LOCAL AGGREGATE ASSESSMENT (Reporting 2013 Data)

LINCOLNSHIRE LOCAL AGGREGATE ASSESSMENT (reporting 2013 data)

November 2015

Local Aggregate Assessment

CONTENTS

1. Introduction ______3 National Planning Policy Framework ______3 Lincolnshire Minerals Local Plan ______7 Lincolnshire Minerals and Waste Local Plan ______7

2. Types of aggregate produced in Lincolnshire ______12 Sand and Gravel ______12

3. Current Situation regarding Land won Aggregates in Lincolnshire ______18 Introduction ______18 Land-won sand and gravel ______18 Crushed Rock (Limestone and Chalk) ______25

4. Recycled/Secondary Aggregate ______31

5. Marine Won Aggregates ______36

6. Future Provision ______37 Local Factors ______37 Economic Conditions ______37 Housing ______39 Infrastructure ______43 Conclusion ______43

7. Policy Considerations ______44 Sand and Gravel Requirements ______44 Crushed Rock Requirements– Limestone and Chalk ______44 Calculation of Landbanks for decision making on planning applications 45

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Tables

Table 1: National and Regional Guidelines for Aggregates Provision in England, 2005 –2020 (Mt) 5 Table 2: Apportionment of Regional Guidelines 6 Table 3: List of Sand and Gravel Sites 2015 19 Table 4: Sales figures for sand and gravel (aggregate) 2004-2013 21 Table 5: Sales figures for sand and gravel by Production Areas 22 Table 6: Permitted reserves of sand and gravel by Production Areas (as at 31st December 2013) 23 Table 7: Landbank based on Production Area and Lincolnshire as a whole (as at 31st December 2013) 24 Table 8: Distribution of Sand and Gravel (2009) 24 Table 9: List of Crushed Rock Sites, as at May 2015 25 Table 10: Sales figures for limestone extracted in Lincolnshire 27 Table 11: Total Limestone Sales in Lincolnshire for Aggregate Purposes compared to Total Crushed Rock Sales in England and the West Midlands 28 Table 12: Sales figures for Chalk 28 Table 13: Landbank for Limestone used for Aggregate Purposes (as at 31st December 2013) 29 Table 14: Distribution of Crushed Rock (2009) 30 Table 15: Estimated CD&E Arisings and Management Route in 2012 33 Table 16: Waste Management Facilities accepting Construction and Demolition Wastes in Lincolnshire 34 Table 17: Average Housing Completions and Sand and Gravel Sales by Production Zone 43

Figures

Figure 1: Minerals Production Areas in Lincolnshire 11 Figure 2: Sand & Gravel Resource in Lincolnshire 13 Figure 3: Limestone Resource in Lincolnshire 15 Figure 4: Chalk Resource in Lincolnshire 17 Figure 5: Current Sand & Gravel Quarries in Lincolnshire 20 Figure 6: Current Crushed Rock Quarries in Lincolnshire 26

Graphs

Graph 1: C&D Waste Arisings in Lincolnshire 2008 to 2012 ...... 32 Graph 2: Excavation Waste Arisings in Lincolnshire 2008 to 2012 ...... 33 Graph 3: Business Start-ups and Failures in Lincolnshire 2009 – 2013 ...... 39 Graph 4: Housing completions in Lincolnshire 2004/5 – 2013/14 ...... 42 Graph 5: Sand and Gravel Sales in Lincolnshire from 2004 - 2013 ...... 42

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1. Introduction

1.1. The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) requires an annual Local Aggregate Assessment (LAA) to be produced by Mineral Planning Authorities in order to plan for a steady and adequate supply of aggregates.

1.2. This document is the Local Aggregate Assessment for the County of Lincolnshire. It is the third time that a LAA has been prepared for Lincolnshire. The LAA sets out current supply of and demand for aggregates in the County and indicates the provision that will be needed in order to ensure that Lincolnshire continues to make an appropriate contribution to the steady and adequate supply of aggregates. Revised Local Aggregate Assessments will be produced annually as part of the Local Plan monitoring procedures.

National Planning Policy Framework

1.3. The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) states that mineral planning authorities should plan for a steady and adequate supply of aggregates by:

– preparing an annual Local Aggregate Assessment, either individually or jointly by agreement with another or other mineral planning authorities, based on a rolling average of 10 years sales data and other relevant local information, and an assessment of all supply options (including marine dredged, secondary and recycled sources); – Participating in the operation of an Aggregate Working Party and taking the advice of that Party into account when preparing their Local Aggregate Assessment; – making provision for the land-won and other elements of their Local Aggregate Assessment in their mineral plans taking account of the advice of the Aggregate Working Parties and the National Aggregate Co-ordinating Group as appropriate. Such provision should take the form of specific sites, preferred areas and/or areas of search and locational criteria as appropriate; – taking account of published National and Sub National Guidelines on future provision which should be used as a guideline when planning for the future demand for and supply of aggregates; – using landbanks of aggregate minerals reserves principally as an indicator of the security of aggregate minerals supply, and to indicate the additional provision that needs to be made for new aggregate extraction and alternative supplies in mineral plans; – making provision for the maintenance of landbanks of at least 7 years for sand and gravel and at least 10 years for crushed rock, whilst ensuring that the capacity of operations to supply a wide range of materials is not compromised. Longer periods may be appropriate to take account of the need to supply a range of types of aggregates, locations of permitted reserves relative to markets, and productive capacity of permitted sites;

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– ensuring that large landbanks bound up in very few sites do not stifle competition; and – calculating and maintaining separate landbanks for any aggregate materials of a specific type or quality which have a distinct and separate market.

National and Regional Guidelines

1.4. For over 35 years, geographical imbalances in the occurrence of suitable natural aggregate resources and the areas where they are needed, have been met through the Managed Aggregate Supply System (MASS). The underpinning concept behind MASS is that Mineral Planning Authorities which have adequate resources of aggregates make an appropriate contribution to national as well as local supply. Government guidance on the MASS is set out in the Government’s online Planning Practice Guidance. This indicates the Government considers there is still a role for forecasts of aggregate provision in England and that it will continue to publish National and Sub-national guidelines and continue to make assumptions on the likely contribution of demand for alternatives, imports and marine dredged sand and gravel.

1.5. Prior to the publication of the NPPF, national aggregate policy was set out by the Government in MPS1, which required Mineral Planning Authorities (MPAs) to make provision for the sub-regional apportionment of the National and Regional Guidelines for Aggregate Provision 2005-20201, which was most recently updated in June 2009. The key regional guideline figures are reproduced below in Table 1 along with the national figures for comparison.

1.6. The 2009 Guidelines required the East Midlands region to provide 500mt of crushed rock, 174mt of sand and gravel, and 110mt of alternative materials between 2005 and 2020.

1 National and regional guidelines for aggregates provision in England 2005-2020 (DCLG, Jun 2009)

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Table 1: National and Regional Guidelines for Aggregates Provision in England, 2005 –2020 (Mt)

Regions Guidelines for land- Assumptions Mt won production in Region Land– Land- Marine Alternative Net won Sand won Sand & Materials Imports to & Gravel Crushed Gravel (a) England Rock South East 195 25 121 130 31 England London 18 0 72 95 12 East of England 236 8 14 117 7 East Midlands 174 500 0 110 0 West Midlands 165 82 0 100 23 South West 85 412 12 142 5 North West 52 154 15 117 55 Yorkshire & the 78 212 5 133 3 Humber North East 24 99 20 50 0 England 1028 1492 259 993 136 (a) aggregate materials other than land or marine won

1.7. The East Midlands Aggregates Working Party (EMAWP) was asked to produce regional guidelines indicating how the demand identified in the 2009 Guidelines could be met from sources within each region. The sub- regional apportionment (SRA) of the guidelines, was agreed by the EMAWP on 8th January 2010. The details of this sub-regional apportionment are set out in Table 2. EMAWP recommended that the revised National and Regional Guidelines should be accepted in principle and that, among other matters, the revised SRA should be based on the average of the past 7 years sales (2001-2007), expressed as a percentage share of regional sales.

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Table 2: Apportionment of Regional Guidelines

2005 – 2020 (a)

CRUSHED ROCK (b) Mt Annual Provision (c) Derbys 139.9 8.74 PDNP 65.0 4.05 Leics 265.5 16.6 Lincs 18.0 1.1 Northants 4.9 0.3 Notts 1.5 0.1 Rutland 5.1 0.3

Total Rock 500.0 31.2

SAND & GRAVEL Derbys 23.8 1.49 PDNP Leics 24.2 1.51 Lincs 52.5 3.28 Northants 12.5 0.78 Notts 61.0 3.81

Total Sand & Gravel 174.0 10.87 TOTAL AGGREGATES 674.0 42.07 (a) Total derived from Guidelines for Aggregates Provision (2009) N.B. Only refers to aggregate uses (b) Includes Limestone and Igneous Rock. Chalk and Sandstone were not included in the apportionment exercise (c) Indicative only; calculated as an annual average over the total period

1.8. Taking everything into account, the EMAWP considered that a revised SRA based on the average of the past 7 years sales, expressed as a percentage share of regional sales, to be more robust than using a five year series. The EMAWP commented that the proposed SRA had been derived using a reasonably straightforward method which is both transparent and logical. The final outcome was felt to be fair across the region.

1.9. The SRA would require Lincolnshire to provide 52.5 million tonnes of sand and gravel and 18 million tonnes of crushed rock (limestone) from 2005 to 2020. This amounts to an average of about 3.28 million tonnes of sand and gravel and 1.1 million tonnes of crushed rock (limestone) each year over this 16-year period. This represents a 7% increase in sand and gravel and a 33% decrease in crushed rock (limestone) from the previous apportionment.

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1.10. The SRA report prepared by EMRAWP contained the following assessment of the situation in respect of sand and gravel within Lincolnshire:

“In Lincolnshire sales over the 7 year period 2001-2007 have shown more fluctuations than other areas but these have been consistently either side of 30% of total regional production, with the highest and lowest levels being 34% and 28% in 2006 and 2007 respectively. In other years the range has been smaller. The proportion of regional share has not changed on average since the 2004 SRA. Sales have also been consistently close to the 2004 SRA. There is thus a high degree of confidence that the previous SRA was accurate and that sales figures based on the average of the past 7 years are robust. No evidence has been put forward to suggest that there might be a justification for any adjustment to the Baseline SRA. The proposed SRA would be some 0.22Mtpa higher than the 2004 SRA but this can be accounted for by the higher regional apportionment for sand and gravel and by the calculation method which is based on tonnage figures expressed as a rounded percentage rather than a pure percentage. Overall the proposed SRA is therefore considered to be reasonable, realistic and clearly justified by the evidence.”

1.11. At its meeting on 5th March 2010, the East Midlands Regional Assembly’s Housing, Planning & Transport Joint Board subsequently agreed that the revised SRA figures be included in the draft replacement Regional Plan Policies for submission to the Secretary of State. The Partial Review was submitted to the Secretary of State on 26th March 2010 as a Revised Draft East Midlands Regional Plan. However the revised draft plan was not progressed following the Secretary of State’s decision to revoke Regional Spatial Strategies (RSS) on 6th July 2010. The revised SRA figures have consequently not been subject to any formal examination.

Lincolnshire Minerals Local Plan

1.12. The Minerals Local Plan (MLP) was adopted in 1991 and most of its policies have been saved. The Plan divides the County into three Production Zones for sand and gravel, namely Lincoln/Trent Valley, Central Lincolnshire and South Lincolnshire. Within each Production Zone the MLP identifies Areas of Search where the industry is expected to direct its attention. In terms of developing new sites, Policy M3 states that ‘there will be a presumption in favour of extensions to existing workings with any new quarry normally only permitted where this replaces an existing quarry which has become worked out’.

Lincolnshire Minerals and Waste Local Plan

1.13. The County Council is in the process of reviewing planning policies dealing with mineral extraction and waste management. The Lincolnshire Minerals and Waste Local Plan will eventually replace the Minerals Local Plan (1991) and the Waste Local Plan (2006).

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1.14. The new plan is being prepared in two parts:

 Core Strategy and Development Management Policies. The Core Strategy will set out the key principles to guide the future winning and working of minerals and the form of waste management development in the County. The Development Management Policies set out the criteria against which planning applications for minerals and waste development will be considered.

 Site Locations. This will include specific proposals and policies for the provision of land for mineral and waste development and will identify sites where future minerals development is expected to take place.

1.15. To date, the County Council has been concentrating on the preparation of the Core Strategy and Development Management Policies document:

 An Issues and Options paper was published in 2008. This document set out a range of key “Issues and Options” that the County Council considered are likely to influence the future strategy for minerals and waste planning in Lincolnshire.

 A revised Issues and Options paper was published in 2009 setting out the spatial options for minerals and waste development in more detail. A ‘call for sites’ exercise was carried out in conjunction with this paper.

 In June 2010, the Council’s Preferred Strategy for future minerals and waste development was published for consultation. In conjunction with this consultation, a separate consultation was carried out on the minerals and waste sites that were put forward together with a proposed site assessment methodology.

 A Draft Core Strategy and Development Management Policies document was published for consultation in November 2013.

 The County Council consulted on a Pre-Submission Draft of the Core Strategy and Development Management Policies document in January 2015.

 The Core Strategy and Development Management Policies document was submitted to the Secretary of State in June 2015 for Examination.

1.16. Each representation that was duly made during the 6 weeks statutory consultation period for the pre-submission draft Core Strategy and Development Management Policies document has been considered and taken into account in the submission documentation. This document will be examined by an independent Inspector for its legal compliance and ‘soundness’ (ie whether it is in-line with Government guidelines). Any

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representations made on the pre-submission draft document and a summary of the main issues raised have been submitted to the Secretary of State for consideration. Hearing sessions were held in October 2015 as part of this Examination.

1.17. In relation to sand and gravel, the proposed policy position set out in the pre-submission draft Core Strategy and Development Management Policies document is that the County Council will make provision for the release of 68.88 million tonnes (3.28 million tonnes per annum) during the plan period (2011-2031) through a subsequent Site Locations Development Plan document.

1.18. This release of sites will focus on extensions to existing sites and new sites only to replace existing sites that will become exhausted during the plan period. The requirements will be divided between the three existing Production Zones based upon their relative contributions to sand and gravel sales and anticipated growth. The “production zones” will be renamed “production areas”, but will be identical in all other respects. These production areas are broadly assumed to serve the following District Council areas:

 Lincoln/Trent Valley Production Area (Lincoln, North Kesteven and West Lindsey Districts)  Central Production Area (Boston and East Lindsey Districts); and  South Production Area (South Holland and South Kesteven Districts). Figure 1 below shows the proposed Spatial Strategy for Sand and Gravel in the new Local Plan and shows the three production areas.

1.19. It is planned to split the provision of sand and gravel between the production areas as follows:

 Lincoln/Trent Valley, 35.28Mt (1.68Mt per annum);  Central Lincolnshire, 12.6Mt (0.6Mt per annum); and  South Lincolnshire, 21Mt (1Mt per annum).

1.20. Since the Core Strategy and Development Management Policies document was submitted to the Secretary of State for Examination, the County Council has reviewed the level of provision of sand and gravel set out in that document for two reasons:

 firstly, sales of sand and gravel have consistently fallen well below the annual average level set by the SRA since it was agreed by the EMAWP in January 2010; and

 secondly, the County does not have any up-to-date local plans that plan for the high levels of growth that might otherwise justify allocating sufficient sand and gravel resources to meet the SRA.

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1.21. The County Council has therefore asked the inspector to consider a modification to the draft Core Strategy and Development Management Policies document to base the level of provision of sand and gravel during the period 2014 -2031 (inclusive) on the average sales over the past 10 years (2004-2013) in line with the NPPF.

1.22. This would reduce the level of provision required for the County as a whole to 42.66Mt (2.37 Mt per annum), which would be divided between the three Production Areas based on their relative contributions to sand and gravel sales in the County over the 10 year period (2004-2013) as follows:

 Lincoln/Trent Valley, 18.00Mt (1.00Mt per annum);  Central Lincolnshire, 9.00Mt (0.50Mt per annum); and  South Lincolnshire, 15.66Mt (0.87Mt per annum).

1.23. For Limestone and Chalk the proposed policy position set out in the pre- submission draft Core Strategy and Development Management Policies document is that there are sufficient reserves available to meet the requirements during the plan period and therefore it is not proposed to allocate new sites.

1.24. The County Council has begun work on the Site Locations Development Plan Document. A Regulation 18 Draft document will go out to consultation in Autumn 2015.

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Figure 1: Minerals Production Areas in Lincolnshire

Source: Core Strategy and Development Management Policies, April 2015

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2. Types of aggregate produced in Lincolnshire

Sand and Gravel

2.1. Sand and gravel are defined on the basis of particle size as opposed to composition. The term ‘gravel’ is used to describe material coarser than 4mm, with a maximum size of 40mm. ‘Sand’ is described as material that is finer, but coarser than 0.063mm. Material with a particle size of less than 0.063mm is classed as ‘fines’.

2.2. Lincolnshire has sand and gravel resources in fluvial (river), glacial, coastal and wind-blown deposits. During the 1970s the BGS (previously the IGS – Institute of Geological Sciences) carried out extensive sand and gravel resource assessments for much of Lincolnshire and the results were published in a series of Mineral Assessment Reports (MARs).

2.3. In 2010, the County Council commissioned the BGS to reassess the sand and gravel resources identified in the MARs and identify potential resources in areas of the county not covered by the MARs. The subsequent Lincolnshire Sand and Gravel Assessment (External Report CR/10/049) indicates that the principal areas containing the highest quality resources are:

 fluvial deposits in the Trent Valley north of Gainsborough;  fluvial deposits lying between the Rivers Trent and Witham, to the west of Lincoln;  an area of fluvial deposits underlying the floodplain of the River Witham south-east of Lincoln;  spreads of river terrace deposits and glaciofluvial deposits around Woodhall Spa; and  fluvial deposits around Market Deeping.

2.4. Of these, the resources around Market Deeping, west of Lincoln and around Woodhall Spa have been, or are currently, worked. The thick and extensive sand and gravel resources that underlie the Witham floodplain southeast of Lincoln have not been exploited. The report indicates that resources in the Trent Valley north of Gainsborough are also thick, extensive and likely to be of good quality but are not currently worked.

2.5. Outside the area of the county that had been the subject of MAR surveys, the BGS report states that available data proved too sparse and unfavourably distributed to systematically identify and classify sand and gravel resources. However, such data as was available indicated that suitable resources may exist in fluvial deposits around Sleaford, between Billingborough and Dowsby and near Long Bennington.

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Figure 2: Sand & Gravel Resource in Lincolnshire

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Limestone

2.6. A variety of hard rocks are, when crushed, suitable for use as aggregates. Their technical suitability for different applications depends on their physical characteristics, such as crushing strength and resistance to impact and abrasion. Higher quality aggregates are required for coating with bitumen for road surfacing, or for mixing with cement to produce concrete. For applications, such as constructional fill and drainage media, with less demanding specifications, lower quality materials are acceptable.

2.7. Lincolnshire has limited resources of rock suitable for use as crushed rock aggregate. The Lincolnshire Limestone Formation of Middle Jurassic age (Inferior Oolite) is the major limestone unit in Lincolnshire. Its outcrop runs north to south through Grantham and Lincoln, forming the prominent escarpment of the Lincoln Edge.

2.8. Crushed Lincolnshire Limestone provides aggregates, which are of relatively low strength and with poor resistance to frost damage (they have moderate to high values of water absorption). They are, therefore, generally only suitable for use as constructional fill or sub-base roadstone material.

2.9. Limestone is currently worked for aggregates at a number of small to medium-sized quarries, mostly between Stamford and Lincoln. Several also produce agricultural lime and small amounts of building stone.

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Figure 3: Limestone Resource in Lincolnshire

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Chalk

2.10. Chalk is a relatively soft, fine-grained, white limestone, consisting mostly of the debris from planktonic algae. The Chalk in Lincolnshire is divided into five distinct formations: the Ferriby Chalk, with a red-coloured chalk at the base; the Hunstanton Formation, or Red Chalk; the Welton Chalk; the Burnham Chalk; and the Flamborough Chalk. The Burnham and Welton chalks are of higher purity (generally >97 per cent CaCO3), while the overlying Flamborough Chalk and the underlying Ferriby Chalk are mainly of medium purity (>93% CaCO3). The Burnham and Flamborough chalks are concealed beneath drift which thickens towards the coast.

2.11. Chalk has been extracted within Lincolnshire for both aggregate and industrial purposes, including iron making, lime production for steel manufacture and industrial fillers, for constructional purposes and agricultural use. The Chalk in Lincolnshire is harder and contains less moisture than the Chalk in southern England and can therefore be used for aggregate purposes, but only for less demanding applications, such as fill and sub-base roadstone.

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Figure 4: Chalk Resource in Lincolnshire

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3. Current Situation regarding Land won Aggregates in Lincolnshire

Introduction

3.1. Production and sales data for aggregate minerals is collected on an annual basis, through an aggregate survey undertaken on behalf of the East Midlands Aggregates Working Party (EMAWP). Annually published EMAWP reports present data on production and reserves for the County back to the early 1990s. The Report of Annual Survey 2013 provides data for 2013 and this has been used for the purpose of this Local Aggregate Assessment.

3.2. Every fourth year Aggregate Working Parties are committed to conducting a major in-depth survey Aggregate Monitoring Survey. This includes the collection of data on the distribution of sales. The last such survey was for 2009.

Land-won sand and gravel

Production sites

3.3. There were 13 sites in Lincolnshire at the end of 2013 as listed in the AWP Report 2013, excluding sites classified as dormant under the Environmental Act 1995 of the Planning and Compensation Act 1991. The County has more up to date information on existing sites as set out in the Core Strategy and Development Management Policies document. The list set out in Table 3 below reflects the position of the existing sand and gravel sites as of May 2015 (excluding dormant sites).

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Table 3: List of Sand and Gravel Sites 2015

Site District Whisby North Kesteven Norton Disney Quarry North Kesteven Norton Bottoms North Kesteven Swinderby* (1) North Kesteven North Hykham (Landfill)* North Kesteven Park Farm, Tattershall Thorpe East Lindsey Kirkby on Bain Quarry East Lindsey West Deeping Quarry South Kesteven Manor (Farm) Pit, Baston South Kesteven Red Barn, Castle Bytham South Kesteven Baston No1 South Kesteven Baston No2 South Kesteven King Street, West Deeping* South Kesteven North Kelsey Road, Caistor West Lindsey Kettleby Quarry, Bigby (2) West Lindsey * inactive (1) A new site that will shortly replace the Norton Disney Quarry (2) This Quarry straddles the administrative boundary with North Lincolnshire, with the plant site/access located in Lincolnshire. Although all the remaining permitted reserves are located in North Lincolnshire, it is included in the list because the operator has put forward further extensions to the quarry in Lincolnshire for consideration for allocation in the Site Locations DPD.

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Figure 5: Current Sand & Gravel Quarries in Lincolnshire

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Sales

3.4. The County’s production of sand and gravel amounted to 1.88 million tonnes (Mt) in 2013. Over the 10-year period 2004-13, average sales were 2.37Mt per annum (see Table 4 below). During this period, the highest annual sales figure was 3.37Mt in 2006. For the following three years sales fell progressively to just under 2mt in 2009 before stabilising at around 1.9mt. (See Table 4 below). The economic recession has impacted on sand and gravel sales, with the 10-year average over 0.6Mt per annum lower than sales at the start of the period. The sub- regional apportionment approved by EMAWP in 2010 (3.28 million tonnes) is significantly higher (c.38%) than the 10-year average of sand and gravel sales in the County over the period 2004-13.

3.5. Sand and gravel production within Lincolnshire represents a significant proportion of the total output in the East Midlands (some 31.1% over the period 2004-13). The County is the second highest producer of sand and gravel in the region after Nottinghamshire, although the difference between production levels between the two Counties has narrowed in recent years.

Table 4: Sales figures for sand and gravel (aggregate) 2004- 2013

Year England* East Lincolnshire Lincolnshire (Mt) Midlands (Mt) as % of Region (Mt) Regional Sales 2004 74.48 10.29 3.0 29.2% 2005 70.84 10.07 3.20 31.8% 2006 69.03 9.91 3.37 34% 2007 67.14 8.91 2.47 27.8% 2008 61.67 7.54 2.27 29.7% 2009 46.53 5.5 1.99 36.2% 2010 45.33 5.83 1.79 30.7% 2011 47.04 6.23 1.92 30.8% 2012 42.91 5.89 1.85 31.4% 2013 45.70 6.04 1.88 31.1% Average 57.06 7.62 2.37 31.1% Source: EMAWP Surveys /*Business Monitor PA1007

3.6. National minerals guidance on the managed aggregate supply system also requires MPAs to look at the last three years of sales to identify the general trend of demand as part of the consideration of whether it might be appropriate to increase supply. The last three years of sales in Lincolnshire (2011 – 2013) show a broad levelling of the decline seen previously.

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3.7. In the past, the regional sand and gravel apportionment target has been divided up and apportioned to the three main areas of production within Lincolnshire, namely Lincoln-Trent Valley, Central Lincolnshire and South Lincolnshire. The three production areas reflect the large size of the County. In general, the Lincoln/Trent valley and South Lincolnshire Production Areas support their nearby major urban areas with the Central Lincolnshire Area supplying remaining parts of the County.

3.8. Table 5 below indicates sales from the 3 production areas over the last 10 years and the average proportion of sales from each area. Over this period, sales from Central Lincolnshire have generally been around 0.5Mt per annum, while sales from South Lincolnshire have been around 0.87Mt per annum. Sales from Lincoln/Trent Valley have averaged 0.99mt per annum.

Table 5: Sales figures for sand and gravel by Production Areas

Year Lincolnshire Lincoln/Trent % Central % South % (Mt) Valley Lincs. Lincs. 2004 3.0 1.408 46.9 0.624 20.8 0.963 32.1 2005 3.20 1.601 50.0 0.581 18.2 1.014 31.7 2006 3.37 1.393 41.3 0.654 19.4 1.324 39.3 2007 2.47 0.968 39.2 0.604 24.4 0.901 36.5 2008 2.27 0.522 23.0 0.636 28.0 1.116 49.0 2009 1.99 0.732 36.8 0.539 27.1 0.716 36.0 2010 1.79 0.815 45.5 0.352 19.7 0.621 34.7 2011 1.92 0.871 45.4 0.370 19.3 0.675 35.2 2012 1.85 0.809 43.7 0.348 18.8 0.692 37.4 2013 1.88 0.877 46.6 0.348 18.5 0.658 35.0 Average 2.37 1.000 42.2 0.505 21.3 0.867 36.6 Source: EMAWP Surveys

Landbank

3.9. It is estimated that permitted reserves for sand and gravel as at 31st December 2013 totalled some 22.9Mt. Of these reserves, some 14.5Mt were at active sites and 8.4Mt at inactive sites. These reserves exclude dormant sites. Permitted reserves within the 3 production areas are shown in Table 6 below.

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Table 6: Permitted reserves of sand and gravel by Production Areas (as at 31st December 2013)

Production Areas Active Inactive Total (Mt) (Mt) (Mt) Lincoln/Trent Valley 5.451 5.785 11.236 Central Lincs 4.230 0 4.230 South Lincs 4.84 2.580 7.428 Lincolnshire 14.529 8.365 22.894 Source: EMAWP AM2013 Survey

3.10. The level of permitted reserves at the end of 2013 represents a County landbank of 12.2 years based on average sales over the 3-year period 2010-12; 9.7 years based on average sales over the last 10 years; and 7.0 years based on the 2005-2020 apportionment figures (see Table 7). At a sub county level:

 Lincoln/Trent Valley has sufficient permitted reserves for 13.2 years based on average sales over the 3-year period 2011-13, 11.2 years based on average sales over the last 10 years and 6.7 years based on the apportionment;  Central Lincolnshire has 12.5 years based on average sales over the 3-year period 2011-13, 8.9 years based on average sales over the last 10 years and 7.5 years based on the apportionment; and  South Lincolnshire has 11.7 years based on average sales over 3 years, 9.0 years based on average sales over the last 10 years and 7.8 years based on the apportionment.

3.11. The landbank therefore met or exceeded the 7 year minimum for the County as a whole based on all three methods of calculation. At a sub- county level the landbank was above the 7 year minimum except in the Lincoln/Trent Valley Production Area where it was slightly below the 7 year minimum based on the apportionment (See Table 7).

3.12. Since the beginning of 2014, two further planning permissions for the extraction of sand and gravel have been granted. These are within the South Lincolnshire Production Area, comprising an extension to the Manor Pit Quarry (0.628 Mt) and an extension to the Baston No 2 Quarry (2.25 Mt). These add 1.2 years to the County landbank based on average sales over the past 10 years and 0.9 year based on the apportionment. With respect to this Production Area, they add 3.3 years based on average sales and 2.9 years based on the apportionment.

3.13. In addition two further applications have been submitted, but not yet determined. The first is an application to extend the Whisby Quarry (2.2 Mt) in the Lincoln/Trent Valley Production Area. This has been approved in principle subject to the completion of a S106 Planning Obligation. In due course this will add 0.9 year to the County landbank based on average sales over the past 10 years and 0.7 year based on the apportionment. With respect to this Production Area, it will add 2.2 years based on average sales and 1.3 years based on the apportionment. The second is an application to extend the Kirkby on Bain Quarry (3.5 Mt) in

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the Central Lincolnshire Production Area that has not yet been considered.

Table 7: Landbank based on Production Area and Lincolnshire as a whole (as at 31st December 2013)

3-year 10-year Total Landbank Landbank Landbank Average Average Permitted based on based on 3- based on 10- Sales Sales (Mt) Reserves 2005-2020 year average year average (Mt) (Mt) apportionment sales sales Lincoln/Trent 0.85 1.00 11.236 6.7 years* 13.2 years 11.2 years Valley Central Lincs 0.36 0.51 4.514 7.5 years* 12.5 years 8.9 years South Lincs 0.67 0.87 7.824 7.8 years* 11.7 years 9.0 years

Lincolnshire 1.88 2.37 22.894 7.0 years 12.2years 9.7years * Based on the sub-county split of the apportionment planned in the Lincolnshire Minerals and Waste Local Plan: Core Strategy and Development Management Policies (Pre-Submission Draft) (see paragraph 1.19).

Exports and imports

3.14. Information on markets served is viewed by the industry as being commercially sensitive and the only source is the AM monitoring survey. According to the latest distribution data from 20092, 76% of sand and gravel sales from Lincolnshire operations were to destinations within the County. This is the most up-to-date data available on flows of aggregate materials. The largest markets outside the county were Yorkshire and Humberside (7.7%) and Nottinghamshire (6.4%). The destinations for sand and gravel extracted within the County in 2009 are shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Distribution of Sand and Gravel (2009)

Destination Tonnes Percentage Lincolnshire 1,515,900 76.3 Derbyshire 10,872 0.5 Nottinghamshire 127,665 6.4 Leicestershire/Rutland 3,766 0.2 Northamptonshire 2,500 0.1 East Midlands (unknown) 42,204 2.1 West Midlands 924 - East of England 92,165 4.6 North West 443 - Yorkshire & Humberside 153,129 7.7

2 Collation of the results of the 2009 Aggregate Minerals Survey for England and Wales’ (DCLG October 2011)

Local Aggregate Assessment

South East 40 - Unknown 36,421 1.8 Source: EMAWP AM09 Survey

3.15. Imports of land won sand and gravel into Lincolnshire totalled 503,000 tonnes in 2009 according to the ‘‘Collation of the results of the 2009 Aggregate Minerals Survey for England and Wales’ (DCLG October 2011). Lincolnshire was therefore a net importer of sand and gravel, some 33,000 tonnes in 2009.

3.16. Of the 1.986Mt of land won sand and gravel produced in Lincolnshire in 2009, 1,516Mt (76%) of sales were to destinations within Lincolnshire, 9% of sales were to elsewhere in the East Midlands and 12% sold beyond the East Midlands.

Crushed Rock (Limestone and Chalk)

Production sites

3.17. There were 23 sites in Lincolnshire at the end of 2013 as listed in the AWP Report 2013 excluding sites classified as dormant under the Environment Act 1995 or the Planning and Compensation Act 1991. The County has more up to date information on the existing sites. The list set out in Table 9 is modified version of the site list set out in Core Strategy and Development Management Policies (Pre-Submission Draft) document, to exclude sites that exclusively produce building stone and sites where the planning permissions have ceased to have effect.

Table 9: List of Crushed Rock Sites, as at May 2015

Quarry Name District Material South Thoresby East Lindsey Chalk Highfield, Welton le Marsh East Lindsey Chalk Tetford Hill * East Lindsey Chalk Longwood North Kesteven Limestone Brauncewell North Kesteven Limestone Dunston North Kesteven Limestone ^ Metheringham Heath North Kesteven Limestone ^ Harmston* North Kesteven Limestone Castle (Ancaster) South Kesteven Limestone ^ South Witham No 1 South Kesteven Limestone South Witham No 2 South Kesteven Limestone Creeton South Kesteven Limestone ^ Station Quarry, Great Ponton South Kesteven Limestone ^ Little Ponton* South Kesteven Limestone Colsterworth* South Kesteven Limestone Colsterworth Triangle* South Kesteven Limestone Ropsley* South Kesteven Limestone Copper Hill, Ancaster South Kesteven Limestone ^ Nettleton Bottoms* West Lindsey Chalk * inactive ^ also produces building stone

Local Aggregate Assessment

Figure 6: Current Crushed Rock Quarries in Lincolnshire

Local Aggregate Assessment

Sales

3.18. The County’s production of limestone (aggregate and non aggregate) amounted to 0.66Mt in 2013 of which 0.45Mt was for aggregate purposes. Over the 10-year period 2004-13, average total sales were 0.76Mt per annum (see Table 10 below). During this period, the highest annual sales figure was 1.046Mt in 2004. Sales have generally declined since that date.

Table 10: Sales figures for limestone extracted in Lincolnshire

Year Aggregate Non-Aggregate Total (Mt) Sales (Mt) Sales (Mt) 2004 0.959 0.087 1.046 2005 0.709 0.121 0.830 2006 0.810 0.073 0.883 2007 0.990 0.038 1.028 2008 0.519 0.052 0.571 2009 0.461 0.169 0.630 2010 0.446 0.141 0.587 2011 0.387 0.266 0.653 2012 0.510 0.193 0.703 2013 0.451 0.215 0.665 Average 0.624 0.135 0.759 Source: EMAWP Surveys

3.19. Most of the limestone is used for aggregate purposes (about 68% in 2013). Over the 10-year period 2003-14, the proportion of limestone extracted for aggregate purposes was approximately 82%. The relatively low output of limestone as an aggregate reflects the limitations upon its uses. Sales of limestone for aggregate purposes from Lincolnshire operations only represent a small proportion of the total output in the East Midlands (some 6.6% over the period 2004-13): see Table 11 below.

Local Aggregate Assessment

Table 11: Total Limestone Sales in Lincolnshire for Aggregate Purposes compared to Total Crushed Rock Sales in England and the West Midlands

Year England East Lincolnshire Lincolnshire (Mt)^ Midlands Limestone as % of Region aggregate Regional (Mt)* sales Crushed (Mt) Rock Sales 2004 85.65 28.14 0.959 3.4% 2005 80.59 28.79 0.709 2.5% 2006 83.72 29.69 0.810 2.7% 2007 82.92 30.72 0.990 3.2% 2008 75.18 26.79 0.519 1.9% 2009 59.67 21.54 0.461 2.1% 2010 50.11 21.18 0.446 2.1% 2011 57.74 20.90 0.387 1.9% 2012 52.98 19.74 0.510 2.6% 2013 53.42 22.17 0.451 2.0% Average 68.20 24.96 0.624 2.5% Sources: * Table 3, EM Report of Annual Survey 2012 ^ Table 7 Crushed Rock (Extractors sales by end use and area of origin – Business Monitors PAS1007 2003-2012

3.20. Table 12 shows sales of chalk within the County over the period 2004-13. During this period, the last major chalk producer (Singleton Birch Ltd) ceased mineral extraction in the County, focussing production at their operations in North Lincolnshire. As a result chalk sales went into rapid decline from 2007 to 2010. Although no sales data is available since 2010, from the limited activities observed within the County's chalk quarries, it would appear that production remains at a very low level.

Table 12: Sales figures for Chalk

Year Aggregate Use Non-Aggregate Use Total 2004 c 51,045 c 2005 102,445 14,535 116,980 2006 232,961 10,618 243,579 2007 248,752 0 248,752 2008 70,530 2,120 72,650 2009 40,000 10,465 50,465 2010 0 4,694 4,694 2011 c 0 c 2012 c 0 c 2013 c 0 c c: confidential Source: EMAWP Surveys

Local Aggregate Assessment

Landbank

3.21. It is estimated that permitted reserves of limestone for aggregate purposes as at 31st December 2013 totalled some 40.24Mt. These reserves exclude dormant sites. The level of permitted reserves for aggregate purposes at the end of 2013 represents a County landbank of 90 years based on average sales over the 3-year period 2010-12; 64 years based on average sales over the last ten years; and 36 years based on the 2005-2020 crushed rock apportionment figure of 1.1Mt per annum (See Table 13).

3.22. Between 1st January 2014 and 31st May 2015 four applications were granted for the extraction of limestone comprising:

 An application to extend the copper Hill Quarry, Ancaster (1.5 Mt of limestone for use as both aggregate and building stone);  An application to extend the South Witham Quarry (0.4Mt of aggregate);  An Application to extend the Holywell Quarry (488,000 tonnes of building stone); and  An application for a small extension of the Glebe Quarry, Ancaster (1250-1500 tonnes of building stone).

Table 13: Landbank for Limestone used for Aggregate Purposes (as at 31st December 2013) 3-year 10-year Total Landbank Landbank Landbank Average Average Permitted based on based on based on Sales Sales Reserves 3-year 10-year 2005 – (Mt) (Mt) (Mt) average average 2020 sales sales apportion ment

Lincolnshire 0.449 0.628 40.246 89.6 years 64 years 36.5 years

3.23. It is estimated that permitted reserves for chalk reserves as at 31st December 2012 were 6.22Mt, 2.60Mt of which were at active sites and 3.62Mt at inactive sites. Although in recent years chalk sales figures have not been available, it is estimated that the reserves would be sufficient for 41 years based on average sales over the 7 year period 2004-10 for which data is available in the past 10 years, and over 146 years based on sales over the last three-year period for which data is available (2008- 10).

Exports and imports

3.24. According to the latest distribution data from 2009, 85% of sales from crushed rock operations in Lincolnshire were to destinations within the County. The largest markets outside the county were elsewhere in the East Midlands. The destinations for limestone extracted for aggregate purposes within the County in 2009 are shown in Table 14.

Local Aggregate Assessment

Table 14: Distribution of Crushed Rock (2009)

Destination Tonnes % Lincolnshire 323149 84.6 Leicestershire/Rutland 5000 1.3 East Midlands 40000 10.5 (unknown) West Midlands 8787 2.3 East of England 5000 1.3 Source: EMAWP AM09 Survey

3.25. Imports of crushed rock into Lincolnshire totalled 317,000 tonnes in 2009 according to the ‘Collation of the results of the 2009 Aggregate Minerals Survey for England and Wales’ (DCLG October 2011). Lincolnshire was therefore a net importer of crushed rock, some 258,000 tonnes in 2009. Imports were primarily from elsewhere in the East Midlands: Derbyshire (94,700 tonnes); Peak District National Park (39,863 tonnes); Leicestershire and Rutland (114,425 tonnes); and Northants (5,000 tonnes).

3.26. The crushed rock produced in Lincolnshire is of a relatively low strength and with poor resistance to frost damage. It is therefore generally only suitable for use as construction fill or sub-base roadstone material. Higher quality aggregates suitable for road surfacing or for concrete production must therefore be imported. It is therefore likely that Lincolnshire will continue to rely on imported, higher quality crushed rock to supply projects that require this material.

3.27. Given this, communication and co-operation with those authorities that import primary aggregates into Lincolnshire is important. Work has been carried out during the preparation of the Local Plan Core Strategy and Development Management Policy document.

3.28. The County Council recognises the need to work across local authority boundaries and beyond Lincolnshire to determine if there is likely to be any major changes in demand for or changes in movement of sand and gravel in to and out of the County over the plan period so that this can be taken into account. Therefore engagement has taken place with neighbouring authorities, other authorities within the East and West Midlands and authorities further afield where a strategic relationship has been identified.

Local Aggregate Assessment

4. Recycled/Secondary Aggregate

4.1. Despite difficulties in obtaining reliable data (even for a single year, let alone an historic series), the National and Regional Guidelines for Aggregates Provision have set figures for “Alternative Aggregates” (aggregate materials other than land or marine won) which regions should aim to achieve. The latest Guidelines propose that the East Midlands provide some 110 million tonnes of alternative aggregates for the period 2005 –2020.

4.2. A number of national surveys have been conducted to measure and gain an understanding of the extent to which recycled and secondary materials have been used. The most recent study, undertaken by Capita Symonds for 2005 arisings, was published in February 2007. The survey methodology was very similar to that used in earlier surveys undertaken for 2001 and 2003.

4.3. Lessons learned during the earlier surveys mean that the findings of the 2005 survey were considerably more robust at regional level. However, at sub-regional level, they remained unreliable. The estimate for the production of recycled aggregate in Lincolnshire and Nottinghamshire in 2005 was 1,732,133 tonnes. In addition, 172,151 tonnes of recycled soil (excluding topsoil) was produced and re-used.

Recycled Aggregate (Construction, Demolition and Excavation waste)

4.4. The Council has updated its Waste Needs Assessment to inform the MWLP (Waste Need Assessment 2014). Part of this work involved providing a ‘best estimate’ of Construction, Demolition and Excavation (CD&E) waste arising in the County. Although there are a number of caveats regarding how data on this waste stream is recorded, an estimate of total arisings has been made. A large proportion of C&D waste is recycled on construction sites using mobile processing plant.

4.5. Graph 1 shows the total estimated primary C&D arisings, and demonstrates a significant decline between 2008 to 2011 with a rise in 2012. The relatively high level of arisings in 2008 is largely the result of a deposit of mixed construction waste at one landfill site in Lincolnshire3. However, the primary C&D arising is not truly indicative of the quantity of C&D waste that needs to be managed if Lincolnshire wishes to deliver a net self-sufficient outcome for managing this waste stream. Many transfer stations and some quarries contain equipment for reprocessing materials such as waste rubble, bricks, sand, gravel, asphalt. The

3 Brauncewell Quarries recorded 294,831 tonnes of mixed construction waste deposited in 2008 reducing to 84,318 tonnes in 2009 and 46,748 tonnes in 2010 after which no deposits are recorded

Local Aggregate Assessment

primary arisings referred to above are mainly managed at transfer station (56%) and treatment facilities (32%). Around 90% of that material (200,000 tonnes) is then sent to other sites as secondary arisings for recycling. Therefore the total amount of C&D arisings managed at permitted facilities is in the order of 450,000 tonnes.

4.6. Graph 2 shows the total estimated quantity of excavation waste arisings in Lincolnshire between 2008 and 2012.

4.7. Table 15 shows the baseline arisings and management routes, including recycling, for CD&E waste in 2012 as has been used in the Waste Need Assessment modelling.

Graph 1: C&D Waste Arisings in Lincolnshire 2008 to 2012

(Source: Environment Agency Waste Data Interrogator 2012)

Local Aggregate Assessment

Graph 2: Excavation Waste Arisings in Lincolnshire 2008 to 2012

(Source: Environment Agency Waste Data Interrogator 2012)

Table 15: Estimated CD&E Arisings and Management Route in 2012

Estimated Recycling Transfer Treatment Landfill Baseline Arisings Tonnes C&D 450,000 91% 56% 32% 12% (200,000) 140,000 80,000 30,000 secondary arisings Excavation 500,000 1% 39% 19% 41% 5,000 195,000 95,000 205,000 (Source: Environment Agency Waste Data Interrogator, 2012)

4.8. Operational C&D waste management sites within Lincolnshire are set out in Table 16 below. Whilst there may be other transfer facilities managing C&D waste, Table 16 shows the main sites dealing with this waste stream.

Local Aggregate Assessment

Table 16: Waste Management Facilities accepting Construction and Demolition Wastes in Lincolnshire

Site District Facility Type Lindum Group Ltd West Lindsey Transfer stations (hazardous) Monksview Demolition Ltd South Holland Transfer stations (hazardous) Sid Dennis & Sons Ltd East Lindsey Transfer stations (hazardous) The Warehouse, Riverside Boston Transfer stations (hazardous) Industrial Estate Westville Farm Transfer Station East Lindsey Transfer stations (hazardous) Bourne Skip Hire & Recycling South Kesteven Transfer stations (inert) G B M Waste Management East Lindsey Transfer stations (inert) Len Kirk Plant Hire North Kesteven Transfer stations (inert) Manor Pit Quarry South Kesteven Transfer stations (inert) Brauncewell Quarry Transfer North Kesteven Recycling (C&D) Station Dunston Quarry North Kesteven Recycling (C&D) Highfield Quarry East Lindsey Recycling (C&D) South Witham Quarry South Kesteven Recycling (C&D) Whisby Quarry South Kesteven Recycling (C&D) Harmston Quarry North Kesteven Recycling (C&D) Kirkby on Bain Quarry East Lindsey Recycling (C&D) Longwood Quarry North Kesteven Recycling (C&D) Mansgate East Lindsey Recycling (C&D) Park Farm Quarry Tattershall East Lindsey Recycling (C&D) South Thoresby Quarry East Lindsey Recycling (C&D) Swinderby Quarry North Kesteven Recycling (C&D) Kettleby Quarry East Lindsey Recycling (C&D) North Hykeham Quarry North Kesteven Recycling (C&D) Colsterworth South Kesteven Recycling (C&D) Copper Hill South Kesteven Recycling (C&D) Brauncewell Quarry North Kesteven Landfill (inert) Colsterworth Triangle South Kesteven Landfill (inert) Creeton South Kesteven Landfill (inert) Harmston Quarry North Kesteven Landfill (inert) Norton Bottoms Quarry North Kesteven Landfill (inert) South Thoresby East Lyndsey Landfill (inert) South Witham (east) South Kesteven Landfill (inert) Whisby Quarry North Kesteven Landfill (inert)

Local Aggregate Assessment

4.9. In addition to the above permanent C&D waste management facilities, some inert waste is deposited at the following non-hazardous Landfills. In 2012, 69,456 tonnes of inert waste was deposited at:

 Boston Landfill (Boston)

 Colsterworth Landfill (South Kesteven)

 Gainsborough Landfill (West Lindsey)

 Kirkby on Bain Landfill (East Lindsey)

 Leadenham Landfill (North Kesteven)

 Middlemarsh Landfill (East Lindsey)

 North Hykenham Landfill (North Kesteven)

4.10. Whilst the data currently available is not considered to be suitably robust to enable a recycling target to be set for Lincolnshire, the adopted Lincolnshire Waste Local Plan (2006) does set out criteria for the development of construction and demolition waste facilities. Thus, Policy WLP5 states:

Planning permission will be granted for construction and demolition waste recycling facilities provided they are:-

(i) located within quarries or their associated processing plant sites and would not prevent the restoration of such; or

(ii) associated with an existing waste management facility; or

(iii) directly associated with a major demolition project; or

(iv) located within areas designated for general industrial uses (class b2 of the use classes order); and

(v) meet the criteria set out in policy WLP21; and

(vi) demonstrate the arrangements for the disposal of the residual waste from the recycling operations.

4.11. The 2006 Lincolnshire Waste Local Plan will be replaced by the Lincolnshire Minerals and Waste Local Plan (MWLP).

4.12. The general trend in respect of CD&E waste management is for decreasing disposals of CD&E waste to landfills, quarries and exempt facilities and an increasing diversion of waste, especially through recycling. This will lead to a greater provision of CD&E waste as recycled aggregate assisting the Council in working towards future recycled aggregate production requirements, and achieving a reduction in the demand for primary aggregate.

Local Aggregate Assessment

5. Marine Won Aggregates

5.1. The National and Regional Guidelines for Aggregates Provision 2005 to 2020 assume marine aggregates will not contribute to meeting demand in the East Midlands sub region.

5.2. However, the coast off Lincolnshire is within the Humber Dredging Area. There are 10 dredging licences in place in this area permitted for the removal 4.8 million tonnes of material per annum. In 2013 1.53 million tonnes of material was dredged from the permitted licensed tonnage and another 0.61 million tonnes was specifically dredged for beach nourishment purposes4. Of the material extracted from permitted tonnages, 61% of the material extracted was delivered to mainland Europe, 26% to the Humber and 13% to the Thames Estuary5. Material landing in the region was delivered to wharfs in Blythe and on the River Tyne, Tees and Humber4. Therefore no material was commercially landed in Lincolnshire. The 2014 marine aggregate statistics report a similar pattern with 1.57 million tonnes material was dredged from the permitted licensed tonnage and another 0.62 million tonnes was specifically dredged for beach nourishment purposes6

5.3. This may reflect that there are limited landing opportunities for marine aggregates in the County. Navigable wharfage is limited to Boston and although there are wharfs at Gainsborough, Sutton Bridge and Fossdyke they are not equipped for landing aggregates.

5.4. Whilst marine aggregates have not been part of the aggregate supply to Lincolnshire they have been used for coastal defence works in the County. For example marine dredged material has been used as part of the Environment Agency’s Lincshore Sea Defence scheme which is underway to protect the coast between Mablethorpe and Skegness. In 2013, 611,787 tonnes of marine material was used as part of this scheme4 and in 2014, 620,422 tonnes6.

5.5. It is expected that the situation described above will continue. Lincolnshire is therefore not expecting marine aggregate to make a contribution to supply options in the area or to be landed in the County. However, it is recognised that there is will be continued activity off the

4 Marine Aggregates, Summary of Statistics 2013, Crown Estate

5 Marine Aggregates Capability and Portfolio 2014, Crown Estates (http://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/media/389767/ei-marine-aggregates-2014.pdf

6) Marine Aggregates, Summary of Statistics 2014, Crown Estate

Local Aggregate Assessment

coast Lincolnshire that is transported to other areas both in the UK and abroad and make a contribution to their supply options. 6. Future Provision

Local Factors

6.1. The NPPF requires that the annual Local Aggregate Assessment looks at and takes into account other relevant local information. This section discusses the local level considerations for Lincolnshire.

Economic Conditions

Employment Levels

6.2. The employment sector with the most relevance to minerals planning is the construction industry. This is an important industry to Lincolnshire’s economy in terms of number of people employed. Overall growth in the construction industry from 2000 – 2008 was 42% (7,000 jobs), outpacing the national growth rate of 13% for this sector. However, the construction industry was one of the activities worse affected by the recession, with employment declining 18% in this sector between 2008 and 2010 (falling from 23,361 jobs to 19,317 jobs)7.

6.3. Despite the challenges associated with the recession, the Lincolnshire Economic Assessment, published in 2011, anticipates that the economy will grow by 2.3% per year to 2030, with employment growth in the construction industry anticipated as being 16% over this time.

6.4. Sand and gravel sales from 2004 to 2006 (inclusive) were broadly stable or rising slightly. This corresponds to the period of time when there was growth in the construction industry. However, following this there was a decline in sand and gravel sales, which corresponds to a decline in the construction industry that also occurred at this time. The draft LAA (2015, reporting 2013 data) concluded from this data that it could be expected that aggregate requirements will continue to follow trends in the construction industry. Whilst this may be the case, the construction industry is not expected to return to pre-recession levels until some point beyond 2030. Sand and gravel sales in 2013 (1.88 million tonnes) were still some way below the 10 year average and the SRA. Whilst the previous LAA suggested that the SRA would be the most appropriate method for future provision, given the continued depressed state of the market it is unlikely the SRA will be achieved for some time. It is therefore considered that provision based on average sales over the past 10 years would in fact be sufficient to support growth.

7 Learning from Our Place in the Global Economy, University of Lincoln and Rose Regeneration (April 2011)

Local Aggregate Assessment

6.5. Sales of crushed rock (limestone) for aggregate purposes between 2004- 2007 appear to be broadly stable ranging from just over 0.7Mt to just under 1MT, and averaging about 0.86Mt over this four year period. However in 2008 there was a significant decline to just over 0.5Mt, and since then sales have averaged about 0.45Mt. Although the recession has affected demand, halving the annual sales, the analysis of the 10 year sales data does not provide a full picture of the trend in sales. When viewed over a longer time frame, sales of limestone have generally been in decline since the year 2000 when sales reached 1.5Mt. This suggests that the decline in sales is not as closely linked to the onset of the recession and the decline in the construction industry as the decline in sales of sand and gravel. Rather, it likely that it reflects the nature of the material extracted in Lincolnshire and the limitation of its uses. Therefore, whilst it is reasonable to expect some level of growth as the economy improves, the correlation and rate of change may not be a responsive as sand and gravel.

Business Start Ups

6.6. A comparison of business start ups against business failures shows that in 2009, business failures exceeded start-ups for the first time in many years suggesting that economic conditions at this time were particularly difficult8. This was in line with national and regional trends.

6.7. However, national data released in 2013 shows that there has been a move towards economic recovery with more new start-ups than business failures in 2012 and 2013.

6.8. Graph 3 compares the number of start-ups against business failures in Lincolnshire from 2009 – 2013. This appears to follow the general national trend with more start-ups than failures since 2011.

6.9. The comparison of business start ups against failures shows that there have been peaks and troughs in the local economy over the past few years in line with the national economy. The draft LAA (2015, reporting 2013 data) concluded that it would not therefore be sensible to base future minerals provision solely on historic sales data because these difficult economic times might skew the data. However, further analysis suggests that using the average sales for the previous 10 years may actually be the more prudent approach. As sales data from the past 10 years includes both recession and more prosperous years, it is likely to show a more balanced prediction of required provision. This is particularly the case given that the market continues to be somewhat depressed with sand and gravel sales of 1.88 million tonnes in 2013,

8 Lincolnshire: A Local Economic Assessment, Lincolnshire Research Observatory (2011)

Local Aggregate Assessment

some way below the 10-year average of 2.37 million tonnes and even further below the SRA of 3.28 million tonnes.

Graph 3: Business Start-ups and Failures in Lincolnshire 2009 – 2013

Source: Business Demography 2013, ONS (released November 2014)

Housing

Completions/Targets

6.10. Table 17 sets out housing completions over the period 2003/04 to 2011/12 by Districts within the County. The average completion rate in the County over this period was 3422 dwellings. There has been a gradual reduction in the number of housing completions across Lincolnshire since 2006/07. This is shown in Graph 4. This corresponds to the reduction in sand and gravel sales over this time as shown in Graph 5. Although sand and gravel sales are not directly linked to housing completions, there is a general link and anticipated future housing provision could be used as an indicator of the potential scale of future sand and gravel extraction that may be required.

Future Planned Housing – position taken in LAA 2013

6.11. The first LAA (published 2013) concluded that anticipated future housing provision could be used as an indicator of the potential scale of future sand and gravel extraction that may be required. Following an analysis of the housing growth information available at that time it was concluded that there was anticipated to be 9.8% annual increase in housing compared to average completion rates 2001-2010. This percentage increase was then applied to the average annual sand and gravel sales between 2001 and 2010 and provided an indication that sand and gravel production would need to be in the order of 3 million tonnes per annum.

Local Aggregate Assessment

Based on this it is was concluded that it was reasonable to assume that the future provision of sand and gravel should be greater than the average of 10-years sales in order to provide sufficient material to satisfy the growth aspirations within the County.

6.12. In addition, analysis was also carried to see whether the proposed housing growth in each district when grouped by the 3 production areas (Lincoln/Trent Valley; Central Lincolnshire and South Lincolnshire) could be used to inform the proportion of the overall sand and gravel requirement for each Production Area. Whilst it was acknowledged that the exercise was less robust than that for the County as a whole, it was useful in indicating the continued relevance of the Production Areas and the potential scale of future provision that may be appropriate for each. The exercise demonstrated that it would be reasonable to calculate the requirement in the Central and South Production Areas on the 10 year average sales given that housing completion levels were not expected to be significantly different to the period 2001-2010 in these areas. In contrast given the significant level of growth was predicated in the Lincoln/Trent Valley Production Area, it was considered reasonable to make a higher level of provision within this area over and above the 10 year average sales.

6.13. However, since this work was carried out the position in relation to housing numbers has changed including the withdrawal of the Joint Draft Plans for both Central and South East Lincolnshire. As a result there is not a consistent set of housing figures for the County as whole and some Districts are at an early stage of establishing the Objectively Assessed Need for Housing for their area. Therefore, the overall growth rate for housing in Lincolnshire is being reviewed and the analysis set out in the 2013 LAA cannot be carried forward.

Future Planning Housing Growth – current position

6.14. Planning Practice Guidance states that Housing Projections published by the Department for Communities and Local Government should provide the starting point for estimating overall housing need and provide an indication of whether growth is expected in an area. The Household Interim Projections 2012 to 2037 (published February 2015) predict a 20% overall change in households across the County in this period with 3,000 households per annum average change. These levels are higher than those set out the Household Interim Projections 2011 to 2021 as reported the 2014 LAA. Any future house building will need to be supported through sufficient aggregate provision and therefore, although there is limited data available at this time, it would be prudent to continue to provide an allocation of sand and gravel reserves sufficient to meet a potential future increase in demand from house building. However, work is still ongoing on local plans and the associated Strategic Housing Market Assessments in order to determine their full objectively assessed housing needs for both market and affordable housing in accordance of paragraph 47 of NPPF. Given this, a figure for future aggregate provision based on the past 10 years sales would be more realistic than the SRA.

Local Aggregate Assessment

6.15. As there is not a consistent set of housing growth figures for the County, an analysis has been carried out of housing completions grouped by Production Zone against the 10 year average sales date for each production zone to see if there is any correlation.

6.16. The assumption has been made that the production zones serve the following District Council areas:

 Lincoln/Trent Valley Production Area: Lincoln, North Kesteven and West Lindsey Districts  Central Lincolnshire Production Area: Boston and East Lindsey Districts  South Lincolnshire Production Area: South Holland and South Kesteven Districts.

6.17. Table 18 shows that the Lincoln/Trent Valley has the highest proportion of average housing completions at 46%, followed by South Lincolnshire at 32% and Central Lincolnshire 22%. These figures have some correlation with the proportion of the 10 year average sales in each Production Zone.

6.18. The exercise demonstrates that, in the absence of a comprehensive set of housing growth figures, historic trends provide an indication of the proportion of housing that may be delivered in each Production Area. It also shows that the trends in the proportion of average sales of sand and gravel by Production Area follow similar patterns. In both cases the greatest proportion of activity is occurring in the Lincoln Trent Valley Production Area, followed by South Lincolnshire and then the Central Lincolnshire Production Area. Therefore, there is evidence to support the continued split of the overall sand and gravel requirement by Production Area and for the Lincoln/Trent Valley Production Area to take the highest level of provision.

Local Aggregate Assessment

Graph 4: Housing completions in Lincolnshire 2004/5 – 2013/14

Source: Lincolnshire Research Observatory

Graph 5: Sand and Gravel Sales in Lincolnshire from 2004 - 2013

Source: EMAWP Surveys

Local Aggregate Assessment

Table 17: Average Housing Completions and Sand and Gravel Sales by Production Zone

Production Average Percentage of 10 year Percentage Zone annual overall average average of total 10 housing housing sand and year average completions completions gravel sand and 2004-14 sales (MT) gravel sales for Lincolnshire Lincoln/ 1396 46% 0.99 42% Trent Valley Central 661 22% 0.51 21%

South 997 32% 0.87 37%

TOTAL 3054 100% 2.37 100%

Infrastructure

6.19. The National Infrastructure Plan sets out a strategy for meeting the infrastructure needs of the UK economy. The 2011 Autumn Statement announced a programme of investment in projects to support the infrastructure investment priorities identified in the Plan. The only major transport projects identified within Lincolnshire at the national level were the Lincoln Eastern Bypass. An updated National Infrastructure Plan was published by the Government in December 2012.

6.20. At the local level there are some locally significant future infrastructure projects anticipated and in the pipeline which could have a significant impact on demand for aggregates. Projects include the Lincoln East West Link Road, the Grantham Relief Road, Spalding Western Relief Road, Boston Distributor Road, Sleaford Relief Road and the Boston Barrier Flood Defence.

Conclusion

6.21. The above data on employment levels, construction industry employment rates, business closure rates and housing completions shows that there has been an economic decline in Lincolnshire since 2007/08 in line with the UK recession. This is mirrored by a decline in sales over this time. However, there are signs of an economic recovery and aspirations for growth in Lincolnshire. Whilst it might be expected that there will be a corresponding increase in aggregate sales in line with this, the most recent (2013) sand and gravel sales were 1.88 million tonnes. This is some way below both the SRA and average sales for the previous 10 years. It is not clear when aggregate sales figures will return to pre- recession levels. The previous LAA suggested that to base the requirement for future aggregate provision on previous sales figures alone could underestimate the requirement as it has been skewed by recent economic conditions. However, even with the predicted growth in the economy, further review of the evidence, including the lack of up to

Local Aggregate Assessment

date local plans, means that the evidence pointing towards using the SRA is not as strong. Instead, it is considered to be more appropriate to base the landbank on the average of the last 10 years sales data (2004- 2013) which will include both higher years and recession, providing a more balanced indication of future provision. Given the fact that aggregate production currently remains at the lower levels, this is now considered to be a more realistic and achievable figure that will provide sufficient material to satisfy growth within the County.

7. Policy Considerations

7.1. The NPPF states that the annual Local Aggregate Assessment should be based on a rolling average of 10 years sales data and other relevant local information, but also taking account of published National and Sub National Guidelines and the advice of the Aggregates Working Party. With the abolition of regional targets, Mineral Planning Authorities are now able to make a local decision on its provision of land won aggregates instead of using the sub regional apportionment, provided the decision is based upon sound evidence. The County Council has therefore examined the reserve and sales figures set out in chapter 3, trends in recycled and secondary aggregates along with other local information discussed in chapter 5 in order to ascertain the likely scale of future requirements and the level of aggregate production the County needs to plan for.

Sand and Gravel Requirements

7.2. The draft LAA (2015, reporting 2013 data) concluded from the information and evidence that it would not be prudent to base future sand and gravel provision on historic 10-year supply figures. However, a subsequent review in light of a lack of up to date plans and the continued market depression suggests a different approach would now be more advisable. The 10-year average would take into account recession and growth years to provide a more realistic reflection of what is happening in the County. Therefore, Lincolnshire should plan for the 10-year apportionment figure of 2.37 million tonnes per annum for sand and gravel.

7.3. The evidence also supports the continued use of the 3 Production Areas (Lincoln/Trent Valley, Central and South) for splitting the overall requirement in the County. It suggests that the Lincoln/Trent Valley area should be taking the greatest proportion of the requirement followed by South Lincolnshire and then Central Lincolnshire. The exact proportion of the split is a policy choice to be developed through the Lincolnshire Minerals and Waste Local Plan: Core Strategy and Development Policies Document. The proposed approach is discussed in paragraph 1.19 of this LAA.

Crushed Rock Requirements– Limestone and Chalk

7.4. The analysis of the sales and reserves figures for limestone used for aggregate purposes, as set out in chapter 3, demonstrates that there are more than sufficient reserves of crushed rock in the longer term either

Local Aggregate Assessment

based the 10 year average sales figure of 0.62Mt per annum or the SRA figure of 1.1Mt. Also, taking into account the increasing use of recycled and secondary materials as a substitute for primary crushed rock products and the quality of material in Lincolnshire, demand may not rise as quickly as for sand and gravel. Future demand may be more akin to current sales trends. This indicates that there is no need at the current time to plan to provide additional reserves of limestone for aggregate purposes given the current long term surplus.

7.5. In relation to chalk reserves it is also estimated that there are sufficient reserves to meet requirements in the longer term. This also indicates that there is no need at the current time to plan to provide additional reserves of chalk for aggregate purposes.

Calculation of Landbanks for decision making on planning applications

7.6. This LAA has set out the landbanks using both the SRA and the 10 year average sales data. It is however also the role of the LAA to state how landbanks will be calculated for decision and plan making – including decisions on planning applications.

7.7. The calculation of the landbank using the SRA assumes the annual output will be even year on year and at the level of annual requirement. It does not take account of fluctuations in demand. However, the 10 year average sales data is the indicator of trends in aggregate demand. It is considered that this data can provide a more realistic calculation of landbanks for the purpose of decision making on planning applications as it takes into account market trends, providing a mechanism to ensure the steady supply and release of new reserves in a phased manner in line with the demand.

7.8. For Lincolnshire, if landbanks were to be calculated for this purpose using the SRA, there is the risk that this will not be truly reflective of the County’s requirements in the earlier years of the plan. At the current time given that the annual SRA figures are much higher than the 10 year average sales, it may take time for sales to reach these anticipated levels (or they may not reach them at all) and this will impact upon the timing of when reserves will be required.

7.9. Therefore, the 10 year average sales data should be used in calculating the landbanks for Lincolnshire, given that this will be reflective of the supply and demand position at the current time and in the short to medium term. This will ensure a steady and adequate supply of material that is appropriately phased.