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Competitiveness and Trends for the Mining Sector in Argentina in 2019

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Competitiveness and Trends for the Mining Sector in Argentina in 2019 Competitiveness and trends for the Mining sector in Argentina in 2019 Mining Abril 2019 ____ kpmg.com.ar Competitiveness and trends for the Mining sector in Argentina in 2019 Introduction Over time, Mining has remained as one of the sectors carrying sheerer weight in the national productive framework, since it is developed within a territory rich in natural resources and because, despite the present stagnation –closely linked to the investing behavior and the international prices– it is key to achieve the sustainable development of the other economic activities, mainly, in the manufacturing and construction industries. As indicated in the 2018 report about the sector (KPMG, 2018)1, the Mining industry, understood as the business involving all activities aimed at the extraction of metallic minerals, stones for construction and hydrocarbons, provides 3% of Argentina’s GDP and 6% of total national exports (that is, about USD 4.0 billion). These figures drop by 1% and 1.3%, respectively, when hydrocarbons and fuels are not considered in the total estimate, and only the production of metallic minerals and stones for construction is included. In addition, the results of the Input-Output Matrix prepared by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC)2 shows that while Mining is one of the largest generators of indirect employment – around three indirect positions per direct position created by the sector–, most of its gross production value is demanded as supplies of other economic activities, which underlines the importance of this sector for the local economic growth. Mining, as most of the economic activities based on extraction and/or production of commodities, depends heavily on international prices. Thus, when the price of minerals goes up or climbs, capitals flow directly to the sector, either as investments in the regions where the business shows the best internal conditions for development, or as an increased speculative demand inherent to these markets, and in which the financial disbursements would be driven by higher yields compared to other assets, such as bonds, bills and other debt securities. Actually, two specific situations that took place in 2018 are worth mentioning, which determined the downward trend of the price of most of the mining commodities over most of the year: i) firstly, the economic slowdown in China (from an annual average growth rate of 14% to less than 7% over the last ten years), one of the countries providing the greatest boost to the international demand for 1 “Some relevant issues for the mining sector in 2018”. KPMG Argentina, January 2018. 2 “Input-Output Matrix Argentina 1997”. Ministerio de Economía, Secretaría de Política Económica, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos (INDEC). commodities. This meant a big impact on these markets, which contributed to the stagnation of the price of minerals, such as gold, copper or silver during the year; ii) secondly, the appreciation of the US dollar as a result of the increase in the benchmark interest rate by the US Federal Reserve (US FED) in September 2018 and the ensuing backward step in the speculative demand for commodities. These two situations together with the fall in global demand contributed to the unsteady, even downward, trend in the price of these assets during the first half of the year. Although the US FED has recently announced that it does not expect to raise interest rates during 2019, should this be the case, such decision may impact the US dollar exchange rate and promote a new depreciation of the emerging and developing countries’ currencies as a result of the outflow of capitals from these countries and an increase in assets denominated in US currency. This situation will also bring about an erosion of commodities as speculative instruments and the ensuing drop in their prices, mainly, minerals, such as gold and silver. Figure No. 1 Changes in main minerals prices. 2008-2018 Gold Silver (USD/ounce) (USD/ounce) 2.000 40 1.250,4 35 1.500 30 25 14,8 1.000 20 15 500 10 5 0 0 2008 2011 2014 2017 2018M03 2018M06 2018M09 2018M12 2008 2011 2014 2017 2018M03 2018M06 2018M09 2018M12 Nota: i) dado que el litio es un mineral que no cotiza en el mercado de valores, no se poseen datos oficiales sobre la evolución de su precio, como sí sucede con el resto de los minerales expuestos en la figura; ii) por falta de recurrencia mensual, los precios para el litio son presentados con periodicidad anual; iii) la cifra del precio del litio para el año 2018 es una estimación construida a partir de la consulta con referentes del sector. Fuente: elaboración propia en base a Banco Mundial y Metalary.com, 2019. Copper Lithium (USD/Tons) (USD/Tons LCE) 10.000 12.000 10.000 8.000 6.075,3 10.000 8.000 6.000 9.100 6.000 4.000 4.000 2.000 2.000 0 0 2008 2018 2008 2011 2014 2017 2018M03 2018M06 2018M09 2018M12 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Note: i) As lithium is a mineral not listed on the stock market, there is no official data about the changes in its price, unlike the rest of minerals disclosed in the figure; ii) as there is no monthly information for lithium, its prices are disclosed on an annual basis; iii) the price amount of lithium for year 2018 has been estimated based on information provided by different players of the sector. Source: Prepared by KPMG based on data of the World Bank and Metalary.com, 2019. © 2019 KPMG, a Partnership established under Argentine Law and a member firm of the KPMG network 3 of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Actually, as noted in Figure No. 1, while the price of gold increased by 44% in the ten-year period from 2008 to 2017, accounting for USD/ounce 1,257; during year 2018, it showed a downward trend from the average quoted price of USD/ounce 1,330 in January to USD/ounce 1,250 in December, which meant a 6% fall in the price of such mineral over the year. Something similar occurred to silver and copper, metallic minerals that showed a 14% drop in their prices between the first and last month of 2018. Unlike the abovementioned trends, lithium maintained its growing trend. Boosted by the growing share in the lithium-ion batteries, which currently account for 50% of the use of this mineral, the price of lithium carbonate has been showing a rapid growth over the last two years. In 2017, the average price amounted to USD/Tn. 9,100 and in 2018, it was estimated in the amount of 10,000. Thus, it became the “trendy” mineral, while it opens up a real development opportunity for the countries of the region, such as Argentina, Chile and Bolivia, which, together with Australia, have the greatest reserves of this mineral at a global level. Additionally, it should be noted that the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is a key factor in Mining both at a local and international level, as the development thereof requires enormous investments and long-term periods for capital amortization, but also, because the high volatility of prices and regulatory changes, mainly in environmental matters, imply a risk that can only be managed by mature companies, highly integrated, with the possibility of getting huge budgets, and usually, of international standing. In this regard, the net FDI flows to Argentina displayed a cyclical behavior over the last ten years, from a remarkable increase in the period 2011-2012, in the amount of 16.8 billion to a subsequent downward plunge in reply to the exchange restrictions imposed (limiting cross-border transfers, restricting remittance of earnings abroad and the purchase of foreign currency); a situation that started to be improved in year 2016 when the referred exchange restriction was removed. During the same period, net FDI flows to the mining activity followed a pattern similar to the aggregate amount, considering that the sector depends heavily on these investments for the development thereof. In fact, as shown in Figure No. 2, net foreign investment in Mining amounted to USD 4.7 billion in year 2012 (or 28% of total FDI) and fell below USD 1.0 billion in 2014 (5%) and 2015 (1%), or USD 100 million in 2016 (23%), basically as a result of the earnings reinvestment process and the settlement of debts with related companies carried out after the removal of the restrictions mentioned above. Additionally, upon analyzing the FDI destined to our country in the period 2007-2016, it is worth mentioning that: i) although Mining has been the sector that has driven most of the foreign investment in that period (12% or an aggregate amount of USD 12.7 billion), ii) when figures are compared among the mining countries of the region (Peru, Chile, Colombia, Brazil and Mexico), Argentina’s allocation of FDI to Mining ranks below the rest of the countries. Under a scenario in which the production activities weighed in favor of capital flows and fund placement, the poor performance of investments in this sector, during the period analyzed, necessarily implies the existence of important internal obstacles that prevented local production activities from having access to the global FDI. Even though there is no official data about this variable for the last two years (2017 and 2018), as the figures disclosed by the Argentine Central Bank (BCRA) include periods up to 2016 only, there are some indications that help estimate that the FDI allocated to this sector followed the same pattern, which is currently intensified by the high interest rates boosted by the US FED and a context of knockdown prices.
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