Risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma in Chronic Pancreatitis D Malka, P Hammel, F Maire, P Rufat, I Madeira, F Pessione, P Lévy, P Ruszniewski
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849 PANCREATIC DISEASE Gut: first published as 10.1136/gut.51.6.849 on 1 December 2002. Downloaded from Risk of pancreatic adenocarcinoma in chronic pancreatitis D Malka, P Hammel, F Maire, P Rufat, I Madeira, F Pessione, P Lévy, P Ruszniewski ............................................................................................................................. Gut 2002;51:849–852 Background: The risk of pancreatic cancer in patients with chronic pancreatitis (CP) is difficult to assess. Previous studies, mostly case control studies or studies relying on data case registers, reported See end of article for authors’ affiliations relative risks varying from 2.3 to 18.5. ....................... Methods: We studied a prospective, single centre, medical-surgical cohort of 373 consecutive patients (322 (86%) men, median age 40 years) with proven CP (alcoholic origin 85%) and a follow up of at Correspondence to: Professor P Ruszniewski, least two years (median follow up 9.2 years; range 2.0–34.8) in order to exclude pancreatitis reveal- Service de Gastro- ing pancreatic cancer. We calculated the age and sex standardised incidence ratio (SIR) as the ratio Entérologie, Hôpital of the number of observed cases of pancreatic cancer in this cohort to the number of expected cases, Beaujon, AP-Hp, 100 as provided by the French National Cancer Register. Boulevard du Général Results: Four cases of pancreatic adenocarcinoma (1.1% of patients) were observed in 3437 patient Leclerc, F-92118 Clichy Cedex, France; years (expected number of cases 0.15; SIR 26.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 7.3–68.3; philippe.ruszniewski@ p=0.00002). In a second analysis in which patients lost to follow up were considered to be followed bjn.ap-hop-paris.fr up until the end point without having developed pancreatic adenocarcinoma (4762 patient years), SIR Accepted for publication was 19.0 (CI 5.2–48.8; p=0.00007). 25 June 2002 Conclusion: Patients with CP have a markedly increased risk of pancreatic cancer compared with the ....................... general population. he aetiology of pancreatic cancer remains largely elusive. x ray, computed tomography scan, ultrasonography, or Smoking, the only consistent environmental risk factor, is endoscopic ultrasonography; (2) moderate to marked associated with an approximately threefold increase in pancreatic ductal lesions on endoscopic retrograde or intra- T 1 15 the risk of pancreatic cancer, and less than 5% of cases of operative pancreatography (“Cambridge” criteria) ; (3) typi- pancreatic cancer are thought to be related to familial cal histology on an adequate surgical pancreatic specimen. CP http://gut.bmj.com/ (genetic) factors.2 was considered to be due to alcohol when alcohol intake Anecdotal case reports and short case control studies have exceeded 60 g/day for at least two years in the absence of other suggested that chronic pancreatitis (CP) is a risk factor for causes; CP was considered “idiopathic” when no cause was pancreatic cancer.3–8 Recently, several studies have reinforced found. The date of clinical onset of CP was defined as the date this hypothesis.9–14 However, the risk of pancreatic cancer in when the first manifestation clearly attributable to CP patients with CP varied widely from 2.311 to 18.514 in these occurred. The diagnosis of pancreatic adenocarcinoma had to studies, raising methodological concerns. In most, the diagno- be proved in all cases by histological examination of surgical on September 28, 2021 by guest. Protected copyright. sis of pancreatic cancer (mostly without histological confirma- specimens or fine needle biopsy. Special attention was paid to tion) or pancreatitis relied on data in inpatient, cancer, or death exclude pancreatic adenocarcinoma arising on intraductal registers,10 11 13 or even on a questionnaire12; both acute papillary mucin producing tumours. pancreatitis, unspecified pancreatitis, and CP were analysed in 10–13 9–13 Study design and data collection several series ; and most studies were retrospective, began 9 9 Patients were seen as outpatients at least once a year, or in 1946, or were multicentric, leading to heterogeneity and unscheduled (as outpatients or hospitalised) when sympto- possible biases. We thus aimed to determine the risk of pancre- matic or when their disease was complicated. Special attention atic adenocarcinoma in a prospective, single centre, medical- was paid to signs or symptoms suggestive of pancreatic cancer surgical cohort of consecutive patients with proven CP. (pain, weight loss, jaundice, abdominal mass). Abdominal imaging and laboratory tests were performed when necessary. PATIENTS AND METHODS Patients were considered lost to follow up when they failed to Patients attend our institution for more than one year. Person years All consecutive patients with suspected CP attending the (that is, the observation time contributed by one patient medical and surgical gastroenterological units of our institu- followed for one year) were calculated from the date of clini- tion between 1973 and the end point of this study (July 1997), cal onset of CP,and either the end point of the study, the last who fulfilled the diagnosis criteria of CP cited below during personal contact, the date of diagnosis of pancreatic adenocar- follow up, were prospectively studied. Patients with a follow cinoma, the date of total pancreatectomy (n=4), or death. up of less than two years or a diagnosis of pancreatic cancer Data were prospectively registered on a database. established during the first two years of follow up were excluded to rule out the possibility of pancreatitis revealing pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Definitions ............................................................. The diagnosis of CP was based on one or more of the follow- Abbreviations: CP, chronic pancreatitis; SIR, standardised incidence ing three criteria: (1) pancreatic calcifications, as evidenced by ratio. www.gutjnl.com 850 Malka, Hammel, Maire, et al tion, 500 fulfilled the diagnostic criteria of CP and were Table 1 Clinical characteristics of the 373 patients prospectively studied. Among them, 127 patients (25%) with chronic pancreatitis (CP) followed up for less than two years after the onset of CP were Gut: first published as 10.1136/gut.51.6.849 on 1 December 2002. Downloaded from CP patients excluded from the present analysis. Table 1 presents the char- acteristics of the remaining 373 patients (3437 patient years). Median age at onset of CP (y) 40 (CI 17–67, range 5–86) Mean alcohol consumption of drinkers at the time of diagno- Median age at diagnosis of CP (y) 42 (CI 20–68, range 12–86) Median duration of follow up (y) 9.2 (CI 2.2–27.2, range sis of CP was 170 g/day. Mean cumulative tobacco consump- 2.0–34.8) tion of smokers at the time of diagnosis of CP was 35 pack Male (%) 322 (86) years. The causes of non-alcoholic CP were hereditary CP Alcoholic CP (%) 318 (85) (n=6), abdominal radiotherapy (n=3), inflammatory bowel Alcohol consumption (g/day)* 0 (%) 26 (7) disease (n=1), and Sjögren’s syndrome (n=1); CP was classi- <20 (%) 25 (7) fied as “idiopathic” in the remaining 40 (11%) cases. The 118 20–120 (%) 140 (40) patients (32%) lost to follow up did not differ from the >120 (%) 162 (46) remaining CP patients in their characteristics, except for a Tobacco consumption (pack years)†‡ longer duration of follow up (median follow up 10.0 years; CI 0 (%) 36 (12) <10 (%) 24 (8) 2.2–27.2; range 2.0–31.3). 10–40 (%) 159 (52) >40 (%) 88 (29) Risk of pancreatic adenocarcinoma Pancreatic calcifications (%) § 308 (83) Sixty one patients (16%) died within the follow up period: 10 Diabetes mellitus (%)§ 202 (54) patients died from liver disease, 11 from sepsis, 16 from mis- Insulin requirement (%) § 90 (24) cellaneous causes (hypoglycaemia, pulmonary embolism, Bouts of acute pancreatitis (%) § 207 (55) Pseudocysts (%) § 171 (46) tuberculosis, stroke), and seven from unknown causes. Duodenal stenosis (%) § 69 (18) Thirteen patients (3.5%) died from non-pancreatic cancer Splenic or portal vein occlusion (%) § 77 (21) (head and neck, six; liver, three; oesophagus, one; colon, one; Liver disease/cirrhosis (%) § 140 (38)/40 (11) stomach, one; bladder, one). Four patients (1.1%) died from Biliary liver disease (%) § 51 (14) pancreatic adenocarcinoma. None had a family history of Elective surgery for CP (%) § 222 (60) Uncomplicated CP (%)§¶ 42 (11) pancreatic cancer or hereditary CP (table 2). The expected Deaths (%) 61 (16) number of cases of pancreatic cancer was 0.15, yielding an SIR of 26.7 (CI 7.3–68.3; p=0.00002). The cumulative incidence of Available data for: *353 (95%) patients; †307 (82%) patients. pancreatic cancer was 1.1% at five years and 1.7% at 10 years. ‡Percentage totals exceed 100% because of rounding. §At any time during the course of CP. SIR was 19.0 (CI 5.2–48.8; p=0.00007) in a second analysis in ¶No acute pancreatitis, pseudocysts, duodenal stenosis, biliary liver which patients lost to follow up were considered to be disease, splenic or portal vein occlusion, need for pancreatic surgery, followed up until the end point without occurrence of pancre- or insulin. atic cancer (4762 patient years; expected number of cases of pancreatic cancer 0.21). Statistical analysis DISCUSSION http://gut.bmj.com/ Differences were analysed using the Student’s t test or Mann- This single centre, medical-surgical, prospective cohort study Whitney U test as necessary for continuous data and the χ2 confirms that the risk of pancreatic cancer is markedly test or Fisher’s exact test as necessary for categorical data. We increased in CP patients compared with age and sex matched used age stratified (according to five year age groups) and sex controls. We found a much higher risk than in most case con- specific data on the incidence of cancer in France (French trol studies11 12 and population based cohort studies,10 13 several National Cancer Register, period 1983–87) to determine the of which having even challenged the hypothesis of an associ- expected number of cases of pancreatic cancer in the cohort.