Liquidity, Risk and Speed in Payment and Settlement Systems
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Liquidity, risks and speed in payment and settlement systems – a simulation approach andsettlementsystems–asimulation andspeedinpayment risks Liquidity, StudiesE:31·2005 Bank ofFinland Harry Leinonen (ed.) Liquidity, risks and speed in payment and settlement systems – a simulation approach Bank of Finland Studies E:31 · 2005 ISBN 952-462-194-0 ISSN 1238-1691 Edita Prima Oy Helsinki 2005 Harry Leinonen (ed.) Liquidity, risks and speed in payment and settlement systems – a simulation approach Bank of Finland Studies E:31 · 2005 The views expressed in this study are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Bank of Finland or the respective institutions of the authors. ISBN 952-462-194-0 ISSN 1238-1691 (print) ISBN 952-462-195-9 ISSN 1456-5951 (online) Edita Prima Oy Helsinki 2005 Abstract This publication consists of eleven separate studies on payment and settlement systems conducted using simulation techniques. Most have been carried out using the payment and settlement system simulators BoF-PSS1 or BoF-PSS2 provided by the Bank of Finland and presented at the simulator seminars arranged by the Bank. The main focus in the analyses is on liquidity requirements, settlement speed, gridlock situations, gridlock resolving methods, liquidity economising, systemic risk, and the impact of shocks on system performance. The studies look at systems in several countries and cover both RTGS and netting systems as well as securities settlement systems. Keywords: simulation, payment and settlement system, liquidity, gridlock, systemic risk, counterparty risk 3 Tiivistelmä Tämä julkaisu koostuu yhdestätoista erillisestä maksu- ja selvitys- järjestelmää koskevasta tutkimuksesta, jotka on suoritettu simulointi- menetelmiä käyttäen. Useimmat näistä tutkimuksista on tehty käyttäen Suomen Pankin maksu- ja selvitysjärjestelmäsimulaattoreita BoF- PSS1 ja BoF-PSS2. Tutkimukset on esitelty Suomen Pankin järjestä- mien simulaattoriseminaarien yhteydessä. Pääpaino tutkimuksissa on ollut likviditeettitarpeiden selvittämisessä, katteensiirron nopeudessa, lukkiutumistilanteissa ja niiden avaamiseen liittyvissä metodeissa, likviditeetin käytön tehostamisessa, systeemiriskeissä sekä poikkeus- tilanne- ja vastapuoliriskeissä. Tutkimukset koskevat eri maissa toimi- via järjestelmiä, ja niiden joukossa on RTGS-järjestelmiä ja nettoutus- periaatteella toimivia maksujärjestelmiä sekä arvopaperikauppojen selvitysjärjestelmiä. Asiasanat: simulointi, maksu- ja selvitysjärjestelmä, likviditeetti, lukkiutumistilanne, systeemiriski, vastapuoliriski 4 Preface Payment systems are an integral part of an efficient modern economy. With continuous progress in globalisation and rapid technological advances, payment systems are, like other aspects of the economy, in a state of transition. International interdependencies and system linkages are increasing and real time settlement of payment by these systems is becoming commonplace. Liquidity demands will change in the future, as will the tools for liquidity management. The risks in payment and settlement systems are also changing, bringing new kinds of challenges. While counterparty credit risks are generally decreasing, liquidity risks are becoming more challenging. It is important to gain a deep understanding of the systems and their interdependencies in order to increase their efficiency under normal circumstances and their resilience in any abnormal situations that could arise. Payment and settlement systems have proven to be a complicated area into which simulation techniques provide a good way to penetrate sufficiently deeply. It is possible to build models that closely replicate the real operating environment. These laboratory environments can be used for testing scenarios that cannot be observed in real operating environments. The Bank of Finland has a long tradition of economic research, and modern payment and settlement systems have been one of the areas on which it has focused. This has resulted over the years in several research publications and seminars. The Bank decided in 1997 to start to develop a special PC-based tool, a simulator, for payment system analysis. The keen external interest in the Bank’s simulation studies and the simulator itself led to the decision to create a public simulator version for research purposes (BoF-PSS2), which was ready for general distribution by spring 2004. BoF-PSS2 is currently used by over 30 institutions worldwide, mainly central banks. I would like to thank all the authors for their contributions to this publication, which I trust will provide a good introduction to the simulation analysis of payment and settlement systems and will stimulate further research to enhance our understanding and improve the models and methodologies in the years ahead. For the finalisation of the publication we are indebted to Päivi Nietosvaara for the text editing, Brian Fleming for revising the language of some of the contributions and Teresa Magi for printing administration. We are also indebted to Esa Jokivuolle, Harry Leinonen and Jouko Vilmunen, who have served as the editorial board 5 for the project. Kari Nihtilä at the Finnish Bankers’ Association deserves our gratitude for the original idea of using simulation techniques for analysing the impact of EMU on Finnish payment systems. So does Kimmo Soramäki for designing and programming the first Bank of Finland simulator (BoF-PSS1) and for assisting in designing and testing the second one (BoF-PSS2). The European Central Bank warrants a special acknowledgement for making it possible to use Kimmo Soramäki’s know-how. The second simulator was built by MSG Software Oy, and a special thank you goes to project manager Leena Tyni and chief designer Ville Ruoppi. The simulator projects have also benefited from the support and contributions of Marianne Palva and Heikki Koskenkylä. Harry Leinonen has been the project leader, and as such has played a central role in creating the simulators. Finally, I would like to thank all other contributors, sponsors, commentators and users of the simulator for all the help they have provided during different periods of work on and with the simulator. The Bank of Canada, Bank of England and Federal Reserve Bank of New York deserve special acknowledgement for their concrete sponsorship of new features for the simulator. A more complete list of acknowledgements can be found on the simulator web site and in the user manual of the simulator. I hope users of the simulator will continue to be active and that the simulator will attract new users and sponsors. It is a great pleasure for me to present via this publication the fruits of this productive cooperation between central banks. Helsinki, May 2005 Matti Louekoski 6 Contents Chapter 1 Harry Leinonen – Kimmo Soramäki Introduction ......................................................................................... 9 Chapter 2 Harry Leinonen – Kimmo Soramäki Simulating interbank payment and securities settlement mechanisms with the BoF-PSS2 simulator..................................... 15 Chapter 3 Risto Koponen – Kimmo Soramäki Intraday liquidity needs in a modern interbank payment system – a simulation approach....................................... 71 Chapter 4 Harry Leinonen – Kimmo Soramäki Optimising liquidity usage and settlement speed in payment systems ......................................................................... 115 Chapter 5 Morten L. Bech – Kimmo Soramäki Gridlock resolution and bank failures in interbank payment systems ....................................................... 149 Chapter 6 Kurt Johnson – James J. McAndrews – Kimmo Soramäki Economising liquidity with deferred settlement mechanisms .... 177 Chapter 7 Johan Pettersson Simulation of liquidity levels and delays in the Swedish RIX systems............................................................ 217 Chapter 8 James J. McAndrews – George Wasilyew Simulations of failure in a payment system.................................. 227 7 Chapter 9 Paul Bedford – Stephen Millard – Jing Yang Analysing the impact of operational incidents in large-value payment systems: a simulation approach ............ 247 Chapter 10 Morten L. Bech – Kimmo Soramäki Systemic risk in a netting system revisited ................................... 275 Chapter 11 Emmanuel Mazars – Guy Woelfel Analysis, by simulation, of the impact of a technical default of a payment system participant....................................... 297 Chapter 12 Matti Hellqvist – Jenni Koskinen Stress testing securities clearing and settlement systems using simulations ............................................ 321 8 Chapter 1 Introduction Harry Leinonen – Kimmo Soramäki 1 Introduction ................................................................................... 10 9 1 Introduction The last 10 or 15 years have seen a growing interest in research and development in interbank payment and settlement systems. Central banks have allocated effort and resources to this special area. Among the factors behind the movement in this area are international cooperation, technological advances and a growing dependency on payment systems that function smoothly under all circumstances. Cooperation has been a particularly important factor in the euro area, which has seen extensive linking of payment systems in order to give the area a totally integrated interbank payment system. The key official fora have been the payment system committees of G10 central banks and of the European System of Central Banks, and working