3. Construction of Perceived Threats in the 2004 Government Report on Finnish Security and Defence Policy

FINNISH DEFENCE STUDIES 19 FINNISH DEFENCE STUDIES 18 FINNISH DEFENCE STUDIES 19 FINNISH THREAT PERCEPTION POLICY IN THE EARLY YEARS OF THE 21ST CENTURY Jarno Limnéll National Defence University Helsinki 2012 FINNISH DEFENCE STUDIES 1 Evolution of the Finnish Military Doctrine 1945–1985 Finnish Defence Studies is published under the auspices of Pekka Visuri, 1990. the National Defence University, and the contributions 2 Flank or Front: An Assessment of Military – Political Developments reflect the fields of research and teaching of the University. in the High North Finnish Defence Studies will occasionally feature documentation Tauno Nieminen, 1991. on Finnish Security Policy. 3 Non Offensive Defence: A Criteria Model of Military Credibility Arto Nokkala, 1991. Views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily 4 Development of Military Technology and its Impact on the Finnish imply endorsement by the National Defence University. Land Warfare Doctrine Markku Koli, 1992. Translated by Malcolm Hicks 5 The Impact of Arms Technology on Military Doctrines Pertti Salminen, 1992. Editor: 6 The Baltic Republics: A Strategic Survey Prof. Pekka Sivonen Erkki Nordberg, 1994. 7 Finlands Security in a Changing Europe: A Historial perspective Editorial Assistant: Risto E.J. Penttilä, 1994. MA Aki Aunala 8 Ålands Islands: A Strategic Survey Anders Gardberg, 1995. Editorial Board: 9 The Baltic – Sea of Changes Chairman Mikko Viitasalo and Bo Österlund, 1996. Prof. Hannu H. Kari, National Defence University 10 Air Defence in Nothern Europe Prof. (emeritus) Ohto Manninen, National Defence University Heikki Nikunen, 1997. Prof. Pekka Appelqvist, Scientific Advisory Board for Defence 11 The New Geopolitics: The World System and Nothern Europe Director of Research Juha Martelius, Ministry of Defence seen from a Modern Geopolitical Perspective Prof. Col. (ret.) Pekka Visuri Osmo Tuomi, 1998. 12 Russia‘s Geopolitical Interests in the Baltic Area Ari Puheloinen, 1999. 13 Future Operational-Tactical Level Warfare: Challenges and Opportunities for the Defence of Finland Pekka Toveri and Heikki Välivehmas, 2000. 14 Intelligence in Peace Support Operations Pasi Välimäki, 2000. Published by 15 Civilian – Military Cooperation in Crisis Management Operations Petteri Kurkinen, 2004. NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITY 16 The Soviet Plans for the North Western Theatre of Operations in 1939–1944 P.O. Box 7 Ohto Manninen, 2004. SF-00861 Helsinki FINLAND 17 Towards East or West? Defence Planning in Finland 1944–1966 Vesa Tynkkynen & Petteri Jouko, 2007. 18 Reconstructing Finnish Defence in the Post-Cold War Era Jyri Raitasalo, 2010. FINNISH DEFENCE STUDIES 19 Finnish Threat Perception Policy in the Early Years of the 21st Century Jarno Limnéll National Defence University Helsinki 2012 1 ISBN 978-951-25-2362-7 ISBN 978-951-25-2363-4 (PDF) ISSN 0788-5571 Juvenes Print Tampere 2012 2 Contents 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................5 What are the threats that face Finland? .....................................................5 Political threats ............................................................................................. 12 Constructing Finland’s threat reality ....................................................... 18 2. TOWARDS THE FINNISH THREAT REALITY ........................................ 24 Finland’s perceived external threats......................................................... 24 Finnish threat concepts ............................................................................... 32 Perceived threats in the 2001 Government Report..................................35 The procedure for drawing up the report as a constructor of threat images..................................................................................................43 3. CONSTRUCTION OF PERCEIVED THREATS IN THE 2004 GOVERNMENT REPORT ON FINNISH SECURITY AND DEFENCE POLICY ...................................................................................................................49 The political and institutional context .......................................................49 Administrative preparation of the report under political guidance .....56 Points of departure for defining threat policy ........................................ 56 Significance of the report for various branches of the administration – the struggle for power and funding ...................................................... 78 The Security Policy Monitoring Group ...............................................91 Influence of external actors on the perceived threats .......................102 Non-military threat perceptions related to the broad-based concept of security.................................................................................. 114 The military threat models ................................................................... 124 Parliamentary approval of the perceived threats ................................... 137 Conclusions ................................................................................................... 141 4. THE GOVERNMENT REPORT AT THE HEART ON FINNISH THREAT PERCEPTION POLICY ......................................................................152 REFERENCES 3 4 1. 1. Introduction Introduction WhatWhat are are the the threats threats that that face face Finland? Finland? “What“What are are the the threats threats that that face face Finland Finland?”?” is is a a simple simple enough enough question question inin itself, itself, and and one one that that is is frequently frequently asked asked both both in in the the context context of of Finnish Finnish securitysecurity policypolicy andand inin everydayeveryday conversation.conversation. InIn academicacademic terms,terms, answersanswers maymay bebe soughtsought throughthrough aa widewide varietyvariety ofof perspectivesperspectives andand approaches,approaches, as as there there are are numerous numerous ways ways of of defining defining and and interpreting interpreting securitysecurity and and the the threats threats posed posed to to it. it. It It is is a a question question that that all all those those in in positionspositions of of political political responsibility responsibility should should be be able able to to answer, answer, as as the the definingdefining and and management management of of threats threats is is a a matter matter of of crucial crucial import importanceance forfor the the state state – – it it is is a a matter matter of of its its own own security. security. Correspondingly, Correspondingly, a a vastvast number number of of widely widely differing differing opinions opinions may may exist exist on on this this topic topic in in everydayeveryday reality, reality, as as each each one one of of us us may may have have his his or or her her own own views views on on thethe subject.subject. WeWe areare constantlyconstantly arrivingarriving atat ourour ownown assumptionsassumptions regardingregarding the the world world around around us us and and the the factors factors affecting affecting it, it, which which in in turnturn serve serve to to construct construct our our understanding understanding of of the the various various threats threats that that we we face.face. People People perceive perceive reality reality through through a a variety variety of of concepts concepts and and social social processes,processes, andand atat thethe samesame time,time, ifif somesome particularparticular thingthing isis feltfelt toto constituteconstitute a a sufficiently sufficiently powerful powerful threat, threat, steps steps are are taken taken to to meet meet this this threatthreat inin thethe mannermanner feltfelt toto bebe mostmost appropriateappropriate (depending(depending onon thethe objectobject ofof thethe securitysecurity risk),risk), inin orderorder toto gaingain aa sensesense ofof securitysecurity oror 1 1 eeliminateliminate a a source source of of insecurity. insecurity. One One may may indeed indeed ask ask in in a a critical critical vein vein ThisThis study study was was written written when when the the author author was was serving serving as as lect lecturerurer of of strategy strategy at at the the Finnish Finnish NationalNational Defence Defence University, University, Department Department of of Strategic Strategic and and Defence Defence Studies. Studies. Dr.Mil.Sc, Dr.Mil.Sc, M.Soc.ScM.Soc.Sc and and Captain Captain (ret.) (ret.) Jarno Jarno Limnéll Limnéll is is currently currently working working as as Director Director of of Cyber Cyber SecuritySecurity in in Stonesoft Stonesoft Corporation. Corporation. 1 1 Another Another essential essential factor factor in in this this is is the the experience experienced dintensity intensity of of the the threat. threat. One One good good exampleexample of of this this would would be be the the technological technological threat threat scenarios scenarios associated associated with with the the transition transition to to thethe new new millennium, millennium, which which were were perceived perceived beforehand beforehand as as very very serious serious matters matters in in terms terms of of bothboth intensity intensity and and impact. impact. In In the the opin opinionion of of Johan Johan Eriksson Eriksson no no threat threat since since the the Second Second WorldWorld War War had had elicited elicited such such a acomprehensive comprehensive response response in in Sweden Sweden as as did did the the interference interference

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