Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
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Chennai-Kanyakumari Industrial Corridor: Power Sector Investment Project (RRP IND 51308-001) Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Document Stage: Final Project Number: 51308-001 March 2019 India: Chennai-Kanyakumari Industrial Corridor : Power Sector Investment Project Asian Development Bank TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES II LIST OF TABLES IV INDEX OF TERMS V UNITS VI CLIMATE GLOSSARY VI EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1. INTRODUCTION 4 1.1 Brief Project Description 4 1.2 Project Information 4 1.3 Concept of Risk and Vulnerability 6 1.4 Sector Climate Risk and Vulnerability 7 1.5 Sector’s Regulatory, Legal, Institutional and Policy Frameworks Related to Climate Change 7 1.6 Data Sources 7 1.7 Structure of the Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment 8 2. PROJECT DESCRIPTION 9 2.1 Project Profile 9 2.2 Objective/s of the CRVA or Rationale 12 2.3 Methodology, scope and limitations 12 3. GOVERNMENT STRATEGY FOR COPING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE 13 3.1 Impact of Climate Change in Tamil Nadu 13 3.2 Tamil Nadu Government Strategy for Climate Change 14 3.3 Summary 16 4. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS THAT CAN AFFECT PROJECT COMPONENTS 16 4.1 Temperature 16 4.1.1 Temperature – Past Trends 16 4.1.2 Change in Temperature (Increase) 17 4.1.3 Temperature Projections 17 4.1.4 Minimum temperature projections: 18 4.1.5 Risk Management within sub-project 20 4.2 Change in Precipitation 20 4.2.1 Rainfall - Observed Pattern 20 4.2.2 Rainfall Projections 22 4.2.3 Risk Management Response/ Recommendation 29 4.3 Cyclones/ Storm Surge – Observed Trends 29 4.3.1 Existing Cyclonic Activity Profile 29 4.3.2 Impact of Tsunami 31 4.3.3 Impact of Cyclone 32 4.3.4 Coastal inundation and damages 32 4.3.5 Projected Cyclonic Activity/Trend 33 4.3.6 Risk Management Response 34 4.4 Sea Level Rise 34 4.4.1 Sea Level Rise – Past Trend 34 4.4.2 Sea Level Rise – Projections 34 4.4.3 Risk Management Response 36 4.5 Other Climate Change Impacts 36 4.5.1 Impact of Climate Change on Avian Central Asian Flyway 36 4.5.2 Risk Management Measures 36 5. CLIMATE RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 37 i 5.1 Methodology 37 5.1.1 Projection Horizon 37 5.1.2 Hazard Characterization 37 5.2. Sensitivity and Exposure Impact Assessment 38 5.2.1 Calculating risk 38 5.2.2 Vulnerability and adaptive capacity Assessment - Score/Ranking 38 5.3 Influence of Climate Change on Project Components 41 5.3.1 Region Specific designs 41 5.4 Sub-Project Level Vulnerability Risk Ranking 42 5.5 Hazard-Exposure-Sensitivity & Vulnerability Ranking/Scoring 45 5.6 Overall Project Ranking 47 6. PROPOSED MANAGEMENT AND ADAPTATION ACTIONS 48 6.1 Adaptation Measures and Recommendations 48 6.2 Proposed Adaptation Measures 53 6.3 Overall Likely Climate Change Impacts 55 6.4 Climate Adaptation Measures within the Project Design 56 6.4.1 Design items 56 6.4.2 Cost Benefit Analysis of Extra cost items 57 6.4.3 Social and Political acceptability 58 7. STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION AND GROUND VALIDATION 59 7.1 Building State Level Capacities to enhance energy efficiency 59 7.1.1 National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) 59 7.1.2 Tamil Nadu State Action Plan on Climate Change (TNSAPCC) 59 7.1.3 Tamil Nadu State Climate Change Cell (TNSCCC) 60 7.1.4 Flood Management Programme in Tamil Nadu 60 7.2 Institutions involved in the management of Coastal Zone 60 REFERENCES 62 APPENDICES 63 Appendix A: Relevant Technical Specifications 63 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Geographic Locations of Substations and Transmission Lines to be Built 5 under the Project Figure 1.2: Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment – Process Flow 6 Figure 2.1: Location of Substations and Illustrative Lines Routes (bee line) 10 Figure 4.1: Change in Maximum Temperature (ºC) Projections for 2010-2040, 2040- 19 2070, 2070-2100 with Reference to Baseline (1970-2000) Figure 4.2: Change in Minimum Temperature (ºC) Projections for 2010-2040, 2040- 20 2070, 2070-2100 Reference to Baseline (1970-2000) Figure 4.3: Rainfall (mm) over Tamil Nadu during (a) Oct; (b) Nov; (c) Dec; and (d) NE 23 Monsoon Figure 4.4: Change in Annual Rainfall (mm) Projections for 2010-2040, 2040-2070 and 25 2070-2100 with Reference to Baseline (1970-2000) Figure 4.5: Stations with Significant Increasing/Decreasing Trends in One Day Extreme 26 Rainfall ii Figure 4.6: Boundary of the Cauvery River Basin 27 Figure 4.7: Annual Rainfall - Baseline and Projections 28 Figure 4.8: Annual Rainfall Days in Baseline and End Century Scenario 28 Figure 4.9: Average rainfall intensity 29 Figure 4.10: Average rainfall intensity during south west monsoon (JJAS) 29 Figure 4.11: Average rainfall intensity during north east monsoon (ONDJ) 29 Figure 4.12: Wind and Cyclone Hazard Map of Tamil Nadu 32 Figure 4.13: Probable Maximum Surge Heights (m) of Surges with a 50-year Return 34 Period Figure 4.14: Trends of Sea Level Between 1989 and 2009 Observed in Specific Areas 36 Along the Coast Line in Tamil Nadu Figure 5.1: Illustrates the CRVA Methodology and its Key Factors 39 Figure 6.1: Design Wind Speed Map of India 51 Figure 6.2: India Wind and Cyclone Zone Map 52 Figure 6.3: Wind and Cyclone Hazard Map of Tamil Nadu 53 iii LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: List of Subprojects in CKIC Power Sector Investment Project 9 Table 2.2: Location of Substations and Termination Points of Transmission Lines 11 Table 3.1: Key Strategies to Address Climate Concerns for the Energy Sector 15 Table 4.1: District-wise Projected Change in Maximum Temperature in 0C with 18 Reference to 1970-2000 Table 4.2: District-wise Change in Minimum Temperature in ºC with Reference to 1970- 20 2000 Table 4.3: Seasonal Rainfall of Selected Stations in Tamil Nadu (Rainfall in cm) 21 Table 4.4: Percentage Changes in Annual and Seasonal Rainfall and in Number of Rainy 22 Days in the Last 100 Years Table 4.5: District-wise Percentage Change in Annual Rainfall with Reference to 1970- 24 2000 Table 4.6: Changes in Precipitation in Mid-century (2021-2050) in the Cauvery Basin with 30 respect to Baseline (1961-1990) Table 4.7: Return Periods of Storm Surges of Different Strengths 34 Table 4.8: Projection of Sea Level Rise Based on Different IPCC SRES Scenarios 35 Table 5.1: Hazard Characterization and Vulnerability Ranking Criteria 41 Table 5.2: Meteorological Data used for Design 44 Table 5.3: Vulnerability Assessment of Sub-Project areas – Ranking 45 Table 5.4: Summary Table of Vulnerability Ranking for Sub-project Components 47 Table 5.5: Sub-project Overall Vulnerability Ranking 48 Table 6.1: Design Wind Speed Zones 51 Table 6.2: Design Wind Pressure Pd in N/m2 54 Table 6.3: Soil Properties to be Considered in Foundation Designs for Relevant Types of 54 Soil Table 6.4: Climate Adaptation in Design by TANTRANSCO 56 Table 6.5: Climate Change Adaptation Measures within the Project 58 Table 7.1: Institutions Involved in Management of Various Aspects in the Coastal Zone 63 Area in Tamil Nadu and Interactions with TANTRANSCO iv INDEX OF TERMS ADB Asian Development Bank CC Climate Change CEIG Chief Electrical Inspector to Government CKIC Chennai-Kanyakumari Industrial Corridor CMFRI Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute CPCB Central Pollution Control Board CRA&MR Climate Risk Assessment & Management Reporting CRVA Climate Risk & Vulnerability Assessment CRZ Coastal Regulation Zone Notification DC Direct Current DPR Detailed Project Reports EHV Extra High Voltage EIA Environment Impact Assessment ERS Earthquake Resistant Structures GCM Global Circulation Models GHG Greenhouse emissions GoI Government of India GoTN Government of Tamil Nadu GPRS General Packet Radio Service HFL High Flood Level IEC Information, Education & Communication IMD Indian Meteorological Department INCCA Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IT Information Technology MoEFCC Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change NAPCC National Action Plan on Climate Change NDMA National Disaster Management Authority NH National Highway NIO National Institute of Oceanography O&M Operation & Maintenance PGCIL Power Grid Corporation of India Limited PRECIS Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies PSP Private Sector Participation SAP-CC State Action Plan on Climate Change (Tamil Nadu) SCADA Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (Systems) SH State Highway SLR Sea Level Rise SOR Schedule of Rates UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WG Working Group v UNITS bcm Billion cubic metre mg/l Milligram per litre bgl below ground level m.ha.m. Million hectare metre cm Centimetre mcm Million cubic metre cu.m. Cubic metre per mg/kg Milligram per kilogram second cusec Cubic feet per second mg/l Milligram per litre deg. C Degree m ha Million hectare (°C) Centigrade/Celsius g gram MKWH Million kilowatt hour ha Hectare MGD Million Gallons per day HFL High Flood Level ML Million Litres HHWL Highest High-Water MLD Million litres per day Level HWL High Water Level mm Millimetre INR/ Rs. Indian Rupees mm/yr Millimetre per year INR Indian Rupees Million MPN Most Probable Number Million kg/m3 Kilogram per cubic MSL Mean Sea Level metre KLD Kilo litres per day MT Metric Ton Km Kilometre MTA Metric Ton per annum Sq.km. Square kilometre MT/day Metric Ton per day km3 Cubic kilometre MWL Maximum Water Level Kmph Kilometre per hour LWL Low Water Level Lpcd Litres per capita per NTU Natural Turbidity Unit day cu.m.