New York City Real Estate Development Report Q1/20

New York City Real Estate Development Report Q1/ 20

Analysis of development trends, approved projects, and transactions that will reshape the New York City landscape hereafter.

Compiled by DeSophy / April 2020 desophy.com Introduction

Table Of Contents This market overview represents summarized collected data on development projects in New York City during the first quarter of 2020. Market In Review p3 Manhattan In Review p4-6 » Approved Projects The uniqueness of our approach is based on a comprehensive analysis that » Development Transactions contains not only information regarding transactions that took place during this Brooklyn In Review p7-9 quarter but also the number of approved permits and total proposed units and » Approved Projects square footage that is to be constructed. » Development Transactions Queens In Review p10-12 » Approved Projects The objective of this research is to gain insight into the current development » Development Transactions activities in the New York City real estate market and to monitor, compare, The Bronx In Review p13-15 and project the possible future directions of market trends. » Approved Projects » Development Transactions Key Developments & Market Drivers p16 Market Overview p17 Contact p18

Methodology: The research included transactions over $1million and development projects with approved permits. Only reliable sources were used, such as the city’s government official websites like ACRIS and DOB. All of the collected data was divided by sub-markets and thoroughly examined, which provided us with unbiased results, conclusions, and predictions.

2 / NYC DEVELOPMENT REPORT Q1/20 APPROVED PROJECTS Market In Review IN NEW YORK CITY Q1 2020 223 4.7M 5,490 APPROVED PROPOSED PROPOSED PERMITS BSF UNITS

-25% -71% -54% New York City QoQ (vs Q4 2019)

In the first quarter of 2020, New York City saw less development activity than in the last quarter of 2019. The BREAKDOWN BY number of approved permits, proposed units, and buildable square feet, all decreased by 25%, 54%, and 71%. SUBMARKETS

6% On a high note, in comparison to the first quarter of 2019, we see growth in all parameters. The number of 17% 22% approved permits, proposed units, and buildable square feet - increased significantly by 43%, 134%, and 186%. 32% PROPOSED PERMITS 36% BSF Although Manhattan continued to have the highest number of proposed buildable square feet and proposed units, 23% but also the least amount of approved permits (13) in Q1. Queens, on the other hand, had the highest number of 41% permits (92), which is 41% out of the total number of approved permits in New York City. These numbers may 23% indicate the growth of interest in smaller-scale properties outside Manhattan, caused by the lack of available development sites and high prices. 6+364117 32+2322 Manhattan Brooklyn Queens The Bronx

3 / NYC DEVELOPMENT REPORT Q1/20 BACK TO TOC Manhattan In Review Approved Projects

The beginning of 2020 Manhattan saw a continuation of a declining trend in development activities. High APPROVED PROJECTS IN MANHATTAN Q1 2020 development costs and lack of available vacant land caused further restrain, even in Northern Manhattan. 13 1.5M 1,648 The total number of approved permits, proposed buildable square feet, and proposed units have all dropped by 7%, APPROVED PROPOSED PROPOSED 71%, 10%, respectively, compared to the previous quarter. But if we compare these parameters with the Q1 2019, PERMITS BSF UNITS we notice a significant growth by 44%, 65%, and 87%, which may indicate a more optimistic long-term trend. -7% -71% -10% The most active area was Midtown, with six (6) approved permits and approx. 612k proposed buildable square QoQ (vs Q4 2019) feet. The second comes Central Harlem, with half the amount of approved permits, but almost the same number of proposed buildable square feet. +44% +65% +87% YoY (vs Q1 2019)

NUMBER OF PERMITS (QoQ) PROPOSED BUILDABLE SQ FT (QoQ) PROPOSED UNITS (QoQ) 5.22M 20 20 5M Q1 ‘20 1.6K 14 14 1.8K 15 12 13 4M Q4 ‘19 9 Q3 ‘19 1.9K 10 3M 2.6M 1.92M 1.76M Q2 ‘19 1.1K 5 2M 1.5M 911K Q1 ‘19 783 0 1M Q4 ‘18 2.9K

Q4 ‘18 Q1 ‘19 Q2 ‘19 Q3 ‘19 Q4 ‘19 Q1 ‘20 Q4 ‘18 Q1 ‘19 Q2 ‘19 Q3 ‘19 Q4 ‘19 Q1 ‘20 0 1K 2K 3K 4K 5K

4 / NYC DEVELOPMENT REPORT Q1/20 BACK TO TOC Manhattan In Review Approved Projects

Unsurprisingly, the most active area was Midtown, with 612k proposed BSF, with six (6) approved permits, followed by Central Harlem, with almost 496k proposed BSF.

Central Harlem

APPROVED PROPOSED PROPOSED SQ FT NEIGHBORHOOD 495,823 PERMITS BSF UNITS

CENTRAL HARLEM 3 495,823 251

MIDTOWN 6 612,239 1,215

DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN 4 396,523 182

TOTAL 13 1,504,585 1,648

Midtown 612,239 SQ FT

Downtown

396,523 SQ FT

5 / NYC DEVELOPMENT REPORT Q1/20 BACK TO TOC Manhattan In Review

MANHATTAN Development Transactions DEVELOPMENT TRANSACTIONS

5 372,593 $771 The total number of sold buildable square feet in Manhattan TRANSACTION TOTAL BSF AVERAGE was approximately 373k, and 853k in Northern Manhattan. NUMBER SOLD $/BSF

The average price per buildable square feet in Manhattan -17% -42% -12% decreased by 12%, compared by the previous quarter, QoQ (vs Q4 2019) and is now at $771.

Northern Manhattan followed with a price decrease of 16%, with $239 per buildable square foot.

NORTHERN MANHATTAN DEVELOPMENT TRANSACTIONS

4 852,672 $239 TRANSACTION TOTAL BSF AVERAGE NUMBER SOLD $/BSF

0% -40% -16% QoQ (vs Q4 2019)

6 / NYC DEVELOPMENT REPORT Q1/20 BACKBACK TO TO TOC TOC Brooklyn In Review Approved Projects

At the outset, it seemed that the announced rezoning in Bushwick and a large number of opportunity zones would have APPROVED PROJECTS increased the intensity of investment activities in Brooklyn. Still, the figures at the beginning of 2020 show an overall IN BROOKLYN Q1 2020 decline, the lowest quarter since Q4 2018. 81 1.1M 1,336 APPROVED PROPOSED PROPOSED During Q1 2020, eighty-one (81) permits were approved, with eight (8) in Bushwick alone. This result represents PERMITS BSF UNITS a decrease of 31%, compared with the previous quarter, and a decrease of 33%, compared with Q1 2019. Total proposed buildable square feet reached 1.1 million, which is a decrease of almost 80%, compared to the previous -31% -79% -70% quarter, and a 68% decrease, compared with Q1 2019. QoQ (vs Q4 2019)

The highest number of approved buildable square feet was in Central Brooklyn, with seventeen (17) approved -33% -68% -54% permits and a total of approx. 340k buildable square feet proposed. It’s followed by South Brooklyn, with YoY (vs Q1 2019) fourteen (14) approved permits and approximately 210k buildable square feet.

NUMBER OF PERMITS (QoQ) PROPOSED BUILDABLE SQ FT (QoQ) PROPOSED UNITS (QoQ) 144 139 140 6M 5.5M Q1 ‘20 1.3K 5.2M Q4 ‘19 4.4K 130 5M 4.4M 120 Q3 ‘19 1.9K 120 117 4M 3.4M Q2 ‘19 4.6K 110 106 3M 2.8M Q1 ‘19 2.9K 81 100 2M 1.1M Q4 ‘18 4.9K Q4 ‘18 Q1 ‘19 Q2 ‘19 Q3 ‘19 Q4 ‘19 Q1 ‘20 Q4 ‘18 Q1 ‘19 Q2 ‘19 Q3 ‘19 Q4 ‘19 Q1 ‘20 0 1K 2K 3K 4K 5K

7 / NYC DEVELOPMENT REPORT Q1/20 BACK TO TOC Brooklyn In Review Approved Projects

The highest number of permits was approved in Bushwick Central Brooklyn (17), as well as the number of proposed Williamsburg / Greenpoint buildable square feet, which was approximately 337k. 39,789 SQ FT 57,058 SQ FT

Downtown Brooklyn Bedford Stuyvesant/ Crown Heights APPROVED PROPOSED PROPOSED SQ FT NEIGHBORHOOD 37,919 SQ FT PERMITS BSF UNITS 179,604

WILLIAMSBURG / GREENPOINT 9 57,058 47 Southeast Brooklyn BUSHWICK 8 39,789 49 114,355 SQ FT SOUTHWEST BROOKLYN 8 114,837 120

SOUTH BROOKLYN 14 209,769 278 Central Brooklyn Southwest Brooklyn BEDFORD STUYVESANT/ CROWN HEIGHTS 12 179,604 196 337,151 SQ FT 114,837 SQ FT DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN 3 37,919 45

CENTRAL BROOKLYN 17 337,151 446 South Brooklyn SOUTHEAST BROOKLYN 10 114,355 155 209,769 SQ FT TOTAL 81 1,090,482 1,336

8 / NYC DEVELOPMENT REPORT Q1/20 BACK TO TOC Brooklyn In Review Development Transactions

The total number of sold buildable square feet is approximately BROOKLYN DEVELOPMENT TRANSACTIONS 886k, which is a decrease of 60%, compared to Q4 of 2019. The pricing remained unchanged, with $324 per buildable 19 885,755 $324 square foot. TRANSACTION TOTAL BSF AVERAGE NUMBER SOLD $/BSF

+27% -60% 0% QoQ (vs Q4 2019)

9 / NYC DEVELOPMENT REPORT Q1/20 BACKBACK TO TO TOC TOC Queens In Review Approved Projects

Queens had the highest number of approved permits in the entire New York City, and same as other boroughs, APPROVED PROJECTS IN QUEENS Q1 2020 it was faced with an overall decline in activities compared to Q4 2019.

The number of approved permits dropped by 22%, and so did the number of proposed units and buildable 92 1.06M 1,210 square footage - by 70% and 75%, respectively. But if we compare these results with Q1 2019, we may notice APPROVED PROPOSED PROPOSED PERMITS BSF UNITS a different trend, since the number of approved permits, proposed buildable square feet, and proposed units, all increased by 44%, 73%, and 122%, respectively. -22% -75% -70% QoQ (vs Q4 2019) The most active area was East Queens, with thirty (30) approved permits, and approximately 430k proposed buildable square feet. The most vibrant neighborhood was Astoria which alone had almost 126k proposed BSF. +44% +73% +122% YoY (vs Q1 2019)

NUMBER OF PERMITS (QoQ) PROPOSED BUILDABLE SQ FT (QoQ) PROPOSED UNITS (QoQ) 4.3M 118 100 92 4M Q1 ‘20 1.2K 82 80 2M Q4 ‘19 4K 64 1.4M 1.06M 59 Q3 ‘19 859 60 1M 510K 511K 702K 36 Q2 ‘19 800 40 500K Q1 ‘19 444 20 250K Q4 ‘18 637 Q4 ‘18 Q1 ‘19 Q2 ‘19 Q3 ‘19 Q4 ‘19 Q1 ‘20 Q4 ‘18 Q1 ‘19 Q2 ‘19 Q3 ‘19 Q4 ‘19 Q1 ‘20 300 900 1.5K 2.1K 2.7K 3.3K

10 / NYC DEVELOPMENT REPORT Q1/20 BACK TO TOC Queens In Review Approved Projects

Astoria The most active neighborhood was Astoria, 125,935 SQ FT Central Queens - North which alone had ten (10) approved permits, and 126k proposed buildable square feet. Long Island City 87,315 SQ FT 87,549 SQ FT East Queens

APPROVED PROPOSED PROPOSED 433,336 SQ FT NEIGHBORHOOD PERMITS BSF UNITS Central Queens - South LONG ISLAND CITY 8 87,549 101 SQ FT ASTORIA 10 125,935 158 289,652

CENTRAL QUEENS - NORTH 24 87,315 98

CENTRAL QUEENS - SOUTH 20 289,652 600

EAST QUEENS 30 433,336 114

TOTAL 92 1,023,787 1,071

11 / NYC DEVELOPMENT REPORT Q1/20 BACK TO TOC Queens In Review Development Transactions

Compared to the previous quarter, the total number of sold QUEENS DEVELOPMENT TRANSACTIONS buildable square feet increased by 124%, and the number of transactions doubled. On the other hand, the average price per 8 339,149 $199 buildable square foot decreased by 9%, and it was at $199. TRANSACTION TOTAL BSF AVERAGE NUMBER SOLD $/BSF

+100% +124% -9% QoQ (vs Q4 2019)

12 / NYC DEVELOPMENT REPORT Q1/20 BACKBACK TO TO TOC TOC The Bronx In Review Approved Projects

Although during the past period, we saw an expansion of development activities in the Bronx, the numbers from APPROVED PROJECTS IN THE BRONX Q1 2020 this quarter show a decline compared to Q4 2019.

The number of approved permits, proposed units, and buildable square feet, all decreased by 21%, 24%, and 34% 37 1.04M 1,296 APPROVED PROPOSED PROPOSED compared to Q4 2019. But in comparison with Q1 2019, we may notice an increase in all parameters: the number PERMITS BSF UNITS of approved permits, proposed buildable square feet, and units all increased by 85%, 21%, and 36%. -21% -34% -24% The most active area was the North Bronx, with twelve (12) approved permits, and approximately 482k proposed QoQ (vs Q4 2019) buildable square feet, which is almost half of the total number of proposed BSF in the Bronx (1.04 million BSF). +85% +21% +36% YoY (vs Q1 2019)

NUMBER OF PERMITS (QoQ) PROPOSED BUILDABLE SQ FT (QoQ) PROPOSED UNITS (QoQ) 1.6M 47 50 1.5M Q1 ‘20 1.3K 37 1.1M 1.1M 40 1.2M 959K 1.04M Q4 ‘19 1.7K 857K Q3 ‘19 1.1K 30 900K 18 19 Q2 ‘19 513 20 15 14 600K Q1 ‘19 952 10 300K Q4 ‘18 1K

Q4 ‘18 Q1 ‘19 Q2 ‘19 Q3 ‘19 Q4 ‘19 Q1 ‘20 Q4 ‘18 Q1 ‘19 Q2 ‘19 Q3 ‘19 Q4 ‘19 Q1 ‘20 700 900 1.1K 1.3K 1.5K 1.7K

13 / NYC DEVELOPMENT REPORT Q1/20 BACK TO TOC The Bronx In Review Approved Projects

North Bronx had twelve (12) approved permits, while the number North Bronx of proposed BSF was approximately 482k, which of 380k BSF in Bedford Park and Fordham North. 482,330 SQ FT

East Bronx APPROVED PROPOSED PROPOSED NEIGHBORHOOD PERMITS BSF UNITS 159,072 SQ FT SOUTH BRONX 10 394,740 350

NORTH BRONX 12 482,330 671 South Bronx EAST BRONX 15 159,072 275

TOTAL 37 1,036,142 1,296 394,740 SQ FT

14 / NYC DEVELOPMENT REPORT Q1/20 BACK TO TOC The Bronx In Review Development Transactions

Approximately 143k buildable square feet were sold through THE BRONX five (5) transactions that took place In Q1 2020, which is an DEVELOPMENT TRANSACTIONS increase of 60%, compared to the previous quarter. The price 5 143,228 $69 per buildable square foot remained relatively stable, at $69. TRANSACTION TOTAL BSF AVERAGE NUMBER SOLD $/BSF

+25% +60% -3% QoQ (vs Q4 2019)

15 / NYC DEVELOPMENT REPORT Q1/20 BACKBACK TO TO TOC TOC Market In Review Key Developments & Market Drivers

Jan 2 Jan 10 Jan 23 Jan 30 Feb 12 Feb 26 Mar 4 6 crucial ways New York A two-story wall could divide Lenox Terrace developer Is a new tower coming to New York Botanical Garden Harlem’s Lenox Terrace Sunnyside Yard plan is a City’s landscape will Hudson Yards from the High considers changes to South Street Seaport’s plans Bronx affordable redevelopment rejected by utopian vision for an urban change in 2020 Line Harlem project after historic district? housing project City Council committee future pushback

Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020

Jan 6 Jan 16 Jan 28 Feb 4 Feb 18 Mar 4 Mar 4 Pier 40 redevelopment Bjarke Ingels design for 2 Extell’s Upper West Side Massive East New York Upper West Side’s would-be Waldorf Astoria condo South Street Seaport scuttled after Cuomo kills World Trade Center scrapped, tower gets the green light— ‘urban village’ is moving tallest tower could lose 20 conversion launches sales redevelopment plan includes contested bill Norman Foster’s back on again forward stories after legal challenge up to 990-foot tower

Source: Curbed

16 / NYC DEVELOPMENT REPORT Q1/20 BACK TO TOC Market In Review Market Overview

The trend of stable growth could be a side result of ongoing uncertainties, steered by the Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act, that are forcing the investors to focus more on the development projects. While the demand for Manhattan and Brooklyn markets stabilizes, other boroughs continue to draw the attention of the investors. Their abetment conditions are giving investors enough optimism that ROI generated in the real estate transactions will provide them with sufficient cash flow liquidity.

This trend shows that there has always been a close correlation between the socio-political events, and economic outcomes they cause; we may, to some degree, predict these outcomes and react accordingly by seizing the market opportunities and avoiding potential threats.

The long-term effects of the global COVID-19 pandemics on the real-estate market are hard to be valorized now, but will most certainly be severe, as on the economy in general. To help the U.S. economy, the government has passed a $2 trillion stimulus package, the largest in modern U.S. history, and twice the size of the 2008 bailout.

Brokers and other real estate professionals will have to comply with Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s latest executive order, work from home, and utilize online tools for sales and marketing outreach during the pandemic. This trend could potentially change how commercial real estate business will be conducted in the future, and reinforce proptech usage even after the crisis.

17 / NYC DEVELOPMENT REPORT Q1/20 BACK TO TOC Do you find yourself being busy instead of productive? Focus on calls and closing deals, and delegate the rest

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