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SES ADB Assistance for Domestic Capital Market Development

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SES ADB Assistance for Domestic Capital Market Development Evaluation Study Reference Number: SES: OTH 2008-36 Special Evaluation Study September 2008 ADB Assistance for Domestic Capital Market Development Operations Evaluation Department ABBREVIATIONS ADB – Asian Development Bank ADF – Asian Development Fund ASEAN – Association of Southeast Asian Nations CPS – country partnership strategy DFI – development finance institution DMC – developing member country ESW – economic and sector work FIRST – Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening FSAP – Financial Sector Assessment Program GDP – gross domestic product IFC – International Finance Corporation IFRS – international financial reporting standards IMF – International Monetary Fund IOSCO – International Organization of Securities Commissions IPO – initial public offer NBFI – non-bank financial institution NSS – National Savings Scheme OCO – Office of Cofinancing Operations OECD – Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OED – Operations Evaluation Department OREI – Office of Regional Economic Integration OTC – over-the-counter PRC – People’s Republic of China PSE – Philippines Stock Exchange PSOD – Private Sector Operations Department QIB – qualified institutional buyer SES – special evaluation study SOE – state-owned enterprise SME – small- and medium-sized enterprise SRO – self-regulatory organization TA – technical assistance UK – United Kingdom US – United States USAID – United States Agency for International Development NOTE (i) In this report, "$" refers to US dollars. Key Words asian development bank, assistance, bond mark et, capital market development, equity market, financial sector, indonesia, mongolia, pakistan, philippines, securities, sri lanka, viet nam. Director Ramesh Adhikari, Operations Evaluation Division 1 Team leader Henrike Feig, Principal Evaluation Specialist, Operations Evaluation Department, Division 2 Team members Ma. Juana Dimayuga, Evaluation Officer, Operations Evaluation Department, Division 2 Irene Garganta, Operations Evaluation Assistant, Operations Evaluation Department, Division 2 Operations Evaluation Department, SS-093 CONTENTS Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i I. INTRODUCTION 1 A. Objective and Scope 1 B. Methodology 1 C. Organization of the Report 1 II. ADB STRATEGIES AND ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS FOR CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT 2 A. Sector Context, Government Strategies, and Assistance Needs 2 B. ADB Strategies 3 C. ADB Asistance Programs 4 III. EVALUATION OF ADB ASSISTANCE 5 A. Strategic Positioning 5 B. Performance of Assistance Programs 10 C. Impacts 22 D. ADB Performance 28 IV. OVERALL ASSESSMENT, LESSONS, ISSUES, AND RECOMMENDATIONS 33 A. Overall Performance Rating 33 B. Conclusions and Lessons 33 C. Issues and Recommendations 41 In accordance with the guidelines formally adopted by the Operations Evaluation Department (OED) to avoid conflict of interest in its independent evaluations, H Satish Rao, the Director General of OED was not involved in this evaluation and delegated approval to Ramesh B. Adhikari, Director of Operations Evaluation Division 1. Terry Chuppe was the consultant who prepared background papers for the evaluation on capital market operations in Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Viet Nam. Mr. Chuppe had earlier provided technical inputs as a consultant during the preparation of Loan No. 2218-MON, and was a member of ADB-financed technical assistance consultant teams in Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. The SES team leader processed and implemented TA No. 1855-MON and processed and implemented banking sector-related components under Loans No. 1618-INO and 1620-INO, but was not involved in the capital market components of these loans. Potential conflicts of interest were adequately managed. To the knowledge of the management of OED, there were no conflicts of interest of the persons preparing, reviewing, or approving this report. APPENDIXES 1. Evaluation Approach, Methodology and Ratings 45 2. Data on ADB Capital Market Development Projects 50 3. ADB Assistance by Capital Market Component 60 4. Data on Capital Market Development 70 SUPPLEMENTARY APPENDIXES (available on request) A. Country Study: Indonesia B. Country Study: Mongolia C. Country Study: Pakistan D. Country Study: Philippines E. Country Study: Sri Lanka F. Country Study: Viet Nam EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction. This first special evaluation study (SES) on Asian Development Bank (ADB) assistance for domestic capital market development covers two decades (1986—2006) of ADB operations, with greater attention given to assistance provided in recent years, to help identify lessons relevant for future operations. The SES evaluates performance of ADB’s public and private sector operations related to the development of policy, legal, and regulatory frameworks, as well as institutions for stock and bond markets. The performance evaluation methodology combines bottom-up assessments of the relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, and sustainability of ADB’s sector operations with top-down assessments of ADB’s strategic approach to capital market development, the contributions of ADB assistance programs to sector and economic development results, and ADB performance. The analysis is based on (i) findings from six country studies carried out under the SES; and (ii) Operation Evaluation Department (OED) evaluation findings from other countries. The country studies cover Indonesia, Mongolia, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Viet Nam, which have accounted for 68% of ADB’s lending operations in the sector and are representative of most other developing member countries (DMCs) that have received ADB assistance in terms of their stage of market development, market size, and economic systems. ADB assistance in other supported DMCs did not lend itself to meaningful analysis at the country-level, as it was either limited to technical assistance (TA) (e.g., Peoples’ Republic of China), too dated (e.g., India in terms of policy support), or of a one off nature (e.g., Republic of Korea). However, evaluation findings from such countries were used to complement analysis as appropriate. Regional bond market development or private equity funds-related operations were not included in this SES. Sector Context. Well-functioning liquid capital markets help mobilize and allocate long- term capital resources and enhance prospects for sustainable economic growth. They support corporate initiatives, finance the exploitation of new ideas, and facilitate the management of financial risk. Capital markets can also help reduce financial vulnerabilities through risk diversification by encouraging asset growth outside the banking system, and by improving maturity and currency matching. The recently approved new Long-Term Strategic Framework of ADB 2008—2020 (Strategy 2020) includes support for capital market development as one of ADB’s core operational priorities, as it can facilitate private sector development and infrastructure development, which rely on the availability of long-term local currency funds for viable financial structures. Some DMCs have had stock markets for a long time, whereas others only recently started to develop their markets. Although DMCs have had different assistance needs with regard to capital market development, most of them have required assistance for establishing or upgrading the relevant legal, regulatory, institutional, and infrastructure frameworks. DMCs with more advanced financial systems have also needed support for the introduction of new financial products, in particular related to bond market development. ADB assistance for capital market development commenced during the 1980s, when ADB changed its financial sector assistance focus from financial intermediation loans to support for policy reforms in the financial sector. Capital markets-related assistance has been mostly in the form of components under general financial sector program loans. From 1987 to 2006, ADB financed 36 loan financial sector projects in 14 DMCs in the total amount of $9.2 billion, and 109 TA operations in 20 DMCs in the amount of $59.9 million, which fully or in part pursued capital market development objectives. ii Strategic Positioning. ADB’s strategic positioning has been less than satisfactory. ADB has not had a corporate-level strategy to guide its financial sector assistance. Operational priorities were therefore determined at the country level. While this setup facilitated close alignment of ADB’s programs with DMC reform priorities, in the aggregate, it probably limited ADB’s ability to identify efficient corporate-level responses to common issues faced by DMCs, including challenges and opportunities arising from international developments. ADB’s regional efforts to support bond market development were not systematically translated into related operations at the country level. Also, in the absence of longer term government strategies for capital market development until recently, the time horizons of ADB assistance strategies in the study countries were usually limited to the duration of individual program loans. As a result, a long-term strategic vision was often not evident. Particularly in Mongolia and Sri Lanka, the selectivity and sequencing of sector programs could have been improved by recognizing the hierarchy of financial markets and their linkages; the development stage of the country; or deficiencies in the overall macroeconomic, monetary, investment, legal, and real sector frameworks that have a bearing on capital market development. In other DMCs, too, politically sensitive issues related to the reform of judicial systems,
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