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El Estado En La Era De La Exponencial

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El Estado En La Era De La Exponencial AUTORIDADES Dr. Alberto Ángel Fernández Presidente de la Nación Lic. Santiago Andrés Cafiero Jefe de Gabinete de Ministros Dra. Ana Gabriela Castellani Secretaria de Gestión y Empleo Público Dr. Alejandro Miguel Estévez Subsecretario del inap Oscar Oszlak EL ESTADO EN LA ERA EXPONENCIAL Oszlak, Oscar El Estado en la era exponencial / Oscar Oszlak. - 1a ed. - Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires : Instituto Nacional de la Administración Pública - INAP, 2020. Libro digital, PDF Archivo Digital: descarga ISBN 978-987-9483-38-1 1. Estado. 2. Administración Pública. 3. Políticas Públicas. I. Título. CDD 320.101 ISBN 978-987-9483-38-1 1ª edición, julio de 2020. Editado por el Instituto Nacional de Administración Pública. Av. Roque Sáenz Peña 511, CPA C1035AAA, Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, Argentina. Diseño de cubierta e interior: Edwin Mac Donald. Las ideas y planteamientos contenidos en el presente libro son de exclusiva responsa- bilidad de su autor y no comprometen la posición oficial del INAP. INAP no asume responsabilidad por la continuidad o exactitud de los URL de páginas web externas o de terceros referidas en esta publicación y no garantiza que el conteni- do de esas páginas web sea, o continúe siendo, exacta o apropiada. Los artículos contenidos en esta publicación son de libre reproducción en todo o en parte, citando la fuente. Impreso en Imprenta del Instituto Nacional de Administración Pública, en el mes de julio de 2020. Hecho el depósito que marca la Ley 11.723. Impreso en Argentina ÍNDICE PRÓLOGO DE ALEJANDRO M. ESTÉVEZ 13 PRÓLOGO DE FRANCISCO JAVIER VELÁZQUEZ LÓPEZ 17 INTRODUCCIÓN 23 TECNOLOGÍAS DISRUPTIVAS Y GESTIÓN PÚBLICA 31 La irrupción de la era exponencial 34 Pasado y futuro de las TIC 45 El Big Data se agiganta 50 Inteligencia artificial sin artificios 55 La invasión robótica 58 Robosex 66 Robótica militar: ¿quién acciona el gatillo? 69 Mi doble, el robot 70 Combinaciones y aplicaciones 73 La tercera dimensión llegó a la imprenta 73 Criptomonedas crípticas 77 Los vehículos se autonomizan: adiós al chofer 81 Internet de las cosas, cosa del Internet 85 La inteligencia urbana en acción 88 Recapitulando: tecnología y cultura en la gestión pública 97 CAPACIDADES ESTATALES FRENTE A LA DISRUPCIÓN TECNOLÓGICA 101 Paradigmas y modelos “noroccidentales” 102 La caja de herramientas del management 111 Dilemas frente al cambio exponencial 117 Impactos de las tecnologías disruptivas 128 El gobierno como plataforma 132 Discrecionalidad e inteligencia artificial en contextos complejos 148 10 EL Estado EN LA era EXPONENCIAL Política y ética frente a la robotización 161 ¿Hacer el amor, no la guerra? 166 La robótica en el mundo del trabajo 175 Robots: ¿rivales o compañeros de trabajo? 180 Impactos cuantitativos y cualitativos de la robotización 184 ¿Promover, impedir o regular la robotización? 192 Enfrentando el desempleo tecnológico 199 El futuro del trabajo como responsabilidad colectiva 206 Impresiones sobre qué hacer con la Impresión 3D 210 Criptomonedas y blockchain en el horizonte próximo 219 Cuando los vehículos conduzcan por nosotros 224 Internándonos en el Internet de las cosas 228 DISRUPCIÓN TECNOLÓGICA: UN JANO BIFRONTE 233 Test de un futuro incierto: COVID-19 233 Era exponencial: ¿Quo vadis? 240 BIBLIOGRAFÍA 247 APÉNDICE 255 PRÓlogos 13 PRÓLOGO DE ALEJANDRO M. ESTÉVEZ Es para mí un desafío prologar este libro de Oscar Oszlak, dado que me considero uno de sus discípulos. Nuestro vínculo comenzó en 1987 (como alumno de grado de la carrera de Ciencia Política – UBA) y se mantuvo durante todos estos años en distintos ámbitos e instancias. Entre otros: alumno de la Maestría de Administración Pública – UBA; ayudante de cá- tedra – UBA, expositores en los mismos Congresos, trabajos conjuntos de investigación y publicaciones compartidas. También tuve el honor –en mi carácter de Director institucional del INAP– de recibir su biblioteca personal como donación para la del Instituto Nacional de Administración Pública. El futuro se adelanta constantemente, a pesar de nosotros Hay distintas visiones del futuro: optimistas (todo va a mejorar y el mundo va a ser un lugar hermoso para vivir), pesimistas (los que piensan que va a ser todo terrible, como estar en medio de una pesadilla) y las de aquellos que carecen de la capacidad de imaginarlo. Esto se ve reflejado en las películas de ciencia ficción relacionadas con el futuro tecnológico: las pri- meras fueron utópicas y las más recientes, distópicas. Tal vez este cambio sea un llamado de atención hacia los peligros del dominio de la tecnología. El texto de Oscar Oszlak nos muestra que el futuro se acelera. Los cambios tecnológicos se producen cada vez con mayor rapidez, adelan- tándose a las previsiones más optimistas. El futuro ya está entre nosotros, pero, además, cada día llega más rápido y con cambios imprevistos y más profundos. La naturaleza “instrumental” del cambio tecnológico nos permite afir- mar que este tiene tanto aspectos “positivos” como “negativos” para la calidad de vida del ser humano. El cambio tecnológico es de tipo incremental, es decir que paso a paso va cambiando nuestra vida cotidiana (rutinas, lógicas, sentidos, lo- gros, lenguaje, teorías, aprendizajes, capacidades, comunicaciones, etc.). 14 EL Estado EN LA era EXPONENCIAL Por simple acumulación, tiene un impacto generalizado mayor aún que el de los cambios de tipo disruptivos. Este texto de Oscar nos muestra que esta tendencia “instrumental y tecnológica”, se aceleró y autonomizó. El sueño (o pesadilla) de máquinas que piensan por sí solas, ya está entre nosotros. Antiguas películas de ciencia ficción en las que se planteaba que un futuro en el que las máquinas tomaban el control del mundo no son ya una predicción artística sino una tendencia concreta en desarrollo. Hay múltiples ejemplos de esto: aspiradoras robot, ascensores que hablan y saludan, traductores en línea (que cada vez funcionan mejor), funciones de programas de computadora que permiten que se dicte un texto y este sea escrito sin tipearlo, funciones de procesadores de texto que leen lo redactado, permitiendo corregirlo con mayor facilidad. Y todos estos ejem- plos ya son viejos y fueron sobrepasados. En el “mundo de la administración pública”, el impacto tecnológico también se siente profundamente. Poco a poco, la lógica “legal” de la organización pública comienza a ser complementada y, cuando no, des- plazada, por la lógica de los sistemas. El principio organizador burocrático (la norma) comienza a perder terreno en manos del informático. En los organismos públicos que recurren permanentemente a grandes sistemas, nuestros funcionarios nos dicen “sistema mata norma”. Si el sistema nos dice que podemos hacerlo, adelante… Max Weber imaginaba que la burocratización creciente de las socie- dades iba a terminar construyendo una “jaula de hierro” (expresión que enfatiza Talcott Parsons al traducir el libro La ética protestante y el espíritu del capitalismo). Weber sostenía la racionalización creciente (mediante normas y cálculo estadístico) y el ideal de la eficientización permanente, terminarían construyendo una sociedad distinta, fría, eficiente, instrumen- talizada, racionalizada y burocratizada, en la que todos los espacios de la vida cotidiana del ser humano iban a ser “racionalizados o burocratiza- dos”. El fin del camino de la burocratización amenazaba no solamente las libertades humanas más básicas, sino también a cierto orden democrático posible. Pero la pesadilla de la burocratización extrema no fue la que cons- truyó su inexorable “jaula de hierro” –en la que ya estamos prácticamente PRÓlogos 15 encerrados– sino que fue justamente la “informatización” la que lo hizo y que viene de la mano del cambio tecnológico, el que, además, se ha acelerado. Si pudiéramos ejemplificar esta sustitución en forma de frases, Weber nos habría dicho “la burocracia tomará el control”, mientras que Oszlak nos dice “el cambio tecnológico tomó el control y ese proceso es exponencial. Y se está acelerando”. Parafraseando a Bill Clinton –agrego–: “No fue la burocratización, estúpido, fue la informatización.” La organización burocrática pierde cada día su contenido legal-racio- nal para suplantarlo por el “informático”. Si tomamos el caso argentino como ejemplo, en nuestro Estado, las dos organizaciones que tienen las bases de datos más grandes son la AFIP y la ANSeS, y quienes muchas veces tenemos que hacer trámites “en línea” vemos que el sistema no nos deja avanzar cuando no completamos algún casillero como el sistema requiere. El principio legal del “informalismo a favor del administrado” es un instituto jurídico que tiene como espíritu permitir una cierta flexibiliza- ción de la implacabilidad de la normativa, puesto que no se puede suponer que los individuos conocen todas las leyes vigentes y que, por lo tanto, los formularios a completar pueden tener casilleros vacíos o alguna infor- mación corregida al entregarlo en ventanilla o mesa de entradas, según el caso. Actualmente, “sistema mata norma”. El principio del informalismo fue acribillado por el formulario informático. Jürgen Habermas expone su preocupación sobre la preeminencia de la racionalidad instrumental, dado que a esta no le importa razonar en términos de lo justo o correcto, sino en términos de lo “técnicamente posible”. Y este es justamente uno de los grandes peligros de la era ex- ponencial, la pérdida de vista de la dimensión ética y humana. Si vemos todo desde la técnica, el ser humano deja de ser el centro, y ese lugar es ocupado por la tecnología. Ahora, me gustaría reflexionar sobre algunos diálogos que tuvimos al respecto con otros colegas como Jorge Etkin, Mariano Boiero, Pablo Bulcourf o Juan Doberti. ¿Qué sucede cuando este proceso de cambio “exponencial” se produce en administraciones públicas de capacidades institucionales intermedias o débiles? El resultado es aún peor que en las 16 EL Estado EN LA era EXPONENCIAL administraciones desarrolladas. La informatización de administraciones débiles, por un lado, puede mejorarlas parcialmente, pero también muestra claramente los “cuellos de botella” y exhibe –de una forma dramática– las inequidades e ineficiencias. La exponencialidad se siente aún más.
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