2020 Elections: Two Weeks Out BIPAC – Oct. 26, 2020 President There are two things to keep in mind as we get closer to Election Week.

Though the polls routinely show former Vice President winning enough states to unseat President Trump, a large number of key state polls were wrong in 2016.

For example, a total of 62 surveys were conducted in the state of Pennsylvania during the last presidential election cycle, and only three found a lead for President Trump. In Michigan, 45 polls were publicly released, and Trump led in just two. In Wisconsin, 33 polls were taken, and none found President Trump running ahead. Yet, in all three cases, he won the state.

The Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic region was not the only area where 2016 polling missed the mark. In North Carolina, the margin average looked to be even heading into the election, but President Trump won with a 3.6% spread. The cumulative polling missed Arizona by two points, and Florida by 1.2%. The latter two states were well within the polling margin of error, however, but the large preponderance of pollsters predicted a Clinton win in Florida. Most importantly, in all of these instances, the Republican vote was under-estimated.

We’ve further seen big polling misses in an important 2017 Georgia special congressional election, and major races in Ohio and Florida in the 2018 midterm elections. In all of these instances, the Republican vote was under-estimated.

Currently, while President Trump trails in the four politically marginal Great Lakes states, he did at this time four years ago, too. In fact, his standing today is just about where it was last time in Minnesota and Wisconsin, and he is actually a few points ahead of his 2016 pace in Michigan and Pennsylvania. We will remember that Mr. Trump carried by small margins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and finished just 1.5 points behind in Minnesota, thus confounding the polling community.

Will such a turnaround happen again in 2020? In this year of such strange occurrences, anything can still happen, but several factors are cutting against President Trump that were not present in 2016.

First, something that cannot be overstated is the impact that COVID-19 has had on Mr. Trump's primary and best issue, a thriving economy. Second, while his numbers appear to be improving somewhat with minorities, particularly Hispanics, his standing among women and those 65 years and older, the latter of which was a key voting segment for him in the last election, have weakened. Third, his campaign messaging appears less disciplined than it was in 2016 when his future agenda for America was very clear and routinely repeated. And fourth, Joe Biden’s negative ratings are simply not as high as Hillary Clinton’s.

The one virtual certainty we have in the presidential election is that it will not be called on Election Night, November 3rd. Because many states are extending the ballot reception period well past Election Day – key states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina, for example, have reception deadlines of November 5th and 12th, respectively – the final count and a declared winner could be postponed for weeks.

Additionally, in 30 states ballot counting cannot begin until some point on Election Day, meaning a slow count in all of these places when considering the increased use of mail voting. Among the states in this group are the critical states of Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin, suggesting that we will see the counting continue for long past Election Night. Therefore, we can plan on seeing a long “political overtime” period to close out what could be the most bizarre presidential election in American history.

Senate

On the cusp of the 2020 election, Senate control is up for grabs. The current Republican majority is 53-47, meaning Democrats need to convert a net three seats if Joe Biden is elected and four if President Trump wins a second term.

The Alabama seat is particularly critical to determining the next majority. Though in Democratic hands of Sen. Doug Jones who won a 2017 special election, the Alabama seat is a must-win for the Republicans and their nominee retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville. Polling, the issues, and the fact that Alabama will be a top three state for President Trump all favors Mr. Tuberville. His win is critical for the GOP because this conversion means the majority number increases to 54.

The key to Republicans maintaining control potentially comes down to five states, of which they must win four. All but one are currently in Republican hands, meaning the pressure falls on Sens. Joni Ernst (IA), Susan Collins (ME), Steve Daines (MT), and Thom Tillis (NC), after the Alabama seat is converted. Therefore, at least three of these four incumbents, all in highly competitive re-election battles, must win their races to give their party any chance of holding Senate control.

Republicans should secure Kentucky, with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and Texas, as three-term incumbent John Cornyn is favored for re-election. The open Kansas seat is going back and forth, but Republican Congressman Roger Marshall is at least a slight favorite to secure the seat prior to the election.

The Democrats, with many more targets and largely on the offensive, have a much different path. They must first protect their competitive seats in Minnesota with Sen. Tina Smith, and Michigan where first-term Sen. Gary Peters is in a difficult race with Republican challenger John James. If they secure those seats, then they must begin winning Republican seats. Their first two are in Arizona and Colorado where appointed Sen. Martha McSally (AZ) and first- term Sen. Cory Gardner (CO) continue to trail in polling.

Democrats are looking at further Republican targets in , where their candidate, former state Democratic Party chairman Jaime Harrison, will raise over $100 million for his campaign, an incredible sum for a small to medium-sized state. Though Alaska usually plays as a safe Republican seat, polling suggests that first-term incumbent Dan Sullivan is in a tight battle with physician Al Gross.

Georgia is one of the more interesting states, and the only one in this election cycle where both Senate seats are on the ballot. Sen. David Perdue seeks a second term and documentary film producer and former congressional candidate Jon Ossoff is his Democratic opponent.

The special election features appointed incumbent Kelly Loeffler after Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson was forced to resign the seat at the end of 2019 because of health issues. This race is different because it is a jungle primary. That means all of the candidates are on the same ballot and the November 3rd vote is the primary election for this race. If no one receives a majority vote, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff election on January 5th.

Therefore, the aggregate Senate picture is very tight. It is conceivable to see both parties reaching 49 seats with a dogfight for the final two positions, and those could end up being located in several different places.

House

The House looks to remain under Democratic control. Though the Republicans need only to effectively convert 19 seats to re-take the majority, the party is on the defensive in at least ten states, meaning Democrats could actually expand their majority.

On the other hand, 30 Democrats hold seats that President Trump carried in 2016, meaning the GOP has conversion opportunities. If they can re-claim several of those seats, the opportunity exists to tighten the partisan division in the next House, or even have an outside chance of taking back majority control.

Additionally, a conversion number of 19 – technically the number is 17, but the North Carolina state Supreme Court re-drawing the congressional map for 2020 will cost the Republicans at least two seats – is not particularly large. In four election cycles since 1994 inclusive, we have seen swings of 40 seats or more. This includes the last election where Democrats gained a net of 40 to win the majority. In 2010, for example, the swing was 63 seats.

A large number of House districts are competitive in 2020. More than 70 campaigns in at least 33 states are worth watching, so we do have a very active campaign cycle. As was detailed in the presidential section, a large number of competitive seats means a long election night, or what we can start calling “political overtime,” and the majority ultimately will be decided in the post-election period as states will consume days in processing and counting their large numbers of mail ballots.