Original Scientific Paper

doi:10.5937/jaes13-7566 Paper number: 13(2015)1, 307, 1 - 10 TRANSITION TO «GREEN» ECONOMY IN : CURRENT AND LONG-TERM CHALLENGES Irina Makarova* Federal University, Naberezhnye Chelny, Russia Rifat Khabibullin Kazan () Federal University, Naberezhnye Chelny, Russia Gennady Mavrin Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University, Naberezhnye Chelny, Russia Dmitry Zhdanov Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University, Naberezhnye Chelny, Russia Vadim Mavrin Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University, Naberezhnye Chelny, Russia Eduard Belyaev Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University, Naberezhnye Chelny, Russia Ilnar Suleymanov Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University, Naberezhnye Chelny, Russia

Nowadays, many believe that there is no way to ecological stability other than transition to «environ- mentally oriented economy». In urban areas, the main sources of pollutants are industrial enterprises and automobile transport. To reduce the adverse environmental impacts one needs special methods of air quality control. Specifically, research in this field is aimed at developing of control systems for the city transport in order to predict the environmental response to changing traffic parameters and take appropriate measures to improve the situation. In this work it is demonstrated how the method of transport system control, based on simulation modeling, has been implemented. The optimization experiment has been performed on a simulation model adjusting the parameters of parts of a city road network for adequate decision making. Model experimenting has made it possible to establish the optimal traffic density and average current rates, without exceeding the pollution quotas, and calculate the consequences of changing in the number of vehicle car fleet on city roads. The experi- ment was carried out in the city of Naberezhnye Chelny, Russia. Key words: Air, Road transport, Intensity, Maximum allowable concentration, Motorway

INTRODUCTION The quality of management is all-important and has been extensively researched because it af- Notwithstanding the benefits of recent techno- fects the stability of systems, notwithstanding logical and industrial advances, it has been in- their size or parameters, but mostly the major creasingly emphasized that the ever growing systems such as organizational, technical and volumes of mined and digested mineral resourc- social-economic ones. es promote the environment pollution, which has become a global challenge. Although being based on different methods, good management of today has opted for simulation. Although all working under the premise that The decision-making process incorporates nu- “green” economy is to be low-carbon, efficient merous internal parameters and subsystems, as in resource utilization, and socially inclusive, the well as external impacts of which many are sto- European states have different priorities. Thus, chastic and processing of much information by while the EEA states focus on sustainable con- using sophisticated algorithms. Moreover, since sumption and production (SCP), and innovation, processes in large systems are long in time, the priorities of Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, they cannot be examined under actual condi- Central Asia, and Russia are management de- tions. The quality of decisions depends on both velopment and power production [03]. * , Naberezhnye Chelny, Russia, Kazan 420008, 18 Kremlyovskaya St.; 1 [email protected] Irina Makarova - Transition to <> economy in Russia: current and long term challenges the quality of initial information and adequacy of Other harmful economic, social and ecological algorithms for its interpretation, and is controlled consequences of motor transportation include by consistency in behaviour of modeled and real air pollution, emission of hotbed gases, con- processes. sumption of nonrestorable resources, household Transition to “green” economy is unique for each inconveniences caused by adjacent highways, country, being affected by various interrelated and noise. [02] factors. However, the main trends and challeng- Engine exhaust gas also contains much lead and es have been shaped by global processes and ozone adversely affecting the health of urban are relevant for both developed and developing residents. For instance, sulfur dioxide damages countries. One of those is urbanization, which the respiratory system, causing coughing, chest is an objective process triggered by social de- pain, shortness of breath, and airway constric- mands, modes of production, and character of tion. Engine exhaust contributes to increasing the social system. As a consequence, a precipi- of lead concentration in atmosphere, proportion- tous growth of urban population, especially in ally to traffic intensity. Lead gets into surface and recent decades, has depleted the reproductive ground water. From soil it is actively accumulat- capacity of the environment in major cities. ed by vegetation so that its contents in roadside Urban growth transforms the landscape, land plants are 100 times higher than that in plants and water resources; massive industrial and growing on relatively unpolluted areas. Such communal waste affects the aquatic and ter- plants may be poisonous if used as food. restrial ecosystems. The urbanized mankind is Another urban problem is degradation of green faced with vulnerability of urban systems, migra- space caused by air pollution. In Moscow, about tion and concentration of population, low quality 20% of trees and shrubs are damaged by chloro- of habitat, loss of fertile land, and necessity of sis and necrosis. Sound pollution in cities is pro- waste disposal. A large city modifies almost all moted by ever increasing road traffic, particularly components of natural environment - the atmo- in narrow streets, and inadequate amenities in sphere, vegetation, soil, topography, drainage, isolated residential districts and squares. ground water, soil, and even the climate. Says Vladimir Drobnyak, ECOSOC (Challenges Among the most environment-offending indus- and Opportunities for Sustainable Urbanization) tries are nonferrous and ferrous metallurgy, Vice-President in follow-up to the meeting of the chemical, petrochemical, woodworking, and pulp Segment of Integration of Economic and So- and paper production. Much has been said about cial Council on 27-29 May 2014 [01]: “Cities are the deplorable state of the environment on areas emerging as a leading force in mainstreaming accommodating industrial enterprises emitting environmental responsibility and combating cli- into the atmosphere such toxic substances as mate change through integrating green technol- benzopyrene, different hydrocarbons, phenols, ogies in sustainable infrastructure, reducing the and heavy metals. carbon footprint of urban metropolises through In large cities, a significant contribution to atmo- innovative measures of reducing pollution and spheric pollution with sulphur dioxide, nitrogen generating innovative solutions to reduce en- and carbon oxides, and industrial dust comes ergy consumption. Adopting modes of public from the motor transport. As stated in a report transportation that utilize alternative sources of of the World Health Organization on traffic secu- energy such as electricity, utilizing biowaste in rity, by promoting transfer of goods and people, heating systems of municipal buildings, apply- road transportation benefits both countries and ing off-grid renewable energy systems such as individuals. It facilitates access to workplaces, solar energy panels, or integrating information economic markets, education, recreation and and communication technologies (ICTs) in the entertainment centers, and also health services management of traffic congestion are examples which, in turn, positively affects the public health, of innovative solutions that can aid in the effort both directly and indirectly. Nevertheless, grow- to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and en- ing motor traffic inevitably affects the human hancing environmental resiliency of cities [01] ”. health by causing road and transport trauma- Considering the public concern regarding the tism, respiratory diseases and diseases caused sustainability of urban territories and increasing by physical inactivity. human migration to cities worldwide, there has

2 Journal of Applied Engineering Science 13(2015)1, 307 Irina Makarova - Transition to <> economy in Russia: current and long term challenges been developed a project concept of a system transport service for the population and reducing of city management taking into account both the the negative impact of the transport complex on mobility needs of population and environmental the environment. factors [06]. Since the quality of decisions in large systems depends on the quality of information, its ad- MANAGEMENT OF TRAFFIC equate analysis, and efficient analytical tools INFRASTRUCTURE for large data arrays, it needs Decision Support The stability of traffic infrastructure in metro- Systems (DSS) combining the features and ca- politan cities depends on the performance of its pabilities of information and database manage- subsystems, including the reliability of commu- ment systems. In DSS, analysis and selection of nication therein, which in turn largely depends recommendations ensue as a result of informa- on management efficiency. Nowadays, control- tion search, data mining and retrieval from da- ling of large systems is supported by special tabases, reasoning based on precedents, simu- decision-making arrangements, expert systems lation modeling, evolutionary computation and and information management systems. These genetic algorithms, neural networks, situational systems assist in tackling of both strategic and analysis, cognitive modeling, etc. If a DSS in- tactical tasks. By wisely addressing these is- corporates artificial intelligence techniques, it is sues a city may more successfully deal with its called an intellectual DSS. A conceptual diagram economic and social problems by improving the of a DSS is presented in Figure 1.

Figure 1: The conceptual scheme of DSS The DSS are designed to suit both the tasks to 2. A dialogue system permitting the user to be solved, the available data, information and specify the desired data and select a path- knowledge, and also the system users. There way for their treatment. are three main parts in a DSS: 3. A system of models incorporating ideas, al- 1. Data system for collection and storage of in- gorithms and procedures for data processing formation obtained from internal and external and analysis. When selecting data, the user sources. is based on his/her experience, knowledge

Journal of Applied Engineering Science 13(2015)1, 307 3 Irina Makarova - Transition to <> economy in Russia: current and long term challenges

of the situation and their own needs. Data MANAGEMENT OF VEHICLE FLEET processing incorporates different procedures ranging from simple summation to statistical Since optimization for the transport system can analysis and nonlinear optimization. be achieved in two ways, i.e. by regulating the traffic current density and making vehicles more In designing of a DSS, focus is made on its intel- environmentally friendly, relevant research is be- lectual core, i.e. the simulation model. It is simu- ing conducted in two directions. Thus, traffic can lation modeling that makes possible qualitative be controlled by resorting to fiscal measures, analysis of processes, to explore the effects of such as banning on entrance to busy areas, traf- any changes and select a variant satisfying all the fic control, etc, and also through a more efficient set limits, and obtain optimal parameters. [05] use of the road network capacity, in other words, The software, developed for these purposes, en- by increasing the occupancy rate of vehicles, en- ables one to construct models that reflect real-life couraging the use of more capacious vehicles, processes whereupon to conduct virtual experi- and total renovating of the vehicle fleet. ments specifying the model time. The process Statistic analysis has revealed that large car can be researched both in a single test and in parks are more responsible for the environment a number of tests allowing selecting the optimal pollution than personal vehicles due to greater process parameters. The results will depend on annual mileage of the former. While a personal their random nature. car runs about 12000 miles/year, an average The effect here is threefold. Economy-wise, the motor van may run as many as 23000 miles/year intelligent transport systems will assist in diminish- [10]. In this work, to demonstrate the potential ing of transportation costs owing to optimized traffic benefits from transport fleet management, we routes and better utilization of vehicles. The environ- decided to analyze the subsystem of public pas- mental effect consists in reducing of pollution. Social senger vehicles from car parks (Figure 2). improvements will be represented by better air qual- ity and diminished rates of respiratory diseases.

Figure 2: Management methods of vehicles fleet

Firstly, because replacement of vehicles in car DATA MANAGEMENT IN parks occurs more often than with individual A DECISION-MAKING SUPPORT SYSTEM owners. Besides, park owners are easier moti- vated to use cars more efficiently. Since decisions are made proceeding from real data about an object, both analysis and ensuing strategic decisions require aggregated informa- tion stored in a specially created Data Warehouse

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(DW). The role of DW consists in integrating, Warehouses contain information collected from updating and coordinating of operational infor- several operative databases of On-Line Trans- mation from dissimilar sources in order to form action Processing systems (OLTP) (Figure 3). a consistent view on the object in whole. Data

Figure 3: Presentation of data in the form of OLAP-cube a) dimension “transport type”, b) measurement “time of day”

A multidimensional intellectual data model is in- 2. Data caching and conversion to a multidi- stalled in the traffic control centre for collecting, mensional cube. storing and formalizing of road network param- 3. Imaging of the constructed cube by means of eters. a cross chart or diagrams, etc. The analytical cube has the following parame- In general, one cube may be connected to an ters: arbitrary amount of mappings. 1. Model, make and type of a car engine. The advantage of this technology lies in the fact 2. Season of the year. that applications for the multidimensional analy- 3. Time of the day. sis meet the requirements of the so-called FASMI 4. Average useful life of passing cars. test (Fast Analysis of Shared Multidimensional Information) including the following parameters: 5. Traffic intensity. I. Fast, i.e. fast response of the system (not 6. Movement direction. more than 5 seconds), 7. Average speed of traffic current. II. Analysis - full-functional analysis achieved in 8. Length of traffic jams and number of stops the most convenient way, for public transport. III. Shared - multiuser access, protection of in- 9. Total number of cars passing per hour. formation, etc., 10.Value of emissions to atmosphere IV. Multidimensional – a multidimensional con- (CO, NOx, etc.). ceptual data presentation as cubes with hier- 11. Number of road accidents during the obser- archical measurements, vation period. V. Information – access to data in required vol- For correct simulation of real-life situations it is ume, wherever it is necessary. necessary to have immediate information com- Storing of information as an OLAP cube and its ing to the Control Centre in the real-time mode subsequent processing allows estimating more from different sources, such as servers of munic- accurately the dynamics of street network pa- ipal enterprises and units for on-line monitoring rameters (number of vehicles, road section, sea- of road situations (GPS/GLONASS systems). son of the year, average speed, availability of The operation algorithm includes: traffic lights, etc.). Packages of formalized data 1. Data acquisition in the form of a flat chart or are continuously transferred to the simulation results of SQL inquiry. system for changing of model parameters. By analyzing the information of city transport sys-

Journal of Applied Engineering Science 13(2015)1, 307 5 Irina Makarova - Transition to <> economy in Russia: current and long term challenges tem parameters varying within a day, day of the the highways. As a result, there were examined week, and month of the year, one can predict the traffic currents on 43 highways with 154 pro- similar road situations. Furthermore, modeling of tocols of vehicle current composition and intensity workarounds with changing system parameters drawn for each highway section.[08; 04; 09] facilitates selecting of the optimal ones and build- Analysis of the protocol data has revealed that ve- ing a knowledge base of best solutions at estab- hicles in residential areas are mostly represented lished traffic and environment parameters. Such by passenger cars (85-95%), whereas the share databases are used for on-line making of man- of freight transport does not exceed 3-4 %. agement decisions in the case of emergency. On industrial areas and roads of federal and re- RESULTS AND DISCUSSION publican importance, the share of freight trans- port in the traffic may achieve 10-20 %. Accord- Monitoring of urban airshed ingly, the passenger cars contribution to the total In the city of Naberezhnye Chelny, Russia, mo- traffic intensity is 60-80%. tor vehicles are the main pollutants of the envi- According to the result of field surveying of the ronment, all major stationary sources of pollution structure and intensity of transport current, the being located outside or along the city boundary. load on the city highways is unbalanced, with Spatial planning of the city was performed with peaks of intensity at different motorways varying respect to the natural landscape: the city faces within a day. the expanses of the water storage For the industrial zone, the traffic current is the basin, the Shelninsky Bay, and forests on their most intensive between 6:30 and 8:00 am and shores. The city planning pattern represents an 04:30 to 06:00 pm, that is, before the workday open linear structure and land use of the “clas- and soon after it is over. During the rest of the sical” type, with parallel locating of industrial, day, the highways are loaded but slightly. The residential, and suburban recreation areas. The same traffic intensity was observed in the direc- transport frame of the city is made up by longitu- tion of the industrial area (Vahitovskiy, Avtoza- dinal highways connecting the residential areas, vodskoy, and Druzhby Narodov avenues, and so that the road and street network is rectangu- Koroleva St.). lar. The biggest longitudinal thoroughfare incor- Having analyzed the road layout, the purpose porates Musa Jalil, Naberezhnjchelninsky, and of motor roads, and information about the traffic Mira Avenues (Figure 4). [13] load, we selected the following 5 road portions for instrumental measurement of ambient air pol- lution on the following roadside clear zones: 1) Orlovskoe Koltso (part of M-7 federal high- way, site №1). 2) Naberezhnochelninskiy avenue (at its junc- tion with Akademika Koroleva St., site №2). 3) Mira Avenue (to the junction with Vakhitova Avenue, site №3). 4) Adelya Kutuya Street (Yashlek housing es- tate, site №4). 5) Naberezhnaya G. Tukaya (opposite the apartment block No 10/64, site №5) Figure 4: Plan-scheme of the location of points of the Sampling of atmospheric air was carried out control of atmospheric air within the sanitation gap in the immediate vicinity of roads, mainly from road in Naberezhnye Chelny downwind, during the morning and evening rush In order to determine the level of atmospheric hours and, on the Orlovskoe Koltso, during the pollution and the major offending sites in Na- lunch time. berezhnye Chelny, we calculated vehicles emis- For each site there were obtained 2 duplicate sions by using the known methods.[08; 26; 27]. samples, so that the total number of samples was These consisted in calculating of the traffic inten- 600. Both the initial working solutions (600) and sity during one year through field surveying on 300 blank solutions were prepared for analysis

6 Journal of Applied Engineering Science 13(2015)1, 307 Irina Makarova - Transition to <> economy in Russia: current and long term challenges at a chromatograph with a photoionization detec- 1) Traffic intensity vs pollutant concentration tor and photometer. Analysis for the presence of (Figure 5); carbon monoxide has required the obtaining and 2) Atmospheric air temperature vs pollutant processing of more than 300 chromatograms. concentration (Figure 6); According to the findings of instrumental mea- 3) Wind speed vs pollutant concentration surement, the following dependencies were es- (Figure 7). tablished:

Figure 5: The dependence of the coefficient of concentration on the intensity of the movement

It should be noted that relationships with a cor- transport intensity and air temperature (Figure relation coefficient of 0.74 and higher were ob- 5). Moreover, at regularly high C/ACLms values tained for concentration coefficients from 0.3 there was observed a noticeable correlation be- upwards for nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and tween the wind speed and nitrogen and carbon carbon monoxide, and were found to depend on oxide concentrations.

Figure 6: The dependence of the concentration coefficient on temperature of air

Figure 7: The dependence of the concentration coefficient on the wind speed Journal of Applied Engineering Science 13(2015)1, 307 7 Irina Makarova - Transition to <> economy in Russia: current and long term challenges

Systematization of the results of instrumental For more detailed analysis of the area, we con- measurements, taking into account the wind di- structed a simulation model using the AnyLogic rection on urban areas, has proved impossible software (Russia). The following factors were due to volatility of wind direction. taken into account: I. Geometry of the road network portion; Simulation modeling of the city transport system II. Traffic density; III. Intensity of pedestrian traffic along traffic Using the maps of pollutant dispersion from station- lanes; ary sources, derived as a result of field observations, IV. Pollutants actually emitted by motor vehicles we highlighted the problem areas, one of which is a and emission quotas; complex junction formed by intersecting Mira, Druzh- ba Narodov and Syuyumbike Avenues (Figure 8). V. Modes of traffic lights operation at road por- tions preceding and following the portion be- ing analyzed. A constraint for the model was the value of the emission quota that was not to be exceeded:

(1)

A structural scheme of the model of traffic cur- rent organization is presented in Figure 9. The scheme draws on both the road library items (Road Network, Car Source, Car Dispose, Car- MoveTo) and the main library items (Hold, Delay Figure 8: Decoupling scheme simulated road network Queue, SelectOutput).

Figure 9: Circuit model of the organization of traffic on the site

The vehicles behaviour on the road was mod- into account is gear changing at different road eled using a Java class “Car”. segments. It is estimated by assigning a speed The Road Network block assigns the maximum value in the Car Move To block. Transport cur- speed of vehicles, swivel and U-turn speed, rent is generated using Car Source blocks. maximum and minimum distance to the vehicle In the model, cars are moving in keeping with in front, and the distance and time to for warn- movement parameters set in Car Move To ing of rearrangement. Another parameter taken blocks. Distributing of the traffic in different di-

8 Journal of Applied Engineering Science 13(2015)1, 307 Irina Makarova - Transition to <> economy in Russia: current and long term challenges rections occurs in Select Output blocks. Queue simulation model was carried out using an Opt- modeling at traffic lights, crossroads and U-turns Quest device and metaheuristic methods. At the is performed using Queue blocks. Hold blocks first stage of the experiment, we determined the simulate the operation of traffic lights and traffic optimal parameters for the traffic current, such control at road curves and U-turns. The motion as density, intensity and speed, falling within the of public transport is simulated by Delay blocks quota for pollutant emissions (Figure 11). specifying delays at bus stops. Traffic lights and Representing a confluence of two main city av- traffic motion at U-turns are controlled using enues, the site in question accommodates sev- state diagrams. eral public transport routes connecting the city’s newer and older parts. Therefore optimizing of OPTIMIZATION EXPERIMENTS the traffic current parameters should primarily IN THE MODEL involve improving of the route network. Another Simulation of traffic parameters established as a approach consists in using of buses with greater result of field observations has made it clear that capacity, which will both diminish the traffic cur- congested traffic produces carbon monoxide and rent density and reduce emissions of harmful nitrogen dioxide by far exceeding the ACL levels substances. Similar methods are described in (Figure 10). The optimization experiment on a works. [07, 11, 12]

Figure 10: The view of the simulation model of the considered section of the road network

Figure 11: Optimization experiment

Journal of Applied Engineering Science 13(2015)1, 307 9 Irina Makarova - Transition to <> economy in Russia: current and long term challenges

At the second stage of optimization experiment systems for the benefit of safety and the there were determined the vehicular emissions. sustainable development of territories. Jour- While preserving the original parameters, we re- nal of International Scientific Publications: placed a part of the public transport with more Ecology&Safety. 2013, 7(3), 189-199. environmentally friendly vehicles. This consider- 6) Molina, Mario J.; Molina, Luisa T. Megacities ably reduced the volumes of emitted pollutants. and Atmospheric Pollution. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association. 2004, CONCLUSION 54(6), 644-680. The proposed solution for improving the quality 7) Naoto, M.; Watanabe, T.; Feng, J. Route Op- of ambient air in urban areas is based on opti- timization Using Q-Learning for On-Demand mization of a city transport system parameters. Bus Systems. Knowledge-Based Intelligent This was achieved by via simulation modeling Information and Engineering Systems. 2008, taking into account a large number of parame- 5178, 567-574. ters, both within and outside the system, many of 8) OND-86. Method of calculating the concen- the latter being stochastic. The model has been trations in the air of harmful substances con- tested using the simulation model analysis of tained in industrial emissions; Gidrometeoiz- part of a road network and comparing the results dat: Leningrad, 1987; 35. with real system parameters. The recommenda- 9) Petruhin, V.; Vazhensky, V.; Donchenko, V. tions include rearranging of the public transport Pollution of urban atmosphere by vehicles routes and changing over to vehicles running on and environmental risks to public health: gas motor fuel. methodology and experience ratings / Trans- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS port: science, technology, management. 1996, 9. 33-35. This work was funded by the subsidy allocated 10) Reich, Alicia A. Transportation Efficiency. to Kazan Federal University for the project part Strategic Planning for Energy and the Envi- of the state assignment in the sphere of scientific ronment. 2012, 32(2), 32-43. activities. 11) Saharidis, G.K.D.; Dimitropoulos, C.; Skordi- REFERENCES lis, E. Minimizing waiting times at transi- tional nodes for public bus transportation in 1) Economic and Social Council. Integration Seg- Greece. An International Journal “Operation- ment: Sustainable Urbanization. 2014, 1-8. al Research”. 2013, 14(3), 341-359. 2) Global Status Report On Road Safety. Time For 12) Shimamoto, H.; Murayama, N.; Fujiwara, A. Action. World Health Organization. 2009, 287. Evaluation of an existing bus network using 3) Horton, B.; Ulrich Speck, S. Green Economy. a transit network optimisation model: a case Europe’s environment: An Assessment of study of the Hiroshima City Bus network. Assessments; Publication Ofiice of the Euro- Transportation. J. 2010, 37(5). 801–823. pean Union: Luxembourg, 2011; 92-138. 13) The general plan of the city of Naberezhnye 4) Hygienic requirements for air quality residen- Chelny: Materials on the study of the project. tial areas. Sanitary - epidemiological rules Explanatory note. Tatinvestgrazhdanproekt: and norms. SanPin 2.1.6.98300; Russian Kazan, 2009, 140. Ministry of Health: Moscow, 2000; 47. Paper sent to revision: 19.01.2015. 5) Makarova, I.; Khabibullin, R.; Belyaev, E.; Zhdanov, D. Intellectualization of transport Paper ready for publication: 09.03.2015.

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