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THE CASE FOR CONFLICT www.iss.europa.eu PREVENTION by Álvaro de Vasconcelos JANUARY 201134 THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE EU: Quarterly published by the EU Institute for Security Studies 43 avenue du Président Wilson - 75775 Paris cedex 16 - France NON-STICK DIPLOMACY 3KRQH  ä)D[   by Anton La Guardia Editing / Layout : Fraser Buffini / Hanno Ranck

EAST ASIA: TIME TO STEP UP EDITORIAL THE EU’S POLITICAL PRESENCE by Nicola Casarini Álvaro de Vasconcelos Director THE CASE FOR CONFLICT PREVENTION

As 2011 gets underway, it seems an opportune time to address the question of how to go about ending conflict in the world. Sadly, both Europe’s neighbourhood and Africa provide abundant examples of half-baked peace k/NEWSCOM/SIPA arrangements that fail to resolve the situations they are supposed to address, which quickly relapse into violence and terrible loss of life.

Despite all of this, the international community continually makes the mistake of hoping that ‘this time’ reason will prevail and relying on the good faith of the belligerents – until the situation has again deteriorated beyond the point where the only thing left to do is to intervene to try to avoid another crime against humanity. People in Juba, southern Sudan, celebrate before voting in the January 2011 indepedence referendum

Looking to Africa, it is right and indeed Angola’s warring factions, the MPLA (the party hard to avoid the conclusion that hard lessons essential that people should be given access of incumbent President Santos) and Unita have not been learned, even if credit must to the polls they have been denied for decades ‘free and fair’ UN-supervised legislative be given to African leaders (with the notable – provided the ‘free and fair’ expression of elections and the first round of presidential exception of the Angolan President) for their their will is subsequently respected. In the elections took place in 1992. The elections involvement in trying to persuade the defeated UN-supervised elections that recently took were held when the demobilisation and former Ivorian president to accept the people’s place in the Ivory Coast, the former president integration of the two armies were far from verdict. Equally, it must be acknowledged that lost to his opponent. Refusing to step down, complete, and as a result Angola was plunged the UN has fielded 10,000 peacekeepers, he abused his control of the army to maintain into ten more years of murderous civil war. and that ECOWAS is threatening the use of power thus bringing the country to the verge Repeated warnings about the need to bolster force to ensure that the election’s outcome is of another civil war. the UN military presence in the wake of the upheld. Should it come to that, as the stalled elections had gone unheeded. African mediation seems to suggest, it is This kind of scenario is of course nothing uncertain whether a full-scale war can still be new. After the peace deal brokered between In the light of such dispiriting examples it is averted. EDITORIAL 2

In Sudan, a decisive vote has in all likelihood upheld a two-state solution in the context of one of the intractable conflicts that have been plaguing the Sudanese for decades. Most public statements predict that partition will go ahead peacefully, and that Khartoum is resigned to the loss of South Sudan and a large KAREN MINASIAN/AP/SIPA portion of the country’s oil fields and revenues. We are speaking however of a country where one of the worst mass slaughters in recent history has been committed by the armed forces under the authority of President Bashir, who was indicted by the International Criminal Court on a number of counts including genocide. What therefore is the basis for the international community’s optimism, and for the trust placed in the good faith of Sudan’s ruler? If the peace agreement is to hold and the likely partition is to go ahead peacefully, the settlement regarding the Abeyi enclave Soldiers return to their positions during military exercises in Nagorno-Karabakh must be upheld, other border demarcation disputes that may arise must be settled post-facto use of military force spells disaster EU’s sense of international responsibility and peacefully, and, most importantly, the two in most cases. its values as a soft power. The importance million or so southerners living in the north of this commitment is acutely felt in the must be allowed to get on with their lives, free The European Union is in a good position EU’s neighbourhood. Tensions in Nagorno- from discrimination and violence. Furthermore, to implement a coherent, continent-wide Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan the power struggle in Juba must remain free strategy of prevention by linking together its are on the rise again, increasing the likelihood from violence. And any negative influences various Africa programmes. Concentrating of a Georgia 2008-type conflict. In the Middle on Darfur, where tensions were already rising on humanitarian aid and poverty reduction East, the eruption of new wars like the 2006 before the vote, must equally be avoided. assistance and, when conditions are ripe, war in the Lebanon or the 2008-09 Gaza war security sector reform will certainly yield cannot be ruled out. It may be too late to implement a genuine prevention strategy, which Lessons must not be forgotten. many believe would have required “ The international community cannot afford to wait for On the eve of the Georgia war larger numbers of peacekeepers, a crisis. The formidable tasks of preventive diplomacy when everybody knew that the in particular in Abeyi. But at least in near-crisis situations...require sometimes war was coming, nobody put any the international community should expensive, often dangerous and always sustained real pressure on the parties to unequivocally state that they are efforts. find a peaceful solution to their prepared to act resolutely should -David A. Hamburg ” differences. While no tangible things go badly wrong, and the pressure was put on Russia to EU should make it clear that military support dividends in terms of fostering sustainable stop aggravating the situation, nobody made will be forthcoming in case of need. ‘Things human development and bolstering prevention it clear to the Georgian government that going going badly wrong’ is, sadly, very much a and mediation capacities. to war to bring Abkhazia and South Ossetia euphemism. Both in the Ivory Coast and the back into the fold would be unacceptable. Sudan, the issue is actually preventing mass Both the African Union’s broad endorsement A US warning, potentially more effective, murder and genocide. of the responsibility to protect and the more was also conspicuously lacking. The EU active role taken on by regional organisations was subsequently successful in making use The question of how to protect civilians has are good news for the Africans and thus of mediation and peacekeeping to prevent been at the heart of the UN debate since the for the EU, which has been a constant escalation. The same kind of resolve and horrendous massacres that took place in the supporter of African-led peace initiatives. unity of purpose needs to be channeled by 1990s in Rwanda and Srebrenica. In both The EU’s backing of the AU’s and Kofi EU insitutions and member states into an cases, as UN Secretary-General Ban Ki- Annan’s successful mediation in Kenya in the effective strategy of prevention. moon stated in his report on the responsibility aftermath of the December 2007 elections is to protect, the carnage took place ‘under the an example of what can and should be done. Concentrating on prevention in the watch of the Security Council and United But this does not absolve it from facing up to neighbourhood and Africa through a vast, Nations peacekeepers.’ And he warned its own responsibilities to prevent genocide multi-pronged programme (many parts of that the UN and its individual members and mass murder, including through direct which are already in place) is a task well- ‘remain underprepared to meet their most military intervention. suited to a civilian power like the EU. It is fundamental prevention and protection one where not only tangible results are within responsibilities’. When prevention fails, the A bold strategy of prevention and protection reach – which is what effectiveness is all international community has the obligation to is obviously not just about averting mass about – but that may yet yield significant gains resort to military force to protect the civilian murder and genocide; its wider aim – to in terms of the long sought-after consistency population. But merely concentrating on the prevent conflict and war – underpins the and coherence of EU foreign policy. ISS Seminars 3

EUISS Annual Conference 2010: EU-Washington Forum 2010: building on the civil society agenda giving new impetus to the EU-US agenda Paris, 21-22 October 2010 Washington, 8-9 November 2010

Hubert Védrine speaks at the 2010 Annual Conference Former Senator Chuck Hagel (left) talks with Ambassador Jan Matthysen (right)

The EUISS Annual Conference 2010 took place this year in Paris The third annual EU-Washington Forum addressed the challenge on 21-22 October. This year’s theme centred on the changing role of strengthening the EU-US relationship post-Lisbon and explored played by civil society in the global agenda. Its subsequent focus options for reinvigorating the common agenda. Issues discussed was on how best to capitalise on these ongoing transformations at the conference included the Western Balkans and Eastern with a view to building an effective multilateral approach to global Europe, the Middle East Peace Process, disarmament and non- and regional problems. proliferation and the transatlantic economic partnership

The future of Sudan: event’s keynote speech was given by the Vasconcelos. The first two sessions included challenges ahead EU’s Enlargement Commissioner, Stefan discussions on the economic crisis and Brussels, 9 December 2010 Füle. The first session covered the political global governance; the future of the G20; and legal problems of the EU’s approach and ways of dealing with some of the most toward Abkhazia and South Ossetia and the serious regional crises facing both actors constraints and opportunities of engagement. in the world today -- notably, Afghanistan The second and third sessions covered the and Iran. The seminar was concluded with economic and societal aspects of EU soft a discussion on ways of finding a common power respectively, while the final session approach for Africa looked at ways ahead for the EU’s policy toward Georgia and the two unrecognised Security and defence in the entities. Mediterranean Barcelona, 25 October 2010 Rasheed Saeed Yagour chairs one of the panels Beyond China-EU In anticipation of the independence relations referendum of January 2011 in Sudan, this Paris, 27 October 2010 seminar gathered key experts on Sudan to discuss the local, regional and international dimensions of Sudan’s post-referendum era. It provided a number of scenarios and potential options for policy makers, and addressed the new EU strategy toward Sudan and challenges ahead for its implementation. Narcis Serra speaks at the seminar in Barcelona Non-recognition and engagement: Taking place at the Pedralbes Palace in the EU’s policy toward Participants of the conference at the EUISS in Paris Barcelona on 24 October 2010, the EU Abkhazia Institute for Security Studies collaborated Brussels, 1-2 December 2010 Co-organised with the China Institutes of with the Centro de Estudios y Documentación Co-hosted with the European Union Special Contemporary International Relations and Internacionales de Barcelona (CIDOB) Representative for the South Caucasus and taking place in Paris on 27 October 2010, for this seminar. It has been organised with the financial support of the Ministry this seminar focused on the economic and annually since 2002 by CIDOB and the of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands, this regional crises facing both the EU and Spanish Ministry of Defence and aims seminar explored the EU’s non-recognition China, and finding a common approach to gather experts, scholars, and civil and and engagement policy to Abkhazia and for Africa. The seminar’s opening remarks military government officials in tackling the South Ossetia and the societal and economic were provided by the CICIR Vice President, different challenges and threats existing in aspects of its soft power approach. The Tao Jian, and EUISS Director, Álvaro de the Euromediterranean region. ISS Publications 4

European involvement in the L’UE et l’Afrique : Arab-Israeli conflict les défis de la cohérence Chaillot Paper - N°124 Cahier de Chaillot - N°123 December 2010 Décembre 2010 edited by Esra Bulut-Aymat par Damien Helly

The past year has seen new setbacks in L’Afrique, depuis une décennie, efforts to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict, est sur la voie d’une « structuration while 2011 is hailed by many as a key stratégique » dans tous les domaines year for moving towards a two-state des affaires internationales. Mais si solution. This paper aspires to make l’Afrique change vite, les institutions a timely contribution to policy thinking changent lentement. Dans ce Cahier on European involvement in the conflict by focusing attention on de Chaillot, l’auteur examine comment l’UE relève les défis a number of cross-cutting issues, challenges and opportunities for régionaux avec cohérence et à long terme. the EU. Quelle politique pour l’UE au Zimbabwe A new farewell to arms: aujourd’hui? viewing disarmament in a Occasional Paper - N°87, new security environment Décembre 2010 Policy Brief - N°6 par Vincent Darracq December 2010 by Jean Pascal Zanders Le 13 février 2009 a marqué un tournant majeur dans l’histoire contemporaine du Advocates of disarmament have long Zimbabwe, avec l’intronisation d’un Gou- maintained that non-conventional weapons vernement d’Union nationale. Dans cet are so destabilising to international peace Occasional Paper, l’auteur s’efforce de and security that they should be eliminated décrypter la politique actuelle de l’UE au altogether. This policy brief provides an regard de ce développement tout en ex- overview of the disarmament question and examines how it is aminant les modalités du réengagement entering a new phase in a radical new context of globalisation and politique et économique de l’UE au Zimbabwe. rapid technology diffusion. Violence politique et paix What do Europeans want from NATO? dans le monde arabe Report N°8, November 2010 Cahier de Chaillot - N°122, by Sven Biscop, Nicole Gnesotto, Jolyon Howarth, Novembre 2010 Daniel Keohane, Stefano Silvestri, Teija Tiilikainen par Abdallah Saaf coordinated by Álvaro de Vasconcelos L’ancien concept de « sécurité nationale The future of NATO is of arabe », que l’on croyait définitivement paramount importance for condamné après la disparition EU foreign policy. Yet no progressive des régimes d’obédience official EU perspective has nationaliste arabe, perdure, voire même been publicly formulated se renouvelle. Qu’en est-il aujourd’hui on NATO’s 2010 strategic des conceptions et doctrines ? Que concept, or how it should reste-t-il des représentations liées à la problématique de l’État complement the EU’s postcolonial, qui avaient prévalu dans le monde arabe au cours foreign and security des décennies précédentes ? policies. This report is a contribution to the debate Peacebuilding in Asia: about NATO’s future, and refutation or cautious what that may mean for the engagement? EU. Occasional Paper - N°86 November 2010 NATO should remain by Amaia Sánchez Cacicedo predominantly a regional alliance with collective Is there an Asian approach to defence remaining its core business. As a military alliance, peacebuilding? In this paper, the author NATO must develop its missions in close collaboration with explores what characterises the Asian organisations with a strong civilian component like the EU or the approach while aiming to discern to what UN. The comprehensive, strategic ap¬proach needed to confront extent Western-dominated mainstream conflict and crisis should be at the core of an EU-NATO political views of peacebuilding are applicable to Asian countries. dialogue.

All EUISS publications can be downloaded from the Institute’s website: www.iss.europa.eu Anton La GuardiaGustav The LindstromEconomist 55 OPINION THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE EU: NON-STICK DIPLOMACY

For decades now, the diplomatic game in group that runs the Gaza Strip? Probably effect would be greatly enhanced if Arab the Middle East has been summed up as: not. And Hamas retains the ability to act as states were to issue a parallel roadmap. ‘America plays, Europe pays’. Now that a violent spoiler. President Barack Obama has given up on Another objection is that neither Israel nor direct peace talks between Israel and the Europeans should devise a better way the Palestinians want to join European Palestinian leadership, largely because of forward, based more on terms of incentives clubs. For many in Israel, NATO, which Israel’s obsession with covering the ancient for peace, and less on penalties for the comes with a mutual-defence clause and biblical landscape of the West Bank in lack of it. They should set out a European an American nuclear guarantee, would concrete, might this be Europe’s moment ‘roadmap’ for peace: a graduated series of be more attractive than the EU, with its to act? incentives that they are willing to offer both vast acquis and provisions for the free sides for progress, culminating with the movement of peoples. Palestinians, for This was certainly the hope of 26 former prospect of NATO and EU membership if their part, may be keener on integration European leaders and senior officials when and when they reach a final peace deal. with the Arab world than with Europe. In the they wrote a letter on 2 December 2010 end, membership would be for Israelis and calling on the EU to ‘take Palestinians to decide. a more active role in Yet making the offer has resolving the conflict and value in itself. It would be put its stated position a declaration of goodwill into effect’. Addressed by Europe. And it would to Herman Van Rompuy, blunt Israeli suspicion president of the European that European criticism Council, and Catherine of its policies stems from Ashton, the EU’s pro-Arab bias, even anti- foreign-policy supremo, Semitism.

Rafael Ben-Ari/Cham/NEWSCOM/SIPA the letter’s seven turgid pages can be boiled A third objection argues down to the idea that that neither Israel nor Europe must impose a Palestine qualify as ‘price tag’ for Israeli ‘European’. Yet Israel policies that undermine is as democratic and the prospect of a peace European in outlook as with Palestinians. Malta, Cyprus or indeed Turkey, a candidate for But how? The 26 make If there is to be peace, a way has to be found to resolve the status of Jerusalem as the capital of two states membership. In terms some underwhelming of defence capability suggestions: exclude goods produced in Such a move would complement existing and technological know-how, Israel’s settlements from preferential trade deals initiatives, and help revive both the Bush- contribution would be disproportionate to its (easier said than done); refer the question era roadmap of 2003 and the Arab peace size. What of the Palestinians? They count to the UN if America’s indirect diplomacy initiative of the previous year, both now as a justifiable exception. They are, on yields no results by April 2011 (wrong target; semi-forgotten. It would help Israelis and the whole, the most democratic, dynamic the problem is not lack of mediation, but Palestinians focus on what they have to and globalised people in the Arab world. lack of political will and trust among the gain, not just what they might lose, in a NATO has promised eventual membership parties); eventually cut back support to the compromise. By default, a succession to Georgia, and the EU is offering all the Palestinian Authority to make Israel ‘shoulder of promises becomes a succession of small states of the Balkans, including its obligations as the occupying power’ penalties for those who do not move along predominantly Muslim lands such as Albania (Palestinians would thus pay the ‘price tag’); the road to peace. and Kosovo, a ‘European perspective’. and no ‘enhancement or upgrading’ of EU- Would it be such a big deal to do the same for Israel relations while settlements continue There would be many objections to a Palestinians if it helps cement peace? And to expand (meaningless, given that relations European roadmap. One is that it will not work. even if Europe is a predominantly Christian are just about as tight as can be). Certainly, after a century of conflict between club, who could really object to the Arab and Jew in the Promised Land one inclusion of Jerusalem? The 26 are wrong to imply that the question should not expect quick solutions. But a of Palestine can be resolved just by European roadmap would help shape the There is, in all this, a question of historical applying greater pressure. If only it were framework for peace in the medium and justice. Zionism was born in Europe in so easy. Take one conundrum: even if an long term, and support peace-makers on response to European anti-Semitism; Israeli government could be browbeaten both sides. Two small states emerging from the contours of Israel and Palestine were into signing a deal with Mahmoud Abbas, a partition of the Holy Land should feel less carved out by the British Empire. The the Palestinian president, could its terms insecure if they were integrated into the embrace of the European family would be be imposed on Hamas, the radical Islamist Euro-Atlantic community. In my view, the an act of atonement. Nicola Casarini Research Fellow 6 OPINION EAST ASIA: TIME TO STEP UP THE EU’S POLITICAL PRESENCE

Many questions are being raised about peace region’s major powers, would have a direct the return of Hong Kong to China. The United and stability in East Asia following the recent bearing on the EU’s socio-economic welfare. Kingdom does however remain a member of the security developments in the region. It is an The question now is: should the EU step up its Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA), a area that generates more than a quarter of the political presence in the region? And if so, what military consultation agreement between Australia, EU’s trade with the world. Yet events in 2010 form should this enhanced involvement take? Malaysia, New Zealand and Singapore, while signalled a worsening of relations between China France also maintains an operational military and some of its neighbours, as well as between Although the EU is not perceived as a fully- presence in the Indian Ocean and the South China and the US; last year witnessed the crisis fledged political actor in the region, the Union and Pacific. And EU member states do sometimes on the Korean peninsula, the Sino-Japanese its Member States have been involved in East become enmeshed in East Asia’s military spat over the Senkaku/Diaoyou islands and rising Asia’s security since the 1990s. It is a member balance – though quite inadvertently – through tensions over territorial disputes in the South China of the multilateral security activities of the Asia the sale of arms and weapons systems: the Sea. A growing number of East Asian countries Regional Forum (ARF) and the Council for East Asian region has recently emerged as seem anxious about having to go it alone Security Cooperation in Asia-Pacific (CSCAP), one of the world’s largest developing markets alongside a powerful and increasingly for European arms sales. As these assertive China. As a result, its sales are mainly guided by market leaders are urging the US to forces, concerns for the region’s commit more fully into the region’s military balance are pretty much left in outstanding disputes and fledging Washington’s hands. institutions. Logghe/AP/SIPA Yves For the foreseeable future then, the US While China’s rise provides will likely remain the true guarantor of neighbouring countries with abundant stability in East Asia. Yet all this raises economic opportunities, its increasing the question: for how long can the EU assertiveness is raising security continue to free ride on US military concerns in the US – the guarantor involvement in the area, and given that of East Asia’s stability through its Cold it is one of the region’s most important War alliances – and among its allies trading partners, for how long can in the region. Indications abound it shy away from a more serious that China may intend to challenge commitment to regional security? US leadership in East Asia. One of It seems an opportune time for EU 17-7949 the key strategic challenges for the Catherine Ashton greets China’s Vice Premier Wang Qishan in Brussels policy makers to step up the Union’s region’s leaders in the years ahead will be finding and with the establishment of the Asia-Europe political presence in the region and make it an out how to accommodate China’s ascendancy Meeting (ASEM) in 1996, a ‘track-two’ has been important part of the strategic guidelines of EU into a regional security order built around the US initiated which includes a multilateral security foreign policy. system of alliances. dialogue on various levels between the EU and East Asia. Through the European Commission, Three elements would give political backing to the While changing power relations in East Asia the EU has also been a member of the Korean EU’s burgeoning economic presence in East Asia: complicate matters for the EU, so too do the Peninsula Energy Development Organisation (i) prioritise support for regionalism, including plans recent security developments. East Asia is home to (KEDO) since 1997. Moreover, the EU has for an East Asian community; (ii) further political some of the Union’s major trading partners: China successfully contributed to peace and security dialogues with East Asia’s major powers (China, is foremost among these, ranking second only to in the region; it assisted in the establishment of Japan, South Korea) and regional groupings the US (EU-China trade has risen dramatically in democratic governments in Cambodia and East (ASEAN), including support for confidence recent years and amounted to a massive €296 Timor and ensured the implementation of the building measures and joint multilateral initiatives; billion in 2009), while the EU is China’s most peace agreement between the government of (iii) beef up EU presence in the region through important trading partner. Japan is the EU’s sixth Indonesia and the Free Aceh Movement. the EEAS, but also consider a more punctual largest trading partner (€92 billion in 2009); South involvement such as appointing a Special Envoy Korea is the EU’s eighth largest trading partner But the EU is essentially a soft power in East for the Korean Peninsula whose mandate should (€53 billion in 2009), while the EU has become Asia. It is committed to supporting the protection include preparations for contingency plans in case South Korea’s second-largest export destination. of human rights and the spreading of democracy, the current status quo changes. To boot, the EU and South Korea signed a Free good governance, and the rule of law. The Trade Agreement (FTA) on 6 October 2010 – the European Commission has built global Despite the fact that the EU needs to consult closely most ambitious bilateral trade agreement ever partnerships and alliances with East Asian with the US, it should seek a more autonomous negotiated by the EU and the first with an Asian countries in international fora to help address the role. This way it can promote its expanding country. In addition to trade, East Asia has also challenges of the globalisation process and to economic interests alongside its fundamental been receiving increasing stocks of European address non-traditional security issues such as values. Furthermore, the region’s policymakers Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs). In this context the environment/climate change, migration, and are becoming increasingly interested in the EU of growing economic interdependence between terrorism. In terms of hard power, EU member model of interstate relations, in particular its the EU and East Asia, any turbulence and/or states have no permanent military forces in East experience in reconciling former foes. It would do

instability in the region, particularly among the Asia. The last permanent military forces left after well to capitalise on this. Printed by Corlet Imprimeur in Condé-sur-Noireau (France), Graphic design cooperation with Metropolis, 2009, Lisbon. ISSN 10