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(CUWS) Outreach Journal # 1215 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal CUWS Outreach Journal 1215 13 May 2016 Feature Item: “China’s Expanding Ability to Conduct Conventional Missile Strikes on Guam.” Authored by Jordan Wilson, Policy Analyst, Security and Foreign Affairs; Published by U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Staff Research Report; May 10, 2016. http://origin.www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/Staff%20Report_China%27s%20Expand ing%20Ability%20to%20Conduct%20Conventional%20Missile%20Strikes%20on%20Guam.pdf The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) perceives that its legitimacy in the eyes of China’s citizens is based, in part, on its ability to demonstrate that it is capable of strengthening the nation and safeguarding China’s territorial interests and claims. Yet the CCP leadership believes the United States’ presence in the Asia Pacific could interfere with its ability to defend these interests and claims if a regional crisis were to arise. This concern has prompted Beijing to develop conventional missile capabilities to target U.S. military facilities in the Asia Pacific in general, and Guam in particular, in order to expand China’s options and improve its capacity to deter or deny U.S. intervention during such a crisis. Several new conventional platforms and weapons systems developed by China in recent years have increased its ability to hold U.S. forces stationed on Guam at risk in a potential conflict. Currently, accuracy limitations and platform vulnerabilities render this risk relatively low, but China’s commitment to continuing to modernize its strike capabilities indicates the risk will likely grow going forward. The current array of Chinese conventional missiles able to reach Guam includes: 1) the DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), not yet a precision strike weapon but potentially of concern in large numbers; 2) the DF-26 antiship ballistic missile (ASBM), unproven against a moving target at sea but undergoing further development; 3) air-launched land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs), launched from bombers with a high probability of being detected and intercepted by U.S. aircraft and anti-aircraft systems; 4) air-launched antiship cruise missiles (ASCMs), with the same aircraft limitation; 5) sea- launched ASCMs, of concern should the platforms be able to move into range undetected, a challenge for China’s relatively noisy submarines; and 6) sea-launched LACMs, which China does not currently field but is likely working to develop. To evaluate China’s ability to strike Guam going forward, the areas that should be monitored most closely are increased deployments of DF-26 missiles and qualitative improvements to China’s precision strike capabilities, bomber fleet, in-air refueling capability, and submarine quieting technology. U.S. Nuclear Weapons 1. U.S. Nuclear Force Must Modernize to Deter Russia and China, General says 2. USAF Abandons Sole-Source UH-60M Black Hawk Plan U.S. Counter-WMD 1. US Defense Shield Goes Live in Europe, Russia Condemns the Move 2. China Reiterates Opposition to U.S. Missile System in S. Korea Issue No.1215, 13 May 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama 3. Putin: NATO’s Missile Shield Complex Activation in Romania Complicates Global Situation U.S. Arms Control 1. East Siberian, Urals Missile Divisions to Get Sarmat ICBMs 2. Ex-US Official: Next Administration to Review Washington’s Nuclear Posture 3. Russia Developing New ICBMs Capable of Overcoming US Missile Shield — Commander 4. Problems with New Russian Ballistic Missile Cause Postponement of Tests — Source 5. Russia Could Drop START Treaty Due to New Air Defense Systems in Europe 6. Russia Starts Creating Elements of Rail-Mobile Ballistic Missile System — Source Homeland Security/The Americas 1. Chinese Ballistic Missiles Dubbed ‘Guam Killer’ Pose Increasing threat to U.S. Island, Report says Asia/Pacific 1. Chinese Nuclear Strategist Believes China’s MIRVs Are Decoys 2. Kim Jong-un Declares NK a Nuclear State 3. N.Korea 'Could Mount Nuke on Mid-Range Missile' 4. N.K. Commander Responsible for Failed Missile Tests Removed from Party Military Committee 5. Party Charter Declares N.Korea a Nuclear State 6. N. Korea Shows No Indications of Impending Nuclear Test: 38 North 7. N.Korea's Ex-Army Chief 'Not Dead' 8. Japan Has Interceptors Stand Down as North Korea Missile Threat Abates 9. N. Korea Won't Test Nukes if Peace Treaty Talks Open: Experts 10. N.Korea Deploys Missiles along Chinese Border 11. Recent N. Korean Congress Replaces over Half of Party's Central Committee Europe/Russia 1. Ex-CIA Analyst: Armenia May Have Stockpiles of Highly Radioactive Materials (exclusive) Middle East 1. Saudi Prince: Getting Nuclear Weapons Possible 2. Commander Says Iran Tests 2000km-Range Ballistic Missile 3. Defense Chief Denies Iran Tested Missile with 2000-km Range 4. Iran to Drown US Warships if Threatened: IRGC 5. S-300 Missiles Handed to Country's Air Defense System 6. Iran to Launch Homegrown “Mesbah” Satellite into Orbit 7. IAEA Reports Confirm Iran Implementing Commitments under JCPOA: Deputy FM 8. IRGC Navy Commander: Iran Sees US as Only Threat Issue No.1215, 13 May 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal India/Pakistan 1. EXPRESS EXCLUSIVE: ICBM Agni-V Test Put on 'Hold' for Modi's US Visit Commentary 1. Is Pyongyang’s No-First-Use Pledge New Stance? 2. Submerged Deterrence: China’s Struggle to Field an SSBN Fleet 3. Russia Is Building the Largest ICBM Ever (and America Should Be Worried) 4. NORTHCOM: How America Should Deal with Russia’s Nuclear “Deescalation” Doctrine Return to Top Air Force Times – Springfield, VA U.S. Nuclear Force Must Modernize to Deter Russia and China, General says By Phillip Swarts, Air Force Times May 6, 2016 The U.S. must modernize its nuclear force to remain on-par with near-peer adversaries Russia and China, a top Air Force general said Friday. Lt. Gen. Stephen “Seve” Wilson, the deputy commander of U.S. Strategic Command, said the U.S. has no choice but to modernize and update its nuclear force if it wants to continue deterring other nations. “Broadly, our nation and our Department of Defense stopped thinking about deterrence in 1992,” Wilson said during a breakfast meeting hosted by the Air Force Association's Mitchell Institute in Washington, D.C. “We need a really credible and ready and resilient nuclear force; and we’re doing just that. The department is investing a lot of money across the five-year defense plan on our nuclear force.” The Pentagon is facing a “bow wave” of nuclear modernization costs in the early 2020s, when experts expect much of the Defense Department’s budget will be taken up by replacing and upgrading air-, land- and sea-based nuclear capabilities. Wilson argued that replacing existing equipment is a critical step in allowing the U.S. to maintain its nuclear deterrence. Russia is already working on building new intercontinental ballistic missiles and air-launched cruise missiles, and China isn’t far behind. “They’re modernizing their forces,” he said. “Just last week [Russia] had another successful hypersonic glide vehicle test.” The boost-glide technology is a way of allowing missiles to achieve hypersonic speeds — generally considered to be above Mach 5 — by sending the missile to the upper reaches of the atmosphere and essentially letting the warhead fall back to Earth. Such speeds could overcome most missile defense systems and cut down on a target’s reaction time. It’s a technology both Russian and China are researching. Issue No.1215, 13 May 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama “Speed matters. Speed complicates anything,” Wilson said, adding that he could see a role for similar technology as part of a U.S. deterrence plan. “Our adversaries are doing that because it complicates any kind of defense. As technology moves forward, I think that technology will become important. As adversaries build up capability, they do it to defeat our missile defenses. We’re going to pursue that same type of technology.” Wilson said he’s also looking to the new B-21, which is expected to enter service sometime in the 2020s. “Our B-2s and our B-52s are the most flexible leg of our triad. They also provide a really significant conventional capability,” he said. “Yet look at the B-52, it’s over 60 years old. And our younger B-2 is over 25 years old. So I’m really heartened and pleased to see the progress we’re making on a new bomber, the B-21. … What bombers bring in payload, range, mass, precision and persistence are unique capabilities.” The general also noted that Navy's Ohio-class nuclear submarines will be more than 40 years old by the time of their planned retirement. “Salt water, metallurgy, physics happens. We need to replace those subs,” he said. It is a “remarkably and challenging complex world that we live in,” Wilson said, and that it’s only become more so in the past 24 months. “In February of 2014, I was addressing the AFA group in Orlando,” he said. “I didn’t talk about Ukraine, I didn’t talk about Crimea, I didn’t talk about ISIS, I didn’t talk about Boko Haram, I didn’t talk about new islands in the South China Seas … I didn’t talk about Sony cyber attacks, I didn’t talk about OPM data breaches … I didn’t talk about North Korean nuclear tests … I didn’t talk about Ebola virus or Zika … I didn’t talk about Paris attacks, I didn’t talk about Brussels attacks … I didn’t talk about any of the enormous refugee crises or migration challenges going across Europe and the Middle East.” “I didn’t talk about any of those because at the time none of that existed,” Wilson said.
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