V22, N13 Monday, Nov. 7, 2016

HPI Forecast: Bayh demise, Gov tossup Comey bombshells reshaped the Indiana election; Gregg needs Lake, Indy, turnout; Trey’s bad weekend; Soliday Slager, Olthoff in tossups By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – In September 2014, Evan Bayh made a fateful decision. The buzz was that he was thinking about making a comeback for the job he truly loved, being governor of Indiana, as opposed to his two terms in the U.S. Senate, which became his buzzkill. “It’s unfortunately, from my point of view, very divided by partisan lines,” Bayh said in an- nouncing he would not Democrat Senate nominee Evan Bayh campaigns in South Bend late last week return to Indiana to live in what may be his last hurrah. (HPI Photo by Thomas Curry) and govern. “Given the current makeup of the state climate and with the current legislature that we have. It’s legislature and the way the maps are drawn, I’m just likely to be the case at least for the foreseeable future.” wondering if my style of leadership would be feasible right Bayh opted to stay in Washington, hoarding a $10 now. And just for me, not for somebody else, I concluded that it would be fairly difficult under the current political Continued on page 3 Post-Trump Republicans By MARK SCHOEFF JR. WASHINGTON – The most damaging consequence of the Republican Party’s nomination of Donald Trump for president is that it denied that role to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. It’s not that Cruz would have beaten Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. But if “Based on our review, we have Cruz had been the GOP standard bearer, it would have answered not changed our conclusion that a question that will vex the party we expressed in July with respect for the next four years. After Trump falls to to Secretary Clinton.” Clinton, social conservatives will say to party leadership, such as - FBI Director James Comey it is: You did it again. You nomi- in a second bombshell on nated someone who is not a true believer, and the party paid the Sunday, clearing Hillary price at the polls. Clinton in the email probe Beginning on Nov. 9, Page 2 they will argue that it’s their turn in In the Senate, Young would 2020. They will lift up Cruz, or maybe have to decide whether he wants to Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, to lead the get things done, such as approve bud- party into the battle to deny Clinton a gets and Supreme Court nominees, second term. or endlessly fight with Democrats in If it hadn’t been for Trump, a bubble of denial that the rival party this fundamental question about the has taken over the chamber. Republican Party could have been an- The earnest Young embraces swered this year: Is it most effective the substance of Congress and the when it situates itself on the far-right “policy entrepreneur” approach that Howey Politics Indiana of the political spectrum or when it House Speaker Paul Ryan coined when WWHowey Media, LLC 405 occupies the center-right? he was chair of the House Ways and Massachusetts Ave., Suite A Cruz loss to Clinton this Means Committee, a panel on which 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 year would have meant that the Young serves. At his core, Young is a GOP centrists could have assumed lawmaker who wants to make Capitol www.howeypolitics.com control of the party, guiding it to a Hill work, rather than burn it down. place where bipartisan governance It’s probably not apparent Brian A. Howey, Publisher is elevated rather than repudiated, from the harshly negative campaigns Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington where economic and budget issues that Young and Bayh have waged that Jack E. Howey, Editor are prioritized and where middle- and each can be thoughtful and indepen- working-class problems are addressed. dent of their parties’ extremes. Mary Lou Howey, Editor Instead, as the far-right as- Bayh voted in favor of both Maureen Hayden, Statehouse serts its influence, it could mean an President Obama’s health-care reform Mark Curry, photography endless loop of House investigations plan and the Dodd-Frank financial about Clinton’s email problems and reform bill. But that hardly means he’s Senate GOP refusal to consider her a darling of the left. Subscriptions Supreme Court nominees. In fact, if Bayh defeats Young, HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 Two Hoosiers could play he’ll likely face more attacks. This HPI Weekly, $350 important roles in determining the time, they’ll be from Senate liber- Ray Volpe, Account Manager direction of the party. als, such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren, 317.602.3620 In a few weeks, Gov. Mike D-Mass., who believe Bayh is too cozy Pence will be out of a job and will with Wall Street and, like Young, will email: [email protected] have plenty of time to devote to poli- use his work for a hedge fund as a Contact HPI tics, which he seems to enjoy much cudgel. They don’t want him to re-join [email protected] more than actual governing or else he the Senate Banking Committee. Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 wouldn’t have been so quick to give As Young might find out, up his gubernatorial seat to become Bayh’s relatively pro-business modera- Washington: 202.256.5822 Trump’s running mate. tion is one of the traits that makes Business Office: 317.602.3620 Perhaps Pence has bolstered him hard to beat in Indiana. his reputation among Republicans by Bayh would clearly be a © 2016, Howey Politics being the grounded yin to Trump’s Clinton ally in the Senate. But Young Indiana. All rights reserved. volatile, offensive yang. His acolytes could be, too. Based on her perfor- will assert that he heroically held the mance as a senator, Clinton has the Photocopying, Internet forward- party together. On the other hand, ability to work across the aisle - and is ing, faxing or reproducing in does the most competent sailor on likely more skilled at it than Obama. any form, whole or part, is a the Titanic bridge get to steer another The question is whether violation of federal law without ship? Republicans will give her a chance to permission from the publisher. Pence will have to choose work with them. A Senate newcomer whether to join Cruz in seeking politi- like Young will have to determine cal nihilism in Washington - grinding whether he’s more motivated to gov- the governance gears to a halt if the ernor or to obstruct. It will be a tough GOP doesn’t get its way - or to offer a choice that could vary by issue. more expansive vision of the party. But as he decides each time, Another Hoosier who could be he will help shape what his party is to in the middle of things is Rep. Todd become. v Young, if he defeats Evan Bayh for the Schoff is HPI’s Washington cor- seat of retiring Sen. Dan Coats. respondent. Page 3

for TV ads, and tossing basketballs into hoops. There was HPI Final Forecast, from page 1 the classic Bayh symbolism and air war, but no ground million war chest. But he re- game. He collided head-on into mained a foreboding shadow a Hoosier electorate leery of over the Indiana Democratic Washington, voters seeking frac- Party. When State Rep. Chris- turing change, and either highly tina Hale pondered a 2016 educated or miseducated. Bayh Senate bid, her phone calls was a symbol of the beltway, an to Bayh weren’t returned. He onerous relic that Bernie Sand- was to be the ultimate op- ers supporters found offensive. tion. Some Democrats believe In the U.S. Senate that just as Bayh knew in race, the HPI Horse Race September 2009 he wouldn’t rates this as “Leans Young.” run for reelection in 2010, he also had a Plan B for the Can Gregg withstand 2016 U.S. Senate race, that the Comey tide? if nominee didn’t Two weeks ago, Demo- reach a June 30 FEC money cratic gubernatorial candidate threshold, he would come out John Gregg seemed to be zoom- of the blue to send the seat ing down I-65 just nine miles into the blue column and help over the speed limit. It was Hillary Clinton gain a Senate great cruising speed, enough majority. to get to the destination fast, Just hours before the not enough to get a speeding 2016 election, the unthink- ticket from Indiana State Police able may be about to happen. Trooper Smoky Bear. Evan Bayh will likely endure And then Friday, Oct. 28, his first political defeat since came, a traditional bad news he managed his father’s final dump day, except that FBI Direc- U.S. Senate campaign in tor James Comey was driving the landslide year of 1980. U.S. Rep. appearing in Sellersburg last week with that state police squad car. In The WTHR/Howey Politics Speaker Paul Ryan and 9th CD nominee Trey Hollingworth. The the most ambiguous intrusion Indiana Poll had him trailing chart is FiveThirtyEight’s final forecast. (HPI a law enforcement officer could Republican Todd Young 46-41 Photo by thomas Curry) make, Comey announced the on Nov. 1-3. SurveyMonkey FBI was investigating 650,000 tracking produced similar results. FiveThirtyEight now gives emails found on Anthony Weiner’s laptop. The perv hus- Young a 67.3% chance of winning, and Charlie Cook of the band of top Clinton aide Huma Abedin was the Democrat’s Cook Political Report said on NBC’s Meet the Press Sunday worst nightmare. The announcement lathered up social he believes the seat will stay in the Republican column. media from coast to coast as well as from Lake Michigan We have witnessed the destruction of the Bayh to the falls of the Ohio, and dominated Sunday talk shows, brand. There have been 300 state and national news sto- sending the presidential race into a spasm. ries on the Indiana Senate race, including 160 in October Gregg’s 12% lead in a Monmouth Poll winnowed and 40 this month, with an overwhelming number of them down to a 6% lead in a poll released on Halloween, but critical of his Senate record, his accumulation of wealth conducted Oct. 27-30, most coming before the Comey during and after his two terms in the Senate, his condo in smoke bomb. By Nov. 1-3 in the WTHR/Howey Politics Poll Indianapolis that he rarely inhabited, staying in hotels in- released last Friday, Gregg slipped into a 42% tie, 5% for stead. There were stories about his job search and Senate Libertarian Rex Bell now hospitalized with a stroke, and votes cast in favor of future employers. 11% undecided. SurveyMonkey tracking over a similar Bayh chose the wrong race. As one Democrat time period had the race a dead heat, with Republican Eric observed of a Bayh gubernatorial candidacy, “He wouldn’t Holcomb at an average 47.5% and Gregg at 47.25%. have had $12 million of Mitch McConnell money destroying WTHR/HPI pollster Gene Ulm believes that Gregg his character.” If Bayh had run for governor, it would have can win this race, though he gives tiny advantage to Hol- been about 21st Century Scholars, and a legacy of hun- comb who could benefit from the surge of Donald Trump dreds of thousands of new jobs, of leading the state police voters turning out in the Indianapolis doughnut counties, into embattled Gary, and record tax cuts. Morgan, Elkhart, Clark, Floyd and others in the red belt. Instead, we found a tone deaf Evan Bayh, dress- Holcomb believes that the Comey-reinforced Trump tide ing his Harvard-educated sons in Hoosier collegiate t-shirts Page 4 has put him “in the passing make sure we do.” Gregg lane.” will need heavy turnout In this, the post- along the lakeshore to truth election, it matters win. Lake County is see- little that the careening ing heavy early turnout Comey gave Clinton a clean south of U.S. 30, and bill of Weiner health in the some of that are labor midst of the Colts upset guys who are going to over Green Bay late Sun- vote for Trump, but could day afternoon. Democratic, be inclined to vote for Republican and operatives Gregg. Remember, In- working down-ballot races diana is a ticket-spitting all tell HPI that the Comey state. I asked Gregg last bombshell reverberated week about the notion through the entire spec- of yards bearing Trump trum. and Gregg signs, similar In earlier WTHR/HPI to 2008 when yards in polling, Ulm advised that Carmel sported Obama while the Senate race was a and green My Man Mitch donnybrook raging in a dif- signs. Gregg simply ferent dynamic, the guber- smiled serenely. natorial race was a twin of One thing to keep the presidential race. And in mind on Tuesday, here we saw Trump/Pence which is Lake County is moving from a languishing, an hour behind the rest fat-shaming of a beauty of the state. So watch for queen era 43-38% lead to the potential of Lake ei- an 11% advantage in the ther reaffirming a Gregg post-Comey bombshell era. victory, or potentially In essence, Gregg putting him over the top. is now facing a difficult John and Lisa Gregg talk on the Gregg/Hale tour bus between Shelbyville The HPI Horse headwind. and Greensburg last week; Eric Holcomb at a campaign rally in Zionsville Race rates the Indiana Can Gregg pull it last week. (HPI Photos by Brian A. Howey) governor’s race a pure out? The answer is yes, and “Tossup.” it hinges on Indianapolis, and, perhaps, a Gary school referendum. In the state Statewides: Edge to Hill, Ritz capitol, Republicans were able to reduce three early polling In the statewides, our prediction is that Republican places to one at the City-County Building, which is in the Curtis Hill wins the attorney general race, while Democratic midst of two major construction sites and surrounded by Supt. Glenda Ritz prevails in her race against Jennifer squad cars. Sites in Southport and 86th Street were elimi- McCormick. We believe that Ritz’s statewide network of nated. So early voting is down some 25% since the Barack educators positions her for victory, though if Trump were Obama election of 2008. to win north of 15% and Holcomb pulls ahead of Gregg by Since 2014, Gregg had viewed Joe Hogsett recap- more than 3%, that could be enough to pull McCormick turing the mayor’s office as a crucial building block to suc- with them. HPI Horse Race: Likely Hill, Leans Ritz. cess in 2016. But Hogsett hasn’t played a conspicuous role in this election. Gregg now faces the Peterson Dilemma. Indiana House and Senate Will the black vote turnout on Tuesday like it did in 2008 HPI is forecasting tossup races in HD4 where for Barack Obama? Or will it be more like 2007 when it House Transportation Chairman Ed Soliday is trying to fend didn’t for Mayor Bart Peterson? off Democrat Pamela Fish, in HD19 where Democrat Shelli Key Democratic sources tell HPI they believe VanDenburgh is attempting to return to the seat she lost the languishing early voting will be replaced by dynamic to State Rep. Julie Olthoff, and HD15 where State Rep. Hal Election Day turnout. In Lake County, the Gary school Slager is attempting to fend off a rematch with Democrat referendum will likely bring heavy turnout, which will help Tom O’Donnell. Soliday is facing his challenge in a district Gregg. He’s also paid visits to lead-contaminated East in the Valparaiso area that is trending Democratic. Slager Chicago, whereas the Pence/Holcomb administration has is facing an intense ground game that could be impacted been missing in action. In Hammond, Mayor Thomas by the race involving Democratic Commissioner Gerry McDermott told HPI this morning, “We are working hard to Page 5

Scheub. which accounts for him gaining 2% nationally while In “leans,” races, State Rep. Alan Morrison holds pulling a number of states into the tossup zone. Silver a slight advantage over Democrat Tim Skinner, and in observes, “One advantage of having a model like ours, the open seats, Republican Jim Pressel has a narrow that’s pretty quick to detect changes in the polls, is that advantage over Karen Biernacki in HD20 and in HD26, we can potentially make better inferences about the Republican Sally Siegrist has an edge over Democrat Vic- cause of polling shifts. And while it isn’t proof of anything, toria Woeste, who will need a large turnout from Purdue the pattern is at least consistent with a ‘shock’ caused by students if she is to prevail. a burst of negative news for a candidate, as opposed to a In Indiana Senate races, we give Aaron Freeman more gradual decline.” an edge over Sarah Wiley in SD32, while John Ruckelshaus Silver notes that because of that shock, Clinton has an edge over Democrat Pam Hickman, and in SD36, still leads, still has a 67.5% chance of winning, but “is not Republican Jack Sandlin has an edge over Democrat Sean in a terribly safe position. The electoral map is actually Gorman. less solid for Clinton than it was for Obama four years ago.” 9th CD: A bad weekend for Trey In final national polls, Hillary Clinton holds a The WTHR/HPI Poll had Republican Trey Hol- 3-point lead over Donald Trump in the closing days of the lingsworth leading Democrat Shelli Yoder 44-42%. But presidential race, a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, since our poll, Hollingsworth has endured in an array of a 4-point lead over Trump in the final national NBC News/ bad headlines about his filing residency claims in seven states. Yoder has ac- cused him of perpetrating a “felony” crime in Missouri. The story has re- ceived coverage in the IndyStar, Bloom- ington Herald-Times and the News & Tribune of New Albany and Jefferson- ville. While this is a “tossup” race, we give Yoder a slight edge due to the late bad headlines. Hollingsworth can over- come them if Trump wins in Indiana by 15% or more and pulls in down-ballot races with him.

Trump coattails Gov. Mike Pence spent a week preaching the notion of Republicans “coming home,” from Jeffersonville eight days ago to Utah, North Carolina and Minnesota. It appears they are heeding 9th CD Shelli Yoder campaigns over the weekend in Franklin. (HPI Photo by Thomas Curry) that call. Trump will easily carry Indiana. If he surges much over the 11% lead in the WTHR/HPI Poll, he could pull in Holcomb, in the Wall Street Journal poll, a 48-43% in the final ABC/Wash- 9th CD, and the statewide attorney general nominee Curtis ington Post Poll, and a 45-41% lead in the final CBS News Hill and superintendent nominee Jennifer McCormick. tracker. Did the Comey bombshell change the dynamic In final swing state polls, Trump is up 5% in a nationally? FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver posted this morn- Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell Poll of Michigan, though filmmaker ing, “When FBI Director James Comey told Congress on Michael Moore warned of a Brexit scenario on MSNBC last Oct. 28 that he was reviewing additional emails pertinent week, noting that Clinton had a solid lead over Sanders to the case of Hillary Clinton’s email server, Clinton had an in the primary, then lost. A Columbus Dispatch Poll has 81% chance of winning the election according to our polls- Clinton leading 48-47% in Ohio, a Des Moines Register only forecast. Today, her chances are 65% according to Poll has Trump up 7% in Iowa, a UNH Granite State Poll the same forecast. The change corresponds with Clinton’s has Clinton leading New Hampshire 49-38%, and an drop in the national popular-vote from a 5.7% lead in our Albuquerque Journal Poll has Clinton leading 45-41%. HPI estimate on Oct. 28 to a 2.9% lead now, so a swing of Horse Race Status: Leans Clinton, who will end up in the about 3 points against her.” 290 Electoral College vote range. v Silver notes that during this period, Trump had been “comparatively disciplined on the campaign trail” Page 6

fetching Eric Holcomb out of the U.S. Senate race. The A final take on 2016 deck was cut and tapped again when Pence ascended to the national ticket. Attending Pence’s veepstakes audition at a Westfield sports complex, I was denied entry. Asked from Importantville what the problem was, the Trump people told me I was By BRIAN A. HOWEY “banned” from the event. In 30 years of reporting, I had ATLANTA - We Hoosiers here in our bicentennial never been blacklisted by a campaign. year have lived at the center of the political universe. So A few calls to Rex Early and the governor’s many fates and futures passed through the crossroads of peeps, and I got in, where I was subsequently shepherded America that Donald Trump even into a pen of media jackals. Trump would later pronounce called us “Importantville” on the the press corps liars and scum as his supporters turned to eve of our May 3 primary. gawk. In some states, they would jeer reporters and pho- It revealed the double tographers and throw stuff. Hoosier folk tended to smile edged blade to Trump in what and wave. I never sensed fear or offensive derision from has essentially become a “post- my Hoosier brothers and sisters. truth election.” He clasped our On top of all that, former governor and senator better angels, saying, “Now Evan Bayh reappeared out of thin air with his $10 million Indiana is becoming very im- war chest, nudging Baron Hill aside to take on the Marine, portant .. .you folks belong where you belong; it’s called Republican Todd Young in a Senate race that could decide Importantville right? I love it.” The following morning, he which party controls that chamber. was accusing Sen. Ted Cruz’s father of complicity in the as- I watched Hillary Clinton speak to 300 folks in a sassination of President sweaty Indianapolis Kennedy. park gym two days Gov. Mike Pence before the primary, endorsed, campaigned then witnessed in and even snapped my epic fashion 10,000 photo with Sen. Ted folks fill a good part Cruz at the Republican of Monument Circle in Spring Dinner. It earned the heart of the state him a Twitter swipe from the following evening Trump. By late summer, to rally on Bernie Pence had shunned Indi- Sanders. It was a ana media. fitting scene in our Trump would go bicentennial, as Sand- on to clinch the Repub- ers and Trump fed off lican presidential nomi- the same suspicious nation in Indiana after energy of rigged sys- he had been exhorted tems and economies, to victory by our sports each winning the In- pantheon of Bobby diana primary with 53 Knight, Gene Keady and percent of the vote. Lou Holtz. He would find With a Nikon dan- his vice president, Mike gling from my neck, Pence, here, though it I snapped photos of appears that our gover- Sanders fueling his nor, fearing a reelection followers under the defeat to John Gregg, corporate logo of literally flew out to New Anthem across the Jersey in mid-July to box circle. A few days the nominee into that before, peering out decision. of my office window, This past year I saw flashing squad we have witnessed car lights before rush- the lieutenant gover- ing over to Shapiro’s nor shuffle, with Pence Deli. Donald Trump dispatching Sue Ellsper- had arrived to order mann to Ivy Tech and a rueben. A Secret Page 7

Service agent ordered me to get down from the chair I sup donnybrook. was standing on to shoot more photos. These were the players and events that brought I witnessed the twisting of 44 Republicans arms in us this peculiar year, one like we’ve never seen before and a Cleveland hotel lobby, a process that brought Holcomb probably never will again. As a steward of the process we the gubernatorial nomination with a mere 12 votes. Some call democracy from my perch in the Fourth Estate, I have $6 million of Pence reelect money was supposed to fuel great angst and trepidation. Our institutions ranging from Holcomb’s nascent bid, but only $1.2 mil- Congress, to the political parties, to the press and, in lion made it. If Holcomb doesn’t overcome the last few weeks, even the FBI, are all distrusted Gregg, the lack of early funds may be the and under duress. There are calls for revolution in reason. the streets. There were rising stars, like Demo- In our state, after the stunning assassi- cratic lieutenant governor nominee Christina nation of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., we stayed calm. Hale, who told me in Greendale she never A candidate that year, U.S. Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, a imaged her imaged emblazoned on the side hero to Gov. Pence and John Gregg and Evan Bayh, of a tour bus. But there she was. Rep. Mar- told an angry crowd in Indianapolis that night, “We lin Stutzman faded in his Senate bid, to be replaced by an can move in that direction as a country, in greater polar- Afghanistan veteran named Jim Banks. ization -- black people amongst blacks, and white amongst There was a transplanted Tennessee millionaire whites, filled with hatred toward one another. Or we can named Trey Hollingsworth taking on a former make an effort, as Martin Luther King did, to understand, named Shelli Yoder in the 9th Congressional District. Her and to comprehend, and replace that violence, that stain family had owned a LaGrange Shell station. Up north, we of bloodshed that has spread across our land, with an ef- watched a former reporter named Jackie Walorski attempt fort to understand, compassion, and love.” fend off a former South Bend cop she covered on her beat That’s the thought I leave with you on the eve named Lynn Coleman. of our great bicentennial election. Go vote. While some By the penultimate week, Trump was surging, of you will be disappointed with the results, think of this Bayh was fading, Rex Early was spinning Weiner jokes great state and nation we have and ponder what we can while Gregg and Holcomb ended up in a gubernatorial tos- do to preserve it. v