Lord Ashcroft Polls Scottish Political Research April 2021 2,017 adults in Scotland were interviewed online between 7 and 19 April 2021. Results have been weighted to be representative of all adults in Scotland. Full data tables are available at LordAshcroftPolls.com Eight online focus groups of voters in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Aberdeen and Ayr with a range of political views were held between 14 and 22 April 2021. Contents The Holyrood elections 3 Election issues 4 The pandemic 7 Parties and leaders 10 Independence 19 Lord Ashcroft Polls 2 The Holyrood elections We asked our poll respondents to rate how likely they were to use their first/constituency vote for each of the main political parties fighting the Holyrood election on a scale of 0-100. The SNP proved the most popular first vote choice among 49% of those who rated the likelihood of voting for at least one party at more than 50 out of 100. The Scottish Conservatives were the most popular choice of 21%, Scottish Labour the choice of 17%, Scottish Liberal Democrats the choice of 8% and the Scottish Greens the choice of 4%. The SNP also had the most intense support. The average likelihood to vote SNP among those leaning towards the party in the first vote was 93/100 compared with 90/100 for those leaning towards the Scottish Tories, 88/100 for Scottish Labour, 85/100 for the Scottish Liberal Democrats and 85/100 for the Scottish Greens. When it came to the second/list vote, the SNP were the most popular first vote choice for 42% of those who rated the likelihood of voting for at least one party at more than 50 out of 100. The Conservatives were the first choice for 22%, Labour 16%, the Greens 9%, the Lib Dems 7%, Alba and Reform UK each 2%. SNP support was less intense than in the first vote. Lord Ashcroft Polls 3 Election issues In our poll we offered respondents a choice of 25 issues facing Scotland and asked which issues they saw as the most important. Across the board Scottish voters listed healthcare and the NHS (43%) as well as Covid-19 (42%) as the most important issues facing Scotland, closely followed by the economy (33%). Focus groups often commented that the pandemic had dominated politics for the last year, with the Alex Salmond case and its aftermath being one of the few issues to break through. “The last thing to break through the covid noise was the Sturgeon/Salmond stuff. Covid has drowned out a lot of what would normally be pretty prevalent.” Lord Ashcroft Polls 4 However, the debate over independence remained the backdrop to Scottish political debate. A new referendum on Scottish independence was the one key issue that managed to stand out during the pandemic for voters. A third of SNP supporters – those who said they were likely to place their first vote for SNP in the 2021 Holyrood elections – said that getting another referendum on Scottish independence was among the three most important issues (34%). On the other hand, two fifths of Scottish Conservatives supporters – those who said they were likely to place their First Vote for the Scottish Conservatives in the 2021 Holyrood elections – named preventing another Scottish independence referendum among their top three (42%). Focus group participants often said they regretted that the independence debate crowded out issues like health, education and poverty, which they felt were in urgent need of attention – though some mentioned other SNP policies that they liked, including childcare, free prescriptions, and transport infrastructure. “All of our elections are generally around independence. We don't look as much at the social issues or things that need change or even the things that SNP aren't doing quite as well. It's such an important thing to everybody up here, no matter what side that you're on for it. Other things just tend to get drowned out. So, it just tends to be SNP for independence or someone else if you're against it.” “The fixation on independence has been at the cost of almost everything else – education, bin collections, potholes in the roads. We’re starting to resemble a third-world country in some parts of Scotland. Everything else has suffered because of this single-minded fixation on independence.” “I like what they’ve done with education in terms of free childcare places and free school meals. I’ve got two kids so that’s a huge impact for me.” Each party’s position on independence was the most important issue when it came to deciding how to vote in the Holyrood elections. Over a third of Scottish Conservatives supporters said it was the most important issue for them (36%), and just below a fifth of SNP supporters said the same (23%). Scottish voters also stated that the overall competence of the party (20%) and the vision for Scotland’s future (16%) were key factors in deciding which party to vote for. “The timing of trying to push for another independence referendum. Mentioning that she’s going to be going for that again is taking a bit of focus away from the Holyrood elections. It’s become divisive – it’s no longer voting for what you want for Scotland or how it’s run, you’re either voting for independence again right now or you’re voting against it.” “I want to be influenced in other ways. I would happily be convinced by the Labour party and I’ve voted Green in the past as well. I don’t want to hear the same arguments about independence. I’m going to make an informed choice regarding that. There’s a bigger picture to me.” “I’ll do what I need to get independence, but I think that after that I would have to sit down and look at it again and say, ‘who is it I actually want to run the country?’ So, for me at the moment, it’s tactical in terms of ‘let’s get independence done and then who’s going to offer the best option for us going forward if that happens?’” “In an ideal world it should be decided on education, the economy and so on. But unfortunately, we’re in a situation in Scotland where every election is constitutional and until that changes, I don’t think we’ll ever move forward. Everything is dwarfed by the Yes-No question.” “I feel like the SNP are the only party that will keep Scotland free of the Tories. They’re a good buffer. You almost want an antagonistic government in Scotland, otherwise the Tories will just do whatever they can get away with.” Lord Ashcroft Polls 5 Lord Ashcroft Polls 6 The pandemic Well over half of voters also believed the Scottish Government (60%), the SNP (54%) and Nicola Sturgeon (64%) herself had handled the covid pandemic well. Voters across the board – SNP, Scottish Greens, Scottish Labour, Scottish Liberal Democrats and even a third (32%) of Scottish Conservatives supporters – felt Nicola Sturgeon had done a good job as First Minster during the crisis. Over half of Scottish voters thought the UK Government and the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, had responded to the pandemic poorly, compared to just below a fifth believing that they had responded well. This was reflected in our focus groups, where participants often contrasted Sturgeon’s approach to that of Johnson and the Westminster government, which they often thought vague or chaotic. This was true of voters on all sides, who often mentioned the clarity of Sturgeon’s daily briefings. Some felt she was prevented from taking further steps by London, especially on international travel and the border with England. However, some felt Sturgeon’s daily TV appearances had turned into an exercise in party politics or self-promotion. They also noted that her decision to lift some restrictions early coincided with the Holyrood election campaign. “I think we've done a better job dealing with it. To be fair, everybody was blindfolded so it was probably trial and error. But I feel Nicola Sturgeon has been more structured in how she dealt with the situation and never made false promises or skirted around things. I think she was quite firm in how she put across this is what will be happening, this is when you will get told. And so I actually admired her in the pandemic I’ve got to say.” “I felt like I felt like she showed up every day. She showed up and gave her speech. And you know one of her speeches, I think it was when was it she just showed a personal side – there was a Scottish word she used, and it was hilarious. ‘I’m scunnered, I’m gutted we cannot go out this weekend. I think it was a bank holiday weekend. And I think she was so personal. But it was just I think she just showed up every single day.” “The fact that she was so visible, she was on television giving daily briefings, giving figures, talking about the next steps. That went a long way for me. She’s always been frontline and transparent and saying she would love to lock down Scotland and not allow anybody in from other countries, but that’s Westminster.” “She seemed to take action on her MPs who strayed. She didn’t have a Dominic Cummings moment, she decided to punish people who broke the rules.” “She’s committed to being on TV every day. In the early stages of the pandemic the daily broadcast was very informative.