Security Dynamics Within the Black Sea Region

CEU eTD Collection

Security Dynamics within the Black Sea Region Region Sea Black the within Dynamics Security In partia l fulfillment the of requirements the degreeinInternational for ofMasterArts Department ofInternational Relations and European Studies A Study on theon A Study Amity Of Supervisor: Professor Balázs Péter

the Inter the Central European University Relations European and Studies Maria SabinaMaria Lazar Budapest, Hungary Word Count: 17 Count: Word Submitted to - 2014 StateInteraction by

Enmity Specificity Enmity

211

CEU eTD Collection vulnerabilities, and concerns. security makin making, amity of patterns and relations power issues, inter that show thesis the of findings The analysis. the testing study, case on based Security Regional the mainly of applicability is employed is which methodology The shield. anti the and conflicts frozen the as such dynamics, security enabling region long into look will and states, of typology “weak”/”strong” onthe states based of analyze thebehavior will thethesis this, to show important overlooked featur have which frameworks been has theoretical Region inappropriate Sea Black through the perceived that is reason possible a that show to seeks thesis present have Why Region. Sea Black the within dynamics security handling in West the by approach structured effective of lack the revealed also has it but community international the of attention special attracted es of inter of es The current Ukrainian crisis which crisis Ukrainian current The g the state prone to act according to socially historically constructed images, images, constructed historically socially to according act to prone state the g - state relations showing a process of regionness based on security issues. In order Inorder security issues.on basedregionness of process showinga relations state h Trans the

- tatc omnt’ efrs o mt h epce rsls The results? expected the met not efforts community’s Atlantic - lasting security issues tha issues security lasting

Complex Theory on the Black Sea Region, and discourse and Region, Sea Black the on Theory Complex Abstract was followed by Russia’s annexation of Crimea has Crimea of annexation Russia’s by followed was - niy only h iett fco o region of factor identity the downplay enmity i

- state relational dynamics based on security security on based dynamics relational state

t have reverberated across the whole whole the across reverberated have t - alsi missile ballistic - CEU eTD Collection Bibliography Conclusion Chapter 3 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 1 Introduction List Abbreviationsof 3. 2 Anti 2 3. Frozen3.1. Conflicts States2.5. Members theof EU Turkey2.4. Ukraine, 2.3 Georgia, Moldova Armeni2.2. Russia 2.1. Roots of Misperception of theBlack Region Sea Research Design Research Question 3.1.2. 3.1.2. West 3.1.1. Regional Dynamics Security2.5.2. Concerns fromCome Abroad 2.5.1. Membership inthe EU Reduces DomesticVulnerabilities 2.4.2. B 2.4.1. DomesticVulnerabilities DominatedSocial by Divisions 2.3 2.3.1. Complex Mixture of DomesticVulnerabilities Security2.1.2. Concerns Outwards Oriented or Mutually Enforcing Strong2.2.1. ExecutivesEnsure Lack Fragmentationof Security2.1.2. ThreatsCome from the West 2.1.1. Managing Democracy for Reduced Vulnerabilities .2. Security Concerns Inwards Oriented – -

...... Ballistic MissileShield

- - International Levels of Analysis

alance Between Internal and External Perceived Threats

...... Domestic Theoretical Approach

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a, Azerbaijan and Belarus ...... - East Division and Great Clash of Powers’Interests

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...... Vulnerabilitiesand Security Concerns

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...... Table Table of ......

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...... ii Contents

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58 56 52 48 41 41 41 37 36 36 35 34 34 32 29 29 27 25 25 23 21 21 21 14 10

iii

8 5 1

CEU eTD Collection WBSA RSCT PfP OSCE MAP NATO EU ENP EaP CIS BSR BSF BMD AEI

Wider Theory Regional Security Complex Par Organization forand Security Cooperation inEurope Membership Action Plan North European Union EuropeanPolicy Neighborhood Eastern Partnership Commonwealth of Black Regi Sea Black Fleet Sea Ballistic Defense Missile AllianceIntegration for European tnership for Peace Atlantic TreatyOrganiz Black Sea on

Area

Independent

List o

f Ab ation

States b iii

reviations

CEU eTD Collection Defence Studies Defence USSRthe (See t 3 which 2 Azerbaijan and Georgia, Armenia 1 its abili the and region the of security the regarding mark question as powers medium not Russia’s to end an put to US the and EU regionSea have expansion territorial now is Russia reason, this For called so its in interests its promote to ability time same is it comm Atlantic Trans the by perceived being increasingly are region the in developments security the 2014, Ukrainian current the of a and engagement,

he beginning of the 1990s to denote special rights held by Russia in the states pertaining to the former territory of of formerterritory the to pertaining states the Russiain by held special rights denote to 1990s ofthe he beginning The term “near abroad” was firstly conceptualized by the Russian Foreign Minister Andrey Kozrev (1990 Andrey Minister Foreign Russian the by was firstly conceptualized abroad” “near The term 1994 the broke Russia Crimea, annexing When Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, states: following the of composed The is region

stability.

influence the outcome of the crisis. Their action is being perceived by the regional small and small regional the by perceived being is action Their crisis. the of outcome the influence not a trustworthy partner for either the EU EU the either for partner trustworthy a not shown the interest of the of interest the shown it promised to promised it The , but they have more importantly also shown its limitations. The efforts pursued by the by effortspursued The limitations. its shown importantlyalsomore have they but , wider wider Kaare Dahl Martinsen, "The Russian Belarusian Union and the Near Abroad." Abroad." Near the and Union Belarusian Russian "The Martinsen, Kaare Dahl

, June 2002 June , unity as challenges to its own security own its to challenges as unity

guarantee Ukraine’s security in exchange for its dismantling of its nuclear arsenal. nuclear ofits its dismantling for exchange in security Ukraine’s guarantee Black Sea R Sea Black turning a blind blind a turning play

towards other neighboring countries as well as countries neighboring other towards , pp. 38) pp. , ground for ground

rss n te usqet bopin f rma y usa n March in Russia by Crimea of absorption subsequent the and crisis

Trans egion regarded

eye r egional and non and egional - 1 Atlantic community in upholding security upholding in community Atlantic

is to Introduction

Budapest Memorandum, Memorandum, Budapest now more than ever before ever than more now as an unpredictable actor who might potentially pursue pursue potentially might who actor unpredictable an as intervention

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lni cmuiy ha community tlantic addressing theright with them But d Central Asia. It has long been a buffer zone for empires and great powers, powers, great and empires for zone buffer a been long has It Asia. Central d even even against the backdrop the against interests m ietd t region at directed ay have a spill a have ay h ms important most the drce priua atnin oad te lc Sa Region Sea Black the towards attention particular directed s

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6 . CEU eTD Collection gns f region of agents facto important other aside leaving geography, and identity of terms in defined to the aforementionedBlack regions, maythe area regionconsidered Sea a notbeatall. compare when analyticalreference, surely, as these of populations. Takingonly points variables and societies distinguishable linguistic and cultural undisputable are there addition, In Balkans. sa more other between transition aslabeledbe cannot areaSea Black wider is it such, As delineations. geographic clear and region, constructed have not or region a was questionable is region Morgan as Th region.the of definition orunderstanding common a lack not, or regionness of degree concrete a about speak can we if establishing for dynamics security the over influences strong inter important misses however, approach This region. t and literature, namely security intertwined relations. deeply interdependent Tran coagulants. regional be also may they level, broader alu and Pavliuk s - Atlantic community Atlantic But is this comparison even appropriate even comparison this is But BSR’s

and Ciută and tts f eines has regionness of status he study of bilateral relations has been the main focus point when analyzing the analyzing when point focus main the been has relations bilateral of study he Klympush - aig such making, , to only name a few, has claimed that claimed has few, a name only to , . The main variables that have been taken into account when testifying if it it if testifying when account into taken been have that variables main The in broad terms broad in

- towards the region failed to notice the BRS’s regionness particularity, regionnessBRS’s the notice to failed region the towards Tsintsadze s oe rltos n security? and relations power as liently conceived regions, such as the Baltic, Danube or the the or Danube Baltic, the as such regions, conceived liently Adn Kn, Hajizada King, Aydin, , been identity, or a common cult common a or identity, been actually

a region, taking into account takinginto region,a e research e in the Black Sea area. The few few The area. Sea Black the in 4

when frequently From this standpoint, the approach of the of approach the standpoint, this From

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- concept state interdependencies which have have which interdependencies state the wider Black Sea area Sea Black wider the

en vrokd n h academic the in overlooked been ad acaq Wae, Lake, Weaver, Marciacq, and a on this region by scholars such such scholars by region this on

of region of eiig h rgo i an in region the Defining frequently

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nducted nducted d CEU eTD Collection region amity ofpatterns and powerrelations security issues, (RSCT) issues. inter of features important and practices of setpatterns of interaction. a by or challenges common of existence the by nurtured and power, of interest of means by determined regionalization of process a manifesting regions di geographically or states different several including area an right, own its in macroregion as aregion? region, the of interpretation results. expected the will question of th are agents which and states, driving regional the and between interaction patterns the are which identify to is aim the specifically, More BSR. Researc international as theEUUS. and actors, the such manner inconsistent - making. As such, the theoretical underpinning of the macroregion will derive from the the from derive will macroregion the of underpinning theoretical the such, As making. wl show will I a is (BSR) Region Sea Black the that is thesis this of assumption the such, As aim The , as defined by Barry by defined as , f nlzd rm h cneta faeok of framework conceptual the from analyzed If h Question

make it possible to explain to possible it make of this thesis this of may have a negative effect on how the region is approached by interested interested by approached is region the how on effect negative a have may how

s uh i te rsn tei I ek o rvd a oe effective more a provide to seek I thesis present the in such, As

- the state relations which show a process of regionness based on security security on based regionness of process a show which relations state

and answer the question of: what actually defines the Black Sea area Sea Black the defines actually what of: question the answer and

is to fill the gap in the literature related to the understanding of the the of understanding the to related literature the in gap the fill to is Buzan osrce app constructed

and Ole Waever Ole and

why the the why roach 5

region - enmity may downplay the identity factor of factoridentityof downplayenmitymaythe of the previous research has has research previous the of , inter , - e regional specificities. Answering this this Answering specificities. regional e building einl euiy ope Theory Complex Security Regional - state relational dynamics based on on based dynamics relational state

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not registered not overlooked stinct stinct CEU eTD Collection 7 regional who inthe region. actors influence thesecurity outcome dee without and actors regional the all involving without conducted be cannot region the in amity of patterns and relations that shows Trans the under countries the of proximity geographic the and states, regional between rivalries or allegiances historical the by projected influence ongoing the with collide interests (Russia region the within powers great the 2003 wayw the and it BSR, the up more a but information, overlapping post the and Turkey, and Balkans reg the in complexes security three of formation book their in Waever and Buzan by detail in described and researched periods war in defining in benchmarks complex”. c

onceptual, geographical and historical scope provided by the concept of “regional security security “regional of concept the by provided scope historical and geographical onceptual, See Chapter V in in V See Chapter ply rooted relations of enmity and clash of div of clash and enmity of relations rooted ply The process of defining the BSR region will take into account the colliding influences of of influences colliding the account into take will region BSR the defining of process The the RSCT, by required As - - be2014 timeframe will thefocus ofanalysis. Atlantic community failed to generate a secure environment in the region. the in environment secure a generate to failed community Atlantic

euiy opee ae osiue i del itrwnd euiy inter security intertwined deeply in constituted are complexes security ought to be analyzed. However, the period before the Cold War and until 2003 was 2003 until and War Cold the before period the However, analyzed. be to ought Buzan andWaever, andWaever, Buzan

analysis. This theory helps us understand why the region the why understand us helps theory This analysis.

as changed due to security dynamics in the region since 2003. sinceregion the in security dynamics to changeddueas ter -

tt rltosi dynamics relationship state - enmity. As such this theory shows us that solving security issues issues security solving that us shows theory this such As enmity. Regions and Powers, 2003 and Regions ein ut be must region - oit tts Te i o ti tei i nt o provide to not is thesis this of aim The states. Soviet - to s dmnn pwr t h cne o te S, whose BSR, the of center the at power dominant a is - date understanding of the process of region making in making region of process the of understanding date 6

ion, namely the EU Europe and its abroad, the abroad, its and Europe EU the namely ion,

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where they identify the the identify they where into into - - building approach of of approach building 91 n post and 1991 motn events, important The theory The dependent dependent regard to regard As such,As - , the ), cold - - CEU eTD Collection University Press, 2003, pp 49 pp 2003, Press, University 11 research. further for needed is analysis depth More in covered. 10 Perspectives. Energy 9 2003 Press, University 8 description and onregional explanation dynamics. and knowledge, featur added important Another RSCs of (merger) transformation external an of indicators be may dynamics interregional “ for theory, this of scope the giving appropriate considered is boundaries ballisti the as such issues other by and Greece, and Turkey Bulgaria, Romania, as such actors, other by also influenced been have and influenced have which dynamics, regional the on explanation accurate more a provides scope territorial Anatolia to steppe Russian and Ukrainian “ the as defined is which the of value added analytical The context. regional and international current the with line in accurate, RSC. identified territorially inter the of analysis brief a present 2003.The until relationships providing (RSC), complex security regional a as space Security”, International of bo Structure their In study. this of subject the understanding to tool

Hamilton , Daniel, and Gerhard Mangott. Mangott. Gerhard and Daniel, , Hamilton Ol Buzan, Barry

Barry Buzan, Ole W Buzan, Barry be will it not thesis this of scope limited the to due however importance, of also is issue of gas The transit

present thesis is the redefinition of territorial scope, to that of the wider Black Sea Region Region Sea Black wider the of that to scope, territorial of redefinition the is thesis present RSCT, as envisioned by Barry Buzan and Ole Waever Ole and Buzan Barry by envisioned as RSCT, e Waever, comprise the period between 2003 and 2014, thus providing a more up more a providing thus 2014, and 2003 between period the comprise

Washin aever,

Regions and Powers. The Structure of International Security, International of Structure Powers.The and Regions Regions and Powers. The Structure of International Security, International of Structure Powers.The and Regions gton D.C: Center for Transatlantic Relations, 2008, pp. 1 pp. 2008, Relations, forTransatlantic D.C: Center gton

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state date date The ” 11 . CEU eTD Collection 12 understand macro study case Design Research understanding inthe thedynamics the conditions, possible which under possible are specific under conditions possible of range complete a listing by scenarios predictive generate may RSCT the because accomplishable is This states. the between dynamics the in outcomes and developments possible poten a and room provides framework theoretical betweenregional the states. methodologies operational and to according programs regional their reform self artificially t have then we do problems Trans the of standpoint the From Bl the between interaction of agents driving and patterns the are

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In order to analyze whether socially constructed images have linked perceptions and and perceptions linked have images constructed socially whether analyze to order In bycomplemented be will method This The former soviet states have already been defined by Buzan as forming a a forming as Buzan by defined been already have states soviet former The opens the door for door opens the T he epistemological approach will be positivist, allowing for both both for allowing positivist, be will approach epistemological he - state interaction based on concrete actions and situations, and and situations, and actions concrete on based interaction state

ions, reports. The two methods will be combined in order to order in combined be will methods two The reports. ions, ontribution to the field, as it will provide a more effective more a provide will it as field, the to ontribution more general theorygeneral more tion through which the elites and decision makers decision and elites the which through tion discourse analysis on the following types of texts: texts: of types following the on analysis discourse 9

to regional

be developed regarding similar other similar developed regarding be ooking at this particular regional regional particular this at ooking situation Verifying the applicability the Verifying erstanding the role of of role the erstanding , and it will verify if verify will it and , enon. However, this this However, enon. By verifying RSCT, RSCT, verifying By looked looked CEU eTD Collection Pennsylvania State University Press, 1997, pp. 1 pp. Press, 1997, University State Pennsylvania 15 14 practices of changing 13 than those identified int that suggest scholars other Moreover, cooperation of tradition identity, common have it ofRoots proper usability the research method. of the support would context/situation the of and state the of policy foreign the of analysis prior by and sources, of range wider a and reliable from extracting information by overcome be can limitation This analysis. under states the of ambitions foreign policy the support to as so shaped mobilization, public of speech or propaganda of product decision of discourses public events of interpretation elites’ about information empirical to access potential their for analyzed be will that texts of types The states. neighboring the by pursued actions the and events interpreted have

David A. security: present." regional Sea "Black Weaver. Carol and BSEC EU, the Region: Sea Black Europe's in "New Florent regionalism Marciacq. and Hajizada,, Mukhtar as being composed of individual states, not states, individual of composed being as

nlzd t region its analyzed

are speechesdeclarations specifically andportraying conceptions. ownbeliefsand The Black Sea region has been been has region Sea Black The methodology analysis Discourse

Lake, and Patrick M. Morgan. Morgan. M. Patrick and Lake, Misperception the region is either politically constructed or it is shaped by different boundaries boundaries different by shaped is it or constructed politically either is region the

regionalism." regionalism."

his thesis es claim ness sc a Hjzda n Marciacq and Hajizadaa as such ,

East European Politics European East - makers might not represent their actual belief, but it it but belief, actual their represent not might makers the .

Regional Orders: Building Orders: Regional

Black Sea Region Sea Black ht t ant e eie a a region a as defined be cannot it that researched -

68, 221 68,

might prove to have limitations in the sense that the the that sense the in limitations have to prove might

European Security European - r simply or 10 245 as a distinguishable region in itself. in region distinguishable a as

(Routledge) 29, no. 3 (2013): 305 3 (2013): no. (Routledge) 29,

by many scholars. scholars. many by

Security in a World. a New in Security

self

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contextualizing the discourses. A A discourses. the contextualizing denomination under this this under denomination Waver , Yet 14

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Charl SeaR Black “TheWider Charles King. Klympush and Pavliuk RoleInstitutions." of the and Sea Black the in Cooperation "Regional Mustafa. Aydin, Klympush Ivanna and Oleksandr, Pavliuk, es

King . in the contemporary context it is very hard to claim that there is a Black Sea identity, identity, Sea Black a is there that claim to hard very is it context contemporary the in Scholars such as Pavliuk and Pavliuk as such Scholars Ki codn t Pvik and Pavliuk to According the neighboring coun ng, The Black Sea: A Hi A The Sea: Black ng,

T from a framework of inter of framework a from he subsistence of this region has, region this ofsubsistence he a regiona suggests 20 .

(Perceptions), Autumn 2005, pp. 59 pp. 2005, Autumn (Perceptions), The claim of this thesis however, is that there is a is there that is however, thesis this of claim The -

Tsintsadze, 2004, pp. 7 2004, pp. Tsintsadze,

in broad terms broad in neither by any of its constitutive actors, actors, itsconstitutive any of by neither

r Transatlantic Relations, 2008, pp. 1 pp. 2008, Relations, Transatlantic r ht h Bak e ae my r a not may or may area Sea Black the that story. Oxford: story.

tries egion in the Twenty the in egion 7

- be Klympush Tsintsadze. Tsintsadze. . Klympush ed as being composed of the six the of composed being as ed

state cooperatio state a region in itself, providing empirical evidence attesting evidence empirical providing itself, in region a

Oxford University Press, 2004, pp. 7 pp. 2004, Press, University Oxford T ial lne b tae clua cmoaiis and commonalities cultural trade, by linked rically he argues, he e draw hey He The Black Sea Region: Cooperation and Security Building. Security and Cooperation Sea Region: Black The - 11

Tsintsadze -

” edited by by edited ” Tsintsadze -

First Century” in “ in Century” First has actually defended the claim the defended actually has - 19 n (specifically through (specifically n

teto t te at that fact the to attention due to the main obstacles to cooperation cooperation to obstacles main the to due Daniel Hamilton, Hamilton, Daniel , , 16 vn h budre o te ra are area the of boundaries the even nor by the international community the international nor by

and Aydin and The Wider Black Sea Region in the in Region Sea Black Wider The be form of regionalism in the in regionalism of form -

oriented 8 littoral states, or by also by or states, littoral en

17 and Perceptions: Journal of of Journal Perceptions:

support the support osdrd region a considered Margaret Gerhard, Margaret

trade) to a highly a to trade)

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that the wider wider the that t s not is it 19

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CEU eTD Collection 24 23 2008 January London), College University Studies, European East and ofSlavonic (School 22 regionalism." practices of changing 21 ord however complexes, security regional of understanding entities separate two RSCs. to characteristic possibilities “ titled 2011, in published Black thealso presented Weaver Carol Se security concerns. purposes political for conducted not is BSR the at process making ensuring Europeaninthe region integration construct political between boudaries Ciută by conducted research the rests reasoning of line same WBSA the apart drove divides ideological and allegiances foreign religion, materi to failed consecutively has region the attempt, (BSEC). Cooperation Economic Sea Black self the that claim Marciacq Florent and Hajizadaa

Caro Ciut Felix Ciut and BSEC EU, the Region: Sea Black Europe's in "New Florent regionalism Marciacq. and Hajizada,, Mukhtar ers - inductive ă, 2008, 4 2008, ă, l Weaver. "Black Sea regional security: present." security: present." regional Sea "Black l Weaver. , and on which type is more dominant in each security complex. complex. security each in dominant more is type which on and , Closer to the assumptions of this thesis and i and thesis this ofassumptions the to Closer Mukhtar well. as scholars other for point reference analytic an been has Identity ă . "Region? Why Region? Security, Hermeneutics, and the Making of the Black Sea Region." Sea Black ofthe Making the and Hermeneutics, Security, Region? Why "Region? . ”. -

8 region

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theoretical and political praxis in the region, he concludes that the BSR is a is BSR the that concludes he region, the in praxis political and theoretical salse b te U n wih a ol b udrto a a ol for tool a as understood be only may which and EU the by established

, but it is rather a product of region making practices undertaken by the the by undertaken practices making region of product a rather is it but , rvds ocee ro rvaig ht h rgo hs h features the has region the that revealing proof concrete provides 24 .

However, Similarly, lc Sa einl euiy peet utplrt ad future and multipolarity present security: regional Sea Black

East European Politics European East s

he identifies the Black Sea and the South Caucasus regions as as regions Caucasus South the and Sea Black the identifies he ai A Lk ad arc M Morgan M. Patrick and Lake A. David a region a region 23 . hy ru that argue They

European Security European The present thesis however claims thatth present claims however thesis The 12

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as a regional security complex regionalas a security n the same line of reasoning as Barry Buzan, Barry reasoningas of line same the n alize due to the fact that fact the to due alize Black Sea Black ge) 29, no. 3 (2013): 305 3 (2013): no. ge) 29, ih priua fcs on focus particular a with

(Routledge) 20, no. 1 (March 2011): 1 2011): 1 (March no. 20, (Routledge)

22 ro t BE’ region BSEC’s to prior I hs tep t ietf the identify to attempt his In . , but as consequence of shared shared of consequence as but , Area

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CEU eTD Collection no. 4 (2005): 372 4 (2005): no. 26 Press, 1 University State Pennsylvania 25 initial created interdependencies security The the led have region, the in War Cold the of end an in together states the relationship. interdependent bound have which of matters practice security or of identity means common by to but due cooperation, not formed region Sea Black wider a about speak with the Balkanregion. relation in degree same the to found be not may which interdependence, strong by linked are enforce mutually and shared macro a into merged have BRS the and Caucasus South The that show to seeks by Ukraine and Turkey Serbia, Russia, namely complex security Tsardanidis claim who was by made identifying boundaries region’s the the

Charalambos David A. the BSR regional borderlines y contrast By Balkan, including including

Lake, and Patrick M. Morgan. Morgan. M. Patrick and Lake, as a security complex, but rather the post the rather but complex, security a as

Tsardanidis. "The BSEC: From New Regionalism to Inter to Regionalism New BSEC: From "The Tsardanidis. - 374 the the Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Georgia, Greece, Moldova, Romania, Moldova, Greece, Georgia, Bulgaria, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Albania,

which

lc Sa and Sea, Black ih h eitn literature existent the with

s opsd f h mme sae o te raiain f the of Organization the of states member the of composed is , est I d threats and security concerns of the constitutive states, and they they and states, constitutive the of concerns security and threats d

argue that argue ablishing throughBlack security thewider area. links Sea 997, pp. 1 997, pp. Regional Orders: Building Security in a World. a New in Security Building Orders: Regional 26 the . As such, t such, As . in more than two decades time decades two than more in - ot Cuau cutis Hwvr te rsn thesis present the However, countries. Caucasus South 68, 221 68, security developmen security - te rsn tei age th argues thesis present the , 13 245

BSR he author identifies a security complex formed complex security a identifies author he

- Soviet area as a whole a as area Soviet

and the South Caucasus South the and - regionalism?" regionalism?" ts which have taken place since the since place taken have which ts

have extended beyond the the beyond extended have ed that ed Agora Without Frontiers Without Agora 25 .

at Pennsylvania: The Pennsylvania: Another attempt at attempt Another

there is a there is regions to merge. to regions currently we can can we currently - region, due to due region,

regional regional BSEC

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CEU eTD Collection 29 Press, ed. 28 2000),pp 27 actors regional with balancing interests, powers’ great between crossroad the at been always have area Sea Black wider the in states the because th as such balancing, of consequence as formed were power with other states, or owncapabilities. by boosting them lack not do who others to vulnerable is status this by required capabilities the of all not but most possesses them.of one balancingis andstrategies, various adopt power hegemonic a of maintenance or formation the power. of balancing through capa national of distribution the portraits system international the of structure overall the and states, system international anarchic an in live states Thus, an power, of politics the for ground this explained appropriately most be may rela bilateral at look a taking such, As issues. security by mainly generated

Kenneth N. Wa N. Kenneth “ Levy, Jack S. N Kenneth Balance of Power Revisited: Theory and Practice in the 21st the Century. in Practice Theory and PowerRevisited: of Balance theory, the national state is the most important actor. important most the is state national the theory, bilities 2004) This the between relationship The .27 , p

Watz . 27 p theoretical framework theoretical What Do Great Powers Balance Against and When and Against Balance Great Powers Do What . 29 .

In their attempt, attempt, their In ltz, ltz, . - - . 32

29 "Structural Realism after the Cold War." War." Cold the Realism after "Structural Structural Realism

As such, the less the such, As

CHAPTER 1 This behaviour is conducted with the mere purpose of of purpose mere the with conducted is behaviour This

they , pp25 ,

may describe well the well describe may er states may resort to balancing to resort may states er

tts n the in states through the through endless struggle for power and for for and power for struggle endless ed o ly ih te sae aant h rsn threats rising the against states other with ally to tend - 29

Theoretical Approach 14

theoretical wider Black Sea Region Sea Black wider International Security International .

28 Inself a hr t where ?

” In order to ensure t ensure to order In

Moreover, t Moreover, In In Cold War period, when two blocs of of blocs two when period, War Cold T.V. Paul, James J Wirtz, Michael Fortman, Fortman, Michael Wirtz, J James T.V.Paul,

(Stanford, California: Stanford University University Stanford California: (Stanford, e Eastern block and the West. But But West. the and block Eastern e lenses of lenses - e yai i rltos between relations in dynamic he help system, a great power which greatwhich a power system, help was not a viable option. option. viable a not was he international arena is the is arena international he , Vol. 25, Vol. , of power, either by allying by either power, of

neorealism. According to to According neorealism.

maintaining tions, their evolution their tions,

heir security, states security, heir has had a dynamic dynamic a had has No. 1, No. (Summer, preventing preventing of clashes clashes of security. For CEU eTD Collection 31 481 pp. 2003, Press, University 30 outside exclusively not are region the in dynamics the as distinction, this make to important inter and enmityas independentvariables. time same the at f only neorealism As developments analysis. of body the in levels subsystem the and system the both including while regiona within anticipating and explaining analyzing, for framework a providing of purpose specificallyit provide of a states’ behavior. tolevel regional inorder explanation theory This together. dr main the and patterns, dynamic security of establishment the enables which mechanism the understanding on insights more provides it because chosen may andsocial security connected construction tothe of be regions important misses consequently and components, regional consideration region of process analyzingthe for conceptual framework a of lack the theoryis neorealist the weaknessof with str this resources enough with states

Ibidem Ole Waever, Buzan, Barry - eain ewe itrainl ytm n sbytm ees f nlss o e ae I is It made. be to analysis of levels subsystem and system international between relation few The RSCT For

lzto ad h seiiiy f h rgo itself. region the of specificity the and alization aaiiis n nt enough not and capabilities the the added value of the RSCT the of value added

s smiss f erait an neorealist of symbiosis a is purpose of this thesis, this of purpose it analyses the subsystem political processes and examines the patterns of amity of patterns the examines and processes political subsystem the analyses it ocuses on the former, the RSCT includes the distribution of capabilities, but capabilities, of distribution the includes RSCT the former, the on ocuses

is mainly based on the neorealist conceptualization, but which departs from departs which but conceptualization, neorealist the on mainlybased is Regions and Powers. The Structure of International Security, International of Structure Powers.The and Regions - 482

ategy may prove to be optimal, however for weaker states weaker for however optimal, be to prove may ategy

is that it it that is

the “ the om o maneuver for room Regional Security Complex Theory Complex Security Regional d constructivist elements, combined for the mere mere the for combined elements, constructivist d allo 15

ws for the differentiation and identification of identification and differentiation the for ws , it is not a viable option. option. viable a not is it , iving force which keeps the region the keeps which force iving N eorealism does not take into into take not does eorealism 30 .

regional dynamics that dynamics regional

Cambridge: Cambridge Cambridge: ” (RSC ”

) clear A

was - CEU eTD Collection 34 42 pp. 2003, Press, University 33 105 pp. 1983, Books, Wheatsheaf 32 great powers) global of juxtaposition regi at constructed patterns and RSC, a within developments dynamics. security regional actors. external and internal by and cultural; path merely are which analyzedfrom geographic cultural, apurely historical or perspective b not may they that means which security, of lens the through solely defined is whole another one from apart considered be realistically cannot securities national whos states of group a than clusters regional the arewithin strongerinterdependencies processes and these such, As interests. or concernssecurity inter of thus and securitization of processes enable threats complexes. security based regionally to rise give and coagulants regional become they ones, long over than distances short over travel to likely more Security interdependencies p global by driven

Ibid Ole Waever, Buzan, Barry Barry. Buzan, em, The ”, security interdependencies are created by threats which due to the fact tha fact the to due which threats by created are interdependencies security ”, pp. 3 pp. security interdependence between the states the between interdependence security - People, States and States People, 4 and system level powerlevel system and

. As stated in their book their in stated As . wr, o mrl a einl factor regional a merely nor owers,

Regions and Powers. The Structure of International Security, International of Structure Powers.The and Regions - their that closely sufficiently together link concerns security primary e ( dependent - they 43 between internal and external actors. external and internal between

Fear: The National Security Problem of International Relations. International of Problem Security National Fear: The

r a te rsra o blne f oe dvlpet between developments power of balance of crossroad the at are H owever gorpia, oiia, taei, itrcl e historical, strategic, political, geographical, : s , regional security interdependencies, and the symbiosisofthe and securityregional interdependencies, , ,

: “ : there is a clear degree of autonomy of security security of autonomy of degree clear a is there Regions and Powers. The Structure of International of Structure The Powers. and Regions Global players usually play an important role in role important an play usually players Global 16

of RSC RSC of , but rather a consequence of security security of consequence a rather but , The common or mutually established established mutually or common The dependency between states guided by by guided states between dependency onal level onal

“ A security complex is defined as defined is complex security A is

determined by several factors several by determined 33 .

. Cambridge: Cambridge Cambridge: RSCs are created by created are RSCs ”. 32

The region as a as region The

Brighton: Brighton: conomic and and conomic e regions if regions e t they are they t

the

CEU eTD Collection 37 36 35 interstatethe in patterns with associatingthem by security developments analyzeregional current powers (identif focused regionally acto of practices and discourses security the by the taking advantage existence ofregional of rivalries. which complex, security the within states individual with alignments security establishing by RSC the penetrate powers Great it. reconsolidating latter the while imperative, between ones” long over than distances short over easily more “ since factor, important an also is proximity geographical The states). member (such area civilization certain a with association cultural by or Turkey), and Greece as (such enmities maintained and established have which factors historical by constructed be may They coagulant. regional inter creating level, subsystem patterns states’ ofand occurrencebehavior. f security constructed differently

Ibidem, Ibidem, Ibidem, ies the weak and strong states), strong and weak the ies oevr i odr o aiiae n all an facilitate to order in Moreover, to order In a at enmity and amity of patterns durable the are reference of points analytical main The play inthe region

pp 51 pp 49 pp. 45 pp. great and small powers in the region, the former group transgressing the regional regional the transgressing group former the region, the in powers small and great

36 accurately .

R S C 37 T comprises four levels of analysis: domestic vulnerabilities of states of vulnerabilities domestic analysis: of levels four comprises T .

identify regions forming security complexes, this theory analyses theory this complexes, security forming regions identify - as the European culture and EU values, commonly shared by the the by shared commonly values, EU and culture European the as eednis ewe states, between dependencies ears and objectives. objectives. and ears security concerns, security

rs through an all an through rs 17 -

encompassing analysis, RSCT RSCT analysis, encompassing

euiy etrs r drbe forming durable, are features Security

inter .

nte ky atr s h interplay the is factor key Another

- - and as such constituting a strong strong a constituting such as and encompassing approach, not only only not approach, encompassing state relations, and the role global role the and relations, state

is made possible possible made is nbe oe to one enables threats travel travel threats rae long created - CEU eTD Collection 40 65 pp. 1983, Books, Wheatsheaf 39 38 states areas suchinternally themmore fragmented, makes vulnerable toexternal which threa security. own their ensure and/or state the capture to seeking actors of and interests threats, external with deal large of occurrence ongoing an of lack the ensure to society civil the and institutions governmental state. the security of internal boundaries with preoccupied mainly is former the that staten of r it words, In other society. civil the and institutions state cohesivenessbetween states strong and weak between distinction t reference rolesactors played by regional analyze macro 2013 the and thesis this of scope limited dyn the understanding for relevant highly ha complexes security regional the RSCT, pre the in constructed dynamics

Buzan, Buzan, Barry. Buzan, Ibidem, - scale use of force perturbing the political life of the country the of life political the perturbing force of use scale - system structures, and units units and structures, system Differences between foreign policy strategies of regional actors mayactorsregional of strategies policy foreign between Differences People States and Fear and States People

both the interplay between interests and actions of great powers in the region and the the and region the in powers great of actions and interests between interplay the both pp. 14 pp. n - 2014 timeframe will be analyzed. be will timeframe 2014 ess. The principal distinguishable feature between week and strong states is the fact fact the is states strong and week between feature distinguishable principal The ess. o variables existent at state level. Taking this into account, account, into this Taking level. state at existent variables o People, States and Fear: The National Security Problem of International Relations. International of Problem Security National The Fear: and States People,

, 6 while weak states are confronted with an ongoing clash of divergent of clash ongoing an with confronted are states weak while - 67 W 7

- a state eak

68 within the given the within timeline

to the already existent literature for the period before 2003, only only 2003, before period the for literature existent already the to -

Cold War, Cold War an War Cold War, Cold etiig o usse levels. subsystem to pertaining s

amics in the security complexes. security the in amics o o pses su possess not do , by focusing not on the status of power, but on the the on but power, of status the on not focusing by , The analysis must focus on both units pertaining to pertaining units both on focus must analysis The e en osrce drn tee three these during constructed been ve 18

d post d fficient consensus between the the between consensus fficient - Cold 39 . threatened S - trong states usually have to usually have states trong War War As such, such, As 38 periods.

also be explained explained be also However, due to the to due However,

ST ae the makes RSCT egards the degree degree the egards rm ihn the within from this thesis will will thesis this

Brighton: Brighton: A

ccording to ccording stages The weak weak ts all , . by 40

CEU eTD Collection University Press, 2003, 22 2003, Press, University 41 independent ands entirely be to cultures, national distinctive have to themselves perceive states these In addition, influences. cultural and political economic, from isolation and closure of effect symbolic openness. classical states modern The borders. national the outside and within operate to actors society civil more migration; and identity to related issues on merely focused agenda inter po characteristics. type state modern strong maintained have which non the in occur also not did development post to modern from inter and relation in and standards EU the with accordance in development political and social economic, further and integration European subsequent the however susceptibility typegivea certain and other tendency certain ofbehavior,to to to states. labels dynam security generate not does it if even region, a within states of pre categories: main three into

Barry Buzan, Ole Waever, Buzan, Barry st - - oen tts are states modern relations between economic, cultural and political and cultural economic, between relations states incorporates dynamics regional understanding for classification relevant Another In 2003, Barry Buzan categorized the Central and Eastern European states as modern as states European Eastern and Central the categorized Buzan Barry 2003, In Westphalia hi bre lns aat rm bei from apart lines, border Their overeign -

eedne ih h ohr U onre, ae uhd hm p h latter the up them pushed have countries, EU other the with dependence - - type. They are characterized by a strong central authority and lack of of lack and authority central strong a by characterized are They type. 24 modern, in line with the other EU member states. However, the same same the However, states. member EU other the with line in modern, Regions and Powers. The Structure of International Security, International of Structure Powers.The and Regions lrls ad democracy, and pluralism

41 .

- modern, modern and post and modern modern, - EU Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus states Caucasus South the and Europe Eastern EU efforts and membership of Romania and Bulgaria, and Romania of membership and efforts 19 g ertra dlnain, lo ae strong a have also delineations, territorial ng

oe pn n tlrn approach tolerant and open more spheres; more open economies; security economies; open more spheres; - modern. The modern. The main characteristics of the the of characteristics main The ics, it does however create however does it ics, preponderance preponderance

Cambridge: Cambridge Cambridge: freedom provided for provided freedom es of a type a of

towards towards fit

the , ,

CEU eTD Collection York: Routledge, 1996, pp. 28 pp. 1996, York: Routledge, 42 type a ofsociety Western the between crossroads the at is which countries, these of status the account into taking practices and institutions democratic of standards higher post the with relations strong states, these For project domestic development provide. would region the in stronglyengaged being that advantages certain from benefitting not means exclusion them For dilemma. this with Ukraine,Mo as (suchtypes two the borderbetween the at states the Particularly inclusion. and exclusion between threats, contradictory of symbiosis a creates

Neumann, IverB. Neumann,

hs itr o bt tps f tts hwvr ih peodrne f oen states, modern of preponderance a with however states, of types both of mixture This nd culture andnd thenational one Russia and the Idea of Europe. A study in Identity and International Relation. International and in Identity A study of Europe. Idea the and Russia

- 40

s become at variance with external influences from outsider actors. outsider from influences external with variance at become s But i But 42 20 - modern states means having to get in line with line in get to having means states modern

nclusion also comes also nclusion .

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at a risk, for cultural andcultural for risk, a at Georgia), have to Georgia), have

London and New and London deal deal

CEU eTD Collection Wheatsheaf Books, 1983, pp. 65 pp. 1983, Books, Wheatsheaf 43 late the of authoritarianism bureaucratic functional still yet failing the from shift di USSR the of collapse the 2.1. 2.1. domestic orexternal. institution state between strong and concerns, security their over and states regional concerns for states,be which reason will theanalytical ofthisthesis. of this startingpoint policy foreign the understanding for grounds informative the provides actually them Identifying W of course the change othe with as such focused, policy foreign mainly are These account. into taken be should that variables key several

Barry Buzan, Buzan, Barry a e 1. 1. e, h dmsi vleaiiis a ifune h psto o te s the of position the influence may vulnerabilities domestic the ver, Russia Managing Democracy for Reduced

According to the Freedom House’s most recent report in 2009, Russia’s transition after transition Russia’s 2009, in report recent most House’s Freedom the to According overview an provide to seeks chapter This inn regional the understand to order In C relations between states, the involvement of global actors in the region, the interactions the region, the in actors global of involvement the states, between relations r neighboring regions. neighboring r HAPTER regional People, States and Fear: The National Security Problem of International Relations. International of Problem Security National The Fear: and States People,

powers. powers. foreign policy, and as such of such as and policy, foreign

- s and the civil society civil the and s

Domestic VulnerabilitiesSecurity and Concerns - 67 “ rather was it but society, democratic atowards path a follow not d

s uh te eerh il ou on focus will research the such, As In addition In

Vulnerabilities , also what happens within a state a within happens what also , 21 er driving force for security dynamics, there are are there dynamics, security for force driving er , and on the security threats of the states, either either states, the of threats security the on and ,

in order to order in

inter

vr h dmsi vleaiiis f the of vulnerabilities domestic the over - state relations state

finally identify finally h dge o cohesiveness of degree the .

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Brighton: Brighton: - Soviet period Soviet

. 43 a

CEU eTD Collection December 2008: 39 December2008: 49 48 P 47 executive. overthe stateinstitutions of the 46 45 statebudget from its officials to wealth person ensure to government the of practice perpetual the namely 44 time. throughout ruling own condensing president. pre mainly are system party political the of structure al addition, In administration. core the from terms practical the more such active as Anna journalists, Politkovskaya. improved. media the of freedom and package legislative. the for limited very institutions. state the a is it terms managed as described often is that democracy decorative a groups, influence informal of dominance the k capitalist selectively on rests that authoritarianism footloose more flashier, a to olitics." The South Atlantic Quarterly, Winter 2014: Winter Quarterly, Atlantic The South olitics."

Dmitri Furman, "Imitations Democracies. The post Democracies. "Imitations DmitriFurman, era." The Putin Democracy?a not is Russia "Why Alena. Kozina, Ilya This den term Kleptocracy." and Capitalism Selective "Russia: Kimmage, Daniel cha usually corruption featurepolitical of a to refers “kleptocracy” The term

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for the state has state the for - fragme Soviet leadership to control the political sphere and the influence the and sphere political the control to leadership Soviet ng the media continued, and continued, media the ng

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Social and Political Review Political and Social 49 over control and power on hold strong a Freedom House Freedom - regulation and complete independence complete and regulation

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44 in - , CEU eTD Collection 52 http://carne 51 1 2012: 19, September 50 “ that stipulates bloc the expandingby including “ to infrastructure military NATO opponent, dangers activity), operational organs’ power state of disruption the and state, the of integrity territorial and sovereignty, the undermining of act the force, by structure M 2010 2009 threat This years to led which claims separatist concern of issue ongoing 2.1. which ismore Russia likely under “strong tofall de state” state significant or citi for willingness little and Russia, in Autocracy for support popular a is there Studies, European relation. citizenry

Ibidem, II, 8 a) 8 II, Ibidem, Russian Federation." the of Doctrine "The Military forD Support "Popular Ellen. Carnaghan, zens to get involved in political action get to zens involved in 2. 2.

stating that the military operation against the rebels has come to an end. In addition, the addition, In end. an to come has rebels the against operation military the that stating Security Th Russia than outside at directed rather are concerns security Russia 51 ilitary Doctrine of Russia barely lists any domestic threats (the change of constitutional of change (the threats domestic any lists barely Russia of Doctrine ilitary . gieendowment.org/files/2010russia_military_doctrine.pdf (accessed May 2, 2014) 2, May (accessed gieendowment.org/files/2010russia_military_doctrine.pdf

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setra threats external ’s the deployment (buildup) of troop contingents of foreign states (groups states foreign of contingents troop of (buildup) deployment the exists , in relation to its its to relation in , reat Moreover, a Moreover, - - 14. citizenry lack of consensus consensus of lack citizenry

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main . CEU eTD Collection 57 56 55 54 53 interests,ambitious strong and a power. regional Russi provide threats, external at directed p concrete of lack the society, the and state the between consensus overall The typology. state” “strong of features FederationRussian andtheborder the of border state the to adjacent areas in groupings radical armed international of activity affairs internal their “ by that stating influence, Western overcome to aim its and abroad near its on pays Moscow importance Russia’s with line In security. states neighboring in conflict armed of emergence or presence the that security attempt any that equilibrium power strategic the disrupts and stability global the undermines installation 2020” to Security Russia. to threats security neighborhood pose its in waters adjacent also and allies its and Federation Russian the with contiguous states of territories the on

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Haas, ed. "Geo ed. Haas, Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael International of Institute Netherlands -

led peace keeping forces on the territory of the three fragmented states (this states fragmented three the of territory the on forces keeping peace led - strategy in the South Caucasus: Power Play and Energy Security of States of Security Energy and PowerPlay Caucasus: South the in strategy - away regions ig regions away - fire agreements to be signed, however on its own terms, namely by namely terms, own its on however signed, be to agreements fire

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nced a military offensive on 7 A 7 on offensive military a nced

Hendenskog, and Robert L. Larsson. Russian Leverage on the CIS and Baltic States. Report FOI Report States. Baltic CIS and the on Leverage Russian Larsson. L. Robert and Hendenskog, Hendenskog, and Robert L. Larsson. Russian Leverage on the CIS and Baltic States Baltic CISand the on Leverage Russian Larsson. L. Robert and Hendenskog, Beehner, "Letter From Tbilisi: Georgia's Confidence Game. A Change of Fortune for Saakashvili's Regime." Regime." Saakashvili's for Fortune of A Change Game. Confidence Georgia's Tbilisi: From "Letter Beehner,

Cioroianu, Geopolitica Matrioscai Matrioscai Geopolitica Cioroianu,

King, "Clarity in the Caucasus? The Facts and Future of the 2008 Russian 2008 the of Future and The Facts Caucasus? the "Clarity in King, n h atrah f h cnlc, usa lsd t bres oad Goga which Georgia, towards borders its closed Russia conflict, the of aftermath the In w 1992, in started conflicts Georgian the in meddling Russia’s , 242. ,

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Eissler, Eric R. "Can Turkey De Turkey "Can Eissler, R. Eric 23 pp. Ibidem, Reconciliation. to Road Long The Abkhazia: Nagorno Among the regional states, states, regional the Among

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Gamaghelyan, Philip. "Intractability of the Nagorno the of "Intractability Philip. Gamaghelyan, tation and rich oil resources oil rich and tation , July 2005: 1 July , the far, so negotiations the during been have mediators the active However This situation creates further instability in the region, and the current Russian occupation Russian current the and region, the in instability further creates situation This

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