DOCSLIB.ORG

Forecasts of Economic Growth from the Bond and Stock Markets Author(S): Campbell R

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Forecasts of Economic Growth from the Bond and Stock Markets Author(S): Campbell R Forecasts of Economic Growth from the Bond and Stock Markets Author(s): Campbell R. Harvey Source: Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 45, No. 5 (Sep. - Oct., 1989), pp. 38-45 Published by: {cfa} Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/4479257 Accessed: 05-05-2019 02:53 UTC JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at https://about.jstor.org/terms is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Financial Analysts Journal This content downloaded from 24.240.33.116 on Sun, 05 May 2019 02:53:15 UTC All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms by Campbell R. Harvey Forecasts of Economic Growth from the Bond and Stock Markets Although both stock and bond market data contain information relevant for predicting GNP growth, the bond market delivers more accurate predictions. While yield curve measures are able to explain more than 30 per cent of the variation in economic growth over the 1953-89 period, stock market variables explain only about 5 per cent. Furthermore, forecasts based on the yield curve compare favorably with forecasts from leading econometric models, whereas forecasts from stock market models do not. Inasmuch as firms' earnings are positively correlated with economic growth, one might expect that stock prices would contain information about real economic activity. But variations in stock prices can reflect both changes in expected economic growth and changes in the perceived risk of stock cash flows. Investors' changing perceptions about the riskiness of cash flows can confound the information about expected economic growth. A yield-based forecast for the third quarter of 1989 through the third quarter of 1990 suggests a slowing of economic growth, but not zero or negative growth. T HE LINK BETWEEN ASSET markets and Similarly, the price of a share of stock is the real economic growth was formalized by discounted value of expected cash flows. The Irving Fisher.1 Fisher suggested that, in strength of the economy determines the magni- equilibrium, the one-year interest rate reflects tude of these cash flows. The price of equity the marginal value of income today in relation to thus reflects expectations of real activity, and its marginal value next year. The intuition is changes in the value of equity partially reflect straightforward. If a recession is expected next revisions in these expectations. year, there is an incentive to sacrifice today to This article measures the relevant information buy a one-year bond that pays off in the bad contained in the bond market and the stock times. The demand for the bond will bid up its market for forecasting real economic activity. price and lower its yield. The theory implies that Traditionally, the stock market is assumed to current real interest rates contain information contain important information about the future about expected economic growth. path of economic growth. The Standard & Poor's 500 stock price index (S&P 500) carries an important weight in the Department of Com- 1. Footnotes appear at end of article. merce's widely quoted index of leading indica- Campbell Harvey is Assistant Professor of Finance at Duke tors. Indeed, many forecasters predicted a re- University's Fuqua School of Business. cession for 1988 solely on the basis of the stock The author thanks Eugene Fama, Douglas Foster, Jill market crash in October 1987. The results pre- Fox, Leonard Silk and Robert Whaley for their helpful sented here suggest that the bond market re- suggestions. veals more information about future economic This article is based on a working paper by the author, "Yield Spreads, Stock Returns and Real Activity." Re- growth than the stock market. The bond market search for this paper was sponsored by a summer grant inforecasts also compare favorably with the pre- 1984 from the Center for Research in Security Prices at thedictions of seven major econometric forecasting University of Chicago. services. FINANCIAL ANALYSTS JOURNAL / SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 1989 O 38 This content downloaded from 24.240.33.116 on Sun, 05 May 2019 02:53:15 UTC All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms The Bond Market and Economic Growth X Expected Dividendst + j Modern asset pricing theories suggest a relation Stock Pricet = (1) between expected asset returns and investors' = 1 (1 +kY expected consumption plans.2 The underlying where k is the rate at which (risky) dividends are idea is that investors get more benefit from one discounted. It is usually assumed that k is dollar in a recession (when their consumption constant.8 levels are low) than from one dollar at the peak Recession means lower earnings and divi- of the business cycle (when their consumption dends for most equities. If investors make a is high). As a result, in good times people tend downward revision in their forecast of a firm's to invest in assets that will provide insurance, or earnings (or dividends) because they expect a a hedge, against an expected downturn in the recession, stock price, according to the above economy. The payoffs from these investments equation, will drop. Of course, a change in are designed to smooth consumption. equity valuation could also be caused by a Investment in a zero-coupon bond provides change in the discount rate. This may confound one example of trading consumption today for the information about real growth contained in consumption in the future. The intensity at stock returns. which people are trading today's consumption Although most agree that the stock market is for tomorrow's consumption is called the mar- an important indicator, its reliability has re- ginal rate of substitution. This rate of substitution cently been questioned. Some skepticism un- is driven by expectations about the state of the doubtedly stems from the strong economic economy (business cycle) and is reflected in growth in 1988, following the stock market asset prices.3 crash. A popular joke is that the stock market Consider the link between the rate of substi- correctly forecast nine of the last four recessions.9 tution and asset prices. If there is a growing Of course, an incorrect forecast of a recession is consensus of an economic downturn, investors no joke; it is important to assess the reliability of will want to buy long-term zero-coupon bonds the stock market as an economic indicator. and sell short-term bonds. Obviously, not ev- erybody can buy long term and sell short term. A Forecasting Model In order to make the other side of the market A version of the consumption-based asset pric- attractive, the price of the long-term bonds must ing model suggests a simple linear relation rise and the price of the short-term bonds fall. In between asset returns and the marginal rate of terms of yields to maturity, the yield curve will substitution. Many have explored this relation become flatter, or invert. using real personal consumption growth as a Asset pricing theory suggests that the slope of proxy for the marginal rate of substitution. The the yield curve may contain information about growth rate in real GNP could also be consid- investors' forecasts of economic growth.4 In- ered a proxy for unobservable consumption. In deed, the yield curve (measured as the differ- terms of yields to maturity, we can estimate this ence between a 10-year and a three-month as follows:10 yield) inverted in 1969, 1973, 1979 and 1981. These inversions preceded the last four reces- Growtht + lt + 5 = a + b(Yield Spread)t + ut + 5, (2) sions.5 where The Stock Market and Economic Growth Growth = growth in real (annual) GNP There is widespread agreement that the stock from quarter t + 1 to quarter market contains important information about t + 5, real economic activity. The Department of Com- Yield Spread = spread between long-term and short-term annualized merce includes the S&P composite as one of its yields to maturity observed 12 leading indicators of economic growth.6 at time t, Many empirical studies have measured the co- movement of stock returns and real economic u = an unanticipated result (re- activity.7 sidual) and a and b = fitted coefficients. The association between stock market and real activity originates with the fundamental The model suggests that b is the average risk valuation of equity: tolerance in the economy and a the average FINANCIAL ANALYSTS JOURNAL / SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 1989 O 39 This content downloaded from 24.240.33.116 on Sun, 05 May 2019 02:53:15 UTC All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms Figure A Annual GNP Growth and Lagged Five-Year Yield Spread 0.08 - 0.07 GNP Growth 0.06- 0.052 0.04 0.03- 0.02 5 58 66788 0.00 m - 0.01 -0.02 -Yield Spread - 0.03- - 0. 04 . .L.. 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 Year annual real economic growth when the term are also patterns in the returns that suggest that structure has a slope of zero. This is the model stocks lead GNP. However, the stock return used to forecast real economic growth. series are more volatile and have many more The forecasting model is evaluated using two false signals than the yield curve measures.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • C:\Working Papers\10550.Wpd
    NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF CORPORATE FINANCIAL REPORTING John R. Graham Campbell R. Harvey Shiva Rajgopal Working Paper 10550 http://www.nber.org/papers/w10550 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 June 2004 We thank the following people for suggestions about survey and interview design: Sid Balachandran, Phil Berger, Robert Bowen, Shuping Chen, Hemang Desai, Julie Edell, Gavan Fitzsimons, Michelle Hanlon, Frank Hodge, Jim Jiambalvo, Bruce Johnson, Jane Kennedy, Lisa Koonce, SP Kothari, Mark Leary, Baruch Lev, Bob Libby, John Lynch, John Martin, Dawn Matsumoto, Ed Maydew, Jeff Mitchell, Mort Pincus, Jim Porteba, Brian Turner, Terry Shevlin, Doug Skinner, K.R. Subramanyam, and especially Mark Nelson. We have also benefited from useful discussions with Michael Jensen. A special thanks to Chris Allen, Cheryl de Mesa Graziano, Dave Ikenberry, Jim Jiambalvo and Jennifer Koski, who helped us administer the survey and arrange some interviews. Mark Leary provided excellent research support, Andrew Frankel provided editorial assistance, and Tara Bowens and Anne Higgs provided data entry support. We thank Gary Previts, Josh Ronen, Shiva Shivakumar and seminar participants at Case Western University, Duke University, National Forum on Corporate Finance and the University of Washington for comments. Finally, we thank the financial executives who generously allowed us to interview them or who took time to fill out the survey. We acknowledge financial support from the John W. Hartman Center at Duke University and the University of Washington. Please address correspondence to John Graham ([email protected]), Campbell Harvey ([email protected]), or Shiva Rajgopal ([email protected]).
    [Show full text]
  • 'Most Reported Anomalies Fail to Hold
    Lu Zhang ‘Most reported anomalies Lu Zhang fail to hold up’ is Professor of Finance and The John W. Galbreath Chair at the Fisher College of Business of The Ohio State University. He is also a Lu Zhang is Professor of Finance and The John W. Galbreath Chair at the Fisher College of Business of The Ohio State University. For several Research Associate at the National Bureau of years, together with fellow researchers Kewei Hou and Chen Xue, he has been digging deeper into the robustness of dozens of market Economic Research and an Associate Editor of anomalies reported in the academic literature. In our Great Minds series, a set of interviews with renowned academics and investment Journal of Financial Economics and Journal experts, we asked him about this work that involved thorough fact-checking reported equity market anomalies. More generally, we also of Financial and Quantitative Analysis. He is asked him about factor investing and how investors should go about it. Founding President of Macro Finance Society, an international academic society devoted ‘A comparison of new factor models’, which compares our q-factor to advancing and disseminating high-quality Your recent research has focused on the replication of numerous model with their five-factor model on both conceptual and research at the intersection of financial academically-reported anomalies in equity markets. Could you empirical grounds.3 Our key evidence is that the q-factors subsume economics and macroeconomics. Before joining explain how this idea came about and what led you to under- their CMA and RMW factors, but their factors cannot subsume Ohio State in 2010, he taught at Stephen take this endeavor? ours in factor spanning tests.” M.
    [Show full text]
  • Marriner S. Eccles and the 1951 Treasury – Federal Reserve Accord: Lessons for Central Bank Independence
    Working Paper No. 747 Marriner S. Eccles and the 1951 Treasury – Federal Reserve Accord: Lessons for Central Bank Independence by Thorvald Grung Moe* Levy Economics Institute of Bard College January 2013 * Thorvald Grung Moe is a senior adviser at Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway, and a research associate at the Levy Economics Institute. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position of Norges Bank. The Levy Economics Institute Working Paper Collection presents research in progress by Levy Institute scholars and conference participants. The purpose of the series is to disseminate ideas to and elicit comments from academics and professionals. Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, founded in 1986, is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, independently funded research organization devoted to public service. Through scholarship and economic research it generates viable, effective public policy responses to important economic problems that profoundly affect the quality of life in the United States and abroad. Levy Economics Institute P.O. Box 5000 Annandale-on-Hudson, NY 12504-5000 http://www.levyinstitute.org Copyright © Levy Economics Institute 2013 All rights reserved ISSN 1547-366X ABSTRACT The 1951 Treasury – Federal Reserve Accord is an important milestone in central bank history. It led to a lasting separation between monetary policy and the Treasury’s debt-management powers, and established an independent central bank focused on price stability and macroeconomic stability. This paper revisits the history of the Accord and elaborates on the role played by Marriner Eccles in the events that led up to its signing. As chairman of the Fed Board of Governors since 1934, Eccles was also instrumental in drafting key banking legislation that enabled the Federal Reserve System to take on a more independent role after the Accord.
    [Show full text]
  • Foreign Capital and Economic Growth in the First Era of Globalization
    NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES FOREIGN CAPITAL AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE FIRST ERA OF GLOBALIZATION Michael D. Bordo Christopher M. Meissner Working Paper 13577 http://www.nber.org/papers/w13577 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 November 2007 Comments from Olivier Jeanne, Paolo Mauro, Brian Pinto, Moritz Schularick and conference participants at the World Bank, Strasbourg Cliometrics, the World Economy and Global Finance Conference at Warwick and the Conference on Globalization and Democracy at Princeton University were very helpful. Seminar audiences at Carlos III, Manchester University, Nova University Lisbon, Paris School of Economics, and Trinity College Dublin also provided generous feedback on an earlier version. Antonio David and Wagner Dada provided excellent research assistance for early data collection. We thank Michael Clemens, David Leblang, Moritz Schularick, Alan Taylor, and Jeff Williamson for help with or use of their data. The financial assistance from the UK’s ESRC helped build some of the data set that underlies this paper and supported this research. We acknowledge this with pleasure. Errors remain our responsibility. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. © 2007 by Michael D. Bordo and Christopher M. Meissner. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Foreign Capital and Economic Growth in the First Era of Globalization Michael D. Bordo and Christopher M. Meissner NBER Working Paper No.
    [Show full text]
  • A Father of Modern Finance
    A Father of Modern Finance Eugene F. Fama, the consummate researcher in his 50 years at Booth, changed the way generations look at the stock market. His rigorous standards have elevated the work of students and colleagues. By Rebecca Rolfes An undergraduate at Tufts University in 1959, Eugene F. Fama,, had moved on from a major in French to economics and was a newlywed in need of an income. The late Harry Ernst, an economics professor who had a stock market forecasting service on the side, hired Fama to devise ways to anticipate changes in stock market prices. The formulas Fama came up with worked with historical data but never worked when he tested them going forward. It took him a while to figure out the problem, but when he did, he reshaped finance. Fama, by 1964 a PhD student at Chicago Booth, figured out that you can't beat the market because prices already incorporate the information in easily available signals. Competing traders will seize on any reliable piece of information that prices will rise tomorrow and bid up prices today until they reflect that knowledge. Fama quickly realized that this simple insight had important and unanticipated implications for finance. His dissertation, "The Behavior of Stock Market Prices," followed by "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," published in the Journal of Finance in 1970, revolutionized empirical work in finance and the understanding of financial markets. Fama's work provides the intellectual underpinnings for passively-managed and indexed mutual funds - paving the way for a new approach to investing.
    [Show full text]
  • A Test of the International CAPM Using Business Cycles Indicators As Instrumental Variables
    This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: The Internationalization of Equity Markets Volume Author/Editor: Jeffrey A. Frankel, editor Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-26001-1 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/fran94-1 Conference Date: October 1-2, 1993 Publication Date: January 1994 Chapter Title: A Test of the International CAPM Using Business Cycles Indicators as Instrumental Variables Chapter Author: Bernard Dumas Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c6271 Chapter pages in book: (p. 23 - 58) 1 A Test of the International CAPM Using Business Cycles Indicators as Instrumental Variables Bernard Dumas 1.1 Introduction Previous work by Dumas and Solnik (1993) has shown that a CAPM which incorporates foreign-exchange risk premia (a so-called international CAPM) is better capable empirically of explaining the structure of worldwide rates of return than is the classic CAPM. The test was performed on the conditional version of the two competing CAPMs. By that is meant that moments of rates of return were allowed to vary over time in relation to a number of lagged “instrumental variables.” Dumas and Solnik used instrumental variables which were endogenous or “internal” to the financial market (lagged world market portfolio rate of return, dividend yield, bond yield, short-term rate of interest). In the present paper, I aim to use as instruments economic variables which are “external” to the financial market, such as leading indicators of business cycles. This is an attempt to explain the behavior of the international stock market on the basis of economically meaningful variables which capture “the state of the economy.” The stock market is widely regarded as the best predictor of itself.
    [Show full text]
  • Dismiss MMT at Your Peril
    June 2019 Dismiss MMT at Your FURTHER READING Peril April 2019 By Chris Brightman, CFA Strike the Right Balance in Multi-Factor Strategy Don’t dismiss Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) as unlikely to influence Design policy. This heterodox economic doctrine advocates sharply increased fiscal Feifei Li, PhD, FRM, and Joseph Shim expenditures backed by money creation. An alluring promise of MMT is that it directly confronts a perceived flaw in today’s conduct of monetary policy: February 2019 Alice’s Adventures in Factorland: Three Key Points Blunders That Plague 1. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) argues that governments with fiat Factor Investing currencies should coordinate treasury and central bank actions to fund Campbell Harvey, PhD, Rob Arnott, government programs by directly printing money, unconstrained by tax Vitali Kalesnik, PhD, and receipts or borrowing capacity. Juhani Linnainmaa, PhD 2. Progressive politicians embrace MMT because the doctrine allows them CONTACT US to advocate substantial increases in social spending without imposing Web: www.researchaffiliates.com the taxes traditionally assumed necessary to fund such spending. Americas 3. MMT is attracting a growing following because it also promises to Phone: +1.949.325.8700 reverse the contribution to wealth inequality of today’s conventional Email: [email protected] monetary policy. Australasia Phone: +6.129.160.2290 4. Historical experience with policies similar to MMT has resulted in Email: [email protected] periods of high and volatile inflation, which depresses the real returns of Europe mainstream stocks and bonds. Phone: +44.0.203.929.9880 Email: [email protected] 5. Savers and investors may wish to revise financial plans to allow for Press the heightened risk of inflation given that policies influenced by MMT Phone: +1.212.207.9450 appear to be increasingly likely.
    [Show full text]
  • Empirical Asset Pricing Reading List
    B9311Asset Pricing II Spring 2009 Course Outline and Syllabus Contact Information: Professor Robert Hodrick Uris Hall 414 Ph: 212-854-3413 Email: [email protected] Office Hours: I am usually available right after class. Otherwise, please email for an appointment. Description The course provides an introduction to empirical work on the asset pricing side of financial economics. We will cover a combination of financial and econometric theory, and this year’s focus will be on international financial applications. The field itself is vast, but we will focus on two core ideas: 1. time-series properties of asset returns, such as predictability, volatility, and correlations with other variables. 2. cross-sectional properties of asset returns implied by equilibrium asset pricing models. We will also examine some discrete time term structure models and consider their implications for exchange rates as well as interest rates. The course does not cover empirical tests of derivative pricing models, and it concentrates on discrete-time methods. We leave pricing of complex derivatives and continuous-time methods to other courses. To examine these ideas, we will use a variety of econometric techniques including GMM, maximum likelihood, Bayesian methods, and various time-series models. We view these econometric techniques as a way to answer economic questions, rather than as interesting econometric methodologies, per se. The class is designed to complement Asset Pricing I. Whereas Asset Pricing I took a theoretical approach, this class will cover many of the same topics from an empirical perspective. 1 Prerequisites The course is designed for second year doctoral students in finance. The pre-requisites are Econometrics, Financial Econometrics and Finance Theory I.
    [Show full text]
  • Efficient Capital Markets: II
    THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE * VOL. XLVI, NO. 5 * DECEMBER 1991 Efficient Capital Markets: II EUGENE F. FAMA* SEQUELSARE RARELYAS good as the originals, so I approach this review of the market efflciency literature with trepidation. The task is thornier than it was 20 years ago, when work on efficiency was rather new. The literature is now so large that a full review is impossible, and is not attempted here. Instead, I discuss the work that I find most interesting, and I offer my views on what we have learned from the research on market efficiency. I. The Theme I take the market efficiency hypothesis to be the simple statement that security prices fully reflect all available information. A precondition for this strong version of the hypothesis is that information and trading costs, the costs of getting prices to reflect information, are always 0 (Grossman and Stiglitz (1980)). A weaker and economically more sensible version of the efficiency hypothesis says that prices reflect information to the point where the marginal benefits of acting on information (the profits to be made) do not exceed the marginal costs (Jensen (1978)). Since there are surely positive information and trading costs, the extreme version of the market efficiency hypothesis is surely false. Its advantage, however, is that it is a clean benchmark that allows me to sidestep the messy problem of deciding what are reasonable information and trading costs. I can focus instead on the more interesting task of laying out the evidence on the adjustment of prices to various kinds of information. Each reader is then free to judge the scenarios where market efficiency is a good approximation (that is, deviations from the extreme version of the efficiency hypothesis are within information and trading costs) and those where some other model is a better simplifying view of the world.
    [Show full text]
  • Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: a Survey
    NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES MONETARY POLICY IN EMERGING MARKETS: A SURVEY Jeffrey A. Frankel Working Paper 16125 http://www.nber.org/papers/w16125 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 June 2010 The author would like to thank Olivier Blanchard, Ben Friedman, Oyebola Olabisi, Eswar Prasad and participants at the ECB conference in October 2009, for comments on an earlier draft. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer- reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2010 by Jeffrey A. Frankel. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey Jeffrey A. Frankel NBER Working Paper No. 16125 June 2010 JEL No. E0,E5,F41,O16 ABSTRACT The characteristics that distinguish most developing countries, compared to large industrialized countries, include: greater exposure to supply shocks in general and trade volatility in particular, procyclicality of both domestic fiscal policy and international finance, lower credibility with respect to both price stability and default risk, and other imperfect institutions. These characteristics warrant appropriate models. Models of dynamic inconsistency in monetary policy and the need for central bank independence and commitment to nominal targets apply even more strongly to developing countries. But because most developing countries are price-takers on world markets, the small open economy model, with nontraded goods, is often more useful than the two-country two-good model.
    [Show full text]
  • The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting
    Version: January 11, 2005 The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting John R. Grahama, Campbell R. Harveya, b, and Shiva Rajgopalc a Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA b National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA c University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA Abstract We survey 401 financial executives, and conduct in-depth interviews with an additional 20, to determine the key factors that drive decisions related to performance measurement and voluntary disclosure. The majority of firms view earnings, especially EPS, as the key metric for an external audience, more so than cash flows. We find that the majority of managers would avoid initiating a positive NPV project if it meant falling short of the current quarter’s consensus earnings. Similarly, more than three-fourths of the surveyed executives would give up economic value in exchange for smooth earnings. Managers believe that missing an earnings target or reporting volatile earnings reduces the predictability of earnings, which in turn reduces stock price because investors and analysts dislike uncertainty. We also find that managers make voluntary disclosures to reduce information risk associated with their stock but at the same time, try to avoid setting a disclosure precedent that will be difficult to maintain. In general, management’s views support stock price motivations for earnings management and voluntary disclosure, but provide only modest evidence consistent with other theories of these phenomena (such as debt, political cost and bonus plan based hypotheses). JEL Classification: G35, G32, G34 Keywords: financial statement, earnings management, earnings benchmark, voluntary disclosure, information risk, earnings predictability, earnings smoothing, agency costs.
    [Show full text]
  • Explaining Returns with Cash-Flow Proxies
    NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES EXPLAINING RETURNS WITH CASH-FLOW PROXIES Peter Hecht Tuomo Vuolteenaho Working Paper 11169 http://www.nber.org/papers/w11169 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 March 2005 Earlier drafts of this paper were circulated under the titles “Stock return variation and expected dividends: a reinterpretation” and “Stock return variation and expected dividends: a comment.” Corresponding author: Peter Hecht, (617) 495 6171, [email protected]. We are indebted to John Cochrane, Eugene Fama, S.P. Kothari, Jay Shanken, and many anonymous referees for their suggestions. We would also like to thank Tom Berglund, Randy Cohen, George Constantinides, Campbell Harvey, J. B. Heaton, Jussi Keppo, Owen Lamont, Eva Liljeblom, Christopher Polk, William Schwert, Vesa Puttonen, Richard Thaler, and the seminar participants at the Swedish School of Economics and University of Chicago for helpful comments. Vuolteenaho wishes to thank the Foundation for Economic Education, the Emil Aaltonen Foundation, and the Oscar Mayer Foundation for financial support. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. © 2005 by Peter Hecht and Tuomo Vuolteenaho. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Explaining Returns with Cash-Flow Proxies Peter Hecht and Tuomo Vuolteenaho NBER Working Paper No. 11169 March 2005 JEL No. E440, G100, G120, G140, G350 ABSTRACT Stock returns are correlated with contemporaneous earnings growth, dividend growth, future real activity, and other cash-flow proxies.
    [Show full text]