre-staged in Perry, Georgia . 91 line and vegetation vendors from 25 states . Duke Energy Carolinas and Midwest crews as well as resources from Texas, New York, Louisiana, Colorado, Illinois, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Maine and Canada . 26 independent basecamps, parking/staging sites Mutual Assistance . Largest mobilization in DEF history . Mutual Assistance Agreements, executed between DEF and other utilities, ensure that resources can be timely dispatched and fairly apportioned. Southeastern Electric Exchange coordinates Mutual Assistance 4 5. Individual homes RESTORATION 3. Critical Infrastructure 2. Substations 1. Transmission Lines 4. High-density neighborhoods 5 Hurricane Irma- Restoration Irma’s track northward up the Florida peninsula Restoration Summary resulted in a broad swath of hurricane and tropical Customers Peak Customers Outage storm force winds. -
Michael's Lessons to Be Remembered
Leon County Board of County Commissioners 301 South Monroe Street, Tallahassee, Florida (850) 606-5300 www.leoncountyfl.gov YOUR TURN Michael’s Lessons to be Remembered Vincent S. Long, Leon County Administrator Just four short months ago, Hurricane Michael made landfall as a high-end Category 4 hurricane – the strongest storm to strike the Florida Panhandle in recorded history. Michael devastated Florida's Forgotten Coast, roared through Georgia, claimed lives with floodwaters in Virginia, and even impacted areas in southwest Europe. While Leon County was spared Michael's catastrophic wind damage, flooding, and loss of life, you need only look to our still-recovering neighbors to know Michael cannot and should not be forgotten. Although the County's major recovery efforts have concluded, our work continues to ensure we remember every lesson learned from Michael. After each disaster, we listen to the citizens we serve and analyze all aspects of our emergency operations through comprehensive after-action reviews. Following both Hermine and Irma, these reviews identified 205 findings and 145 specific recommendations. I am proud to report that every recommendation and enhancement was in place before Michael, preparing the County to coordinate our largest disaster response and recovery effort ever. And because of this focus on learning from disasters, in 2018, FEMA and the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes named Leon County the nation's first #HurricaneStrong community. Building on this commitment to continuous improvement, I recently presented the Michael after-action report to the Board of County Commissioners, outlining another 83 findings and 68 recommendations to help us better prepare for future storms. -
A Florida Panhandle Record-Breaking Landfall—P
These conditions are consistent with the strong 1990s featured a weaker monsoon with OLR values climate link that occurs on multidecadal time scales in the Sahel region often well above 240 W m−2 (Fig. between Atlantic hurricane activity and the strength 4.21d). These multidecadal fluctuations in monsoon of the West African monsoon (Bell and Chelliah 2006). strength coincide with opposing phases (warm and Specifically, the current Atlantic high-activity era cold, respectively) of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscil- (Fig. 4.17b) has featured an enhanced monsoon with lation (AMO; Enfield and Mestas-Nuñez 1999; Bell total OLR values below 240 W m−2 in the Sahel region, and Chelliah 2006). whereas the low-activity period of the 1980s and early SIDEBAR 4.1: HURRICANE MICHAEL: A FLORIDA PANHANDLE RECORD-BREAKING LANDFALL—P. J. KLOTZBACH The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season was perhaps best kt (21 m sď) 24 hďMXMRXIRWM½IHEXEVEXISJ¯OX ¯ ORS[RJSVX[SWMKRM½GERXLYVVMGERIW°*PSVIRGIERH1MGLEIP° m sď) 24 hď from the time that it was named until the time it that brought death and destruction to the continental United made landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida. 7XEXIW8LMWWMHIFEVJSGYWIWSR1MGLEIP[LMGL[EW½VWXREQIH While the dynamic environment in the western Caribbean on 7 October and became only the fourth continental U.S. was only marginal for Michael’s development, the thermody- landfalling Category 5 hurricane on record just three days namic environment was much more conducive than normal. later (Beven et al. 2019). Michael’s meteorological history is SSTs averaged 1°–2°C warmer than normal, with anomalously discussed, followed by a discussion of the many meteorological high levels of upper ocean heat content along Michael’s track records the storm set in its relatively short lifetime. -
The Impact of Hurricane Michael on Longleaf Pine Habitats in Florida Nicole E
www.nature.com/scientificreports OPEN The impact of Hurricane Michael on longleaf pine habitats in Florida Nicole E. Zampieri1 ✉ , Stephanie Pau1 & Daniel K. Okamoto2 Global biodiversity hotspots (GBHs) are increasingly vulnerable to human stressors such as anthropogenic climate change, which will alter the ecology of these habitats, even where protected. The longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem (LPE) of the North American Coastal Plain is a GBH where disturbances are integral for ecosystem maintenance. However, stronger storms due to climate change may be outside their historical norm. In this study, we estimate the extent of Florida LPE that was directly afected by Hurricane Michael in 2018, an unprecedented Category 5 storm. We then leveraged a unique data set in a Before-After study of four sites within this region. We used variable-area transects and generalized linear mixed-efects models to estimate tree densities and logistic regression to estimate mortality by size class. We found at least 28% of the global total remaining extent of LPE was afected in Florida alone. Mortality was highest in medium sized trees (30–45 cm dbh) and ranged from 4.6–15.4% at sites further from the storm center, but increased to 87.8% near the storm center. As the frequency and intensity of extreme events increases, management plans to mitigate climate change need to account for large-scale stochastic mortality events to preserve critical habitats. Ecological disturbances play an integral role in maintaining ecosystem structure and functioning1–3. Many eco- logical disturbances are expected to change with anthropogenic climate change4, altering the frequency, intensity, duration, and timing of events5. -
Volusia County Hurricane Irma Flood Warning Program Evaluation Report
Volusia County Hurricane Irma Flood Warning Program Evaluation Report Synopsis Hurricane Irma formed from an African Easterly Wave, more commonly known as tropical waves. It became a tropical storm on August 30 about 420 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands in the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean, and quickly attained hurricane status on August 31st while still in the far eastern Atlantic about 650 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Irma continued to gradually strengthen over the next several days as it tracked generally westward across the tropical Atlantic By the time Hurricane Irma struck Barbuda in the northern Leeward Islands around 2 A.M. on Wednesday, September 6, it was a Category 5 hurricane with 185 mph winds. Five hours later, the eye of Irma moved over St. Martin, still with 185 mph winds, while the northern eyewall pounded Anguilla. That afternoon, Irma cut a path directly through the British Virgin Islands. After the southern eyewall raked St. Thomas, Puerto Rico was largely spared as the center passed about 45 miles north of San Juan. Hurricane conditions did occur on Puerto Rico’s northeastern coast. Still a Category 5, Irma impacted portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. From Friday evening September 8th through Saturday afternoon September 9th, Irma moved along the northern coast of Cuba. Interaction with land caused Irma to weaken from a Category 5 to a Category 3 before it began to pull away from the northern coast of Cuba late Saturday afternoon. On Sunday morning, September 10th, Irma strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane as it accelerated toward the Florida Keys. -
Hurricane Michael
Hurricane Michael States of emergency have been declared for counties in Florida, Alabama, and Georgia in response to Hurricane Michael. Additionally, residents in areas of South and North Carolina which were recently flooded by Hurricane Florence are being warned of further flash flooding and wind damage which Hurricane Michael may bring. The following resources may be helpful to those preparing for Hurricane Michael: • CNN—"Hurricane Michael Threatens the Gulf": https://www.cnn.com/us/live- news/tropical-storm-hurricane-michael-florida/index.html • The Weather Channel—"Hurricane Michael Just Hours Away From a Catastrophic, Unprecedented Florida Panhandle, Big Bend Category 4 Landfall": https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-10- hurricane-michael-cat4-historic-landfall-gulf-coast-florida • ABC News—"Hurricane Michael—Follow the latest news, videos, and analysis from ABC News": https://abcnews.go.com/alerts/hurricane- michael?cid=clicksource_interests_embed • National Weather Service's National Hurricane Center is always a great resource for current information: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ • Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is a place to learn how to prepare for disaster and, if necessary, apply for disaster assistance online: https://www.fema.gov/ Below are the emergency management websites and Twitter feeds for each impacted state. These sites will provide info about preparation, storm updates and warnings, evacuation orders and open shelters. In general, states are able to provide more specific and frequent updates -
Hurricane Irma Meteorological Records
Hurricane Irma Meteorological Records/Notable Facts Recap Intensity/Day Measures - 185 mph lifetime max winds – tied with Florida Keys (1935), Gilbert (1988) and Wilma (2005) for second strongest max winds of all time in Atlantic hurricane. Allen had max winds of 190 mph in 1980 - 185 mph lifetime max winds – the strongest storm to exist in the Atlantic Ocean outside of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico on record - 185 mph max winds for 37 hours – the longest any cyclone around the globe has maintained that intensity on record. The previous record was Haiyan in the NW Pacific at 24 hours - 914 mb lifetime minimum central pressure – lowest in the Atlantic since Dean (2007) and 10th lowest in satellite era (since 1966) - 914 mb lifetime minimum central pressure – lowest pressure by an Atlantic hurricane outside of the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico on record - First Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic since Matthew (2016) and first Category 5 hurricane in the tropical Atlantic (7.5-20°N, 60-20°W) since Hugo (1989) - 3.25 day lifetime as a Category 5 hurricane – tied with Cuba (1932) for longest lifetime as Category 5 in Atlantic - 3 consecutive days as a Category 5 hurricane – the longest for an Atlantic hurricane in the satellite era (since 1966) - 12.75 named storm days – the most since Nicole (2016) and tied for 23rd most in satellite era for the Atlantic - 11.25 hurricane days – the most since Ivan (2004) and tied for 9th most in satellite era (since 1966) for the Atlantic – satellite-era record is Ginger (1971) with a whopping 19.5 hurricane days - 8.50 major hurricane days – the 2nd most in satellite era (since 1966) for the Atlantic – trailing Ivan (2004). -
HURRICANE IRMA (AL112017) 30 August–12 September 2017
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT HURRICANE IRMA (AL112017) 30 August–12 September 2017 John P. Cangialosi, Andrew S. Latto, and Robbie Berg National Hurricane Center 1 24 September 2021 VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGE OF HURRICANE IRMA WHEN IT WAS AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND MADE LANDFALL ON BARBUDA AT 0535 UTC 6 SEPTEMBER. Irma was a long-lived Cape Verde hurricane that reached category 5 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The catastrophic hurricane made seven landfalls, four of which occurred as a category 5 hurricane across the northern Caribbean Islands. Irma made landfall as a category 4 hurricane in the Florida Keys and struck southwestern Florida at category 3 intensity. Irma caused widespread devastation across the affected areas and was one of the strongest and costliest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic basin. 1 Original report date 9 March 2018. Second version on 30 May 2018 updated casualty statistics for Florida, meteorological statistics for the Florida Keys, and corrected a typo. Third version on 30 June 2018 corrected the year of the last category 5 hurricane landfall in Cuba and corrected a typo in the Casualty and Damage Statistics section. This version corrects the maximum wind gust reported at St. Croix Airport (TISX). Hurricane Irma 2 Hurricane Irma 30 AUGUST–12 SEPTEMBER 2017 SYNOPTIC HISTORY Irma originated from a tropical wave that departed the west coast of Africa on 27 August. The wave was then producing a widespread area of deep convection, which became more concentrated near the northern portion of the wave axis on 28 and 29 August. -
Hurricane Michael
Willis Re Hurricane Damage Survey Report Hurricane Michael Executive summary On October 10, Hurricane Michael, the eleventh named storm of 2018, made landfall on the Florida Panhandle as a Category 4 hurricane. More than any other, the cities of Mexico Beach, Lynn Haven and Panama City suffered extensive property damage due to Michael’s extreme winds and storm surge. Extensive infrastructure interruption ensued across the region, including power outages, obstruction of roads and contamination of potable water. Willis Re’s damage reconnaissance team spent four days assessing Michael’s damage. The objective was to research and collect examples of property damage due to wind and storm surge, and to identify elements of properties that exhibited both good and poor resistance. The team traveled nearly 1,000 miles, covering various properties exposed to the storm including in Panama City Beach, Panama City, Lynn Haven, Tyndall AFB, Mexico Beach, Port St. Joe, Apalachicola, South Port, Youngstown, Fountain, Marianna and Tallahassee in Florida; Bainbridge, Georgia; and Dothan, Alabama. In this report, we present their findings. Hurricane Michael’s estimated wind speeds on the ground for Marianna, Panama City, Lynn Haven and Mexico Beach were in the order of 120 mph to 160 mph, above the 700-year return period wind gust according to ASCE 7-10. The majority of homes in Panama City, Lynn Haven, Mexico Beach and Marianna, as to be expected, were not designed to resist 700-year return period wind gusts. In general, the direct wind damage to insured properties that we observed ranged from minor impacts to major structural failures.