DOCSLIB.ORG

Scottish Political Research April 2021

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Scottish Political Research April 2021 Lord Ashcroft Polls Scottish Political Research April 2021 2,017 adults in Scotland were interviewed online between 7 and 19 April 2021. Results have been weighted to be representative of all adults in Scotland. Full data tables are available at LordAshcroftPolls.com Eight online focus groups of voters in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Aberdeen and Ayr with a range of political views were held between 14 and 22 April 2021. Contents The Holyrood elections 3 Election issues 4 The pandemic 7 Parties and leaders 10 Independence 19 Lord Ashcroft Polls 2 The Holyrood elections We asked our poll respondents to rate how likely they were to use their first/constituency vote for each of the main political parties fighting the Holyrood election on a scale of 0-100. The SNP proved the most popular first vote choice among 49% of those who rated the likelihood of voting for at least one party at more than 50 out of 100. The Scottish Conservatives were the most popular choice of 21%, Scottish Labour the choice of 17%, Scottish Liberal Democrats the choice of 8% and the Scottish Greens the choice of 4%. The SNP also had the most intense support. The average likelihood to vote SNP among those leaning towards the party in the first vote was 93/100 compared with 90/100 for those leaning towards the Scottish Tories, 88/100 for Scottish Labour, 85/100 for the Scottish Liberal Democrats and 85/100 for the Scottish Greens. When it came to the second/list vote, the SNP were the most popular first vote choice for 42% of those who rated the likelihood of voting for at least one party at more than 50 out of 100. The Conservatives were the first choice for 22%, Labour 16%, the Greens 9%, the Lib Dems 7%, Alba and Reform UK each 2%. SNP support was less intense than in the first vote. Lord Ashcroft Polls 3 Election issues In our poll we offered respondents a choice of 25 issues facing Scotland and asked which issues they saw as the most important. Across the board Scottish voters listed healthcare and the NHS (43%) as well as Covid-19 (42%) as the most important issues facing Scotland, closely followed by the economy (33%). Focus groups often commented that the pandemic had dominated politics for the last year, with the Alex Salmond case and its aftermath being one of the few issues to break through. “The last thing to break through the covid noise was the Sturgeon/Salmond stuff. Covid has drowned out a lot of what would normally be pretty prevalent.” Lord Ashcroft Polls 4 However, the debate over independence remained the backdrop to Scottish political debate. A new referendum on Scottish independence was the one key issue that managed to stand out during the pandemic for voters. A third of SNP supporters – those who said they were likely to place their first vote for SNP in the 2021 Holyrood elections – said that getting another referendum on Scottish independence was among the three most important issues (34%). On the other hand, two fifths of Scottish Conservatives supporters – those who said they were likely to place their First Vote for the Scottish Conservatives in the 2021 Holyrood elections – named preventing another Scottish independence referendum among their top three (42%). Focus group participants often said they regretted that the independence debate crowded out issues like health, education and poverty, which they felt were in urgent need of attention – though some mentioned other SNP policies that they liked, including childcare, free prescriptions, and transport infrastructure. “All of our elections are generally around independence. We don't look as much at the social issues or things that need change or even the things that SNP aren't doing quite as well. It's such an important thing to everybody up here, no matter what side that you're on for it. Other things just tend to get drowned out. So, it just tends to be SNP for independence or someone else if you're against it.” “The fixation on independence has been at the cost of almost everything else – education, bin collections, potholes in the roads. We’re starting to resemble a third-world country in some parts of Scotland. Everything else has suffered because of this single-minded fixation on independence.” “I like what they’ve done with education in terms of free childcare places and free school meals. I’ve got two kids so that’s a huge impact for me.” Each party’s position on independence was the most important issue when it came to deciding how to vote in the Holyrood elections. Over a third of Scottish Conservatives supporters said it was the most important issue for them (36%), and just below a fifth of SNP supporters said the same (23%). Scottish voters also stated that the overall competence of the party (20%) and the vision for Scotland’s future (16%) were key factors in deciding which party to vote for. “The timing of trying to push for another independence referendum. Mentioning that she’s going to be going for that again is taking a bit of focus away from the Holyrood elections. It’s become divisive – it’s no longer voting for what you want for Scotland or how it’s run, you’re either voting for independence again right now or you’re voting against it.” “I want to be influenced in other ways. I would happily be convinced by the Labour party and I’ve voted Green in the past as well. I don’t want to hear the same arguments about independence. I’m going to make an informed choice regarding that. There’s a bigger picture to me.” “I’ll do what I need to get independence, but I think that after that I would have to sit down and look at it again and say, ‘who is it I actually want to run the country?’ So, for me at the moment, it’s tactical in terms of ‘let’s get independence done and then who’s going to offer the best option for us going forward if that happens?’” “In an ideal world it should be decided on education, the economy and so on. But unfortunately, we’re in a situation in Scotland where every election is constitutional and until that changes, I don’t think we’ll ever move forward. Everything is dwarfed by the Yes-No question.” “I feel like the SNP are the only party that will keep Scotland free of the Tories. They’re a good buffer. You almost want an antagonistic government in Scotland, otherwise the Tories will just do whatever they can get away with.” Lord Ashcroft Polls 5 Lord Ashcroft Polls 6 The pandemic Well over half of voters also believed the Scottish Government (60%), the SNP (54%) and Nicola Sturgeon (64%) herself had handled the covid pandemic well. Voters across the board – SNP, Scottish Greens, Scottish Labour, Scottish Liberal Democrats and even a third (32%) of Scottish Conservatives supporters – felt Nicola Sturgeon had done a good job as First Minster during the crisis. Over half of Scottish voters thought the UK Government and the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, had responded to the pandemic poorly, compared to just below a fifth believing that they had responded well. This was reflected in our focus groups, where participants often contrasted Sturgeon’s approach to that of Johnson and the Westminster government, which they often thought vague or chaotic. This was true of voters on all sides, who often mentioned the clarity of Sturgeon’s daily briefings. Some felt she was prevented from taking further steps by London, especially on international travel and the border with England. However, some felt Sturgeon’s daily TV appearances had turned into an exercise in party politics or self-promotion. They also noted that her decision to lift some restrictions early coincided with the Holyrood election campaign. “I think we've done a better job dealing with it. To be fair, everybody was blindfolded so it was probably trial and error. But I feel Nicola Sturgeon has been more structured in how she dealt with the situation and never made false promises or skirted around things. I think she was quite firm in how she put across this is what will be happening, this is when you will get told. And so I actually admired her in the pandemic I’ve got to say.” “I felt like I felt like she showed up every day. She showed up and gave her speech. And you know one of her speeches, I think it was when was it she just showed a personal side – there was a Scottish word she used, and it was hilarious. ‘I’m scunnered, I’m gutted we cannot go out this weekend. I think it was a bank holiday weekend. And I think she was so personal. But it was just I think she just showed up every single day.” “The fact that she was so visible, she was on television giving daily briefings, giving figures, talking about the next steps. That went a long way for me. She’s always been frontline and transparent and saying she would love to lock down Scotland and not allow anybody in from other countries, but that’s Westminster.” “She seemed to take action on her MPs who strayed. She didn’t have a Dominic Cummings moment, she decided to punish people who broke the rules.” “She’s committed to being on TV every day. In the early stages of the pandemic the daily broadcast was very informative.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • League Information
    Leagues at Woodcrest Golf Club General League Guidelines Leagues start as early as the last week of April and end as late as the first week in September, are typically 16 weeks unless changed by Woodcrest Golf Club or the participating league and are typically a minimum of 24 players unless approved by Woodcrest Golf Club. Substitutes, where allowed by leagues, playing for a Woodcrest Member are required to pay the weekly per person League Greens Fee Rate. Woodcrest Golf Club will be the final arbiter of when the golf course is or is not playable. No more than four (4) players are allowed in any group. Tee times are scheduled consecutively for the 1st and 10th tees. Starting on any other hole is not allowed. What we guarantee you: Tee Times Guaranteed recurring tee times will be scheduled on a weekly basis according to a posted League Schedule. If outside tournaments are scheduled that interfere with the leagues scheduled tee times, alternate tee times or a cancellation for that week will be scheduled. Woodcrest Golf Club will make every attempt to notify the leagues in a timely fashion should this situation occur. The same is true for holidays falling on league nights. Please note that when a week has been skipped due to holiday or an outside club event that the league will end up playing the same nine holes for two consecutive league nights. Greens Fees and Cart Fees Fees for league play are a current special reduced greens fee rate and are due for each league participant who is not a Woodcrest Golf Club member.
    [Show full text]
  • New Conference 2017.Indd
    SCOTTISH GREENS AUTUMN CONFERENCE 2017 CONFERENCE LEADING THE CHANGE 21-22 October 2017 Contents 3. Welcome to Edinburgh 24. Sunday timetable 4. Welcome to Conference 26. Running order: Sunday 5. Guest speakers 28. Sunday events listings 6. How Conference works 32. Exhibitor information 10. Running order: Saturday 36. Venue maps 12. Child protection 40. Get involved! 13. Saturday events listings 41. Conference song 22. Saturday timetable 42. Exhibitor information Welcome to Edinburgh! I am pleased to be able to welcome you to the beautiful City of Edinburgh for the Scottish Green Party Autumn Conference. It’s been a challenging and busy year: firstly the very successful Local Council Elections, and then the snap General Election to test us even further. A big thank you to everyone involved. And congratulations – we have made record gains across the country electing more councillors than ever before! It is wonderful to see that Green Party policies have resonated with so many people across Scotland. We now have an opportunity to effect real change at a local level and make a tangible difference to people’s lives. At our annual conference we are able to further develop and shape our policies and debate the important questions that form our Green Party message. On behalf of the Edinburgh Greens, welcome to the Edinburgh Conference. Evelyn Weston, Co-convenor Edinburgh Greens 3 Welcome to our 2017 Autumn Conference! Welcome! We had a lot to celebrate at last year’s conference, with our best Holyrood election in more than a decade. This year we’ve gone even further, with the best council election in our party’s history.
    [Show full text]
  • Green Parties and Elections to the European Parliament, 1979–2019 Green Par Elections
    Chapter 1 Green Parties and Elections, 1979–2019 Green parties and elections to the European Parliament, 1979–2019 Wolfgang Rüdig Introduction The history of green parties in Europe is closely intertwined with the history of elections to the European Parliament. When the first direct elections to the European Parliament took place in June 1979, the development of green parties in Europe was still in its infancy. Only in Belgium and the UK had green parties been formed that took part in these elections; but ecological lists, which were the pre- decessors of green parties, competed in other countries. Despite not winning representation, the German Greens were particularly influ- enced by the 1979 European elections. Five years later, most partic- ipating countries had seen the formation of national green parties, and the first Green MEPs from Belgium and Germany were elected. Green parties have been represented continuously in the European Parliament since 1984. Subsequent years saw Greens from many other countries joining their Belgian and German colleagues in the Euro- pean Parliament. European elections continued to be important for party formation in new EU member countries. In the 1980s it was the South European countries (Greece, Portugal and Spain), following 4 GREENS FOR A BETTER EUROPE their successful transition to democracies, that became members. Green parties did not have a strong role in their national party systems, and European elections became an important focus for party develop- ment. In the 1990s it was the turn of Austria, Finland and Sweden to join; green parties were already well established in all three nations and provided ongoing support for Greens in the European Parliament.
    [Show full text]
  • GREEN YOUTH for a GLOBAL GREEN CHANGE Documentation
    GREEN YOUTH FOR A GLOBAL GREEN CHANGE Documentation of the 2nd Global Young Greens Congress Berlin, 8th to 14th of August 2010 Dear readers! 3 A short history of the Global Young Greens 4 HISTORY 2nd Congress 8 programmE 9 Regional Meetings 10 Workshops 12 the perspectives of small content scale farming and the agricultural issues 16 Green New Deal – A Concept for a Global Economic Change? 17 Impressions 18 General Assembly of GYG Congress Berlin 2010 20 Summary of our Structure Reform 21 GYG in Action 22 Passed Proposals 23 Statements 25 Participants 26 Introduction of the new Steering Committee 28 Plans 32 THANK-YOU‘S 30 IMPRINT 31 2 global young greens—Congress 2010 Dear readers! We proudly present to you the documentation of the 2nd Global Young Greens Congress held in Berlin from 8th to 14th of August 2010! More than 100 participants from over 50 countries spent five days of discussing as well as exchanging opinions and experiences from their homecountries in order to get closer together and fight with “Youth Power for a Global Green Change“. Workshops, fishbowl discussions and a world café were organised as parts of the congress. The debated topics were endless – reaching from economics and gender issues to social justice, peace and conflicts and - of course - climate change. After three days of debating, two days of General Assem- bly followed. In this, new structures were adopted as well as several topical proposals to form a wider political platform. With this documentation, we are trying to show what the congress was about and what was behind.
    [Show full text]
  • 2011-Holyrood-Manifesto.Pdf
    SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT MANIFESTO 2011 This is a crucial election. UK Ministers are cutting our public services, and all the other Holyrood parties are debating how to do exactly the same. Governments of all colours in London and Edinburgh have neglected our environment, let inequality widen, and narrowed our politics. Only Greens are offering an alternative to this failed agenda. We’ll raise revenue from the wealthy and from big business, and invest in the things that matter. We think the Scottish Parliament was created for this. We’ll protect Scotland’s public services, and build the low-carbon economy the others only talk about, to cut energy bills, create jobs and tackle climate change. If you agree, make your 2nd vote Green on 5th May 2011. TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 3 A Green alternative to public service cuts 4 Local roots for a local economy 6 Building a fairer and more sustainable economy 8 Secure, safe and sustainable energy 10 A public transport renaissance 12 Caring for our most valuable natural assets 14 Education as a social good to be funded collectively 16 Supporting Scotland’s diverse communities 18 A healthy society, not just one that picks up the pieces 20 Promoting justice and crime prevention 22 A deeper devolution and a responsible Scotland 24 THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A MORE IMPORTANT TIME TO VOTE GREEN he Scottish Green Party has been a part of Scotland has an alternative. Even within existing devolved Scottish devolution since the beginning. We have powers, Greens believe that it’s possible to protect public Tconsistently brought a fresh approach to politics, services, build the inclusive good society which people and a challenge to the other political parties on the crucial in Scotland want to live in, and invest in the skills and issues which our world faces.
    [Show full text]
  • Dimensions and Alignments in European Union Politics: Cognitive Constraints and Partisan Responses
    Working Paper Series in European Studies Volume 1, Number 3 Dimensions and Alignments in European Union Politics: Cognitive Constraints and Partisan Responses DR. SIMON HIX DEPARTMENT OF GOVERNMENT LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE Houghton Street London, WC2A 2AE United Kingdom ([email protected]) EDITORIAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE: GILLES BOUSQUET KEITH COHEN COLLEEN DUNLAVY ANDREAS KAZAMIAS LEON LINDBERG ELAINE MARKS ANNE MINER ROBERT OSTERGREN MARK POLLACK GREGORY SHAFFER MARC SILBERMAN JONATHAN ZEITLIN Copyright © 1998 All rights reserved. No part of this paper may be reproduced in any form without permission of the author. European Studies Program, International Institute, University of Wisconsin--Madison Madison, Wisconsin http://polyglot.lss.wisc.edu/eur/ 1 Dimensions and Alignments in European Union Politics: Cognitive Constraints and Partisan Responses Simon Hix Department of Government, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, United Kingdom Abstract As the European Union (EU) has evolved, the study agenda has shifted from ‘European integration’ to ‘EU politics’. Missing from this new agenda, however, is an understanding of the ‘cognitive constraints’ on actors, and how actors respond: i.e. the shape of the EU ‘political space’ and the location of social groups and competition between actors within this space. The article develops a theoretical framework for understanding the shape of the EU political space (the interaction between an Integration-Independence and a Left-Right dimension and the location of class and sectoral groups within this map), and tests this framework on the policy positions of the Socialist, Christian Democrat and Liberal party leaders between 1976 and 1994 (using the techniques of the ECPR Party Manifestos Group Project).
    [Show full text]
  • ESS9 Appendix A3 Political Parties Ed
    APPENDIX A3 POLITICAL PARTIES, ESS9 - 2018 ed. 3.0 Austria 2 Belgium 4 Bulgaria 7 Croatia 8 Cyprus 10 Czechia 12 Denmark 14 Estonia 15 Finland 17 France 19 Germany 20 Hungary 21 Iceland 23 Ireland 25 Italy 26 Latvia 28 Lithuania 31 Montenegro 34 Netherlands 36 Norway 38 Poland 40 Portugal 44 Serbia 47 Slovakia 52 Slovenia 53 Spain 54 Sweden 57 Switzerland 58 United Kingdom 61 Version Notes, ESS9 Appendix A3 POLITICAL PARTIES ESS9 edition 3.0 (published 10.12.20): Changes from previous edition: Additional countries: Denmark, Iceland. ESS9 edition 2.0 (published 15.06.20): Changes from previous edition: Additional countries: Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden. Austria 1. Political parties Language used in data file: German Year of last election: 2017 Official party names, English 1. Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (SPÖ) - Social Democratic Party of Austria - 26.9 % names/translation, and size in last 2. Österreichische Volkspartei (ÖVP) - Austrian People's Party - 31.5 % election: 3. Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (FPÖ) - Freedom Party of Austria - 26.0 % 4. Liste Peter Pilz (PILZ) - PILZ - 4.4 % 5. Die Grünen – Die Grüne Alternative (Grüne) - The Greens – The Green Alternative - 3.8 % 6. Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (KPÖ) - Communist Party of Austria - 0.8 % 7. NEOS – Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (NEOS) - NEOS – The New Austria and Liberal Forum - 5.3 % 8. G!LT - Verein zur Förderung der Offenen Demokratie (GILT) - My Vote Counts! - 1.0 % Description of political parties listed 1. The Social Democratic Party (Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs, or SPÖ) is a social above democratic/center-left political party that was founded in 1888 as the Social Democratic Worker's Party (Sozialdemokratische Arbeiterpartei, or SDAP), when Victor Adler managed to unite the various opposing factions.
    [Show full text]
  • ALLIANCE 90/THE GREENS: Party Program and Principles the Future Is Green
    The future is green. ALLIANCE 90/THE GREENS: Party Program and Principles The future is green. ALLIANCE 90/THE GREENS: Party Program and Principles Preamble 7 I. Our values 7 Ecology is sustainability 8 Freedom is realised through self-determination 8 Extending equitability 9 Democracy is the basis 10 The touchstone of our values: Human rights and non-violence 11 II. Challenges in a changing world 12 III. Where we come from – who we are 16 IV. Twelve for 2020 17 Towards the ecological age 18 I. The fundamental principles of our environmental policy 19 II. Sustainable development as a principle for action 20 III. Economical use of resources and the efficiency revolution 21 IV. Ecology and lifestyle 22 V. New energy – from the fossil and nuclear age to the solar future 22 A key project: Towards the solar age 24 Sustainable development in towns and local areas 25 VI. Environmentally-friendly traffic systems 27 A key project: Ecologically mobile 29 1 The future is green. VII. Nature and landscape conservancy 30 VIII. Animals need rights 31 IX. A global perspective for the environment and development 32 Towards an ecological and social market economy 34 I. The foundations of our economic policy 35 A key project: The future of a united Germany 38 II. Market economy and regulative policy 39 A key project: Transparency for consumers 40 III. Ecological fiscal reform 40 IV. Consumer protection 41 V. The knowledge economy 41 VI. Regional economies 42 A key project: A new form of agriculture 43 VII. A sustainable fiscal policy 45 VIII.
    [Show full text]
  • The Charter and Constitution of the Australian Greens May 2020 Charter
    The Charter and Constitution of the Australian Greens May 2020 Charter .......................................................................................................................................................................3 Basis of The Charter ..............................................................................................................................................3 Ecology ..................................................................................................................................................................3 Democracy.............................................................................................................................................................3 Social Justice .........................................................................................................................................................3 Peace ....................................................................................................................................................................3 An Ecologically Sustainable Economy ....................................................................................................................4 Meaningful Work ....................................................................................................................................................4 Culture ...................................................................................................................................................................4
    [Show full text]
  • International Greens
    GPUS STRATEGIC PLAN 2013 REPORT INTERNATIONAL GREEN PARTIES 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Greens in Countries With Proportional Rep vs. Winner-Take-All ............................................................................................................. 3 How Canada Beat The System ................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Expansive Platform Outreach ................................................................................................................................................................. 4 Targeting Races and Resources .............................................................................................................................................................. 4 Policy Development .................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Policy Decision-making In Various Countries ........................................................................................................................................... 5 Overall Decision Making Structure ............................................................................................................................................................ 8 Membership .............................................................................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Challenger Party List
    Appendix List of Challenger Parties Operationalization of Challenger Parties A party is considered a challenger party if in any given year it has not been a member of a central government after 1930. A party is considered a dominant party if in any given year it has been part of a central government after 1930. Only parties with ministers in cabinet are considered to be members of a central government. A party ceases to be a challenger party once it enters central government (in the election immediately preceding entry into office, it is classified as a challenger party). Participation in a national war/crisis cabinets and national unity governments (e.g., Communists in France’s provisional government) does not in itself qualify a party as a dominant party. A dominant party will continue to be considered a dominant party after merging with a challenger party, but a party will be considered a challenger party if it splits from a dominant party. Using this definition, the following parties were challenger parties in Western Europe in the period under investigation (1950–2017). The parties that became dominant parties during the period are indicated with an asterisk. Last election in dataset Country Party Party name (as abbreviation challenger party) Austria ALÖ Alternative List Austria 1983 DU The Independents—Lugner’s List 1999 FPÖ Freedom Party of Austria 1983 * Fritz The Citizens’ Forum Austria 2008 Grüne The Greens—The Green Alternative 2017 LiF Liberal Forum 2008 Martin Hans-Peter Martin’s List 2006 Nein No—Citizens’ Initiative against
    [Show full text]
  • GERMAN GREENS in COALITION GOVERNMENTS a Political Analysis
    GERMAN GREENS IN COALITION GOVERNMENTS A Political Analysis by Arne Jungjohann 1 GERMAN GREENS IN COALITION GOVERNMENTS A Political Analysis A Political Analysis A Political German Greens in Coalition Governments German Greens in Coalition Governments A Political Analysis By Arne Jungjohann Published by the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union English version published with the support of the Green European Foundation About the author CONTENTS Arne Jungjohann is an energy analyst and political scientist. He advises foundations, think tanks, and civil society in communication and strategy building for climate and energy policy. Previously, he worked for Minister President Winfried Kretschmann of Baden-Württemberg, the Heinrich Böll Foundation in Washington DC, in the German Bundestag, and in the family owned business. As its editor he launched the most influential English Twitter account on the German Energiewende (@ EnergiewendeGER). He co-authored ‘Energy Democracy: Germany’s Energiewende to Renewables’ Foreword 7 (Palgrave Macmillan 2016). Arne is a member of the Green Academy, a network with leading thinkers Foreword by the author 9 from science, politics and civil society which is facilitated by the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung. He is the founder of the local chapter of the German Green Party in Washington DC and lives in Stuttgart. He studied at Philipps University Marburg and at the Free University of Berlin. 1 Introduction 11 1.1 State of the research and sources used 12 1.2 Lead Questions and Composition of the Study 14 2 Coalition Constellations 15 3 The Coalition Arena at State Level 19 3.1 Departmental Responsibilities of the Greens 19 3.2 Coalition Management in the G-states 26 3.2.1 The Bundesrat Clause 27 3.2.2 Coalition Personnel 28 3.2.3 Coalition Committees 30 You are free to share – copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format and adapt – remix, transform, and build upon the material.
    [Show full text]