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Political Risk Update: May 13, 2020

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Political Risk Update: May 13, 2020 Political Risk Update: May 13, 2020 • Saudi Arabia: New austerity package may achieve less than the government hopes • Turkey: Government blames currency speculation for its own policy failings • Colombia: Airline failure may see government blamed for serious job losses • Argentina: Debt deal deadline extended as government bond offer fails • Malawi: Supreme Court ruling will encourage political opponents of the president Saudi Arabia: New austerity package may achieve less than the government hopes Event: On May 11, Riyadh announced an austerity package that triples VAT and slashes allowances to public sector workers in an attempt to rein in the fiscal deficit. Outlook: The increase in VAT will have a limited fiscal impact, particularly in the short term, as VAT revenue only accounts for a small proportion of government revenue and will be hit hard by the economic contraction. Overall spending may not fall as much as the announcement suggests, with capital expenditure potentially replaced by extra-budgetary sources. However, particular areas will be squeezed, and these are likely to include payments to government contractors and consultants. Analysis The aim of the new package is to tackle the rising fiscal deficit, which widened to nine billion dollars in the first quarter as oil prices began to fall. From July, value-added tax (VAT) will triple to 15%. On the spending side, from June, Riyadh will cancel the cost-of-living allowances that have been given to state employees since 2018 in attempt to manage dissent over the introduction of VAT. This should save around 5 billion dollars annually. However, the government has also announced new social and health spending plans, including a one-off 500-million-dollar Ramadan payment divided among social security recipients, as well as assistance to the private sector during the COVID-19 lockdown. The finance minister said large capital projects, including the crown prince's flagship developments, were "continuing" but now have longer timeframes.. Turkey: Government blames currency speculation for its own policy failings Event: The ban on three international banks trading in lira that was imposed on May 7 was lifted on May 11, according to the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK). Outlook: The lack of confidence in Ankara's policymaking has exacerbated a virus-driven general flight for safety from the lira. Cutting rates as the lira falls will deter foreign investors further and put more emphasis on domestic confidence. Analysis The BDDK said that BNP Paribas, Citibank, and UBS have met the lira liabilities they had defaulted on, although they are still being investigated for currency manipulation. When it imposed the ban, BDDK blamed false information and market manipulation for the lira plummeting towards 7.30 to the dollar, accusing "London-based financial institutions" of weakening the currency by borrowing lira to buy foreign exchange and then defaulting. After last week's fluctuations, the lira has steadied to around 7.08, similar to its close on May 8. The country’s central bank has spent nearly 20 billion dollars protecting the lira from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, but on April 22 cut its main policy rate by 1 percentage point to 8.75%, arguing an expansionary policy was needed. Colombia: Airline failure may see government blamed for serious job losses Event: Avianca Holdings, Colombia's national airline, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the United States on May 10 after missing a bond payment deadline. Outlook: The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are putting enormous pressure on Colombian state finances but Avianca's failure would be particularly devastating for the economy. Whatever the firm's future, widespread job losses look inevitable. Analysis The company, which was already carrying more than 7 billion dollars of debt in 2019, has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, reportedly losing more than 80% of its income. More than 140 of its aircraft have been grounded since March and most of its 21,000 employees have been furloughed. While several of Avianca's competitors have received state aid, the firm's request for a 1.2-billion-dollar rescue package from Colombia's government has so far gone unmet. The government sold its stake in Avianca in 2004, but the firm is still a source of national pride as both the world's second-oldest airline and the second largest in Latin America. The government will be blamed for failing to save it. Argentina: Debt deal deadline extended as government bond offer fails Event: On May 10, the government extended the deadline for restructuring talks to May 22, after its earlier deadline passed with no deal. Outlook: As the grace period on an unpaid 503-million-dollar interest payment expires on May 22 and will prompt a default if it is unmet, no further extension to the deadline is likely. While the government may have some narrow space to improve its original offer, the continuing impact of measures to combat the COVID-19 outbreak will limit its options. Analysis Although the government did not publish figures for acceptance of its original offer, the media have estimated it at only 12.4%; all the instruments to be reprogrammed require an acceptance rate of 66-85% for the swap to succeed. As the largest creditor groups had already rejected the government's 'take it or leave it' offer without making a counterproposal, Economy Minister Martin Guzman has now suggested that the government would be open to receiving offers. It looks increasingly as though the government may have to reduce the three-year grace period or the size of the write-down, or offer to raise interest rates paid on new bonds at a faster rate if it is to gain acceptance. Malawi: Supreme Court ruling will encourage political opponents of the president Event: On May 8, the country’s Supreme Court upheld the Constitutional Court ruling in February that nullified the 2019 election of President Peter Mutharika. Outlook: The ruling increases the opposition's chances of victory in a rerun of the election, currently scheduled for July. The mandated use of the 2019 register will ease worries about electoral manipulation, although there are still concerns that the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will engage in voter intimidation. While it will be a challenge to hold a credible new poll amid the current State of Disaster and a proposed nationwide lockdown to combat COVID-19, the expectation that President Mutharika will lose the next election means that a postponement risks more political unrest. Analysis The Supreme Court also upheld the interpretation that a winning presidential candidate must garner over 50% of the vote, rather than just a simple majority as in 2019, and confirmed that the 2019 electoral register must be used for the rerun of the election, in which only original candidates are allowed to stand. The need to win at least 50% of the vote would appear to help Mutharika, who last year won with 38% of the vote as the opposition vote split between Lazarus Chakwera of the main opposition Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and Vice-President Saulos Chilima of the United Transformation Movement (UTM). However, on May 10, Chilima reportedly stated that he would put his presidential ambitions "on pause" to back Chakwera and so allow the opposition to field a single candidate against Mutharika. Stay up to date with our latest reports The Political Risk Index - Winter 2019/20 The Terrorism Pool Index 2019 How are leading companies managing today’s political risks? COVID-19 Content Hub We are approaching the array of issues COVID-19 presents through the lenses of people, risk and capital, creating content daily in these three areas to help business better understand and manage the crisis. You can access this content here: access our content hub Willis Towers Watson (NASDAQ: WLTW) is a leading global advisory, broking and solutions company that helps clients around the world turn risk into a path for growth. With roots dating to 1828, Willis Towers Watson has 45,000 employees serving more than 140 countries and markets. We design and deliver solutions that manage risk, optimize benefits, cultivate talent, and expand the power of capital to protect and strengthen institutions and individuals. Our unique perspective allows us to see the critical intersections between talent, assets and ideas — the dynamic formula that drives business performance. Together, we unlock potential. Learn more at willistowerswatson.com. Follow us on social media Company Address 51 Lime Street, London, EC3M 7DQ, United Kingdom Copyright 2020 Willis Towers Watson .
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