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World Economic Outlook October 2018

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World Economic Outlook October 2018 World Economic and Financial Surveys World Economic Outlook October 2018 Challenges to Steady Growth INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution ©2018 International Monetary Fund Cover and Design: Luisa Menjivar and Jorge Salazar Composition: AGS, An RR Donnelley Company Cataloging-in-Publication Data Joint Bank-Fund Library Names: International Monetary Fund. Title: World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund) Other titles: WEO | Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund) | World economic and financial surveys. Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 1980- | Semiannual | Some issues also have thematic titles. | Began with issue for May 1980. | 1981-1984: Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund, 0251-6365 | 1986-: World economic and financial surveys, 0256-6877. Identifiers: ISSN 0256-6877 (print) | ISSN 1564-5215 (online) Subjects: LCSH: Economic development—Periodicals. | International economic relations— Periodicals. | Debts, External—Periodicals. | Balance of payments—Periodicals. | International finance—Periodicals. | Economic forecasting—Periodicals. Classification: LCC HC10.W79 HC10.80 ISBN 978-1-48437-679-9 (paper) 978-1-48437-719-2 (Web PDF) 978-1-48437-735-2 (ePub) 978-1-48437-736-9 (Mobi) The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a survey by the IMF staff published twice a year, in the spring and fall. The WEO is prepared by the IMF staff and has benefited from comments and suggestions by Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on September 20, 2018. The views expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors or their national authorities. Recommended citation: International Monetary Fund. 2018. World Economic Outlook: Challenges to Steady Growth. Washington, DC, October. Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail: International Monetary Fund, Publication Services P.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USA Tel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: [email protected] www.imfbookstore.org www.elibrary.imf.org ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution CONTENTS Assumptions and Conventions ix Further Information x Data xi Preface xii Foreword xiii Executive Summary xvi Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies 1 Recent Developments and Prospects 1 Forces Shaping the Outlook 9 TheF orecast 12 Policy Priorities 23 Scenario Box 1. Global Trade Tensions 33 Box 1.1. Increasing Market Power 36 Box 1.2. Growth Outlook: Advanced Economies 39 Box 1.3. Growth Outlook: Emerging Market and Developing Economies 40 Box 1.4. InflationO utlook: Regions and Countries 42 Box 1.5. Sharp GDP Declines: Some Stylized Facts 43 Box 1.6. Predicting Recessions and Slowdowns: A Daunting Task 48 Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, with a Focus on Recent Trends in Energy Demand 52 Box 1.SF.1. TheD emand and Supply of Renewable Energy 60 References 68 Online Annexes Annex 1.SF.1. Commodity Special Feature Chapter 2. The Global Recovery 10 Years after the 2008 Financial Meltdown 71 Introduction 71 Persistent Post–Global Financial Crisis Deviations in Output 73 Policy Frameworks, Measures, and Postcrisis Output Performance 78 Summary 84 Box 2.1. TheG lobal Financial Crisis, Migration, and Fertility 86 Box 2.2. The Employment mpactI of Automation Following the Global Financial Crisis: The Case ofI ndustrial Robots 90 Box 2.3. TheR ole of Financial Sector Repair in the Speed of the Recovery 93 References 97 Online Annexes Annex 2.1. Data Sources and Country Coverage Annex 2.2. Additional Details on Quantifying Postcrisis Deviations in Activity from Precrisis Trends Annex 2.3. Robot Diffusion and Its Employment Impact in the Aftermath of the Crisis International Monetary Fund | October 2018 iii ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: CHALLENGES TO STEADY GROWTH Chapter 3. Challenges for Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets as Global Financial Conditions Normalize 101 Introduction 101 Extent of Improvements in InflationO utcomes 103 Determinants of Inflation inE merging Markets 105 Anchoring of InflationE xpectations 108 Implications of Anchoring for Monetary Policy 111 Summary and Policy Implications 116 Box 3.1. Inflation Dynamics ina Wider Group of Emerging Market and Developing Economies 118 Box 3.2. Clarity of Central Bank Communications and the Extent of Anchoring of InflationE xpectations 121 References 123 Online Annexes Annex 3.1. Data Sources and Country Coverage Annex 3.2. Determinants of Inflation Annex 3.3. Anchoring of Inflation Expectations Annex 3.4. Anchoring of Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy: Model-Based Guidance Annex 3.5. The Event Study Methodology for the Taper Tantrum Annex 3.6. Monetary Policy Reaction Function Statistical Appendix 127 Assumptions 127 What’s New 128 Data and Conventions 128 Country Notes 129 Classification of Countries 130 General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification 130 Table A. Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2017 131 Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup 132 Table C. European Union 132 Table D. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings 133 Table E. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and Low-Income Developing Countries 134 Table F. Economies with Exceptional Reporting Periods 136 Table G. Key Data Documentation 137 Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies 147 List of Tables 151 Output (Tables A1–A4) 152 Inflation( Tables A5–A7) 159 Financial Policies (Table A8) 164 Foreign Trade (Table A9) 165 Current Account Transactions (Tables A10–A12) 167 Balance of Payments and External Financing (Table A13) 174 Flow of Funds (Table A14) 178 Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Table A15) 181 World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics 183 IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, October 2018 193 iv International Monetary Fund | October 2018 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution CONTENTS Tables Table 1.1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections 14 Table 1.5.1. Episodes of Declines in GDP per Capita Exceeding 20 Percent 44 Table 1.5.2. Declines in GDP per Capita: Stylized Facts 46 Table 1.5.3. Postcrisis Outcomes and Crisis Depth 47 Table 1.SF.1. Total Demand Determinant for Baseline Specification 55 Annex Table 1.1.1. European Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 61 Annex Table 1.1.2. Asian and PacificEconomies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 62 Annex Table 1.1.3. Western Hemisphere Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 63 Annex Table 1.1.4. Commonwealth of Independent States Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 64 Annex Table 1.1.5. Middle East, North African Economies, Afghanistan, and Pakistan: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 65 Annex Table 1.1.6. Sub-Saharan African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 66 Annex Table 1.1.7. Summary of World Real per Capita Output 67 Table 2.1. Total Factor Productivity Deviations Account for Large Share of GDP per Worker Deviations 77 Table 2.2. Impact of Precrisis Conditions on 2011–13 GDP Deviations from Precrisis Trend 80 Table 2.3. Financial Sector Support and Discretionary Fiscal Stimulus in Group of Twenty Economies 83 Online Tables Annex Table 1.SF.1.1. Contribution to Electrification, 1971–2015 Annex Table 1.SF.1.2. World Energy Usage, 2015 and 1971 Annex Table 1.SF.1.3. Total Demand Determinants, by Varying Specifications Annex Table 1.SF.1.4. Primary Energy and Electricity Share Determinants Annex Table 2.1.1. Data Sources Annex Table 2.1.2. Country Coverage Annex Table 2.2.1. Banking Crises, 2007–08 Annex Table 2.2.2. Tests of Equality of Distributions of 2015–17 Deviations Annex Table 2.2.3. Probability of Banking Crisis and the Strength of Restrictions on Banking Activities Annex Table 2.2.4. Banking Crisis and Regulations: Probit Regression Annex Table 2.2.5. Impact on 2011–13 GDP Deviations from One Standard Deviation Increase in Drivers Annex Table 2.2.6. Impact on 2011–13 Investment Deviations from One Standard Deviation Increase in Drivers Annex Table 2.2.7. Impact on 2011–13 GDP Deviations from One Standard Deviation Increase in Drivers by Country Group Annex Table 2.2.8. Impact on 2015–17 GDP Deviations from One Standard Deviation Increase in Drivers Annex Table 2.3.1. Sectors, Individual Industries, and Abbreviations Used in Chapter, ISIC Revision and IFR Sector Classifications Annex Table 2.3.2. Crisis Exposure and Robot Density, Test in Median Annex Table 2.3.3. Cross-Section Difference-in-Differences Estimation of Impact of Crisis on Robot Density Annex Table 2.3.4. Ordinary Least Squares Estimation of Impact of Robot Adoption on Employment Using Output Loss Annex Table 2.3.5. Ordinary Least Squares Estimation of Impact of Robot Adoption on Employment by Medium Skills and High Output Loss Annex Table 2.3.6. Ordinary Least Squares Estimation of Impact of Robot Adoption on Employment by Labor Market Policies and Output Loss International Monetary Fund | October 2018 v ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: CHALLENGES TO STEADY GROWTH Annex Table 3.1.1. Data Sources Annex Table 3.1.2. Country Coverage Annex Table 3.2.1. Hybrid Phillips Curve: Estimation Results Annex Table 3.2.2. Hybrid Phillips Curve: Specification Augmented for External Factors Annex Table 3.2.3. Hybrid Phillips Curve: Alternative Forecast Horizon Annex Table 3.2.4. Hybrid Phillips Curve: Extensions Annex Table 3.3.1. Correlation of Relative Ranking across Anchoring Metrics, 2004–18 Annex Table 3.6.1. Estimation of Monetary Policy Rules Table B1. Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real GDP per Capita Table B2.
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