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Community Profiles Have Been Developed to Inform Clinical Services/ Population: 21,209 Health System Planning for Community-Based Programs at Capital Health

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Community Capital Health Community Clinical Profile Services / Health System Planning Group (2014) Created by the Capital Health Community Clinical Services/ Health System Planning Group November 2014 Contact: Primary Health Care, Capital Health Eastern Shore [email protected] Musquodoboit Community Health Network 4 Overview: Community Profiles have been developed to inform Clinical Services/ Population: 21,209 Health System Planning for community-based programs at Capital Health. The Community Profiles, including citizen engagement results from the Community Health Boards, provide a community lens that will inform an evidence-based approach to future planning at a local level. The purpose of the profile is to provide a snapshot of the populations and communities within each of the five Community Health Networks (CHNs; formerly referred to as Zones). Please refer to the Glossary and Data Dictionary for key definitions and data sources for each of the indicators/concepts mentioned in the report. These community profiles build upon the work of the Population Health Status Report (Public Health, Capital Health, 2013), which can be referenced for further detail regarding demographics, methodology, and additional analysis of selected variables. A full list of contributors to this report is located in Appendix A. Table of Contents: (for a full table of contents and list of tables and figures, refer to Appendices B-D) I. Geography II. Community Health Board Engagement III. Community Health Network Inventory IV. Population Demographics V. Health Status VI. Service Delivery Locations VII. Health Service Utilization Data VIII. Summary of Observations for each Community within the Community Health Network GEOGRAPHY CHN 4 CHN 5 CHN 3 CHN 1 CHN 2 Figure 1: Community Health Network 4 and Capital District Health Authority Geography. There are five proposed Community Health Networks (formerly referred to as Zones) across the district. Community Health Network 4: Eastern Shore Musquodoboit Page | 1 Capital Health Community Clinical Services / Health System Planning Group (2014) Community Composition Figure 2: Community Health Network 4 Geography Community Health Network 4 (CHN 4) includes the communities of: Table 1: CHN 4 Communities and Populations Community Population Community Population Chezzetcook 3,916 Musquodoboit Harbour 2,251 Jeddore 1,445 Porters Lake 3,202 Lake Echo 3,044 Sheet Harbour 1,562 Middle Musquodoboit 2,055 Ship Harbour 1,869 Moser River 794 Upper Musquodoboit 1,071 CHN 4 Total: 21,209 Source: 2011 Canadian Census data (Government of Nova Scotia, 2013. Nova Scotia Community Counts). The population of CHN 4 is 21,209 citizens, which accounts for 5.0% of the population of the Capital District Health Authority (CDHA). The Millbrook First Nation Community – Sheet Harbour 36 is also located within this geography; however, no population or demographic data is available. CHN 4 encompasses the Eastern Shore Musquodoboit Community Health Board (population: 24,598). Data for the CHB is used as a geographic comparator (e.g., a proxy measure of the CHN average) where aggregate data is not available (the CHB has 116% of the CHN population). Comparisons made within CHNs are based on observation only; statistical tests for significance were not completed for the purposes of this project. Please refer to Appendix E for a data disclaimer applicable to all readers and users of this report. Community Health Network 4: Eastern Shore Musquodoboit Page | 2 Capital Health Community Clinical Services / Health System Planning Group (2014) Rurality Figure 3: CHN 4 Rurality (Canadian Census, 2011; Community Counts Community Boundaries, 2011). Communities were categorized as being urban, suburban, or rural, using a definition1 based on population density and proximity to the urban core: Rural Communities Rural Lake Echo (rural, but higher population density), 100 % of Porter’s Lake, Chezzetcook, Jeddore, Sheet Population Harbour, Ship Harbour, Moser River, Middle Musquodoboit, Upper Musquodoboit, Suburban Musquodoboit Harbour 0% of Population Suburban Communities n/a Urban Urban Communities 0% of n/a Population 1 Urban: greater than 280 people per km2; Suburban: between 46 people per km2 and 280 people per km2 and surrounding an urban core; Rural: <46 people per km2 and/or identifying pockets of higher population density that may be above 46 people per km2, but not surrounding the urban core (definition adapted for Capital Health by Public Health & Primary Health Care, Capital Health). Community Health Network 4: Eastern Shore Musquodoboit Page | 3 Capital Health Community Clinical Services / Health System Planning Group (2014) Population Projections Figure 4: Percentage of population change from 2014-2024, by community (Environics Analytics Group LTD., 2014, modeled from Census Canada data, 2011). Population projections for communities in the Capital Health district were obtained from Environics Analytics Group Ltd (2014) and analyzed for Capital Health. This data provided five and ten year projections for six-digit postal codes in Capital Health, which were aggregated to the community level. The five and ten year projections for each community, as well as projections for the youth (<20 years of age) and senior (65 years and above) population are highlighted in Table 2. Figure 4 depicts the percent change in population for communities within the CHN over a ten year period (2014-2024). Refer to Appendix E for a detailed breakdown of all ages groups by community. Trends for the in projected populations for the Capital Health district are generally consistent with the trends reported in the Ivany Report (2014) for the Halifax Regional Municipality. The Ivany Report noted a decrease in the percentage of population of youth and a 49% increase in population for the age category >64 years. This will result in a +1% net increase in population for the HRM by the year 2034 (Nova Scotia Department of Finance, 2013). However, population projections specifically for CHN 4 reflect population decline for this particular area. CHN 4 will experience a 5% decrease in population by 2019 and 4% decrease in population by 2024. The youth population is expected to decrease by approximately one-quarter and the senior population is expected to increase by 63% by the year 2024. Within the CHN, the community that is projected to have the highest percentage of population growth over the next five and ten years is Middle Musquodoboit; the community’s population will increase by 67% by 2019 and will result in a 64% increase over a ten year period by 2024. In addition to experiencing the largest population growth by percentage, Middle Musquodoboit will also see the higher percentage of growth in both the senior and youth populations, each increasing by 29% and 184%, respectively, by 2024. Community Health Network 4: Eastern Shore Musquodoboit Page | 4 Capital Health Community Clinical Services / Health System Planning Group (2014) The community within the CHN that will experience the greatest decrease in population is Moser River; the community’s population is expected to drop by 58% by the year 2024. In addition to experiencing the largest population decline by percentage, Moser River will also see the higher percentage of decline in both the senior and youth populations, each decreasing by 72% and 38%, respectively, by 2024. Upper Musquodoboit will also experience a high percentage of population decline in future years. Table 2: 2019 (5 Year) and 2024 (10 year) Population Projections for Communities within the CHN 20193 20244 20142 Percent Change (%) Percent Change (%) Projected Projected Population Population Total Youth Seniors Population Total Youth Seniors CDHA 423,163 463,931 10 -7 50 476,940 13 -4 78 CHN 4 21,209 20,185 -5 -24 41 20,477 -4 -26 63 Community Chezzetcook 3,916 2,908 -26 -47 28 3,061 -22 -46 53 Jeddore 1,445 1,047 -28 -50 15 995 -31 -56 24 Lake Echo 3,044 2,714 -11 -23 56 2,824 -7 -22 106 Middle 2,055 3,430 67 37 151 3,379 64 29 184 Musquodoboit Moser River 794 350 -56 -67 -43 334 -58 -72 -38 Musquodoboit 2,251 1,991 -12 -36 43 2,043 -9 -38 68 Harbour Porters Lake 3,202 4,004 25 1 88 4,234 32 2 145 Sheet Harbour 1,562 1,228 -21 -43 4 1,178 -25 -50 11 Ship Harbour 1,869 1,895 1 -21 38 1,811 -3 -29 48 Upper 1,071 618 -42 -52 -21 586 -45 -57 -17 Musquodoboit Net Change for CHN 4 ↓-1024 citizens ↓-762 citizens Source: Environics Analytics Group LTD., 2014 Note for Readers: Throughout the report, you will notice numbers bolded in red and blue (like the above example). This is to identify the highest value within a CHN (red) and the lowest value within a CHN (blue). In some cases, bolded numbers also designate when the CHN rate is higher than the district rate (red) or lower than the district rate (blue). 2 As reported by 2011 Canadian Census Data 3 All percentages reported for population projections are relative to the 2014 population: 5 year projections are calculated based on percent change from 2014-2019 4 All percentages reported for population projections are relative to the 2014 population: 10 year projections are calculated based on percent change from 2014-2024 Community Health Network 4: Eastern Shore Musquodoboit Page | 5 Capital Health Community Clinical Services / Health System Planning Group (2014) COMMUNITY HEALTH BOARD (CHB) ENGAGEMENT Eastern Shore Musquodoboit Community Health Board findings from 2013 Community Health Plan: • The Eastern Shore Musquodoboit CHB includes the communities of: Chezzetcook, Jeddore, Lake Echo,
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